Global Financial Credit Crunch Will it lead to a by grapieroo9

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Global Financial Credit Crunch: Will it lead to a Global Oil and Gas
Supply Crunch'
Published on July 2009

                                                                                                                Report Summary

Global Financial Credit Crunch: Will it lead to a Global Oil and Gas Supply Crunch'


Summary


Lower commodity prices, falling demand and non-availability of capital have been hampering investments in the global oil and gas
industry. Projects that were feasible a year ago, when oil and gas prices had been high seem economically unfeasible under the
current circumstances. Globally, till date, over 50 energy projects have been delayed or abandoned. The postponement or scrapping
of key projects can lead to a supply crunch across the global oil and gas industry when the global economic environment improves
and the demand starts increasing.


Scope


- The report will analyse the key projects (across the oil and gas value chain) that are getting postponed/delayed as a result of the
current financial crises. The report will also present the long term demand - supply scenarios and the impact of the delayed projects
on the long term supply of oil and gas. The report will also analyse the impact of delayed projects on the long term competitiveness of
oil and gas companies.


Reasons to buy


- Develop business strategies with the help of specific insights about the global financial crunch.
- Understand how the scarcity of funds in the international market is going to affect new investments in new oil and gas projects and
also ongoing operations of major oil and gas companies across the globe.
- Increase future revenue and profitability with the help of insights on critical success factors in the global oil and gas market that is
witnessing a reduced funding scenario.
- Be ahead of competition by keeping yourself abreast of all the latest investments and projects in the global oil and gas industry.




                                                                                                                 Table of Content

1 Table of Contents


2



1.1 List of Tables


4



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1.2 List of Figures


5
2 Executive Summary 6
2.1 Impact of the Credit Crunch and the Economic Slowdown on Oil and Gas Investments 6
2.2 Future Economic Recovery and Supply Crunch Outlook 7
3 Global Financial Crisis, Recession And Its Impact On Investments In The Global Oil And Gas Industry 9
3.1 Global Financial and the Credit Crisis 9
3.2 Recession in the US and Euro Zone and the Global Economic Slowdown 10
3.3 Credit Crunch and Falling Revenues Leading To a Decrease in Capital Expenditure 11
3.4 Effects of the Global Economic and the Credit Crisis on Oil and Gas Industry Investment - Short and Medium Term Outlook 12
3.5 Key Issues Affecting the Energy Investment 13
3.6 Impact on Oil and Gas Investments 15
3.7 Industry Implications of the Reduced Investments 25
4 Key Industry Challenges Augmenting a Future Supply Crunch 30
4.1 Resource Nationalism and the Inability of the IOC's to Access Low Cost Reserves 30
4.2 Subsidized Product Prices in Some Countries Leading To Uneven Effect on Demand 32
4.3 Economic Slowdown Followed By a Quick Economic Recovery 32
4.4 Environmental Concerns Are Now Major Drivers of Energy Policy 34
4.5 Shortages in Labor and Materials Along With Long Lead Times of Projects Have an Indirect Effect on Supplies 35
4.6 Shortage in Refining Capacity Might Lead To Reduced Supply of End Products 36
4.7 Increasing Security Threats over Oil and Gas Industry Assets Will Increase Uncertainty of Supplies 38
5 Road To Recovery ' Scenarios Of Economic And Energy Demand Recovery 39
5.1 Comparison of the Current Crude Oil Market Scenario with Previous Market Disruptions 39
5.2 Future Economic Recovery and Supply Crunch Outlook 41
5.3 Scenarios of Future World Oil Markets and A Possible Supply Crunch between 2013 And 2015 41
6 Energy Policies Will Play A Major Role In The Future Supply ' Demand Scenario 49
6.1 Avoiding a Supply Crunch through Policy Action 49
6.2 Effects of Supply Crunch and Price Spike on Policy 51
7 Major Upstream And Downstream Projects Affecting the Future Supply Capacity 52
7.1 Exploration and Production Projects 52
7.2 Refining Projects 53
8 Appendix 55
8.1 Methodology 55
8.2 Unit of Measure 57
8.3 Contact Us 57
8.4 About GlobalData 58
8.5 Disclaimer 58


1.1 List of Tables




Table 1: Actual and Forecasted Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price, 2008 - 2012 10
Table 2: Global Actual and Forecasted GDP, 2007 - 2010 13
Table 3: OPEC Spare Capacity (million barrels per day) and Brent Crude Oil Price (US $ per barrel), 2000 ' 2009 15
Table 4: Capital Expenditure Plan of Major E&P Companies, 2008 ' 2009 17
Table 5: Major Global Upstream Delayed/Cancelled/Suspended Projects 19
Table 6: Global Refinery Delayed/Cancelled/Suspended Projects 22
Table 7: Global LNG, Pipeline and Storage delayed/suspended Projects 24


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Table 8: Oil and Gas Industry M&A Deals Activity by Volume and Value, Dec 08 ' May 09 27
Table 9: Top M&A Deals, 2009 27
Table 10: Oil and Gas Industry Asset Transactions by Deal Volume and Value, Dec 08 ' May 09 28
Table 11: Top Asset Transactions, 2009 29
Table 12: World Oil and Gas Proved Reserves, 2008 31
Table 13: World Energy Related Carbon Emissions, billion metric tones, 2005 ' 2010 35
Table 14: Global Refining Capacity Country-Wise (MMTPA), 2000-2015 37
Table 15: Demand and Maximum Production Capacity Growth Scenarios 44
Table 16: High Growth or Supply Crunch Scenario 46
Table 17: Normal Growth Scenario ' Medium Possibility of a Supply Crunch 47
Table 18: Low Growth Scenario ' Prolonged High Production Capacity 48


1.2 List of Figures




Figure 1: Demand and Maximum Production Capacity Growth Scenarios 7
Figure 2: OPEC Spare Capacity (million barrels per day) and Brent Crude Oil Price (US $ per barrel), 2000 ' 2009 15
Figure 3: Global Monthly Rig Count, January 2008 ' May 2009 21
Figure 4: Oil and Gas Industry M&A Deals Activity by Volume and Value, Dec 08 ' May 09 26
Figure 5: Oil and Gas Industry Asset Transactions by Deal Volume and Value, Dec 08 ' May 09 28
Figure 6:         World Oil and Gas Proved Reserves, 2008 31
Figure 7:         World Energy Related Carbon Emissions, billion metric tones, 2005 ' 2010 34
Figure 8:         US Refining Capacity, Increase In Desulphurization Capacity, 2000-08 37
Figure 9: Historical Crude Oil Prices with the Chronology of Events, 1970 - 2008 39
Figure 10: Demand and Maximum Production Capacity Growth Scenarios 44
Figure 11: GlobalData Methodology 55




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