Interurban Passenger transport planification

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					                              SECRETARÍA DE ESTADO DE INFRAESTRUCTURAS Y PLANIFICACIÓN
                 MINISTERIO
                 DE FOMENTO    DIRECCIÓN GENERAL
                               DE PLANIFICACIÓN Y                CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS
                               COORDINACIÓN TERRITORIAL          Y EXPERIMENTACIÓN
                                                                 DE OBRAS PÚBLICAS




                                           Encuentro:
                                        “Intermodalidad
                                          de viajeros”
                                        Interurban passenger transport
                                                 planification
                                                Alain Sauvant


Service
                                    Madrid, 4 de noviembre de 2004
économique
et statistique

                                                                                      Alain SAUVANT
                 Interurban passenger
                 transport planification
                 An overview of methods currently
                 used in France



Service
économique
et statistique
                    Outline of presentation

                 Multimodal national monitoring
                 scheme
                 Multimodal strategic corridors and
                 nodes monitoring scheme
                 2025 traffic forecasts
                 2025 infrastructure maps

Service
économique
et statistique

                                                      Alain SAUVANT
                 National monitoring scheme

                 To follow aggregate transport policy
                 relevant indicators in France
                 Such as national road traffic, rail
                 transport, prices, quality of service,
                 modal split or the environment
                 Passenger and freight
                 With « out of track » indicators
Service
économique
et statistique

                                                      Alain SAUVANT
                                                        Passenger cars
                                                  (veh.km on all road networks)
                                         650
    Cars all networks (Billion veh.km)




                                         600


                                         550
                                                                                 Real
                                         500                                     Central forecast
                                                                                 Model on real data
                                         450


                                         400
                                                                               Draft document
                                         350
Service
économique                                 1990    1995   2000   2005   2010
et statistique

                                                                                          Alain SAUVANT
                                                 Road transport CO2
                                                     emissions
                                 150

                                 145
    Emissions CO2 Road (MtCO2)




                                 140

                                 135

                                 130
                                                                           Real
                                 125                                       Central forecast
                                                                           Model on real data
                                 120

                                 115

                                 110                                    Draft document
                                 105

                                 100
Service
économique                         1990   1995     2000   2005   2010
et statistique

                                                                                    Alain SAUVANT
                   Strategic corridors and
                  nodes monitoring scheme
                 To follow transport policy relevant
                 indicators in a given corridor or node
                 in France
                 Passenger and freight
                 Such as traffic, prices, quality of
                 service, environment, safety,
                 accessibility
Service
économique
et statistique

                                                      Alain SAUVANT
                 Modal split in 2000




Service
économique
et statistique

                                       Alain SAUVANT
                 Frequencies by mode from
                           Paris




Service
économique
et statistique

                                       Alain SAUVANT
                 Access to airports and TGV
                      stations in Paris




Service
économique
et statistique

                                         Alain SAUVANT
                 Access to European capitals by
                   air from the French regions




Service
économique
et statistique

                                            Alain SAUVANT
                 Punctuality from Paris
                       (rail+air)




Service
économique
et statistique

                                          Alain SAUVANT
                 Passengers per plane or
                         TGV




Service
économique
et statistique

                                       Alain SAUVANT
                 Noise levels at CDG airport




Service
économique
et statistique

                                          Alain SAUVANT
                 Passenger flows across the
                        Pyrenees




Service
économique
et statistique

                                         Alain SAUVANT
                 Road accidents and
                      fatalities




Service
économique
et statistique

                                      Alain SAUVANT
                 Cross-channel passenger
                          flows




Service
économique
et statistique

                                      Alain SAUVANT
                 Passenger flows and modal
                            split




Service
économique
et statistique

                                        Alain SAUVANT
                   Number of trains
                 (passenger+freight)




Service
économique
et statistique

                                       Alain SAUVANT
                 Interurban NOx emissions
                    (passenger +freight)




Service
économique
et statistique

                                       Alain SAUVANT
                 Journey times across
                       France




Service
économique
et statistique

                                        Alain SAUVANT
                 Access to major European
                          capitals




Service
économique
et statistique

                                       Alain SAUVANT
                 Quality of access to major
                   road network nodes




Service
économique
et statistique

                                         Alain SAUVANT
                 Quality of access to major
                      railway stations




Service
économique
et statistique

                                         Alain SAUVANT
                 Quality of access to airports




Service
économique
et statistique

                                           Alain SAUVANT
                 Quality of access (rail+air)




Service
économique
et statistique

                                           Alain SAUVANT
                     2025 Traffic forecasts

                 Integrated multimodal approach
                 Econometric models
                 Passenger and goods traffic
                 Environment
                 To be used for project appraisal
                 (rate of return evaluation) in all
                 modes
Service
économique
et statistique

                                                      Alain SAUVANT
                      Macroeconomic and
                    transport policy context
                 GDP growth in France = 1,9 %
                 per year
                 Ageing population
                 Oil price : 35 $/baril in 2025
                 Exchange rate in 2025 : 1€ = 1$
                 Increase of passenger diesel oil
                 prices
Service
économique
et statistique

                                                Alain SAUVANT
                       Towards smaller road traffic
                                growth
                 % average
                 annual growth         1980 - 2002   2002 – 2025


                 National road           3,5 %         1,8 %
                 network


                 Out of which : Toll     6,2 %         2,8 %
                 motorways
Service
économique
et statistique

                                                               Alain SAUVANT
                                  Slower domestic air
                                   transport growth
                 % average annual                 1980 - 2002                         2002 - 2025
                 growth

                 Domestic                              4,4 %                            1,7 %
                 passenger air
                 transport
                                                 Modélisation logistique
                                      de la diffusion du transport aérien intérieur




Service
économique       1960     1965      1970       1975      1980       1985       1990       1995       2000
et statistique
                   Rapport trafic aérien / dépenses de consommation des ménages           Modèle logistique
                   (réel)
                                                                                                              Alain SAUVANT
                        Continuing passenger rail
                            transport growth
                                         Average annual growth
                                                 in %
                 Pass-km             1980 - 2002       2002 - 2025

                 Rail                   1,5 %             1,8 %

                 Out of which :           ns             > 2,6 %
                 TGV (high
                 speed)

                 Around 1500 additional km of high speed lines, stable
                 rail prices, increase of taxes on passenger diesel
Service
économique
et statistique

                                                                         Alain SAUVANT
                                            Public sector financing
                                           needs by modes per year
                                     Public investments per mode (main interurban terrestrial)
                                                         annual averages
                                                in France (excluding user funding)
                             5,0
                                                                 Real               Needs
                             4,5
   Billion euros (current)




                             4,0
                             3,5
                             3,0                                                              Total Roads
                             2,5                                                              Total Rail
                             2,0                                                              Total Waterways
                             1,5
                             1,0
                             0,5
                             0,0
                                   1989 to 1993   1994 to 1999   2000 to 2002    Estimation
                                                                                needs 2003-
                                                                                   2020
Service
économique
et statistique
                                                           Source : from Audit IGF/CGPC
                                                                                                    Alain SAUVANT
                                                   State funding needs
                                      Investments (annual averages) in France : State funding

                              2,5
                                                              Real                   Needs
    Billion euros (current)




                              2,0


                              1,5                                                              Total Roads
                                                                                               Total Rail
                              1,0                                                              Total Waterways


                              0,5


                              0,0
                                    1989 to 1993   1994 to 1999   2000 to 2002    Estimation
                                                                                 needs 2003-
                                                                                    2020
Service
économique
et statistique
                                                   Source : from Audit IGF/CGPC
                                                                                                     Alain SAUVANT
                   New infrastructure plans

                 Common standards for all project
                 evaluations in all modes
                 Instruction de Robien – Boiteux
                 commission report
                 A mix of project evaluation and land
                 planning considerations

Service
économique
et statistique

                                                    Alain SAUVANT
                  Government infrastructure
                       plan decisions
                 CIADT of december 2003
                 Infrastructure plan of 2025
                 Established a new agency for
                 multimodal funding




Service
économique
et statistique

                                                Alain SAUVANT
                 National road infrastructures
                           by 2025




Service
économique
et statistique

                                           Alain SAUVANT
                 Other terrestrial modes’
                 infrastructures by 2025




Service
économique
et statistique

                                        Alain SAUVANT
                              Outlook

                 Towards strategic corridors and
                 nodes 2025 traffic and environment
                 forecasts
                 Towards an urban transport and
                 territories monitoring scheme



Service
économique
et statistique

                                                      Alain SAUVANT
                      Link to web sites of
                      monitoring schemes
         Strategic nodes and corridors monitoring schemes
        http://www.equipement.gouv.fr/statistiques/analyses/etudes/
        transpor/indicateurs2004/somm_indicateurs2004.htm
         National monitoring scheme
  http://www.equipement.gouv.fr/statistiques/analyses/etudes/etudes_.htm




Service
économique
et statistique

                                                                 Alain SAUVANT