Market development and competitiveness of PV solar electricity by umsymums32

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									                                        Market Conference




    Market development and competitiveness of
                PV solar electricity

                  Roland Barthez
                     TENESOL


1
                                                  Market Conference




    WHO is EPIA?
    • Exists since 1985
    • 74 members: 58 full + 16 associate
    • 58 full: manufacturers on the overall value chain
    • Budget 2005: 1.000.000 € (EC 1/3 + 2/3 members
      and other incomes)
    • Secretariat in Brussels - the heart of EUROPE :
      5 permanent employees speaking 13 languages
    • 6 Board members elected for 3 years




2
                                                                 Market Conference




       EPIA and its members
    EPIA represents 95% of the photovoltaic European
    industry, covering the whole production chain.
    •Silicon feedstock: Wacker …
    •Wafers and Ingots: Crystallox, Scanwafer, PV Silicon, Pillar, Podolsky …
    •Cells: Q-cells, BP Solar, Isofoton, Shell Solar, Deutsche Solar,…
    •Modules: RWE Schott Solar, Photowatt, Photovoltech…
    •Systems: Tenesol, Naps Systems, Conergy, Phoenix,…
    •Inverters: SMA, Philips, Sunways, Fronius…




3
                                                                                                                                       Market Conference



                                  World PV Market Size and
                                  Application Segmentation

                         1200

                         1000
    Market Size in MWp




                          800
                                                                                     40 % p.a.
                          600                                                                                                                  63 % p.a.

                          400

                          200
                                                                                                                                              18 % p.a.
                             0

                                         1998                  1999                  2000             2001            2002      2003   2004

                                                                              Off-Grid & Consumer                        on-Grid

                     Towards an Effective European Industrial Policy for PV.ppt / 05.06.2004 / Rapp   @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH




4
                                                                                                                                                           4
                                                     Market Conference

      Market Segments
    Off-Grid Industrial    Consumer     90 MW / 8%
                                        20 MW / 2%
                                                          Economically
                                        90 MW / 9%           viable




    Off-Grid Residential     On-Grid
                                       800 MW / 80%     Dependant on
                                                        market support
                                                          programs




                                                        Source: Strategies
                                                        Unlimited
                                       Market in 2004


5
                                                             Market Conference


    Competitiveness of PV Solar
    Electricity

    • proven in the three segments:
       – industrial off-grid
       – consumer
       – rural electrification

    • coming soon in grid-connected systems
       – First, in local replacement of peak tariff electricity kWh in
         liberalized southern OECD countries (… 2010 … 2015)
       – Second, the same in more northern OECD countries (…
         2020 … 2025)


6
                                                                                                                       Market Conference


    Different World PV Market Projections
                                                           Different World PV Market Projections


                               6000



                               5000
                                                                                                          Sarasin Studie 2004, Cell
                                                                                                          Production

                                                                                                          EPIA Roadmap 10.2004
      installed MWp per year




                               4000

                                                                                                          Strategies Unlimited 06.2004

                               3000
                                                                                                          Solarbuzz 2005


                               2000                                                                       CLSA 07.2004




                               1000



                                  0
                                      2003   2004   2005   2006     2007     2008      2009        2010




7
                                                                             Market Conference



        Point of time for competitiveness of grid
        connected PV Solar Electricity without support


    -   Cost and price decrease for technology driven PV solar
        electricity systems
          • experience curves
          • technology roadmap

    -   Cost and price increase for conventional electricity
          • depletion of fuel
          • internalization of external cost (CO2, … )
          • price differentiation of peak and bulk electricity in truly liberalized
                      markets

    -   Degree of correlation between times of peak power demand
        (high price) and delivery of PV produced electricity


8
                                                                                                                                      Market Conference




    Price Experience Curve for PV Modules
                                                                               100
                                                                                                                History




                                                             €/Wp Modulpreis
                                                                                10
                            Forecast

                           10                                                            20 % price decrease by doubling cumulative volume
                                                                                 1
                                                                                     1             10            100           1000          10000
     €/W p M odule Price




                                                                                                         MWp accumulated




                            1
                                                                                                                   Experience
                                                                                                                       factor
                                                                                                                          15%
                                 500 MWp/a   3500 MWp/a                        33 GWp/a             300 GWp/a
                                    2002        2010                                                                      18%
                                                                                 2020                  2030

                           0,1
                                 1             10                               100                 1000               10000
                                                          GWp accumulated
9
                                                                   Market Conference



     Price decrease for electricity from grid
     connected PV Solar electricity systems
           €/kWh
            1,0


                              900 h/a:
            0,8             0,60 €/kWh



                                1800 h/a:
            0,6                0,30 €/kWh



            0,4
                                                Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH




            0,2



            0,0
              1990   2000   2010         2020       2030             2040
10
                                                                                       Market Conference


     Competitiveness
     Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices
                                           €/kWh
                                            1.0
                                                                900 h/a:
                                                              0,60 €/kWh
                                            0.8
                                                                    1800 h/a:
                                                                   0,30 €/kWh
                                            0.6

                                            0.4

             Photovoltaics                  0.2
             Utility peak power
                                            0.0
             Bulk power
                                              1990   2000   2010       2020     2030   2040

     Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH



11
                                                                                                                             Market Conference

     Competitiveness
     Correlation between Daily PV Power Production and
     Energy Consumption of an Office Building in Spain
                                                                           24h-Energy Profile
                                                                                                Solar Energy
      Electrical Energy [arb. units]




                                                                                  Fed-In
                                                                                  Energy



                                                                                                Energy consumption of building




                                                                                                   Electricity supplied by
                                          Electricity supplied by                                  Utility
                                          Utility
                                       0:00




                                                                    6:00




                                                                                     12:00




                                                                                                     18:00




                                                                                                                               24:00
                                                Low Tariff                   High Tariff             Low Tariff



12
                                                                                          Market Conference



        Historical Market Growth of the
        Solar Electricity Industry by Region

                                    1200

                                    1000
                 Shipments in MWp




                                    800

                                    600

                                    400

                                    200

                                      0
                                           1998   1999    2000   2001   2002   2003   2004e

                                                         JP   GER   USA   ROW
     Source: PV News & Strategies Unlimited



13
                                                                                   Market Conference




         EU PV Market 2004
                                              Luxem burg; 13;   Spain; 11,79;
                                                   3%               3%
                                                                                France; 5,87;
                                                                                    1%
                                                                                           Holland; 4,3;
                                                                                                1%

                                                                                            Italy; 4,3;
                                                                                                1%
     In 2004 363 MW were
     installed in Germany,                                                                Austria; 3;
                                                                                             1%
     which represented 89%
     of the European PV                                                                ROE; 5,2;
     market                                                                              1%


                             Germ any; 363;
                                 89%




14
                                                                 Market Conference




      World PV Market

                2003                             2004
                         ROW
                         16%                            ROW
                                                        14%
                                      Japan
                                       30%
      Japan                                                      USA
       39%                      USA                               9%
                                11%




                                                        Europe
                       Europe
                                                         47%
     MW = 574           34%
                                      MW = 928



15
                                                     Market Conference




              World PV Market


                    2003              2004        ▲03-
              %        MW       %        MW        04
     Japan    39%      219      30%      278      27%
     Europe   34%      197      47%      437      122%
     USA      11%          66   9%           83   26%
     ROW      16%          92   14%      130      41%
     Total             574               928      62%




16
                                                                          Market Conference




          World PV Market
          525                                                             1050

          450                                                             900

          375                                                             750

          300                                                             600
      W




                                                                                  W
     M




                                                                                 M
          225                                                             450

          150                                                             300

          75                                                              150

           0                                                              0
                1998   1999       2000      2001     2002   2003   2004

                          Total          Japan     Europe   USA


                                                        World PV Market 2004 = 928 MW


17
                                                                                         Market Conference


              Market Data Europe including the
              100,000 Rooftop Program / Feed-in
              Tariff (EEG) in Germany
                            450
                            40
     Yearly Installed MWp




                             0
                            350
                             30                      EEG
                             0
                            250    100.000-Dächer-
                            200    Programm KfW
                            150
                            100
                             50
                              0
                                  1998     1999      2000    2001     2002       2003        2004e

                                                     DE     EU without DE

                                                                      Source: IEA PVPS
18
                                                                    Market Conference




     Feed-in law as an industry political action to
     reach competitiveness for the European industry
     of new technologies

      New Technology
      • Global for production and application
      • Two digit growth rates at least over two decades
      • High-tech production at industrial location, later move of downstream
        value added steps
      • Relevance for electricity market
      • Prove of competitivenes within two decades

      Industry political action
      • No budgetary means but long-term secured financing
      • No subsidy for industry but support for end-customer

19
                                                              Market Conference



     EU directive directed to the contribution
     of renewable energies to the electricity
     production in Europe in 2010


      Target 2010   22 % from ca. 3500 TWh (≡ 770 TWh !)


      Status 2003   ca. 12 % (mainly "old" hydro,increasing
                    wind)


      Remaining gap has to be closed by "new" renewables
      (wind, "small" hydro, biomass, geothermal, PV solar
      electricity)



20
                                                                                   Market Conference

     Development prediction of worldwide
     electricity capacity in relation to PV solar
     electricity contribution
     10,000
          10.000
                                                                                   35,000

                    100 %
                               worldwide electricity generating capacity




                                                                                            TWh / @ 3.500h load factor
      1,000
         1.000                                                                     3,500

                    10 %

          100
            100                                                                    350
          GW




                       1%
           10  10
                                                                                   35
      1




               1                                                                   3.5
                                          PV
      0
                            +30%p.a.           +25%p.a.

               2000
                2000                   2010
                                        2010              2020
                                                           2020            2030
                                                                            2030
                                                 Year

21
                                    Market Conference




     Thank you for your attention   !




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