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Final Swine / H1Ni Flu

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Final Swine / H1Ni Flu Powered By Docstoc
					Tyler Lewis Sarah Delaney Ryan Clifford Kevin Gerhart Frank Castronovo Pat Lynch

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The new H1N1 (Swine Flu) strain is based primarily on an unusual virus that has been circulating widely in pigs since the mid-1990s. The H1N1 strain mixed with two other strains to create a triple strain virus thus creating the SWINE FLU.

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 When a Swine flu virus infects a cell, it breaks down into its eight component genes and invades the cell's nucleus. Once inside, those genes make hundreds of copies of themselves. Then they exit the nucleus and repackage themselves into new flu particles, which go on to infect additional cells.

Swine Flu has become one of the most feared and widely known diseases in recent history  Swine flu symptoms:
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 Fever, which is usually high, but unlike seasonal flu, is sometimes        

absent Cough Runny nose or stuffy nose Sore throat Body aches Headache Chills Fatigue or tiredness, which can be extreme Diarrhea and vomiting, sometimes, but more commonly seen than with seasonal flu

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3 month span
 63,479 infected with swine flu  1-63 died from the flu

 Of those aged 70 and older who got sick, 10.3

percent died.  Pregnant women made up 6% of the deaths in Mexico. That rate is a bit lower than in the United States (8%) over the same time period.

 U.S. had 22 Million infected
 4,000 Americans died  ¾ of deaths have been from 18-64  540 teenagers, children and babies died  10% swine flu deaths were amongst elderly  98% of H1N1 related hospitalizations  Concerned- 59%  Not concerned- 41%

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Students in the surrounding Wilkes-Barre area are not taking necessary precautions to prevent obtaining the swine flu.
We surveyed at:
 Wilkes  Misericordia  Kings

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We predicted that the majority of the people surveyed would know of the swine flu, but not the symptoms of it.
We also predicted that people would not take drastic measures to prevent contraction of the swine flu.

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Sample Size: 60 students from 3 colleges (Wilkes, Kings, Misericordia) Paper Surveys
Random sampling

 

Schools

35%

32%

Kings Miserc.

33%

Wilkes

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  

What is your gender?
What is your age? Where do you attend school? (If in college) What is your major?

1.

Are you aware of the risk of Swine Flu?
(circle all you are aware of)

a)

Swine Flu, like other viruses, can be contracted by touching objects contaminated by viruses. Respiratory failure and death

b) c)

Fever, cough, sore throat, and fatigue

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Are you aware of the risk of Swine Flu?
 We looked at the average (mean) number of

people who were aware of at least 2/3 of the risks associated with swine flu

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for the mean point estimate critical measure standard error

Risk of Swine Flu 0.73 1.96 0.03

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upper limit
lower limit

0.80
0.67

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Are you aware of the risk of Swine Flu?
 How many people surveyed were aware that the

swine flu could result in respiratory failure and death?

for the proportion
   

Respiratory Failure & Death
0.58 60 1.96 0.06

sample proportion sample size critical measure standard error

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

upper limit
lower limit

0.71
0.46

2. Are you aware of the precautions that you can take to prevent swine flu?(circle all you are aware of)
a) b) c)

d)
e)

Always cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing Ideally use something disposable, like tissue, when coughing or sneezing Wash your hands frequently with soap and water If you start feeling ill with cold or flu-like symptoms, do not got to work or school Vaccination via shot/nasal spray

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Are you aware of the precautions that you can take to prevent swine flu?
 We considered at least three of the five options

given, to be aware of the precautions

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Are more than half of the people surveyed aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu? NULL: p =< Half  Not more than half of the people surveyed are aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu. ALTERNATIVE: p > Half  More than half of the people surveyed are aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu.

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test statistic (obs) 38.0 critical measure 0.829 obs > critical? TRUE p-value a-level 0.0000 0.05

p-value < a-level? TRUE
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Reject the null. More than half of the people surveyed are aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu.

3. How often do you wash your hands?
a)

Never

b)
c)

Once a day
2-3 times a day

d)
e)

4-5 times a day
6 or more times a day

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How often do you wash your hands?
 We based our 2 sample hypothesis test off of

gender. In this instance we used 2-3 times a day as our testing point.

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Are females more likely than males to wash their hands at least 2-3 times a day?
NULL: p2 > p1  Females wash their hands more than males ALTERNATIVE: p2 <= p1  Females do not wash their hands more than males

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test statistic (obs) 2.340 critical measure 1.645 obs > critical? YES p-value a-level 0.01 0.05

p-value < a-level YES
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Reject the Null. Females do not wash their hands more than males 2-3 times a day.

4. What do you do when you cough/sneeze?
a)

Just let it out

b)
c)

Cover your mouth or nose with hand
Use a tissue

d)

Use your arm/sleeve to cover

What Do People Do When They Sneeze?
20 18 16 14 Total Amount 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 f Female or Male m

Never
Cover Mouth or Nose Use a Tissue Use Arm/Sleeve to Cover

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What do you do when you cough/sneeze?
 We based our test off of the people who “just let it

out” and do not cover their mouths at all.

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Are there people that do not cover their mouths when sneezing?
NULL: m<= 60  People do not cover their mouths ALTERNATIVE: m > 60  People do cover their mouths

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test statistic (obs) -392.8 critical measure 1.89
|obs| > critical? Yes p-value a-level 0.00001 0.05 p-value < a-level? Yes



Reject the Null. There are more people that cover their mouths when sneezing.

5. How often do you attend social events/settings (ex. The bar, parties, sporting events, etc.?)
a) b) c) d) e)

Never Once a month Once a week 1-3 times a week Daily

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How often do you attend social events/settings (ex. The bar, parties, sporting events, etc.?)
 We based our 2 sample hypothesis test according

to Wilkes and Misericordia. In this instance we used 1-3 times a week as our testing point.

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Are Wilkes students more at risk of the swine flu by attending social events 1-3 times a week than Misericordia students?
NULL: p1 <= p2  Wilkes students are not at more of a risk ALTERNATIVE: p1 > p2  Wilkes students are at more of a risk

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test statistic (obs) critical measure
p-value a-level

3.449 1.960
obs > critical? YES 0.0006 0.05 p-value < a-level YES



Reject the Null. Wilkes students are at more of a risk of contracting the swine flu by attending social events more often.

6. What measure would you take to prevent contraction of the Swine Flu? (circle all you are aware of)
a) b) c)

Vaccination via shot/nasal spray Wearing respiratory masks in public Education in preventative measures

d)
e)

Washing hands regularly
None (I am not concerned about the swine flu)

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What measure would you take to prevent contraction of the Swine Flu?

Mode 42  Washing hands regularly  Median 17  Education in preventative measure  Mean 20.6  Vaccination shot/nasal spray
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Measure of Center: Mode

Sum of 6a Answers Sum of 6b Total Sum of 6c

Sum of 6d
Sum of 6e

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

People Surveyed

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What measure would you take to prevent contraction of the Swine Flu?
 Based on the vaccination via shot/nasal spray we

based our hypothesis on the age and how willing people are to getting the vaccination

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Does age affect the number of people willing to get a vaccination shot?
NULL: m1 = m2  age does not affect the willingness to get the vaccination ALTERNATIVE: m1 < > m2  age does affect the willingness to get the vaccination

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test statistic (obs) critical measure p-value a-level

45.42 1.96 obs| > critical?? Yes 0.000 0.05 p-value < a-level?? Yes



Reject the Null. Age does affect people and their willingness on getting the vaccination shot.

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Hypothesis: Students in the surrounding Wilkes-Barre area are not taking necessary precautions to prevent obtaining the swine flu.
 All students are at more of a risk to contract the

swine flu by attending social events  Wilkes University students are at more of a risk than Misericordia students due to the fact of attending more social events

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We predicted that the majority of the people surveyed would know of the swine flu, but not the symptoms of it.
 More than half of the people surveyed are aware

of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu.  73% of the people surveyed are aware of the risks of swine flu.  58% said they do know that the swine flu can cause respiratory failure and death.

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We predicted people would not take drastic measures to prevent contraction of the swine flu.
 Overall students would rather wash their hands

first before receiving education and vaccinations therefore; no they would not take drastic measures to prevent contraction of the swine flu.  However, people are still aware they have the option to get the vaccination shot


				
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