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25 Nov08 Hart2

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					Stephen D. Hart, PhD

An Illustration Using the RSVP

STRUCTURING RISK MANAGEMENT DECISIONS USING SCENARIO PLANNING METHODS

Rationale
 The RSVP is a new set of structured professional judgment (SPJ) guidelines designed to facilitate comprehensive, treatment-oriented sexual violence risk assessments
 It builds on other SPJ guidelines, such as the

Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20)

Administration
Step 1

• Case information • Presence of risk factors

Step 2

Step 3

• Relevance of risk factors
• Scenarios of sexual violence • Management strategies • Conclusory opinions

Step 4

Step 5

Step 6

Step 4 Always consider past behavior

Consider possible development or evolution of offense behavior

Basic Scenarios

Repeat • Consider all past violence, not just most recent

Twist • Change in motivation, victimology, behavioral topography

Escalation • Including lethal or “worst case”

Improvement • Including desistence or “best case”

Step 5 Identify and target relevant risk factors Specify management strategies and tactics

Strategies

Evaluative Research

Interrater Reliability
 Interrater reliability of presence and relevance ratings for individual risk factors is good to excellent
 There is no difference in reliability for ratings of

presence and relevance of individual risk factors

 Interrater reliability of domain and overall

ratings is good to excellent  Interrater reliability of summary judgments is excellent

Concurrent Validity
 Concurrent validity with respect to SPJs and ARAIs is good
 Most strongly related to SVR-20 and SORAG,

likely due to content overlap
 The common variance among instruments can be

accounted for in large part by psychopathy

 Various RSVP summary judgments have

different concurrent validities
 Case prioritization ratings are more strongly related

to actuarial scores than are other ratings

Predictive Validity
 Sexual violence risk assessments made using the RSVP have moderate predictive validity
 Equivalent to that of SVR-20, ARAIs  Similar to SPJs and ARAIs in past research

Future Research

Scenarios
 How do evaluators develop scenarios?
 Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk

factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators

 What is the nature of the scenarios generated?
 Content analysis to examine numbers, details,

distinctiveness

 What is the interrater reliability of scenarios of

future sexual violence?
 Evaluate similarity of scenarios between raters/within

cases versus between raters/between cases

Management Strategies
 How do evaluators develop plans?
 Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk

factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators

 What is the nature of the plans generated?
 Content analysis to examine numbers, details,

distinctiveness

 What is the interrater reliability of strategies?
 Evaluate similarity of plans between raters/within

cases versus between raters/between cases

Efficacy
 Do scenarios and plans influence improve case management?
 RCT to evaluate improvements in service delivery and

violence prevention

Correspondence
 Stephen D. Hart, PhD Psychology Department Simon Fraser University 8888 University Drive Burnaby, BC Canada V5A 1S6 E-mail: hart@sfu.ca


				
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posted:12/19/2009
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