Renewable Energy Is A Bargain by ja8233

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 48

									Renewable Energy
  Is A Bargain


          John Richter
           Institute for
  Sustainable Energy Education

  energyprophet@comcast.net
                Agenda
           Energy History
           Environmental issues
           Supply issues
           Economic issues
           What you can do




Jun-2009              RE is a Bargain   2
             Exponential Growth
           in Energy Consumption




Jun-2009            RE is a Bargain   3
           Environmental Issues

                          Fossil fuels cause:
                                 Global warming
                                 Dying forests
                                 Poisonous fish
                                 Ill health
                                 Death



Jun-2009            RE is a Bargain               4
       Michigan Fuel for Electricity
           MI Electricity Sources
                                                    Coal
                                                    Natural Gas
                                                    Nuclear
                   1%2%
                                                    Hydroelectric
    26%                                             Other Renewables



                                              61%
      10%



Jun-2009                    RE is a Bargain                    5
Jun-2009   RE is a Bargain   6
Jun-2009   RE is a Bargain   7
                   Global Warming
                                                     The planet is
                                                     getting warmer
                                                     The burning of
                                                     fossil fuels is a
                                                     major cause
                                                     Yet the denials
                                                     continue…



     Source: http://www.globalwarmingchallenge.co.uk/theories.php
Jun-2009                           RE is a Bargain                  8
           Polar Ice Caps are Melting
                   1979                                     2003




      NASA photos from: http://www.awitness.org/journal/melt_ice_cap_glacier.html
Jun-2009                                  RE is a Bargain                           9
                                   Acid Rain




                                     Photo from NASA:
                                     Amateur Scientists
                                     Guide to Air Quality



http://science.howstuffworks.com
    Jun-2009                             RE is a Bargain    10
                   How Acid is Acid?
           Normal rain has a pH of 5.5.
           2/3 of SO & ¼ of NO are from power plants.
                     2              x
           The Clean Air Act of 1990 reduced acid pollutants
           significantly. Still…
           Rain in much of the NE U.S. has a pH of 4.5 – ten
           times as acidic as clean rain (western U.S.).
           Some rain in the Midwest has a pH of below 4 –
           more acidic than tomato juice or orange juice.


Jun-2009                          RE is a Bargain              11
           http://nadp.sws.uiuc.edu/isopleths/maps2007/phlab.gif
Jun-2009                      RE is a Bargain                12
           Mercury Contamination
                           48 states have fish
                           advisories due to mercury
                           contamination. Michigan is
                           one of 19 states with an
                           advisory on all lakes and
                           rivers.
                           The EPA issued
                           regulations on mercury
                           emissions in 2005, giving
                           utilities 13
                           more years.
Jun-2009             RE is a Bargain              13
                                            41% of
                                            Michigan’s
                                            Mercury
                                            Emissions
                                            are from
                                            Coal-Burning
                                            Power Plants



     The National Figure is 52%
Jun-2009                  RE is a Bargain             14
Jun-2009   RE is a Bargain   15
       Mercury Hurts Our Children
                           According to the Center
                           for Disease Control
                           (CDC): 300,000 –
                           600,000 children born
                           in the U.S. each year
                           have measurably
                           lowered IQs resulting
                           from high mercury
                           levels.


Jun-2009           RE is a Bargain               16
                    Particulates
      Power plants and vehicles also emit tiny particles of
      unburned material called particulates.
      Particulates have been shown to cause
      asthma attacks, lung cancer, heart failure,
      and cardiac arrest.
      The American Lung Association has found
      that existing levels of particulates inhibit
      the development of proper lung function
      in children.

Jun-2009                      RE is a Bargain           17
           Disease


                   “… power plant particle
                    pollution causes more
                    than 603,000 asthma
                    attacks per year…”

                   Source: Abt Associates: Death, Disease, and
                       Dirty Power Plants




Jun-2009      RE is a Bargain                                    18
                   Low Birth Weights
    A study, published in the Journal of Epidemiology and
    Community Health, this year concluded…
    The risk of a small birth weight baby rose significantly
    with each increase in particulate matter… during the
    first and third trimesters of pregnancy.
    Similarly, the risk of a very small birth weight baby rose
    significantly with each 10 parts per billion increase in
    nitrogen dioxide.

           http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7988619.stm

Jun-2009                           RE is a Bargain          19
                                    Death
                                            “Abt Associates finds over
                                            30,000 deaths each year are
                                            attributable to fine particle
                                            pollution from U.S. power
                                            plants.”
                                        Source: The Clean the Air Task Force, Oct-2000

A 2007 study found that living in high pollution cities increase
the risk of Cardiovascular death by 150%, previous studies
(above) had put it at only 40%.
   “Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Incidence of Cardiovascular Events in
Women”, New England Journal of Medicine, 1-Feb-07

    Jun-2009                              RE is a Bargain                                20
    Supply Issues




           Today                      Tomorrow
Jun-2009            RE is a Bargain              21
                                                    Dependency
                                    U.S. Oil Supplies

                  8.0
                                                                                The U.S. imports 58% of
                  7.0
                                               Consumption
                                                                                its oil consumption.
                  6.0

                                                                                The U.S. also imports
Billion Barrels




                  5.0

                  4.0                                                           16% of its natural gas.
                  3.0

                  2.0                     Production

                  1.0

                  0.0
                    1950     1960       1970       1980      1990   2000
                                            Year


                  Jun-2009                                          RE is a Bargain                22
             Oil is Concentrated –
                 And Far Away
    Just 5 countries in
    the Persian Gulf                   World Oil Reserves
    own 63% of the                                            Saudi
    world’s oil             Rest of                           Arabia
                            World                              25%
    reserves.
    The U.S., the            37%
    world’s largest oil
    importer,                                                   Iraq
    has >140,000                       Iran    Kuwait       UAE 11%
    troops there (still).               9%      9%          9%


Jun-2009                     RE is a Bargain                       23
                   Dependency
                 Determines Policy
     Oil dependency drives us to intervene in foreign affairs
     which we could otherwise ignore.
     In January 1980, the “Carter Doctrine” was announced
     to the world:
     “An attempt by an outside force to gain control of the Persian
     Gulf region will be regarded as
     an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America,
     and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary,
     including military force.”


Jun-2009                           RE is a Bargain                   24
   World Oil Supply Set to Decline
      Fossil fuels are a finite resource (not renewable). We
      are burning our inheritance.
      Oil will be the first of the fuels to falter.
      The world’s oil wells will not dry up at once;
      production will peak and then decline gradually.
      Geologists are predicting this peak in the world oil
      extraction rate will occur in the next few years, if it
      hasn’t already.

Jun-2009                      RE is a Bargain             25
  U.S. Oil Discoveries and Extraction




Jun-2009           RE is a Bargain   26
           World Oil Discovery
              is Declining
                                      The world oil
                                      extraction rate
                                      has continued to
                                      increase, but new
                                      oil discoveries are
                                      declining.
                                      We’re living off
                                      past discoveries.

Jun-2009            RE is a Bargain                 27
           Economics
                     A broad variety of
                     renewable energy
                     technologies have been
                     proven to work.
                     It is often said that
                     renewable energy is too
                     expensive… that it “can’t
                     compete”
                     This is an accounting
                     error…

Jun-2009       RE is a Bargain             28
                     Security Costs

                                  “Paid predominantly by
                                   the U.S., the costs of
                                   protecting our Middle
                                   East oil supplies are as
                                   high as $15-25 a barrel
                                   - that is about a dollar a
                                   gallon.”
                                               Peter Hain – 2002
           USS Stark, 1987                     UK Europe Minister

Jun-2009                     RE is a Bargain                   29
                The Iraq War
    It would be overly simplistic to say the Iraq
    war was “just about oil”. But it would be
    naive to say it “had nothing to do with oil”.
    The U.S. has spend > $670B on the Iraq
    war, and suffered >4,000 dead and 50,000
    wounded.
    Iraqi casualties are variously estimated
    between 50,000 and 600,000.

Jun-2009                 RE is a Bargain       30
Volatile Fuel Prices Make Long-Term
          Planning Difficult




           North American gas price last 17 years (Henry Hub $/Mcf)
                  Source: Guinness Atkinson Energy Brief– May 2009
Jun-2009                            RE is a Bargain                  31
            Energy Imports Drain
               the Economy
Oil imports were
half of
February’s U.S.
trade deficit of
$26 billion.

Michigan spent
$24 billion on
imported fuels in
2007.



 Jun-2009            RE is a Bargain   32
        The Economic Burden of
       Pollution is Not Factored In
           Power plant pollution causes more than 5
           million lost work days each year. (Ostro,
           1987)
           “…the total monetary benefits of cleaning up
           power plants to modern pollution standards
           would be over $100 billion per year.” (Abt
           Assoc., 2000)


Jun-2009                      RE is a Bargain         33
           The Cost of Pollution - EU
The European Union       Source             Externalities
                                          (euro-cents/kWh)
commissioned a
study on the health         Coal             4.1 - 7.3
and other social
costs of pollution           Gas              1.3 - 2.3
from power plants.
It was called ExternE    Nuclear                0.4
and was released          Hydro
in 1991.                    Wind              0.1 - 0.2

Jun-2009                RE is a Bargain                   34
           The Cost of Pollution – U.S.
       The Clear Air Task Force (1991) estimates
       the medical costs caused by U.S. power plants
       at $178 B/yr, or about 4.8 cents/kWh.
       The Bush Administration’s EPA (2001):
       Reducing power plant pollution 70% will
       reduce medical costs by $110 B/yr, or about
       3 cents/kWh. So 100% would be 4.3
       cents/kWh (assuming it’s linear).
       Mercury pollution costs $2 – 44 B /yr.

Jun-2009                    RE is a Bargain        35
           Wind Energy is a Bargain
                      Consumers Power green
                      generation program sells
                      from these wind turbines in
                      Mackinaw and new systems at a
                      premium of 1.7 cents/kWh.
                      Traverse City’s green premium is
                      only 1.58 cent/kWh.
                      DTE Energy’s “green currents”
                      premium is 2 or 2.5 cents/kWh.
                      These premiums are significantly
                      less than the medical cost of the
                      pollution from coal power plants
Jun-2009              RE is a Bargain             36
           Gov’t Energy R&D Subsidies
                             The Renewable Energy Policy
                              Project estimated
                              government technology
                              subsidies for solar, wind, and
                              nuclear technologies over the
                              past 60 years:
                                Nuclear $145.0 B
                                Solar    $ 4.4 B
                                Wind:    $ 1.3 B


Jun-2009               RE is a Bargain                    37
                Total Gov’t Energy Subsidies
  Considering all
  forms of gov’t
  energy subsidies,
  the Nuclear Energy
  Institute (nei.org)
  still shows that
  renewables get a
  small share

http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.c
om/2006/12/truth-about-
government-subsidies-for.html


     Jun-2009                       RE is a Bargain   38
     RE Sets the World Price of Oil!
 “We've got almost 30% of the world's oil. For us, the
  objective is to assure that oil remains an
  economically competitive source of energy. Oil
  prices that are too high reduce demand growth for
  oil and encourage the development of alternative
  energy sources.“
                  Adel al-Jubeir, foreign-policy adviser to
                  Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah

   Source: WSJ, 27-May-2004, “Saudi Arabia Fears $40-a-Barrel Oil, Too”



Jun-2009                                 RE is a Bargain                  39
           What Can You Do?

                                Conserve
                                Home RE
                                Green power
                                Get involved




Jun-2009          RE is a Bargain              40
                   What Do We Do
                   With the Energy?
            Regional Residential Energy
                  Expenditures                         Most residential
13%                                                    energy is used for
           3%                                          space heating.
 18%                                                   Hot water is the
                               64%                     second biggest
      2%
                                                       energy user.
Space Heating         Air Conditioning
Water Heating         Refrigerator
Other App&Light


Jun-2009                             RE is a Bargain                   41
              Energy Conservation
           Put an insulating blanket on your hot
           water heater.
           Replace old appliances – esp. the furnace.
           Install compact fluorescent lights.
           Have a home energy checkup done
           ($100-500).
             Implement the recommendations
             See: www.urbanoptions.org
           Drive less.
           Get a fuel efficient vehicle.

Jun-2009                       RE is a Bargain          42
           I Replaced My Refrigerator
      Old Fridge:
        1986 Whirlpool
        18 cubic feet
        Used 1090 kWh/yr
      New Fridge:
        2004 Kenmore
        22 cubic feet (+22%)
        Used 462 kWh/yr
      A 58% Savings! ($64/yr)
Jun-2009                        RE is a Bargain   43
           RE for Your Home
                                    Solar Thermal
                                           Pool heating
                                           Hot water
                                           Space heating
                                    Electricity
                                           Wind
    See: www.glrea.org                     Photovoltaics

Jun-2009                 RE is a Bargain                   44
Jun-2009   RE is a Bargain   45
                Buy Green Power
    DTE Energy’s Green Currents Program:
    http://my.dteenergy.com/products/greenCurrents/res
    idential/enrollmentOptions.html
    Consumer’s Energy
    http://www.consumersenergy.com/welcome.htm
    Select “For home”, “Green Generation program”
    Lansing Board of Water and Light has a green power
    program: http://www.lbwl.com/gwp.asp



Jun-2009                       RE is a Bargain           46
                   Conclusions
   Our dependence on fossil fuels causes environmental,
   political, and economic problems. They may not
   continue to be dependable.
   RE can provide a clean, reliable, domestic energy supply
   with fixed costs.
   At a global or social level, RE is a bargain, but nuclear
   and fossil fuels aren’t forced to pay their own way. In
   fact, they’re subsidized!
   As a result of this false accounting, RE often appears
   more expensive - a destructive illusion.

Jun-2009                      RE is a Bargain             47
                Questions?
        John Richter, Co-founder ISEE
          energyprophet@comcast.net
MREA (June 19-21)
“Economics of RE” Friday, 11am, White-flag
“Limits to Growth” Friday, 5pm, White-flag
“Crude Awakening” Saturday, 11am & 12-noon, Pink-flag
“Economics of RE” Saturday, 4pm Green-flag
GLREA (June 26-28)
“Economics of RE” Friday 3pm, Tent-4
“Limits to Growth” Friday, 5pm, Tent-3
“Crude Awakening” Saturday, 3 & 4pm (2 parts), Tent3
“RE is a Bargain” Sunday, 2pm, Tent-2

								
To top