Today’s Mortgage Industry Presented by

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Today’s Mortgage Industry Presented by Powered By Docstoc
					                     Today’s
           Mortgage Industry
                                        Presented by
David Horak, IMA Past President, MGIC Account Manager
                                       and Larry James
        Today’s Mortgage Industry


• How we got here

• Where we are today

• Looking Ahead
       Today’s Mortgage Industry

• How we got here
                                   Median Home Price and
                         60th Percentile Household Income
                   700                                                  Forecasted

                                     Home Prices
                   600

                   500
Index 1975 = 100




                   400

                   300

                   200                    Household Income


                   100
                     1975   1982   1989    1996    2003        2010              2017
                                                     Source: Census Bureau, OFHEO, Bank of America Securities
       Non-Traditional types of loans

• Reduced documentation loans

• Sub-prime loans

• Jumbo loans, loans exceeding
  $417,000
• Where we are today
                          Lay of the Land
• There are 75 million homeowners in the United
  States, near record homeownership level of 68.2%
• 35% of homeowners have no mortgage debt
• 94% of mortgage holders pay on time
• Subprime loans account for 12% of all mortgages
• Estimated 12% of loans are in the foreclosure
  process
• Home price decline (year over year ending in
  November) has eroded about 1/7 of the housing
  wealth made in the last 5 years
Projected peak-to-trough house price decline




                                                        < -10%
                                                       -10 < -5%
                                                       -5 < 0%
              U.S. = -12.3%                            No correction


      Sources: Fiserv Lending Solutions, Moody's Economy.com, OFHEO
              Seriously Delinquent Loans* First
                         Quarter 2009 Average
•   All Loans                           7.24%
•   Subprime ARM                       36.46%
•   Subprime Fixed                     15.38%
•   FHA                                 7.37%
•   Prime ARM                           13.33%
•   Prime Fixed                         2.88%
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
                                         *90-days Past Due and
                                          Foreclosure Inventory
  State Share By Loan Type
          (1st quarter 2009)
Prime Share       81.1%

Sub-Prime Share   7.2%

FHA Share         9.6%
VA Share          2.0%
       State Ranking (1st Q 2009) By
           Delinquency /Foreclosure

Total Delinquency       5.33%   41st

Foreclosure Inventory   2.34%   29th

Foreclosure Starts       .70%   43rd
                                                   Quarterly Foreclosure Starts
% 1.60


  1.40

                                                 National             Iowa
  1.20



  1.00



  0.80



  0.60



  0.40



  0.20



  0.00
         1Q 2006   2Q 2006   3Q 2006   4Q 2006   1Q 2007    2Q 2007    3Q 2007   4Q 2007   1Q 2008   2Q 2008   3Q2008   4Q2008   1Q2009
Looking Ahead
                         Inventory of New Homes
                                           Months' Supply of Inventory


                    12
                    10
                     8
                     6
                     4
                     2

         Source:
                     0
Mortgage Bankers
      Association     1997   1999   2001   2003    2005     2007
               Additional Consumer and
                     Industry Resources
•   Iowa mortgage Help Hot Line 877-622-4866,
    www.iowamortgagehelp.com
•   American Credit Repair, 800-419-0987
•   Iowa Mortgage Association, www.iowama.com
•   Mortgage Bankers Association of America,
    www.mbaa.org
•   Home Loan Learning Center,
    www.homeloanlearningcenter.com
•   Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight,
    www.ofheo.gov
•   Buyers Ed, www.mgichome.com
                     Conclusion
• Questions???

• Thank You!

• david_horak@mgic.com
  515-240-7920