Climate change facts and figures

							Climate change facts and figures 1. Since 1980 the earth has experience 19 of its 20 hottest years on record with 2002 the second hottest ever and 1998 the hottest. (IPCC) 2. One industry very directly affected by the risks is the insurance industry. The number of major natural disasters has trebled since the 1960s, and insured losses increased fifteen fold in real terms (adjusted for inflation). According to one study, 35–40 percent of the worst catastrophes have been climate change related. In 2004 Swiss Re, the world's second largest reinsurance company, warned that the economic costs of climate-related disasters threatened to reach US$ 150 billion a year within ten years while a 2005 report from the Association of British Insurers, says that limiting carbon emissions could avoid 80 percent of the projected additional annual cost of tropical cyclones by the 2080s. (Environmental Resources Management (ERM) 3. In the 1990s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees – who are not included in the official definition of refugees, which only includes those fleeing persecution – at around 25 million. The IPCC estimates that there will be 150 million environmental refugees in the year 2050 (1.5 percent of 2050‟s predicted 10 billion world population) due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption. (IPCC) 4. According to WHO 150,000 people currently die every year as a result of climate change. A staggering 182 million people in sub-Saharan Africa alone could die of disease directly attributable to climate change by the end of the century. (WHO, Christian Aid) 5. If we were to allocate a year‟s worth of sustainable resources to each country and the give a date for the point at which a country has used its own annual natural resources and needs those from another country, the UK's date would be April 16th. The date for the whole world is October 23rd. After the planet begins to eat into its own bio-capacity and life-sustaining environmental resources. If the whole world were to live at the model of material consumption set by the UK today, we would need the resources of 3.1 planets. (New Economics Foundation, UK) 6. Global sea level rose by an average 1.8mm per year over 1961 to 2003, with the fastest th rates recored between 1993-2003. The total 20 Century rise is estimated to be 1.7mm. Since 60 percent of the world‟s population lives within 65 miles of the coast many will be forced to relocate as sea levels rise. (IPCC AR4) 7. Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean has increased at depths of at least 3,000 meters and that the ocean has been absorbing 80 percent of the heat added to earth‟s climate system. (IPCC AR4) 8. Carbon dioxide is responsible for over 60 per cent of the "enhanced greenhouse effect." Currently, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are rising by over 10 per cent every 20 years. it is almost certain that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide will double from preindustrial levels during the 21st century. It is possible they will triple. (UNFCCC)

9. In Africa's large catchment basins of Niger, Lake Chad, and Senegal, total available water has decreased by 40 to 60 per cent, and desertification has been worsened by lower average annual rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture, especially in southern, northern, and western Africa (UNFCCC). 10. Climate model projections indicate that average global surface temperature will probably rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 C during the 21st century. (IPCC). 11. Earth‟s average temperature hasn‟t varied by more than 1° C over the last 10,000 years. However, the IPCC predicts that global average temperatures could increase by between 1.4 – 6.4°C during the 21st century. Just small changes in temperature can make enormous differences – a 3°C increase in global temperature could cause more than 1/3 of Earth‟s species to go extinct, significantly deplete agricultural yields around the world, and put millions of people at risk from coastal flooding. (IPCC) 12. The ocean's ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as it warms, because the resulting low nutrient levels of the mesopelagic zone (also known as the „twilight zone‟ extending from 200 m below sea level down to around 1000 m) limits the growth of diatoms in favour of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon. (Science, 2007) 13. Energy efficient compact fluorescent lightbulbs (CSLs), use between one-fifth and onequarter of the power of an equivalent „normal‟ incandescent lightbulb for a given light output. Lighting is estimated to account for approximately 9 percent of household electricity usage in developed countries. (Manufacturers’ claim – GE Lighting, Energy Star) 14. Aviation produces some 610 mega-tons of carbon each year (about 5 percent of global emissions) and more than the world's fourth biggest economy - the UK according to the Aviation Environment Federation which predicts that by 2010 that figure will rise to 776 mega-tons and, by 2025, will reach 1,228 mega-tons. The UN World Tourism Organization reported 610 million international tourist arrivals in the first eight months of 2007, 32 million more than in the same period last year. There are expected to be 1.6 billion arrivals by 2020. Tourism is the primary source of foreign exchange earnings in 46 out of 50 of the world's least developed countries, according to the UNWTO. (UNWTO, Aviation Environment Federation, BBC). 15. Capacities of the world‟s main carbon reservoirs (in gigatonnes – a billion metric tonnes) are estimated at: atmosphere – 750 (1.5 percent); forests – 610 (1.2 percent); soils – 1,580 (3.2 percent); surface ocean – 1,020 (2.1 percent) ; deep ocean – 38,100 (81 percent), and in fossil fuels(total 5,000 or 11 percent): coal – 4,000 (8.6 percent); oil – 500 (1.2 percent); natural gas – 500 (1.2 percent). (Climate Concern) 16. Carbon emissions by sector for a typical European country, such as the UK, are: business 26 percent, domestic 26 percent, transport 28 percent, public sector 15 percent, agriculture 1 percent, others 4 percent. (Climate Concern)

17. Some 40 percent of energy-related carbon emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, coal, and natural gas, to generate electrical power. The transportation sector is the second-largest source worldwide, responsible for 20 percent of all carbon emitted. Residential and commercial buildings account for roughly 15 percent of the total, and the industrial sector, another 15 percent. The remaining 10 percent of energy-related emissions come from a variety of minor uses, including fuels burned by sea-going ships. (Earth Policy Unit) 18. Half of all energy-related carbon emissions come from only four countries. The United States, with less than 5 percent of the world‟s population, accounts for 21 percent of carbon emissions. It is followed by China, which emits 18 percent. Both countries are heavy users of coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel. Russia accounts for 6 percent of carbon emissions, just ahead of Japan, which produces 5 percent of the global total. Other major contributors to global carbon emissions are India, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Italy. (Earth Policy Unit) 19. A recent article in New Scientist magazine has suggested that if the roofs of all of the buildings on Earth were painted white, the amount of sunlight reflected back into space would be increased, which could reduce global temperatures by an average of 1 degree Celsius, almost exactly canceling out the global warming that has taken place since the start of the industrial revolution. According to the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project at Columbia University, roughly 3 per cent of the Earth's land surface is covered with urban areas. The article reasons: “The Earth has an albedo of 0.29, meaning that it reflects 29 per cent of the sunlight that falls upon it. With an albedo of 0.1, towns absorb more sunlight than the global average. Painting all roofs white could nudge the Earth's albedo from 0.29 towards 0.30.” A similar case has been made for painting roads white. (New Scientist) 20. Pine forests in British Columbia have been devastated by a pine beetle infestation, which has expanded unhindered since 1998 at least in part due to the lack of severe winters in recent years. Previously outbreaks were naturally contained by a few days of extreme cold kill. The infestation, which will have killed 50 percent of the lodgepole pines by 2008 will spread further East and eventually into America given continued milder winters. Besides the immediate ecological and economic impact, the huge dead forests are a fire risk. (Natural Resources Canada) 21. Climate scientists reported in August 2005 that a one million square kilometer region of permafrost peat bogs in western Siberia is starting to melt for the first time since it was formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. This will release possibly as much as 70,000 million tonnes of methane over the next few decades. (Guardian) 22. If the average fuel efficiency of American cars was increased by one mile per gallon, twice the amount of oil that could be obtained from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would be saved in just one year. Raising fuel efficiency by 2.7 mpg would save enough to eliminate all the oil imports from Iraq and Kuwait combined and a 7.6 mpg increase would

equal 100% of Gulf oil imports to the US. (Environmental Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr., author of Crimes Against Nature) 23. The melting of the ice caps of Antarctica and Greenland is raising sea levels and also contributing to the thermal expansion of ocean water as temperatures rise. Sea levels are already rising by about 2mm a year, and the IPCC predicts a likely rise of half a metre by 2100. Such rises would threaten hundreds of millions of people from the shores of the North Sea to the coastal swamps of West Africa. Island nations in the South Pacific, such as Kiribati and the Marshall Islands, could disappear beneath the waves by 2100. (IPCC) 24. Major water shortages, caused by climate change, will afflict 5 billion people within 25 years, especially in southern Africa, around the Mediterranean and in central Asia. A study in early 2006 predicted that at least a quarter of African rivers will contain significantly less rainfall by 2050. (IPCC, Environment Agency) 25. In July, 2007 the Vatican announced its bid to become the first carbon neutral state by offsetting its carbon dioxide emissions with the creation of a Vatican Climate Forest in Hungary. The forest, donated to the Vatican City by a carbon offsetting company, will be sized to offset the carbon emissions generated by the Vatican during 2007. The Vatican has also announced that the roof of the Paul VI Audience Hall is to be be covered with photovoltaic panels that will make it possible to heat, cool and light the building exclusively with solar power. (Catholic News Service) 26. Livestock, including deforestation in order to create grazing land, is responsible for 18 percent of the world‟s greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents. AS well as CO2 emissions, livestock produces 65 percent of human-induced nitrous oxide (which has 296 times the global warming potential of CO2) and 37 percent of humaninduced methane (which has 23 times the global warming potential of CO2). (Livestock's Long Shadow – 2006 UN FAO report) 27. The world consumes 80 million barrels of oil daily with the United States and Japan as the top consumers. Nine billion tons (eight billion metric tons) of carbon are poured into the atmosphere each year. (National Geographic). 28. The United States uses a quarter of the world‟s oil although it accounts for juts 5 percent of the world‟s population (National Geographic). 29. NASA satellites show that Artic sea ice is shrinking by 9 percent every decade. The arctic could be ice-free by the end of this century. Polar ice currently cools the earth by reflecting sunlight out to space. (National Geographic).
30. When President Taft created Glacier National Park in Montana, USA in 1910, it contained an estimated 150 glaciers. Since then it has decreased to fewer than 30 glaciers, and most of those remaining have shrunk in area by two-thirds. It is feared that within 30 years most, if not all, of the park's namesake glaciers will have disappeared. 31. Glaciers in the Garhwal Himalaya in India are retreating so fast that researchers believe that most central and eastern Himalayan glaciers could virtually disappear by 2035. (National Geographic)

32. Every inch of sea-level rise could result in eight feet of horizontal retreat of sandy beach shorelines due to erosion. (Florida International University) 33. According an on-line calculator provided by TerraPass, a company selling carbon offsets a twoyear old, mid-range family car with manual transmission will produce 12,000 lbs of CO2 a year, for which the company estimates an offset fee of $49.25. (TerraPass)

34. Over the last 20 years, human population has increased by a third, global trade has tripled, and per capita income has gone up by 40 percent. Annual emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, have also increased by one third. (BBC) 35. A poll by Globescan, who interviewed 22,182 people in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, the UK, and the United States found that 83 percent of respondents throughout the world agreed that individuals would definitely or probably have to make lifestyle changes to reduce the amount of climatechanging gases they produce. Some 70 percent said they were ready to make personal sacrifices. (BBC) 36. Global warming could shrink the world's economy by as much as 20 percent although tackling the tackling the problem now would require only 1 percent of global gross domestic product. (Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change) 37. There has been a marked increase in the number of tropical storms since 1990. The 2005 hurricane season was the worst on record. (WMO) 38. A recent study has found that 130 species, including both plants and animals, have responded to earlier spring warming over the last 30 years by changing their times of flowering, migration and other spring activities. The changes occurred regardless of regional difference and are linked directly to global warming. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) 39. Renewable energy could provide 30 to 35 percent of electricity by 2030 (from 18 percent in 2005) and that the amount provided by nuclear power could increase from 16 to 18 percent. (IPCC) 40. High oil prices could encourage the use of high carbon alternatives such as oil sands, oil shales, heavy oils and synthetic fuels derived from coal and gas, leading to increased carbon emissions. (IPCC)