Catastrophe Information
Status Report No: D-4
Hurricane Dolly
Date: Time: Current Position: Current Wind Speed: Current Forward Speed of storm: Current Pressure: Current Intensity Class: Status: 24 July 2008 09:00 UTC (05:00 EST) 26.9N 98.6W 60 mph (95 kmph) 7 mph (11 kmph) 991 mb Tropical Storm Weakening
Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information. Summary Hurricane Dolly is currently located approximately 95 miles (155 kilometres) northwest of Brownsville in Texas (population of around 140,000) and packs sustained winds of around 60 mph (95 kmph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Dolly made landfall in southern Texas as a category 2 hurricane at 17:00 UTC (13:00 local time) on 23 July with sustained winds of around 100 mph (160 kmph), the NHC said. Dolly first crossed the relatively sparsely populated South Padre Island at 17:00 UTC before slowly moving west-northwest inland whilst gradually weakening. Reports said powerful winds and heavy rain hit communities near the landfall point and Dolly’s slow forward speed exacerbated the flooding in the area. AIR Worldwide estimates that losses in Texas from Hurricane Dolly will be between USD 300 million and USD 1.2 billion, with an expected (mean) loss of USD 600 million.
The NHC said hurricane-force winds extended just 25 miles (40 kilometres) from the centre of the storm at the time of landfall, minimising the extent of wind damage. Reports said the coastline near the Texas/Mexico border was hit with winds of up to 100 mph (160 kmph) and heavy rain. Dolly’s slow forward speed at the time of landfall increased its damage potential as coastal properties in the region were hit with powerful winds before the centre of the storm actually crossed the coastline. However, the cities of Brownsville and Matamoros, the two largest concentrations in the region were not hit by hurricane-force winds. Dolly dumped around 12 inches (300 millimetres) of rain over Texas and caused a coastal storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 metres). Forecasters said Dolly could dump up to 20 inches (510 millimetres) of rain in the region in the coming days. The severe weather cut power to around 122,000 people in south Texas at the peak of the storm and forced 5,000 residents in the three hardest-hit counties to seek refuge in public shelters. The US Census Bureau said that based on Dolly’s projected path, about 1.5 million Texans could feel the storm’s effects. Texas Governor Rick Perry also declared 14 south Texas counties disaster areas and sought federal disaster declarations prior to landfall. Reports said South Padre Island and small communities just north of Brownsville bore the brunt of the storm. According to reports, Dolly’s 100 mph (160 kmph) winds ripped roofs of buildings and shattered windows while the storm’s heavy rain flooded streets across the affected region. Record breaking levels of rainfall were recorded in Cameron County and there are concerns about the ability of the levees to withstand the floodwaters, which could reach 3 feet (1 metre) in the county, officials said. Emergency officials have consequently urged residents in Cameron County to move away from levees near the Rio Grande River. South Padre Island (with a population of around 2,400) sustained some of the storm’s heaviest damage. Reports said roofs were ripped off hotels and homes on the island and the heavy rain caused significant flooding. The road that links the island to the mainland was shut and a curfew was imposed at 20:00 local time. Thousand of homes also lost power. In Hidalgo County, meanwhile, officials said there were several incidents requiring emergency personnel to rescue people from their homes. The city of Brownsville was also hit and Mayor Pat Ahumada said emergency workers were ready to respond once the wind and rain died down. Elsewhere, no deaths were immediately reported in Mexico, but Tamaulipas State Governor Eugenio Hernandez said 50 neighbourhoods were still in danger from flooding and around 13,000 people had taken refuge in 21 shelters. The powerful winds also downed trees and power lines. Reports added that around 500,000 people in the state have been left without drinking water after a water treatment plant in Matamoros was damaged. Officials in Mexico are continuing to monitor the Rio Grande’s water levels, which were at 13 feet (4 metres) before the storm hit. Eduardo Perez, spokesman for the Tamaulipas state water commission, said the river could reach 30 feet (9 metres) before overflowing. Offshore, some non-essential workers on oil production facilities were evacuated as Dolly moved through the Gulf of Mexico but the storm missed most offshore drilling rigs and production platforms. Reuters News said US Gulf of Mexico producers shut only 5% of oil production on 22 July and the shutdowns were short lived. Mexico’s state oil company Pemex also said its production was not significantly hit. Initial insured loss estimates for Dolly from AIR Worldwide range from USD 300 million to USD 1.2 billion dollars in the United States, and less than a quarter of those amounts in Mexico. AIR added the uncertainty in the loss estimate is due to Dolly’s slow forward motion, its significant precipitation and the uncertainty in its future track as it makes its way inland. Risk Management Solutions (RMS) expects total insured losses to be below USD 750 million. This figure includes wind, flood and storm surge damage to residential, commercial and industrial properties and business interruption resulting from power outages or damage to property. EQECAT, meanwhile, estimates the market loss will be between USD 100 million and USD 800 million, with expectations towards the lower end of the range. Earlier in the week, Dolly made its first landfall as a tropical storm just south of Cancun on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula with sustained winds of around 50 mph (80 kmph) at around 07:00 UTC (02:00
local time) on 21 July, according to the NHC. Dolly’s landfall area is a well developed tourist region and the Governor of Quintana Roo State ordered the evacuation of small, low-lying islands Banco Chinchorro and Punta Allen as a precautionary measure. Evacuations were also ordered in the coastal town of Tulum and ferry traffic between Cozumel and the mainland was temporarily suspended. However, no major damage was report in the Yucatan Peninsula. Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse, Dow Jones News, BBC News, CNN News, EQECAT, AIR Worldwide For more CAT-i reports and further information on the service, please click http://www.guycarp.com. Guy Carpenter & Company Ltd provides this publication for general informational purposes only, and does not accept responsibility for the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein. All information used in this report is based on publicly available information, as of a specified date. Readers are cautioned against placing undue reliance upon any statements contained herein. Guy Carpenter & Company Ltd does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise the material herein, regardless of new data, or otherwise. This document is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial instrument or reinsurance program. This report is proprietary to Guy Carpenter & Company Ltd. The dissemination, reproduction or use of this report without Guy Carpenter & Company Ltd's express written permission is prohibited.