APPENDIX 2D: APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GERMANY (SCENARIOS, MITIGATION, IDENTIFYING RISKS, ADAPTATION)
Note: There is a wide range of activities related to climate change and spatial planning in Germany. It is not possible to cover all activities of the 16 federal states, their agencies and research institutions within the limits of this review. We tried to reduce this complexity by focusing at the federal state level on northern Germany and the topics „Costal Management‟ (States of Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, Niedersachsen) and „River Management along the river Elbe‟ (States of Sachsen, Brandenburg). By identifying key projects within these states we exemplarily show pilot projects related to our research question.
Table 1: Forecasting Climate Change (Germany) Topic Key organisations/institutions involved in forecasting climate change Approach Federal Ministries: (1) BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research. BMBF is the key ministry for funding/commissioning research, for example by establishing DEKLIM, the German Climate Research Programme. (2) BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. BMU is funding/commissioning research via its Federal Environmental Agency (BUA) (3) WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory Council on Global Change. WBGUs mission is to describe and assess the current environmental situation and current environmental trends, as well as to point out environmental problems and suggest possible ways and means of preventing or correcting them. As part of its mission, it issues a report every two years which is submitted to the German federal government. The reports describe and comment on current environmental policy developments and deal with several topics in depth. In addition, the Advisory Council issues special reports in which specific environmental problems are examined extensively. In order to be able to advise the federal government in a timely manner before important environmental decisions are made, the Environmental Council issues statements and comments in which it
Approach formulates recommendations with regard to current environmental policy matters, such as, for example, with regard to currently planned legislation or funding/commissioning research. As an advisory council it is not directly involved in forecasting but has great influence on what will be done in the future. Federal Institutions: (4) UBA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency. Preparation, assessment and evaluation of scientific basis on climate change and its consequences. Deduction of environmental qualities and environmental aims of action. Collaboration in developing international treaties for climate change (convention on controlling climate change, Kyoto-Protocol). This includes the preparation of future scenarios of climate change and the formulation of strategies for mitigation and adaptation. (5) DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst / National Meteorological Service. Germany‟s National Meteorological Service is responsible for meeting meteorological requirements arising from all areas of economy and society in Germany. Their area of responsibility is defined by the statutory tasks of providing information and performing research as laid down in the Law on the Deutscher Wetterdienst. DWD provides data basis on contemporary climate necessary for climate research. Its short-term forecast models are a basis for long-term models necessary for climate change forecast. Research Institutions governmentally funded/ endorsed: (6) DEKLIM, Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm / German Climate Research Programme. The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) has launched this Climate Research Programme which supports the National Climate Protection Programme and the Federal Government's Sustainability Strategy. The German Climate Research Programme pursues the following key objectives: To improve the understanding of the climate system and of how it can be influenced by humankind. To reduce uncertainties in analysis and forecasting. To derive strategies for dealing with climate change. DEKLIMs key major aims are the increased integration of the results of German research in the international assessment of climate development (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/IPCC) and providing basic know-how and guidance in the field of practical climate protection measures. DEKLIM supports a wide range of
Approach different research programmes partly dealing with forecasts. (7) PIK, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, / Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Founded in 1992 PIK was to run in a radically holistic approach. On the one hand scientists from all relevant disciplines (i.e. meteorology, ecology, economic sciences, systems analysis, etc.) should work together closely and without bias (“horizontal integration”), on the other hand all aspects of the relevant problem (from its formulation to proposals for its solution for decision-makers) should equally be considered (“vertical integration”). The possibilities to contain human-induced (“anthropogenic”) climate change at a tolerable level, together with suitable measures to adapt to the unavoidable warming of the planet (with its particularly grave consequences for the poorest developing countries), should be at the core of the institute‟s research. As an interdisciplinary institute PIK is involved in climate forecasting as well as in research on impacts and adaptation measures. (8) DKRZ, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum / German Climate Computing Centre. The German Climate Computing Centre is the national German service centre for climate researchers. By its article of association, DKRZ is responsible to install and operate a high performance computer system for basic as well as applied research in the field of climatology and related disciplines. Its basic task is the provision of computer power for quantitative computation of complex processes in the climate and earth system with sophisticated, realistic numerical models. The DKRZ also maintains facilities for storage and management of extremely large data sets including software tools and hardware. The DKRZ is a coordinating node in the national and European network of climate researchers. it has the third biggest climate computer worldwide. (9) Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie. The major objective is to undertake a system analysis of the Earth System dynamics with emphasis on the Earth Climate. More specifically, aim of the institute is to analyse the natural variability in the Earth system, and assess how the system is affected by changes in land-use, industrial development, urbanization, and other humaninduced perturbations. Among the tools used by MPI-Met scientists are advanced numerical models that simulate the behaviour of the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions between these different components of the Earth‟s system. Within a wide range of different research programmes partly dealing with forecasts. (9.1) M&D, the Model and Data group. M&D is hosted at the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie. The group's mission is to provide central support
Approach for the German and European climate research community. Emphasis is on application of climate models and climate data. (10) GKSS, Forschungszentrum Geesthacht. GKSS is one of the fifteen national research facilities that belong to the HGF (Hermann von Helmholtz Society of German Research Centres). The GKSS Institute for Coastal Research (IfK) and its application-oriented, interdisciplinary "Water and Climate in Coastal Areas" research program are dedicated to studying the condition, the changes, the dynamics and the use of coastal areas and their adjoining regions. The Institutes task is to discover the scientific bases for the effective and sustainable use of coastal regions. The results of the research are used by governmental bodies and social organizations to decide upon and assess measures that would alter the environment, as well as contributing to the efficient and cost-effective monitoring of the coastline. The work is organized into the subjects "Anthropogenic and natural regional changes", "Materials with future relevance in coastal regions", "Methods for monitoring coastal waters" and "Prognosis and control of coastal processes". (11) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung. Activities of the Institute focus on the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere with the objective of understanding regional and global changes of the climate and evaluating their consequences. Major issues include changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere by natural impacts and man‟s acting, the water cycle and natural catastrophes, processes in the stratosphere above about 12 km height and in the transition layer to the troposphere below as well as consequences of climate changes in sensitive regions. Work comprises a number of methods ranging from laboratory experiments on the degradation of ozone in test chambers and large field measurement programs with aircraft, balloons, and radar devices to the modelling of individual aerosols in the air and using the global stratosphere model. Novel measurement instruments and processes are developed and applied for measurements on the ground (soil humidity, turbulence in the air layer close to the ground), in the free atmosphere (balloon probes, aircraft sensors), and from satellites (ENVISAT environmental satellite with the MIPAS instrument). Models also cover the interaction with the biosphere (exchange of energy, water, and trace gases with plants). In cooperation with other Helmholtz Centers, models are coupled with all other components of the Earth‟s system. (12) FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JÜLICH. Project Management Jülich (PTJ) undertakes the project management of support programmes and research priorities for various contractors: above all for the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the
Approach Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWA), the Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMU) and also federal state ministries. Since all the processes in soil, water and air are closely intermeshed, the five Jülich environmental institutes cooperate in the interdisciplinary "Department of Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere". With their investigations, the environmental researchers provide findings on how the resources of soils, water and air can be used in a resource-conserving way and what role is played by plants. They perform environmental precaution research and supply forecasts for future developments in the environment. (13) DLR, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt / German Aerospace Center Climate research satellite data provided by the DLR offer global information about clouds, rain, water vapour, trace gases, temperature and vegetation. Together with ground and balloon measurements they make a significant contribution toward improving weather predictions and providing reliable basic information for climate models. Another application field is monitoring adherence to international environmental conventions such as the Kyoto Protocol. Satellite data are used to detect and analyse ozone concentration in the atmosphere as well as ground level ultraviolet radiation. Satellites play an important role in monitoring air quality and in determining suitable locations for solar power plants and wind energy converters. (14) GLOWA-ELBE - INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIETY IN THE ELBE RIVER BASIN The GLOWA-Elbe with its 19 partners is a part of the "Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle" (GLOWA) framework project founded by the BMBF, and is an example of integrative interdisciplinary and applicationoriented global change research. Main focus is the research of integrated strategies for wiser and sustainable management of water at local levels in consideration of global ecological interactions and basic socio-economic conditions. Aims Compilation and modelling of complex dependencies and in the interactions between hydrologcial cycle, climate, land use and society in Elbecatchment Derivation of regional climate futurescenarios Implementation of the developed instruments at the area of the Elbe River Basin for evidence of provident identification and analysis of problems and conflicts dependent on global change and deflaction of actions and strategies
Topic Organisational level at which forecasting is taking place
Approach The general climate change research is commissioned and financed on a national level by the two ministries BMBF / Federal Ministry of Education and Research and BMU / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. Research and forecasting is undertaken by the big research institutions stated above. The national research is focusing on basic research, on describing and understanding regional and sectoral climate phenomenon and developing more and more sophisticated climate models like ECHAM (global atmosphere model), REMO (regional atmosphere model) or Baltimos (integrated regional model for the Baltic Sea). In this respect German climate research is well advanced, although forecasting on a national level is weak. The results of this basic research support global forecasts e.g. as from the IPCC and they are used in regional forecasts on a federal state level. The 16 states of Germany with their ministries and institutions support a wide range of regional focused climate change research programmes that are covering regional forecasts as well as considerations of impacts. There rarely is a strict distinction between forecasting and identifying impacts. An overview of these activities is nearly impossible. The two mentioned projects ‘Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations‟ and the ‘Scenario on Climate Change for the State of Saxony‟ are examples for these activities founded and endorsed by the regional federal level. Regional forecasts are not integrated into a national forecast. You may say that they reflect the federal structure of Germany.
Topic The methods used for forecasting
Approach NOTE: On a national political level the international IPCC forecast is widely used. The ”Fourth Assessment Report” is scheduled for 2007. The German research community developed a range of climate models like ECHAM (global atmosphere model), REMO (regional atmosphere model) or Baltimos (integrated regional model for the Baltic Sea) used for specific research. These climate models are general ones and they are used to generate regional specific forecasts by combining them with local weather data or other data like e.g. GIS based information on land use. The resolution of the forecast is depending on data input and the combination of climate models. The already mentioned projects ‘Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations‟ and the ‘Scenario on Climate Change for the State of Saxony‟ are examples for this regional use of climate models developed by national research institutions, similar research is taking place in the other 14 Federal States. (15) IPCC Method: IPCC combines worldwide research to which Germany is contributing. IPCC provides a holistic view on global climate change. Output: Based on 4 Scenarios over a timescale of 100 years: A1: high economic growth A2: heterogeneous world with traditional values B1: clean technologies and a rejection of materialism B2: local solutions for economic and ecologic sustainability IS 92: a „nothing will change‟ approach IPCC general forecast for northern Europe: temperature will rise for between about 1,4 ° and 5,8 ° rise in continental droughts in summer more frequent and intense rainfalls increased intensity of winds rise of sea levels increase in extreme weather situations Data is generated on a scale of 1000x1000 km2
Approach Availability Data mainly in charts is easily available via internet. Despite the low resolution IPCC is regarded as useful on a national level, as it creates a general awareness. (16) Global Model: ECHAM Method: Various model systems have been developed on the basis of ECHAM, e.g. ocean-atmosphere model, atmosphere model including the sulphur-cycle, etc. A chemistry-climate model has been developed in cooperation with the DLR: ECHAM/CHEM, which regards tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. It is applied for the simulation of the development of the ozone layer as well as for the simulation of ozone-smog situations. In contrast to chemical transport models, which simulate the chemical evolution during observed meteorological situations, ECHAM/CHEM is based on a climate model and therefore suited for the simulation of the future development of chemical composition of the atmosphere, including all climate-chemistry interactions. Output: ECHAM calculates in time steps of 20 to 40 min. the development of weather system on the globe (temperature, winds, clouds) in a horizontal resolution of about 300 to 500 km, depending on the version. (17) REGIONAL MODEL: REMO Method: The regional climate model Remo has been developed at the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie Hamburg. REMO is mainly based on the weather prediction model EUROPAMODELL of the DWD. It has been extended by additional parameter, as they are part of climate model ECHAM4 and linked to the oceanic model BMSO. Output: It appeared that the regional climate model REMO is able to reproduce observed rainfalls, steam contents, amounts of water drainage. (18) REGIONAL MODEL: BALTIMOS
Approach Baltimos is a Climate Model for the Baltic Sea developed by the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie and others, funded by the BMBF.) Method: Baltimos aims at describing a regional climate model that is more detailed and therefore more exact in its predictions than global models and their general outputs. Baltimos links existing components for the atmosphere (REMO), for the Baltic Sea and Seaice (BSIOM), for Hydrologie (LARSIM) and Inland Lakes and Vegetation (Baltimos) Output: Baltimos will describe the circulation of Water and Energy in the Baltic Area and can be used for a regional precise climate change forecast. Availability: The climate model will be available in 2005. (19) FORECAST: SCENARIO ON CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE STATE OF SAXONY. (FU Berlin, Institut für Meteorologie, Sächsisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie): Method: Based on the global climate model ECHAM4 by the DKRZ the Institut for Metrology of the FU Berlin described a regional scenario for Saxony based on a statistical downscaling. It is a single scenario for the next 50 years and mainly aimed on general specifications of climate change impacts for the region, especially in relation to the role of the Erz Mountains. Output: Mean annual temperatures will rise by 2,7°, up to 4°in spring. Sunshine duration will increase, especially in spring and summer, while rainfalls will decrease. The dry climate is accompanied by extreme weather situations, especially torrential rain, increasing risks of floods along rivers. Against the global trend to increased rainfalls in winter, it is expected that this will not apply for parts of Saxony. (windward and leeward effects of the Erz Mountains)
Approach Availability: An abstract with charts and maps is available via internet. (20) FORECAST: BEST - BRANDENBURG SIMULATOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS (PIK Potsdam, Ministry for Agricultur and Ecology of the Federal State of Brandenburg) Method: The consistent integration of relevant environmental and societal processes and the explicit representation of human dimensions is the main scientific challenge of BEST. More broadly, the project will contribute to the advancement of regional integrated modelling and agent-based modelling. The regional simulator aims at representing the complex integrated regional dynamics of societal and environmental development on the timescale of decades to a century. On this timescale, global change may significantly impact on Brandenburgs natural resources. Changes in culture, individual life style and political preferences may have an additional strong influence on resource use and vulnerability to climate change. To integrate productivity estimates in agriculture and forestry with the flow of water and substances through the region, the linkage of the hydroecological model SWIM and the forest dynamics model 4C is pursued as one initial task. Agent-based descriptions of resource use and societal dynamics are linked to the physically based models of the environment. Agriculture, forestry and the water sector will serve as foci in the study of societyenvironment interactions, exploring plausible futures and understanding historic developments. BEST combines the climate models SWIM and 4C with descriptions of resource use to make a forecast for the federal state of Brandenburg in relation to agriculture and forestry. Climate change is described in 2 scenarios till 2055: Temperature (+1,4°) Rainfall (-10% postponement on winter period) increased sunshine duration decreased cloud cover. Availability: A detailed Report is available via internet. It contains both maps and data that can be used by decision makers
Approach (21) FORECAST: GLOWA ELBE (BMBF, PIK) Method: Based on the regional climate model REMO, there are four focus points of the project: Modelling of the Elbe as a whole, from climate models related to local environments up to land use structures Large-scale water management modelling with integrated socio-economic analysis in the Spree/Havel region Analysis of and model adaptation to specific research questions in sub-regions Integrated strategies for the sustainable settlement of water use conflicts. Output: Climate Szenario 2050; no climate protection temperature rise 1,4°C rainfalls decline up to 200mm with exceptions in Harz Mountains and Thüringer Wald strong decline of rainfalls in summer, slightly increase in winter. Groundwater renewal decreases on 60% of contemporary level
Availability: A detailed interim report is available via internet, the final report will be published this year after GLOWA-Elbe I conference. Data on Climate change forecasts are available only within text documents, not being really useful for decision makers.
Topic Compatibility with spatial planning
Approach On the federal Level IPCC forecast is widely used. Its general data mainly increases the general awareness instead being of great practical value for spatial planning. There is no specific national climate change forecast. On the regional level there are a lot of forecasts related to the federal states (e.g. BEST and the forecast for the Federal State of Sachsen) or to regional ecosystems (GLOWA Elbe). These forecasts are often part of action/policy oriented projects communicated mainly within these projects. Data is highly compatible within the special project but the outputs of climate change forecasts are not automatically published and summarized in a way that they are easily understandable for a wider public.
A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of climate change forecasting.
The strength of German climate change research is the profound basic research both in paleo and neo climatology as well as in modeling. It is a necessity to improve the understanding of fundamental weather principles in order to make predictable forecasts on a regional level. (25) Its weakness is a lack of climate change forecast. You may say, that the expected impacts of climate change in Germany had been regarded as insignificant. The flood events and the extreme heat periods of recent years have changed this appraisal and lead to a wide range of research on a regional and federal state level, the amount of forecasts is to a certain extent dependent on regional impacts from recent events. (28) Although more needs to be done, the regional structure of climate change forecasts in Germany is a good approach. It allows to focus on regional climate situations in mountain areas, lowlands, coastal zones, along rivers etc. A too strong generalization is avoided and forecasts can easily linked to action oriented measures.
Any indication of future work planned in climate change forecasting.
Climate modeling is still at an early stage. As a foundation for any valid forecasts and related policies, basic research into the Earth‟s paleoclimate and a systematic analysis of existing data from different parts of the atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of climate variability e.g. is regarded as essential. (23,25). The WBGU recommended in the mid 90ies a greater development of Integrated Regional Models and an organization of transdisciplinary and transinstitutional research networks for studying issues of sectoral and political relevance. On a regional level this recommendation have been and will be carried out. DEKLIM is a first step from basic research to action oriented research. The BUA is currently discussing how forecasting within the federal structure of Germany can be integrated into a common structure. It is essential that forecasts become comparable and can be integrated on a national level. This is seen as a first step to develop a concept for adaptation policies. A paper will be published this year. (28)
Topic Key documents used
Approach (1) BMBF http://www.bmbf.de/forschung/index.php (2) BMU http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/sachthemen/klima/kurzinfo/ (3) WBGU http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_gutachten_haupt.html (4) BUA http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/index-e.html (5) DWD http://www.dwd.de/en/en.htm (6) DEKLIM http://www.deklim.de/seiten/default.htm (7) PIK http://www.pik-potsdam.de/ (8) DKRZ http://www.dkrz.de/dkrz/intro_s (9) Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/ (9.1) Modelle und Daten www.mad.zmaw.de (10) GKSS http://www.gkss.de/index_d_js.html (11) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe
Approach http://www.fzk.de/ (12) Forschungszentrum Jülich http://www.fz-juelich.de/portal/ (13) DLR http://www.dlr.de/ (14) Glowa Elbe http://www.glowa-elbe.de/index_en.html (15) PIK www.pik-potsdam.de (16) IPCC www.ipcc.ch (17) The general circulation model ECHAM. DLR. Source:http://www.dlr.de/ipa/Forschung/Instrumente/ECHAM/;internal&action=_setlanguage.action?LANGUAG E=en Language: German / English (18) Das Klimamodell REMO. FU Berlin Source: http://secus.met.fu-berlin.de/forschungsprojekte/pr_16.htm Language: German (19) Baltimos www.baltimos.de (20) Klimaprognose für Sachsen - Zusammenfassender Bericht. FU Berlin. Source: http://www.tu-chemnitz.de/wirtschaft/ewi/links/kw.php Language: German (21) Studie zur klimatischen Entwicklung im Land Brandenburg bis 2055 und deren Auswirkungen auf den
Approach Wasserhaushalt, die Forst- und Landwirtschaft sowie die Ableitung erster Perspektiven. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 2003. Source: http://www.proka.de/start.htm?/ipool/forsch/klima/klima-rep.htm Language: German (22) Overview on the most important research achievements and on method development in GLOWA-Elbe. F. Wechsung, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Source: http://www.glowa-elbe.de/index1_en.html Language: German / English (23) Deutscher Bundestag, Drucksache 14/6529. Paläöklimaforschung in Deutschland –Stand, Ergebnisse, Perspektiven (03.07.2001). Source: www.deklim.de/download/dokumente/KlAnfrPaleo.pdf Language: German (24) DLR. Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm DEKLIM (2001- 2006) Kick-Off-Meeting 2002. Source: http://www.deklim.de/download/dokumente/Tagungsband_Kickoff.pdf Language: German (25) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). World in Transition: The Research Challenge. Springer Verlag, Berlin, 1997 Source (pdf): http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg1996_engl.html Language: German / English (26) Future activities on the field of climate modelling. Taskgroup BMBF Source: http://www.meteo.uni-bonn.de/deutsch/forschung/bmbf_final.html Language: German (27) Forschung für den Klimaschutz – Stand und Perspektiven. Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), Referat Öffentlichkeitsarbeit. (28) Interviews Dr. Sartorius UBA, Frau Hornemann UBA.
Table 2: Mitigation (Germany) Topic Key organisations/institutions involved in producing/providing information on mitigation of climate change Approach Federal Ministries: BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. The Ministry for the Environment is the key institution in climate change mitigation. It formulates legislative initiatives and pushes the discussion from an environmental point of view, (see also climate change) BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research. BMBF is the key ministry for funding/comissioning research, for example by establishing DEKLIM, the German Climate Research Programme, (see also climate change) (1) BMF, Bundesministerium für Finanzen / Federal Ministry of Finance Financing mitigation measures like tax reductions and the ecological tax reform are highly depending on the BMF. (2) BMWA, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit BMWA is responsible for politics that have direct or indirect significance for climate protection, especially in relation to energy policies. (3) BMVBW, Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bauen und Wohnen / Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing. BMVBW i s responsible for politics that have direct or indirect significance for climate protection, especially in relation to transport, building and housing. IMA „CO2 Reduction, interministerielle Arbeitsgruppe / inter ministry task group formed by the ministries for research, energy, traffic and building, agriculture, finances and ecology. It is a key institution in mediating among the ministries.
Approach WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory Council on Global Change (mission see climate change) Federal Institutions: BUA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency (mission see climate change) (4) KREDITANSTALT FÜR WIEDERAUFBAU A bank owned by the federal government (80%) and the federal states (20%). It‟s official mission is anchored in the KfW law. The KfW Group gives impetus to economic, social and ecological development on a global scale. With its long-term, low-interest loans KfW promotes small and medium-sized enterprises, for example. In addition, the bank stimulates innovations and the equity capital market, advances environmental protection and encourages the expansion of municipal infrastructure. Research Institutions governmentally funded/endorsed: (5) Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie / Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment The Wuppertal Institute explores and develops environmental policy guidelines, strategies, and instruments in order to promote sustainability at the regional, national, and international level. The main focus lies on ecology and its interrelation with the economy and society. Special emphasis is put on decoupling the use of natural resources from the increase of wealth. OTHER INSTITUTIONS: (6) BDI BDI is the central association of German industries. BDI represents the economic policy interests of the industry among parliament, government and the EU. The BDI negotiated with the German government the self commitment of the German industry to reduce CO2 emissions, preventing legal interventions.
Federal State Institutions: Note: Federal State Ministries mainly implement policy produced on the national level. Nevertheless they run own climate protection programmes. Some of them are exemplarily mentioned in the following. Ministry for Ecology, Nature and Forestry of the federal State of Schleswig-Holstein / Ministerium für Umwelt, Natur und Forsten des Landes Schleswig-Holstein Saxony Ministry for Ecology and Agriculture / Sächsisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt und Landwirtschaft Saxony Agency for Ecology and Geology / Sächsisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie (LfUG) Organisational level at which information on climate change mitigation is prepared Policy on mitigation is mainly produced on a national level and then implemented at federal state level. The national climate protection programme describes all actions taken by national ministries to reduce CO2 emissions till 2005 up to 70 million tons (for details see „practice‟). (7) The report „Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection‟ (16, to be published 2004) evaluates the implemented measures of the federal government on climate protection since 1998 in relation to the year 2010. Moreover the report will describe measures that will ensure the government can meet its commitment to reduce CO2 emissions furthermore to 2030. The conclusion of the report serve as a contribution to IMA CO2 reduction. Project partners for the report are the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (FhG-ISI), Oeko-Institut. The Environmental Report 2002 (15) sums up the environmental policy since change of government in 1998. As remarkable examples it points out the denuclearization and the associated Energiewende (Energy Change) as well as the progress in climate protection.
Approach Regional level: Besides the implementation of national regulations the federal states run their own measures in climate change mitigation. They mainly aim on energy saving and the support of eco friendly energy sources and are similar to the national programme. E.g. the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein specially supports wind energy, the federal state of Sachsen runs a solar-initiative. In detail, measures are listed in documents like: „The Sustainable Strategy for a future-compliant Schleswig Holstein‟ or the „Climate Protection Programme of the Federal State of Sachsen‟. (17,18,21) Local level: 1892 German cities and local communities passed resolutions on the local Agenda 21. The activities in course of the local agenda 21 are accordingly wide spread. The local agendas implement a wide range of small measures aiming -besides others- on energy saving and eco-friendly energy production for example in schools or public buildings. The effect can hardly be quantified, but shouldn‟t be underestimated, especially as they also have an educational effect.
What topics does mitigation information cover? Compatibility with spatial planning? What is the country doing in practice to mitigate against climate change
Mitigation information covers all aspects mentioned in the national climate protection program, see „practice‟ below. The action taken is only partly compatible with spatial planning. The 100.00 roof programme and the Climate protection program for the building stock aims more on building regulations than on spatial planning. (7) The main measures are laid out in the national climate protection programme which is then implemented at the regional and local level. They cover: (7) Ökologische Steuerreform / ecological tax reform (12) Stepwise increasing of energy prices as a stimulus for the development and use of new technologies. Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz / renewable energy sources act (8,10) promotion of new energy technologies
Approach 100.000 roof programm. Promotion of photovoltaic investments Kraft-Wärme Kopplung / Power-Heat Coupling Energieeinsparungsverordnung / Reduction of energy consumption. Reduction of energy consumption of new buildings by 30 % in relation to existing buildings, obligation for refitting old buildings Wärmeschutzverordnung / Climate protection programme for the building stock. Providing cheap credits for the refitting of old buildings via the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau Selbstverpflichtungserklärung der deutschen Wirtschaft / self commitment of the German industry. (11) Commitment to reduce the specific CO2 emission till 2012 for up to 28%. Legislative measures by the government are set out for this time. LKW Maut / Truck Toll Pricing for trucks using highways to create to push transport towards train use. Tax reduction for fuel saving cars Emission trading (13) Implementation of EU regulations Öko Audit (20,22) Based on an EU initiative the Öko Audit has been widely implemented. On a voluntary base companies can engage themselves in ecological management in order to reduce energy consumption, pollution etc. to a higher degree then expected by law. Incentive to participate is an optimized energy input which means lower production costs.
A summary of the strengths and
Germany is generally regarded as a leading nation in climate change mitigation and in promoting international
Topic weaknesses of the country’s approach to mitigation.
Approach progress in climate change policy. To lead the way in a calculated manner offers good chances for ecological and economic progress. The „Renewable Energy Sources Act‟ received international attention and is part of a wider concept of „ecological modernization‟ including the agrarian sector, fiscal-, traffic- and town planning policies. Overall Germany is forward looking in terms of climate change mitigation with several innovative policies. (27) Nevertheless essential shortcomings are pointed out that might negatively influence future progress: CO2 Reduction of the past is to a great extent regarded as a result of the re-unification and decreased emissions in east Germany and a result of the economic stagnation of the last decade. Shrinking public awareness for questions of ecological policy in general. The general success in cutting CO2 emissions conceals the fact, that emissions in the traffic sector and the building stock are still increasing High aims in formulating policies but shortcomings in the translation of measurements. The reason is mainly seen in the fragmentation of decision making processes. While the BMU, the youngest and smallest ministry, is responsible for formulating reduction aims the implementation lies within the responsibility of other ministries, the task group „IMA CO2 reduction‟ is widely regarded as a second best solution. (23) The sub optimal organization of climate change policy within the central government as a cross sectional task is regarded as a crucial point for future progress. The „Renewable Energy Sources Act‟ ensures subsidised prices for renewable energies. This is boosting wind power plants, but in the same time it reduces incentives for German companies to export their technologies. Several subsidies with impacts on climate change are still existing, for coal-mining industries, commuters and home owners for example. The german policy on mitigation is quite far ahead. Nevertheless there is a discussion on the future role of Germany in this field of policy between the ministry for economics and the ministry for the environment (BMWA and BMU). While BMU wants to reduce national CO2 emissions not only by 25% but by 40% in the long run (15), the implementation of emission trading is regarded by the BMWA as a reason to remove subsidies for renewable energies within the Renewable Energy Act. The economic stagnation is used to argument against a further leading role of Germany in questions of mitigation. Future action in this field of policy is therefore not predictable. In terms of mitigation it is likely that it will stagnate on a high level. General information on institutions:
Any indication of future work planned on climate change and mitigation.
Key documents used
Approach (1) BMF, Bundesministerium für Finanzen / Federal Ministry of Finance www.bmf.de (2) BMWA, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit / Ministry of Economics and Labour www.bmwa.de (3) BMVBW, Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bauen und Wohnen / Federal Ministry for Traffic, Building and Housing www.bmvbw.de (4) KfW, Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau / KfW banking group www.kfw.de (5) Wuppertal Institut http://www.wupperinst.org/ (6) BDI www.bdi-online.de National documents: (7) Nationales Klimaschutzprogramm, Beschluss der Bundesregierung vom 18. Oktober 2000 (Fünfter Bericht der Interministeriellen Arbeitsgruppe „CO2-Reduktion“). Source: http://www.bmu.de/de/800/nj/download/b_klimaschutzprogramm2000/ Language: German (8) BMU, Amending the Renewable Energy sources Act. The government draft of 17 December 2003 in detail. Source: http://www.bmu.de/en/800/nj/english/download/b_eeg_hintergrund_031217_uk/ Language: German / English (9) Third Report by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany in accordance with the Framework
Approach Convention of the United Nations Source :http://www.bmu.de/de/800/js/klimschutz/download/b_klima/ Fortschrittsbericht 2004 Language: German (10) BMU, New research focus for renewable energies. Source: http://www.bmu.de/en/800/nj/download/research_focus/ Language: German / English (11) Vereinbarung zwischen der Regierung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der deutschen Wirtschaft zur Minderung der CO2 Emissionen und der Förderung der Kraft-Wärme Kopplung in Ergänzung zur Klimavereinbarung vom 9.11.2000. Source: www.bewag.de/db_files/d455b3_f2f609fbb7_-6f28192616861660/ Vereinbarung_110501.pdf Language: German (12) Die Ökologische Steuereform: Einstieg, Fortführung und Fortentwicklung zur Ökologischen finanzreform. Source: http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/download/b_oekosteuerreform/ Language: German (13) BMU-Hintergrundpapier zum Emissionshandel. Source: http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/download/b_hintergrund_pm237/ Language: German (14) Hrsg. Stein, G., Strobel, B., Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz, Untersuchungen im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes. Band 5: Szenarien und Maßnahmen zur Minderung von CO2-Emissionen in Deutschland bis 2020. Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich, Reihe Umwelt, Band 20, Jülich 1999. Language: German (15) Umweltbericht 2002 http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/presse/2002/pm077/ Language: German
Approach (16) Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz http://www.fz-juelich.de/ste/index.php?index=63 Language: German Federal States documents: (17) Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein, Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie Zukunftsfähiges Schleswig Holstein. Source: http://landesregierung.schleswigholstein.de/coremedia/generator/Aktueller_20Bestand/StK/Information/Ministerpr_C3_A4sidentin/nachhaltigkei t.ht Language : German (18) Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein, Klimaschutz für Schleswig-Holstein - Handlungsfelder und Beispiele. Ministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Landwirtschaft. 1999 Source: www.landesregierung.schleswig-holstein.de Language: German (19) Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein, Umweltgerechtes Planen und Bauen in Schleswg-Holstein – Kriterien, Beispiele, Bilanzen. 1999 Source: http://www.landesregierung.schleswigholstein.de/coremedia/generator/Aktueller_20Bestand/IM/Brosch_C3_BCre_20_2F_20Publikation/Umweltgere chtes_20Planen_20und_20Bauen_20in_20Schleswig-Holstein.html Language: German (20) Öko Audit Schleswig Holstein: http://www.umwelt.schleswig-holstein.de/?27646 Language: German (21) Climate Protection Programm of the Federal State of Sachsen / Klimaschutzprogramm des Freistaates Sachsen. Sächsisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt und Landwirtschaft; Dresden 2001
Approach (22) Frauenhofer Institut, Öko Audit Source : http://www.ipsi.fraunhofer.de/oeko-audit/ablauf.html Language: German (23) Klimapolitik in Deutschland: Eine Problemanalyse aus Expertensicht Alexandra Böckem HWWA DISCUSSION PAPER 91. Source: www.hwwa.de/Projekte/Forsch_Schwerpunkte/FS/ Klimapolitik/PDFDokumente/Boeck_2000a.pdf Language: German (24) The German Advisory Council on the Environment. Environmental Report 2002 - Towards a New Leading Role. Source: Source : http://www.umweltrat.de/english/eframe01.htm Language: German / English (25) Christoph Matschle, MdB, Überlegungen zur Zukunft sozialdemokratischer Umweltpolitik – von regulativer Umweltpolitik zu einem kooperativen Management staatlicher Umweltpolitik. Rede vom 8.10.1999. Source: http://www.matschie.de/service/reden.php Language: German (26) Edeltraud Günther. Aufgaben- und Organisationsstruktur der Umweltpolitik in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Dresdner Beiträge zur Betriebswirtschaftslehre Nr. 40 / 2000. TU Dresden Source: http://www.tu-dresden.de/wwbwlbu/forschung/download/uebersicht.htm Language: German (27) Interviews Dr. Sartorius UBA, Frau Hornemann UBA.
Table 3: Climate change risks/impacts (Germany) Topic Key organisations/institutions involved in providing information on risks/impacts on key sectors Approach NATIONAL LEVEL BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research BMBF is the key ministry for funding/comissioning research, for example by estabilshing DEKLIM, the German Climate Research Programm that is also working on risks and impacts (mission see mitigation) BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. BMU is funding/comissioning research via its Federal Environmental Agency BUA, (mission see climate change) WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory Council on Global Change (mission see climate change) BUA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency (mission see climate change) Federal State Level: Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry of the Interior, Coastal Defence Division NLWK, Niedersächsisches Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft und Küstenschutz / Lower Saxony Water Management and Coastal Defence Agency. Research organisations: DEKLIM, (mission see climate change) PIK, (mission see climate change)
Approach Research Projects: COMRISK (7,8,9) COMRISK is a multinational joint project of five states situated on the north sea. COMRISK aims at improved coastal flood risk management through a transfer and evaluation of knowledge and methods as well as pilot studies. Two German subprojects are part of COMRISK: Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry of the Interior, Coastal Defence Division. Topic: Public perception of coastal flood defence and participation in coastal flood defence planning in the North Sea Region Lower Saxony Water Management and Coastal Defence Agency (NLWK). Topic: Risk assessment for the barrier island Langeoog Results will be compiled in a subproject report and presented at the COMRISK conference in April 2005 KRIM – “Climate Change and Preventive Risk and Coastal Protection Management on the German North Sea Coast" (11) Part of DEKLIM is the interdisciplinary KRIM joint project. It has the goal of providing orientation and action knowhow for the future task of society as a whole entailing "risk management in coastal protection under conditions of uncertainty". The expectations of society with regard to future-oriented coastal protection indicate that it is urgently necessary to make targeted and practice-oriented contributions to issues and fields in which this was not or did not seem necessary before. These issues can be summarized in the central question of the joint project: What demands are made on future coastal protection that is to be included in integrated coastal zone management due to an accelerated rise in the sea level and greater frequency and intensity of extreme events and what social interpretation patterns and decision-making procedures influence this process? Subprojects of KRIM are: "Coastal Defence", "Ecology", "Political-administrative Processes of Control", "Regional Economic Risk Analysis", "Public Responses to Global Climate Change", "Integrative Analysis and Decision Support System" The KRIM-Climate scenario for the year 2050: Sea level: +55 cm Average tidal rise: +25 cm Wind (Dec/Jan/Feb): +7% (shifting from NW to N)
Approach Temperature atmospheric: +2.8 °C Precipitation: +10% Anatol-storm surge: HHTHW +55 cm +10 cm +200 cm KRIM runs till 2005 and has not published more detailed research results jet. MERK - a micro-scale risk evaluation study for selected coastal lowlands along the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts. Forschungs- und Technologiezentrum Westküste, Universität Kiel. (10) For several coastal cities a detailed risk potential analyses was carried out for categories like buildings, hotels, traffic infrastructure and agriculture, each in relation to their location above sea level. For the city of Timmendorfer Strand alone a risk potential of approximately. 1.5 billion EUR is predicted. Schleswig Holstein expanses on about 3.730 km2 of land and approximately 1/ 4 of its surface is potentially endangered by storm tides. 344.000 people are living and working in this area with a tangible asset of around 45 Mrd. EUR. Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations, PIK Potsdam, Brandenburgisches Agrar- und Umweltministerium. Details above. (12) DIFU, Deutsches Institut für Urbanistik / German Institute for Urban Affairs. (13) The next heat wave surely comes: How can local authorities avert impacts? Symposium to be held in April 2004 will discuss impacts on citizens, wildlife and vegetation, measurements to prevent „heat islands‟ in urbanized areas and other opportunities for action. Others: Münchner Rückversicherung (2-5) German reinsurance company that has its own research group on geoscience and climate change forecast. Within the risks/impacts topic we have a similar situation as within climate forecast. On a national level explicit risk research is rare. Publicly available is WBGUs 1998 report on strategies for managing global environmental risks. (1)
Organisational level at which information on risks/impacts on key sectors is prepared
Approach MunichRe as the biggest reinsurance company is forcing the public discussion on risk awareness and insurance regulations but has not much data easily available. (2-5) Action orientated information on risks and impacts of climate change is mainly prepared on a regional level in course of climate change research, rarely as explicit risk research like the MERK programme. Research concentrates on flood risk in relation to climate change. Other sectors e.g. general impacts on nature conservation, agriculture, buildings, etc. get less emphasis. (8-13) You may say, that the local level reacts more on its own experiences of negative effects of climate change, rather than on forecasts. The Symposium „The next heat wave surely comes‟ held by the City of Stuttgart and the DIFU is an example for such an experience based reaction. (14) Sector Note: The list of topics mentioned reflects the diverse research landscape, the structure follows your proposal and is not an official list of impact research. Environmental Nature conservation (12) Forestry (5,12) Water resources (12) Historic environment (1,12) Housing (1,7,12) Impacts/Risks
Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife. Some species will decline. Steppe-vegetation will partly arise Increased risk of forest fire Damages by increased peak wind intensities Water shortages decreased regeneration of ground waters Increased level of water pollution Historic Landscapes will change their character Steppe-vegetation will partly arise High risk by floods Damages by increased peak wind intensities Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability
Approach Health (1,13) Increased incidence of death and serious illness in older age groups and urban poor, Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors Falling harvests, prices will rise Unpredictable reaction of people on future climate change events Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought- and flood prone regions Damages by increased peak wind intensities Change of landscape character will harm tourism, especially in structurally weak regions Shift in tourist destinations Low water levels on rivers as well as high water levels and floods by extreme rains High risks from floods High risks trough floods as well in coastal zones as well as in river areas Increased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkage Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure Increased pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and disaster relief
Nutrition (1) Risk tolerance (1) Agriculture (7,12) Tourism (1,10) Shipping (12) Harbours Building Stock (7,11) Infrastructure (7,11) Financial sector (2,14)
A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the country’s approach to identifying risks/impacts in key sectors
The strengths and weakness of the Germans approach to identifying climate change impacts is strongly related to strength and weaknesses of climate change forecasting. The strength of german climate impact research is its regional, action orientated approach. It allows to focus on regional climate situations in mountain areas, lowlands, coastal zones, along rivers etc. A too strong generalization is avoided and impacts can easily implemented to action oriented measures. Although there is quite a lot impact research on a regional level three main weaknesses can be identified: its lack of nationwide statements and comparability;
Approach the event oriented focus of impacts research concentrating on flood related impacts today; and the rare publication of research results. Public awareness is lower as it should be/could be.
Any indication of future work planned on identifying impacts/risks
DEKLIM (15) is a first step into a broader action oriented climate change and impact research. The BUA is currently discussing how forecasting and impact research within the federal structure of Germany can be integrated into a common structure. It is essential that impact research becomes comparable and can be integrated on a national level. This is an step to develop a general awareness to get the political feedback to implement concepts for adaptation policies. A paper will be published this year. (16)
Topic Key documents
Approach (1) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) World in Transition: Strategies for Managing Global Environmental Risks. Springer, Berlin, 2000 Source: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg1998_engl.html Language: German / English (2) Wolfgang Kron. Versicherung von Hochwasserschäden. In: Heinz Patt (ed.) Hochwasserhandbuch. Springer Berlin 2001. Language: German (3) Dr.-Ing.Wolfgang Kron, High water and Floods: Resist them or accept them? In: schaden spiegel 3/2003, a publication of the Munich Reinsurance Company Source: www.munichre.com Language: English (4) The economy of climate. In: TOPICS 2/2003, a publication of the Munich Reinsurance Company Source: www.munichre.com Language : English (5) Windstorm loss potentials in Europe – accumulation aspects. In : Winter storms in Europe (II) Analysis of 1999 losses and potentials. A publication of the Munich Reinsurance Company Source: www.munichre.com Language : English (6) Umweltbundesamt. Klimaschutz 2001 – Tatsachen Risiken, Handlungsmöglichkeiten. Source: Umweltbundesamt.de Language: German (7) COMRISK General information: www.comrisk.org Language: English (8) COMRISK Subproject 3 Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry of the Interior, Coastal Defence Division. Public perception of coastal flood
Approach defence and participation in coastal flood defence planning Source:www.comrisk.org/html/public_perception_and_particip.html Language: English (9) COMRISK Subproject 9 NLWK, Lower Saxony Water Management and Coastal Defence Agency, Risk assessment for the barrier island Langeoog. Source: http://www.comrisk.org/html/subprojects.html language: English (10) MERK Geographisches Institut der Universität Kiel Mikroskalige Evaluierung der Risiken in überflutungsgefährdeten Küstenniederungen – MERK Source: http://www.geographie.uni-kiel.de/index.php Language: German (11) KRIM University of Bremen, Faculty 2, Dept. Aquatic Ecology, Climate Change and Preventive Risk and Coastal Protection Management on the German North Sea Coast (KRIM) Source: http://www.krim.uni-bremen.de/englisch/indexenglisch.html Language: English (12) BEST - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations PIK, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. www.pik-potsdam.de (13) DIFU. Deutsches Institut für Urbanistik www.difu.de (14) Interview: Dr. Sartorius, Frau Hornemann UBA. Wolfgang Kron, Münchner Rück (15) DEKLIM
Table 4: Adaptation (Germany) Topic Key organisations/ institutions involved in producing information on adapting to climate change Approach Federal Ministries: BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, (mission see climate change) BMVEL, Bundesministerium für Verbraucherschutz, Ernährung und Landwirtschaft / Federal Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture. National Forestry Programme. In a wide dialog among all social groups the need for action in developing forest and forestry was evaluated. As a foundation for future forestry adapting to climate change 182 recommendations for action had been worked out BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The research Project ‚Future Oriented Forestry‟ shows possibilities and consequences of a conversion of monoculture pine forests to mixed ones. BMVBW, Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bauen und Wohnen / Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing. As the analyse of damages of recent floods verify, structural damages on buildings are avoidable by an adapted method of building. As there is no binding regulation by law on flood protecting buildings, the Hochwasserschutzfibel shows the different opportunities to reduce increased flood risks with climate change. BMI, Bundesministeriums des Innern / Federal Ministry of the Interior. The BMI is responsible for disaster control and is reorganising its institutions on new duties in course of climate change based on experiences made in recent catastrophes like the 2002 Elbe-Flood. WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory Council on Global Change. WBGU gave several recommendations to the federal government how to adapt to climate change. Federal Institutions: BfN, Bundesamt für Naturschutz / Federal Agency for Nature Conservation
The concept of combining biotopes became lately part of the Federal Nature Protection Act. In several projects the Agency develops a conceptual basis for combining biotopes which partly relate to climate change. BUA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency (mission see climate change) AKNZ, Akademie für Krisenmanagement, Notfallplanung und Zivilschutz Research Institutions governmentally funded/ endorsed: Dresden Flood Research Centre. Integrated and governance-oriented flood risk management research in the transnational Elbe river basin. After the Elbe flood 2002, which caused the highest flooding damage ever in Europe, most activities had to be put into rebuilding and in economic and social support of people affected. The contribution of science mainly referred to collecting and assessing data to describe the bygone event. Supposing that time after flooding is already time before next flooding a lot of unanswered questions in terms of future flood risk management appear. These questions are primarily identified in scientific disciplines which traditionally work in the field of water research. Considering the complex effects of the Elbe flood on the society the necessity of comprehensive transdisciplinary approaches is evident. This means that natural and social science need to be addressed within societal flood risk management. But applicable scientific approaches covering the whole complexity of this issue are still missing. They have to integrate high level baseline research as well as applied and governance-oriented research. Acknowledging that this kind of research can-not be dealt with by individual institutes, the Dresden Flood Research Centre was founded. It is considered to be a platform of integration between its members as well as between its European partners. The Centre aims at the identification of the research demands for a flood risk analysis and management with effective pre-flood, event and post-flood measures. The approach includes scientists with different disciplinary expertise as well as representatives of science and environmental policy. The main object of the research done by the Dresden Flood Research Center is the transnational Elbe river basin. At the same time the working approach is as well targeted on the overall European dimension and will include the knowledge that can be derived from other parts of Europe and the world. IOER, Institut für Ökologische Raumentwicklung / Institute of Ecological and Regional Development. The IOER carries out interdisciplinary research into the fundamental issues and national, European and international implications of an ecologically-based approach to land use and management sciences. This involves looking at the requirements for building and housing, regional, and town and country development from a variety of angles, while being guided by ecological considerations. Of central importance are the initial conditions and development perspectives, as well as the strategies, methods and tools needed for ecological spatial development. It is strongly
related to the Dresden Flood Research Centre. Geographisches Institut der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel / Geographic Institute ChristianAlbrechts-University Kiel. The Institute combines climate research and risk management with a focus on coastal management. PIK, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, / Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, (mission see climate change) DIFU, Deutsches Institut für Urbanistik / German Institute for Urban Affairs. Research Institution funded by german cities and mainly dealing with urban planning. DIFU is just starting to get involved in climate change adaptation on an urban level by discussing how to prevent the cause for „heat islands‟ (Hitzeinseln) in urbanized areas to prevent related health problems. Organisational level at which information on climate change adaptation is prepared . Adaptation policy is just upcoming mainly as a reaction on recent flood events and drought periods. There is no clear definition what adaptation has to deal with. Event related information and guidances are prepared on all federal levels with different intensity (16). Adaptation information on flood prevention and forestry is well developed on all levels, while health related adaptation measures to prevent „heat islands‟ (Hitzeinseln) in urbanized areas are just discussed on a local level. Sector What sectors does adaptation information cover? Environmental Forestry Adaptation Measure (1) Transform monoculture forests into mixed forests with a higher biodiversity and persistence against phenomenon of climate change. (2)Enabling forests to bind more water and produce more ground water.
(3) The concept of habitat networks or combined biotops became lately part of the Federal Nature Protection Act. At least 10 % of Germany should work as combined biotopes. To establish this system criteria must be defined on a national level. Combined biotopes allow species to change their habitat and adopt to climate change. Along the former boarder of east and west Germany a connected biotope emerged due to its isolation for the last 50 years. It needs to be protected against future urbanisation. (15) The „Informal Plan for the River Wesenitz‟ gathered information from all levels of research and administration to create a basis for local and intercommunal action. The plan shows areas with potentially increased drainage and related flood areas. Decentral flood protection measures are indicated on a medium scale of 1:100.000. The plan has an informal character and only gives advice for measurements for preventional flood protection from a holistic spatial point of view. This is regarded as an essential contribution of spatial planning towards a comprehensive management of river areas. (9), (12) Restrain high tides by: enhancing the ability of soil to drainage rain by reducing the use of land. relocating dykes along rivers to create flooding areas. appropriate land use in relation to the local situation, avoiding potential flood areas or hillside locations Tallagen endangered by erosion. controlling settlement development to minimize potential risks.: indicating flooding areas for whole rivers in local plans with common standards (5) Support adaptation of agriculture to climate change by: choosing, cultivating and supporting new crops adapted to local phenomenon of climate change. establishing long term observation fields. conducting basic research.
(6) Adapt building stock to risks of flooding, support knowledge on appropriate building techniques. (7) Save energy and water in buildings, reduce heating and cooling costs due to the expected pressure on water sources and energy supply due to climate change. (14) Some federal states implemented a duty for cold water meters to give incentives to save water. (8) There is a need for a risk responsible citizen. Who is informed on global environmental risks, is incorporated in critical decisions making and should share decisions even if they may prove to be wrong Further support of local communities and of local agendas to create a wide social process on climate change awareness (9) Develop new instruments of coordination, like deNIS (German Emergency Provision Information System) Extension of the Koordinierungsstelle für großflächige Gefährdungslagen (Coordination Agency for Extensive Danger Situations) (10) Extension of the AKNZ, Academy for Crisis Management, Emergency Planning and Civil Defence to enhance its ability to create networks among Science and practice. Preparation of risk potential assessments.
(8) Empowerment of NGOs. Especially the right to bring a suit might integrate ecological aspects into the current social debate. (8) Educate and advise people to modify their behaviour towards a change in climate. (13) Prevent the cause for „heat islands‟ (Hitzeinseln) in urbanized areas
Is there any legislation or policy in relation to the above sectors which sets out things they must do to adapt to climate change? Compatibility with spatial planning A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the country’s approach to adaptation
(8), (11) Economic incentives play a major role in avoiding future risks. By relating insurance contributions to individual precautionary measures these incentives can be implemented. The climate change event Germany is suffering most of are the floods of recent years. Adaptation is strongly related to this topic. There are various legislative initiatives mainly aiming on regional and local level of spatial/urban planning. For details see task 5. Adaptation information on floods is wide spread and highly compatible with spatial planning (see Task 5 for details) Flood related adaptation policies are a strength of the German approach. Germany lacks an overall idea/concept which fields of policy adaptation has to deal with, partly because there is no specific national forecast on climate change and its impacts. While there is a national climate protection programme aiming on mitigation, there is no national climate change adaptation programme. There is a need for more structured research on climate change adaptation responses. (16) The BUA is currently discussing how adaptation within the federal structure of Germany can be integrated into a common structure. It is essential that adaptation becomes integrated field of policy on the national level. A paper will be published this year. (16) (1) NWP, Nationales Waldprogramm Deutschland / National Forest Programme for Germany – Manual for the second phase Source: www.nwp-online.de Language: German / English (2) BMBF. Zukunftsorientierte Waldwirtschaft / Future Oriented Forestry Source: http://www.ecomplaints.de/wald/wald.pdf (3) BfN, Biotopverbünde / Combined Biotops. Source: www.bfn.de/03/030503.htm Language: German (4) BfN, Grünes Band / Green Stripes. Source: www.bfn.de/02/020201_gruenesband.html Language: German (5) Harald Gebhardt, Klimaveränderungen und Auswirkungen auf Ökosysteme. KLIWA Symposium 2000.
Any indication of future work planned in relation to climate change and adaptation measures. Key documents used
Source: http://www.kliwa.de/de/ergebnisse/media/vortrag20.pdf Language: German (6) Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau -und Wohnungswesen, Hochwasserschutzfibel - Planen und Bauen von Gebäuden in hochwassergefährdeten Gebieten. Source: http://www.bmvbw.de/Information-.922.12291/.htm Language: German (7) Hessisches Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Verkehr und Landesentwicklung, Energie sparen, Heizkosten senken, CO2Ausstoß mindern. Ratgeber zur energetischen Gebäudemodernisierung. Source: www.hessen.de/wirtschaft Language: German (8) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) World in Transition: Strategies for Managing Global Environmental Risks. Springer, Berlin, 2000. Source: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg1998_engl.html Language: German / English (9) 5 Punkte Programm der Bundesregierung: Arbeitsschritte zur Verbesserung des vorbeugenden Hochwasserschutzes. (2002) Source: http://www.bmvbw.de/Information-.922.12653/.htm Language: German (10) Akademie für Krisenmanagement, Notfallplanung und Zivilschutz, Neue Strategie zum Schutz der Bevölkerung in Deutschland (2003) Source: http://text.bmi.bund.de/downloadde/24609/Download.pdf Language: German (11) 7 Punkte Programm des IOER zum Hochwasserschutz im Einzugsbereich der Elbe. Source: http://www.ioer.de/presse/pdf/pr190802a.pdf Language: German (12) DIW Wochenbericht 12/03, Marktkonforme Versicherungspflicht für Naturkatastrophen - Bausteine einer Elementarschadenversicherung
Source: www.diw.de/deutsch/produkte/publikationen/wochenberichte/docs/03-12-1.html Language: German (13) DIFU, Die nächste Hitzewelle kommt bestimmt : Wie können Kommunen Schaden abwenden ? Source: www.DIFU.de Language: German (14) Federal Laws on water meters. http://www.enco.de/gesetz/kaltwasser.html Language: German (15)Der informelle Plan zum vorbeugenden Hochwasserschutz – ein Beispiel aus dem Flußeinzugsgebiet der Wesenitz / Sachsen. In: FORUM GEOÖKOL.12 (3), 2001 Language: German (16) Interviews Dr. Sartorius BUA, Frau Hornemann UBA. In Germany there is a greater focus on climate change mitigation than adaptation. This imbalance is recognized and will be balanced in the future.
Balance between mitigation of and adaptation to climate
Table 5: Overall conclusions (Germany) Topic National/regional funding allocated to climate change programmes Focus of country’s approach Approach Preliminary data: Climate research was founded by the federal governement in the years 1998-2000 with 84 Mill. EUR (neoclimatologie 50 Millionen EUR, paläoclimatologie 11 Millionen EUR, modelling 23 Millionen EUR). In Germany there is a greater focus on climate change mitigation than adaptation. This imbalance is recognized and will be balanced in the future. On the federal level there is a greater focus on basic research, while the federal state level puts a focus on climate change forecasting / climate change impacts within action oriented research projects. A stronger integreation of these wide spread projects will take place in the future. Generally useful within projects Not aufgearbeitet for wider public A stronger contribution to mitigation seems necessary. The UK approach to forecasting climate change draws on knowledge from scientists and presents information in an understandable and readily available format. Similarly information on mitigation, impacts and adaptation is based on sound scientific knowledge and presented and made readily available to policy makers and planners.
Usefulness for and compatibility with spatial planning. How well integrated is the approach to climate change across scientists and policy makers. Brief conclusions on positive/good and negative/poor aspects