FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday, by fjzhangm

VIEWS: 8 PAGES: 23

									NEWS Release 1615 L Street, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4350 Fax (202) 419-4399

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, October 22, 2009

Modest Support for “Cap and Trade” Policy FEWER AMERICANS SEE SOLID EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut, Director Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research Pew Research Center for the People & the Press 202-419-4350 http://www.people-press.org

Modest Support for “Cap and Trade” Policy FEWER AMERICANS SEE SOLID EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
There has been a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. And fewer also see global warming as a very serious problem – 35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 4 among 1,500 adults reached on cell phones and landlines, finds that 57% think there is solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades. In April 2008, 71% said there was solid evidence of rising global temperatures. Over the same period, there has been a comparable decline in the proportion of Americans who say global temperatures are rising as a result of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels. Just 36% say that currently, down from 47% last year.
Changing Opinions about Global Warming
April Oct Is there solid evidence 2008 2009 Change the earth is warming? % % Yes 71 57 -14 Because of human activity 47 36 -11 Because of natural patterns 18 16 -2 Don’t know (Vol.) 6 6 0 No 21 33 +12 10 +2 Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.) 8 100 100 How serious a problem? Very serious Somewhat serious Not too serious Not a problem Don’t know (Vol.)

44 29 13 11 3 100

35 30 15 17 3 100

-9 +1 +2 +6 0

Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

The decline in the belief in solid evidence of global warming has come across the political spectrum, but has been particularly pronounced among independents. Just 53% of independents now see solid evidence of global warming, compared with 75% who did so in April 2008. Republicans, who already were highly skeptical of the evidence of global warming, have become even more so: just 35% of Republicans now see solid evidence of rising global temperatures, down from 49% in 2008 and 62% in 2007. Fewer Democrats also express this view – 75% today compared with 83% last year.

Across Partisan Lines, Fewer See Solid Evidence of Global Warming
91 86 78 62 49 53 Rep 35 83 75

75 Dem Ind

79 59

2006

2007

2008

2009

1

Despite the growing public skepticism about global warming, the survey finds more support than opposition for a policy to set limits on carbon emissions. Half of Americans favor setting limits on carbon emissions and making Cap and Trade: companies pay for their emissions, even if this may Little Awareness, Modest Support lead to higher energy prices; 39% oppose imposing Heard… limits on carbon emissions under these A A Nocircumstances. Lot Little thing Setting limits on Total This issue has not registered widely with the public. Just 14% say they have heard a lot about the so-called “cap and trade” policy that would set carbon dioxide emissions limits; another 30% say they have heard a little about the policy, while a majority (55%) has heard nothing at all.
carbon emissions Favor Oppose Don’t know (Vol.) % of public % 50 39 11 100 % 32 64 3 100 14 % 58 32 10 100 30 % 50 36 13 100 55

Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

The small minority that has heard a lot about the issue opposes carbon emissions limits by two-to-one (64% to 32%). More Republicans (20%) and independents (17%) than Democrats (8%) have heard a lot about cap and trade. Among the much larger group that has heard little or nothing about the issue, most support it (58% little, 50% nothing). With less than two months before the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, a majority (56%) of Americans think the United States should join other countries in setting standards to address global climate change while 32% say that the United States should set its own standards.

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Shifts on Global Warming Opinions about global warming changed little between 2006 and 2008. In August 2006 and January 2007, 77% said there was solid evidence that the earth’s temperatures were increasing; that figure fell modestly to 71% in April of last year.

Opinions about Global Warming 2006-2009
Aug Jan April Oct Is there solid evidence 2006 2007 2008 2009 the earth is warming? % % % % Yes 77 77 71 57 Because of human activity 47 47 47 36 Because of natural patterns 20 20 18 16 Don’t know (Vol.) 10 10 6 6 No 17 16 21 33 7 8 10 Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.) 6 100 100 100 100

Among those who saw solid evidence of global warming, most said it Q41 & Q42. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. was largely caused by human activity, such as burning fossil fuels; in all three of those surveys, 47% of the public expressed this view. Far smaller percentages – including just 18% in 2008 – said it was mostly caused because of natural environmental patterns. Currently, 57% say there is solid evidence of rising global temperatures, while 33% say there is no solid evidence. Fewer than four-in-ten (36%) now say global warming is mostly caused by human activity such as Most Republicans See No Solid Evidence burning fossil fuels, while 16% say it is of Global Warming occurring mostly because of natural Aug Jan April Oct environmental patterns. A majority (53%) of independents say there is solid evidence of warming, including 33% who say it is mostly caused by human activity. But this is far lower than in April 2008 when 75% said global warming was happening and 50% said it was due to human activity. The proportion of Republicans saying there is solid evidence of global warming declined from 62% in 2007 to 49% in 2008. The balance of opinion among Republicans has shifted, with a majority (57%) now saying there is no hard evidence of global warming. The drop among moderate and liberal
Republicans Yes, solid evidence of warming Because of human activity Because of natural patterns Don’t know (Vol.) No solid evidence of warming Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.) Democrats Yes, solid evidence of warming Because of human activity Because of natural patterns Don’t know (Vol.) No solid evidence of warming Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.) Independents Yes, solid evidence of warming Because of human activity Because of natural patterns Don’t know (Vol.) No solid evidence of warming Mixed/Don’t know (Vol.) 2006 2007 2008 2009 % % % % 59 62 49 35 31 29 27 18 19 27 16 13 8 6 6 3 33 31 42 57 9 7 9 8 100 100 100 100 91 57 23 11 5 4 100 79 54 17 8 14 6 100 86 83 59 58 19 20 9 5 8 10 6 6 100 100 78 75 47 50 18 18 13 7 14 18 8 7 100 100 75 50 18 7 17 8 100 53 33 15 5 35 12 100

Q41 & Q42. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

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Republicans has been particularly steep; 41% now say there is solid evidence of global warming, compared with 69% last year. The decline among conservative Republicans has been more modest (from 43% to 32%). There has been less change in opinions among Democrats. Three-quarters of Democrats (75%) say there is solid evidence the earth is warming, including 50% who say that it is mostly because of human activity. In April 2008, 83% of Democrats said the earth is warming and 58% attributed it to human actions. More liberal Democrats than conservative and moderate Democrats say the earth is warming (83% vs. 72%), and far more liberal Democrats say that global warming is caused by human activity (69% vs. 43%).
Regional Differences over Global Warming
% who say there is solid evidence earth is warming Total 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ College grad+ Some college HS or less Conserv Rep Mod/Lib Rep Independent Cons/Mod Dem Liberal Dem April Oct 2008 2009 Change % % 71 57 -14 74 74 70 64 70 71 72 43 69 75 80 91 64 55 59 50 58 57 56 32 41 53 72 83 -10 -19 -11 -14 -12 -14 -16 -11 -28 -22 -8 -8 Oct N 1500 197 406 485 369 560 410 508 252 107 543 297 160

There also are strong regional Northeast 73 60 -13 287 differences in opinions about global warming; Midwest 64 48 -16 350 Great Lakes 69 49 -20 225 fewer people living in the Mountain West Plains 53 45 -8 125 (44%) and the Midwest (48%) say there is solid South 71 61 -10 555 Atlantic 74 66 -8 293 evidence of warming than in other regions. Central 68 54 -14 262 77 58 -19 308 Similarly, there have been sharp declines since West Mountain 75 44 -31 111 April 2008 in the proportion who say the earth Pacific 78 65 -13 197 is warming in the Mountain West (75% to 44%) Q41. and the Great Lakes region (69% to 49%). Both regions have also seen large drops in the percentage who say that warming is caused by human activity. (For a breakdown of states and regions, see About the Survey, pg. 10.)

4

Fewer See Warming as Very Serious Problem A majority (65%) of the public continues to view global warming as a very (35%) or somewhat (30%) serious problem. But in April 2008, 73% expressed this view, including 44% who thought it was a very serious problem. About a How Serious a Problem third (32%) says global warming is not too serious Is Global Warming? (15%) or not a problem at all (17%). Last year, 24% July Jan April Oct said it was little or no problem. From 2006 to 2008, 2006 2007 2008 2009 % % % % these numbers had been quite stable. Very serious 43 45 44 35 Partisan differences also are evident on evaluations of the seriousness of global warming. About half (49%) of Democrats say global warming is a very Q43. Figures may not add to 100% because of serious problem, down from 57% in April 2008. Far rounding. fewer conservative and moderate Democrats say global warming is a serious problem than did so last year, widening the gap between them and liberal Democrats. Currently, 39% of conservative and moderate Democrats say it is a very serious problem compared with 70% of liberal Democrats. A third of independents now say global warming is a very serious problem, a decline of 13 points from last year. Only 14% of Republicans say that global warming is a very serious problem, down from 22% in April 2008. Just 20% of moderate and liberal Republicans now say that global warming is a very serious problem, down from 35% last year. Only 10% of conservative Republicans now say global warming is a very serious problem. People living in the Midwest (30%) and the Mountain West (26%) are the least likely to view global warming as a very serious problem. There have been modest declines across regions, but they are particularly steep in the West (52% April 2008 to 36% now). Young people are now far more likely than older Americans to view global warming as a very serious problem. Across all age groups, except those younger than 30, the
Democrats Divided Over Seriousness of Global Warming
% who say global warming is a very serious problem Total 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ College grad+ Some college HS or less Republican Conserv Rep Mod/Lib Rep Democrat Cons/Mod Dem Liberal Dem Independent Northeast Midwest South West Mountain Pacific
Q43.

Somewhat serious 36 Not too serious 11 Not a problem 9 Don’t know (Vol.) 1 100

32 12 8 3 100

29 13 11 3 100

30 15 17 3 100

April Oct 2008 2009 Change % % 44 35 -9 41 48 44 41 44 45 44 22 18 35 57 52 67 46 45 39 43 52 44 55 46 34 33 25 33 40 34 14 10 20 49 39 70 33 39 30 36 36 26 41 +5 -14 -11 -16 -11 -5 -10 -8 -8 -15 -8 -13 +3 -13 -6 -9 -7 -16 -18 -14

Oct N 1500 197 406 485 369 560 410 508 365 252 107 473 297 160 543 287 350 555 308 111 197

5

percent who think warming is a very serious problem has declined since April 2008. As expected, views about the seriousness of global warming are also related to whether people think there is solid evidence the earth is warming and whether it is human caused. A third of those who do not think there is solid evidence of global warming say it is a very or somewhat serious problem while 65% say it is not too serious or not a problem at all.
A Third of Warming Skeptics Still Say It Is a Serious Problem
Solid evidence of warming … Yes, Yes, No human natural solid activity patterns evidence % % % Very serious 67 27 10 Somewhat serious 30 38 23 Not too serious 2 23 24 Not a problem 1 8 41 5 2 Don’t know * 100 100 100

By comparison 65% of those who say that N 519 233 529 the warming is mostly caused by natural patterns in Q43. Figures may not add to 100% because of the earth’s environment say global warming is at rounding. least a somewhat serious problem. Nearly all (97%) who think the earth is warming mostly because of human activity say it is a problem. These numbers are largely unchanged from April 2008. In January 2009, global warming ranked at the bottom of the public’s list of policy priorities for the president and Congress this year. Only 30% of the public said it should be a top priority, down from 35% a year ago. More than twice as many Democrats (45%) as Republicans (16%) rank global warming as a top priority, along with 25% independents. Global warming is the lowest-rated priority for both independents and Republicans and ranks sixteenth for Democrats among 20 issues. (Economy, Jobs Trump All Other Policy Priorities in 2009 Jan. 22).

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Cap and Trade Barely Registers As the health care debate has dominated the public’s attention, awareness about cap and trade legislation is quite low. A majority (55%) of the public has heard nothing at all about the cap and trade policy being considered by the president and Congress that would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions. Only 14% have heard a lot and 30% a little about this policy. More Republicans (20%) and independents (17%) than Democrats (8%) have heard a lot about cap and trade although more Democrats have heard a little. Conservative Republicans are hearing the most; more than a quarter have heard a lot (28%) about the policy.
Most Have Heard Nothing about Cap and Trade
------- Heard ------A lot A little Nothing DK % % % % 14 30 55 1=100 20 28 4 8 7 11 17 28 29 25 36 38 34 28 52 41 70 56 55 54 54 1=100 1=100 1=100 1=100 *=100 1=100 1=100

Total Republican Conserv Rep Mod/Lib Rep Democrat Cons/Mod Dem Liberal Dem Independent

More people who say there is no solid evidence of global warming have Is there solid evidence heard a lot about cap and trade than those of global warming? Yes 10 33 57 1=100 who think temperatures are rising (24% vs. Because of human activity 10 36 54 *=100 Because of natural patterns 10 26 63 1=100 10%). But more of those who say that No 24 27 49 1=100 warming is caused mostly by human Q55. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. activity have heard a little about the proposed policy than those who say there is no evidence of warming (36% vs. 27%).

The most recent survey of the public’s knowledge by the Pew Research Center, released Oct. 14, found that just 23% of the public could correctly identify that the cap and trade legislation being discussed in Congress deals with energy and the environment; 48% were unsure and 29% said incorrectly that it deals with health care, banking reform or unemployment. More Republicans (27%) and independents (29%) correctly identify cap and trade as dealing with energy and the environment than Democrats (15%). (See Well Known: Public Option, Sonia Sotomayor; Little Known: Cap and Trade, Max Baucus).

7

Carbon Emissions Limits Favored Half of the public favors setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices. About four-in-ten (39%) oppose this and 11% are unsure or do not offer an opinion. Conservative Republicans are the only political group in which a majority (60%) opposes setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions. Most moderate and liberal Republicans (51%) favor this policy, as do an identical percentage of independents and a majority of Democrats (58%). There also are wide regional differences in opinions about cap and trade. More people living near the Pacific coast (62%) and the Northeast (56%) favor limiting carbon emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices than those living in the South (46%), Midwest (44%) and Mountain West (42%). More college graduates favor this policy than those with a high school education or less (59% vs. 43%), but there are very few differences by age.
Views of Carbon Emissions Limits
Favor Oppose DK % % % 50 39 11=100 49 51 51 44 59 53 43 36 29 51 58 53 70 51 56 44 46 56 42 62 42 39 39 37 32 37 44 50 60 32 31 36 22 40 33 43 42 35 45 30 9=100 9=100 10=100 18=100 9=100 10=100 13=100 13=100 11=100 17=100 11=100 11=100 9=100 9=100 11=100 13=100 11=100 10=100 13=100 8=100

Total 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Col grad+ Some college HS or less Republican Conserv Rep Mod/Lib Rep Democrat Cons/Mod Dem Liberal Dem Independent Northeast Midwest South West Mountain Pacific Is there solid evidence of global warming? Yes Because of human activity Because of natural patterns No

Opinion about cap and trade is related to views about global warming. About threefourths (74%) of those who think the earth is Q56. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. warming and it is mostly caused by human activity favor cap and trade legislation. By comparison, 41% of those who say warming is due to natural patterns in the earth’s environment favor limiting carbon emissions. But even 31% of those who say there is no solid evidence of rising temperatures favor cap and trade.

62 74 41 31

28 18 48 60

10=100 8=100 11=100 9=100

8

Public Supports Global Initiatives A majority (56%) of Americans thinks the United States should join other countries in setting standards to address global climate change while 32% say the U.S. should set its own standards; 5% say neither and 6% are unsure. These numbers are similar to those in 2001 and 1997 when the public was asked about setting standards to improve the global environment. More Democrats (66%) than Majority Supports Joining Other Countries to Address Global Climate Change independents (53%) or Republicans (47%) say the U.S. should join other countries in Join Set other own Neither/ setting standards to address global climate DK countries standards other change. Three-quarters of those who say % % % % Total 56 32 5 6=100 the earth is warming mostly because of 47 39 9 4=100 human activity think the U.S. should join Republican Conserv Rep 41 45 11 2=100 Mod/Lib Rep 61 27 6 5=100 with other countries in setting standards to Democrat 66 26 2 6=100 address global climate change. By Cons/Mod Dem 62 29 2 6=100 Liberal Dem 77 21 0 2=100 comparison, 51% of those who say Independent 53 34 6 7=100 warming is due to natural patterns in the earth’s environment and 42% who say the Q44. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. earth is not warming think the U.S. should join other countries in setting standards to address climate change.

9

DETAILED TABLES
Q.41 From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not? (If yes) Q.42 Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, or mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment?

APRIL 2008
Earth is warming % 71 68 74 74 68 74 74 70 64 69 66 79 69 68 79 77 70 71 72 70 70 73 68 73 66 74 73
Mostly because of … Human (VOL.) Natural activity patterns DK/Ref % 47 45 48 51 41 54 50 44 37 48 42 54 41 44 53 43 51 49 43 51 47 44 52 50 45 48 44 % 18 17 19 18 19 17 19 20 16 17 17 19 20 17 21 30 14 17 22 14 19 22 11 19 18 20 22 % 6 6 6 4 8 3 5 6 11 4 7 5 8 6 5 5 5 5 7 5 4 7 4 5 3 5 7

OCTOBER 2009
Not warming % 21 25 17 20 23 19 20 24 21 25 26 14 21 24 14 17 23 23 20 25 22 19 26 24 27 18 19 (VOL.) Mixed/ DK/Ref % 8 7 9 6 9 8 6 6 15 6 8 7 10 8 7 6 7 7 9 5 8 8 6 3 7 9 8 Earth is warming % 57 54 61 59 55 64 55 59 50 54 52 63 58 53 68 66 58 57 56 56 51 66 54 59 50 52 66
Mostly because of … Human (VOL.) Natural activity patterns DK/Ref % 36 32 39 39 31 47 34 35 25 34 31 44 32 33 41 39 40 38 31 38 33 37 38 37 30 35 37 % 16 16 15 15 17 14 15 18 16 16 17 14 18 14 21 24 12 15 19 13 13 22 11 15 11 14 22 % 6 5 6 5 7 3 6 5 8 5 5 5 8 5 6 3 7 3 6 5 6 6 5 6 8 3 6

TOTAL SEX Men Women AGE 18-49 50+ DETAILED AGE 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ SEX BY AGE Men 18-49 Men 50+ Women 18-49 Women 50+ RACE White NH Total Non-White Black NH EDUCATION College grad Some college HS or less INCOME $75,000+ $30,000-$74,999 <$30,000 DETAILED INCOME $100,000+ $75,000-$99,999 $50,000-$74,999 $30,000-$49,999 <$30,000

Not warming % 33 36 30 32 35 28 35 35 35 35 38 29 32 39 20 19 35 34 32 38 39 23 40 35 41 37 23

(VOL.) Mixed/ DK/Ref % 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 7 15 10 9 8 10 9 12 15 7 9 11 6 10 12 6 7 9 11 12

(Oct N) 1500 760 740 603 854 197 406 485 369 305 434 298 420 1127 337 149 560 410 508 445 477 375 275 170 221 256 375

10

DETAILED TABLES
Q.41 From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not? (If yes) Q.42 Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, or mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment?

APRIL 2008
Earth is warming % 71 49 83 75 43 69 80 91 64 56 74 74 70 75 63 66 72 76 75 73 64 71 77 73 69 53 74 68 75 78
Mostly because of … Human (VOL.) Natural activity patterns DK/Ref % 46 27 58 50 22 42 50 75 41 33 49 51 44 58 32 46 47 57 48 51 44 43 53 51 48 36 44 42 41 57 % 19 16 20 18 15 19 24 13 18 16 19 17 20 11 26 16 21 17 17 17 15 21 19 17 15 15 23 19 24 16 % 6 6 5 7 6 8 6 2 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 3 10 5 5 7 6 5 6 3 7 6 9 5

OCTOBER 2009
Not warming % 22 42 10 18 48 22 11 8 26 33 19 20 22 18 25 26 20 17 17 19 25 22 18 19 22 32 22 22 21 17 (VOL.) Mixed/ DK/Ref % 7 9 6 7 9 10 8 1 9 11 7 6 8 8 11 8 8 6 7 8 11 7 5 8 9 15 5 10 5 5 Earth is warming % 55 35 75 53 32 41 72 83 48 44 53 55 53 63 50 53 59 58 63 60 48 61 58 60 49 45 66 54 44 65
Mostly because of … Human (VOL.) Natural activity patterns DK/Ref % 35 18 50 33 16 23 43 69 27 23 32 34 32 45 31 30 37 38 40 39 28 37 39 39 30 25 42 30 25 46 % 15 13 18 15 13 14 23 10 16 17 15 14 13 12 12 18 19 13 17 13 13 20 14 13 13 12 20 21 14 14 % 6 3 7 5 3 4 6 4 4 3 6 7 8 6 7 5 3 7 5 9 7 4 5 9 6 8 4 3 5 5

REGISTERED VOTER PARTY ID Republican Democrat Independent PARTY AND IDEOLOGY Conservative Republican Mod/Lib Republican Mod/Cons Democrat Liberal Democrat RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE Total White NH Prot. White NH evang. Prot. White NH mainline Prot. Total Catholic White NH Cath. Unaffiliated CHURCH ATTENDANCE More than once a week Once a week Once or twice a month A few times a year Seldom/Never REGION Northeast Midwest South West DETAILED REGION Northeast Great Lakes Plains South Atlantic South Central Mountain Pacific

Not warming % 35 57 17 35 62 48 19 13 44 50 36 37 39 26 41 35 33 35 28 30 42 32 30 30 40 45 28 38 42 24

(VOL.) Mixed/ DK/Ref % 10 8 8 12 5 10 9 4 8 7 11 7 8 11 9 12 8 7 10 10 11 7 12 10 11 10 6 8 15 11

(Oct N) 1250 365 473 543 252 107 297 160 616 327 289 317 251 219 215 412 190 249 390 287 350 555 308 287 225 125 293 262 111 197

11

DETAILED TABLES
Q.41 From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not? (If yes) Q.42 Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, or mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment?

APRIL 2008
Earth is warming % MARITAL STATUS Married Not married MARITAL STATUS BY SEX Married men Married women Unmarried men Unmarried women EMPLOYMENT Employed Not employed AMONG REPUBLICANS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad AMONG DEMOCRATS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad AMONG INDEPENDENTS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad 67 76 63 71 73 78 70 73 44 54 52 47 46 51 80 86 85 82 88 82 73 77 79 69 75 75
Mostly because of … Human (VOL.) Natural activity patterns DK/Ref % 45 49 42 49 50 47 48 43 26 28 32 22 20 31 56 59 62 53 75 52 49 52 55 45 57 48 % 16 21 17 16 17 24 17 21 13 18 13 19 21 13 20 21 19 22 10 24 17 19 21 14 11 20 % 5 6 5 6 6 7 4 8 5 8 7 5 6 7 4 6 4 8 3 6 7 7 4 11 6 7

OCTOBER 2009
Not warming % 25 17 28 22 22 12 23 18 49 35 39 45 43 41 13 8 12 8 9 11 21 15 16 21 18 19 (VOL.) Mixed/ DK/Ref % 8 8 8 8 5 10 7 9 8 11 9 9 11 8 6 6 3 9 3 7 6 8 5 9 8 6 Earth is warming % 53 62 49 57 59 64 55 60 33 37 38 32 31 36 72 78 73 77 81 73 51 56 56 50 56 52
Mostly because of … Human (VOL.) Natural activity patterns DK/Ref % 32 40 31 34 35 44 34 38 14 23 21 14 16 18 45 54 53 47 63 45 34 32 36 28 36 32 % 14 18 14 15 20 16 16 16 15 12 13 13 11 14 20 17 16 20 12 21 15 16 14 16 11 17 % 7 4 5 8 5 4 6 6 4 3 3 4 4 3 7 6 4 10 6 7 3 8 5 6 9 4

Not warming % 39 27 43 34 27 27 37 28 61 53 55 59 63 56 19 15 20 14 14 18 35 34 31 39 36 34

(VOL.) Mixed/ DK/Ref % 8 11 8 9 13 9 8 12 6 10 7 9 6 8 9 8 7 9 5 10 14 10 13 11 8 14

(Oct N)

857 618 469 388 276 342 859 634 189 176 143 214 141 223 206 267 192 274 180 292 298 245 226 312 202 340

12

DETAILED TABLES
Q.43 In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?

APRIL 2008
Very serious % 44 43 46 46 43 41 48 44 41 43 43 48 42 41 54 57 44 45 44 40 44 49 43 35 37 49 49 Somewhat serious
%

OCTOBER 2009
Not a problem
%

Not too serious
%

TOTAL SEX Men Women AGE 18-49 50+ DETAILED AGE 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ SEX BY AGE Men 18-49 Men 50+ Women 18-49 Women 50+ RACE White NH Total Non-White Black NH EDUCATION College grad Some college HS or less INCOME $75,000+ $30,000-$74,999 <$30,000 DETAILED INCOME $100,000+ $75,000-$99,999 $50,000-$74,999 $30,000-$49,999 <$30,000

29 26 31 28 30 31 26 30 29 26 26 30 33 30 26 27 31 30 27 31 30 25 28 34 34 27 25

13 16 11 15 11 20 12 10 12 16 15 13 8 15 9 4 13 13 13 16 15 9 14 20 15 14 9

11 12 10 9 14 6 10 14 13 11 14 6 13 13 6 4 11 10 12 12 10 11 13 11 12 8 11

(VOL.) DK/Ref % 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 2 3 3 2 5 7 1 2 4 1 1 5 1 0 2 1 5

Very serious % 35 34 37 39 30 46 34 33 25 35 31 43 29 32 43 41 33 40 34 27 34 44 25 29 31 36 44

Somewhat serious % 30 27 33 32 28 32 32 27 30 31 22 33 34 30 31 25 32 25 32 36 31 29 35 36 33 29 29

Not too serious
%

Not a problem
%

(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

(Oct N) 1500 760 740 603 854 197 406 485 369 305 434 298 420 1127 337 149 560 410 508 445 477 375 275 170 221 256 375

15 15 15 13 17 11 14 16 20 12 19 13 16 16 12 18 15 14 15 17 15 13 20 13 13 16 13

17 22 12 14 21 8 18 21 20 20 26 9 16 20 9 9 18 17 17 18 19 11 18 18 20 18 11

3 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 5 2 5 7 1 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 0 3

13

DETAILED TABLES
Q.43 In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?

APRIL 2008
Very serious % 43 22 57 46 18 35 52 67 39 33 45 43 40 49 35 41 44 50 48 45 39 43 52 45 43 29 48 38 44 55 Somewhat serious
%

OCTOBER 2009
Not a problem
%

Not too serious
%

REGISTERED VOTER PARTY ID Republican Democrat Independent PARTY AND IDEOLOGY Conservative Republican Mod/Lib Republican Mod/Cons Democrat Liberal Democrat RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE Total White NH Prot. White NH evang. Prot. White NH mainline Prot. Total Catholic White NH Cath. Unaffiliated CHURCH ATTENDANCE More than once a week Once a week Once or twice a month A few times a year Seldom/Never REGION Northeast Midwest South West DETAILED REGION Northeast Great Lakes Plains South Atlantic South Central Mountain Pacific

29 29 28 29 26 40 31 24 28 25 33 32 33 31 28 30 28 27 30 33 30 29 23 33 29 31 27 31 22 24

14 24 7 12 27 14 9 4 15 19 9 15 16 9 18 14 11 15 9 11 15 13 13 11 14 19 12 14 21 10

12 23 5 9 27 11 7 1 15 19 11 8 9 10 14 12 11 6 11 10 13 11 9 10 11 18 10 13 12 8

(VOL.) DK/Ref % 3 2 3 3 2 0 1 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 5 2 5 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 1 3

Very serious % 33 14 49 33 10 20 39 70 25 22 30 32 33 46 33 28 34 34 44 39 30 36 36 39 28 33 37 34 26 41

Somewhat serious % 31 30 32 32 22 45 37 23 30 28 34 31 29 33 21 32 36 34 28 38 27 29 31 38 28 23 28 29 28 32

Not too serious
%

Not a problem
%

(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

(Oct N) 1250 365 473 543 252 107 297 160 616 327 289 317 251 219 215 412 190 249 390 287 350 555 308 287 225 125 293 262 111 197

15 20 11 16 23 13 14 4 17 20 14 17 18 8 18 16 14 19 10 9 18 15 15 9 20 15 13 18 19 13

19 35 6 16 44 19 7 4 25 29 20 18 19 12 25 19 16 11 16 12 21 18 15 12 18 29 18 18 27 9

3 2 3 4 2 2 2 0 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 4 1 3 3 2 4 2 3 2 6 0 4 1 0 5

14

DETAILED TABLES
Q.43 In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?

APRIL 2008
Very serious % MARITAL STATUS Married Not married MARITAL STATUS BY SEX Married men Married women Unmarried men Unmarried women EMPLOYMENT Employed Not employed AMONG REPUBLICANS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad AMONG DEMOCRATS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad AMONG INDEPENDENTS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad 44 45 41 46 45 45 44 45 23 21 25 20 18 25 59 55 56 59 68 53 44 50 47 45 44 47 Somewhat serious
%

OCTOBER 2009
Not a problem
%

Not too serious
%

(VOL.) DK/Ref % 2 4 1 3 4 3 2 4 1 2 0 3 1 2 3 3 4 2 0 4 4 3 4 3 3 4

Very serious % 30 42 30 29 39 45 34 37 9 19 16 11 12 15 49 49 54 44 52 47 34 31 35 29 30 34

Somewhat serious % 31 30 25 37 30 30 31 29 27 33 38 21 21 33 28 35 32 32 33 32 28 37 33 31 38 30

Not too serious
%

Not a problem
%

(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

(Oct N)

27 30 26 29 25 34 30 28 21 37 26 32 36 25 27 29 30 27 25 30 26 31 29 29 32 27

15 12 16 13 16 8 13 13 29 18 28 20 25 23 5 8 7 6 6 7 16 8 13 12 11 13

12 10 15 9 9 10 12 10 25 22 20 26 21 24 6 4 4 6 1 6 10 8 7 11 10 9

17 13 15 18 14 11 15 14 20 19 18 22 26 17 13 9 7 14 10 11 13 20 14 18 13 17

21 13 27 14 16 10 17 17 42 27 28 43 40 33 8 5 6 6 4 7 22 9 13 19 18 15

3 3 3 2 2 4 3 2 1 2 1 3 0 2 2 3 1 4 1 3 3 4 5 3 1 5

857 618 469 388 276 342 859 634 189 176 143 214 141 223 206 267 192 274 180 292 298 245 226 312 202 340

15

DETAILED TABLES
Q.55 How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress called "cap and trade" that would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? / Q.56 Do you favor or oppose setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices?

HEARD ABOUT
A lot % 14 20 9 10 20 7 12 21 18 15 27 5 13 17 7 5 21 15 11 23 15 5 26 19 15 16 5 A little
%

POLICY VIEW
(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

Nothing
%

TOTAL SEX Men Women AGE 18-49 50+ DETAILED AGE 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ SEX BY AGE Men 18-49 Men 50+ Women 18-49 Women 50+ RACE White NH Total Non-White Black NH EDUCATION College grad Some college HS or less INCOME $75,000+ $30,000-$74,999 <$30,000 DETAILED INCOME $100,000+ $75,000-$99,999 $50,000-$74,999 $30,000-$49,999 <$30,000

30 32 27 26 35 23 28 36 33 29 37 23 32 31 28 21 39 27 26 31 32 26 38 23 34 29 26

55 47 63 64 44 70 60 43 45 56 34 72 53 52 64 71 40 58 62 45 53 67 36 57 50 55 67

1 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 2 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1

Favor % 50 47 52 51 49 49 51 51 44 47 48 54 49 50 50 38 59 53 43 55 50 48 59 49 50 51 48

Oppose % 39 44 35 40 38 42 39 39 37 44 44 36 33 39 40 52 32 37 44 35 41 39 34 37 40 42 39

(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

(Oct N) 1500 760 740 603 854 197 406 485 369 305 434 298 420 1127 337 149 560 410 508 445 477 375 275 170 221 256 375

11 9 13 9 13 9 9 10 18 9 8 9 17 11 10 10 9 10 13 10 9 13 7 14 11 8 13

16

DETAILED TABLES
Q.55 How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress called "cap and trade" that would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? / Q.56 Do you favor or oppose setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices?

HEARD ABOUT
A lot % 17 20 8 17 28 4 7 11 16 16 17 19 22 12 15 15 14 14 14 13 16 16 12 13 16 15 15 17 17 10 A little
%

POLICY VIEW
(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

Nothing
%

REGISTERED VOTER PARTY ID Republican Democrat Independent PARTY AND IDEOLOGY Conservative Republican Mod/Lib Republican Mod/Cons Democrat Liberal Democrat RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE Total White NH Prot. White NH evang. Prot. White NH mainline Prot. Total Catholic White NH Cath. Unaffiliated CHURCH ATTENDANCE More than once a week Once a week Once or twice a month A few times a year Seldom/Never REGION Northeast Midwest South West DETAILED REGION Northeast Great Lakes Plains South Atlantic South Central Mountain Pacific

31 28 36 28 29 25 38 34 31 29 32 31 27 32 30 29 31 33 27 27 29 30 33 27 27 34 30 29 26 36

51 52 56 54 41 70 55 54 53 54 50 49 50 55 53 56 55 51 59 58 54 54 54 58 56 51 54 53 57 53

1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 1

Favor % 50 36 58 51 29 51 53 70 43 37 51 54 52 62 37 51 45 52 56 56 44 46 56 56 41 48 50 42 42 62

Oppose % 38 50 31 40 60 32 36 22 45 50 38 36 37 33 48 37 42 37 37 33 43 42 35 33 44 42 39 46 45 30

(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

(Oct N) 1250 365 473 543 252 107 297 160 616 327 289 317 251 219 215 412 190 249 390 287 350 555 308 287 225 125 293 262 111 197

12 13 11 9 11 17 11 9 12 13 12 10 11 5 16 11 13 11 7 11 13 11 10 11 15 10 11 11 13 8

17

DETAILED TABLES
Q.55 How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress called "cap and trade" that would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? / Q.56 Do you favor or oppose setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices?

HEARD ABOUT
A lot % MARITAL STATUS Married Not married MARITAL STATUS BY SEX Married men Married women Unmarried men Unmarried women EMPLOYMENT Employed Not employed AMONG REPUBLICANS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad AMONG DEMOCRATS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad AMONG INDEPENDENTS Men Women 18-49 50+ College grad Not college grad 19 9 25 12 14 5 14 14 25 14 16 24 25 18 12 5 7 9 13 6 23 10 10 28 25 14 A little
%

POLICY VIEW
(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

Nothing
%

Favor % 47 53 43 52 53 52 51 47 31 41 38 35 33 37 56 60 60 56 74 53 50 51 49 52 60 47

Oppose % 42 36 47 36 40 34 39 39 60 41 48 54 56 49 35 28 33 28 17 36 42 38 42 37 32 43

(VOL.) DK/Ref
%

(Oct N)

32 27 35 30 29 24 31 28 28 27 22 34 34 25 39 33 34 38 44 33 32 24 25 32 39 24

49 63 40 58 57 69 54 56 46 58 62 40 41 56 49 61 59 52 42 60 44 65 65 38 36 61

1 1 1 0 1 2 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 1

11 11 10 12 7 14 10 14 9 17 14 12 11 14 9 12 6 15 9 11 8 11 8 11 8 10

857 618 469 388 276 342 859 634 189 176 143 214 141 223 206 267 192 274 180 292 298 245 226 312 202 340

18

ABOUT THE SURVEY
Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Abt/SRBI Inc. among a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults, 18 years of age or older, from September 30-October 4, 2009 (1125 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 375 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 141 who had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://people-press.org/methodology/. The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2008 Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2008 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: Group Total sample Republicans Democrats Independents Sample Size 1500 365 473 543 Plus or minus… 3 percentage points 6 percentage points 5 percentage points 5 percentage points

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. For the regional analysis used in this report, states were grouped into smaller subregions or divisions as follows: States in Each Region Northeast CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT

Midwest Great Lakes IL IN MI OH WI Plains IA KS MN MO ND NE SD South Atlantic Central DC DE FL GA MD NC SC VA WV AL AR KY LA MS OK TN TX

West Mountain West AZ CO ID NM MT UT NV WY Pacific West CA OR WA
See http://www.census.gov/geo/www/us_regdiv.pdf for more information.

19

ABOUT THE CENTER
The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press is an independent opinion research group that studies attitudes toward the press, politics and public policy issues. We are sponsored by The Pew Charitable Trusts and are one of seven projects that make up the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. The Center's purpose is to serve as a forum for ideas on the media and public policy through public opinion research. In this role it serves as an important information resource for political leaders, journalists, scholars, and public interest organizations. All of our current survey results are made available free of charge. All of the Center’s research and reports are collaborative products based on the input and analysis of the entire Center staff consisting of: Andrew Kohut, Director Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors Michael Remez, Senior Writer Robert Suls, Shawn Neidorf, Leah Christian and Jocelyn Kiley, Research Associates Alec Tyson, Research Analyst

© Pew Research Center, 2009

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PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS OCTOBER 2009 POLITICAL SURVEY FINAL TOPLINE September 30-October 4, 2009 N=1500 QUESTIONS 1 THROUGH 38 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 39 AND 40 ASK ALL: On a different subject… Q.41 From what you’ve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not? IF “YES” (1 IN Q.41) ASK [N=834]: Q.42 Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? BASED ON TOTAL: Sep 30-Oct 4 2009 57 Yes Mostly because of human activity 36 such as burning fossil fuels, OR Mostly because of natural patterns in the 16 earth’s environment 6 Don’t know/Refused (VOL.) 33 No 2 Mixed/some evidence (VOL.) 8 Don’t know/Refused (VOL.) April 2008 71 47 18 6 21 3 5 Jan 2007 77 47 20 10 16 1 6 Aug 2006 77 47 20 10 17 1 5 July 2006 79 50 23 6 17 1 3 June 2006 70 41 21 8 20 1 9

ASK ALL: Q.43 In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?

Sep 30-Oct 4 2009 35 30 15 17 3

Very serious Somewhat serious Not too serious Not a problem Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)

Apr 28-May 12 2009 47 26 11 13 2

April 2008 44 29 13 11 3

Jan 2007 45 32 12 8 3

July 2006 43 36 11 9 1

June 2006 41 33 13 11 2

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ASK ALL: Q.44 Do you think [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Trend for comparison April1 Nov 2001 1997 The United States should join other countries in setting standards to address global climate change [OR] The United States should set its own standards to address global climate change Neither (VOL.) No need to address/No climate change (VOL.) Don’t know/Refused (VOL.) 58 38 --4 55 41 --4

Sep 30-Oct 4 2009 56 32 3 2 6

QUESTIONS 45 THROUGH 52 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 53 AND 54 On another topic… ASK ALL: Q.55 How much, if anything, have you heard about a policy being considered by the president and Congress called “cap and trade” that would set limits on carbon dioxide emissions? Have you heard…[READ] 14 30 55 1 A lot A little [OR] Nothing at all Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)

IF HEARD A LOT OR A LITTLE (1,2 IN Q.55) [N=777]: From what you’ve read and heard IF HEARD NOTHING/DK (3,9 IN Q.55) [N=723]: Just in general, ASK ALL: Q.56 Do you favor or oppose setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices? 50 39 11 Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused (VOL.)

NO QUESTIONS 57 AND 58 QUESTIONS 59 THROUGH 64 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED

1

In April 2006 and November 1997, question was worded “Do you think the United States should join other countries in setting standards to improve the global environment, or should the United States set its own environmental standards independently?”

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