10102008 WEEK 41 – 2008 Winsgewende somergraanproduksie onder

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10102008 WEEK 41 – 2008 Winsgewende somergraanproduksie onder Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                                                  10/10/2008
                                                                                                              WEEK 41 – 2008


        Winsgewende somergraanproduksie onder huidige omstandighede onmoontlik
        Onderhandelings met Indië oor voorkeurhandel
        Stand van huidige koringoes
        Graan SA ondersteun Kanada en Brasilië se potensiële WHO dispuut
        Saad in droë grond word deur haaragtige insekte gevreet
        Swartmieliekewergetalle vanjaar baie laag


Winsgewende somergraanproduksie onmoontlik
onder huidige omstandighede
Neels Ferreira (voorsitter: Graan SA)



   Onder huidige mark- en produksie-omstandighede blyk die winsgewende produksie van somergrane – ten spyte van onlangse teenstrydige
mediaberigte – onmoontlik te wees.

Gegewe die geweldige stygings in die jaar-op-jaar-koste van insette, kos dit bykans 80% meer as verlede seisoen om somergraanoeste te
plant. Dit is veral die pryse van kunsmis (141% tot 244%), landbou-chemikalieë (gemiddeld 65%), diesel (50%) en landboumasjinerie
(gemiddeld 20%) wat die grootste bydrae tot die kostestygings maak.



Aan die uitsetkant het die pryse van mielies gelewer in Julie 2009, op Dinsdag, 7 Oktober tot onder die vlak van R1 925 (Safex) gedaal. Dit is
selfs laer as die pryse van ongeveer R2 000 per ton (Safex) wat in Julie 2008 behaal is. Terselfdertyd is die pryse van sojabone en
sonneblomsaad vir lewering in Mei 2009 onderskeidelik ongeveer R700 (-17%) en R1 200 (-21%) per ton laer.

Gegewe hierdie prysverhoudings dui Graan SA se berekeninge daarop dat 'n negatiewe marge bo totale koste van ongeveer R110 per ton vir
mielies teen 'n gemiddelde opbrengs van 4 ton per hektaar kan realiseer. Teen 1,5 ton per hektaar sal 'n negatiewe marge van onderskeidelik
R369 per ton en R975 per ton vir sonneblomsaad en sojabone behaal word. Die gevolg hiervan is dat graanprodusente noodgedwonge
aanplantings kan afskaal.



Onderhandelings met Indië oor voorkeurhandel
Wessel Lemmer (senior ekonoom: Marknavorsing, Graan SA)


    Graan SA is tans besig om ondersoek in stel of die uitvoer van graan en oliesade na Indië vir produsente voordele sal inhou sodat dit tot 'n
lys van produkte gevoeg kan word wat dalk voorkeurhandel tussen die twee lande sal geniet.

Volgens 'n aankondiging in die Staatskoerant van 19 September het die Suid-Afrikaanse Doeane-unie en Indië met ‘n onderhandelingsproses
begin ten einde 'n voorkeur- handelsooreenkoms daar te stel. Aangesien beide lande as ontwikkelende lande beskou word, mag hulle volgens
die Wêreldhandelsorganisasie, aan mekaar voorkeur gee in die handel van sekere produkte.

lsquo;n Lys van uitvoerprodukte wat vir Suid-Afrika van belang is, moet saamgestel en aan die taakspan deurgestuur word. Voornemende
uitvoerders het die geleentheid om kommentaar op maatreëls wat handel beperk te lewer.

Volgens beskikbare syfers beloop Suid-Afrika se uitvoere van graan- en oliesaadprodukte ‘n skamele 3,09% van totale RSA-uitvoere na Indië.
Een van die redes hiervoor is waarskynlik dat die Indiese tariewe op invoere van produkte soos graansorghum uit Suid-Afrika tot 50% beloop.
Die invoertariewe wat Indië op produkte soos sojabone, grondbone, kanola en sonneblom hef, beloop 30%. Daarenteen staan die Suid-
Afrikaanse invoertariewe vir ongedopte grondbone uit Indië op 10%, vir soja-oliekoek op 20% en vir sonneblomsaad op 9,4%.

Syfers dui ook daarop dat daar sedert Januarie 2004 geen produkte van hierdie aard na Indië uitgevoer is nie, maar dat daar wel 9 446 ton
ongedopte grondbone, 22 030 ton soja-oliekoek en 165 ton sonneblomsaad vanaf Indië ingevoer is.

Dit is teen hierdie agtergrond dat Graan SA nie alleen deeglik kyk na graanprodukte wat tot produsente se voordeel by 'n beoogde
voorkeurooreenkoms ingesluit kan word nie, maar ook na tariewe en handelspraktyke in beide lande wat sulke uitvoere en invoere raak.


Stand van huidige koringoes
Pietman Botha (senior landbounavorsingskundige, Graan SA)


    Die stand van die huidige koringoes dui daarop dat produsente in die Swartland gemiddelde tot bogemiddelde oeste kan verwag.

Die Rûens se oesverwagting daarenteen vertoon swakker. Die oostelike gedeelte vertoon baie swak, maar die westelike gedeelte vertoon in
sekere dele goed maar met ander dele wat onder gemiddeld tot gemiddeld presteer. In die noordelike produserende gebiede word reën
dringend benodig.

In beide die Oos- en Sentraal-Vrystaat is daar 'n dringende behoefte aan reën. Ongelukkig het die koring in Sentraal-Vrystaat reeds skade
opgedoen.

Besproeiingskoring lyk tans baie goed en daar moet nou op die moontlike voorkoms van swamme gelet word.



Graan SA ondersteun Kanada en Brasilië se potensiële WHO dispuut
Wessel Lemmer (senior ekonoom: Marknavorsing, Graan SA)


    Graan SA is deel van die Suid-Afrikaanse konsultasiegroep wat samesprekings met ‘n prokureursfirma uit Genève, Switserland gevoer het
rakende Kanada en Brasilië se potensiële Wêreld Handel Organisasie (WHO)-dispuut met die VSA.

Dié potensiële dispuut, wat handel oor die plaaslike ondersteuning wat die VSA aan sy mielieprodusente bied, word deur Graan SA ondersteun.
Suid-Afrika het ‘n belang by die potensiële dispuut, aangesien die VSA se ondersteuning aan sy produsente internasionale mededingendheid en
winsgewendheid van mielieproduksie asook voedselsekuriteit in Afrika, benadeel.

 Die samesprekings gedurende September het in die vorm van 'n werkswinkel plaasgevind en het ten doel gehad om uitklaring te kry van die
korrekte dispuutprosedures wat gevolg moet word. Duidelikheid moes ook verkry word oor die vereistes waaraan Suid-Afrika, as derde party, se
voorlegging moet voldoen.

'n Verdere besprekingspunt het gehandel oor die pro-aktiewe identifisering van nadelige internasionale handelspraktyke in die mieliebedryf.
Aandag is ook gegee aan die omvang en bestaan van regeringsondersteuning in die VSA en die RSA ten opsigte van belasting en versekering.

In die proses is ook meer duidelikheid verkry oor die wyse waarvolgens ondersteuningsprogramme in die landboubedryf van Suid-Afrika uit die
staanspoor beplan moet word, ten einde te kan voldoen aan die voorwaardes en reëls van die WHO.




Saad in droë grond word deur haaragtige insekte gevreet
Dr Tom Drinkwater (LNR-IGG)


    Die LNR-Instituut vir Graangewasse ontvang berigte dat produsente wat in droë grond geplant het opmerk dat harige wurmpies die saad in
die grond opvreet. Hierdie wurmpies is larwes van die bontmieliekewer, die geel en swart kewertjies wat vanaf Januarie tot Maart so talryk kan
wees en veral deur geel blomme aangelok word.

Skade sal veral voorkom in swaarder gronde wat na bewerking nog kluiterig is. Die larwes kan tussen die kluite deurbeweeg om by die geplante
saad uit te kom. In ‘n saadbed wat fyn voorberei is, sal larwes die saad moeiliker bereik en gevolglik sal minder saad beskadig word.

Die larwes kan ook chemies beheer word deur saad met ‘n geregistreerde saadbehandelingsmiddel te behandel. Spuit- en korrelformulasies
van sekere insekdoders kan ook saam met die saad in die plantvoor toegedien word. Dit is ook gevind dat hierdie larwes vrek van gifaas wat vir
snywurmbeheer toegedien word.




Swartmieliekewergetalle vanjaar baie laag
Dr Tom Drinkwater (LNR-IGG)


    Die LNR-Instituut vir Graangewasse berig dat die getalle van swartmieliekewers wat in ligvalle gevang is, vir die sestiende
agtereenvolgende jaar vanjaar weer eens besonder laag is. ‘n Ernstige plaaguitbreek gedurende die komende plantseisoen word dus nie
verwag nie.

Die maksimum aantal kewers wat vanjaar in ‘n ligval getel is, was 8 028 teenoor ‘n maksimum van 705 in 2007, 2 357 in 2006, 3 554 in 2005 en
10 613 in 2004. Eers nadat meer as 12 000 kewers in ’n ligval getel word, word verwag dat klein stukkies grond in die omgewing oorgeplant
gaan word.



Hoewel ernstige plaaguitbrake nie verwag word nie, bly dit produsente se eie verantwoordelik om te besluit of hulle swartmieliekewers wil
beheer of nie. Die ligvalle dui ongelukkig nie aan in watter mate kewers jong mielieplante gedurende Desember kan beskadig nie. Kewers wat
gedurende hierdie periode voorkom, is ‘n tweede groep wat dieselfde tyd vlieg as wat hulle skade aanrig.
Navrae oor die bogenoemde twee berigte kan gerig word aan dr. Tom Drinkwater van die LNR-IGG in Potchefstroom, tel: (018) 299-6375.




                                                                                                                          10/10/2008
                                                                                                                      WEEK 41 – 2008


        Profitable summer grain production impossible under present conditions
        Negotiations with India on preferential trade
        Latest situation regarding wheat crops
        Grain SA supports Canada and Brazil in potential WTO dispute
        Seed in dry soil being consumed by hairy insects
        Numbers of black maize beetles very low this year



Profitable summer grain production impossible under present conditions
Neels Ferreira (chairman, Grain SA)


    Under present market and production conditions, profitable production of summer grain crops seems to be an impossible task – despite
recent media reports indicating the contrary.

Given the sharp year-on-year increase in input costs, it costs almost 80% more than last year to plant summer grain crops. Especially the price
of fertiliser (up 141% to 244%), agricultural chemicals (on average 65%), diesel (50%) and agricultural implements and machinery (on average
20%) contributed largely to the cost increases.

On the output side the price of maize for delivery in July 2009 fell to below the level of R1 925 (SAFEX) on Tuesday, 7 October. This is even
lower than prices of approximately R2 000 per ton (SAFEX) realised in July 2008. At the same time the price of soybeans and sunflower seed
for delivery in May 2009, decreased by approximately R700 (-17%) and R1 200 (-21%) per ton respectively.

Given these price ratios, Grain SA's calculations indicate a negative margin above total costs of approximately R110 per ton for maize at an
average expected yield of 4 ton per hectare. At 1,5 ton per hectare, the negative margin will amount to R369 per ton and R975 per ton
respectively for sunflower seed and soybeans. As a result, producers could subsequently be compelled to lower their plantings.




Negotiations with India on preferential trade
Wessel Lemmer (senior economist, Market Research, Grain SA)


   Grain SA is currently investigating the possible producer benefits of exporting grains and oilseeds to India with the intention of adding it to a
list of products which could qualify for preferential trade terms between the two countries.

In terms of an announcement in the Government Gazette of 19 September, the South African Customs Union and India have started a
negotiating process aimed at the establishment of a Preferential Trade Agreement. As both countries are regarded as developing countries, they
are allowed by the World Trade Organisation to provide preferential trade terms to each other for certain products.

 A list of export products of importance to South Africa must be compiled and submitted to a task team. Prospective exporters will also be
granted the opportunity to comment on measures which are seen to limit trade.

 According to available figures, South Africa’s export of grain and oilseed products amount to a mere 3,09% of all RSA exports to India. One of
the reasons for this is that Indian tariffs on import of products such as sorghum from South Africa, amount to 50%. India’s import tariffs on
products such as soybeans, groundnuts, canola and sunflower seeds, amount to 30%. In addition, the South African import tariff on unshelled
groundnuts from India is only 10%, for soy-oilcake only 20% and for sunflower seeds only 9,4%.

 Statistics also indicate that there have been no export of these products to India since January 2004, but a total of 9 446 tons unshelled
groundnuts, 22 030 tons soy-oilcake and 165 tons of sunflower seeds have been imported from India.

It is against this background that Grain SA is conducting a thorough investigation into which grain products could be included in any possible
preferential trade agreement to the advantage of producers, and also into tariffs and trade practices in both countries which could impact on
such imports and exports.



Latest situation regarding wheat crops
Pietman Botha (senior research agriculturalist, Grain SA)


    The present wheat crop conditions indicate that producers in the Swartland area can expect an average to above-average harvest.

The crop expectations in the Rûens area seem to be less favourable. The eastern region shows very poor expectations, with good expectations
in the western region, but in other areas below-average to average results are expected. In the northern production areas, rain is urgently
needed.

In both the Eastern and Central Free State there is also an urgent need for rain. Unfortunately damage has already been done to wheat in the
Central Free State.

Irrigation wheat appears to be very good, but it is now time to watch out for signs of fungus.




Grain SA supports Canada and Brazil in potential WTO dispute
Wessel Lemmer (senior economist: Market Research, Grain SA)


    Grain SA was part of the South African consulting group that recently held discussions with a law firm from Switzerland on the potential
dispute initiated by Canada and Brazil against the USA at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Grain SA supports the potential dispute concerning the support given by the USA to its maize producers. South Africa has an interest in this
potential dispute because the USA's support to its producers is not only detrimental to international competition and profitability of maize
production, but also to food security in Africa.

The discussions during September took the form of a workshop, in order to obtain certainty on correct dispute procedures to be followed. Clarity
also had to be obtained on the requirements which South Africa's submission, as a third party, should meet.

Another point of discussion was the pro-active identification of harmful international trade practices in the maize industry. Attention was also
given to the existence and the extent of government support in the USA and the RSA regarding taxation and insurance.

This process also clarified how the South African agriculture industry support programmes should be planned from the outset in order to comply
with the conditions and rules of the WTO.




Seed in dry soil being consumed by hairy insects
Dr Tom Drinkwater (ARC-GCI)


    The ARC-Grain Crops Institute has received reports of small hairy worms consuming seed in the soil where producers have planted crops in
dry soil. These worms are the larvae of the mottled maize beetle – the small yellow and black beetles which can be quite plentiful from January
to March and seems to be attracted in particular by yellow flowers.

Damage could in particular occur in heavier soils with clods remaining even after cultivation. The larvae are able to reach the seeds by moving
between the clods. In a seedbed with fine soil, it is more difficult for the larvae to reach the seeds and less seed should therefore be damaged.

Larvae can be chemically controlled with a registered seed treatment agent. Spray and pellet formulations of certain pesticides can also be
applied in the planting furrow together with the seed. It has also been found that these larvae die when poison bait used in the control of
cutworm, is applied.




Numbers of black maize beetles very low this year
Dr Tom Drinkwater (ARC-GCI)


    The numbers of black maize beetles caught in light traps this year once again appear quite low – the sixteenth successive year that this
situation has occurred. It is therefore not expected that there will be a serious outbreak of this pest.

The maximum number of beetles caught this year in a light trap, was 8 028 as against a maximum of 705 in 2007, 2 357 in 2006, 3 554 in 2005
en 10 613 in 2004. It is only after more than 12 000 beetles have been caught in a light trap, that replanting of small areas of land becomes an
option.

While a serious outbreak of this pest is not expected, it remains the responsibility of producers to decide whether they wish to control this pest
or not. Unfortunately the light traps give no indication to what extent the beetles can damage young maize plants during December. Beetles
occurring during this period are a second group which can fly at the same time as creating damage.

Enquiries regarding the above two articles, can be addressed to: Dr Tom Drinkwater, ARC-GCI in Potchefstroom, tel: (018) 299-6375.

				
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Description: 10102008 WEEK 41 – 2008 Winsgewende somergraanproduksie onder