Stifel Nicolaus slide by dopdm303

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									          Allen Stevens
Senior Vice President/Investments
          Stifel Nicolaus slide
           stevensa@stifel.com

          Sunday, October 11th, 2009
       Track A: Energy and Investment
 Macroeconomic Overview of Peak Oil: The 5 Ds
        Macroeconomic Overview
         of Peak Oil: The 5 Ds



-   Demand
-   Depletion
-   Dollar (US)
-   Delays
-   Defense (National)
                                             Oil per capita rises rapidly in response to the GDP growth afforded
                                  33             by inexpensive labor, then levels off in a service economy at
                                                                            saturation.
                                  30         “We believe there is too much focus on the oil
                                             demand of G7 countries (11% of global population,
                                  27         41% of oil demand).” – Barry Bannister, CFA, Managing                                                                       U.S.A.
                                             Director, Stifel Nicolaus
 il o s m tio e a ita a ls e r)
O c n u p np r c p (b rre /y a




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                                                                                                                                                                  S. Korea
                                                                                                                                    Japan
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                                                                                                                                                                           Hong
                                  12                                                                                                                                       Kong


                                   9                            Model-T

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                                                                                                                                                                          China
                                   3                                                                                                                                           India
                                                                introduced
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                                       The two lower lines are EIA's High Growth case for China and India.


Source: Barry Bannister, Stifel Nicolaus
Depletion
            ..... EIA Estimate
               1.6% Growth
              96 MM BOPD




35 MBOPD




           ….. 4.0% Depletion
             61 MM BOPD
Dollar
Delays
                             Investments Needed
$16 trillion1

$20 trillion2

Oil and gas expenditures are probably understated 2 to 5 fold.
Real numbers could be $30 trillion3


                                           Project Costs
Alaskan Natural Gas Pipeline, $30 Billion4

Tupi Oil Field Brazil, $100 Billion5

Russia’s Sakhalin-2 LNG Project, $20 Billion6

Oil Sands - $100 Billion are under way or on the drawing board7

1Source: IEA, “30 Key Energy Trends in the IEA & Worldwide.”
2Source: United Nations Environment Programme, www.unep.org
3Source: Matt Simmons, Simmons & Company International, www.simmonsco-intl.com
4Source: Anchorage Daily News (May 31, 2007). “Exxon Frets Over Arctic Gas Pipeline Cost,” by Wesley Loy
5Source: Tupi Oil Field Offshore Technology. www.offshore-technology.com
6Source: Oil and Gas Journal (July 2007). “Investment Risky in Russia as Politics Affects Profits,” by Cindy Hurst.
7Source: “Weak Oil and Debt Markets may Bedevil Oil Sands Plans,” (September 15, 2008) by Jeffery Jones
Defense
Source: EIA

								
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