Train-to-Gain-and-Skills-Pledge-200708-Period-10-MI-Report

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					     Leading learning and skills


Train to Gain
and Skills
Pledge
2007/08
Period 10 MI
Report




Published
July 2008
Introduction
1     This MI Report on the Train to Gain (TTG) Service and the Skills Pledge details
      progress made between August and May 2008. Also available is an Annex that
      contains further detailed information.
2     Following the receipt of final full-year data for 2006/07 we have revised information
      previously reported for 2006/07. Figures previously published regarding brokerage
      and learner activity have therefore been updated.

Summary
3     The highlights of this report are:
      Employers
         Since the inception of TTG in April 2006 the LSC has engaged with 93,000
          employers
         In the period August 2007 and May 2008, employer engagements have risen to
          41,390, a 10 per cent increase since last month.

      Skills Pledge
       So far over 3,700 employers have signed the Skills Pledge, which covers over 4.3
         million employees.

      Starts
         We now have 249,760 confirmed TTG starts between August 2007 and May 2008,
          this exceeds the starts delivered in 16 months of 2006/07
         There has been a 14 per cent increase in overall starts from end of April to May
         In the period April 2006 to May 2008, 488,480 people have engaged in learning
          funded through TTG – the number of Skills for Life starts now exceeds 50,000.

      Achievements
       Since April 2006 212,980 learners have achieved full Level 2 qualifications
        (including Level 3 jumpers).
       So far this year, the number of Level 2 achievements (including Level 3 jumpers) is
        106,940 - 72 per cent of the expected profile year to date.


Performance Issues and Actions in Progress
4     There have been a number of actions taken since the last report was published in
      early June. We expect these to have a significant impact on performance in 2008/09.
      These include:
         Mark Haysom writing to all providers to describe the trajectories – for 2008/09 and
          for the remainder of the CSR period, as well as the new flexibilities
         A TTG focus at the annual National Consortium of Colleges event
         Briefing of the Skills Broker Association and individual skills broker organisations
         Partnership teams commencing discussions with colleges and providers to agree
          TTG allocations


LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008            2 of 10
                          Comprehensive, and ongoing, briefing of LSC Staff, including the launch of a new
                           TTG Bulletin and website to improve the dissemination of information and develop
                           knowledge and understanding
                          New TTG provider web pages were launched week commencing 7th July 2008.


Employer Engagement
Table 1: Employer Engagement
                                                                  2006/07                                  2007/08
                                                       Previous Actual Final (Period   Planning    Planning      Previous Latest actual
                                                         (Period 16)        16)      assumptions assumptions      Actual    (Period 1-10)
                                                                                      (to end of   (Year-to-   (Period 1-9)
                                                                                      academic       Date)
                                                                                         year)
Number of employers engaged                                50,740 1                 51,580 1                           46,880                37,470                 41,390
Proportion of hard to reach                                  73%                      73%           51%                 51%                   75%                    74%
employers referrals
Brokerage engaged                                                                                                                            41,230                 45,420
of which Leadership and
                                                                                                                                             2,990                  3,230
Management
Number of employers signing
                                                                                                                                             3,090                  3,710
the Skills Pledge
Employer satisfaction with
                                                                                                                                                                     80%
brokerage

1
    Excludes 4,000 employers that were formerly engaged in ETP prior to July 2006

5                    Table 1 confirms that in the ten months to May the number of employer engagements
                     was 41,390. However, data for the North West and East Midlands regions has not
                     been received for the month of May. We will work to ensure that this data is included
                     in the report to be published in August. The regions for which data are missing are
                     highlighted in the accompanying data annex.
6                    As demonstrated in Chart 1, performance for the year to date remains below
                     trajectory, but some of this is due to missing data returns. Regions remain confident
                     that the year end target of 52,000 engagements will be met.
Chart 1: Employer Engagements (Actual vs Profile); Cumulative in 2007/08

                     50,000
                     45,000          Profile   Actual
                     40,000
                     35,000
       Engagements




                     30,000
                     25,000
                     20,000
                     15,000
                     10,000
                         5,000
                            0
                                                                             November




                                                                                         December




                                                                                                                                                                         May 2008
                                                                                                                                March 2008
                                                              October 2007




                                                                                                    January 2008
                                               September




                                                                                                                   February




                                                                                                                                                  April 2008
                                 August 2007




                                                                                                                     2008
                                                                               2007




                                                                                           2007
                                                 2007




LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008                                                                                          3 of 10
7     Brokerage referrals have increased by 9 per cent since the end of April and now stand
      at 45,420. Over 3,200 of these have been to Leadership and Management. Chart 2
      contains further information regarding brokerage and shows that almost half of all
      referrals are to LSC-funded providers.
8     In recent months brokers have also provided additional data regarding historic
      engagements that were previously not recorded. This has increased the number of
      engagements in 2006/07 from 50,740 to 51,580. These volumes do not include the
      4,000 employers who were formerly engaged through the Employer Training Pilots.
9     Since the inception of Train to Gain in April 2006 the LSC has engaged with 93,000
      employers. This excludes the 4,000 engagements mentioned above.


Chart 2: Referrals by Destination; Cumulative in 2007/08




                                                                        Provider (LSC)
                                                                        Generalist Broker
                                                                        Provider (Non LSC)
                                                                        Leadership and Management
                                                                        IiP Advisor
                                                                        Sector Skills Broker
                                                                        IAG
                                                                        Business to Business Netw ork
                                                                        Connexions
                                                                        Job Centre Plus
                                                                        Other




Skills Pledge
10    We can report that as at the end of May, 3,700 employers have signed the Skills
      Pledge. This is an increase of 630 pledged employers since last month.

Employer Satisfaction - Brokerage
11    The results published in May 2008 showed that 80 per cent were satisfied with
      brokerage, a fall of 6 percentage points lower than the last survey in 2006. In order to
      rectify this decline more frequent satisfaction surveys and reporting will be re-
      introduced, to enable regions and National Office to monitor employer satisfaction
      more closely in 08/09. Updated employer satisfaction survey results will be available
      in the September report.




LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008                             4 of 10
Learner Participation
Table 2: Learner Starts
                                                                  2006/07                                                                   2007/08
                                                          Previous        Final                                     Planning    Planning   Previous Latest actual      Latest
                                                           Actual      (Period 16)                                assumptions assumptions    Actual    (Period 1-10) Actual inc Cumulative
                                                         (Period 16)                                               (to end of   (Year-to- (Period 1-9)                data lag    since April
                                                                                                                    contract      Date)                             (Period 1-10)    2006
                                                                                                                      year)

Total starts                                                 235,910                        238,720                           433,750                          336,190                          219,010                        249,760                   267,340                  488,480
of which full level 2                                        199,200                        200,070                           344,890                          266,720                          171,790                        194,510                   207,840                  394,580
of which full level 3 jumpers                                 12,930                         12,970                                                                                             16,490                          18,730                    19,960                   31,700
of which level 3 pilots                                        2,160                          2,160                           37,830                           29,610                            7,400                           9,190                     9,980                   11,350
of which Skills for Life                                      21,630                         22,800                           51,030                           39,860                           23,330                          27,320                    29,550                   50,120

12                    Table 2 shows that between August 2007 and May 2008 there have been 249,760
                      confirmed starts. If we include an estimate for data lag1 then this number increases to
                      267,340. We have 213,240 confirmed full Level 2 starts (including Level 3 jumpers),
                      80 per cent of our expected profile at this stage of the year.
13                    There was an increase of 30,760 starts from the end of April to May, 68 per cent of the
                      planned starts for May, and leaves the year to date profile at 76 per cent. Starts on
                      Level 3 pilots and Skills for Life showed the largest percentage increase, 24 per cent
                      and 17 per cent respectively.
Chart 3: Monthly and Cumulative Train to Gain Starts
                      40,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                              600,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          500,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cumulative Starts
                      30,000
     Monthly Starts




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          400,000

                      20,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                              300,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          200,000
                      10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100,000

                          0                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                               November 2007

                                                                                                                                                                 December 2007
                                                         May 2007

                                                                    June 2007




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May 2008
                                                                                July 2007
                               March 2007




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  March 2008
                                                                                                             September 2007

                                                                                                                                October 2007




                                                                                                                                                                                 January 2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                  February 2008
                                            April 2007




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 April 2008
                                                                                               August 2007




                                                                                             Month                                                                     Cumulative


Notes: This chart shows the additional number of starts recorded in each month, and not the month in which they actually
started; starts for August 2007 are estimated as data were not published as at the end of August.

14                    Final data for 2006/07 show an increase in starts in that year. We can now confirm
                      238,720 starts last year.
15                    The number of starts delivered the first ten months of 2007/08 (249,760), exceeds
                      what was delivered in the first 16 months of Train to Gain from April 2006 to July 2007
                      (238,720). However, despite this increase we forecast that we will deliver 326,000
                      starts in the current contracting year, well below our initial planning assumption of
                      433,750.


1
 The data lag assumption is that, in the current period, 36 per cent of data are missing, lowering to 12 per
cent, 5 per cent and 2 per cent moving back over the preceding periods


LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008                                                                                                                                                                                         5 of 10
Chart 4: Train to Gain starts by month (2006/07 and 2007/08 to date cumulative)

            500,000
                                 2006/07 A ctual                     2007/08 A ctual
                                 2007/08 P ro file                   2007/08 Fo recast
            400,000



            300,000



            200,000



            100,000



                  0
                                                          November

                                                                      December




                                                                                                      March




                                                                                                                            June
                                                October
                                    September




                                                                                                                      May




                                                                                                                                   July
                                                                                 January


                                                                                           February




                                                                                                              April
                        August




Note: Includes Actual starts with estimated data lag and are the latest available data for the months

16     In addition we have delivered 9,190 Level 3 pilot starts, which equates to 31 per cent
       of the year to date profile. Although we have not seen the anticipated take-up in Level
       3 Pilots in 07/08, starts increased by 1,790 (up 24 per cent) between April and May.
17     The number of Skills for Life starts since August 2007 is now 27,320, which equates to
       69 per cent of the year-to-date profile. We have now delivered in excess of 50,000
       Skills for Life starts since Train to Gain began.




LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008                                                                     6 of 10
Learner Achievement
Table 3: Learner Achievements
                                                        2006/07                                                   2007/08
                                                Previous        Final                        Planning    Planning       Previous Latest actual Cumulative
                                                 actual      (Period 16)                   assumptions assumptions       Actual    (Period 1-10) (April 06 to
                                               (Period 16)                                  (to end of   (Year-to-    (Period 1-9)                 current
                                                                                             Contract       Date)                                  period)

Full level 2 achievements                       102,650                 102,860                year)                                               203,370
                                                                                             206,800      148,710        76,450      100,510
of which ETP                                    38,890                  38,800                                                                     38,890
Level 3 'jumper' achievements                    3,110                   3,180                                            4,510        6,430         9,610
Level 3 pilot achievements                        160                     160                 18,330       13,460         1,200        1,720         1,880
Skills for Life achievements                    14,640                  14,910                36,270       25,970         8,840       11,810        26,720

18     Final ILR data for 2006/07 report an increase in the number of achievements from that
       previously reported. There has been an increase of 1,410 achievements; this brings
       the total achievements delivered for 2006/07 to 121,980.
19     The number of achievements recorded in period 10 was significantly higher than in
       previous months. Almost 25,000 full Level 2 achievements were recorded, and we
       can now report that in the first 10 months of 2007/08 we have delivered 106,940 full
       Level 2 achievements (including Level 3 jumpers), which is 72 per cent of the year to
       date profile and 52 per cent of our planning assumptions for the year. In addition
       there were 1,720 full Level 3 pilot achievements.
20     We have delivered 11,810 Skills for Life achievements, which is 45 per cent of our
       year-to-date profile and 33 per cent of our planning assumption for the year.
21     To date 212,980 Full Level 2 achievements (including Level 3 jumpers) have been
       delivered through Train to Gain..
Chart 5: Train to Gain achievements by month (2006/07 and 2007/08 to date
cumulative)

           300,000
                                 2006/07 Actual
                                 2007/08 Actual
           250,000               2007/08 Profile
                                 2007/08 Forecast

           200,000


           150,000


           100,000


            50,000


                  0
                                                             November


                                                                          December




                                                                                                           March




                                                                                                                                 June
                                                   October
                                   September




                                                                                                                           May




                                                                                                                                        July
                                                                                     January


                                                                                                February




                                                                                                                   April
                        August




Note: Includes Actual achievements with estimated data lag and are the latest available data for the months




LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008                                                                          7 of 10
Finance
Table 4: Train to Gain Budget and Spend for 2007/08 (August 2007 to May 2008)
                          2007/08 Financial Expenditure May 2008
                         Spend to Date Budget to       Variance
                             (£m)        Date (£m)       (£m)
Delivery                        £267.8        £311.5        -£43.8
         Higher Pilots
of which Level 3Skills                    £7.4               £56.3            -£48.9
for Women                                 £4.0               £10.3             -£6.3
Brokerage                              £31.4             £42.3                -£11.0
Marketing                               £8.6              £5.9                  £2.7
Wage
Compensation                         -£16.6               £7.5                -£24.1
Evaluation                             £0.7               £1.7                 -£1.0
Total                                £291.8             £369.0                -£77.2
22        We continue to under spend on Train to Gain As mentioned previously in this report,
          we did not deliver the volume of starts that we had planned to deliver in May, and as a
          result the under spend remains high. As at the end of May we have an under spend
          of just over £77 million, £44 million of which relates to delivery expenditure.
23        Chart 6 below shows the gap between the cumulative budget and spend to date in the
          2007/08 academic year. Note that no data was available for April, as the end of year
          accounts were being prepared, the cumulative position is reported in May.
Chart 6: Train to Gain spend and budget by month (2007/08 to date cumulative)

          450

          400


          350

          300

          250
     £m




          200


          150

          100

           50

            0
                Aug   Sep     Oct       Nov      Dec   Jan      Feb   March    April      May       June   July

                            Actual Expenditure                                         Budget (£)




LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008                                       8 of 10
Notes
24    This document contains information obtained from four main sources:
         The Broker Contract Management System (BCMS), which contains data uploaded
           monthly from skills brokers
         ILR, which contains data on learner activity
         TTG profiles updated from original modelling estimates used in previous reports
         Broker Extranet, which contains information regarding the Skills Pledge.
25    This report includes estimates for data lag in starts on TTG.
26    The next MI report is due to be published the week commencing 5th August 2008.
27    For presentational purposes, numbers are rounded to the nearest ten. Therefore,
      some totals may differ from the sum of their component parts.




LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008        9 of 10
Regional Data
                                                        Total Starts


                                         2006/07           2007/08        Total
                                       (April 2006 -     (August 07 -
Region                                  July 2007)         May 08)
East Midlands                              21,640           24,410        46,050
East of England                            18,420           20,730        39,150
Greater London                             22,310           35,980        58,290
National Employer Service                  29,950           14,390        44,340
North East                                 17,830           14,490        32,320
North West                                 37,810           35,410        73,220
South East                                 21,190           28,640        49,830
South West                                 17,160           18,390        35,550
West Midlands                              30,170           34,430        64,600
Yorkshire and the Humber                   22,230           22,880        45,110
Total                                     238,720          249,760       488,480

                                                    Total Achievements


                                         2006/07           2007/08        Total
                                       (April 2006 -     (August 07 -
Region                                  July 2007)         May 08)
East Midlands                             6,400             10,540        16,940
East of England                           8,430             10,300        18,730
Greater London                            7,780             12,570        20,350
National Employer Service                 22,020            10,860        32,880
North East                                11,670            9,530         21,200
North West                                20,550            18,340        38,890
South East                                9,810             12,450        22,260
South West                                8,850             9,870         18,720
West Midlands                             13,740            15,440        29,180
Yorkshire and the Humber                  12,740            10,620        23,360
Total                                    121,980           120,520       242,500



Note:
i)      the sum of the regional figures may not agree with the total due to rounding




LSC 2007/08 Train to Gain MI Report - Period 10 - Published July 2008                  10 of 10

				
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