Scenario Planning by DadangSolihin

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									Scenario Planning

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Apa itu Scenario Planning? Perbedaan antara Scenario, Forecast, dan Visions Dimensi Scenario Planning g Perbandingan Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan Scenario Planning. p g Steps in Scenario Planning Tahapan Membuat Skenario Some Traps to Avoid Level of Strategic Thinking Level of Integration Models for Scenario Project Scenarios and Uncertainties Contoh: Daily Newspapers Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010 Contoh: China Scenarios to 2025 Contoh: India Scenarios to 2025 Contoh: Pandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia 2010 Contoh: Indonesia 2025 2

Drs. H. Drs H Dadang Solihin MA Solihin,
Jakarta, January 29, 2007

Apa itu Scenario Planning?
• “An internally consistent view of what the future An might turn out to be” (Michael Porter, 1985). • “A tool [for] ordering one’s perceptions about [ ] g p p alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right” (Peter Schwartz, 1991). Schwartz 1991) • “That part of strategic planning which relates to g g g the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future” (Gill Ringland, 1998). • “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational d i i f t i hi h i ti l decisions may b be played out” (Paul Shoemaker, 1995). 3

Apa itu Scenario Planning?
• Scenario Planning is a model that can be used to explore and learn the future in which a corporate strategy is formed. • It works by describing a small number of k b d ibi ll b f scenarios, by creating stories how the future may unfold, and how this may affect an issue that confronts the corporation. f t th ti • Scenarios are carefully crafted stories about the y g y future embodying a wide variety of ideas and integrating them in a way that is communicable and useful. • Scenarios help us to link uncertainties about the future to the decisions that we must make today (Royal Dutch Shell). 4

Apa itu Scenario Planning?
• • The scenario planning method works by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the future. It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues that are important to the future of your business. g g g The goal is to create and craft a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces. The stories, plus the processes to create them, have a dual aim: i
– to increase the knowledge of the business environment and – to widen both the receiver's and participant's perception of possible future events events.

Apa itu Scenario Planning?
• Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase (Lindgren, 2003)
SCENARIO generation Strategic PLANNING

• •


The method is most widely used as a strategic management tool, but it is also used for enabling group d scuss o about common future. discussion abou a co o uue 5


Perbedaan antara Scenario, F S i Forecast, dan Vi i t d Visions
Possible, plausible futures Uncertainty based Illustrate risks Qualitative or quantitative Needed to know what N d dt k h t we decide Rarely used Strong in medium to long-term perspective g and medium to high uncertainties

Dimensi Scenario Pl S i Planning i
Business development/ Concept development

Focus: new business

Probable futures Based on certain relations Hide risk Quantitative Needed to dare t N d dt d to decide Daily used Strong in short-term perspective and low degree of uncertainty g y

Desired future Value based Hide risk Usually qualitative Energizing E i i Relatively often used Function as triggers for voluntary change
Purpose: action


New thinking/ Paradigm shift

Strategy/ planning

Scenario planning

Scenario learning

Purpose: prerequisite for change

Strategy development/ Organizational g development


Riskconsciousness/ Need for renewal

Focus: old business 7 8

Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan Scenario Pl S i Planning i
Traditional Planning Perspective Variables Relationships R l ti hi Explanation Picture of future Method Attitude to the future
Partial, “Everything else being equal” Quantitative, objective Quantitative objective, known Statistical, Statistical stable str ct res structures The past explains the present Simple and certain

Steps in Scenario Planning
1. Identify people who will contribute a wide range of perspectives. 2. 2 Comprehensive interviews/workshop about how participants see big shifts coming in society, economics, politics, technology, etc. p (cluster) these views into connected patterns. ) p 3. Group ( 4. Group draws a list of priorities (the best ideas). 5. Create rough pictures of the future, based on these p priorities. Stories and rough scenarios. g 6. Add further detail to get impact scenarios. Determine in what way each scenario will affect the corporation. y y g g g 7. Identify early warning signals. Things that are indicative for a particular scenario to unfold. 8. The scenarios are monitored, evaluated and reviewed.

Scenario Planning
Overall, “Nothing else being equal” Qualitative, Qualitative not necessarily quantitative, subjective, known or hidden Dynamic, D namic emerging str ct res structures The future is the raison d’etre of the present Multiple and uncertain

Determinist and quantitative Intention analysis, qualitative models (economic (economic, and stochastic models (cross (crossmathematical) impact and systems analysis) Passive or adaptive (the future will be)

Active and creative (the future is created)
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Tahapan Membuat Skenario
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5 Decide driving forces (istilah lain : drivers / drivers for change) Find key uncertainties : drivers yang paling important & unpredictable. Group linked drivers into a viable framework (kalau bisa, reduce to yang terpenting/strategic drivers) Draft Scenarios (plot menjadi 2-4 scenarios, lalu buat narasinya) Strategize (lihat strategic challenges susun strategic Options & challenges, identify early warning signs untuk each scenario)

Some Traps to Avoid
1. 1 Treating scenarios as forecasts. forecasts 2. Constructing scenarios based on too simplistic a difference. Such as optimistic and pessimistic. 3. 3 Failing to make the scenario global enough in scope scope. 4. Failing to focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on the enterprise. 5. 5 Treating scenarios as an informational or instructional tool rather than for participative learning and/or strategy formation. g q process for engaging g g g 6. Not having an adequate p management teams in the scenario planning process. 7. Failing to put enough imaginative stimulus into the scenario design. 8. Not using an experienced facilitator.

Driving Forces Faktor-faktor yang dapat memicu perubahan (Sosial, g , Demografi, Ekonomi, Tekno, Politik, Lingkungan, Values)

Strategic Drivers Driving Forces yang paling berpengaruh p terhadap masa depan organisasi/ d i i/ negara. Contoh: human capital, trade openness, g governance

Strategic Challenges Berbagai arah ketidakpastian Strategic y g Drivers yang dapat d menghambat/ menciptakan peluang dalam j mewujudkan Visi Vi i

Strategic Options Action Plan yang perlu disusun untuk mewujudkan Visi sekaligus merespon Strategic Challenges



Level of Strategic Thinking
Strategic thinking strong Within paradigm strategies - Strategy as prolongation or modification of the past Paradigm challenging strategies - Scenarios as a source of higher-level strategic thinking and planning Level of integration

Level of Integration g
Future integration Integrates long-term perspectives with midterm strategies and short-term actions Strategy integration Integrates different businesses and products in search for strategic leverage Process integration Integrates operational procedures in search for efficient processes Time horizon

Strategic thinking weak

Mindless action - Tactical and action planning

Future trap - Scenarios as science or intellectual exercise with no connection to strategic action

Futures focus weak

Futures focus strong



Models for Scenario Project
Expert model The planner works Control

Scenarios and Uncertainties
Uncertainty A

Participation model
With a group in the th organization i ti

Organization model
In training/ instructing the i t ti th organization

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

The planner controls the process p y Is presented by the planner The planner completes the assignment

The planner The planner takes part in and stays outside the leads the process process Is owned and presented by the group The planner maintains a relationship with the group Is owned by the y organization The planner passes responsibility to the group

Uncertainty B

The Result

Scenario 3

Scenario 4



Contoh: Daily Newspapers
Strong demand for digital information

Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010
Plot Scenario & Buat Narasinya
Authoritarian A th it i government t

Wait and see
Newspapers conservative

Cyberworld y 2010
Newspapers IT-active
Pro-growth economic orientation Pro-fair distribution economic orientation i t ti

Business as usual

High-tech p production

Weak demand for digital information 17

Democratic government 18

On the Edge
• • Authoritarian government system with a propro growth economic orientation. Separatist movements cause Indonesia to g g disintegrate. Conflicts between the regions and the centre spread to become inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts, labor conflicts, and antiChinese violence. Anarchy i A h increases. Ci il di b di Civil disobedience grows. Education and religion are used to enforce ideological uniformity. Economic growth occurs through big capital and high technology. After Aceh and Papua, Riau secedes from Indonesia. Indonesia

Padding a Leaky Boat
• Combines a democratic government system with a pro-growth economic orientation. • Indonesia become democratic, with a free press and the rule of law. p • Regional autonomy works. Economic problems are overcome through growth, both through foreign investment and using domestic assets.

• • •



Into the Crocodile Pit
• • Combines an authoritarian government with a pro-fair distribution economic orientation. Indonesia becomes more authoritarian due to economic isolation. To keep up popular subsidies, the government over-exploits natural resources. Factories close, as resources grow scarce. Forced agriculture is brought backs, as in colonial times times. Dissidents are kept down by terror. Nationalist soldiers join populist forces to launch a coup d’etat. • •

Slow but Steady
Combines a democratic government with pro profair distribution economic orientation. Successful regional autonomy and decentralization saves Indonesia from destruction Democracy survives the end of the New Order. Foreign investors return, as does international credibility. dibilit Violence recedes. Justice becomes the basis for resolving conflict. g Economic growth is low profile, but fait distribution reaches the regions.

• • • •





Contoh: China Scenarios to 2025

Regional Ties
• Regional Ties describes how China continues g on the path of reform despite an international environment that becomes increasingly p difficult. Chinese leadership and vision facilitate the forging of regional ties that help overcome historical enmities and restore prosperity in Asia. • The scenario is written as a Government White Paper, reflecting on 20 years of progress in China a medium often used by China, the Chinese government to communicate to the public-at-large on a major issue, to lay out its policy or to reflect on the past past.



Unfulfilled Promise
• Unfulfilled Promise describes a China where the d i f th desire for economic development is not i d l ti t supported by the necessary structural reforms. The name reflects the general g sentiment among the Chinese people that the promise made to them in terms of inclusive economic development has been largely unfulfilled. • The story is told as an article in a Western y online journal and reviews China’s development over the period 2006-2025. 25

New Silk Road
• New Silk Road describes the flourishing g economic and cultural rise of China, a feat achieved despite the presence of substantial internal obstacles The scenario reflects obstacles. China’s peaceful geopolitical integration and its sizeable role in the exchange of goods, services, investments and ideas. In this way it i i t t d id I thi recreates the original Silk Road. • The scenario is told using the Online Encyclopaedia of the World and provides a factual account of what China has achieved over a 20 20-year period. i d 26

Contoh: India Scenarios to 2025

Bolly World
• “Bollywood” is the name given to the highly successful Indian film industry famous for its masala movies— industry, movies melodramatic extravaganzas with spectacular song and dance numbers. The title “Bolly World” reflects a future in which India’s leaders are so dazzled by the immediate gains t be made i i t i to b d in international markets th t th f il t ti l k t that they fail to implement much needed domestic reforms. The scenario is told as a conversation overheard on a plane flying from Delhi to Dubai in 2025 A chartered 2025. accountant tells his traveling companion why he thinks India is no longer experiencing international success and is g y problems. As he p puts it, the situation “is j , just facing so many p like Bollywood itself—once you get behind all the glitter and the razzmatazz, you realize—the whole thing is just an illusion.” 28



Pahale I di P h l India

Atakta Bharat
“Atakta Bharat” describes an India “getting stuck without Atakta Bharat getting direction” reflecting the lack of unified action and absence of effective leadership that, in this scenario, create a continuous and cumulative source of problems for India. The scenario is told as the transcript of a speech given at the monthly forum of the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective. The collective—a collaboration between the Hyderabad Farmers, Farmers Seed Developers and Rural Workers Cooperatives—is an example of one of the more positive responses made by some Indians to the multitude of g troubles facing India. The speech itself also draws attention to the importance of self-organization and self-help. Entitled “India’s last 20 years: Why we must help ourselves”, it explores how initial well i t ti ll intentioned attempts at reform in India failed—because d tt t t f i I di f il d b of corruption, inadequate planning and insufficient political will. The speaker raises a number of what he calls “if onlys” to describe how India’s future could have been very India s different. 30

• “Pahale India” means “India First” and this is reflected in the scenario in at least three ways:
1. people from across India put the needs of their community and country first; 2. India emerges as a global economic leader; and 3. India’s dynamic internal developments make it a India s source of inspiration for the rest of the world.



• This story is told by a successful Indian business woman at the 40th I di Economic b i t th India E i Summit in 2025. Her keynote speech explores the reasons for India’s remarkable success. 29

Contoh Pandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia 2010
(Bandung, 2 Januari 2000)
Low Govern L nment Interve ention

Diagram Pohon Skenario Indonesia 2010
Skenario 1: Zamrud Berserakan

Skenario 2 Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai

Skenario 4 Fajar Menyingsing, Menyingsing Kabut Mulai Tersibak Terbuka


Tertutup Rendah Skenario 2: Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai

High Governme Intervention ent

Tinggi Ti i

Skenario 1 Zamrud Berserakan

Skenario 3 Kawah Bergolak


Skenario 3: Kawah Bergolak


Skenario 4: F j Sk i 4 Fajar Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai Tersibak



Zamrud Berserakan

Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai
Adanya ketidaksabaran masyarakat dan pemerintah Indonesia setelah menyaksikan bahwa pengambilan keputusan dan kompromi dalam masyarakat terbuka terlalu banyak memakan waktu dan energi, yang disertai dengan perdebatan sengit dan bi i d b t it d bising. P d h l masalah yang Padahal l h dihadapi Indonesia sangat berat dan memerlukan penanganan yang cepat. Maka diambillah pilihan untuk membatasi keterbukaan masyarakat, sehingga pengambilan keputusan bisa lebih cepat dan kerja bisa lebih efisien. Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah hanya sedikit melakukan ekonomi intervensi, sehingga pertumbuhan berlangsung cepat. Namun karena kebijakan negara memprioritaskan ekonomi, dan untuk itu hak-hak rakyat banyak dikorbankan. Pada akhirnya, masyarakat dunia tidak bisa mentoleransi lagi terhadap Indonesia, dan kampanye pemboikotan terhadap produk Indonesia dilancarkan di seluruh dunia. 34

• Indonesia terpecah, pelanggaran hak asasi manusia sering terjadi. • Peranan masyarakat rendah, setelah terjadinya kudeta yang mengubah keadaan masyarakat terbuka menjadi masyarakat tertutup. j y p • Untuk bertahan hidup, pemerintah melakukan intervensi ekonomi yang sangat tinggi. • Kelaparan terjadi di mana mana Pada saat yang mana-mana. sama Indonesia dikucilkan oleh masyarakat dunia.

• •



Kawah Bergolak
• • • • • Keadaan Indonesia yang tak pernah reda sejak runtuhnya Orde Baru. Masyarakat terbuka merangsang perdebatan tidak ada hentinya di kalangan masyarakat. Waktu dan energi hanya digunakan untuk berdebat dan mengatasi pergolakan politik Padahal tekanan kemiskinan politik. akibat krisis ekonomi perlu mendapat penyelesaian segera. Untuk mengatasi masalah kemiskinan ini sesegera g , p y g mungkin, maka pemerintah melakukan intervensi yang tinggi demi menyelamatkan masyarakat miskin, akibatnya pengurasan sumber daya alam tak terkendali sama sekali. Indonesia bagaikan kawah yang bergolak. Setiap waktu bisa bi meletus d memporakporandakan I d l t dan k d k Indonesia. i

Fajar Menyingsing Kabut Mulai Tersibak Menyingsing,
Masyarakat dan pemerintah konsisten dan sabar untuk membangun masyarakat terbuka, yang mendorong makin kuatnya peranan masyarakat dan makin berkurangnya kekuasaan pemerintah. Ketidaksabaran memang terus menggoda dan korban benarbenar berjatuhan. Berkali-kali masyarakat dan pemerintah tergoda untuk mengurangi keterbukaan masyarakat, tapi niat itu dikalahkan dengan ketakutan makin terancamnya kemanusiaan dan Indonesia. Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah mengurangi intervensinya, kecuali beras beras. Konflik-konflik horisontal yang terjadi di awal pemerintahan Gus Dur membuat orang makin takut terhadap perpecahan. Jika p , p Indonesia pecah, maka nusantara akan kembali seperti sebelum dijajah Belanda. Perang antar negara baru tak akan terelakkan. Ketakutan perang antar negara -pecahan Indonesia- inilah yang menjadikan masyarakat tetap menjaga k j dik k tt t j kesatuan Indonesia. t I d i 36


• •




Contoh: Indonesia 2025
Visi Indonesia 2025 1 Indonesia Menjadi bangsa yang unggul dengan tetap mempertahankan jati diri dan identitas nasional di lingkungan g g g global p pada tahun 2025 Menempatkan Indonesia sebagai negara yang mempunyai standar hidup dan daya saing di atas rata-rata dunia di tahun 2025

Daftar Pustaka
Nusantara Jaya
Bangsa dan negara yang unggul dan menjadi pemain utama di lingkungan global



Kebijakan Nasional Skenario 3

Bangsa dan negara yang tetap miskin dan tertatihtatih di era globalisasi

Skenario 2

Bangsa dan negara yang gagal dan terjungkal di tahun 2025

Skenario 1

'Eisy, Muhammad Ridlo (2000) Pertemuan Puncak - Dialog Regional Eisy, Jawa Barat Menyusun Skenario Indonesia Masa Depan Pandangan dari Jawa Barat : Skenario Indonesia 2010, LINGREN, LINGREN Mats and Hans Bandhold, 2003 “Scenario Planning the Bandhold 2003, Scenario Planning, Link between Future and Strategy”, New York: Palgrave MacMillan ( ) j Hermana, Budi (2007) “Peran BI Menuju Indonesia 2025: Prahara, Sengsara, atau Nusantara Jaya?”, Universitas Gunadarma RINGLAND, Gill, 2006.Scenario Planning, West Sussex: John Willey & Sons Ltd What Planning?” “What is Scenario Planning? , http://www 12manage com/ methods_scenario_planning.html World Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series, China and the World: Scenarios to 2025, World Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series, India and the World: Scenarios to 2025,

2025 37 38

Dadang Solihin’s Profile
Dadang holds a MA degree ( g g (Economics), University of ) y Colorado, USA. His previous post is Head, Center for Research Data and Information at DPD Secretariat General as well as Deputy Director for Information of Spatial Planning and Land Use Management at Indonesian National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas).

Terima Kasih

Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of AsiaAsia Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, he also active as Associate Professor at University of Darma Persada, Jakarta, Indonesia. He got various training around the globe included Advanced International globe, Training Programme of Information Technology Management, at Karlstad City, Sweden (2005); the Training Seminar on Land Use and Management, Taiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers Kuala Managers, Lumpur, Malaysia (2003); Applied Policy Development Training, Vancouver, Canada (2002); Local Government Administration Training Course, os a, Japa (2001); and eg o a e e op e and a g a g Hiroshima, Japan ( 00 ); a d Regional Development a d Planning Training Course, Sapporo, Japan (1999). He published more than five books regarding local autonomous. You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at or by his mobile at +62812 932 2202
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