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SREF-Charter-Fall03 Powered By Docstoc
					                              PROJECT CHARTER
               Implementation of SREF Diversity and Product Upgrade

Project Sponsor: Kevin Cooley, NCEP Chief Information Officer
Project Objective: The objective of this project is to improve the accuracy and
products for the Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system for the North
American Domain at 48 km horizontal resolution. It is the intent of this project to
increase the ensemble diversity information and provide additional forecast
products for North America.
Project Background: This project directly maps to NCEP=s strategic goal of
delivering better products and services. NCEP=s Strategic Goal 1.3 is to improve
the user=s decision-making capabilities by including levels of certainty in NCEP
products and services. This upgrade to the operational SREF system capability will
be part of a larger plan to gradually increase the forecast accuracy and provide
improved confidence information over the next several years. This project, which
will increase ensemble diversity information and add forecast products, is planned
to expand in the following years to include more and higher resolution ensemble
members, improved member physics, model core and initialization diversity, and
additional ensemble post-processed products.
Project Approach: In order to accomplish the project objective, the following
approach will be taken. Modifications to the SREF system will be made and
evaluated as an end-to-end system. The scientific results of these tests will be
evaluated objectively and subjectively through retrospective and near real-time
parallel runs. The final modifications will then be technically tested and evaluated
by NCEP Central Operations (NCO). The technical and scientific results will be
evaluated and approved prior to implementation by the NCEP Chief Information
Officer (NCEP CIO), EMC Director and NCEP Director.
The following modifications to the SREF system will be attempted in order to
achieve the project objective:
Model Changes
$       Increase horizontal resolution of all 15 ensemble members (11 Eta and 4
        RSM). A horizontal resolution increase from 48 km to between 32-38 km
        will be attempted.
$       Increase vertical resolution to 60 levels in the Eta members.
$       Upgrade Eta members to include the recent changes to the operational Eta.
$       Upgrade RSM model system with improved physics and computational
$       Enhance the SREF system physics diversity by running several members
        with different cloud physics and convective parameterization schemes.
        Eight different physics and/or model physics perturbation are being
considered. Seven of the model configurations will have one initialization breeding
pair. 15 members will be run twice per day at 09 and 21 UTC.:

 Model              Convection                      Microphysics       Breeding
  Eta      Betts-Miller-Janic (BMJ)          Operational Ferrier    1 positive (p1)

                                                                                 1 negative (n1)
   Eta      BMJ-SAT (Saturated vapor             Experimental Ferrier*           p1, n1
            pressure profile)
   Eta      Kain-Fritsch (KF)                    Operational Ferrier             p1, n1
   Eta      KF w/ full cloud                     Experimental Ferrier*           p1, n1
   Eta      Relaxed Arakawa-Shubert              Operational Ferrier             p1, n1
   Eta      Shallow Convection only              Experimental Ferrier*           No
  RSM       Simple Arakawa Shubert               Zhou GFS                        p1,n1
  RSM       Relaxed Arakawa Shubert              Zhou GFS                        p1, n1
* Experimental Ferrier Microphysics are related to changes in parameters controlling the liquid
water glaciation, ice nucleation, cloud formation, vapor deposition and cloud water collection by

Product Changes
$       Add improved and new ensemble mean and probabilistic products to the
        SREF GRIB output files.
New codes will be transferred to NCO on October 20, 2003. The improvements to
the SREF system will be evaluated for two periods. The modified SREF system will
be retrospectively run for the month of July 2003 and run in a near real-time
parallel for the months of October and November 2003. These two periods will be
objectively evaluated by EMC and subjectively evaluated by the NCEP Service
Centers and NWS Regions desiring to participate in the evaluation. The data will
be made available by EMC. A scientific review of these results will be conducted in
November 2003. NCEP Service Centers and NWS Regions will be solicited for an
intent to participate in the evaluation in October 2003. Products are displayed
twice/day at the NCEP-SREF web site at :
Verification Statistics: Preliminary verification statistics of the physics based
ensemble syste can be found at :_______________________. This system provides
more model diversity and spread than the current operational system or from
downscaling the operational system to 32 km.
Appointment of Project Manager: To achieve the objectives of this project, I
appoint David Michaud as the project manager for this project. In this capacity,
David has the authority to expend NCO human resources to accomplish objectives
of the project. I expect that the NCO Branch Chief will negotiate for the availability
of both NCO and NWS resources in good faith. I expect that individuals assigned to
this project will dedicate the time and effort to complete tasking as assigned by
David and their Branch Chief.

Project Expected Duration: The expected duration of the project is four months to
end in December 2003.
Project Organizational Scope: The organizational scope of the project includes all
of NCEP Central Operations, the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC),
all NCEP Service Centers and NWS OCWWS. The NCEP EMC will be responsible
for developing, running parallel and retrospective runs and validating the quality of
the SREF system. The NCEP NCO will be responsible for technical testing,
technical evaluation, and implementation of the SREF system changes on the IBM
CCS. The NCEP Service Centers will be responsible for the subjective evaluation of
the SREF system changes. The NWS OCWWS will be the single point of contact for
coordinating subjective evaluations in the NWS Regions.
Reporting Frequency: Bi-weekly
Project NTOP Number: NCO-11 and NCO-12
Kevin C. Cooley                                             Date
NCEP Chief Information Officer