Accelerating US Thin Film Production by g5211134

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									      Accelerating US Thin Film Production

                2004-2005 Predictions*                                                 2006 Prediction
            140                                                               180
            120                                                               160
                                                                              140
                                                                                            Predicted
            100
                                                                              120
                             Predicted
              80                                                              100
              60                                                               80      Confirmed
                                                                               60
              40
                                                                               40
              20                                                               20
                0                                                               0
                    2002       2004        2006         2008                        2002   2004    2006   2008

                                 US TF MW/yr                                                US TF MW/yr


*Part of Partnership presentation at DOE March 2004; and NCPV Advisory Board, March 2005
                                CdTe 1000 kWp Nontracking Ground-Mounted LCOE $0.24/kWh US Average 2006 $0.061/kWh 2020


                            $0.060

                                                                Module Related
                            $0.050



                                                                                                                                    Inverter
c/kWh Impact on Reduction




                            $0.040
                                                                                                                                    Related
                            $0.030




                            $0.020




                            $0.010




                            $0.000
                                     module $/m2   module eff     Integrator   Voltage per     Inverter cost     Inverter   module width    Module      Installed        Inverter
                                                                materials and string (volts)       $/Wp        efficiency %     (m)      degradation% Fence ($/m) or lifetime years
                                                                handling fee $                                                              rate/yr       zero
                                                                                              c/kWh Impact on Reduction




                                                                            $0.000
                                                                                     $0.005
                                                                                                 $0.010
                                                                                                          $0.015
                                                                                                                   $0.020
                                                                                                                            $0.025
                                                                                                                                       $0.030
                                                                                                                                                      $0.035
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                                                              $/
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                                                         ns
                                                               $/
                                                                 m
                                                                        2
                               In
                                                                                                                                                               CdTe 150 kWp Flat Commercial Array LCOE $0.18/kWh US Average 2006 $0.052/kWh 2020




                                 ve
                                   rt
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                                              e    ffi
                                                      ci
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                                                                     %
                                                                                 c/kWh Impact on Reduction



                                             m




                                                                        $0.000
                                                                                   $0.010
                                                                                            $0.020
                                                                                                     $0.030
                                                                                                              $0.040
                                                                                                                       $0.050
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2020




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                 e                                                %
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                  su                                       ($
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                         t/       tra
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                                                                                                                          Module area cost TIO (instead of η) magnified in system without racks




                                            er
                                               c     os
                                                       t$
                    In                                      /m
                      ve                                          2
                         r       te
                                    r   re
                                             bu
                                                                                                                                                                                                           a-Si flex 150 kWp Flat Commercial Laminated Array LCOE $0.2/kWh US Average 2006 $0.059/kWh




                                               ild
                                                       pe
                                                         rc
                                                              en
                                                                t
                                      a-Si flex 4 kWp Residential Laminate LCOE $0.33/kWh US Average 2006 $0.096/kWh 2020


                            $0.060




                            $0.050
                                                                                          Volume Related
c/kWh Impact on Reduction




                            $0.040




                            $0.030




                            $0.020




                            $0.010




                            $0.000
                                     module $/m2   module eff   Inverter cost   Integrator      Inverter     Inverter      Project        Design     Inverter      Module
                                                                    $/Wp      materials and lifetime years    rebuild   management,                efficiency % degradation%
                                                                              handling fee $                 percent     purchasing,                               rate/yr
                                                                                                                        sales, travel $
                               Equivalent Allowable Module Price for 1 MWp Nontracking @ $5/Wp System


             3.5


             3.3

                                                                              Like x-Si
             3.1
                                Like CdTe
             2.9
                                On Glass
             2.7                                               Like CIS/glass
$/Wp Price




             2.5

                                                                       $0.8/Wp Difference in Allowable
             2.3
                                                                         Module Price @ 7% to 17%
             2.1

                                                                   Price differences get smaller as
             1.9       Like a-Si
                                                                          efficiencies go up
                       On Glass
             1.7


             1.5
                   5   6   7       8      9      10      11      12      13       14   15    16         17   18   19   20
                                                              Module Efficiency
                             Equivalent Allowable Module Price
                          (for $6/Wp 150 kWp flat commercial roof)
                    4.5
                                    Rack-less laminates are a BIPV & SDA success story
                     4            Like a-Si                                     Note flatter curve
Module Price $/Wp




                                  Flexible
                                                             Like CIS
                    3.5                 Like CdTe
                                        On Glass                      Like x-Si
                     3                                       Rack-mounted
                                                             Laminated
                    2.5
                              Like a-Si
                              On Glass
                     2
                          5   6     7   8     9   10   11   12   13   14   15    16   17   18   19   20

      *Absolute Δ “flex to rack” not robust       Module Efficiency
                          Equivalent Allowable Module Price for Rack mounted 4 kWp
                                         Residential Systems $8.1/Wp

              4.25
                         Like a-Si
              3.75
                         Flexible               7% flexible = 15% on glass!*

                                          Like CdTe
                                          On Glass                             Like x-Si
Module $/Wp




              3.25
                                                              Like CIS/glass
                                                                       Rack mounted
              2.75                                                     Laminated




              2.25                                  Value of efficiency or rack-less mount
                              Like a-Si                           is magnified
                              On Glass
              1.75
                     5    6     7     8         9   10   11    12    13    14     15   16   17   18   19   20

        *Absolute Δ “flex to rack” not robust              Module Efficiency
                                Historical and Projected x-Si & Thin Film Modules Made
                                  in the US (through 2004) by US-Owned Companies
                          200

                          180

                          160
Annual US Sales (MW/yr)




                          140

                          120                 Thin Films          x-Si

                          100

                           80

                           60
                                          By this measure, Thin Films
                                            Passed x-Si in US 2005
                           40

                           20

                            0
                                1999   2000    2001        2002     2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008

								
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