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2010 Economic Forecast
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Economic Forecast, unemployment rate, Chief Economist, Industry Outlook, Traverse City Area Chamber, Buffalo Niagara, Economic Research, Area Chamber of Commerce, Patrick Anderson, County Economic Development, Los Angeles County, the rest, county region, Economic Development Corporation, Southern California, Economic Forecast, unemployment rate, Chief Economist, Industry Outlook, Traverse City Area Chamber, Buffalo Niagara, Economic Research, Area Chamber of Commerce, Patrick Anderson, the rest,
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- 304
- posted:
- 11/30/2009
- language:
- English
- pages:
- 8
Document Sample
Valley economic
Forecast 2010
Key eConomiC
indiCator QueStionS Summary
Between the months of July and October 2009 Baird Williams & Greer
looKing ahead to 2010, do you feel the contacted chambers of commerce throughout the Valley to encourage
u.S. unemployment rate will: their members to respond to a survey regarding their views on economic
36.4% Decrease and business trends in 2010. Over the course of three months, over 150
48.1 Increase businesses voiced their opinions on everything from unemployment to
15.6% unsure the banking industry to the real estate market, touching on issues that
are currently affecting them professionally. From the results collected,
do you generally agree with the Baird Williams & Greer developed a report that forecasts the business
reSponSe of u.S. houSe of
the and economic climate in 2010, based off the attitudes of small and
repreSentativeS Senate toward
and medium-sized businesses across the Valley.
the Current eConomiC ChallengeS?
31.9% Yes
68.1% No
about the Sample ColleCted
Local businesses were asked 35 questions to gage their attitude toward
the economy in 2010 and voice their opinions on trends that we will see
do you antiCipate the arizona real
in the New Year. In an effort to report the most accurate information,
eState marKet will See inCreaSed SaleS
Baird Williams & Greer polled a random sample of local businesses
in 2010?
by inviting Valley chambers to ask their members to participate in the
61.1% Yes
survey. By outreaching to local chambers, Baird Williams & Greer
38.9% No
knew that they would get a pool of businesses that are headquartered
in Arizona. Therefore, the survey reflects more accurately the trends
do you antiCipate that the valueS of
happening in Arizona’s business community.
arizona’S real eState will inCreaSe in
2010?
35.4% Yes partiCipating ChamberS
41.0% No • Apache Junction Chamber of Commerce
24.3% Uncertain • Arizona Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
• Buckeye Valley Chamber of Commerce
do you expeCt a Change in overall • Chandler Chamber of Commerce
Staff wageS in 2010? • Fountain Hills Chamber of Commerce
23.0 %Yes—we expect an increase • Mesa Chamber of Commerce
in earnings • Scottsdale Chamber of Commerce
19.4% Yes—we expect a decrease • Southwest Valley Chamber of Commerce
in earnings • Tempe Chamber of Commerce
57.6% No change is expected
Size of buSineSS partiCipating
in 2010, where do you plan to inCreaSe Based on number of employees not revenue
Spending? • Less than 10 employees: 52.8%
12.3% New product or service • 10 – 100 employees: 29.9%
17.7% IT • 101-499 employees: 10.2%
9.8% Facilities Expansion • 500-999 employees: 1.5%
30.0% Marketing & Communications • 1,000 employees or more: 5.5%
46.2% I don’t plan on increase These results conclude that the bulk of trends will be focused on small to
spending medium sized businesses with no more than 100 employees, the backbone of
Arizona’s economy.
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125
Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400
Fax: 602-271-9308
www.bwglaw.net
Valley economic Forecast 2010
ConCluSion
bwg eConomiC foreCaSt 2010 prediCtionS
The 2010 Baird Williams & Greer Economic Forecast survey demonstrated major trends that will
impact their business, enabling them to plan ahead as we gear up for 2010. From the over 150 small-to-
medium sized businesses surveyed across the Valley, Baird Williams & Greer 2010 Economic Forecast
predicted the following six major trends will occur in Arizona during the New Year:
major trendS foreCaSted for 2010
• Small and Medium-sized Business expect the economy to improve in 2010.
• Small and Medium-sized Business anticipate the unemployment rate to increase in Arizona
and nationally.
• The bulk of Small and Medium-sized Business in Arizona do not anticipate hiring more staff
in 2010.
• Small and Medium-sized Business predict that the banking industry will begin to show signs
of stability in 2010.
• Small and Medium-sized Business forecast that the real estate market will begin to make a comeback.
• Small and Medium-sized Business see the biggest problem affecting their business is cash flow.
• Small and Medium-sized Business forecast an increase in consumer spending.
• Small and Medium-sized Business predict a small growth rate of thier business, indicating
stability in 2010.
Below is a compiled list of key questions that indicated economic trends in 2010 for Arizona’s small-to-medium
sized business community. Each question is outlined with a summary, describing the economic trends forecasted
by the Baird Williams & Greer 2010 Economic Forecast.
Key ChartS demonStrating important eConomiC and buSineSS trendS
Exactly 156 of the participating businesses responded to the question regarding how they felt about
Q.1 the prospects for the US Economy. The chart below indicates that businesses are overwhelmingly
optimistic about the US economy, but other questions demonstrated that this optimism is not spread
to the world economy where only 35.7% of respondents were hopeful.
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125 Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400 Fax: 602-271-9308 www.bwglaw.net
Valley economic Forecast 2010
As reports now show there is a turnaround happening with the economy, with experts believing that
Q.4 we will now see the economic situation will improve in 2010 as the worst is over. While the economy
Q.20 is showing positive signs for businesses, companies have shifted their focus on the effects it has on
consumers. The response to question four indicates that more than half of the companies surveyed
(52.6%) believe that the unemployment rate will increase in Arizona and nationally. In addition, as
question 20 (below) demonstrates 44.7% of the business surveyed do not plan on hiring new employees
in 2010, even though they anticipate seeing an increase in revenue though just slightly between 1%-
10%. (see question 18 & 29)
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125 Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400 Fax: 602-271-9308 www.bwglaw.net
Valley economic Forecast 2010
During the time of the survey (taken from July – October 2009), businesses in Arizona predicted
overwhelmingly (64.4%) that the banking industry will show signs of stability during 2010. This is a
Q.7 remarkable sentiment given that during the months of August and September, four local community
banks closed their doors and negative reports flooded news stands about the banking industry toward
the end of October. This could reflect a sentiment among businesses in Arizona that believe the strong
banks are being singled out, as the weaker banking institutions are forced to close their doors.
A major trend throughout the nation during the late summer/early fall of 2009 was the difficulty for
businesses to have access to capital and/or loans to keep their businesses afloat. While a clear majority of
Q.9 business owners that responded to the survey did not apply for a business loan, 73.1% of those who did
apply found it difficult to get a business loan or line of credit because of the state of the banking industry.
what are your planS for expanSion
in 2010?
29.1% Organic Growth
5.5% Mergers or Acquisitions
54.3% No expansion plan in 2010
11.8% Other
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125 Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400 Fax: 602-271-9308 www.bwglaw.net
Valley economic Forecast 2010
Mid-term of President Obama’s first year in office, his poll numbers dropped and people felt less
confident in his Administration and Congress. Local businesses surveyed demonstrate the same idea,
Q.10 as a little more than half of respondents did not agree with President Obama’s approach toward the
US economy.
Consumers’ attitudes toward the economy are generally believed to dictate their spending habits,
which greatly affects local businesses. For question 12 of the Baird Williams & Greer Economic Forecast
Q.12 for 2010, businesses believed that consumers were not confident that the US economy would improve.
Though as question 13 demonstrated (asked businesses whether they believed there would be an
increase in consumer spending), it does not have a direct correlation as a majority believed consumers
would increase their spending in 2010.
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125 Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400 Fax: 602-271-9308 www.bwglaw.net
Valley economic Forecast 2010
At the end of October 2009, key economic indicators proved that the economy’s downward spiral had come to
a halt. As experts now believe the economy is on the rise, the Barid Williams & Greer survey demonstrated a
Q.18 similar read out as: 41.0% of Valley businesses believe that their company’s revenue will increase moderately;
7.6% believed that it will increase substantially; and 33.3% believe it will neither decrease or increase. This
result demonstrates that the majority of businesses will see stability in 2010 or an increase in revenue.
With companies anticipating a slight increase in revenue, 56.9% of Valley businesses estimate seeing a
revenue growth rate with 43.1% of businesses forecasting an increase of 1% - 10% in 2010.
Q.29
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125 Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400 Fax: 602-271-9308 www.bwglaw.net
Valley economic Forecast 2010
Companies overwhelming felt that the biggest impact on their daily operating costs was cash flow problems
with 49.2% of businesses citing it as their biggest problems over the cost of IT, salary or other factors.
Q.26
do you plan on widening your ServiCeS to inCreaSe in 2010, do you plan to out-SourCe any operationS
2010?
your revenue in that are Currently in-houSe?
30.7% Yes—First Quarter 3.2% Yes—in order to broaden our services
12.6% Yes—After first quarter 11.9% Yes—to be more cost effective
40.2% No 83.3% No
10.2% Not applicable
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125 Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400 Fax: 602-271-9308 www.bwglaw.net
Valley economic Forecast 2010
While cash flow is a major problem affecting their bottom line on a regular basis, Valley companies
forecast the decrease in consumer spending as the number one issue that will affect their business in
Q.35 2010. Over 46% of respondents cited consumer spending, while other key issues include a combination
of competition and inflation rates as a major problem.
6225 North 24th Street, Suite 125 Phoenix, AZ 85016
Telephone: 602-256-9400 Fax: 602-271-9308 www.bwglaw.net
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