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									Knut Arild Larsen Norwegian SYSDEM Correspondent January 15, 2004

Quarterly labour market update Norway

1 Macro economic background In the Autumn of 2003, the Norwegian mainland economy – that is, excluding the petroleum and shipping industries – showed signs of a recovery, following a period of slow and, from the first quarter of 2002 until the first quarter of 2003, negative growth in GDP. In the year between the third quarter of 2002 and the third quarter of 2003, GDP for mainland Norway increased slightly.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Mainland Norway. Per cent growth. Annual rates
12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0
Last quarter

12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0
y-y

2.5 0.0 -2.5 -5.0
nonabnp3v e

2.5 0.0 -2.5 -5.0

99

00

01

02

03

Mainland GDP = GDP excluding petroleum and shipping, constant prices. y-y = growth rate from same quarter of the previous year on an annual basis. Source: National account, Statistics Norway

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ECON Analysis – internal memo

2 Employment From Summer 2002, employment started to fall. It began to increase again in the second half of 2003. The number of employed people was almost constant between the second and third quarters of 2003, according to the seasonally adjusted figures from the LFS. Between the three-month periods May-July and August-October 2003, the number of employed people increased ½ per cent. .

EMPLOYMENT
Seasonally adj., moving average. 1000 persons
2295 2290 2285 2280 2275 2270 2265 2260 2255 2250 2245
nolmsy sse

2295 2290 2285 2280 2275 2270 2265 2260 2255 2250 99 00 01 02 03 2245

Source: Labour Force Survey (LFS), Statistics Norway. People 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted monthly figures, 3 months moving average

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ECON Analysis – internal memo

Falling employment in the period 2002 to 2003 has particularly affected several sectors: transport and communication and manufacturing. Other services account for almost 40 per cent of total employment. Therefore, the small percentage reduction in employment in this sector is of great importance. In the third quarter, the transport and communication sector and the service sector saw increasing employment, while manufacturing industry continued to shed jobs.

Employment, selected industries
Quarters. 2002Q1=100
105

Manufacturing

100

Construction

95

Domestic trade, hotels, restaurants Transport, communication

90

85

Financial intermedation, real estate, business activities Other services

80 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3

Source: Labour Force Survey (LFS), Statistics Norway. People 16-74 years

3 Unemployment Increasing employment has not yet contributed to a significant reduction in unemployment, because of the sensitivity of the labour force to the business cycle. Increases in employment lead to an expanding labour force. The expansion in the labour force is not as great as the increase in employment, but it is large enough to prevent the unemployment rate from falling markedly. According to seasonally adjusted figures from the Labour Force Survey, the number of unemployed people (as a share of the labour force) has remained constant in percentage terms between June and September at 4.6 per cent. It fell to 4.5 per cent in October. Figures from the Employment Offices indicate stable unemployment in the fourth quarter.

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ECON Analysis – internal memo

NORWAY - UNEMPLOYMENT
Seasonally adjusted. Per cent of labour force
4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75
nolmledp2E

4.75 4.50 4.25
LFS

4.00 3.75 3.50

Aetat

3.25 3.00

99

00

01

02

03

2.75

Source: Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Labour Market Administration (Aetat). LFS: People 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted monthly figures, 3 months moving average. Aetat: Registered unemployed people at the Employment Offices by the end of each month, including people on government measures, as a percentage of the labour force (LFS). Seasonally adjusted but not moving average.

The unemployment rate for men increased between the first and the third quarters of 2003, while that for women seem stabilized. The reason may be the continued job losses in manufacturing industries and a growth in jobs in the service sector. Young people (16-24 years) have an unemployment rate almost three times higher than the average for all groups. Employment opportunities improved slightly in the third quarter. From December 2002 to December 2003, an increasing share of women who are registered as unemployed have come from the following areas – health and medical, administration, clerical, and other services. Comparing December 2003 to December 2002, an increasing share of unemployed men comes from manufacturing and other services. The most common occupational background is manufacturing work. The share of unemployed men with this background has increased since September 2003. The incidence of long-term employment, measured as a percentage of registered unemployed people who have been unemployed for half a year or more, seems to have fallen towards the end of 2003.

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ECON Analysis – internal memo

UNEMPLOYMENT - SELECTED GROUPS
Quarters. Per cent of labour force
14,0

12,0

10,0

Total
8,0

Male Female Youth (16-24)

6,0

4,0

2,0

0,0
19 99 Q 1 19 99 Q 2 19 99 Q 3 19 99 Q 4 20 00 Q 1 20 00 Q 2 20 00 Q 3 20 00 Q 4 20 01 Q 1 20 01 Q 2 20 01 Q 3 20 01 Q 4 20 02 Q 1 20 02 Q 2 20 02 Q 3 20 02 Q 4 20 03 Q 1 20 03 Q 2 20 03 Q 3

Source: Labour Force Survey (LFS)

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ECON Analysis – internal memo

OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF UNEMPLOYED WOMEN
Per cent 0,00 Technical, physical science Health and medical work Teaching work Administrative and humanistic work Clerical work Sales work Agriculture, forestry, fishing and related work Transport work Building and construction work Manufacturing work Other service work Not specified/no occupation December 2002 September 2003 December 2003 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00

Source: Labour Market Administration (Aetat)

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ECON Analysis – internal memo

OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF UNEMPLOYED MEN
Per cent 0,00 Technical, physical science Health and medical work Teaching work Administrative and humanistic work Clerical work Sales work Agriculture, forestry, fishing and related work Transport work Building and construction work Manufacturing work Other service work Not specified/no occupation 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00

December 2002 September 2003 December 2003

Source: Labour Market Administration (Aetat)

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ECON Analysis – internal memo

LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT 2002-03
Per cent of registered unemployed
35,0

30,0

25,0

20,0

15,0

10,0

1/2 year or more 1 year or more Quarterly average

5,0

0,0 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 03 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov

Source: Labour Market Administration (Aetat)

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