Weekly Agri Report by Epic Research 01 Sep 2014.pdf

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					WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT
01 SEPTEMBER 2014




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                                                             WEEKLY WRAP UP
                                                                                                                         CLOS   %            OI (in
 MONTH      OPEN      HIGH      LOW       CLOS    % CHG      OI (in    VOL      MONTH     OPEN      HIGH       LOW                                      VOL
                                                                                                                          E   CHANGE         lots)



                                 DHANIYA                                                                     CASTORSEED


   SEP       11857    12038     11688     11912    +0.35     22750    77600      SEP      4197      4220       4113      4199      +0.67    117660    513180


            SUPPORT   SUPP. 1   SUPP. 2                                                            SUPP. 1    SUPP. 2
                                                                                         SUPPORT
                       11721     11529            Dhaniya short term trend is                        4135      4070
  INTRA-                                                                        INTRA-                                           Castorseed Short term trend
                                          PIVOT     down, and furthermore                                                PIVOT
 DAY LEV-                                                                        DAY                                             is down. Price expected to
    ELS                                   11879   down is expected in coming    LEVELS                                    4177
                                                                                                                                  go down in coming days.
            RESIS-    RES. 1    RES. 2                      days.                        RESIS-     RES. 1    RES. 2
            TANCE      12071     12229                                                   TANCE       4242      4284




                                TURMERIC                                                                      GUARGUM



   SEP       6640      6664      6390     6616      +1.67    13195    41190      OCT      17350    17400     15970      16280     +0.31    10483      63734



                      SUPP. 1   SUPP. 2                                                            SUPP. 1   SUPP. 2
            SUPPORT                                                                      SUPPORT
                       6449      6283                                                               15700     15120
                                                                                                                                 Guargum Short term trend
 INTRA-                                            Turmeric price is in down    INTRA-                                  PIVOT    is down, Expecting price
                                          PIVOT
DAY LEV-                                           trend and may continue in     DAY
                                           6556                                 LEVELS                                  16550     may go down in coming
   ELS
                                                        upcoming days.                                                                    days.
                      RES. 1    RES. 2                                                    RESIS-   RES. 1    RES. 2
            RESIS-
            TANCE                                                                         TANCE     17130     17980
                       6723      6831



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                                                 WEEKLY RECOMMENDATIONS
                                                              DHANIYA (SEP.)




                                             BUY DHANIYA SEP ABOVE 11970 TGTS 12070 ,12170 SL 11820
                                             SELL DHANIYA SEP BELOW 11790 TGTS 11690,11590 SL 11950


                                                             GUARGUM (OCT.)




                                                            GUARSEED (AUG.)




                                             BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 16450 TGTS 16650, 16850 SL 16200
                                            SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 16000 TGTS 15800 , 15600 SL 16250


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                                                     COMMODITIES IN NEWS
                                                                                                      ECONOMIC NEWS
                                                                                    Russia's Agriculture Ministry forecasts the country's
   Continuing its rising streak for the third day, cardamom prices added            grain exports in the 2014-2015 agricultural year to hit a
    0.31% to Rs 950.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged         record of 27.5-30 million tonnes, during a ministry
    positions, supported by rising demand in the spot market. from rising            meeting on the grain market and interventions Tuesday.
    demand in the spot markets, restricted arrivals from producing regions,          On August 22, Agriculture Minister Nikolai said the
    mainly influenced cardamom prices at futures trade.                              ministry adjusted the country's grain export potential to
                                                                                     no less than 25-27 million tonnes, while earlier he said
   Coriander prices rose by 0.35 per cent on NCDEX as a result of the lim-          the harvest will amount to no less than 100 million ton-
    ited stocks on account of restricted arrivals from the major growing             nes of grain this year. Previous record for the country's
    belts. Sentiment improved further as the investors enlarged their hold-          grain exports was registered in the 2011-2012 agricul-
    ings tracking the surge in the demand for the commodity. Coriander is            tural year, when Russia exported 27.02 million tonnes
    common in South Asian, Middle Eastern, Central Asian, Indian, Latin              of grain.
    American Chinese, and Scandinavian cuisine..
                                                                                    Even as the stand-off between the Uttar Pradesh govern-
                                                                                     ment and private sugar mills on the cane pricing contin-
   Turmeric prices surged over 1 per cent to Rs 6,570 per quintal in futures
                                                                                     ues, the cane department on Wednesday announced
    trade today after speculators enlarged positions amidst rising exports de-
                                                                                     dates for the annual cane reservation meetings next
    mand. At the. Speculators enlarged positions, taking positive cues from
                                                                                     month. These come before the crushing season and are
    the spot market on rising exports demand mainly led to the rise in tur-
                                                                                     used to allocate cane areas to mills on the basis of de-
    meric prices at futures trade.
                                                                                     mand. But the mills had told the government about the
                                                                                     suspension of operations in the coming season till the
   Chana prices fell further by 0.53% in futures trade today as speculators
                                                                                     resolution of demands, including the linking of cane
    indulged in reducing holdings on higher output hopes. At the NCDEX
                                                                                     price to sugar one. These meetings are attended by rep-
    Chana for delivery in September declined by Rs 10, or 0.35% The fall in
                                                                                     resentatives of mills and cane societies..Under the law,
    Chana futures to increased supplies in the markets on expectations of
                                                                                     if mills fail to provide their cane demands, the govern-
    higher output at major producing belts
                                                                                     ment has the power to allocate cane area based on the
                                                                                     previous year's demand.
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                                                                  NEWS RECAP

                                                         COMMODITY HEADLINES

       Jan Dhan: India's new initiative on financial inclusion



       Sugar industry bats for buffer stock to mop up supply in market



       Fiscal deficit touches 61.2% of Budget Estimates in July-end



       BofA-ML, UBS see RBI cutting interest rates from next year



       Q1 GDP growth at 5.7% versus 4.6% QoQ; hits 2.5-year high



       FMC unveils uniform norms for accreditation of warehouses



       NCDEX introduces long staple cotton bales futures contract



       Food ministry to separate procurement, storage of foodgrains



         Monsoon activity to revive in west, central India


       Rabi crops including wheat may face water shortages as reservoirs under last year’s level



       Kharif sowing ends; total crop acreage down at 96.62 million hectare




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                                                     FUNDAMENTAL & MANDI NEWS
                                                                     JEERA
        Jeera futures traded down on selling pressure moving down 0.49% to Rs 11130. at India's National Commodity& Derivatives
         Exchange (NCDEX). Prices have declined on sluggish demand from the overseas buyers. Record output and huge carryover
         stocks have also pressurized prices.
        Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in
         Rajasthan .Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns
         from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Tur-
         key due to crop failure.
        India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14. Production of Jeera in 2013-14 is expected around 45-50 lakh
         bags (55 kgs each), higher than 40-45 lakh bags last year.


                                                                  TURMERIC
         Demand for turmeric in major spot markets is low due to the absence of buying activity following shortage of good quality
          stock. Turmeric on India's National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) touched Rs 6552.

         Turmeric futures are expected to trade on a negative note. Turmeric prices have been kept under check by higher acreage in
          Telangana coupled with sluggish physical demand and huge carry over stocks. However, demand from the north may lend sup-
          port to the prices.

         Sowing of Turmeric in Andhra Pradesh for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.075 lakh ha, as against 0.08 lakh ha last year
          and a normal sowing of 0.09 lakh ha. Production in 2013-14 is reported around 40 lakh bags, down by 10-15%. Exports be-
          tween Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 58,000 tn, higher than 49,526 tn in Apr-Dec 2012.



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