Iran War Moving Forward

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					Iran War Moving Forward
Executive Summary – It appears Iran will never agree to international demands regarding its nuclear program. This means a war is a very likely possibility. Iran is saber rattling again threatening to rain missile on Tel Aviv if their nuclear facilities get attacked by Israel or the USA. Of course the subtle threat is that if the develop nuclear weapons then they may attack not only Israel but also Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait operate as monarchy dictatorships contrary to muslim law. Analysis – Iran has no defense against the Israelis or Americans if either one of them chooses to attack Iran. The Iranians do not have the technical resources to stop Stealth Bombers, Israeli aircraft or Israeli missiles. Their noise about shooting missiles into Tel Aviv was just noise. This is what their strategy would likely be: 1. They have decoy nuclear sites designed to attract attacks and hopefully steer enemy resources away from their real sites. 2. Move their real installations to underground locations in the hopes of surviving attacks if these locations could be determined. The research laboratories would be the most important to protect. 3. Iran’s most likely response would be coming from their regional allies. This would be Syria, Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas. Iran has shifted missiles to these forces to use against Israel. The targets would not be civilian targets instead they would be military targets. This would include missile bases, radar installations and airstrips. The idea would be to destroy the airfields the Israeli planes would return to and stop further missile attacks. It is doubtful this would result in more than harassment actions. Discussion – Obama has of course failed in getting any sort of peace process going in the region. He has alienated the Israelis and Iran. War seems imminent. Iran will probably not have enough time to create havoc in the waterways of the region to curtail oil shipments. They do have a number of aggressive small craft that could do some damage and create oil spills. If the war was allowed to go on for many days then Iran would create a lot of damage so it would seem the USA would join in to prevent damage to regional shipping of oil as well as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Iran also supports Iraq forces causing the USA all the trouble in their Iraq theatre. The combined forces would probably eliminate any retaliation capability that Iran had on the first day or maybe in a few hours. The death toll would be high in Iran. The Iranian allies if they chose to attack Israel would face massive consequences from Israel. Israel is more than likely not going to do any ground invasions into Iran but they may be very likely to go into Syria and Lebanon eliminating any resistance force there permanently. If things get messed up as things often do in times of war there may be a spike in the price of oil. This will do nothing but increase the economic mess in the EU and USA. Watch and wait and remember you can always count on Obama to do something stupid. http://www.panamalaw.org