Hydrological and Sediment yield Modeling in the by pptfiles

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									 Hydrological Modeling and Impact of Climate
changes in the Caribbean Islands of Dominican
     Republic, Puerto Rico and Jamaica
                      Shimelis G Setegn, Ph.D.
                    Postdoctoral Research Scientist
       Florida International University, Dep. of Earth and Environment


                     19 October 2011, Mexico City,
                                Mexico


                         Project Personnel's
                         Assefa Melesse (PI)
                           Francisco Nunez
                             Dale Webber
                              Jorge Ortiz
                            Felipe Vicioso
The presentation consists of
l    CCS - Core Science Objectives
l    Study area
l    Modeling tools
l    Modeling Results
l   Climate change projections
l    Impact of climate change on water
    resources
            Caribbean Coastal Scenarios
              Core Science Objectives
n   Determine spatial and temporal variability in climate
    across the region.

n   Determine geographic & demographic characteristics
    of catchments
    –   topography, land cover, geology, soil, land management
        techniques, population, roads and infrastructure, urban
        systems, etc.

n    Consider present & future trends in the nature & distribution
    of dynamic characteristics
    –   e.g. land cover, management techniques, population,
         infrastructure, urban systems.
    Caribbean Coastal Scenarios
   Core Science Objectives (cont.)
n Simulate seasonal and inter-annual fluxes
 of fresh water, sediments, and dissolved
 loads to coastal zones as a function of
 climate and catchment characteristics.




 Montego Bay
                   STUDY AREA

Caribbean Costal Regions
l   Puerto Rico
     l Manate and Plata Basins


l   Dominican Republic
    l Haina and Yuna watersheds


l   Jamaica
     l Great River and Re Cobre
Islands of interest
Watershed Modeling
Overview of Watershed modelling
n   Many hydrological models are developed to describe
    the hydrology, erosion and sedimentation processes.
n   They describe the physical processes controlling the
    transformation of precipitation to runoff and
    detachment and transport of sediments.
n   Watershed models are used to implement
    alternative management strategies in the areas of
    –   water resources allocation
    –   flood control
    –   impact of land use change
    –   impact of climate change
    –   environmental pollution control
   SWAT (Soil water Assessment Tool)

ØSWAT is a river basin scale developed to predict the
impact of land management practices on water, sediment
and agricultural chemical yields

ØIt is a public domain model actively supported by the
USDA Agricultural Research Service at the Grassland, Soil
and Water Research Laboratory in Temple, Texas, USA.

ØThe SWAT system (ArcSWAT), embedded within
geographic information system (GIS),
   Øcan integrate various spatial environmental data, including soil,
   land cover, climate, and topographic features.
SWAT cont.


Ø The    model is physically based
       Øi.e., it requires specific information


Ø It   is computationally efficient
       ØSimulation of very large basins

Ø SWAT       enables to study long-term
  impacts
Phases of hydrologic cycle simulated by SWAT


                     Land
                     phase


                                           Water
                                           phase




                                        Courtesy:
                                      SWAT Manual
Model Input

Ø   GIS input files needed for the SWAT model
    include
       § the digital elevation model (DEM),
       § land cover, and
       § soil layers
Ø   The DEM can be utilized by ArcSWAT to
    delineate basin and subbasin boundaries,
    calculate subbasin average slopes and
    delineate the stream network.
Ø   The land use, soil and Slope layers are
    used to creat and define Hydrological
    response units (HRU’s).
                                     Model Input Cont.


Metrological Data

Ø   The weather variables for driving the hydrological
    balance are
     – precipitation,
     – air temperature,
     – solar radiation,
     – wind speed and
     – relative humidity.
                                          Model Input Cont.



Hydrological data

Ø   River Discharge and Suspended sediment load



Land Management
Ø   Management input files include planting, harvest, tillage
    operations, and pesticide and fertilizer application.
Model Calibration and Evaluation
l   The ability of a watershed model is evaluated through
    sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and model validation.

l   For model evaluation we used the goodness of measures
    such as NSE, R2,
MODELING RESULTS
Puerto Rico, Rio Manati
Time serious graph for calibration period – Rio Manati
         Annual average water balance of the
             Rio De Manati watershed
          Water balance Component        Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation                                            1620
Surface runoff                                             86

Lateral soil flow                                         386

Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer)                             3
Revap (shallow aquifer => soil/plants)                    102
Deep aquifer recharge                                          5
Total aquifer recharge                                     94
Total water yield                                         474
Percolation out of soil                                    89
Actual evapotranspiration                                1067
Potential evapotranspiration                             1838
Average Monthly Basin Values of Manati watershed

MONTH RAIN,      SURF Q,      LAT  Water Yield,     ET,      PET, 
S      (mm)      (mm)         Q     (mm)            (mm)     (mm)
     1    108.76          4.17 32.9           38.29    67.41   101.33
      2     88.83         5.01 26.28          32.13    76.37   121.58
      3    101.83         4.81 22.5           27.64   118.21   184.68
      4    151.33         7.36 23.39          30.89    116.1   172.32
      5    118.01         3.19 26.49          29.68   118.83   188.35
      6       61.9        0.93 19.67          20.61    98.55   203.88
      7      76.59        0.97 14.98          15.94    76.01   204.73
      8    145.36         2.99 20.23           23.2    73.26   172.56
      9    187.47         7.18 32.94          40.08    87.54   148.13
     10    272.15        29.28 56.65          85.78     87.8    129.2
     11    178.87        13.44 61.68             75     79.9   117.38
     12    131.44         6.57 48.81          55.29    69.08    97.17
Puerto Rico – Plata
                                       Area (%)
                                          0.003
                                          4.141
                                         28.387
                                          1.295
                                          0.225
                                          0.612
                                         51.078
                                          0.107
                                         13.015
                                          0.011
                                          1.127




             Land use: Plata Watershed, PR
Time serious graph for calibration period – Rio Plata
Dominican Republic - Rio Haina
                                 Area
                                  1.279
                                 46.922
                                 17.800
                                 10.244
                                  0.027
                                  4.916
                                  0.012
                                  0.296
                                 17.568
                                  0.936




          Land use: Haina Watershed, DR
Time serious graph for calibration period – Haina Watershed
                Annual average water balance of the
                         Haina watershed
          Water balance Component          Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation                                              2101
Surface runoff                                           927,63
Lateral soil flow                                            21
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer)                          215
Revap (shallow aquifer => soil/plants)                       17
Deep aquifer recharge                                     12.33
Total aquifer recharge                                   246.64
Total water yield                                       1161.63
Percolation out of soil                                  250.31
Actual evapotranspiration                                 890.6
Potential evapotranspiration                               1702
Jamaica, Great River Basin
Time series of observed and simulated monthly flow
for calibration (top) and validation (bottom) period at
              Lethe station of Great River
Jamaica, Rio Cobre Watershed
The time-series comparison between measured and
 simulated monthly flow at Rio Cobre Watershed
                Annual average water balance of the
                 Rio Cobre watershed (1997-2008).
          Water balance Component          Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation                                            1953.0
Surface runoff                                            102.8
Lateral soil flow                                         427.7
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer)                        368.8
Revap (shallow aquifer => soil/plants)                      9.0
Deep aquifer recharge                                      19.9
Total aquifer recharge                                    397.6
Total water yield                                         899.0
Percolation out of soil                                   393.5
Actual evapotranspiration                                1028.3
Potential evapotranspiration                             1579.8
    Monthly mean and seasonal water balance components for
                   the Rio Cobre watershed


Seasons/months        Rainfall, Surface      Lateral       Water    AET,    PET,
                      mm        runoff,      flow, mm      Yield,   mm      mm
                                mm                         mm


Average (1997-2008)    154.44        21.68         38.10    79.73   71.50   180.42


Dry (Jan-Mar)           57.72         4.20         11.67    28.24   68.12   180.33


Wet (Aug-Oct)          267.09        52.20         72.15 151.99     77.49   179.79
Spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration in
        the Rio Cobre Watershed, Jamaica.
Spatial distribution of water yield in the
   Rio Cobre Watershed, Jamaica.
           Climate Change




30 August 2010, Gran Melia, Puerto Rico, photo by Shimelis S
 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources
                 Variability
• GCM’s are numerical coupled models that represent various earth
  systems including the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and sea-
  ice and offer considerable potential for the study of climate change
  and variability.

Climate change scenarios
• Scenarios are images of the future, or alternative futures. They are
  neither predictions nor forecasts.

• The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) are grouped
  into four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2) that explore
  alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of
  demographic, economic and technological driving forces and
  resulting GHG emissions.
Center                                                                   Model                                        Atmospheric 
                                                                                                                      resolution (approx)

                                                                         AOM 4x3                                      4° x  3°
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), USA,
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA, USA                    GISS_ModelE-H                                4 ° x  5°

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)               Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3)

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office United     Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model,    1.25° x  1.875°
Kingdom                                                                  version 1 (HadGEM1)
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Norway (BCCR)                       Bergen Climate Model (BCM2.0)                2.8°×2.8°

Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canada (CCCMA)        Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3)         3.75°× 3.7°

Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques France(CNRM)               CNRM-CM3                                     2.8°× 2.8°

Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research              CSIRO Mark 3.0                               1.9°× 1.9°
Organisation Australia (CSIRO)
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research              CSIRO Mark 3.5                               1.9°× 1.9°
Organisation Australia (CSIRO)
Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology Germany (MPI-M)                      ECHAM5/MPI-OM                                1.9°× 1.9°

Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany), (MIUB)     ECHO-G                                       3.75°× 3.7° 

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA ( GFDL)                        CM2.0 - AOGCM                                2.5°× 2.0° 

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA (GFDL)                         CM2.1 - AOGCM                                2.5°× 2.0°  
Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia (INM)                         INMCM3.0                                     5.0°× 4.0° 
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace France (IPSL)                              IPSL-CM4                                     3.75°× 2.5°  
Meteorological Research Institute Japan (MRI)                            MRI-CGCM2.3.2                                2.8°× 2.8° 
National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA (NCAR)                      Parallel Climate Model (PCM)                 2.8°× 2.8° 

National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA(NCAR)                       Community Climate System Model, version      1.4°× 1.4° 
                                                                         3.0 (CCSM3)
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, United    HadCM3                                       3.75°× 2.5°
Kingdom - UK Met. Office UK (UKMO)
Trends in Climate Change - Temperature
Trends in Climate Change - Rainfall
Projected Seasonal changes in Rainfall
Changes in stream flow due to changes in precipitation and
  air temperature for the period 2046-2065 and 2080-2100
Changes in potential and actual evapotranspiration
       (PET and AET) for the 2046-2065
      Annual changes in potential and actual
evapotranspiration (PET and AET) for the 2080-2100
Annual changes in soil water storage for 2046
        -2065 and 2080-2100 period
Changes in surface and ground water for
  2046-2065 and 2080-2100 periods
Changes in surface and ground water for
  2046-2065 and 2080-2100 periods
Uncertainties in GCM model outputs
Thank You!




      30 August 2010, Puerto Rico

								
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