Ian Dunlop on Climate Change

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					Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                                                                             Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Global Sustainability
               Peak Oil, Climate Change and the                                                                                                                      - the ultimate “Tragedy of the Commons”
              Transition to Global Sustainability
                                                - the case for emergency action
                                                                                                                                                                  Global

                                                 Club Of Rome Global Assembly 2009                                                                                                         Decreasing concern for the “ Commons ”
                                                                                                                                                                National
                                                                        Amsterdam
                                                                                         27th   October 2009
                                                                                                                                                                   Local

                                                                                           Ian T. Dunlop                                                        Individual
                                                                                 Member, Club of Rome
                                                                        Director, Safe Climate Australia
                                                      Independent Governance & Sustainability Advisor                                       “ What is common to the greatest number has the least care bestowed
                                        Deputy Convenor, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil                                   upon it. Everyone thinks chiefly of his own, hardly at all of the common
                                                                                                                                            interest ”
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aristotle, Politics, Book II ch.3
                                                                                                                                   1                                                                                                                        2

                                                                                                                         Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                                  Ian Dunlop 2009




                                                                       World Population                                                                       World Ecological Footprint
                                                             - a unique point in history -                                                             - humanity today needs 1.3 planets to survive-



                                        12
                                                                                      Where to ?
                                        10
                 Population - billion




                                        8

                                        6
                                                                          Today                                ?
                                                                       A Full World
                                        4
                                                          1945 – An Empty World
                                        2

                                        0
                                        -2000        -1000             0          1000            2000         3000
                                                        BC                 Year                  AD
                                                                                                                                        3                                                                                                                   4
              Source: J.E.Cohen, Columbia University, New York, 2005                                                  Ian Dunlop 2009            Source: Living Planet Report 2008, WWF, GFN,ZSL                                          Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                          Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                                     Poverty & Inequality                                                               The Great Convergence
                                                        - where the wealth is
                                                                                                 Peak Oil


                                                                                                 Climate Change
                                                                                                                                                        All Symptoms of an
                                                                                                                                                           Unsustainable
                                                                                                 Water                                                        World

                                                                                                 Food

                                                                                                 Financial
                                                                                             5   Instability                                                                          6
          Source: UN Human Development Report 2005                         Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                          Ian Dunlop 2009




                                                            Cheap Energy                                     World Primary Energy Demand
                     - has been the basis for our prosperity                                      IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 – reference scenario
                                                                                                               - “this is patently unsustainable” - IEA




                                                                                             7                                                                                        8
                                                                           Ian Dunlop 2009          Source: © OECD/IEA –WEO 2008 – Reference Scenario               Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                                                                           Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                                                                                                                                                                        Short Term Oil Supply
                                                                                    Peak Oil                                                                                - struggling to meet demand
                                   - will fundamentally change energy supply

                 Production mb/d




                                                                  Peak
                                                                     50% still to be produced




                                                                                                                       9                                                                                                           10
                                                                                                     Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                                 Ian Dunlop 2009




                                                       The Growing Gap                                                                                             Global Oil & Gas Depletion
                                                                                                                                    Million barrels                      WORLD OIL & GAS PRODUCTION
                                                 THE GROWING GAP                                                                        per day                              ASPO 2008 base case
                                                                                                                                     (equivalent)
                                               Regular Conventional Oil
                                                                                                                                    140000
                                                                                                                                      140
                                    60                                                                                                                  NonCon Gas
                                                                                                                                    120000
                                                                                                                                      120               Gas
                                                                  Past Discovery
                                    50                                                                                                                  NGL
                                                                  Future Discovery                                                  100000
                                                                                                                                      100               Polar Oil
                                    40                            Production                                                                            Deepwater Oil
                                                                                                                                     80000
                                                                                                                                       80

                                                                                                                           kb/doe
                                                                                                                                                        Heavy Oil
                         Gb/a




                                    30
                                                                                                                                       60
                                                                                                                                     60000              Reg.Oil
                                    20                              Revisions backdated &
                                                                    rounded with 3yr moving                                          40000
                                                                                                                                       40
                                                                    average Campbell, 2008

                                    10
                                                                                                                                       20
                                                                                                                                     20000

                                     0                                                                                                                                                                       2009
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        0
                                      1930   1950   1970   1990    2010        2030           2050
                                                                                                                                         1930                     1950                         1970   1990    2010   2030
                                                                                                                   11                                                                                                              12
            Source: Colin Campbell 2008                                                              Ian Dunlop 2009                         Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)                    Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                                               Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                       Wealth and Emissions have been                                                                                                    Climate Change
                                                    inextricably linked                                                                            - The Safe Climate Zone




                                                                                                       13                                                                                              14
                                                                                         Ian Dunlop 2009    Source: Robert Corell, Heinz Center                                          Ian Dunlop 2009




                        Current Impact of Climate Change                                                            Committed Warming as of 2005
                                                                                                                               - probably 2.4oC, range (1.4 to 4.3oC)

                                                                                                                                                       Tipping Elements




          “An estimated 325 million people are seriously affected by climate change each year”
                                                                                                                                   Source: Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS
                                                                                                       15                                                                                              16
           Source: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum, May 2009   Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                 Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                                                                        Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                Risks are escalating fast                                                           Best Copenhagen Emission Reductions
                                                                                                                Guarantee Temperature Increase Above 20C
                                                                - the evidence

               Human carbon emissions accelerating
               Rapid summer melt of Arctic sea ice
               Decline in natural carbon sinks
               Tipping point for ice sheet loss & glaciers at lower
                temperatures than expected                                                                                                                                                        Legend:
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Red/Brown = implication of current
               Large increase in projected sea level rise                                                                                                                                        best political emission reduction
               Increased ocean acidification                                                                                                                                                     commitments
               Initial indications of Arctic permafrost & seabed methane                                                                                                                         Blue/Green = implication of limiting
                hydrate (clathrate) emissions                                                                                                                                                     emissions to 1 trillion tonnes CO2
                                                                                                                                                                                                  between 2000 and 2050

                                                                                                  17                                                                                              Probability ranges shown for each case       18
                                                                                                           Source: Rogeli, Hare et al, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, June 2009
                                                                                    Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                                                              Ian Dunlop 2009




                                                                Urgency                                                                                             Climate Science & Policy
                                                       - time for realism                                                                                               are badly misaligned
              Latest science suggests 2oC temperature rise is far too high:
                   non-linear effects are already occurring at 0.8o C rise
                   tipping points may be already committed                                                 Negotiating parameters based on outdated science.
                   we are probably well into the danger zone already

              The new objective, for a safe climate - restore Arctic summer sea ice                        Speed and extent of climate change badly
                   stabilisation target - around 300ppm CO2 or 350ppm CO2e
                   not the 450-550ppm CO2e currently being negotiated                                       underestimated.
              This requires developed world emission reductions of:
                
                
                    45-50% by 2020, not 5-25%
                    95-100% by 2050, not 50-80%
                                                                                                            Increasing risk of sudden, irreversible climatic failure.
                   and re-absorption of some carbon from atmosphere

              A far greater task than is being acknowledged politically or corporately

                                 - we have the solutions, given the will -                        19                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                    Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                                                              Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                                                               Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                                                                       The Reality                                                                The Nub of the Matter

               Despite 20 years of negotiation, virtually nothing
                has been done to contain global warming                                                                               “You already know enough. So do I. It is not the knowledge we lack.
                                                                                                                                          What is missing is the courage to understand what we know
                                                                                                                                                             and draw conclusions”
               Little sign of that changing at Copenhagen
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sven Lindquist


               We have run out of time to make a graduated
                response

                                                                                                                                 21                                                                                             22
                                                                                                                   Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                Ian Dunlop 2009




                                  We face a Global Sustainability                                                                                 - needing an Emergency Response
                                                    Emergency -
          “ This is an emergency and for emergency situations we need
                                                                                                                                                                                  - what does it mean?
          emergency action”
                                                 Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary General
                                                               7th November 2007

          “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in                                                        A Re-construction Programme akin to:
          energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable –
          environmentally, economically, socially. But that can – and must- be                                                               US response post-Pearl Harbour
          altered; there’s still time to change the road we’re on. It is not an
          exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on                                                               Marshall Plan for re-construction of Europe post WW2
          how successful we tackle the two central challenges facing us today:
          securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a                                                         Rapid change can occur with the right incentive:
          rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally
          benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an                                                              we now have that incentive
          energy revolution.
                                   International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008
                                                                      12th November 2008
                                                                                                                                         Financial Crisis
                                                                                                                                             should be an opportunity rather than an excuse for inaction
                                                                                                                                         Leadership
                                                                                                                                             must be transformational not incremental
                                                                                                                                         Integrated solutions are essential
          “The public and many governments appear to be oblivious to the fact                    www.climatecodered.net                      climate, energy, water, food
          that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far
          faster than previously predicted ---”
                                     Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency                                   23                                                                                             24
                                                             The Independent, 3rd August 2009
                                                                                                                   Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                                        Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                               Emergency Action
                                             - technical components
                                                                                                              - Technology Implementation is Lagging
              Rapid phase out of high-emission assets
                  unless carbon can be safely sequestered
              Major, nation-building, investments in:
                  Energy conservation & efficiency
                  Renewable energy
                  Latest generation nuclear
                  Efficient public transport
                  High-speed broadband
                  Low-emission technologies
                  Terrestrial Carbon
                    halt de-forestation, accelerate re-forestation, biosequestration, farming practices

              Technology transfer & financial support from developed to
               developing world
                  innovative technology must enable developing world to “leapfrog” developed world
                                                                                                         25      World Development Report 2010, World Bank                                         26
                                                                                           Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                           Ian Dunlop 2009




          Public Energy R&D in IEA Countries                                                                                                            The Low Carbon Economy
                                                                                                                                                             - who will win the race ?




                                                                                                                                                                                                   28
                                                                                           Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                           Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
Club of Rome - Keynote Address                                                                                                                                                       Amsterdam, 27th October, 2009




                                        New initiatives required                                                                                 Critical Policy Elements
                 Existing negotiation process is unlikely to deliver                                                   Set key parameters (eg targets) based on science
                       danger of policy freeze post-Copenhagen                                                             not on a political view of the “art-of-the-possible”
                                                                                                                        Acknowledge this is an emergency needing an emergency response
                                                                                                                            not incremental change to “business-as-usual”
                 Working “within the system” has failed
                                                                                                                        Base response primarily on moral & ethical grounds, not economics
                 A circuit-breaker is required to move:                                                                    economics is valuable to set the most efficient path, but not as determinant of targets
                                                                                                                        Balanced portfolio of solutions, focusing on:
                       from incrementalism to transformation                                                               new opportunities and costs of inaction
                       political & corporate mindsets beyond their comfort zone                                            not costs of action, shoring up and compensating established vested interests
                                                                                                                        Genuine global leadership, with concrete proposals for developing world
                                                                                                                            convergence toward global per capita carbon & oil allocations
                 A new approach must encompass:
                                                                                                                        Focus on integrated solutions
                       strong emphasis on community awareness
                                                                                                                            climate change, peak oil, water & food shortages, financial crisis are all inter-related.
                       refocusing progressive organisations on far more ambitious
                        objectives and preparedness to work around “the system”                                         Honestly explain & educate community on implications of the emergency
                                                                                                                            to build commitment for action
                       exerting peer pressure on, and giving support to, global leaders for
                        transformative change                                                                   29      Take rapid, decisive action                                                                             30
                                                                                                  Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                                  Ian Dunlop 2009




                                                Our Great Opportunity
                 - for our current way-of-life is unsustainable                                                              Time for the “Global Safety Case”
                 Mobilisation to establish sustainable, resilient societies
                      conventional economic growth is untenable, new models required.                                                             “It is no use saying “We are doing our best”.
                                                                                                                                           You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary”
                 Re-defining success
                      based on long-term sustainability, not maximising consumption                                                                                                          Winston Churchill

                 Re-designing markets                                                                                                     This was the way industry moved
                       based on enhancing the “Commons”, not short-term profit maximisation
                  
                                                                                                                                                    from being a –
                 New forms of community involvement & democratic structure                                                      “rough, tough place where people expect to get hurt”
                      essential, given the extent of change required
                      traditional elites unlikely to provide leadership                                                                   -to exemplary safety performance
                 Developed / developing world cooperation
                      new paradigm built around climate / energy solutions
                                                                                                                                       We must now do the same at the global level
                 Business & governance models re-structured
                      incentives re-focused, governance & corporate responsibility re-defined.

                  Technology is critical
             
                      combined with changing values                                                                                                          Thank you
                 Peak Oil & the Financial Crisis                                                                        www.aspo-australia.org.au                                             itdunlop@ozemail.com.au
                      essential circuit-breakers to trigger a sustainability transformation                    31                                                                                                               32
                      not an excuse for inaction                                                                        www.safeclimateaustralia.org
                                                                                                  Ian Dunlop 2009                                                                                                  Ian Dunlop 2009




itdunlop@ozemail.com.au