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幻灯片 1 - OpenChina-ICT

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幻灯片 1 - OpenChina-ICT Powered By Docstoc
					   The ICT Needed when
Systems Science Goes Global
               Zhangang Han
      Department of Systems Science
         Beijing Normal University
             Nov. 15-16, 2012
        OpenChina-ICT Dialogue
          My Back Ground
§ Statistical Physics and Artificial
  Intelligence
§ Professor and Chairman of Department of
  Systems Science, Director of Laboratory
  of Systems Analysis, Beijing Normal
  University
          Global Systems Science
§ Systems that have global impacts

§   Global warming, Climate change
§   Green growth
§   Financial systems
§   Energy, Water shortage
§   Food security
§   Nuclear security
§   Pollution
§   Economic development, Imports and exports

§ Interaction is important to understand a GSS
              ICT we expect
§ Data usually cover a variety of fields
§ Repetitive: we wish to do experiments to test the
  policies
§ Answer What-if questions
§ May incorporate data-driven models: data mining,
  text mining
§ Should include “trigger”, thresholds, criteria
§ Validation protocol
§ Aim at real application
              ICT We need
§ Tools that could be used to understand the GSS
§ Accumulate knowledge
§ Group Decision Making Support System
§ A compatible frame work that incorporate data
  workers, modelers, decision makers from a
  variety of backgrounds /interests
§ Help make decision during emergency/crises
§ Train the policy makers and students
      Configuration of the Integrated
            Decision Making
§   Data Observation and Visualization
§   Modeling
§   Policy Options
§   Regressive integrated DM
§   Evaluation and feedback from policy implementations

§   Data Collectors
§   Modelers
§   Domain Experts
§   Decision Makers
§   People execute these policies
                The Data

§ Proper variable selection
§ Correct interpretation, narratives
§ Visualization of what is going on and input
  to the model
§ Map the data and interpretation to policies
§ Compatibility of the data that can cover the
  need for multi-disciplinary modelers and
  different interest policy makers
                   The Models
§ Top-down approaching:
  – collective macro level variables, individuals are
    regarded the same with any other individual, interaction
    between a mass of individuals
§ Complex network approach:
  – when we are not quite clear with detailed interactions,
    when we need to perceive in the macro-level instead of
    the micro-level.
§ Bottom-up approach:
  – individual micro-level variables (individual may stand for
    a group), each individual is different with any other
    individual, evolutionary rules, environment, interactions
    between individuals
           The Parameters
§ Extracted from observations
§ Experience comes in: Experience is also
  Science, domain expert
§ What-if analysis to determine the
  parameters
§ Interactions between the modelers and
  domain experts and policy makers
         The Policy Alternatives
§   Previously used policies
§   Policies adopted in other countries/places
§   Policy effects provided
§   Policies suggestions triggered by the results
    of the models

§ Evaluate the effect and feedback
                     Challenges
§ Multidisciplinary, long-time collaboration, develop a
  research program, teams, organizations
§ Comprise a variety of fields that talk in totally different
  languages, different meanings for same words/ sentences
§ Co-evolution of research objects, data
§ Complex system: non-linear, multi-scale, positive feedback,
  irreversible, phase transitions, micro interactions that result
  in macro collective behavior, emergence
§ Global, don’t forget we start from the basis: bath-tub
  dynamics
    Thanks


•
                                  Department of Systems
  Thanks                          Science, Beijing Normal
                                  University
§ The Department of Systems Science ranks top of the
  Systems Science research institutes in Chinese
  universities.
§ The research program encompasses both theory-
      oriented and applications aspects of the field.
§ Research interests of the department include
   –   complex systems theory
   –   socio-economic systems
   –   computational neuro-science
   –   evolutionary computation and agent-based systems.

				
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posted:4/25/2014
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