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Apr 01_ 2014 Angel Commodities - Moneycontrol.com

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					                                                                                                Commodities Evening Update
                                                                                                                                      Tuesday| April 1, 2014

International Commodities




Content
Day’s overview

Market Highlights

Outlook

Important Events for Today




Research Team

Anish Vyas
Research Analyst
anish.vyas@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Kaynat Chainwala
Research Associate
kaynat.chainwala@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136




Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.
Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302


Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and
correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in
part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com
                                                                          Commodities Evening Update
                                                                                                            Tuesday| April 1, 2014

   International Commodities
News and Analysis
  Indian currency markets closed today on the eve of annual closing.
                                                                           Performance during the day                                  as at 4.00 pm – 1 April’14
  German Unemployment Change fell by 12,000 in February.                                                                                                       % Chg
  UK’s Manufacturing PMI plunged to 55.3-mark in March.                    Index
                                                                                                    Open             High        Low              Last
                                                                                                                                                             from Prev
                                                                                                                                                                day

European equities are trading on a positive note today on the back of      Nifty                    6729.50         6732.25      6675.45         6721.05             0.25
positive economic data from Euro Zone. Asian markets ended on a
                                                                           Sensex                  22455.23 22485.77 22295.65                   22446.44             0.27
mixed note and the US stock futures are trading in the green.
                                                                           Nikkei                  14870.51 14870.51 14751.29                   14791.99             -0.24
Spanish Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8-mark in March from 52.5
                                                                           Kospi                    1983.78         1991.98      1976.06         1991.98             0.32
level in February. Italian Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4-mark in
March from 52.3 level in the last month. German Unemployment               FTSE                    21738.96 21824.47 21711.21                   21711.21             0.61
Change fell by 12,000 in February as gains a decline of 15,000 in
                                                                                                                                                               Source: Reuters
January. UK’s Manufacturing PMI plunged to 55.3-mark in March from                                                                      as at 4.00 pm – 1 April’14
56.2 levels in February. Euro zone’s Unemployment Rate remained                                                                                               % Chg from
                                                                           Currency                  Open           High        Low            Current         Prev day
unchanged at 11.9 percent in February.
                                                                           Dollar Index                   80.26       80.29     80.175             80.21                 -0.05
Spot gold prices gained around 0.1 percent today on the back of rise
                                                                           Euro/$ Spot                   1.3767      1.3801     1.3766            1.3795                 0.18
in risk appetite in the market sentiments coupled with weakness in
the DX. However, fall in SPDR gold holdings capped sharp gains. In the     INR/$ Spot                    59.925      60.035     59.925             60.02                 0.02
                                                                                                                                                               Source: Reuters
Indian markets, gold prices fell by 0.5 percent today touching a low of
Rs.28346/10 gms till 4:00 pm IST.                                                                                                      as at 4.00 pm – 1 April’14
                                                                                                                                                                        % Chg
Spot silver prices rose by 0.4 percent today taking cues from gain in          Commodity          Unit              Open        High            Low          Last        from
                                                                                                                                                                      Prev day
gold prices. Also, weakness in the DX along with upbeat global market      Spot Gold                $/oz          1284.52 1288.10          1278.34        1284.70            0.08
sentiments acted as positive factors. However, fall in base metal          Comex Gold Apr’14        $/oz          1285.10 1287.90          1277.30        1285.00            0.12
prices restricted sharp positive movement. On the MCX, silver prices
gained around 0.3 percent today.                                           MCX Gold –              Rs/10      28610.00 28615.0 28346.00                  28402.00        -0.47
                                                                           June’14                  gms

Base metals on the LME apart from Aluminium traded lower today on          Spot Silver              $/oz            19.71      19.89         19.60          19.79            0.41
                                                                           Comex Silver             $/oz            19.77      19.91         19.635        19.752            0.37
the back of unfavorable manufacturing data from the biggest                Mar’14
consumer, China and UK. Also, mixed economic data from Euro Zone
                                                                           MCX Silver –            Rs/kg           42743      43000           42560        42920             0.27
along with mixed trend in LME inventories acted as a negative factor.      May’14

However, rise in risk appetite in the market sentiments along with         Crude Oil Nymex –       $/bbl           101.53     101.57         101.01        101.35        -0.23
                                                                           May ‘14
weakness in the DX cushioned sharp downside. In the Indian markets,
                                                                           ICE -Brent Crude        $/bbl           107.66     107.77         107.41        107.61        -0.14
base metals traded lower today.                                            Oil
                                                                           MCX Crude Oil Apr      Rs/bbl            6104       6107             6080         6104        -0.25
LME Copper prices fell by 0.1 percent today on the back of weak            ’14
manufacturing data from China and UK. Also, mixed economic data            Copper LME - 3        $/tonne          6652.75 6670.25           6625.00       6639.00        -0.09
                                                                           Month
from Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices. However,
                                                                           MCX Copper -            Rs/kg           403.50     404.50         402.30        403.10        -0.26
weakness in the DX along with 0.7 percent decline in inventories to        April’14

263,250 tonnes prevented sharp downside movement in prices of the          Zinc LME - 3 Month    $/tonne          1983.50 1985.50           1962.00       1967.75        -0.79
red metal. Also, rise in risk appetite in the market supported gains.
                                                                           Zinc MCX - April’14     Rs/kg           119.40     119.50         118.05        118.45        -0.29
MCX Copper prices fell by 0.3 percent today.
                                                                           Lead LME - 3          $/tonne            2062       2069             2048         2054        -0.76
                                                                           Month
Nymex crude oil prices traded lower by around 0.2 percent today on
                                                                           Lead MCX -              Rs/kg           124.25     124.25         122.80        123.35            0.61
the back of concerns of dampened demand prospects on account of            April’14
slowdown in manufacturing activity in the biggest consumer, China.         Nickel LME - 3        $/tonne           15950      15950           15740        15790         -0.76
                                                                           Month
However, weakness in the DX cushioned sharp downside. MCX crude
                                                                           Nickel MCX -            Rs/kg           956.10     957.20         947.50        951.30            0.60
oil prices declined around 0.3 percent today.                              April’14
                                                                           Aluminum LME - 3      $/tonne          1784.00 1796.50           1775.00       1785.25            0.07
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its         Month
                                                                           Aluminum MCX -          Rs/kg           106.00     106.70         105.65        106.15            2.12
weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to      April’14
                                                     th
gain by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending on 28 March 2014.
                                                                         Commodities Evening Update
                                                                                                Tuesday| April 1, 2014

International Commodities
 Outlook

 In the evening session, we expect bullion, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of weakness in
 the DX along with upbeat market sentiments that will act as a positive factor.

 While on the other hand, declining trend in holdings will cap sharp upside or even reversal in gold and silver prices.

 In case of base metal and crude prices, estimates of positive manufacturing PMI data from the US in the evening session will
 likely reverse the trend.




                                           st
 Technical Outook for evening session – 1 April’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
                                                       Support 2                Support 1        CMP         Resistance1      Resistance 2
 Commodity                             Unit
 Gold June’14                     Rs/10 gm                 27880                    28000       28110              28230            28340
 Spot Gold                             $/oz                 1273                     1279        1285                  1292             1300
 Silver May’14                        Rs /kg               42250                    42600       42920              43200            43550
 Spot Silver                           $/oz                19.50                    19.65       19.82               19.95            20.12
 Crude Oil Apr’14                    Rs /bbl               6050                     6075        6104                6135             6165
 Nymex Crude Oil May’14               $/bbl               100.45                    100.9      101.35               101.9            102.4
 Natural Gas April’14            Rs /mmbtu                  258                      261        264.4                268              271
 LME Copper                         $/tonne                 6550                     6600       6640                   6690             6735
 Copper April’14                      Rs /kg                 398                      401      403.25                   406              409
 Zinc April’14                        Rs /kg               116.7                    117.5       118.4               119.2             120
 Lead April’14                        Rs /kg               121.6                    122.5      123.35               124.1             125
 Aluminum April’14                    Rs /kg               104.7                    105.4      106.05               106.8            107.4
 Nickel April’14                      Rs /kg                935                      943         951                 960              970


   Important Events for Today
   Indicator                                    Country            Time (IST)        Actual    Forecast        Previous        Impact
   Tankan Manufacturing Index                    Japan              5:20am             17         19              16           Medium
   Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index                Japan              5:20am             24         24              20           Medium
   Manufacturing PMI                             China              6:30am            50.3       50.1            50.2            High
   Average Cash Earnings y/y                     Japan              7:00am            0.0%       -0.1%           -0.2%         Medium
   HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI                  China              7:15am             48        48.5            48.5            High
   Spanish Manufacturing PMI                     Euro              12:45pm            52.8       52.9            52.5          Medium
   Italian Manufacturing PMI                     Euro               1:15pm            52.4       52.2            52.3          Medium
   German Unemployment Change                    Euro               1:25pm            -12K        -9K            -15K          Medium
   Manufacturing PMI                              UK                2:00pm            55.3       56.7            56.9            High
   Unemployment Rate                             Euro               2:30pm           11.9%       12.0%          11.9%          Medium
   ECOFIN Meetings                               Euro                Day 1              -          -               -           Medium
   ISM Manufacturing PMI                          US                7:30pm              -        54.2            53.2            High

				
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