UK Overview - ismor

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					              UK MOD
Strategic Defence & Security Review
          Analysis Support

• Introduction
   – SDSR Background
• Analysis through the SDSR
   – Supporting decision-makers
• …and since
• Some Observations

National Security Strategy

Strategic Defence and Security
  Review (SDSR)

            National Security Strategy
•   Strategic Context
•   Britain’s Distinctive Role
•   National Security Risk Assessment
•   National Security Tasks & Planning Guidelines

• Adaptable Britain
    –   Respond to highest priority risks
    –   Respond to low probability but very high impact risks
    –   Focus on upstream activity
    –   Retain a broad spectrum of security and defence capabilities
    –   Strengthen relationships with key allies
    –   Coordinate and integrate whole of Government response

                But it’s the economy, stupid.......

The spend, in real terms has
    remained constant.
 Defence costs in excess of
inflation erode buying power

                               •   UK Personnel Costs
                                   – Average 1.7% above inflation per annum

                               •   UK Equipment & Support costs
                                   – 3-5% above inflation per annum

         Outcomes - SDSR Themes
•   Uncertainty: adaptability; readiness
•   Future Conflict: intelligence; precision; mobility
•   Independence: UK; Overseas Territories
•   Multilateralism: risk management
•   Combat Focused: reductions in non-front line areas
•   Affordability

Defence Head Office structure

                                                   18-20 Oct 2010

Overview of analytical support to SDSR
                 Spending Review                                     Advice on cyber
                                                                       & horizon
                                                         NSS                                   Highlight, and
  National Security Strategy                                            scanning
                                                                                               help mitigate,
     Work strands                                                Implementation                risks of PR11

                          Synthesis (DSG and NSC)                                             Learn lessons to
                                                                                              improve support
                                Policy      Capability                                        to future SDSRs
                               Choices       Choices
                                                                                               Workshops with
                                         SDSR      SDSR
                                                                               Detail          stakeholders to
                                                                                               shape strategy
                       work strand       Defence Industry & Technology Policy
                          ideas.                                               Green              White
 Advice and                                                                    Paper              Paper
 analysis to           Force structure
                                                    Defence Reform Review
support 18 of               risk
  41 work               assessment           Defence Acquisition Reform Programme
  strands June
May               July      August        Sept    Oct          Nov       Dec            Jan       Apr      Sep
                                                                                                 2011      2011
                                                 Technical advice and alignment with
                                                      Dstl and S&T strategies
Cost Analysis aided the understanding
of the scale of the financial savings
• Negotiations with Treasury reduced savings target from 10-20% to 7.5%
   – Cost analysis helped explain to VCDS, Strategy and Finance staff why MoD’s plans
     needed to reduce by 25-40% to achieve savings of 10-20%

Cost Analysis aided the understanding
of the scale of the financial savings
• Negotiations with Treasury reduced savings target from 10-20% to 7.5%
   – Cost analysis helped explain to VCDS, Strategy and Finance staff why MoD’s plans
     needed to reduce by 25-40% to achieve savings of 10-20%

             Developing the Defence Response

                             Matching Resource to Aspiration

 Levels of

              Homeland             Influence               Intervention             Stabilisation
                                            Policy Choices
                 Prioritise Capabilities and shape the force structure to achieve affordability

Analysis Tools aided the understanding of the
relationship between Planning Assumptions, Costs and
Force Structure

Analysis helped inform the development
of Defence Planning Assumptions

• The Armed Forces in the future will be sized and
  shaped to conduct Standing Commitments plus:
   – an enduring stabilisation operation
   – one non-enduring complex intervention     Set at 2 interventions
                                              after analysis showed
   – one non-enduring simple intervention
                                             that 3 were unaffordable
                                             and unlikely historically

 Chosen by National Security
  Council from 3 affordable
postures developed using Dstl
          FaST tool

Analysis Supported the development of
Future Force 2020

Analysis Supported the development of
Future Force 2020
•   Developed initially by DG Strategy, drawing upon Dstl analysis
    – Scenario-based analysis generated insights into force requirements
    – Force structure analysis highlighted differences between ‘ideal’ DPA force
      structure and 2015 post-Afghanistan force
    – Synthesis of workstrand paper ideas
        • Identified 5 key questions that drive the shape of the force
        • Generated three coherent force structures for 10% and 20% savings
        • Highlighted constraints and dependencies between policy aspirations
          and capability

•   Tested forces emerging from Senior Decision Maker discussions
    – Informed VCDS Senior Judgement Panel debates on the value of major
      force elements

•   Capability analysis informed the understanding of risk within and
    across the Defence Planning Assumptions

Output Evolution                                                                     Understanding new
                                                                                     Policy by Capability
                                                                                                            Optimised Force
                                                    Dynamic                          Area
    By area with specific                         Demonstrator
                             Changes to

                                                                                                                              Impact of PR11
                                 Shortfalls &                                      Impact of                                    Measures
                            Affluences in Force                                  possible Policy
                                  Structure                                         Choices
                                                            Capability Audit Risks

    Cost Effectiveness
                                                                                                   Impact of PR11
    of Force Elements
                                                                                                   SDSR Measures

                                                                                                      Risk in FF20
                                                           Risks in for a given Force Structure against a given Policy

                                        Investigation into specific areas for IAB submissions, e.g. JCA, SCAVENGER, AH

•      Increasing number of levels of information
         –    From Whole Force Structure, Capability Packages / Areas, down to Force Elements
•      Increasing range of tailored communication methods
         –    Including; handouts, interactive briefings, supported desk level discussions, memos
•       Increasing amount of interaction
         –    From set handout or brief to interactive briefs holding a depth of information as required
•      Increasing combinations of outputs
         –    Optimisation and risk picture, joint outputs with other specific studies (e.g. Joint Fires)


            But....the world moves on...
• Funny old thing...
  –   Some residual variance on the programme
  –   Reality of reaping all of the predicted savings
  –   Overall size and shape of the Army post Afg
  –   New CDM (Bernard Grey) cost realism
  –   FOREX/Fuel

          The “3 Month Exercise”
  –   Equipment Affordability
  –   Reserves Review
  –   Basing study
  –   Implications of ‘Arab Spring’

Analysis in support of the 3 Month Exercise
• MoD needed to better understand
  the requirement to re-balance the
   – Responsive Cost Analysis
• Further Senior Judgement Panels
  recommended areas where
  reductions could and couldn't be
   – Dstl provided 8 perspectives on Force
     Structure & Capability
   – Costs, risks against Defence Planning
     Assumptions, and implications in terms of
     historic operations context

• SofS announcement 18th July 2011

          Some Analysis Observations...
• The challenge of ‘real decision-support’ vs ‘doing studies’
   – The use of analysis is not a given
   – Has to prove itself useful and credible
   – Timely and accessible

• Value of ‘deployed analysts’

• Foundation of the evidence base and tools
   – Force Structure Cost Model
   – Force Structure analysis tools
   – Strategic Balance of Investment & capability analysis

• Value of visualisation techniques & responsive tools

• Flexibility, responsiveness and determination



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