Docstoc

Review for the Final

Document Sample
Review for the Final Powered By Docstoc
					           Review for the Final: I

                Concepts and Analytics




Llad Phillips                            1
             Part I
Coordinating the Components
of the Criminal Justice System

                 Part II
          The Serious Offender



 Llad Phillips                   2
Questions About Crime
￿ Can   we explain trends in crime and
  trends in expenditure on the criminal
  justice system?
￿ What is the right mix of enforcement
  and corrections?




Llad Phillips                             3
Llad Phillips   4
Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
                    Causes ?!!       “The Driving Force”
                         Weak Link

Offense         Crime Generation
Rate Per                                   Expected
Capita                                     Cost of
                                           Punishment
                                           (detention,
                                           deterrence)
                  Expenditures



                 Crime Control
Conclusions
￿ Causal  conditions continue to get worse
￿ As a consequence we have to spend
  more real dollars per person to keep
  crime levels from rising
￿ Crime acts like a tax
      ￿ Californians   spend $450 (1992$) per
          person on criminal justice to keep things
          from getting worse
Llad Phillips                                     6
Question
￿ What      happened around 1980 to
     differentiate the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s
     from the 80’s and 90’s?
      ￿ was there a change in behavior?
      ￿ was there a change in policy?




Llad Phillips                                 7
Llad Phillips   8
Llad Phillips   9
                Law Enforcement




                  Prosecution




                    Courts                 Public Defense




      State Prisons          Other Corrections

Llad Phillips                                         10
     Abstraction (Model) of the Criminal Justice Syste



     Enforcement      New
     Prosecution      Admits
     Defense                    State Prisons
     Courts

                                       Mean
                                       Years
                                       Served



Llad Phillips                                   11
      Tradeoff Between Criminal Justice System Outputs



 Admits
 per Year
 per capita




                    a

                              average years served
      tan a = admits per year per capita/average years served
Llad Phillips                                        12
Capital constraint
￿ admits   per capita per year * average
  years served = prisoners per capita
￿ Prisoners per capita is limited by prison
  capacity
￿ If you increase admits per capita per
  year, then average years served
  decreases until prison capacity catches
  up
Llad Phillips                           13
Llad Phillips   14
                              Coordinating CJS




    Constraint: Admits per year*Average years served =
                 Prisoners


                Admits
                per Year


                           45 degrees
                              Average Years Served
Llad Phillips                                      15
      A Shifting Mix In Criminal Justice System Outputs

                                   Facts
                                   1. spend more
                        1998
 Admits                            2. Admit more
 per Year                          3. shorter time served
 per capita,
 AD
                          1967    Prison Capacity Constraint
                    a


                    a

                              average years served, S
      tan a = admits per year per capita/average years served
Llad Phillips                                         16
1994



       1986

       1952

              1975
Part II
￿ The           Serious Offender
      ￿a   few serious criminals account for most
        crimes
      ￿ if free, each serious offender would commit
        crimes at the rate of l per year
      ￿ if there are N serious offenders, they would
        commit l*N offenses per year, if free
      ￿ if there are PR serious offenders in prison,
        then we save l*PR offenses per year
      ￿ the net observed offenses per year is:
            ￿   OF = l*N - l*PR = l(N -AD*S)
Llad Phillips                                   18
                       Serious Offenders, N


                           Prisoners, PR


          Population




Llad Phillips                                 19
                             Serious Offenders, N


                                 Prisoners, PR


          Population




  If the Serious Offender Population grows faster than the P
  Population then crime gets worse
Llad Phillips                                       20
      Likelihood of Going to Prison in a Lifetime
                                                    For
                                                    Newborn
                                                          1/4


                                                      1/6
                                                      1/10

                                                     1/23

   Source:
Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U. S. Population, 1974-01
      Llad Phillips                                        21
                Social Control



                      In

                 Formerly
                 In 10%

                   Population




Llad Phillips                    22
Llad Phillips   23
Social Control of Citizenry
   ￿ Civil        law and authority
         ￿ First line of defense: moral compliance and good
           citizenship
         ￿ Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of
           punishment)
         ￿ Third line of defense: detention

   ￿ Martial           law and authority
         ￿ Fourth       line of defense: National Guard and the
                Army



Llad Phillips                                                24
  100 %


Percent
Control                                            Riot
    99%



     98%
                                                  Martial
                    Civil Law                     Law

              Moral      Deterrence   Detention   National Guard
              Compliance
    Llad Phillips                                           25
    Is Criminal Justice Just?




Llad Phillips                   26
Questions About Crime
￿ Are           there Inequities by Income class?
      ￿ for      victims?
￿ Are           there ethnic or racial injustices?
      ￿ for victims?
      ￿ for offenders?




Llad Phillips                                        27
US Family Income, 1994




Source: US Statistical Abstract
Why is Income Distributed So
Unevenly?
￿ Labor  Income is Unevenly Distributed
￿ Part-time work
      ￿ less than 50 weeks per year
      ￿ less than 36 hours per week




Llad Phillips                         30
Victimization Rates by Income
Class




 Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice, Second edition
 Census Tracts in Towns in the Boston Area
                                    Housing Value

Crime




                                      % Zoned for
                                      Lots > 25,000 Sq. Ft.
Public Goods and Private
Goods
￿ Private   Goods
  ￿ consumption      uses them up
     ￿ what   you eat is not available to nourish others
￿ Public   Goods
  ￿ consumption      does not use them up
     ￿ national defense
     ￿ safe streets

     ￿ educated citizenry
 How Much Government Should There Be?
 What is the right mix of public goods and private goods?


Private         Too Few Public Goods
Goods
                        Optimal Mix
                               Slope of the
                               Production PossibilityFrontier:
                               Marginal Cost of Public Goods
                               ÷ Marginal Cost of Private Goods




                         Public Good
                         s
The Family and Delinquency




Llad Phillips                37
The Family and Delinquency
￿ What  is the role of the family in causing
  or preventing delinquency?
￿ How important is the family in
  considering possible causes of
  delinquency?




Llad Phillips                            38
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, e
James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
                         If the father is sufficiently
Daughter’s               altruistic, then the daughter’s
Income                   enlightened self-interest is to
                         prefer point A, and she can be
                 A       induced to behave in a
                         cooperative way, allowing poin
                         J that leads to point A
             R


                                 J




                     Father’s Income
Llad Phillips   41
Where does Criminal Justice
go from here?
￿ California
      ￿ Strong  economy leads to lower property
        crime rates
      ￿ Higher imprisonment rates lead to lower
        rates of violent crime
￿ National       Policy
      ￿ Drug treatment programs
      ￿ Eisenhower Report(1999): More Prevention

Llad Phillips                                 42
 Rearrest rates for CA prison
 Inmates rise to 67% within
 3 years after release.




Llad Phillips                   43

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:4
posted:3/23/2014
language:English
pages:43