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									ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR ACCOMMODATING THE BAY AREA’S FUTURE AVIATION DEMAND
Traffic Redistribution Scenario
Prepared for: Prepared for:

Regional Airport Planning Committee
Association of Bay Area Governments Bay Conservation Development Commission

DRAFT
November 20, 2009

Critical Study Questions

What Are the Capacity Limits of the Primary Bay Area Airports? When Are These Limits Likely to Be Reached? What Strategies Offer the Greatest Potential to Allow the Region to Efficiently Accommodate Future Aviation Demand?
– Redistribution of Traffic Between the Primary Airports – Secondary Airports (Out-of-Region) – Demand Management – New ATC Technologies – High Speed Rail – GA Reliever Airports

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Purpose for Redistribution Scenario
If New ATC and/or Demand Management Cannot Successfully Mitigate the High Levels of Demand and Delay Forecasted for SFO in 2035, it is Likely that Some Traffic Would Shift to Other Primary Airports Traffic Most Likely to Shift Would be Domestic O&D Passengers
Forecast SFO Traffic Mix 2035
Domestic Connecting 12%

7.7.M

Domestic O&D 47%

30.0M 26.7M
Int'l Psgrs /1 41%

/1 Includes domestic to international connecting passengers /1 Includes domestic to international connecting passengers

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Based on the Unconstrained Forecasts, Average SFO Delays will Exceed 20 Minutes by 2035

SFO Average Delays
Minutes

30 25 20 15

Avg. Delays 12 min 15 min 2035

Midpoint 10 5 2007 0 350 400 450
Annual Operations (000)

2020

500

550

Notes: “Midpoint” = the average of 2020 and 2035 operations Notes: “Midpoint” = the average of 2020 and 2035 operations

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The Build-Up of Delays at SFO Will Encourage a Shift of Demand to OAK and SJC

Excessive Delays at SFO will Produce Added Costs to Airlines and Passengers Heavy Congestion and Delays at SFO will Create Incentives for Airlines and Passengers to Make Greater Use of Available Capacity at OAK and SJC The Degree of Traffic Redistribution will Depend on Airline Decisions to Expand Services at Competitive Fares at OAK and SJC However, Airline Decisions are Based on Expected Profitability— Not on Best Accommodating Future Bay Area Aviation Demand

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When SFO was Heavily Delayed in the 1990’s, OAK and SJC Increased Their Shares of Bay Area Regional Demand

Throughout the 1990’s, SFO was One of the Most Heavily Delayed Airports in the U.S. These Delays Contributed to Service Expansion and Increased Traffic Shares at OAK and SJC
– OAK Increased its Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers from 20% in the Late 1990’s Up to a Peak of 33% from 2003 to 2006 – SJC Share Gains were Less Pronounced (from approx. 22% up to 26% in 2002)

The Share Gains Experienced at OAK and SJC Occurred Gradually, and Lagged the Onset of Serious SFO Delays by Several Years

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However, the Share Gains Experienced at OAK and SJC Have Been Completely Eroded by Recent Developments
Primary Airport Shares of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers Primary Airport Shares of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers CY 1990 – CY 2009 CY 1990 – CY 2009
70% 60% 50% 40%
Year Share of Bay Area Dom O&D Psgrs OAK SFO SJC 17.2% 18.4% 19.1% 20.9% 21.4% 23.1% 21.5% 20.0% 20.1% 20.5% 21.1% 25.6% 30.9% 33.4% 32.6% 32.8% 32.9% 31.7% 26.3% 23.1% 65.6% 65.2% 64.3% 61.2% 58.3% 55.7% 56.1% 57.5% 57.0% 55.5% 53.4% 46.6% 43.4% 41.6% 43.3% 43.4% 43.2% 45.1% 51.2% 56.5% 17.1% 16.4% 16.6% 17.9% 20.3% 21.2% 22.3% 22.5% 23.0% 24.1% 25.5% 27.8% 25.7% 25.0% 24.1% 23.8% 24.0% 23.2% 22.5% 20.4% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

SFO

30% 20% 10% 0%

OAK SJC

19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 0 20 8 09 E
Source: ACI-NA Airport Traffic Statistics; Airport Data

The 2007 Entry of Southwest Airlines, Virgin America and JetBlue Produced a Major Increase in SFO’s Share of Bay Area Domestic Passengers
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We Expect that a Future Redistribution of Bay Area Traffic will Largely Mirror What has Occurred in the Past
Excessive Congestion and Delays at SFO will Lead to Slowing of Growth Airlines and Passengers will Find OAK and SJC Relatively More Attractive, Leading to Increases in Domestic Services and Traffic Shares at Both Airports Airline Decisions which will Drive Redistribution between the Primary Airports Cannot Be Predicted with Any Degree of Certainty For the Redistribution Scenario, We have Assumed that Both OAK and SJC Return to Their Historic Peak Shares of Bay Area Domestic Traffic
– OAK Peak Historic Share: 33% – SJC Peak Historic Share: 26%/1

/1 Excludes CY2001 due to the impacts of 9-11. 7

We Expect Redistribution to Produce a Meaningful Shift in Airport Utilization by Bay Area Domestic Passengers

SFO Share of Bay Area SFO Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers Domestic O&D Passengers
60%

OAK Share of Bay Area OAK Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers Domestic O&D Passengers
40%

SJC Share of Bay Area SJC Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers Domestic O&D Passengers
30%

56.5% 47.2% 41.0%

33.0% 29.6%

26.0% 23.2% 20.4%
20%

40%

23.1%
20%

20%

10%

0%

0%

0%

2009E

2035 Unconstr.

2035 w/ Redistr.

2009E

2035 Unconstr.

2035 w/ Redistr.

2009E

2035 Unconstr.

2035 w/ Redistr.

Source: SH&E Analysis 8

The Redistribution Scenario Reduces SFO Passenger Demand from 64M to 60M in 2035, Shifting Over 4 Million Passengers to OAK and SJC

Millions of Passengers
70 60 64.4 60.0

Forecast Airport Passengers Forecast Airport Passengers 2035 2035

Unconstrained Forecast

With Redistribution 50 40 30 20.7 20 10 0

23.1 16.3 18.2

SFO

OAK

SJC

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After Redistribution, SFO’s Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D and Total Passengers will Decline
2035 Airport Passengers Shares 2035 Airport Passengers Shares Unconstrained Forecast vs. Redistribution Scenario Unconstrained Forecast vs. Redistribution Scenario
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30% 23% 26% 20% 23% 16% 18%

Unconstrained Forecast With Redistribution 47% 41% 33%

64% 59%

OAK

SFO

SJC

OAK

SFO
Total Passengers

SJC

Domestic Local Passengers

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APPENDIX

SFO Draws Domestic Passengers From Across the Bay Area Region

Pct. of SFO Domestic O&D Passengers by Ground Origin 2006
55% 12% 11% 8%

San San Francisco Francisco

Oakland

San Jose

Source: MTC Airport Passenger Surveys 12

The Majority of OAK’s 2006 Domestic Passengers Originated From the East Bay Region

Pct. of OAK Domestic O&D Passengers by Ground Origin 2006
54% 21% 15%

Oakland Oakland
San Francisco San Jose

Source: MTC Airport Passenger Surveys 13

SJC Draws Passengers Predominantly From the Southern Portions of the Bay Area and Surrounding External Zones

Pct. of SJC Domestic O&D Passengers by Ground Origin 2006
40% 32% 18% Oakland San Francisco

San Jose San Jose

Source: MTC Airport Passenger Surveys 14


								
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