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Looking at production statistics and population figures in isolation does not provide us with a clear view of where we have come from and where we are likely to end up in a world that is being challenged to feed itself adequately.
Digital Re-print - January | February 2014 133.6kg/capita - Setting a global benchmark for feed production Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom. All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies, the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published. ©Copyright 2014 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872 www.gfmt.co.uk F 40 | January - February 2014 Grain &Feed millinG technoloGy 133.6kg/capita Setting a global benchmark for feed production by Roger Gilbert, publisher of GFMT magazine Roger Gilbert was invited to participate on the recent why grams/day consumption of ‘meat’ products (in protein and fat round of VIV Roadshows, speaking in Abuja, Nigeria at terms) has largely stagnated in Nigeria since 1997. the beginning of January 2014 and more recently at By comparison world food supply has also shown a steady the IPPE’s VIV Pig Production Summit USA. His topic upward trend, increasing by almost 1/5th over a 20 year period. was a: ‘The role of a robust compound feed to meet However, in contrast to that, world per capita consumption has fallen from a high of 151kg on average to 146.5kg. No much you the needs of a growing world population’ and based might think in terms of total weight, but the additional population on survey results from Alltech’s feed survey showing over that period is having an impact and we are likely to see this world production in 2013 at 963 million tonnes. downward trend continue. And based on consumption per person, the supply of protein in our diets is showing a steady decline as well. On average we are consuming a gram less protein per person per day. Again not significant L ooking at production statistics and population figures in you might think, but highlights an ongoing tend that can only accelerate. isolation does not provide us with a clear view of where Fat consumption on the other hand remains relatively unchanged, we have come from and where we are likely to end up in at between 5.9-6g/head per day. Possibly reflecting the tremendous a world that is being challenged to feed itself adequately. increase in palm production throughout Asia over recent decades. Static figures do not encourage us to address issues that are Population pyramids looming. I want to show here how developing country populations are I’m of the view that information is knowledge, knowledge brings going to increase – again based on figures from the US Census responsibility, and together provides us with influence and power Bureau. I have compared them to the country I live in – the UK - for to bring about change. If we ‘know’ we have a responsibility to ‘act’. comparison. You’ll notice that Nigeria has a wider population base Nigeria represents one of the few countries on the planet that compared to the UK (which given the total difference in numbers, is adding substantially and significantly to its population base. In the is only natural). Also, the UK shows a ‘bulge’ in the 40-60 year olds next decade it is projected by the US Census Bureau to add 50 mil- groups due in part to the baby boomers following the Second World lion people to its current 177 million population base and by 2050 War. What is also evident is the increased number of people living challenge the USA for the third most populated country at just under longer in the UK than their counterparts in Nigeria. 300 million people! It’s an issue that our industry, and the food indus- As we move ahead through time – to 2030 - the Nigerian try in general – both in Nigeria and globally - will have to address. population base has widened by an additional 8-10 million births in Nigeria is just one example, an extreme one, of what is likely to the 0-4 age group (with a total of 38 million) while the shape of the happen in developing countries over the next 35 years. pyramid remains the same; and with no more people living longer. In However, there is good news for Africa. From the FAO, and the UK on the other hand the population base has remained largely surveying the first 12 years of the 21st century, Africa IS increasing unchanged while even more people are living longer. its production of foodstuffs faster than anywhere else on the planet. Finally, by 2050, the year in which it’s calculated the world will The area being harvest is increasing at twice the rate of that of any reach 9.5 billion people on the planet, and before stabalising at other region while two regions – the Americas and Europe – show around 10 billion for the remainder of the century, Nigeria, while no increase in area harvested at all. maintaining its pyramid shape, will once more see its population base Product quality is also improving at the fastest rate in this region while yield increases are matching those being achieved in the America and Asia. While world food production growth is increas- ing on average at 2.1 percent per year, Africa is moving ahead at 3.5 percent – and Nigeria is in amongst the countries achieve these higher-than- average increases. Food consumption per capita based on an index of 2004-06, shows Africa achieving the fast- est and most sustained growth rising from 78kg/ head to 117kg/head since 1992. As we are addressing compound feed produc- tion it is interesting to see what is happening to the consumption of meat and eggs. Total food supply has doubled in that period to 1.4 million tonnes and per capita consumption of meat up from 7.4kg/ head to almost 9kg/head. That in fact, highlights the next point I wish to make. How can ‘meat’ supply double yet per head consumption rise by less than 20%? The answer is straightforward – population increase. And that is 41 | January - February 2014 Grain &Feed millinG technoloGy F Aquaculture In fact, the next few slides will focus on aquaculture as I believe that based on the information coming to hand, this ORE, species is likely to become a major food source for us in the GA L IN AN D 2 future. Aquaculture is already making a growing and significant B IA contribution to our planet’s protein supplies. GLOBAL MILLING CONFERENCE Salmon will continue to lead the way with a rapid increase rate of 4.6 percent while catfish and poultry follow. Pork and nd beef are lower down at 1% and under. Fish is out-performing beef production. Over the past 50 23 -24 April 2014 years it has managed to keep pace with the uptake of meat thanks to the development of aquaculture. Over the past 30 years, while seafood production has increased per capita consumption has risen to 19kg/head (compare to 59kg of beef consumption per head of popula- tion in China in 2009). And looking ahead, FAO projects that in the run-up to 2050 we will experience a boom in production, seeing total seafood supplies increase by more than a third. India FAO project that the feed requirement of aquaculture will increase at a rate of over six percent per annum up until 2020 to 11 percent of all feed supplies, over land-based protein supplies of a 2.2 percent annual increase for the same period. the world’s second largest market expand, this time adding almost 70 million people in one-to-four year olds! Again the UK is largely unchanged with a static popula- tion base. These are in general the two key trends that differenciate CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION between today’s developed countries and those ‘developing’. Global feed production I’m basing my comments on the latest Alltech Survey 2013 Food & feed security which provides output figures up until December 2013: the most “Feeding 9 billion by 2050” comprehensive available for our industry worldwide and which we should be grateful to have. Milling developments The world currently manufacturers annually just under a billion metric tonnes of compounded or formulated animal feed. These “Minimising energy usage in the mill” feed statistics were collected by 600 Alltech staff from 130 coun- tries involving 28,196 feedmills. Note: Numbers for less developed Storage & transportation countries may be less accurate; but that will have little influence on “Quality in quality out” overall dataset. The top 10 countries in descending order of output are: China, USA, New technologies Brazil, Mexico, Spain, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France which account for 611 million tonnes or two-thirds of world production. “What’s new in feed and food milling?” Poultry, which includes layers, broilers, turkeys and others, account for 444.4 million tonnes of feeds while pigs account for Feed & food heat treatments 242.8 million tonnes and ruminants – dairy, beef, calves and others “Maintaining hygienic standards” – 195.6 million tonnes. Key survey findings include: The way ahead • China leading producer at 189 million tons “Adopting quality control programs & • Asia leading overall region with 348 million • US and Brazil 2nd and 3rd largest countries regulations” • Africa fastest growing region; up 7% • Middle East has largest feed mills by annual production Other key findings: • Poultry still the leading species • 46% of all feed is poultry feed, 61% of that is for broilers • 444.4 million tons fed to poultry worldwide • Aqua experienced fastest growth up 17% over 2012 – assocom-india.com/gmc exceeded 40 million tons. • Pig feed production increased 11% (esp. China) • Pet food up slightly, Equine up 14% 23-24 April 2014 • Ruminant feed production declined 20% • Decline in both Beef and Dairy Mövenpick Hotel & Spa • Able to switch to forages when grain prices high Bangalore, India The 16 important countries in terms of feed production are Jointly organised by Assocom ranked in the bar chart above because I want to make the point that and Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine countries producing more feed do not necessarily have more feed- mills. In fact, this chart is ranked by countries on the left with the least F 42 | January - February 2014 &Feed millinG technoloGy Grain 43 | January - February 2014 Grain &Feed millinG technoloGy F As FAO and other UN organisations, including their associated NGOs, demonstrate safe and affordable food supply is not the responsibility of those with commercial interests alone to fulfill; there is a need for governments to assume responsibility in ensuring food is produced in volumes that are safe and affordable for all. Here, I show Nigeria’s total population in 2014 alongside the volume in tonnes of its compound feed production (just under 2 million tonnes). I’ve compared that to other countries producing approximately two million tonnes of compound feed and show here the populations those countries feed. If my proposal has any substance, then the people of Bosnia will be enjoying a healthy diet of livestock and fish products than their counterparts in Sweden or Czech Republic. Or they are enjoying healthier incomes from export sales. When comparing Nigeria’s 177 million population of today with similarly populated countries we can compare their compound feed Industry now valued at US$500 billion—higher than previous estimate of US$350 billion a 2.2 percent annual increase for the same period production; it is quickly evident that Nigeria is faring no better than Bangladesh and is a long way behind a country like Brazil. For every Nigerian to enjoy the ‘world average’ supply of animal proteins based on compound feed, then the Nigerian Feed Industry has to rise to the challenge and lift production from 1.9 million tonnes to 23.6 million tonnes annually: over a 10-fold on what it is producing now. Give our industry a chance I believe that scientifically-formulated compound feeds offer the solution to this world feeding itself adequately by 2050. We not only have to meet the future needs of humans arriving on the planet, but we also have to meet the needs of those wanting to improve their diets as they become more economically advanced. On top of that we have to address the one billion people FAO tells feed mills to the most on the right. And what is really interesting is that us are receiving less food than is required to sustain themselves. That the average production from feedmills is not too dissimilar between figure has not been diminishing, but increasing in recent years. countries and between regions at 30,000-60,000 tonnes per year. You may not believe that growing livestock and fish for protein is the way forward however, growing and consuming cereals and crops A developing country’s prospects has not proven to be the complete answer either. Livestock and Nigeria ranks 54 out of the 133 countries surveyed, in terms of fish have many advantages in the production of protein for human total formulated feed production at 1.9 million tonnes (this does not consumption over grains and cereals (which we cannot go into here) include home-produced feeds or feeding straights or unformulated and we should give this industry a chance to prove itself as it offers feeds). I’d like to extrapolate some figures from the information huge utilization and conversion efficiencies yet to be fully realized. presented and raise a question or two for you to ponder. Unless we measure where we are we cannot set meaningful 1) What are the populations of other countries producing a similar ‘benchmarks’ for ourselves or our industry for the future. amount of feed to Nigeria? Alltech’s figures are the first comprehensive figures the industry 2) How much feed is being produced by those countries with has on just how much compounded feed is being produced and similar populations? used. Based on these figures and our current world population, I put The reason I ask these questions is that I believe there is a correla- it to you that each country must set an annual benchmark that sees tion between the volume of compound feed produced in a country every citizen having access to food that is based on 133.6kg/head of and the ability of that country to feed its population adequately. scientifically-formulated compound feed. And I have identified a ‘benchmark’ that I believe all countries After all, that’s the world average and every country should be need to exceed in order to claim they are providing the nutritional striving to be equal to or rise above the average in terms of supplying requirements for their populations. safe and affordable food to its people. 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