133.6kg/capita - Setting a global benchmark for feed production by GFMT

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									                   Digital Re-print -
               January | February 2014
              133.6kg/capita - Setting a global
              benchmark for feed production

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F    40 | January - February 2014                                                                                Grain &Feed millinG technoloGy


                                             133.6kg/capita
                                              Setting a global benchmark for
                                              feed production
                                                                               by Roger Gilbert, publisher of GFMT magazine

    Roger Gilbert was invited to participate on the recent                     why grams/day consumption of ‘meat’ products (in protein and fat
    round of VIV Roadshows, speaking in Abuja, Nigeria at                      terms) has largely stagnated in Nigeria since 1997.
    the beginning of January 2014 and more recently at                             By comparison world food supply has also shown a steady
    the IPPE’s VIV Pig Production Summit USA. His topic                        upward trend, increasing by almost 1/5th over a 20 year period.
    was a: ‘The role of a robust compound feed to meet                             However, in contrast to that, world per capita consumption has
                                                                               fallen from a high of 151kg on average to 146.5kg. No much you
    the needs of a growing world population’ and based
                                                                               might think in terms of total weight, but the additional population
    on survey results from Alltech’s feed survey showing
                                                                               over that period is having an impact and we are likely to see this
    world production in 2013 at 963 million tonnes.                            downward trend continue.
                                                                                   And based on consumption per person, the supply of protein
                                                                               in our diets is showing a steady decline as well. On average we are
                                                                               consuming a gram less protein per person per day. Again not significant


    L
        ooking at production statistics and population figures in              you might think, but highlights an ongoing tend that can only accelerate.
        isolation does not provide us with a clear view of where                   Fat consumption on the other hand remains relatively unchanged,
        we have come from and where we are likely to end up in                 at between 5.9-6g/head per day. Possibly reflecting the tremendous
    a world that is being challenged to feed itself adequately.                increase in palm production throughout Asia over recent decades.

        Static figures do not encourage us to address issues that are          Population pyramids
    looming.                                                                       I want to show here how developing country populations are
        I’m of the view that information is knowledge, knowledge brings        going to increase – again based on figures from the US Census
    responsibility, and together provides us with influence and power          Bureau. I have compared them to the country I live in – the UK - for
    to bring about change. If we ‘know’ we have a responsibility to ‘act’.     comparison. You’ll notice that Nigeria has a wider population base
        Nigeria represents one of the few countries on the planet that         compared to the UK (which given the total difference in numbers,
    is adding substantially and significantly to its population base. In the   is only natural). Also, the UK shows a ‘bulge’ in the 40-60 year olds
    next decade it is projected by the US Census Bureau to add 50 mil-         groups due in part to the baby boomers following the Second World
    lion people to its current 177 million population base and by 2050         War. What is also evident is the increased number of people living
    challenge the USA for the third most populated country at just under       longer in the UK than their counterparts in Nigeria.
    300 million people! It’s an issue that our industry, and the food indus-       As we move ahead through time – to 2030 - the Nigerian
    try in general – both in Nigeria and globally - will have to address.      population base has widened by an additional 8-10 million births in
        Nigeria is just one example, an extreme one, of what is likely to      the 0-4 age group (with a total of 38 million) while the shape of the
    happen in developing countries over the next 35 years.                     pyramid remains the same; and with no more people living longer. In
        However, there is good news for Africa. From the FAO, and              the UK on the other hand the population base has remained largely
    surveying the first 12 years of the 21st century, Africa IS increasing     unchanged while even more people are living longer.
    its production of foodstuffs faster than anywhere else on the planet.          Finally, by 2050, the year in which it’s calculated the world will
    The area being harvest is increasing at twice the rate of that of any      reach 9.5 billion people on the planet, and before stabalising at
    other region while two regions – the Americas and Europe – show            around 10 billion for the remainder of the century, Nigeria, while
    no increase in area harvested at all.                                      maintaining its pyramid shape, will once more see its population base
        Product quality is also improving at the fastest rate
    in this region while yield increases are matching those
    being achieved in the America and Asia.
        While world food production growth is increas-
    ing on average at 2.1 percent per year, Africa is
    moving ahead at 3.5 percent – and Nigeria is in
    amongst the countries achieve these higher-than-
    average increases.
        Food consumption per capita based on an
    index of 2004-06, shows Africa achieving the fast-
    est and most sustained growth rising from 78kg/
    head to 117kg/head since 1992.
        As we are addressing compound feed produc-
    tion it is interesting to see what is happening to the
    consumption of meat and eggs. Total food supply
    has doubled in that period to 1.4 million tonnes
    and per capita consumption of meat up from 7.4kg/
    head to almost 9kg/head.
        That in fact, highlights the next point I wish to
    make. How can ‘meat’ supply double yet per head
    consumption rise by less than 20%? The answer is
    straightforward – population increase. And that is
 41 | January - February 2014                                                                           Grain   &Feed millinG technoloGy                F

  Aquaculture
  In fact, the next few slides will focus on aquaculture as I
  believe that based on the information coming to hand, this
                                                                                                                                      ORE,
  species is likely to become a major food source for us in the                                                                GA L          IN
                                                                                                                          AN                   D




                                                                                                                                                   2
  future. Aquaculture is already making a growing and significant




                                                                                                                       B




                                                                                                                                              IA
  contribution to our planet’s protein supplies.
                                                                               GLOBAL MILLING
                                                                               CONFERENCE
     Salmon will continue to lead the way with a rapid increase
  rate of 4.6 percent while catfish and poultry follow. Pork and
                                                                                                                                                   nd
  beef are lower down at 1% and under.
     Fish is out-performing beef production. Over the past 50                                                             23
                                                                                                                               -24 April 2014
  years it has managed to keep pace with the uptake of meat
  thanks to the development of aquaculture.
     Over the past 30 years, while seafood production has
  increased per capita consumption has risen to 19kg/head
  (compare to 59kg of beef consumption per head of popula-
  tion in China in 2009).
     And looking ahead, FAO projects that in the run-up to
  2050 we will experience a boom in production, seeing total
  seafood supplies increase by more than a third.




                                                                               India
     FAO project that the feed requirement of aquaculture will
  increase at a rate of over six percent per annum up until 2020
  to 11 percent of all feed supplies, over land-based protein
  supplies of a 2.2 percent annual increase for the same period.
                                                                                                                the world’s second
                                                                                                                largest market
expand, this time adding almost 70 million people in one-to-four
year olds! Again the UK is largely unchanged with a static popula-
tion base.
   These are in general the two key trends that differenciate
                                                                               CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
between today’s developed countries and those ‘developing’.

Global feed production
    I’m basing my comments on the latest Alltech Survey 2013                        Food & feed security
which provides output figures up until December 2013: the most
                                                                                    “Feeding 9 billion by 2050”
comprehensive available for our industry worldwide and which we
should be grateful to have.
                                                                                    Milling developments
    The world currently manufacturers annually just under a billion
metric tonnes of compounded or formulated animal feed. These                        “Minimising energy usage in the mill”
feed statistics were collected by 600 Alltech staff from 130 coun-
tries involving 28,196 feedmills. Note: Numbers for less developed                  Storage & transportation
countries may be less accurate; but that will have little influence on              “Quality in quality out”
overall dataset.
    The top 10 countries in descending order of output are: China, USA,             New technologies
Brazil, Mexico, Spain, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France which
account for 611 million tonnes or two-thirds of world production.                   “What’s new in feed and food milling?”
    Poultry, which includes layers, broilers, turkeys and others,
account for 444.4 million tonnes of feeds while pigs account for                     Feed & food heat treatments
242.8 million tonnes and ruminants – dairy, beef, calves and others                 “Maintaining hygienic standards”
– 195.6 million tonnes.
    Key survey findings include:                                                    The way ahead
  • China leading producer at 189 million tons
                                                                                    “Adopting quality control programs &
  • Asia leading overall region with 348 million
  • US and Brazil 2nd and 3rd largest countries                                     regulations”
  • Africa fastest growing region; up 7%
  • Middle East has largest feed mills by annual production
  Other key findings:
  • Poultry still the leading species
  • 46% of all feed is poultry feed, 61% of that is for broilers
  • 444.4 million tons fed to poultry worldwide
  • Aqua experienced fastest growth up 17% over 2012 –                          assocom-india.com/gmc
     exceeded 40 million tons.
  • Pig feed production increased 11% (esp. China)
  • Pet food up slightly, Equine up 14%                                                     23-24 April 2014
  • Ruminant feed production declined 20%
  • Decline in both Beef and Dairy
                                                                               Mövenpick Hotel & Spa
  • Able to switch to forages when grain prices high                                 Bangalore, India
    The 16 important countries in terms of feed production are
                                                                                                Jointly organised by Assocom
ranked in the bar chart above because I want to make the point that            and Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine
countries producing more feed do not necessarily have more feed-
mills. In fact, this chart is ranked by countries on the left with the least
F   42 | January - February 2014       &Feed millinG technoloGy
                                   Grain
  43 | January - February 2014                                                                                                                                                                         Grain   &Feed millinG technoloGy   F
                                                                                                                                                              As FAO and other UN organisations, including their associated
                                                                                                                                                          NGOs, demonstrate safe and affordable food supply is not the
                                                                                                                                                          responsibility of those with commercial interests alone to fulfill; there
                                                                                                                                                          is a need for governments to assume responsibility in ensuring food
                                                                                                                                                          is produced in volumes that are safe and affordable for all.
                                                                                                                                                              Here, I show Nigeria’s total population in 2014 alongside the
                                                                                                                                                          volume in tonnes of its compound feed production (just under 2
                                                                                                                                                          million tonnes). I’ve compared that to other countries producing
                                                                                                                                                          approximately two million tonnes of compound feed and show here
                                                                                                                                                          the populations those countries feed.
                                                                                                                                                              If my proposal has any substance, then the people of Bosnia will
                                                                                                                                                          be enjoying a healthy diet of livestock and fish products than their
                                                                                                                                                          counterparts in Sweden or Czech Republic. Or they are enjoying
                                                                                                                                                          healthier incomes from export sales.
                                                                                                                                                              When comparing Nigeria’s 177 million population of today with
                                                                                                                                                          similarly populated countries we can compare their compound feed

                                                                                                                                                            Industry now valued at US$500 billion—higher than previous estimate
                                                                                                                                                            of US$350 billion a 2.2 percent annual increase for the same period


                                                                                                                                                          production; it is quickly evident that Nigeria is faring no better than
                                                                                                                                                          Bangladesh and is a long way behind a country like Brazil.
                                                                                                                                                             For every Nigerian to enjoy the ‘world average’ supply of animal
                                                                                                                                                          proteins based on compound feed, then the Nigerian Feed Industry has
                                                                                                                                                          to rise to the challenge and lift production from 1.9 million tonnes to
                                                                                                                                                          23.6 million tonnes annually: over a 10-fold on what it is producing now.

                                                                                                                                                          Give our industry a chance
                                                                                                                                                               I believe that scientifically-formulated compound feeds offer the
                                                                                                                                                           solution to this world feeding itself adequately by 2050.
                                                                                                                                                               We not only have to meet the future needs of humans arriving
                                                                                                                                                           on the planet, but we also have to meet the needs of those wanting
                                                                                                                                                           to improve their diets as they become more economically advanced.
                                                                                                                                                           On top of that we have to address the one billion people FAO tells
 feed mills to the most on the right. And what is really interesting is that                                                                              us are receiving less food than is required to sustain themselves. That
 the average production from feedmills is not too dissimilar between                                                                                      figure has not been diminishing, but increasing in recent years.
 countries and between regions at 30,000-60,000 tonnes per year.                                                                                              You may not believe that growing livestock and fish for protein is
                                                                                                                                                          the way forward however, growing and consuming cereals and crops
 A developing country’s prospects                                                                                                                         has not proven to be the complete answer either. Livestock and
     Nigeria ranks 54 out of the 133 countries surveyed, in terms of                                                                                      fish have many advantages in the production of protein for human
 total formulated feed production at 1.9 million tonnes (this does not                                                                                    consumption over grains and cereals (which we cannot go into here)
 include home-produced feeds or feeding straights or unformulated                                                                                         and we should give this industry a chance to prove itself as it offers
 feeds). I’d like to extrapolate some figures from the information                                                                                        huge utilization and conversion efficiencies yet to be fully realized.
 presented and raise a question or two for you to ponder.                                                                                                     Unless we measure where we are we cannot set meaningful
   1) What are the populations of other countries producing a similar                                                                                     ‘benchmarks’ for ourselves or our industry for the future.
      amount of feed to Nigeria?                                                                                                                              Alltech’s figures are the first comprehensive figures the industry
   2) How much feed is being produced by those countries with                                                                                             has on just how much compounded feed is being produced and
      similar populations?                                                                                                                                used. Based on these figures and our current world population, I put
     The reason I ask these questions is that I believe there is a correla-                                                                               it to you that each country must set an annual benchmark that sees
 tion between the volume of compound feed produced in a country                                                                                           every citizen having access to food that is based on 133.6kg/head of
 and the ability of that country to feed its population adequately.                                                                                       scientifically-formulated compound feed.
     And I have identified a ‘benchmark’ that I believe all countries                                                                                         After all, that’s the world average and every country should be
 need to exceed in order to claim they are providing the nutritional                                                                                      striving to be equal to or rise above the average in terms of supplying
 requirements for their populations.                                                                                                                      safe and affordable food to its people.




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