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Hard Choices - Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget.pptx

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					           Hard Choices:
Equipping an Army for a New Strategy
       with a Smaller Budget




                   Tony Cucolo
             Major General, US Army
                    21 MAR 12



                                       1
                                          The G-8’s Role
                   Where I’m from: “Army G-8”

                         Deputy Chief of Staff G-8

• Integrates staffs and commands to provide fully equipped forces as directed
• Manage Army reset for the current and next fight
• Assess the Army’s next essential need
• Develops and defends the “Army Program”




How does the         What size Army?     Translate            Develop the
Army support the     What                requirements to      Army resourcing
defense              capabilities?       solutions            plan
Strategy?

   Quadrennial           Center for       Force Development   Program Analysis and
  Defense Review       Army Analysis                               Evaluation




                                                                                     3
                                         The FD’s Role
               What I do: “Force Development”


Equipment          Translate      Plan,            Balance,
Modernization      requirements   synchronize,     prioritize
Strategy           into           and integrate    requirements
                   programs       equipping        against
                                  requirements     resources
                                  for
                                  deployed units




   Joint and         Materiel        Integration    Resourcing
    Futures


                                                                  4
   New Defense Strategic Guidance

            •   Transition from today’s wars to preparing for future
                challenges
            •   Rebalance to Asia-Pacific, while remaining vigilant in
                Middle East
            •   Maintain our Article 5 commitments to NATO
            •   Strengthening alliances/partnerships across all regions
            •   10 primary missions of the US Armed Forces; 4 for
                sizing:
                 ü Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare
                 ü Deter and Defeat Aggression
                 “deterring and defeating aggression by an opportunistic
                 adversary in one region even when our forces are committed
                             to a large-scale operation elsewhere”
                 ü Maintain a Safe, Secure, and Effective Nuclear
                     Deterrent
                 ü Defend the Homeland and Provide Support to Civil
                     Authorities
            •   Maintain a ready and capable force, even as we reduce
                our overall capacity
            •   Ability to surge and regenerate (reversibility)
            •   Keep faith with troops, families, and veterans

5 Jan 12
                                                                              4
                     “Sizing” Guidance

•   Sizing guidance:
    ü Deter and Defeat Aggression: One large-scale combined arms
        campaign with follow-on small-scale stability/transition
        operations for limited period using standing forces (or sustained
        with partial mobilization), and defeat aggression by an
        opportunistic adversary in another region, simultaneously.
    ü Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare: Sustain capabilities,
        capacity, and institutional expertise for direct action and security
        force assistance.
    ü Defend the Homeland: Heightened defense posture in/around
        the United States (including missile defense) and support to
        civil authorities for one large-scale terrorist attack or natural
        disaster or complex catastrophe.
    ü Specifics:
       ► Reduce AC end strength to 490K by end of FY 17
       ► Reduce at least 8 AC BCTs, including 2 ABCTs in Europe
                                                                               5
                      Hybrid Strategies
         Three components of Hybrid Threats
         Ø Nation States or Proxies with a range of capabilities
         Ø Desire to preclude U.S. from executing its “way of war”
         Ø Capabilities that create a “Strategic Lever”… specifically designed
           to impact U.S. actions

• Recognize conventional
  confrontation with the US is a                     Proxies
  losing proposition
• Focus on US vulnerabilities
                                 Terrorist/Criminal                  Strategic
• Utilize home terrain                               HYBRID
  advantages                          activity                      Capabilities
                                                    STRATEGY
• Nontraditional employment of
  all possible capabilities
• End State:
  üfrustrate US operations
  üensure survival of key                                        Irregular
                                         Conventional
   capabilities
                                    Structure and Capability    Operations
  üturn conflict into protracted
   war of attrition

       U.S. is likely to face a hybrid strategy into the foreseeable future
                                                                                   6
                Hybrid Threat Concept
                                           • Anti-access and area denial
                         Joint Operational campaigns … strategic thru tactical
                         Access Concept      levels
        CONUS                              • Engage at small unit level to obtain
                             AirSea          overmatch
                             Battle        • Use violence, intimidation and
                Area                         coercion against the population
 Intermediate   Denial     Gaining &       • WMD capable… but still seeking
                          Maintaining        nuclear
Staging Base                Access
                  Hybrid                   • Avoid detection and targeting by
           ss




                 Threats                     operating among the people
       Acce




                                           • Slow down or halt our momentum
                                             using anti-tank missiles, IEDs, air
                                             defense and SOF
     Anti




                                           • Increased use of robotics and
                                             unmanned aerial systems
                                           • Employ electronic warfare to
                                             counter US precision
                                           • Conduct sophisticated information
                                             campaigns designed to erode US
                                             will over time

                                                                               7
        A Changed View: Range of Military Operations
                                                                                                                          With
Formerly, a                               (…but                                                                          hybrid
narrow lens…                          The Army        But now a specified wide lens                                    strategies
                                     still did what                                                                    presenting
                                      it was told                                           Deter &                      hybrid
               Specific Threat                                                  Stability
                                                                                            Defeat    COIN               threats
                                     outside this                     HD/DSCA
                                                                                  Ops
               Specific Location     narrow lens)           Cyber &
                                                                                                              CT/IW
                                                                                                                         CWMD
                                                             Space                                     As
                                                                           R    isk                          su
                                                                                                               me
   Specific threat, degree of certainity,                             u me                                            Ris
                                                                                                                                BPC

                                                                  Ass
                                                      FHA
      and known location drove:                                                                                          k
                                                                            Conduct Unified Land Operations
  Doctrine
  Equipment                                                                     Gain and Maintain Access
  Training
  Organizational Structure
  Force Posture                                              Nuke                Defeat Anti-Access
                                                                                 Defeat Area Denial

    Hard Complex problems, but simple
       narrative to Congress and the
      American People based off real
      potential threat to vital national
                  interests.                                            Joint Combined Arms Fire & Maneuver
     Historic Examples:                                                        As operational construct
     1920-30s Rainbow Planning
     Airmobile
                                                        No holistic Operational Construct will arise that encompasses all
     Active Defense                                     of Unified Land Ops and drive doctrine, equipment, etc., as Air
     Air Land Battle                                    Land Battle did.
     Now: Air Sea Battle                                                                                                              8
      Unified Land Operations

  Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative to gain and maintain a
  position of relative advantage in sustained land operations in
  order to create the conditions for favorable conflict resolution



Executed through…

                        Decisive Action
          Offensive     Defensive     Stability    DSCA

By means of…

                 Army Core Competencies
      Combined Arms Maneuver            Wide Area Security

Guided by…

                      Mission Command



                                                                     9
  The “specialize” or “generalize”
            question…

How adaptable is the general purpose
   formation built for unified land
            operations?




                                       10
 Our Strength is Our Ability to Adapt
                                                 Operational Adaptability
                                                   codified in doctrine
                                                     (“Unified Land
                         Security Force               Operations”)
                         Advise & Assist
                             Teams                         Advise &
                                                            Assist
                                                           Brigades
                                 Pakistan
                               Flood Relief     PRT
            Haiti Earthquake                   Support            Police Training
              Assistance                                            Programs
                                Heavy Air
                                Assaults                                     Border
                                                                            Training
                     Full Spectrum
   Hurricane          Operations                                 Support to
    Katrina                              Sustain Ops            Civil Affairs,
     Relief                              in Honduras,          PSYOPS, Info
                                            Bosnia,             Ops and CT
                                          Kosovo and            Ops in Horn
          OIF I                              Egypt                of Africa

AirLand
 Battle
             Executed by Operationally Adaptable Brigades & Battalions                 11
    Our Marching Orders Are Clear
THE ROLE OF THE ARMY

The purpose of the U.S. Army is to fight and win our Nation’s wars.
   Warfighting is our primary mission. Everything that we do should be
   grounded in this fundamental principle. Our strategic framework is
   guided by three principal and interconnected roles:

•   PREVENT: The Army prevents conflict by maintaining credibility
    based on capacity, readiness and modernization. It averts
    miscalculations by potential adversaries.

•   SHAPE: The Army shapes the environment by sustaining strong
    relationships with other Armies, building their capacity, and
    facilitating strategic access.

•   WIN: If prevention fails, the Army rapidly applies its combined arms
    capabilities to dominate the environment and win decisively.
                    Prevent, Shape, Win

          Prevent wars (deter &
            contain):
          1. Brandish land forces of sufficient

Prevent      size and fighting power to deter
             potential opponents
          2. Demonstrate ability to deploy
             forces
          3. Conduct sustained stability
             operations to prevent conflict

                                 Shape the Security Environment:
                                 1. Expand and strengthen relationships
                                    with partners around the globe

            Shape                2. Develop new relationships*
                                 3. Foster mutual understanding
                                 4. Help partners defend themselves,
                                    both internally and externally
                                 5. Open access for US forces


                                                             Win decisively and dominantly:
                                                            1. Lead Joint Task Forces; provide
                                                               connectivity to JIIM elements*
                                                            2. Employ a versatile mix of units to
                                            Win                conduct sustained land campaigns and
                                                               counter-terrorism operations
                                                            3. Conduct sustained stability operations
                                                               to conclude a conflict
                                                                                                        13
But Equip for what?




                      14
            Equip to Win.

Decisively…against the application of
          a hybrid strategy.




                                        15
 The equipping challenge: optimizing
the available resources to adequately
    equip to address the strategy.




                                        16
            Budget Guidance
              •   Cut $487 billion over next decade; $259 billion over next 5
                  years
              •   No longer size active forces to conduct large and protracted
                  stability operations while retaining expertise of a decade of
                  war
              •   Asia-Pacific region places a renewed emphasis on air and
                  naval forces
              •   Middle East ... Increasingly maritime
              •   Eliminate 2 heavy brigades in Europe
              •   Security partner of choice – innovative, low-cost, and small-
                  footprint approaches
              •   Premium on self- and rapidly-deployable forces
              •   Premium on forces present or able to rapidly reposition
              •   Reduced inter/intra-theater airlift
              •   Cut Regular Army to 490K by end of FY 17, including at least
                  8 BCTs (future design under review)
              •   Retain more mid-grade offices and NCOs
              •   Delay GCV and Army aviation modernization; terminate
                  JLENS and HMMWV upgrades; reduce JAGM
              •   Air Force
                    ü Disestablish 6 fighter squadrons (5 A-10, 1 F-16)
                    ü Divest C-27J
              •   Limited military pay raises beginning in 2015
              •   Reductions in planned civilian pay raises
              •   Increased TRICARE fees for retirees
26 Jan 12     •   Additional BRAC round(s)
                                                                                  18
The process begins with defining the
  and validating requirements…and
 since we cannot afford to resource
   every valid requirement, routine
     prioritization becomes key.




                                       19
                                 Turning Requirements into Solutions

             What the field           Affordability /            Buy / Maintain
Strategy
                needs                   Best Value                investments
              TRADOC
                                           HQDA                  Acquisition /
           Develop / Integrate
                                      Policy /                    Life Cycle
Leader                                Guidance                    Managers
 Input
                  Requirements

                                                                     - Develop
                                 Requirements        Resources       - Acquire
Lessons
Learned                                                              - Distribute
                                                                     - Upgrade
                                           Balance                   - Sustain
                                                                     - Divest
Urgent
Needs                               - Validate (G-3)
                                    - Prioritize (G-3)
                                    - Resource (G-8)
Future                              - Approve (Senior
Force                                   Leaders)
                                    - Document (G-3)

                                                                                    20
                          Current Priorities and Top 10 Programs
  Priorities
     qEmpower, Protect and Unburden the Soldier; equip the Squad to
      be the foundation of the decisive force
    qNetwork the Force
    qDeter & Defeat Hybrid Threats by Replacing, Improving and/or
     Transforming:
      - Combat Vehicles
      - Aviation
      - Light Tactical Vehicles

                          10 Critical Programs
• Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS)   • Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV)
• Warfighter Information Network –     • Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle
    Tactical (WIN-T)                        (AMPV)
• Joint Battle Command-Platforms       • Paladin Integrated Management
    (JBC-P)                                (PIM)
• Nett Warrior                         • Kiowa Warrior (KW)
• Distributed Common Ground System-    • Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV)
    Army (DCGS-A)                                                              21 21
But the challenge goes beyond
 equipment…and with great
         complexity.




                                22
                                                                   “Balanced” Spending
                                                                    The Metric of Spending Ranges

                                        BOS/Family Prog            Facilities
                         RDT&E
                                        Balance = 6 – 7%       Balance = 7 – 9%
                     Balance = 5 – 8%
                                                                                   Training & Ops

                                                                                  Balance = 11 – 14%
  Procurement

Balance = 14 – 18%
                                                                                                         Sustainment

                                                                                                       Balance = 3 – 5%




                                                                                                           Other Support

                                                                                                         Balance = 2 – 2.5%




                                                                                                          Chem Demil
                                                  Manpower
                                                                                                       Balance = 0.5 – 1%
                                              Balance = 40 – 45%
                                       StrategicWhat if we get it wrong?
                                                Expectations
When            What We Did                                     What We Expected                What We Got

Post WWII       • Precipitous drawdown                          • Strategic nuclear war with    • Conventional war in Korea
                • Army budget reduction in favor of             USSR
                Strategic Air Command

Post Korea      • Force reduction                               • Strategic nuclear war with    • Protracted counterinsurgency
                • Pentomic Division then ROAD Division          USSR preceded by                in Vietnam
                • Tactical nuclear weapons                      conventional/tactical nuclear
                                                                war in Europe as part of NATO
                                                                alliance
                                                                • Defense of Korea with the
                                                                ROK

Post Vietnam    • Steep drawdown                                • Conventional/Tactical         • End of the Cold War
                • Ended conscription…converted to the All       Nuclear War with the Warsaw     • One brief conventional fight
                Volunteer Force                                 Pact in Central Europe with     with Iraq
                • Developed new doctrine…AirLand Battle         NATO Allies
                • Modernized…Big Five Systems                   • Defense of Korea with the
                • Revolutionized training...National Training   ROK
                Centers

Post Gulf War   • Began a steep drawdown (collecting the        • Army reoriented to fight      • Enduring Stability Operations
                “Peace Dividend”)                               conventional wars with rogue    in Bosnia and Kosovo
                • Restored the honor and reputation of US       states                          •One major, unconventional
                Arms                                            • Planning construct was for    country takedown…Taliban
                • Stabilized at a lower level of budget and     two nearly simultaneous Major   Afghanistan
                manpower                                        Theater Wars (MTW’s) plus       • One major, brief conventional
                                                                lesser operations               fight with Iraq
                                                                                                • Two major
                                                                                                counterinsurgency wars…Iraq
                                                                                                and Afghanistan
                                                                                                • CT Operations in the Horn of
                                                                                                Africa


                                                                                                                                  24
 The best hedge against an uncertain
future is a well-trained, well-equipped,
  and well-disciplined land force with
             global reach.




                                           25
           Hard Choices:
Equipping an Army for a New Strategy
       with a Smaller Budget




                   Tony Cucolo
             Major General, US Army
                    21 MAR 12



                                       26
Back Up




          27
                                            Army Global Commitments
                               Army Global Commitments
                        PACOM                                NORTHCOM                      EUCOM                 CENTCOM

                                                                                           USAREUR
                     SOUTH KOREA                        CONUS SPT BASE                                       OEF- AFGHANISTAN
                                                                                       38,230 SOLDIERS
                    18,970 SOLDIERS                      2,870 SOLDIERS                                       65,810 SOLDIERS
                                                                                        (FWD Stationed)
              (Part of AC Station Overseas)                (RC Mobilized
                                                             Stateside)
                                    ALASKA                                                 BOSNIA                  IRAQ
             JAPAN                                                                      90 SOLDIERS            130 SOLDIERS
                                13,850 SOLDIERS
        2,500 SOLDIERS
                                 (FWD Stationed)
                                                                                            KFOR                   KUWAIT
                                     HAWAII
       OEF- PHILIPPINES                                                                 690 SOLDIERS          15,100 SOLDIERS
                                22,630 SOLDIERS
        480 SOLDIERS
                                 (FWD Stationed)
                                                                        SOUTHCOM                                  QATAR
                                                                                               AFRICOM        1,860 SOLDIERS

                                                                       JTF-GTMO
                                                                                               JTF- HOA             MFO
                                                                     350 SOLDIERS
                                                                                            1,220 SOLDIERS     640 SOLDIERS
                                                                         HONDURAS
                                                                         JTF-BRAVO
                                          OTHER OPERATIONS              290 SOLDIERS
                                              & EXERCISES
                                            5,200 SOLDIERS
                                                                               ARMY PERSONNEL STRENGTH
                                                                                                 RC AUTHORIZED FOR
                                                                  Component                   MOBILIZATION / ON CURRENT
                                                                                                       ORDERS




  IN NEARLY 120 COUNTRIES OVERSEAS




                                                                                                                                28
21 Feb 2012
        Allocation of Defense Resources




Allocation of resources within DOD have remained relatively
    constant over the past 60 years, except during war.
                                                              29
           An independent thought:



 The role of the Army is to provide
strategic breadth and depth to the
Joint Force through the conduct of
decisive unified land operations in
  support of National objectives.



 The Army gives the Commander in
Chief the widest range of options for
           actions on land.


                                        30
  Army Force-Sizing Missions



                                   Defend the
                  Deter and
                                  Homeland &
                    Defeat
                                  Support Civil
   Defeat         Aggression
Opportunistic                      Authorities
 Aggression

            Conduct Stability &
            Counterinsurgency
               Operations           Counter
                                  Terrorism &
                                   Irregular
                                    Warfare




                                                  31
                                       FOUO -- DRAFT -- PREDECISIONAL

                    Smaller Force ... Different Focus


                                   2003


                   Force Pool 1   AC       RC                  2018
                                                                                  Defend the Homeland & Support Civil
                                                       AC                RC                   Authorities
Rotational Depth




                                                            AC          RC        Counterterrorism & Irregular Warfare
                   Force Pool 2   AC       RC
                                                            AC           RC         Defeat Opportunistic Aggression




                                                                                   Combined Arms Campaign +
                   Force Pool 3                             AC               RC
                                  AC       RC                                        Transition Operations




                                       FOUO -- DRAFT -- PREDECISIONAL                                                    32
                                      Affordably Building a Force
Identify areas where risk can be accepted and trades can be made to achieve
high priority/high payoff modernization objectives.


                      Cost


                                                         Organization Size




                          Capability                        Item Cost

                  (Portfolio, Formation, Platform)

                                                          Variant of Item



                                              Schedule
                                                           Procurement
                                                             Schedule

               Quantity


             Where does the Army accept risk?
Combined Arms Maneuver – the application of the elements of combat power in a
complementary and reinforcing manner to achieve physical, temporal, or
psychological advantages over the enemy, preserve freedom of action, and exploit
success.

Wide Area Security – the application of the elements of combat power in
coordination with other military and civilian capabilities to deny the enemy positions
of advantage; protect forces, populations, infrastructure, and activities; and
consolidate tactical and operational gains to set conditions for achieving strategic
and policy goals.




                                                    Source: TRADOC Pamphlet 525-3-1
      Operational Concepts to Engage
Army Unified Land Operations play a
significant role in Joint Unified Action
• Joint Operational Access Concept
  (Counter Anti-Access / Area Denial)
    – Littoral Operations Concept
    – Joint Concept for Entry Operations
    – Sustained Land Operations Concept
    – Joint Sustainment Operations Concept
    – USA / USMC Concept for Gaining and Maintaining Access
• Building Partner Capacity Concept
• Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept
• Cyber Operations Concept



                                                              35

				
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