The Property Crisis in Ireland.ppt by malj

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									 The Property 
Crisis in Ireland


    Rob Kitchin,
   NUI Maynooth



   ISSP Sept 2011
   Forms of knowledge production and praxis 
                        Academic audience            Extra-academic audience
Instrumental knowledge Professional                  Applied/Policy
Knowledge              Theoretical/empirical        Concrete
Legitimacy             Scientific norms             Effectiveness
Accountability         Peers                        Clients/patrons
Pathology              Self-referentiality          Servility
Politics               Professional self-interest   Policy intervention
Reflexive knowledge     Critical                     Participatory and Public
Knowledge              Foundational                 Communicative
Legitimacy             Moral vision                 Relevance
Accountability         Critical intellectuals       Designated publics
Pathology              Dogmatism                    Faddishness
Politics               Internal debate              Public dialogues
    Phase 1: 
Public Geography
                     Initial work
• Produce a map of all the ghost estates in Ireland
• To put the phenomenon of ghost estates in perspective, 
  we would calculate the total number of vacant properties 
  in the country.  
• The vacancy rate in the April 2006 Census had been 
  217,101 houses (not including holiday homes), some 
  12.3% of total stock.  
• There was no official statistic since, and yet we knew that 
  248,390 houses had been built between January 2006 to 
  December 2009.  
• Using house completion data and the vacancy rate within 
  ghost estates we estimated the number of vacant 
  properties, excluding holiday homes, to be 302,625 or 
  about 15% of total stock (Census 2011, 294,202)
Public Geography
Ghost estate mapping
          A public discourse
• The NIRSA mapping was reproduced and discussed 
  on bulletin boards almost immediately
• The AP mapping appeared in several newspapers
Phase 2: Policy Geography
     Haunted Landscape report
• Placing the ghost estate data in a wider context
• Started to put together the Haunted Landscape 
  report.
• Drawing together data on housing, planning, 
  property taxation, tax breaks, construction 
  activity, house prices, land values, mortgages, 
  wider economy, NAMA
• Extended our own analysis
• Framed the discussion within a theory of political 
  economy – neoliberalism
• Tried to explain the boom and bust, not just 
  describe it
Between 1991 and 2011 population increased by 1,055m (29.9%); households
increased by c.680,000 (61.6%); the number of houses built in the same period
was at least 869,949 (76.7% increase, does not include replacement stock)




                                                  Housing completions per
                                                  1,000 of population 2007




House completions in Ireland, 1993
             -2009
          House price to average income
• In Q3 1995 the average secondhand house price was 4.1 
  times the average industrial wage of €18,152, by Q2 2007 
  secondhand house prices had risen to 11.9 times the 
  average industrial wage of €32,616.
Irish land values 1973-2006 (€ per hectare)
European land values by country (€ per hectare)
Percentage of increase in housing stock 2006-2009 in
  relation to vacancy (exc. holiday homes) in 2006
House completions in the five counties included in the
      Upper Shannon Rural Renewal Scheme
                   Zoned Land

• In June 2008, the DEHLG recorded that there 
  were 14,191 hectares of serviced land zoned 
  nationwide for 462,709 potential new units; same 
  again in unserviced land 
Housing vacancy 2011
• Property
   – House prices dropped 40-50%
   – 300,000+ households in negative equity
   – As of June 2011, 55,763 mortgages in 90 days or more 
     arrears, 69,873 mortgages restructured (777K 
     mortgages in the state)
             Tax from property development
In 2006 the property market accounted for 17% of total tax revenue, up from 
5% in 1998
Local authorities were benefiting through development levies, rising from 
€0.11bn in 2000 to €0.55bn in 2005, representing 13.6% of local government 
expenditure
23% office space in Dublin vacant; 
  26% oversupply of hotel rooms; 
  retail space doubled 2005-2010
Prime Time
       Working with agencies
• Started to work with government agencies
• Gave all our data to DECLG and met with them 
  several times
• Presented at different events
• Organised events
• Continued to do media work – newspapers, 
  radio, TV
• Undertook policy analysis
• Tried to influence policy and debates
 Unfinished estates survey/manual
• In response to media debate about the scale of 
  the unfinished estate and property oversupply 
  DECLG undertook the unfinished estates survey 
  and produced a manual to deal with them
                      The Numbers
•   Unfinished estates 2,846; 
•   Number of units in these estates: 
    121,248
•   Planning permission for an 
    additional: 58,025

•   Number occupied: 78,195
•   Units complete and vacant: 
    23,250
•   Nearly complete units: 9,976
•   Under-construction: 9,854
               The Numbers
• 1,475 estates have uncompleted properties on 
  them; 71% of these estates are non-active, i.e. 
  they have been abandoned by the developer 
• 635 estates have more than 50 per cent of units 
  under-construction
• 777 estates consist of 10 or more units where 50 
  per cent of units are either under construction or 
  vacant  (i.e. they are ghost estates)
• 2,157 estates are occupied (78,195)
   – 1102 are complete but have vacancy
   – 1,055 are incomplete and may have vacant units
    Challenges facing unfinished estates 
•   completion and maintenance
•   health and safety
•   security
•   anti-social behaviour
•   lack of services and public transport
•   building control and planning compliance
•   bonds and finance 
•   negative equity
•   sense of place and community 
Analysing unfinished estate data
          Data relating to unfinished estates
          Issues facing unfinished estates
          Policy relating to unfinished estates
                Put data online
• We created three interactive mapping modules via AIRO
   – All DECLG housing data
   – All DECLG unfinished estates data
   – All-island housing mapping module – NIHE/DEHLG data
Phase 3: Critical Geography
Add to broader academic debates
• Convert the material into academic papers for a 
  different wider international academic audience
• Using the data and analysis to engage with 
  different debates
   –   Housing and planning theory
   –   Political economy and neoliberalism
   –   Theory and practice of cartography
   –   Public geographies and blogging
   –   Landscape, identity and memory
•   See http://irelandafternama.wordpress.com

•   Kitchin, R., Gleeson, J. Keaveney, K. and O’Callaghan, 
    C. (2010) A Haunted Landscape: Housing and Ghost
    Estates in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland.  NIRSA Working 
    Paper 59.
•   Kitchin, R., O’Callaghan, C., Boyle, M., Gleeson, J. and 
    Keaveney, K. (in press) Placing Neoliberalism: The Rise 
    and Fall of Ireland’s Celtic Tiger.  Environment and
    Planning A
•   Kitchin, R., Gleeson, J. and Dodge, M. (in review) 
    Towards a new epistemology for cartography   
    Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers.
•   Kitchin, R. and IrelandAfterNAMA (in review)  Blogging 
    and public geographies  Area
•   Rob.Kitchin@nuim.ie

								
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