Implications for Housing

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					Implications for Housing

ALAN MURIE
CENTRE FOR URBAN AND REGIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

The implications of demographic change and migration for housing
• How much housing supply needs to grow to deal with existing shortages (homelessness, overcrowding, substandard…) and growth • Where, what sizes, types of housing A linear process taking on board the politics of housing?

Demographic change and migration

Labour market change

Numbers of Dwellings And Location

Sizes and types

Demographic/ Labour market change and migration

Housing Policy

Numbers of Dwellings And Location

Sizes and types

The Background To Housing Policy
• A NEW PHASE OF HOUSING POLICY • Where to house the 155,000 per annum 19962021 projected in England (or more) • Impact on countryside and major urban areas. • View that competitiveness of British cities globally and regionally was key to economic success • Cities agenda moved to centre of government policy.

The Background To Housing Policy
A NEW PHASE OF HOUSING POLICY • • • • • • Urban Task Force (1999) Housing Green paper (2000) New Planning Policy (2000) Communities Plan (2003) Barker review of Planning system (2004) Home Ownership Task Force (2004)

Housing Policy:

Demographic change and migration

•Home Ownership; •Follow the market •Growth Centres; •Housing Market Renewal; •High Density Development •Affordable Housing

Numbers of Dwellings And Location

Sizes and types

Critique
• Assumes the numbers are right (migration) • Assumes aspirations and choices remain firm • Assumes new private housing will be home ownership • (Barker) assumes supply will dampen prices • Treats housing as a residual • Lacks a vision for the West Midlands and its constituent parts

The Alternative: Housing Not A Residual
• Housing strategy not based on demographic

and economic projections
• Active housing policies to make sustainable economy and community • Driving change as well as responding to it

A new context for housing
A Nation of Home Owners: Housing decisions more central to household resource strategies • Second Home Owners • Locational Choice is about investment, pensions, care costs, schools, two earners……. • Household choices influenced by how housing interacts with economic and demographic changes

West Midlands: Housing and Employment Focus

Locational Choice
• The next phase of economic restructuring?
– The knowledge economy

• Jobs follow ‘talented’ households

• These households move to where there are attractive homes (housing and neighbourhood)
• Jobs follow attractive homes? • The implications for housing – build attractive homes in order to shape economic and demographic futures

Demographic Change: Implications for Housing

• Build for population growth and to match incremental change • Single person households but not one room dwellings • Take account of the market:
– Income and wealth differences – Larger dwellings and families – Displacement – Buy to let and second homes

HOUSING IN THE WEST MIDLANDS?

• Neighbourhoods that meet aspirations and
people choose to live in
– Address obsolete and unpopular housing as well as management

• Local Housing Markets which provide pathways of choice • Regional and sub regional strategies that address differential migration and

competitiveness

Pathways and Choices
• Migration
– International:
• High/low income

– National:
• High/low income • Retirement: Wealth

– Students

• • • • •

Gateway areas Student Villages Early career areas Mid-career areas Late career areas

• Residential Movement
– Housing careers: size, type, tenure, location

• Life Cycle and life style • BME households

Conclusions
• Housing as a residual • Respond to demographic and economic change • Predict and Provide Or • Housing as an attractor • As contributing to the market and place making • Rebalancing the market at a sub-regional level • Led by a range of considerations but aligned with demographic change • Plan to Change, Monitor and Improve


				
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