Long-Term Gold Price Statistical Analysis and Forecast.pptx by hcj

VIEWS: 1 PAGES: 17

									 LONG-TERM GOLD PRICE
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AN
      FORECAST
        NEJLA AKŞAN
     M.HAKTAN ATAMER
 INTRODUCTION


  We have done this study for answering the
 popular question: "How much gold will rise
this year? " We tried to guess the answer to the
                    it? Get access to what data?
So how did we do question.
We will discuss the answers to these questions
                 in more detail.
  What is the Correlation?

Correlation, in probability theory and statistics,
     gives a linear relationship between two
  random variables, indicates the direction and
                     strength.
  Correlation Coefficient (r)




The value of r is such that -1 < r < +1. The + and –
   signs are used for positive linear correlations
   and negative linear correlations, respectively.
     What Is The Regression
            Analysis?


A regression is a statistical analysis assessing the
  association between two variables. It is used to
   find the relationship between two variables.
          Linear Regression
 If the goal is prediction, or forecasting, linear
  regression can be used to fit a predictive model
  to an observed data set of Y and X values.
 Regression Formula:
ANALYSIS OF WORLD GOLD
 PRICES AND FORECAST
Searching Data
     Un Food      Gold
      Price
                  Price
      S&P
    Agriculture   Euro
     World         Oil
     Growth
      Index       Price

     Japanese
                   CRY
       Yen        Index
                  Dow
    Us Growth
      Index
                  Jones
 There are many factors that affect gold. The
 correlation coefficient of these factors are the
 most intense ones.


Gold Price         Oil Price       UN Food Price
Oil Price-Time(Last 1 Year) Estimate
                                            y=2,8870x+83,82 Oil-Time
                                            Regression Curve


                                            The value x=21 gives June
                                            2012

                                            The value y=144,45 gives Oil Price
                                            of June 2012




y=0,08x-2,9830    Oil-Gold Regression
Curve


y=144,45       x=1842,91


The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Oil Price-Time(Last 2 Year) Estimate

                                            y=2,1571x+62,2711 Oil-
                                            Time Regression Curve

                                            The value x=33 gives June
                                            2012

                                            The value y=133,46 gives
                                            Oil Price of gives June 2012




y=0,08-2,9830 Oil-Gold
Regression curve

y=133,46            x=1705,54

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Oil Price-Time(Last 3 Year) Estimate

                                             y=1,9408x+42,3811 Oil-Time
                                             Regression Curve


                                             The value x=45 gives June 2012


                                             The value y=129,72 gives Oil
                                             Price of June 2012


                                                y value is June 2012 Oil Price

y=0,08-2,9830 Oil-Gold
Regression Curve

 y=129,72            x=1658,79

 The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Un Food-Time(Last 1 Year) Estimate

                                            y=1,4830x+216,02 Un Food-
                                            Time Regression Curve

                                            The value x=21 gives June
                                            2012

                                            The value y=247.16 gives
                                            Un Food Price of June 2012


y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-Gold
Regression Curve


y=247,16         x=1666,75

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
 Un Food-Time(Last 2 Year) Estimate

                                            y=3,6182x+152,0796 Un Food
                                            -Time Regression Curve


                                            The value x=33 gives June 2012


                                            The value y=271,48 gives Un
                                            Food Price of June 2012




y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-
Gold Regression curve

y=271,48         x=1705,54


The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
  Un Food-Time(Last 3 Year) Estimate
                                            y=2,8329x+129,9318 Un
                                            Food-Time Regression
                                            Curve


                                            The value x=45 gives June
                                            2012

                                            The value y=257,41 gives Un
                                            Food of June 2012




y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-Gold
Regression Curve


y=257,41      x=1763,18


The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Gold Price-Time Regression Curves

                                                    y=37,4287x+1211,3 (1 year)

                                                    The value x=21 gives June 2012


                                                    The value y=1997,30 gives Gold
                                                    Price of June 2012



y=27,4621x+954,6986 (2 year)

The value x=33 gives June 2012

The value y=1860,95 gives Gold Price of June 2012




                                                     y=24,6051x+703,0582 (3 year)


                                                      The value x=45 gives June 2012

                                                      The value y=1810,29 gives Gold Price of
                                                      June 2012
Conclusion
               References
 Introduction To Linear Regression Analysis,
  Douglas C.MONTGOMERY, Elizabeth A.PECK,
  G.Geoffrey VINING, 2006
 Introduction To Linear Regression and Correlation,
  Allen Louis ED-WARDS, 1976
 Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia,
  http://www.wikipedia.org
 Introduction To Regression Analysis,
  http://www.nlreg.com/intro.htm
 Correlation Coefficient,
  http://matbits.com/mathbits/tisection/statistics2
  /correlation.htm

								
To top