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LONG-TERM GOLD PRICE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AN FORECAST NEJLA AKŞAN M.HAKTAN ATAMER INTRODUCTION We have done this study for answering the popular question: "How much gold will rise this year? " We tried to guess the answer to the it? Get access to what data? So how did we do question. We will discuss the answers to these questions in more detail. What is the Correlation? Correlation, in probability theory and statistics, gives a linear relationship between two random variables, indicates the direction and strength. Correlation Coefficient (r) The value of r is such that -1 < r < +1. The + and – signs are used for positive linear correlations and negative linear correlations, respectively. What Is The Regression Analysis? A regression is a statistical analysis assessing the association between two variables. It is used to find the relationship between two variables. Linear Regression If the goal is prediction, or forecasting, linear regression can be used to fit a predictive model to an observed data set of Y and X values. Regression Formula: ANALYSIS OF WORLD GOLD PRICES AND FORECAST Searching Data Un Food Gold Price Price S&P Agriculture Euro World Oil Growth Index Price Japanese CRY Yen Index Dow Us Growth Index Jones There are many factors that affect gold. The correlation coefficient of these factors are the most intense ones. Gold Price Oil Price UN Food Price Oil Price-Time(Last 1 Year) Estimate y=2,8870x+83,82 Oil-Time Regression Curve The value x=21 gives June 2012 The value y=144,45 gives Oil Price of June 2012 y=0,08x-2,9830 Oil-Gold Regression Curve y=144,45 x=1842,91 The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012 Oil Price-Time(Last 2 Year) Estimate y=2,1571x+62,2711 Oil- Time Regression Curve The value x=33 gives June 2012 The value y=133,46 gives Oil Price of gives June 2012 y=0,08-2,9830 Oil-Gold Regression curve y=133,46 x=1705,54 The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012 Oil Price-Time(Last 3 Year) Estimate y=1,9408x+42,3811 Oil-Time Regression Curve The value x=45 gives June 2012 The value y=129,72 gives Oil Price of June 2012 y value is June 2012 Oil Price y=0,08-2,9830 Oil-Gold Regression Curve y=129,72 x=1658,79 The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012 Un Food-Time(Last 1 Year) Estimate y=1,4830x+216,02 Un Food- Time Regression Curve The value x=21 gives June 2012 The value y=247.16 gives Un Food Price of June 2012 y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-Gold Regression Curve y=247,16 x=1666,75 The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012 Un Food-Time(Last 2 Year) Estimate y=3,6182x+152,0796 Un Food -Time Regression Curve The value x=33 gives June 2012 The value y=271,48 gives Un Food Price of June 2012 y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food- Gold Regression curve y=271,48 x=1705,54 The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012 Un Food-Time(Last 3 Year) Estimate y=2,8329x+129,9318 Un Food-Time Regression Curve The value x=45 gives June 2012 The value y=257,41 gives Un Food of June 2012 y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-Gold Regression Curve y=257,41 x=1763,18 The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012 Gold Price-Time Regression Curves y=37,4287x+1211,3 (1 year) The value x=21 gives June 2012 The value y=1997,30 gives Gold Price of June 2012 y=27,4621x+954,6986 (2 year) The value x=33 gives June 2012 The value y=1860,95 gives Gold Price of June 2012 y=24,6051x+703,0582 (3 year) The value x=45 gives June 2012 The value y=1810,29 gives Gold Price of June 2012 Conclusion References Introduction To Linear Regression Analysis, Douglas C.MONTGOMERY, Elizabeth A.PECK, G.Geoffrey VINING, 2006 Introduction To Linear Regression and Correlation, Allen Louis ED-WARDS, 1976 Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, http://www.wikipedia.org Introduction To Regression Analysis, http://www.nlreg.com/intro.htm Correlation Coefficient, http://matbits.com/mathbits/tisection/statistics2 /correlation.htm