# Long-Term Gold Price Statistical Analysis and Forecast.pptx by hcj

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```									 LONG-TERM GOLD PRICE
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AN
FORECAST
NEJLA AKŞAN
M.HAKTAN ATAMER
INTRODUCTION

We have done this study for answering the
popular question: "How much gold will rise
this year? " We tried to guess the answer to the
So how did we do question.
We will discuss the answers to these questions
in more detail.
What is the Correlation?

Correlation, in probability theory and statistics,
gives a linear relationship between two
random variables, indicates the direction and
strength.
Correlation Coefficient (r)

The value of r is such that -1 < r < +1. The + and –
signs are used for positive linear correlations
and negative linear correlations, respectively.
What Is The Regression
Analysis?

A regression is a statistical analysis assessing the
association between two variables. It is used to
find the relationship between two variables.
Linear Regression
 If the goal is prediction, or forecasting, linear
regression can be used to fit a predictive model
to an observed data set of Y and X values.
 Regression Formula:
ANALYSIS OF WORLD GOLD
PRICES AND FORECAST
Searching Data
Un Food      Gold
Price
Price
S&P
Agriculture   Euro
World         Oil
Growth
Index       Price

Japanese
CRY
Yen        Index
Dow
Us Growth
Index
Jones
There are many factors that affect gold. The
correlation coefficient of these factors are the
most intense ones.

Gold Price         Oil Price       UN Food Price
Oil Price-Time(Last 1 Year) Estimate
y=2,8870x+83,82 Oil-Time
Regression Curve

The value x=21 gives June
2012

The value y=144,45 gives Oil Price
of June 2012

y=0,08x-2,9830    Oil-Gold Regression
Curve

y=144,45       x=1842,91

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Oil Price-Time(Last 2 Year) Estimate

y=2,1571x+62,2711 Oil-
Time Regression Curve

The value x=33 gives June
2012

The value y=133,46 gives
Oil Price of gives June 2012

y=0,08-2,9830 Oil-Gold
Regression curve

y=133,46            x=1705,54

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Oil Price-Time(Last 3 Year) Estimate

y=1,9408x+42,3811 Oil-Time
Regression Curve

The value x=45 gives June 2012

The value y=129,72 gives Oil
Price of June 2012

y value is June 2012 Oil Price

y=0,08-2,9830 Oil-Gold
Regression Curve

y=129,72            x=1658,79

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Un Food-Time(Last 1 Year) Estimate

y=1,4830x+216,02 Un Food-
Time Regression Curve

The value x=21 gives June
2012

The value y=247.16 gives
Un Food Price of June 2012

y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-Gold
Regression Curve

y=247,16         x=1666,75

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Un Food-Time(Last 2 Year) Estimate

y=3,6182x+152,0796 Un Food
-Time Regression Curve

The value x=33 gives June 2012

The value y=271,48 gives Un
Food Price of June 2012

y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-
Gold Regression curve

y=271,48         x=1705,54

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Un Food-Time(Last 3 Year) Estimate
y=2,8329x+129,9318 Un
Food-Time Regression
Curve

The value x=45 gives June
2012

The value y=257,41 gives Un
Food of June 2012

y=0,1063+69,9843 Un Food-Gold
Regression Curve

y=257,41      x=1763,18

The value x gives Gold Price of June 2012
Gold Price-Time Regression Curves

y=37,4287x+1211,3 (1 year)

The value x=21 gives June 2012

The value y=1997,30 gives Gold
Price of June 2012

y=27,4621x+954,6986 (2 year)

The value x=33 gives June 2012

The value y=1860,95 gives Gold Price of June 2012

y=24,6051x+703,0582 (3 year)

The value x=45 gives June 2012

The value y=1810,29 gives Gold Price of
June 2012
Conclusion
References
 Introduction To Linear Regression Analysis,
Douglas C.MONTGOMERY, Elizabeth A.PECK,
G.Geoffrey VINING, 2006
 Introduction To Linear Regression and Correlation,
Allen Louis ED-WARDS, 1976
 Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia,
http://www.wikipedia.org
 Introduction To Regression Analysis,
http://www.nlreg.com/intro.htm
 Correlation Coefficient,
http://matbits.com/mathbits/tisection/statistics2
/correlation.htm

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