Alternative Development Plan for Central Chile's Ports.pptx

Document Sample
Alternative Development Plan for Central Chile's Ports.pptx Powered By Docstoc
					         “Soñar Valparaíso”


Alternative Development Plan 
   for Chile’s Region V Ports

            Asaf Ashar
  National Ports & Waterways Int., USA
       www.asafashar.com
               April 2012
          Presentation Agenda
•   Traffic Forecast
•   Fleet Forecast      Demand Scenarios
•   EPSA/EPV Plan
                        Supply Options
•   Alternative Plan
•   Capacity of Plans
•   Capability of Plans Comparison
•   Cost of Plans
•   Summary & Conclusions
                 Past Traffic Developments
 1,800,000                                                                                                                                    60%
                     Containerization
Containerization (Reefer, Copper, Forest                                                                                                      55%
Products)
 1,600,000
                                                                                                                                              50%
Growing Import & Asia                                                                                                                         45%
 1,400,000
                                                                                                                                              40%
 1,200,000
                                                                               14.5%                                                          35%

 1,000,000                                                                                                                                    30%
                                                                                                                                              25%
  800,000                                                                       9.5%                                                          20%
                                                                                                                                              15%
  600,000
                                                                                                                                              10%
  400,000                                                                                                                                     5%
                                                                                                                                              0%
  200,000
                                                                                                                                              -5%
         -                                                                                                                                    -10%
             0

                  1

                         2

                                3

                                       4

                                              5

                                                     6

                                                            7

                                                                   8

                                                                          9

                                                                                 0

                                                                                        1

                                                                                               2

                                                                                                      3

                                                                                                             4

                                                                                                                    5

                                                                                                                           6

                                                                                                                                  7

                                                                                                                                         8
                                                                    TEUs
            9

                   9

                          9

                                 9

                                        9

                                               9

                                                      9

                                                             9

                                                                    9

                                                                           9

                                                                                  0

                                                                                         0

                                                                                                0

                                                                                                       0

                                                                                                              0

                                                                                                                     0

                                                                                                                            0

                                                                                                                                   0

                                                                                                                                          0
         19

                19

                       19

                              19

                                     19

                                            19

                                                   19

                                                          19

                                                                 19

                                                                        19

                                                                               20

                                                                                      20

                                                                                             20

                                                                                                    20

                                                                                                           20

                                                                                                                  20

                                                                                                                         20

                                                                                                                                20

                                                                                                                                       20
                                                                    Change (%)
                    Forecast Scenarios
Only to 2017 when Outer Harbor needed
                                        4.0 mil.


                                                   177%
                                        2.2 mil.
World’s Economic Forecast

              Increasing Volatility




                                      Slowing Recovery




                               IHS Global Insight; Wilbur Smith; Ashar
Larger Newer Ships more Fuel Efficient

                    Present and Future Ships
                                                                                           Arrangement    
                                                                     Dimensions              
                                                   Capacity      
     Category             Name          Operator                  LOA x Beam x Draft  Under-Below-
                                                    (TEUs)
                                                                         (m)               Across (rows)

    Sub Panamax      Cap San Antonio      HSD       3,700         252 x 32.2 x 12.5         8 -6 - 13

   Panamax - Max      Zim Savannah        Zim       5,000         295 x 32.3 x 13.5         8 -6 - 13

   Post Panamax I     Monte Class III     HSD       6,300          300 x 40 x 13.5          9 - 5 - 16

  Post Panamax II    Sovereign Maersk   Maersk      8,000         347 x 42.8 x 14.5         9 - 6 - 18

                      New Panamax 
  Post Panamax III                         ---     12,500          366 x 49 x 15.2       10 - 6 - 19/20
                         (NPX)

  Post Panamax III     MSC Daniela        MSC      13,800          366 x 51.3 x 15         10 – 6 - 20

  Post Panamax III    Emma Maersk       Maersk     14,500         396 x 56.4 x 15.5        10 – 6 - 22

  Post Panamax III       Triple E        18,000    165,000         400 x 59 x 15.5        10 – 8 - 23
Fleet Composition by Line
                                                       38%

              Growing Consolidation (Super Alliances),
              Larger Ships, Larger Terminals




                                       Alphaliner 2012; Ashar
          Presentation Agenda
•   Traffic Forecast
•   Fleet Forecast      Demand Scenarios
•   EPSA/EPV Plan
                        Supply Options
•   Alternative Plan
•   Capacity of Plans
•   Capability of Plans Comparison
•   Cost of Plans
•   Summary & Conclusions
Comparison of Development Plans
• Capacity – Forecast Scenarios (TEUs)
• Capability – Future Ships (Depth, Turning Basin,
  Berth Length, Yard Area)
• Efficiency – Scale Economies; Automation;
  Land Access; Logistic
• Competition
• (Environmental Concerns)
             Alternative Plans
• EPSA/EPV Plan –
  – Short Term: Minor Extension of Present Terminals
  – Mid Term: New Terminals in San Antonio (Puerto
    Central) and Valparaiso (Terminal 2)
• Alternative Plan (AA & PW) –
  – Short Term: Meaningful Expansion of Present
    Terminals
  – Long Term: Outer Terminal
• Cost Comparison – Only Basic Infrastructure
  – Per Capacity Unit ($/ TEU)
• Only Containers
                Competition
• Valparaiso and San Antonio serve the same 
  Hinterland
  – No Captive Cargo
• Similar Services & Prices
  – Line Switching for $10/Box
  – Both STI & TPS Low Price $120/Box
• Tight Price Control by EPSA/EPV
• Small Risk of Collusion
• 3 Terminals = Sufficient Number of Competitors
          Automated Modern Terminal
600 x 600 m = 32 ha; 16 ha / 300-m Berth

8 STS (65 MT, no tandem); 32 ASC (8 wide,
1-over-5); 20 Shuttle Strads




                                            TTI; Ashar2012
  Middle Harbor Terminal Long Beach (1)
2 Terminals; 80 ha; 1.3 M TEUs; 16,250   1 Terminals; 120 ha; 3.3 M TEUs; 27,500
TEUs/ha                                  TEUs/ha (+70%); $1.2 billion; 40-year Lease




POLB; Ashar2012
      Berth’s Scale Economies
3 X (0.68 – 0.58) = 0.3; 3rd Berth = 1.3

More Combinations of Ship Length
1,200 = 240 x 5; 900 = 240 x 3

Fixed Facilities: Gate, Administration,
Maintenance
                                                 n=3

                                           0.1
San Antonio Harbor

              Lagoon

             Puerto 
             Central




            Bulk
Original EPSA Plan

          Deep


          Shallow
 Lagoon
                               2011 EPSA Plan -- STI
                                                                Ampliación a incorporar por canje a
       Área Total: 31 ha (40 ha)                                STI
     Frente lineal: 746 m (900 m)
             Calado: 15 m                                       Área de respaldo a canjear a STI

                                                                Área Inundada a canjear a STI
                            16 Ha
                                                                Puerto Central
                 7,2
                       Ha




                                                                                                   N
                                                                                                   N
          8,8
                Ha
                                                900 m


                                    131 m
                                            Ampliación Frente




17
17
        2011 EPSA Plan – Puerto Central
                     Área Total: 35.7ha                         Ship-side Yard: 12 ha; 4 ha / Berth
     Frente lineal: 945 m (700 + 245) + 250 = 1,195m
                                                                Odd-Shape Area; Traffic?
                     Profudidal : 15 m
                                                                STI Sea Protection: 2% to 5% Downtime




                                                                                                        N
                                                       900 m



                                                          120
                                                           14 ha
                                                             m

                                                                               620
                                                                       740         m
                                                                           m
                                                          945 m




                                                                                        250 m
18
18
            Original EPV Plan -- TPS
       Área Total: 13 ha                         740 m << 900, 945 m of SA Terminals
     Frente lineal: 740 m
      Profudidal: 14.5 m




                                           120
                                               m
                            6.5 ha/Berth
                                                               620
                                                       740         m
                                                           m




19
         Original EPV Plan (1)
Dow




           Terminal 1
   nto




           TPS (628 m, 16 ha)
   wn




                  Terminal 2
                    Original EPV Plan (2)
30 - 40 m Depth in Front!
Limited Protection: 5 - 15% Downtown

6 – 7 ha / Berth; Remote Gate? Logistics?

Constrained Land Access; Rail?
                      EPV 2012 Bidding
Only 1 Container Berth?         Only 2 Berths

                                Sea Protection; Land Access




                                          ?
Expanded STI, San Antonio
     +9 ha; 43 ha                     2007: 1.55 million TEUs

                                      2012: 2.2 million TEUs




                       l
                                 769m (-15 m)

                    +430m; 1,200m; 49 ha




                                                          Ashar 2009
   Expanded TPS, Valparaiso
                                              2007: 1.45 million TEUs

                                              2012: 1.87 million TEUs

                                              2012: 6 ha / Berth
                              +516m; 1,130m

               +7 ha; 23 ha

610 m; 16 ha




                                                                   Ashar 2009
                              Port Moin, APMT
Phase I: 600 m / 40 ha / -16 m / 1.3 M TEUs;   Final: 1,500 m / 80 ha / -18 m/ 6 M TEUs

Bid 8/2010; Award 3/2011; Phase I: 8/2016; 33 Years; 80% of Trade; Exclusivity; Price Control




  APMT 2011; Google; Ashar 2012
                                  Colombo South Harbor
 3 x 1,200 m (3 x 400m) ; 18m (23m); 600 ha; 7.2 M TEUS (0.8 M TEUs/Berth)

 6.8 km Breakwater; $1.6 billion; 75% Transshipment; Indian Direct?




                                       Future Port                Present Port




Ashar; Sri Lanka Port Authority
   Rotterdam’s Maasvlakte 2

   Present Port




            Future Port




Open-Sea Reclamation; 240 M cu m; 11 km Seawall; 1,000 ha

3 Terminals: Euromax, APMT and ECT/HPH, each 1,200 m; 1.2 mil TEU/Berth
Outer Harbor   400 x 500 m Modules




               600 m Diameter
                                              Outer Harbor 
                                              Development 
                                                Options

                              General & 
                                Bulk

                                  Logistic 
                                   Park




Ashar/Woodbury 2009

http://www.lyd.com/lyd/controls
/neochannels/neo_ch4358/deplo
y/presentacion2.pdf
          Presentation Agenda
•   Traffic Forecast
•   Fleet Forecast      Demand Scenarios
•   EPSA/EPV Plan
                        Supply Options
•   Alternative Plan
•   Capacity of Plans
•   Capability of Plans Comparison
•   Cost of Plans
•   Summary & Conclusions
                   Capacity vs. Forecast
             Capacity -- Existing     Capacity --           Forecast -- 6%      Forecast -- 15% 
Year
                    Plan           Alternative Plan            Growth              Growth
2010          2,425,000              2,425,000             1,500,000           1,500,000
2012          2,999,000              4,050,000             1,685,400           1,983,750
2014          5,649,000              4,380,000             1,893,715           2,623,509
2017          5,649,000              5,908,571             2,255,445           3,990,030
       6,000,000                                                          6,000,000

                            Cap. Existing Plan
       5,000,000                                                          5,000,000
                            Cap. Alternative Plan

                            6% Growth
       4,000,000                                                          4,000,000
                            15% Growth

       3,000,000                                                          3,000,000



       2,000,000                                                          2,000,000



       1,000,000                                                          1,000,000



               -                                                          -
                     2010           2012            2014        2017                    Ashar 2009
                   Infrastructure Unit Costs
     Construction Element      Unit        Cost per Unit ($, US)
Berths (Muelles)            Linear Meter         121,000
Structural Steel                Ton               2,200
Sheet Pile Placement        Linear Meter          1,900
Excavation                  Cubic Meter             25
Dredging                    Cubic Meter            6.5
Hydraulic Fill              Cubic Meter             9
Quarry Run or Select Fill   Cubic Meter             25
Dewatering Hydraulic Fill     Hectare             10,000
Dynamic Compaction            Hectare             24,000
Finish Grading                Hectare             12,500



                                                           Woodbury 2009
                        Cost Comparison

                         Capacity (TEUs)            Infrastructure Cost         Unit Cost 
     Plan
                      2012            2017               ($)        Differ. ($/TEU) Differ.

                                                                                 128.
EPSA/EPV Plan        2,999,000        5,649,000     412,979,944     100%       1    100%

                                                                                       9
Alternative Plan     4,050,000        5,908,571     326,893,709      79%      3.8          73%

                                                                                       34.
  EPSA/EPV -
                       1,051,000           259,571     86,086,236   21%         3          27%
  Alternative



                                                                                     Ashar 2009
         Summary & Conclusion
• EPSA/EPV Plans – Small Terminals, Odd Shape, No Rail,
  Difficult Land Access, No Support Facilities, Problems in
  Navigations, Difficulties in Serving Future Post-
  Panamax
• Alternative Plan – New Spacious Harbor, Large
  Terminals, Accommodates Traffic to 2035 and beyond
• Expansion of Present Terminals – Relatively Easy and
  Cost Effective, Retains Competition (Tariff Control)
• Savings -- Alternative Saves $86 million, or 27% of
  Infrastructural Cost
• Other Cargoes -- Outer Harbor has sufficient space for
  Non-Container Cargoes
       “Soñar Valparaíso”



           Gracias

          Asaf Ashar
National Ports & Waterways Int., USA
     www.asafashar.com
             April 2012

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:28
posted:12/15/2013
language:English
pages:35