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					                      Health & Valuation Benefits
                 Assessments for the 2007 AQMP

         Prepared for: South Coast Air Quality Management District
      Scientific, Technical & Modeling Peer Review Advisory Group

                              Leland Deck and Lauraine Chestnut
                                              Stratus Consulting
                                  Boulder, CO & Washington, DC

                                                    April 11, 2007

STRATUS CONSULTING
Stratus Consulting’s Work for AQMD

ú Asked to recommend methods for
   – Estimating health effects from modeled improvements in
     future PM2.5 and ozone estimated for 2007 AQMP
   – Estimating economic value of those health effects
   – Conduct health and valuation analysis
ú Presented at December Advisory Group meetings
   – We received written & oral comments
   – We revised several key methods about mortality
ú Purpose today
   – Update on response to comments on methods
   – Present results of health and valuation benefits analysis
                                                             #2
  STRATUS CONSULTING
Revisions Responding to Comments
1) Valuing Premature Mortality

ú Now weighted mean of 3 study approaches
   – 50% from mean of US CV studies
      • Kochi et al. (‘06), CV only: $2.8M
   – 25% from unadjusted US wage studies
      • Viscusi & Aldy (‘03): 44 US studies: $7.8M
   – 25% from adjusted US Wage studies
      • Mrozek & Taylor (‘02): 33 US studies: $2.6M
   – Weighted mean = $5.1M. All values in 2000$ & income

                                                           #3
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Recommended Health Effects & Values
             (all in 2000 prices & future year income)




                                                         #4
STRATUS CONSULTING
Revisions Responding to Comments
2) Estimating Premature Mortality
ú PM2.5 related Premature Mortality
   – Now using weighted average of 3 studies
   – 50% for Pope et al. (2002)
   – 25% for Jarrett (2005) study in LA
   – 25% for Laden et al. (2006) eastern “6 cities”
   – Weighted average is similar results of 2006
     EPA Expert Elicitation study



                                                      #5
  STRATUS CONSULTING
Expert Elicitation Results: National 1 μg/m3
PM2.5 Mortality Risk at Baseline =18 μg/m3




                       Jerrett




                            Pope




                                           #6
  STRATUS CONSULTING
Estimating Avoided Health Effects

ú Estimating #s of health effects requires 4 things
   – Change in air quality
   – C-R function for each health effect
   – Population in future year, by age
   – Baseline incidence rates
        • E.g., annual # deaths per 100k, ages 55-59
ú All analysis done at the Air Quality Grid Cell Level
   – South Coast CAMx AQ Domain: 5km x 5km
   – Summed & Reported for 19 Health Districts
                                                         #7
   STRATUS CONSULTING
PM2.5 Baseline 2005 Air Quality
Annual Mean, in μg/m3




                                  #8
 STRATUS CONSULTING
Improvement in PM2.5 with AQMP
2014 (change in Ann Avg. PM2.5, μg/m3)   (+ is good)




                                                   #9
  STRATUS CONSULTING
Improvement in PM2.5 with AQMP
2020 (change in PM2.5, μg/m3) (+ is good)




                                            # 10
  STRATUS CONSULTING
PM2.5 Avoided Health Effects & Values
(Millions of $, in 2000 prices and future year income)




                                                         # 11
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Ozone Health Effects: Air Quality

ú Uses somewhat different AQ modeling approach
   – Same 5km x 5km grid cell level
   – 2005 levels from interpolated monitor data
   – Relative Reduction Factors (RRFs)
      • 1 set of 24 RRFs for each cell: 1 per hour
      •Example; for each cell
                2020 control case 11:00am, July 23 =
                (11am, 7/23/05) * (cell’s 11am RRF for 2020 control)



                                                                  # 12
  STRATUS CONSULTING
Estimating Avoided Ozone Health Effects

ú Estimating #s of health effects requires every hour
modeling
   – All O3 health effects are calculated daily
       • Daily estimates summed for annual total
   – C-R function use different averaging times
       • 1 Hour Daily Max
       • 8 Hour Daily Max
       • 24 Hour Average

                                                        # 13
  STRATUS CONSULTING
Peak Day vrs. Annual Mean of Peak Hours

ú Air Quality community accustomed to Design Values
   – Simply; measure of worst day in year
   – Averaging times: 1 Hour Max, 8 Hour Max, 24 Hour Avg.
ú Worst Day VERY different than Annual Mean of
  same averaging time
   – Health is effected AQ every day, not only on worst day
   – Changes in Annual Mean of an averaging time is driver of
     health changes
      • Example: average of 365 days of 1 Hour Max values


                                                          # 14
  STRATUS CONSULTING
2005 Estimated Peak1 Hour Max
Range: 60 ppb to 180 ppb




                                # 15
 STRATUS CONSULTING
2005 Annual Mean of 365 1 Hour Max Values
Range: 30 ppb to 70 ppb




                                       # 16
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Improvement in Annual Mean O3, 1 Hour Max
2009 Range: -1.8 ppb to +0.5 ppb ( + is good)




                                          # 17
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Improvement in Annual Mean O3, 1 Hour Max
2012 Range: -6.3 ppb to +2.2 ppb ( + is good)




                                          # 18
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Improvement in Annual Mean O3, 1 Hour Max
2020 Range: -23 ppb to +6 ppb ( + is good)




                                        # 19
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Improvement in Annual Mean O3, 1 Hour Max
2023 Range: -45 ppb to +15 ppb ( + is good)




                                        # 20
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Improvement in Annual Mean O3, 1 Hour Max
2023 “Least Toxic” Range: -35 ppb to +12 ppb




                                        # 21
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Thresholds in Ozone Health Analysis

ú Ozone health effects are modeled both with a
  threshold AND without a threshold
   – Thresholds set at California O3 Standard
      • 1 Hour Max = 90 ppb
      • 8 Hour Max = 70 ppb
      • 24 Hour Avg. = 30 ppb
ú In a threshold analysis only changes above
  the relevant Standard are used to estimate
  health effects
                                                # 22
  STRATUS CONSULTING
Ozone Health # Cases Results (+ is good)




                                       # 23
 STRATUS CONSULTING
Ozone Health Valuation Results                           (+ is good)
(Millions of $, in 2000 prices and future year income)




                                                                       # 24
   STRATUS CONSULTING
Valuation Summary

ú Advantage of valuation analysis is you can
  add $$ together.
ú Not so easy here
   – Ozone & PM analyzed in different years
      • PM: 2014 and 2020
      • Ozone: 2009, 2012, 2020 and 2023
   – Ozone has 2 analyses: with & without
     thresholds

                                               # 25
  STRATUS CONSULTING
 2020 Total Benefits
 (Millions of $ in 2000 prices, 2020 incomes




ú Conclusions:
   – Monetized PM Benefits dominate analysis
   – Benefits in 2014 ~ $15 Billion
   – Benefits in 2020 ~ $20 Billion
                                               # 26
    STRATUS CONSULTING

				
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posted:12/7/2013
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