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					Higher Education With Changing Demographics 2/3/06
Will population change and growth make progress in education harder?
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Topics of discussion
 What is SREB?  Population growth - Working age population  Education Demographic Shifts Gaps in education attainment, young workers, women and education  Enrollment Growth & H.S. Graduates  Income & Education – student fees, financial aid  Poverty Issues

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SREB works to achieve 12 Challenge to Lead Goals for Education
in the region.
1. 2. 3. All children are ready for the first grade. Achievement in the early grades for all groups of students exceeds national averages and performance gaps are closed. Achievement in the middle grades for all groups of students exceeds national averages and performance gaps are closed. All young adults have a high school diploma — or, if not, pass the GED tests. All recent high school graduates have solid academic preparation and are ready for postsecondary education and a career. Adults who are not high school graduates participate in literacy and job-skills training and further education. The percentage of adults who earn postsecondary degrees or technical certificates exceeds national averages. Every school has higher student performance and meets state academic standards for all students each year. Every school has leadership that results in improved student performance — and leadership begins with an effective school principal. Every student is taught by qualified teachers. The quality of colleges and universities is regularly assessed and funding is targeted to quality, efficiency and state needs. The state places a high priority on an education system of schools, colleges and universities that is accountable.

4.
5. 6.

7.
8. 9. 10. 11. 12.

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Southeastern Regional Education Board (SREB)
In 2004, 8 of the SREB states (DE, FL, GA, NC, SC, TN, TX & VA) had rates of population increase that exceeded the national average. SREB region will lead the nation in growth in the next 20 years.

16 State Members: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia & West Virginia.

3 of the nations 10 most populous states are SREB states: (TX: 2nd - 22.5 million, FL: 4th - 17.4 million, GA: 9th - 8.8 million & NC: 11th - 8.5 million). “SREB states can lead the nation in educational progress. Nothing influences a state’s prosperity more than the education of its people.” Challenge to Lead, 2002
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Population Growth
More than half (51%) of the nations population growth from 2004 to 2014 is expected to be in the 16 SREB states – an increase of 13.1 million.
Population Growth Projected and Actual 10.2 15.4 13.1 14.6 27.0 10.0 20.0 In Millions U.S. SREB 30.0 40.0 26.0

2014 to 2024 2004 to 2014 1994 to 2004 1984 to 1994 0.0

24.5 33.3

From 2014 to 2024, the SREB region is projected to grow by an additional 14.6 million – 54% of the national increase.
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Working-age population will dip below 50%
Percent of Residents by Age Group

By 2025, the population of the SREB states working-age adults will make up less than half the U.S. population for the first time since 1986.

SREB States 100.0%8.0% 80.0% 29.0% 60.0% 40.0% 51.0% 20.0% 0.0% 1994
13.0% 7.0% 28.0% 7.0% 27.0% 7.0% 26.0%

Children under 5 School- and college- age (5-24) Working-age adults (25-64) Senior citizens (65 or older)

53.0% 12.0%

52.0% 15.0%

49.0% 18.0%

2004

2015

2025

Volusia County
Percent of Residents by Age Group

Children under 5
Within 10 years, many baby boomers will School- and move into the senior college- age (5-24) citizen category and Working-age adults that age group will become the fastest(25-64) growing proportion of Senior citizens (65 the population. or older)

100.0%4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 23.6% 23.2% 22.4% 21.4% 80.0% 60.0% 49.5% 50.2% 50.6% 49.8% 40.0% 20.0% 22.1% 21.7% 22.1% 24.0% 0.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015

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Education Demographic Shifts
Black and Hispanic adults lag in education attainment
Percent of Adults Age 25 and Older with High School Diplomas or GED Credentials, 2000 63% 69% 54% Vol Co

83% Hispanic Black White

SREB States U.S.

70% 81% 72%

52% 84%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80% 100%

The DOE September 2005 minority enrollment and completion report indicate that the FCCS has shown a 29.8% increase in Hispanic student enrollment and a 19.9% increase in AfricanAmerican student enrollment over the last five years.

GED

During the same period, the FCCS overall student enrollment grew 8.4%. The overall completion rate increased 17.7%.

Percent of Adults Age 25 and Older with Bachelor's Degrees or Higher, 2000 Vol Co SREB States U.S. 0% 12% 15% 18% 12% 14% 10% 14% 10% 20% 24% 26% 30%
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Bachelor's

Hispanic Black White

In 2004, 15% (49,785) of the Volusia County Population Age 25 and Over had No Diploma. A decrease from 2000’s 18% (56,982)

Young Workers Need More Education
Number of 25-44 Year-Olds Who have not Completed High School, 2000
Escambia Santa Rosa Okaloosa Walton Holmes Washington Calhoun Bay Liberty Gulf Jackson Gadsden Leon Wakulla Taylor Franklin Lafayette Gilchrist Dixie Levy Marion Volusia Citrus Sumter Hernando Pasco Polk Lake Seminole Orange Brevard Jefferson Madison Hamilton Baker Columbia Suwannee Duval Nassau Union Clay Bradford Alachua St. Johns

Putnam Flagler

Hillsborough Pinellas

Osceola

Indian River

674 to 1,028 1,028 to 2,662 2,662 to 6,973 6,973 to 31,347 31,347 to 161,899

Manatee

Hardee

Okeechobee Highlands St. Lucie Martin

Sarasota

DeSoto Glades

Charlotte

Lee

Hendry

Palm Beach

Collier

Broward

Miami-Dade Monroe

Northwest Volusia - Pierson Area
Florida = 1,066,505 (23.2% of Total 25-44 Population)

Street Location - Ormond Beach Census Tracts 901.02, 832.04 & 808.04
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Women Making Educational Gains

Population with 6th grade or less education
Population with 9th grade or less education Population with no diploma Some college but has no degree

Did you know?
6,537 23,445 56,982 76,948 2.1% 7.4% 18.0% 24.3% 53.8% 50.1% 48.5% 46.6% 46.2% 49.9% 51.5% 53.4%

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Women Making Educational Gains
Volusia County, Florida 2004 No schooling completed Population 630 0.2% Male: 421 66.8% Female: 209 33.2%

Nursery to 4th grade
5th and 6th grade 7th and 8th grade 9th grade 10th grade 11th grade

1,913
2,278 6,200 9,517 10,280 9,217

0.6%
0.7% 1.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8%

1,306
1,443 3,803 5,614 3,852 6,337

68.3%
63.3% 61.3% 59.0% 37.5% 68.8%

607
835 2,397 3,903 6,428 2,880

31.7%
36.7% 38.7% 41.0% 62.5% 31.2%

12th grade, no diploma
High school graduate (includes equivalency)

9,750
107,980

2.9%
32.4%

5,213
45,054

53.5%
41.7%

4,537
62,926

46.5%
58.3%

Some college, less than 1 year
Some college, 1 or more years, no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Professional school degree Doctorate degree Total: 6th grade or less education 9th grade or less education No diploma Some college no degree

23,309
54,213 28,590 45,416 14,897 6,343 2,462 332,995 4,821 20,538 49,785 77,522

7.0%
16.3% 8.6% 13.6% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7% 100.0% 1.4% 6.2% 15.0% 23.3%

10,522
25,782 10,784 23,347 7,022 4,680 1,423 156,603 3,170 12,587 27,989 36,304

45.1%
47.6% 37.7% 51.4% 47.1% 73.8% 57.8% 47.0% 65.8% 61.3% 56.2% 46.8%

12,787
28,431 17,806 22,069 7,875 1,663 1,039 176,392 1,651 7,951 21,796 41,218

54.9%
52.4% 62.3% 48.6% 52.9% 26.2% 42.2% 53.0% 34.2% 38.7% 43.8% 53.2%

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Enrollment Growth and Graduates
Did you know? Growth in the public school enrollment is forecast to continue but at lesser rates for half of the SREB region (DE, FL, GA, MD, SC, TN, TX & VA).

Volusia County High School Graduate projections show an increase of 8.6% (322) from 2004 to 2010.

Nationally, public high school graduates are expected to grow by 9% from 2002 to 2012. 11% growth is expected in the SREB states during the same period.

Volusia County H. S. Graduates & Projected Graduates 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 20101995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2,466 2,480 2,438 2,598 2,718 3,234 3,263 2,905 2,656 3,418 3,417

3,760 3,614

3,710 3,558

3,739 3,710

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Income and Education
Volusia County 1999 Household Income Less than $10,000 9.3% (17,264)
Income 1999
Income < $10,000
20 - 96 97 - 178 179 - 277 278 - 404 405 - 599

Your total annual income from work
$9,999 or less $10,000 - $14,999 $15,000-$19,999 $20,000-$29,999 $30,000-$39,999 $40,000-$49,999 $50,000-$59,999 $60,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000 or more Prefer not to respond

DBCC *2003 39.6% 15.0% 10.3% 12.4% 2.9% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3%

DBCC *2005 47.3% 12.9% 10.9% 8.0% 3.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.9%

Primary Locations: Orange City, Holly Hill, Daytona Beach, Port Orange & New Smyrna Beach

Source: Faces of the Future 2003 & 2005

In 2004, 8.3%- (16,519) Volusia County households have income less than $10,000.
Census Tracts 908.02, 812, 817, 821, 822.01, 823.01, 829.01 12

Income Challenges - Affordability
Student Fees Fall Report August 2005 Term Student Fees Per Academic Year Residents - State Residents - State - PSAV & Voc Prep Residents – DBCC – Residents - DBCC - PSAV & Voc Prep Non-Residents - State Non-Residents - State - PSAV & Voc Prep Non-Residents – DBCC – Rank Non-Residents - DBCC - PSAV & Voc Prep Fall 2004 $1,777 $1,520 $1,825 $1,565 $6,566 $6,173 $6,850 $6,258 Fall 2005 $1,915 $1,608 $1,983 $1,687 $7,011 $6,497 $7,740 $6,738 $ $138 $88 $158 $122 $445 $324 $890 $480 Increase % 7.74% 5.76% 8.68% 7.84% 6.77% 5.24% 12.99% 7.67%

Residents DBCC college credit –ranked 5th for percentage increase (tied for 3rd with 6 other colleges for actual fee cost for Fall 2005) DBCC PSAV & Voc Prep –ranked 4th for percentage increase (tied for 1st with 6 other colleges for actual fee cost Fall 2005) Non Residents DBCC college credit –ranked 5th for percentage increase (tied for 2nd with 1 other college for actual fee cost for Fall 2005) DBCC PSAV & Voc Prep –ranked 3rd for percentage increase (tied for 1st with 5 other colleges for actual fee cost Fall 2005)

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Financing Education
DBCC Financial Aid Awards 2002 Grants $11,659,270 2005 $11,729,187 $ $69,917 Increase % 0.60%

Loans

$12,559,094

$14,825,102

$2,266,008

15.28%
Financial Aid Award

59.8% rely on financial aid (includes grants, scholarships and college loans 25% DBCC students rely on their own income or savings
$15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0

Source: Faces of the Future 2005

2002 Grants Loans

2005

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Poverty Issues
Volusia County Poverty Status in 1999 was 11.6% (49,907)

Estimated Poverty Status Volusia County 2004

75 years and over 65 to 74 years 55 to 64 years 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years 25 to 34 years 18 to 24 years 16 and 17 years 15 years 12 to 14 years 6 to 11 years

3.1% 6.0% 14.0% 11.7% 8.3% 16.6% 13.0% 3.2% 1.0% 5.0% 10.1% 1.0% 7.1% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Census Tracts: 817, 821, & 906

5 years Under 5 years

0.0%

Northeast & Southwest Volusia Census Tracts/Street Locations – DeLand, Holly Hill & Daytona Beach Areas

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15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

10.0% 8.7%

0.0% 23.6% 22.5% 6.8%6.9% 10.9% 8.1%9.2% 5.6% 9.7% 0.0% 7.6% 5.1% 5.4% 14.4% 11.8% 10.8% 9.9% 9.8% 7.5% 6.1% 10.7% 9.4% 16.5% 19.0% 17.2% 18.3%

5.0%

45.7% Percent below poverty level:

33.6%

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Summary
Progress
 More students are staying in college and graduating.  Black and Hispanic students accounted for almost half of the total increase in bachelor’s degrees in the SREB region.  The costs of college are now a bigger challenge for middle- and lower- income students.  Rising costs have created an affordability gap – or shortfall – for many families.  Demographic shifts mean that there will be many more middle- and lower- income young people seeking a way to attend college in the future. This trend, if continued, points to a coming collision between population changes and affordable colleges.

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Summary

Facts

 By 2018, Hispanic students are expected to account for 29% of public hs grads. White students, who represented 62% in 2002, will be 45%.  Progress in education could come to an historically unprecedented halt if the fastest-growing racial/ethnic groups do not achieve much higher education levels than are now the case.  Already in nearly every SREB state, hundreds of thousands of young, working-age adults have no high school diplomas or GED credentials. Those number will grow dramatically if present levels continue.  Black and Hispanic students will represent nearly half of the region’s hs grads in the future.  Population growth is expected to be the greatest for precisely those racial/ethnic groups who have been the least likely to go to college and who face the largest affordability gaps in paying to attend. Many more young, undereducated, working-age adults are on the way unless we change the path that we are on.  Jobs in the U.S. for people with associate’s degrees are projected to increase by 26% (1.3 million) by 2012 and for those with bachelor’s degrees, by 20% (3.6 million) – both surpassing the overall U.S. job growth rate.  Government budget pressures to fund social welfare programs such as Medicare and Medicaid are one of the growing challenges to education progress.
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Sources used for this presentation:
U.S. Census Bureau 2000 American Community Survey 2004 Estimates Faces of the Future Survey Results 2005 Division of Community Colleges Minority Enrollment Report September 2005 Fall 2005 Student Fees Report August 2005 SREB Fact Book on Higher Education June 2005

Need more information:
Contact: Cassandra Myers Office of Institutional Research Daytona Beach Community College E-mail: myersca@dbcc.edu Phone: 386-506-3691 Location: Building 100, Room 413L
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