estimates by Levone

VIEWS: 59 PAGES: 9

									Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

1991 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

1992 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

2,655.5 47.1 216.6 2,391.9 38.1 85.3 0.0362 123.3 46.2 37.4 77.2 24.6 2.2 16.4 1.5 21.8 8.2

2,714.5 44.3 220.6 2,449.6 57.7 125.8 0.0526 183.5 67.7 36.9 115.8 44.5 4.0 31.1 2.8 23.9 13.4

2,737.0 42.4 222.1 2,472.4 22.8 130.4 0.0532 153.2 45.8 29.9 107.5 6.7 0.6 -5.0 -0.4 24.5 11.7

2,788.8 40.2 222.0 2,526.5 54.1 118.8 0.0481 173.0 94.8 54.8 78.2 39.9 3.5 30.3 2.7 21.1 9.7

2,828.1 38.8 219.2 2,570.1 43.6 186.5 0.0738 230.1 164.2 71.4 65.9 31.5 2.7 20.9 1.8 16.7 10.6

2,859.3 36.9 218.8 2,603.6 33.5 213.6 0.0831 247.2 131.4 53.2 115.8 15.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 25.3 14.8

2,911.9 34.9 220.0 2,657.1 53.4 175.7 0.0675 229.1 140.9 61.5 88.3 41.4 3.5 29.2 2.5 21.3 12.2

2,954.4 32.2 217.1 2,705.1 48.0 237.9 0.0895 285.9 185.0 64.7 100.9 26.9 2.2 12.8 1.1 26.8 14.0

7.6 1.3 25.9 9.5

10.3 3.4 45.4 14.2

7.1 0.9 37.9 8.7

9.1 -0.8 19.2 8.9

14.6 -3.4 13.7 11.8

13.7 -1.1 39.8 13.2

10.0 0.6 16.8 11.2

15.4 -3.5 26.4 12.5

(22) (23) (24) (25)

55.2 46.0 4.7 4.5

91.1 77.0 8.7 5.4

76.8 67.7 5.4 3.7

46.4 38.8 2.7 4.9

38.7 30.2 2.1 6.3

78.6 67.3 5.1 6.2

47.3 38.3 3.1 6.0

59.5 50.4 1.4 7.7

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

3.0 0.4 3.1 22.2 5.6 0.6 19.8

4.8 0.6 4.6 33.0 8.9 0.9 33.2

2.6 0.3 3.1 21.6 7.6 0.8 28.8

2.0 0.3 2.7 18.5 4.9 0.5 16.9

2.5 0.3 3.0 19.7 4.1 0.4 13.4

3.6 0.5 3.8 24.5 7.6 0.7 28.7

2.9 0.4 3.1 19.3 4.8 0.5 16.7

2.6 0.3 3.2 19.2 5.8 0.5 21.7

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

8.5 0.9

13.7 1.4

10.2 1.0

6.9 0.7

6.6 0.6

11.2 1.1

7.7 0.7

8.5 0.8

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

1993 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

1994 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

2,964.5 28.2 215.6 2,720.8 15.7 166.5 0.0616 182.2 103.3 56.7 78.9 2.2 0.2 -7.4 -0.6 20.9 9.6

3,018.8 28.1 215.4 2,775.2 54.4 246.8 0.0907 301.3 210.8 70.0 90.4 43.7 3.6 30.1 2.5 19.9 13.6

3,071.4 29.6 214.4 2,827.4 52.2 251.9 0.0908 304.1 191.8 63.1 112.3 36.0 2.9 21.4 1.7 25.1 14.6

3,113.8 30.0 210.4 2,873.4 46.0 303.5 0.1074 349.6 247.6 70.8 101.9 25.5 2.0 11.1 0.9 26.9 14.4

3,145.5 30.2 208.7 2,906.6 33.1 232.9 0.0811 266.0 162.4 61.0 103.6 14.2 1.1 1.9 0.2 27.8 12.3

3,193.1 31.7 214.1 2,947.3 40.8 161.6 0.0556 202.3 69.5 34.4 132.8 27.2 2.1 14.0 1.1 29.6 13.2

3,243.9 34.8 219.1 2,989.9 42.6 103.0 0.0349 145.6 31.2 21.4 114.4 31.2 2.4 20.7 1.6 27.1 10.5

3,291.5 36.4 221.8 3,033.3 43.4 83.0 0.0278 126.4 29.0 23.0 97.3 29.5 2.2 21.0 1.6 27.5 8.5

9.8 -2.2 20.1 8.2

16.6 -0.8 13.9 16.4

14.1 -1.8 26.7 13.1

16.5 -4.7 19.6 12.5

14.8 -2.4 30.9 13.1

10.0 4.7 36.6 15.4

6.5 4.3 23.3 11.5

6.5 2.0 15.8 9.2

(22) (23) (24) (25)

44.3 37.8 2.4 4.1

47.8 34.8 5.6 7.4

63.2 52.6 3.5 7.0

50.7 42.2 -0.1 8.6

63.3 52.7 3.7 7.0

79.1 63.3 11.4 4.4

57.9 45.1 9.9 2.9

42.9 32.8 7.2 2.9

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

2.1 0.3 2.3 13.3 4.4 0.4 15.8

4.3 0.5 4.4 24.2 5.2 0.5 15.7

3.8 0.5 3.7 19.5 6.0 0.5 22.4

2.6 0.3 3.1 16.2 4.8 0.4 18.1

3.7 0.4 3.7 19.0 6.0 0.5 22.3

6.1 0.7 5.1 26.2 7.8 0.7 26.9

5.0 0.5 4.2 21.0 5.9 0.5 19.2

3.7 0.4 3.4 16.9 4.6 0.4 14.0

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

6.5 0.6

9.6 0.9

9.7 0.9

7.4 0.6

9.7 0.8

13.9 1.2

10.9 0.9

8.3 0.7

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

1995 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

1996 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

3,319.7 35.3 224.6 3,059.8 26.5 65.7 0.0216 92.1 20.3 22.1 71.8 20.2 1.5 14.0 1.0 20.2 6.2

3,369.5 35.1 232.1 3,102.3 42.5 100.5 0.0328 143.0 35.0 24.5 108.0 37.1 2.8 27.0 2.0 24.3 10.0

3,426.2 36.8 236.4 3,153.0 50.7 130.2 0.0420 180.9 62.3 34.4 118.6 41.4 3.1 29.7 2.2 25.3 11.7

3,459.2 35.9 237.5 3,185.9 32.8 138.2 0.0438 171.0 65.2 38.2 105.8 18.7 1.4 8.7 0.6 27.1 10.0

3,508.8 36.7 237.8 3,234.3 48.5 150.8 0.0473 199.2 112.2 56.3 87.1 38.8 2.8 29.2 2.1 22.3 9.6

3,568.4 39.7 248.0 3,280.7 46.4 175.8 0.0543 222.1 77.4 34.8 144.8 39.5 2.8 25.1 1.8 29.6 14.4

3,633.5 44.2 253.9 3,335.4 54.6 148.5 0.0453 203.1 54.8 27.0 148.3 40.9 2.9 26.8 1.9 32.2 14.1

3,682.8 41.4 262.6 3,378.8 43.5 126.0 0.0378 169.5 60.4 35.7 109.0 35.1 2.4 25.0 1.7 29.8 10.1

4.5 2.1 8.4 7.3

5.6 6.7 21.2 13.1

7.5 3.6 24.3 11.9

7.1 0.2 18.8 8.1

11.6 -0.5 15.8 11.9

13.3 9.4 41.0 23.5

11.4 5.1 41.1 17.3

9.4 7.8 15.4 18.0

(22) (23) (24) (25)

28.5 20.5 5.9 2.0

55.9 41.7 11.3 3.0

61.1 48.2 8.8 4.1

47.9 39.2 4.7 3.9

43.0 32.1 5.2 5.7

93.7 69.4 17.9 6.4

89.7 71.1 13.1 5.6

54.0 35.2 13.7 5.1

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

3.2 0.3 2.8 13.9 3.1 0.3 8.5

5.1 0.5 4.8 23.7 6.2 0.5 17.9

4.8 0.5 4.4 21.5 6.2 0.5 20.4

3.1 0.3 3.1 14.8 4.8 0.4 16.2

4.0 0.3 3.9 18.5 4.3 0.3 13.8

8.5 0.7 8.3 38.4 10.2 0.8 30.2

6.6 0.6 6.4 29.4 9.2 0.7 30.1

6.2 0.5 6.4 28.9 7.0 0.5 15.8

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

6.3 0.5

11.4 0.9

11.0 0.9

7.9 0.6

8.3 0.6

18.7 1.4

15.8 1.2

13.2 1.0

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

1997 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

1998 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

3,728.5 38.2 268.8 3,421.5 42.7 126.5 0.0374 169.2 69.4 41.0 99.8 34.7 2.4 25.1 1.7 27.3 9.5

3,783.1 40.2 280.8 3,462.1 40.6 150.1 0.0439 190.7 59.1 31.0 131.5 38.2 2.6 25.4 1.7 27.7 12.8

3,875.8 41.7 290.6 3,543.5 81.4 165.4 0.0478 246.8 99.5 40.3 147.2 74.5 5.0 59.3 3.9 30.2 15.2

3,917.6 43.0 297.0 3,577.6 34.1 200.6 0.0566 234.8 102.6 43.7 132.1 22.2 1.5 9.0 0.6 32.2 13.2

3,986.1 43.9 298.0 3,644.1 66.5 227.4 0.0636 293.9 195.7 66.6 98.2 58.9 3.8 46.5 3.0 22.8 12.4

4,076.8 45.4 301.7 3,729.7 85.6 312.0 0.0856 397.6 216.7 54.5 180.9 70.4 4.4 49.9 3.1 33.5 20.6

4,168.5 48.4 305.9 3,814.3 84.6 291.4 0.0781 376.0 201.3 53.5 174.7 68.3 4.2 49.0 3.0 35.4 19.3

4,274.3 49.8 309.9 3,914.5 100.2 326.4 0.0856 426.6 285.4 66.9 141.2 86.5 5.3 68.9 4.2 33.1 17.7

11.1 5.4 20.1 17.3

11.3 11.2 25.3 23.3

14.3 8.9 33.8 24.0

11.9 5.5 27.4 18.3

18.8 0.1 13.2 19.8

25.6 2.8 53.6 29.3

21.8 3.2 42.7 26.0

26.4 3.1 23.3 30.5

(22) (23) (24) (25)

55.2 37.8 11.5 5.8

74.5 49.6 18.8 6.1

88.1 63.0 17.1 8.0

70.2 51.4 12.2 6.6

49.3 31.4 8.9 9.0

118.3 89.7 15.1 13.5

102.1 76.4 13.4 12.3

77.9 50.0 13.6 14.3

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

6.0 0.5 6.0 26.8 6.4 0.5 16.7

8.6 0.7 8.5 37.4 9.0 0.7 22.3

8.3 0.6 8.5 37.4 10.2 0.7 27.7

6.3 0.5 6.5 28.3 7.9 0.6 22.2

6.2 0.5 6.3 27.4 5.7 0.4 14.5

9.4 0.7 9.8 42.4 12.4 0.9 39.2

8.6 0.6 8.9 38.0 10.8 0.7 33.5

9.3 0.7 9.6 40.6 9.0 0.6 23.4

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

12.4 0.9

17.6 1.3

18.5 1.3

14.2 1.0

11.9 0.8

21.8 1.5

19.4 1.3

18.3 1.2

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

1999 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2000 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

4,364.3 51.6 311.1 4,001.6 87.1 330.6 0.0845 417.7 258.7 61.9 159.0 65.8 4.0 47.6 2.9 38.1 18.2

4,472.8 54.0 313.7 4,105.1 103.5 275.0 0.0687 378.6 170.1 44.9 208.5 81.6 4.9 60.2 3.6 40.5 21.3

4,604.9 57.6 326.3 4,221.0 115.9 195.2 0.0475 311.1 101.7 32.7 209.4 103.8 6.2 83.7 5.0 41.0 20.1

4,699.6 60.5 334.3 4,304.7 83.7 170.3 0.0404 254.0 81.2 32.0 172.8 64.3 3.8 49.1 2.9 44.1 15.3

4,771.0 63.0 349.3 4,358.7 54.0 192.8 0.0448 246.8 77.1 31.3 169.7 44.3 2.5 29.1 1.7 41.6 15.2

4,894.9 65.7 370.3 4,458.9 100.2 186.5 0.0428 286.7 73.3 25.6 213.4 97.0 5.4 77.1 4.3 41.5 19.9

5,021.5 69.0 389.1 4,563.3 104.4 189.7 0.0426 294.2 76.0 25.8 218.1 98.0 5.4 77.5 4.3 42.7 20.5

5,126.5 70.4 407.9 4,648.2 84.9 234.8 0.0515 319.7 109.3 34.2 210.5 69.8 3.8 50.5 2.8 51.6 19.3

32.8 0.2 51.6 33.9

24.7 1.6 62.2 27.3

20.4 11.6 60.5 33.0

19.0 7.0 39.4 27.1

21.0 13.9 52.1 35.9

20.0 19.9 60.4 41.0

20.4 17.8 61.9 39.2

24.2 17.6 62.6 43.0

(22) (23) (24) (25)

112.1 80.9 14.7 16.5

131.7 103.6 14.4 13.7

136.6 101.2 24.9 10.5

98.6 69.7 21.9 7.0

120.1 82.9 30.1 7.1

147.7 103.4 36.5 7.8

151.1 108.3 34.3 8.5

150.6 105.4 33.9 11.3

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

10.2 0.7 10.7 44.2 12.0 0.8 36.0

9.9 0.7 9.8 39.5 12.6 0.8 44.3

11.4 0.8 11.9 47.2 15.6 1.0 43.9

9.2 0.6 9.7 37.9 12.2 0.8 30.3

12.5 0.8 12.4 47.4 14.2 0.9 35.9

14.8 1.0 14.7 55.3 17.3 1.0 44.9

14.1 0.9 14.2 52.8 17.6 1.0 46.6

15.4 0.9 15.1 55.3 17.0 1.0 45.8

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

22.2 1.5

22.6 1.4

27.0 1.7

21.4 1.3

26.7 1.6

32.2 1.9

31.7 1.9

32.3 1.9

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

2001 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2002 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

5,222.2 74.7 411.4 4,736.1 87.8 295.9 0.0637 383.7 230.4 60.0 153.4 74.4 4.0 57.5 3.1 35.2 16.9

5,395.5 78.0 428.5 4,888.9 152.9 454.7 0.0960 607.6 363.1 59.8 244.4 142.0 7.7 114.1 6.2 46.7 27.9

5,555.4 80.0 440.9 5,034.5 145.6 443.0 0.0906 588.6 323.8 55.0 264.8 125.4 6.6 96.8 5.1 51.9 28.6

5,678.0 80.9 446.6 5,150.6 116.1 589.9 0.1172 705.9 501.2 71.0 204.7 89.3 4.7 64.2 3.4 52.6 25.2

5,826.2 80.7 452.2 5,293.3 142.8 529.0 0.1027 671.8 452.4 67.3 219.5 117.7 6.1 91.6 4.7 51.6 26.1

6,015.0 81.6 477.7 5,455.7 162.4 401.0 0.0758 563.4 299.9 53.2 263.5 160.8 8.2 132.2 6.7 48.7 28.6

6,225.1 84.1 498.0 5,643.0 187.3 556.9 0.1021 744.2 509.5 68.5 234.7 184.3 9.4 154.7 7.9 45.9 29.6

6,437.4 84.3 500.7 5,852.3 209.3 860.9 0.1526 1,070.2 837.2 78.2 233.0 179.7 9.1 146.3 7.4 56.5 33.3

30.6 2.4 35.0 34.1

55.8 15.9 74.6 72.9

50.1 11.2 87.1 62.5

53.4 4.4 45.8 59.0

68.6 4.3 71.2 74.3

49.0 24.2 74.6 74.5

48.9 19.0 48.9 69.2

69.5 1.3 51.4 72.2

(22) (23) (24) (25)

99.3 65.9 17.5 15.9

200.9 128.7 40.4 31.8

209.2 146.4 33.1 29.6

145.1 89.9 21.6 33.5

190.8 120.3 31.1 39.4

210.7 134.7 45.8 30.1

174.3 106.9 35.2 32.1

175.5 111.1 17.7 46.7

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

9.9 0.6 11.3 40.8 12.3 0.7 29.4

22.7 1.3 24.0 85.8 23.8 1.4 59.4

17.3 1.0 20.7 72.9 25.8 1.5 64.6

13.9 0.8 18.3 63.4 20.5 1.1 42.7

20.0 1.1 23.4 79.5 24.0 1.3 55.7

20.4 1.1 24.7 82.1 28.8 1.6 60.9

18.6 1.0 22.2 72.2 23.6 1.3 49.7

14.5 0.7 21.4 68.1 25.1 1.3 51.7

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

22.2 1.3

46.4 2.6

43.1 2.4

34.4 1.9

44.0 2.4

49.3 2.7

42.2 2.3

39.6 2.1

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

2003 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2004 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

6,602.7 86.2 516.4 6,000.1 147.7 840.5 0.1436 988.2 765.1 77.4 223.1 137.1 6.9 106.0 5.3 52.1 31.1

6,843.1 88.3 536.1 6,218.7 218.6 1,049.1 0.1748 1,267.7 975.7 77.0 292.0 209.1 10.3 167.1 8.3 56.4 42.0

7,068.5 90.6 559.2 6,418.7 200.1 1,151.7 0.1852 1,351.7 984.2 72.8 367.6 183.0 8.9 133.1 6.4 69.1 50.0

7,227.8 94.0 592.6 6,541.2 122.5 623.3 0.0971 745.8 434.6 58.3 311.2 112.1 5.4 78.0 3.7 73.9 34.1

7,449.3 99.2 617.6 6,732.5 191.3 468.0 0.0716 659.3 418.6 63.5 240.7 190.8 9.0 162.8 7.7 56.6 28.0

7,732.9 104.1 671.7 6,957.1 224.5 688.4 0.1022 912.9 539.9 59.1 373.0 241.3 11.2 198.5 9.2 69.5 42.8

8,024.7 111.1 727.4 7,186.2 229.1 489.6 0.0704 718.7 329.6 45.9 389.1 244.4 11.2 204.3 9.4 73.8 40.1

8,284.2 117.5 772.6 7,394.0 207.9 554.4 0.0772 762.3 420.1 55.1 342.2 208.7 9.3 172.9 7.7 78.9 35.9

65.1 14.3 64.5 80.8

65.2 18.2 75.8 84.9

103.7 21.5 120.4 126.7

62.6 31.8 88.9 96.0

59.4 23.4 56.1 84.4

89.8 52.3 101.7 143.8

61.5 54.0 112.9 117.2

76.4 43.5 88.4 121.7

(22) (23) (24) (25)

198.1 124.5 30.8 42.8

238.5 160.9 32.7 44.9

347.3 227.6 59.2 60.5

264.5 168.3 62.1 34.1

205.7 121.8 50.4 33.5

351.0 204.0 99.4 47.5

330.0 205.6 91.1 33.3

292.0 166.0 83.1 42.8

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

18.9 0.9 24.3 75.6 26.8 1.4 57.4

20.1 1.0 25.6 77.8 30.2 1.6 71.5

32.4 1.6 39.1 116.0 44.0 2.3 102.9

25.1 1.2 30.9 89.6 37.1 1.9 75.4

20.2 1.0 27.0 76.2 32.1 1.6 54.9

39.9 1.9 47.0 129.5 50.8 2.5 94.3

32.8 1.5 39.5 106.4 47.5 2.3 90.4

34.2 1.6 40.4 106.4 42.8 2.0 77.1

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

45.8 2.4

50.4 2.6

76.5 3.9

62.3 3.2

52.3 2.6

90.7 4.5

80.2 3.9

77.0 3.7

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

2005 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2006 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

8,483.9 125.0 800.9 7,558.0 164.0 539.8 0.0730 703.7 387.1 55.0 316.7 154.1 6.9 121.3 5.4 73.6 32.9

8,784.0 135.2 849.7 7,799.1 241.0 574.4 0.0760 815.5 358.8 44.0 456.7 242.5 10.7 195.2 8.6 83.7 47.3

9,081.3 144.7 878.4 8,058.2 259.1 623.9 0.0800 883.1 415.0 47.0 468.0 237.9 10.5 189.0 8.3 87.5 48.9

9,344.9 155.6 908.1 8,281.1 222.9 596.3 0.0740 819.2 417.8 51.0 401.4 198.8 8.5 157.5 6.8 92.2 41.3

9,653.1 168.5 936.7 8,547.9 266.7 430.6 0.0520 697.4 362.6 52.0 334.7 251.1 10.6 217.8 9.2 83.4 33.3

9,966.4 179.7 987.7 8,798.9 251.1 589.8 0.0690 840.9 386.8 46.0 454.1 254.0 10.6 208.1 8.7 88.1 45.9

10,216.7 189.7 1,023.8 9,003.2 204.3 571.9 0.0650 776.2 349.3 45.0 426.9 192.7 8.0 150.5 6.2 88.9 42.2

10,421.4 196.8 1,054.3 9,170.3 167.1 567.2 0.0630 734.3 374.5 51.0 359.8 155.5 6.3 119.6 4.9 84.7 35.9

75.4 26.4 96.7 103.7

73.9 46.9 144.6 122.7

91.8 26.8 145.0 120.5

107.0 27.7 119.9 136.7

87.4 26.5 93.7 116.0

89.4 48.9 135.4 140.4

78.9 33.8 116.6 114.9

80.5 28.3 90.9 111.0

(22) (23) (24) (25)

278.8 172.2 64.2 42.5

395.9 263.1 90.9 41.8

399.3 268.8 77.3 53.3

363.2 220.4 83.5 59.4

291.7 170.8 66.8 54.1

389.8 238.8 96.4 54.6

331.1 205.6 74.5 51.0

278.5 160.6 67.4 50.5

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

29.6 1.3 34.5 89.0 37.0 1.7 76.9

37.8 1.7 42.5 107.1 49.2 2.3 112.2

38.6 1.7 42.4 104.2 46.0 2.1 114.7

37.3 1.6 45.9 110.2 51.0 2.3 99.7

51.0 2.2 40.8 95.4 18.7 0.8 81.0

44.6 2.0 48.6 110.5 48.8 2.1 107.8

41.0 1.8 41.1 90.8 36.1 1.5 92.4

37.1 1.6 38.6 83.1 33.1 1.4 75.5

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

66.6 3.1

86.9 4.0

84.6 3.8

88.3 4.0

69.7 3.1

93.4 4.1

77.0 3.3

70.3 3.0

Estimates of Mortgage Originations Calculated from Data on Loans Outstanding and Repayments (billions of dollars, except where noted; not seasonally adjusted)

Q1

2007 Q2

Q3

Q4

All Mortgagees (1) 1-4 mortgage debt outstanding, end of quarter (2) Construction loans (3) Home equity loans (4) Regular mortgages (5) Change (6) Repayments (7) Repayment rate [(6)/(4){t-1}] (8) Total originations (9) Refinance originations (10) Refinance share (percent) (11) Purchase originations (12) Gross equity extraction (13) As a percent of disposable income (14) Net equity extraction (15) As a percent of disposable income (16) Memo: Originations to purchase new homes (17) Closing costs Components of Gross Equity Extraction: (18) Gross cash out (19) Change in home equity debt outstanding - unscheduled payments (20) Originations to finance purchases of existing homes minus sellers' debt cancellation ("home turnover extraction") (21) Memo: "Active MEW" [(3)-(3){t-1}+(18)] Distribution of Equity Extraction to Consumer Spending, Home improvements, Investments, and Debt Repayment Free cash resulting from equity extraction Home sales Home equity loans net of unscheduled payments Cash out refinancings Used For: Repayment of non-mortgage debt As a percentage of consumer credit debt outstanding Home improvements As a percentage of outlays for residential improvements (NIPA) Personal consumption expenditures As a percentage of total PCE Acquisition of assets and other

10,614.4 201.9 1,063.0 9,349.5 179.1 490.6 0.0535 669.7 375.1 56.0 294.7 166.2 6.6 135.5 5.4 65.2 30.7

10,835.5 201.7 1,087.7 9,546.0 196.6 589.0 0.0630 785.6 392.8 50.0 392.8 199.9 7.9 159.2 6.3 66.4 40.7

11,027.9 205.3 1,111.6 9,711.0 165.0 505.9 0.0530 670.9 301.9 45.0 369.0 170.0 6.6 133.0 5.2 65.1 37.0

76.4 6.4 71.1 85.1

75.8 22.4 105.1 100.5

59.2 21.5 98.2 83.0

(22) (23) (24) (25)

216.3 126.5 41.4 48.3

285.1 175.0 63.8 46.4

256.0 163.1 56.3 36.5

(26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

27.9 1.2 29.9 63.3 25.2 1.1 59.0

31.4 1.3 35.8 75.5 36.8 1.5 78.5

27.6 1.1 30.3 65.3 31.3 1.3 71.2

Memo: (33) PCE plus non-mortgage debt repayment (34) As a percentage of total PCE

53.2 2.2

68.2 2.8

58.9 2.4


								
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