Module 1 Introduction BCN 1582 International Sustainable Development Basic Info about BCN 1582 • Meets I (International) and S (Social) General Education Requirements • Required for UF BCN students • Divided into 4 modules • Instructors: Charles Kibert • Meets Tue (6-7) and Thu (6) in Rinker 110 • Attendance is mandatory • Class website: web.dcp.ufl.edu/ckibert – UF Classes • BCN 1582 International Sustainable Development • Review Syllabus Why BCN 1582? • Humankind is rapidly depleting the Earth‟s resources and deteriorating its ecosystems • The rate of depletion and destruction is accelerating • The economy is predicated on cheap resources and cheap disposal of waste • The value of the planet‟s ecosystems to human social systems and its economy are not considered • Question: How do we change course before we selfdestruct? • Answer: Redesign our economy and change our attitudes to account for the critical role the environment plays in all aspects of our life. What Should You Get Out of this Course? • Understand the concept of sustainable development or “sustainability” • Learn about the changes in human activities that are forecast: in industry, communities, in countries around the world • Learn about the opportunities that sustainability presents for the future • Learn new terminology: The Natural Step, ISO 14000, DFE, deconstruction, carrying capacity The Theme • Natural capital and resources are being rapidly destroyed and depleted • Three lessons: – Factors that increase by a fixed %/year have fixed doubling times – The earth is essentially a closed system – Exponentially increasing mass of humanity can cause planetary-scale disruptions • The human race cannot sustain its growth and behavior • Result: Changed patterns or destruction Rule of 72 • Small % changes can grow exponentially • To get the Doubling Time (DT), given a specified annual % growth rate, divide 72 by the annual % growth rate or change. • E.g. If the interest on a Certificate of Deposit (CD) is 6%, the time it takes to double the money is 72/6 = 12 years. • The growth rate of the earth‟s population is 1.7%. How much time will it take before the earth has a population of 12 billion people? ANSWER 72/1.7 = 42.4 years ! (2043) How much time until there are 24 billion people? Another 42.4 years! The year 2086. And so on! Some Basic Things to Note • Sustainability means “..to continue at the same pace” or “to last indefinitely.” • The question is with our current rate of resource depletion and environmental degradation, is the human species “sustainable” ? • The basic issues for sustainability are population and consumption Basic World Views • Anthropocentric: – “Human” centered – Nature exists for mankind – Substitutability • Gaia (James Lovelock) – Earth is a living system – Natural systems have rights Sustainability & Development • • • • What does “sustain” mean? What is “development”? How does development differ from growth? Is there such a thing as “sustainable growth”? Sustainable Development Some formal definitions ... is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (World Commission on Env and Dev, 1987 -- Our Common Future, the Brundtland Report) ... is non-declining human well-being over time. – Intergenerational justice – Total capital stock must be non-declining – Critical natural capital • assimilative capacity for industrial waste • biodiversity • fertile soil Pearce.D et al., The Economics of Sustain. Dev., Annu. Rev. Energy Env. 1994, 19:457-74 The Systems Natural (N) Social (S) Economic (E) Systems Character ProtoSustainable N E S Systems Character - Economics Driven N S E True Systems Character E S N Back to the Basic Problem • Population and consumption are making life unsustainable • The IPAT formula (from Paul Ehrlich): Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology =people x materials/person x impact/materials Consumption Worldwide Consumption per Person CO2 emissions (tonnes/year) Purchasing power ($US/year) Vehicles per 100 people Paper consumption (Kg/year) Fossil energy use (Gigajoules/year) Fresh water withdrawals (m3/year) Canada 15.2 19,320 47 247 250 1,688 USA 19.5 22,130 57 317 287 1,868 India 0.81 1,150 0.2 2 5 612 World 4.2 3,800 10 44 56 644 Ecological Footprint (hectares/person) 4.3 5.1 0.4 1.8 Table 2.4 Consumption characteristics and Ecological Footprints of various countries and world average (Wackernagel and Rees 1996) Human Impacts on Natural Systems • Depletion – Soil, non-renewable resources • Destruction – Biodiversity, renewable resources, waste assimilative capacity, ozone layer • Appropriation – Net Primary Production (NPP), fresh water • Modification – Agriculture, extractive industries, built environment • Pollution and Toxification – Water, air, land Critical Environmental Problems • • • • • • Loss of Biodiversity Polluted Air and Water Destruction of Productive Ecosystems Loss of Productive Soil Greenhouse Warming Ozone Depletion Summary: Loss of Critical Natural Capital What is capital? • Historically, it is money, machinery, buildings • Other important forms: – Human capital – Natural capital – Critical Natural Capital • Side note: all the „stuff‟ of the human economy is produced by natural systems or extracted from the earth. • Question: What does this imply for the future? Worth of Ecosystem • Costanza et al 1997, “The value of the world‟s ecosytem goods and services,” Nature, 387:253-260. – Pollination, Raw Materials Production, Water Supply, Waste Recycling & Pollution Control, Recreation & Education, Climate and Atmosphere Regulation, Soil Formation and Erosion Control, Control of Pests & Diseases • Value of services: US$16 to $US54 trillion • World GNP: US$18 trillion • Ecosystem-to-GNP ratio 1.8 Services Provided by Natural Systems • Air quality enhancement • Soils for food, wood, paper production • Ambient temperature enhancement • Dampening flood peaks • Filtering/recharging groundwater • Erosion control • Renewable energy • Pollination • Evaportranspiration • Food and water for wildlife • Pest control • Recreation and tourism • Grazing for domesticated animals • Noise barriers and separation • Natural fires • Carbon, energy, water storage • Hazard reduction Exhaustion of Natural Resources • Rainforest loss: 1 acre per second • Annual temperate forest loss: 4 million hectares (Siberia), 1 million hectares (Canada) • Forests: 40% (1,000 years ago) 30% (1900) 20% (today) • Loss of 20% of all species by 2030 • Grain production: 465 MT (1987) 229 MT (1996) • Fisheries: 22 MT (1950) 100 MT (1987) 90 MT (1995) • Movement of more material than natural forces • Loss of 24 billion tons of topsoil annually Oil Crisis 1974 Resource Consumption Patterns Hubbert‟s Pimple - Oil Consumption Correlation CO2 and Temperature CO2 Concentration vs. Time Contributions to Global Warming Gas Carbon Dioxide Methane CFC’s Tropospheric Ozone Nitrous Oxide Percent Contribution 50 19 17 8 4 Measures of Welfare • • • • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross National Product (GNP) Measure all throughput in the economy But also count: – – – – Exxon Valdez accident Depletion of forests Environmental disasters Human misery Alternative Measures of Welfare • Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) • Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) • Human Development Index (HDI) Human Development Index • Created by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) • A composite of three indicators – Longevity: life expectancy – Knowledge: literacy, years of schooling – Standard of Living: purchasing power based on GDP/capita Genuine Progress Indicator • Developed by non-profit: Redefining Progress • Starts with real personal consumption, adjusts for income distribution • Subtracts: – – – – – – – Crime & Divorce Resource depletion Environmental Damage Income Distribution Pollution Lifespan of durable goods & public infrastructure Dependence on foreign assets • Adds: – Value of household work and parenting – Value of volunteer work INDEX OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC WELFARE – U.S., 1990 (Constant billion $ of 1972 Personal income adjusted for income distribution +services for household labor +services of consumer durable goods +services of highways and streets +consumption public spending on health/education -consumer spending on durable goods -defensive private spending on health and education -cost of commuting and auto accidents -cost of personal pollution control $1,164 +520 +225 +18 +45 -225 -63 -67 -5 -cost of air, water, and noise pollution -lost of wetlands and farmland -depletion of natural resources -long term damage from nuclear wastes, ozone depletion, and greenhouse gases +net capital growth +/- net international investment position INDEX OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC WELFARE -39 -58 -313 -371 +29 -34 $818 A New Economy for a New Century • At the start of the 21st Century – Human population is 4x greater than in 1900 – World economy is 17x larger – CO2 concentrations at highest level in 160,000 years • Western economic model is in trouble – Fossil-fuel based – Automobile-centered – Throwaway approach • Shift to an environmentally sustainable economy is needed, as profound a change as the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th Century Bursts of Change • First: Development of technology sped up 40,000 years ago: tools for hunting, cooking, other essential tasks, population of 4,000,000 • Second: Fertile Crescent, 10,000 years ago: transformation of agriculture, sophisticated tools and social structures, emergence of towns and cities – Population jumps: 27,000,000 in 2,000 BC, 100 million at start of Christian era, 350 million in 1000 AD • Third: Industrial Revolution in 18th Century Population reaches 1 billion in 1825 Changes since Start of 20th Century • Oil: – 1900: a few thousand barrels/day – 1997: 72 million barrels/day • Metals: – 1900: 20 million tons/year – 1999: 1.2 billion tons/year • Plastic: – 1900: none – 1999: 281 million tons/year • Paper: sixfold increase 1950-1996 (281 million tons) Mobility, Computers, Communications • Automobiles – 1900: a few thousand – 1999: 501 million • Aircraft: – 1903: Wright brothers flight at Kitty Hawk – Today: 400 passenger jumbo jets • Computers – 1946: first digital computer – Today: 700 Mhz PCs and supercomputers • Internet: – 376,000 host computers (1990) to 30 million (1998) • Telephones – 89 million (1960) to 741 million (1996) – Cell phones: 10 million (1990) to 500 million (2004) The Dark Side • 29 new diseases in the last 25 years: Lyme disease, the Ebola virus, HIV, Hanta virus • Cities with 1 million people: – 1900: 16 – 1999: 326, 14 megacities with more than 10 million people • Wars: – WWI: 26 million dead – WWII: 53 million dead The Shape of a New Economy • Some rules: – Fish harvest does not exceed yield of fisheries – Water extracted from aquifers does not exceed recharge rate – Soil erosion does not exceed new soil formation – Tree cutting does not exceed tree planting – Carbon emissions do not exceed capacity of nature to “fix‟ atmospheric CO2 – Animal and plant species are not destroyed faster than they evolve • Fossil fuel economy replaced with solar economy – Wind energy (7% of electricity in Denmark) – Three U.S. states (N. Dakota, S. Dakota, and Texas) have enough wind power to supply U.S. electricity! • Renewable Energy growth rates – PV: 17%/year – Wind: 26%/year • Transport : – 1969: 23 million cars/yr 25 million bikes/yr – 1999: 37 million cars/yr 105 million bikes/yr • Materials – Get rid of throwaway attitudes (1 million lbs/yr/American – Design everything for recycle and reuse: Design for the Environment (DFE) – Factor 4 and Factor 10 – Products of Service – Extended Producer Responsibility – Changes in taxation policy Questions about Technology • Can technology, which has extended human reach, also liberate the environment from human impact? • Can technology decouple our goods and services from demands on planetary resources? • Can technology do the following to the economy?: – deenergize – dematerialize – decarbonize • Are the net impacts of technology positive or negative? Technology is applied science or engineering. When was the Golden Age? • 1963: US and USSR signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty, 400 nuclear explosions in atmosphere • 1945: much of European forests cut for fuel • 1920: coal provided 3/4 of world energy, choking smog around London and Pittsburgh • 1870: booming Industrial Revolution, no filters • 1839: Drake drew first petroleum from underground pool in Pennsylvania, tens of thousands of sperm whales slaughtered for 3 million gallons of sperm oil • 1840s: land-hungry farmers decimating forests and native grasses in US and Argentina • 1830s: cholera epidemics decimated populations that dumped wastes in nearby streams • 1700: 100,000 mills interrupted the flow of every stream in France • 1600s: dense forests in Brazil and Caribbean converted to sugar cane production • 1492: Columbus stimulates reverse reciprocal transatlantic invasions of flora and fauna • 10th century: people in cold climates center lives around fireplaces with louvered roofs to carry out smoke (and heat!) • 55 B.C. : Julius Caesar invades Britain and finds less forest than is there today • Homer to Alexander: forest of Eastern Mediterranean cleared • Prehistory: hunters decimate wild creatures, 13 tons of firewood needed for plaster for walls and floors of a house What are Construction‟s Impacts? • Construction is about 8% of U.S. GDP • 40% of all extracted materials go into the built environment • 90% of all materials ever extracted are in the built environment • Construction waste: 1 lb/ ft2 Renovation waste: 70 lb /ft2 • Total construction and demolition (C&D) waste: 135 million tons (U.S.) compared to 270 million tons Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) • 30% of all U.S. energy consumed by built environment • 40% of all U.S. energy consumed by transportation Conclusions • Population and consumption are rapidly depleting natural resources and destroying ecosystems • The economy and human activities are hyperwasteful and inefficient • When will the system break? • How do we change it before it does?
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