Module 1 Introduction by Levone

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 53

									Module 1 Introduction
BCN 1582 International Sustainable Development

Basic Info about BCN 1582
• Meets I (International) and S (Social) General Education Requirements • Required for UF BCN students • Divided into 4 modules • Instructors: Charles Kibert • Meets Tue (6-7) and Thu (6) in Rinker 110 • Attendance is mandatory • Class website: web.dcp.ufl.edu/ckibert
– UF Classes
• BCN 1582 International Sustainable Development

• Review Syllabus

Why BCN 1582?
• Humankind is rapidly depleting the Earth‟s resources and deteriorating its ecosystems • The rate of depletion and destruction is accelerating • The economy is predicated on cheap resources and cheap disposal of waste • The value of the planet‟s ecosystems to human social systems and its economy are not considered • Question: How do we change course before we selfdestruct? • Answer: Redesign our economy and change our attitudes to account for the critical role the environment plays in all aspects of our life.

What Should You Get Out of this Course?
• Understand the concept of sustainable development or “sustainability” • Learn about the changes in human activities that are forecast: in industry, communities, in countries around the world • Learn about the opportunities that sustainability presents for the future • Learn new terminology: The Natural Step, ISO 14000, DFE, deconstruction, carrying capacity

The Theme
• Natural capital and resources are being rapidly destroyed and depleted • Three lessons:
– Factors that increase by a fixed %/year have fixed doubling times – The earth is essentially a closed system – Exponentially increasing mass of humanity can cause planetary-scale disruptions

• The human race cannot sustain its growth and behavior • Result: Changed patterns or destruction

Rule of 72
• Small % changes can grow exponentially • To get the Doubling Time (DT), given a specified annual % growth rate, divide 72 by the annual % growth rate or change. • E.g. If the interest on a Certificate of Deposit (CD) is 6%, the time it takes to double the money is 72/6 = 12 years. • The growth rate of the earth‟s population is 1.7%. How much time will it take before the earth has a population of 12 billion people?

ANSWER
72/1.7 = 42.4 years ! (2043)

How much time until there are 24 billion people? Another 42.4 years! The year 2086.

And so on!

Some Basic Things to Note
• Sustainability means “..to continue at the same pace” or “to last indefinitely.” • The question is with our current rate of resource depletion and environmental degradation, is the human species “sustainable” ? • The basic issues for sustainability are population and consumption

Basic World Views
• Anthropocentric:
– “Human” centered – Nature exists for mankind – Substitutability

• Gaia (James Lovelock)
– Earth is a living system – Natural systems have rights

Sustainability & Development
• • • • What does “sustain” mean? What is “development”? How does development differ from growth? Is there such a thing as “sustainable growth”?

Sustainable Development
 Some formal definitions  ... is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (World Commission on Env and Dev, 1987 -- Our Common Future, the Brundtland Report)  ... is non-declining human well-being over time. – Intergenerational justice – Total capital stock must be non-declining – Critical natural capital • assimilative capacity for industrial waste • biodiversity • fertile soil
Pearce.D et al., The Economics of Sustain. Dev., Annu. Rev. Energy Env. 1994, 19:457-74

The Systems

Natural (N)

Social (S)

Economic (E)

Systems Character ProtoSustainable
N E

S

Systems Character - Economics Driven

N

S

E

True Systems Character

E

S

N

Back to the Basic Problem
• Population and consumption are making life unsustainable • The IPAT formula (from Paul Ehrlich):
Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology =people x materials/person x impact/materials

Consumption Worldwide
Consumption per Person CO2 emissions (tonnes/year) Purchasing power ($US/year) Vehicles per 100 people Paper consumption (Kg/year) Fossil energy use (Gigajoules/year) Fresh water withdrawals (m3/year) Canada 15.2 19,320 47 247 250 1,688 USA 19.5 22,130 57 317 287 1,868 India 0.81 1,150 0.2 2 5 612 World 4.2 3,800 10 44 56 644

Ecological Footprint (hectares/person)

4.3

5.1

0.4

1.8

Table 2.4 Consumption characteristics and Ecological Footprints of various countries and world average (Wackernagel and Rees 1996)

Human Impacts on Natural Systems
• Depletion
– Soil, non-renewable resources

• Destruction
– Biodiversity, renewable resources, waste assimilative capacity, ozone layer

• Appropriation
– Net Primary Production (NPP), fresh water

• Modification
– Agriculture, extractive industries, built environment

• Pollution and Toxification
– Water, air, land

Critical Environmental Problems
• • • • • • Loss of Biodiversity Polluted Air and Water Destruction of Productive Ecosystems Loss of Productive Soil Greenhouse Warming Ozone Depletion
Summary: Loss of Critical Natural Capital

What is capital?
• Historically, it is money, machinery, buildings • Other important forms:
– Human capital – Natural capital – Critical Natural Capital

• Side note: all the „stuff‟ of the human economy is produced by natural systems or extracted from the earth. • Question: What does this imply for the future?

Worth of Ecosystem
• Costanza et al 1997, “The value of the world‟s ecosytem goods and services,” Nature, 387:253-260.
– Pollination, Raw Materials Production, Water Supply, Waste Recycling & Pollution Control, Recreation & Education, Climate and Atmosphere Regulation, Soil Formation and Erosion Control, Control of Pests & Diseases

• Value of services: US$16 to $US54 trillion • World GNP: US$18 trillion • Ecosystem-to-GNP ratio 1.8

Services Provided by Natural Systems
• Air quality enhancement • Soils for food, wood, paper production • Ambient temperature enhancement • Dampening flood peaks • Filtering/recharging groundwater • Erosion control • Renewable energy • Pollination • Evaportranspiration

• Food and water for wildlife • Pest control • Recreation and tourism • Grazing for domesticated animals • Noise barriers and separation • Natural fires • Carbon, energy, water storage • Hazard reduction

Exhaustion of Natural Resources
• Rainforest loss: 1 acre per second • Annual temperate forest loss: 4 million hectares (Siberia), 1 million hectares (Canada) • Forests: 40% (1,000 years ago) 30% (1900) 20% (today) • Loss of 20% of all species by 2030 • Grain production: 465 MT (1987) 229 MT (1996) • Fisheries: 22 MT (1950) 100 MT (1987) 90 MT (1995) • Movement of more material than natural forces • Loss of 24 billion tons of topsoil annually

Oil Crisis 1974

Resource Consumption Patterns

Hubbert‟s Pimple - Oil Consumption

Correlation CO2 and Temperature

CO2 Concentration vs. Time

Contributions to Global Warming
Gas
Carbon Dioxide Methane CFC’s Tropospheric Ozone Nitrous Oxide

Percent Contribution
50 19 17 8 4

Measures of Welfare
• • • • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross National Product (GNP) Measure all throughput in the economy But also count:
– – – – Exxon Valdez accident Depletion of forests Environmental disasters Human misery

Alternative Measures of Welfare
• Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) • Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) • Human Development Index (HDI)

Human Development Index
• Created by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) • A composite of three indicators
– Longevity: life expectancy – Knowledge: literacy, years of schooling – Standard of Living: purchasing power based on GDP/capita

Genuine Progress Indicator
• Developed by non-profit: Redefining Progress • Starts with real personal consumption, adjusts for income distribution • Subtracts:
– – – – – – – Crime & Divorce Resource depletion Environmental Damage Income Distribution Pollution Lifespan of durable goods & public infrastructure Dependence on foreign assets

• Adds:
– Value of household work and parenting – Value of volunteer work

INDEX OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC WELFARE – U.S., 1990 (Constant billion $ of 1972 Personal income adjusted for income distribution +services for household labor +services of consumer durable goods +services of highways and streets +consumption public spending on health/education -consumer spending on durable goods -defensive private spending on health and education -cost of commuting and auto accidents -cost of personal pollution control $1,164 +520 +225 +18 +45 -225 -63

-67 -5

-cost of air, water, and noise pollution
-lost of wetlands and farmland -depletion of natural resources -long term damage from nuclear wastes, ozone depletion, and greenhouse gases +net capital growth +/- net international investment position INDEX OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC WELFARE

-39
-58 -313 -371

+29 -34 $818

A New Economy for a New Century
• At the start of the 21st Century
– Human population is 4x greater than in 1900 – World economy is 17x larger – CO2 concentrations at highest level in 160,000 years

• Western economic model is in trouble
– Fossil-fuel based – Automobile-centered – Throwaway approach

• Shift to an environmentally sustainable economy is needed, as profound a change as the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th Century

Bursts of Change
• First: Development of technology sped up 40,000 years ago: tools for hunting, cooking, other essential tasks, population of 4,000,000 • Second: Fertile Crescent, 10,000 years ago: transformation of agriculture, sophisticated tools and social structures, emergence of towns and cities
– Population jumps: 27,000,000 in 2,000 BC, 100 million at start of Christian era, 350 million in 1000 AD

• Third: Industrial Revolution in 18th Century Population reaches 1 billion in 1825

Changes since Start of 20th Century
• Oil:
– 1900: a few thousand barrels/day – 1997: 72 million barrels/day

• Metals:
– 1900: 20 million tons/year – 1999: 1.2 billion tons/year

• Plastic:
– 1900: none – 1999: 281 million tons/year

• Paper: sixfold increase 1950-1996 (281 million tons)

Mobility, Computers, Communications
• Automobiles
– 1900: a few thousand – 1999: 501 million

• Aircraft:
– 1903: Wright brothers flight at Kitty Hawk – Today: 400 passenger jumbo jets

• Computers
– 1946: first digital computer – Today: 700 Mhz PCs and supercomputers

• Internet:
– 376,000 host computers (1990) to 30 million (1998)

• Telephones
– 89 million (1960) to 741 million (1996) – Cell phones: 10 million (1990) to 500 million (2004)

The Dark Side
• 29 new diseases in the last 25 years: Lyme disease, the Ebola virus, HIV, Hanta virus • Cities with 1 million people:
– 1900: 16 – 1999: 326, 14 megacities with more than 10 million people

• Wars:
– WWI: 26 million dead – WWII: 53 million dead

The Shape of a New Economy
• Some rules:
– Fish harvest does not exceed yield of fisheries – Water extracted from aquifers does not exceed recharge rate – Soil erosion does not exceed new soil formation – Tree cutting does not exceed tree planting – Carbon emissions do not exceed capacity of nature to “fix‟ atmospheric CO2 – Animal and plant species are not destroyed faster than they evolve

• Fossil fuel economy replaced with solar economy
– Wind energy (7% of electricity in Denmark) – Three U.S. states (N. Dakota, S. Dakota, and Texas) have enough wind power to supply U.S. electricity!

• Renewable Energy growth rates
– PV: 17%/year – Wind: 26%/year

• Transport :
– 1969: 23 million cars/yr 25 million bikes/yr – 1999: 37 million cars/yr 105 million bikes/yr

• Materials
– Get rid of throwaway attitudes (1 million lbs/yr/American – Design everything for recycle and reuse: Design for the Environment (DFE) – Factor 4 and Factor 10 – Products of Service – Extended Producer Responsibility – Changes in taxation policy

Questions about Technology
• Can technology, which has extended human reach, also liberate the environment from human impact? • Can technology decouple our goods and services from demands on planetary resources? • Can technology do the following to the economy?:
– deenergize – dematerialize – decarbonize

• Are the net impacts of technology positive or negative?
Technology is applied science or engineering.

When was the Golden Age?
• 1963: US and USSR signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty, 400 nuclear explosions in atmosphere • 1945: much of European forests cut for fuel • 1920: coal provided 3/4 of world energy, choking smog around London and Pittsburgh • 1870: booming Industrial Revolution, no filters • 1839: Drake drew first petroleum from underground pool in Pennsylvania, tens of thousands of sperm whales slaughtered for 3 million gallons of sperm oil • 1840s: land-hungry farmers decimating forests and native grasses in US and Argentina • 1830s: cholera epidemics decimated populations that dumped wastes in nearby streams

• 1700: 100,000 mills interrupted the flow of every stream in France • 1600s: dense forests in Brazil and Caribbean converted to sugar cane production • 1492: Columbus stimulates reverse reciprocal transatlantic invasions of flora and fauna • 10th century: people in cold climates center lives around fireplaces with louvered roofs to carry out smoke (and heat!) • 55 B.C. : Julius Caesar invades Britain and finds less forest than is there today • Homer to Alexander: forest of Eastern Mediterranean cleared • Prehistory: hunters decimate wild creatures, 13 tons of firewood needed for plaster for walls and floors of a house

What are Construction‟s Impacts?
• Construction is about 8% of U.S. GDP • 40% of all extracted materials go into the built environment • 90% of all materials ever extracted are in the built environment • Construction waste: 1 lb/ ft2 Renovation waste: 70 lb /ft2 • Total construction and demolition (C&D) waste: 135 million tons (U.S.) compared to 270 million tons Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) • 30% of all U.S. energy consumed by built environment • 40% of all U.S. energy consumed by transportation

Conclusions
• Population and consumption are rapidly depleting natural resources and destroying ecosystems • The economy and human activities are hyperwasteful and inefficient • When will the system break? • How do we change it before it does?


								
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