April 27, 2010
Indian Markets Global outlook – earnings revised upward
Index Last Trade Daily MTD YTD
Nifty 5,322 0.3% 1% 2%
We have maintained our view about the arnings momentum picking up,
Sensex 17,745 0.3% 1% 2% particularly in the financial sector. Now, analysts are predicting that
CNX Bank 9,839 0.3% 4% 9% earnings may be revised upward, and with that strategists are saying that
CNX IT 6,040 0.4% 3% 4%
US stocks are the “cheapest”. Earnings surprise is seen in nearly 80% of
stocks, which is higher than surprises seen in the previous quarters. With
Index Last Trade Daily MTD YTD
S&P 500 1,217 0.7% 4% 9% repeated surprises, investor expectations would also go up for the next
Nikkei 11,166 2.3% 1% 6% few years, that too in a scenario where the IMF has already upgraded its
Dow Jones 11,204 0.6% 3% 7%
world outlook and growth rate for various countries, including developed
Hang Seng 21,587 1.6% 2% ‐1%
KOSPI 1,752 0.9% 4% 4% ones. We believe that the recovery, even though it is led by stimulus, is
CAC 3,985 0.8% 0% 1% likely to remain and that governments would take all steps to maintain
DAX 6,306 0.7% 2% 6% status quo. We remain positive.
FTSE 5,756 0.6% 1% 6%
Commodities Domestic equity outlook – earnings season is in full
Brent 85 0.7% 5% 10% Companies are eager to report their earnings growth for the quarter
Gold 1,155 ‐0.2% 4% 5%
ending March 2010 as the corresponding quarter last year had been the
Silver 18 0.0% 5% 9%
Copper 354 0.4% ‐1% 5% worst, and, hence, the improvement is remarkable, in our view. However,
Aluminium 2,303 0.6% 0% 5% there are a few disappointments seen in heavyweights, like Reliance
CRY Index 279 0.7% 2% ‐2%
Industries and Maruti Suzuki. Financials, on the other hand, have
Sugar 16 0.7% ‐4% ‐31%
performed as per expectations. Overall, we rate that the earnings
Last Trade Month Back Year Back
momentum is quite satisfactory, with a positive outlook despite concerns
$ ‐ Re 44.38 44.92 46.53 on interest rate hardening. Again, the government is quite hopeful about
$ ‐ ¥ 94.22 93.47 93.02 getting sizeable funds from the 3G bids and divestment process. In the
$ ‐ € 0.75 0.74 0.70
$ ‐ £ 0.65 0.66 0.62
short term, although uncertainty over the monsoon remains, the picture
Dollar Index Spot 81.68 81.07 77.86 would be clearer only by the first half of June. We believe that market
Asian Dollar Index 113.19 112.05 110.67 sentiments remain positive. Mid‐ and small‐cap companies would remain
Turnovers (Rs. Mn) favourite destinations for both domestic and foreign investors due to both
26‐Apr % ch the valuations gap and untold stories of such companies. We remain
Cash * ‐ ‐100%
positive on the markets.
F&O (NSE ) 821,938 ‐20%
* Data from NSE website
Open Interest (Rs. Mn)
Based on delivery analysis, accumulation was observed in Axis Bank, HDFC,
Index Futures 180,107 183,178 Sterlite, Gati, Jain Irrigation Systems and CESC. Distribution was seen in
Index Options 708,710 697,004 Maruti Suzuki, Balrampur Chini, Reliance and ICICI Bank.
Stock Futures 408,329 405,104 Implied volatility (IV): ATM IV moved up by 2‐3 vol points. The put‐call
Stock Options 91,857 91,707
ratio moved up to 0.99 from 0.98.
Total 1,389,003 1,376,993
Investment Activity (Rs. Mn)
Recommendation summary (Please see inside for details)
Gross Buy Gross Sell Net
FII ‐ Cash 42,386 24,909 17,477 Stop loss
FII ‐ Derivatives 136,794 128,215 8,579 Call Company Rating CMP* (Rs) PT (Rs)
MF ‐ Cash 9,399 6,924 2,476
Data for 22 ‐ Apr
Fundamental Sun Pharma BUY 1,603.00 1,861.00 NA
Rates Intraday Jindal Saw SELL 219.05 2‐4% 223.00
Last Trade Month Back Year Back Intraday OFSS SELL 2,205.00 1‐2% 2,250.00
Mibor 3.93% 5.48% 3.72%
Intraday Cipla BUY 330.60 1‐2% 322.00
12 m T Bill 5.00% 5.05% 4.58%
10 yr G Sec 8.06% 7.83% 7.59% Intraday TV‐18 BUY 81.90 2‐4% 79.10
LIBOR 0.26% 0.25% 0.23%
Positional Great Eastern SELL 330.00 310.00 341.00
US 10 Yr Yields 3.81% 3.83% 3.84%
*At 15:46 IST *Pricing as on 26 April 2010. Positional picks are based on a 3‐5 day horizon
News to watch out
US: Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s most profitable firm, will face off against a US Senate
subcommittee in a pivotal hearing that could have repercussions for the future of the financial
industry. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who leads the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee
on Investigations, released documents that he said showed the company “put its own interest
and profit ahead of the interests of its clients,” a conflict he called on Congress to end. Lloyd
Blankfein, Goldman Sachs’s chairman and chief executive officer, will dispute that assertion
and argue the firm was merely managing its own risk.
Greece/ Portugal: Portugal risks becoming the new Greece. With a higher debt burden and a
slower 10‐year growth rate than Greece, Western Europe’s poorest country is being punished
by investors as the sovereign debt crisis spreads. The risk premium on Portuguese bonds
rose to more than double the past year’s average this month. Portugal’s credit default swaps
show investors rank its debt as the world’s eighth‐riskiest, worse than for Lebanon and
Guatemala. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won’t release Greek rescue funds until
the country shows it’s got a “sustainable, credible” plan to cut its budget deficit.
Brazil: Brazil’s government plans to boost farm lending for next year’s crop by about 7.5% to
almost 100 bn reals (US$57.3 bn), less than 146bn reals, the amount sought by growers
seeking protection against price declines. The financing will be available to commercial
farmers, who start planting in September. The government‐aid package is less than what
Brazilian farmers are seeking after debt surged and a global credit crunch pared access to
financing. The credit is for requirements from higher production of soybeans, corn and other
crops, which increases the need of stockpiling to avert price drops. The government is the
main backer of crop financing in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of sugar, coffee and
oranges. Brazil is the second‐largest producer of soybeans.
Oil: Oil extended declines after the dollar strengthened and analysts forecast an increase in
US crude supplies. Oil dropped 1.1% as the greenback advanced against the euro, limiting
investors’ need for commodities to hedge against inflation. Crude inventories probably rose 1
mn barrels last week, according to analysts surveyed before an Energy Department report
India’s say in World Bank rises: India saw its say in the World Bank increasing a bit after
member nations approved a shift in voting rights, while China's voice in the agency grew
louder than that of Germany, France and the UK. Both India and China had until now enjoyed
an identical 2.77% voting rights. While India's voting power stands increased to 2.91%, that
of China leaped to 4.42% placing it third overall. India is now the seventh largest member in
terms of voting power. Ahead of it are the US with 15.85%, Japan (6.84%), China (4.42%),
Germany (4%), France (3.75%) and the UK (3.75%).
Bids for nationwide 3G mobile spectrum licences in India rose 139.4% above the base price
to Rs83.80 bn on the 14th day of an auction, government data showed on Monday. Eight‐two
rounds of bidding had been completed by Monday, the department of telecommunications
said on its website.
Maruti Suzuki, the maker of half the cars sold in the country, posted 4Q FY10 net income
that missed analyst estimates as increased raw material costs eroded gains from selling more
vehicles. Net income for the quarter more than doubled to Rs6.57 bn from Rs2.43 bn a year
earlier. Sales increased 30% to Rs82.3 bn. Spending on steel and other raw materials rose
29%. It also incurred expenses upgrading vehicles to meet new emissions standards. Sales of
models including the Swift and Ritz rose 21% as economic growth and higher disposable
incomes enabled more people to buy their first car.
Sterlite Industries owner of the nation's biggest zinc producer, more than doubled its fourth
quarter profit on higher prices, leading the firm to announce a 1:1 bonus issue. Net income
rose to Rs13.80 bn during 4Q FY10 from Rs5.98 bn. Sterlite, part of Londonbased Vedanta
Resources Plc, owns Hindustan Zinc Ltd, which last month started production from a
210,000‐tonne capacity smelter in Rajasthan.
April 27, 2010 2
April 27, 2010
April 27, 2010
BUY CMP Rs1,603 SUN PHARMA – strong sales and profit visibility
BSE code: 524715 NSE symbol: SUNPHARMA
12month price target Rs1,861 Sun Pharma is among leading Indian companies manfacturing specialty
Market cap Rs330 bn (US$7.44 bn) pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients. It has a strong
One‐year high/low: Rs1,853/1,050 presence in India and the US markets.
No of shares o/s: 206 mn Sun Pharma has among the best product pipelines in the US among peers.
Fully diluted no of shares: 206 mn The company has 108 abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) across
Avg daily trading vol (3m): 0.402 mn
therapies and product lines, such as controlled substances, ointments,
Avg daily trading val (3m): Rs645 mn
lotions and nasal sprays. We expect the US generics business to drive
growth on the back of continued launches, which would expand product
Dividend yield 0.86%
offerings in terms of the number of drugs and the quality of the portfolio.
The company is involved in a large number of Para‐IV patent litigations in
Key personnel the US. It holds first‐to‐file status on many branded formulations that
Mr Dilip S Sanghvi Chairman and MD have significantly robust sales in the US.
Mr Sudhir Valia Whole‐time director
Sun Pharma is among leading companies in the domestic pharma market.
Auditors It commands a sizeable market share in the chronic therapeutic
Delloitte Haskins & Sells segments, such as cardiovascular, central nervous system and diabetes.
Its strong relationships with doctors and wide product offerings in the
Shareholding pattern (as on March 2010) domestic market are likely to drive growth in the domestic formulations
business over the next two years.
Sun Pharma has been pursuing the acquisition of Taro Pharma in Israel
and currently holds a 36% stake. Acquisition of an additional stake was
resisted by Taro’s management and both companies are involved in an
20.2% ongoing litigation in the Isreali Supreme Court. An outcome in favour of
Sun Pharma would enable it to take full control of the company and add
more than US$340 mn in annual US sales to its topline.
Promoters FIIs MFs/FIs/Banks Others Valuation
We recommend BUY with a price target of Rs1,861 based on 20x FY12E
Sun Pharma: 12month price performance earnings. We have a positive view on the stock, given its robust US
2,000 generics business and firm India formulations business. The stock is
trading at 19.8x FY11E and 17.7x FY12E fully diluted earnings.
The US FDA had stopped the manufacturing of products at the Detroit
600 facility at Sun Pharma’s US subsidiary, Caraco, for non‐compliance of
400 cGMP norms. Inability to resolve these issues with the US FDA would pose
a risk to the US business as it could lead to the closure of the facility in the
A sharp strengthening of the rupee against the US dollar would adversely
impact sales as exports contribute more than 53% of net sales.
Y/E March Net revenues EBITDA Adjusted net income RoE RoCE Valuations (x)
(Rs mn) (% growth) (Rs mn) (% growth) (Rs mn) (% growth) (%) (%) PER EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
FY08 32,909 58.0 15,495 131.0 14,868 89.6 38.8 36.0 22.3 20.2 9.5
FY09 41,833 27.1 18,624 20.2 18,177 22.3 30.1 31.5 18.3 16.0 7.1
FY10E 38,677 (7.5) 12,103 (35.0) 12,405 (31.8) 16.2 16.7 26.8 24.1 7.5
FY11E 49,392 27.7 17,313 43.0 16,793 35.4 18.8 20.3 19.8 16.3 5.7
FY12E 57,139 15.7 19,654 13.5 18,756 11.7 17.9 19.7 17.7 13.7 4.7
April 27, 2010 3
Technical Research Economy Update
April 27, 2010
NIFTY Outlook for the day
RESISTANCE 5,400 The Nifty continued its upward journey from the previous strong session with further
gains, giving yet another closing above 5,300. The BSE Sensex closed 51pt in the positive
or 0.29% higher at 17,745, while the Nifty closed 15pt in the positive or 0.29% higher at
5,319. The advance‐decline ratio remained at 1:1 for the broader market, and close to
5:2 for Nifty stocks.
The Nifty managed to convincingly sustain above its short‐term DMAs, currently placed
around 5,292. With breakout from the cluster of DMAs, and positive crossover in
momentum oscillators, the short‐term trend in price has started to gain momentum. We
expect the Nifty to advance and test its intermediate top of 5,400 in the next 2‐3 trading
sessions. Traders can hold on to their long positions, with a trailing stop loss of 5,290.
The following table lists the positional calls that we recommended to close during the
market hours on the previous day, given that the stock neither hit the price target nor
the stop loss.
Initiated Initiated Closing Closing
Stock % Return period
date price date price
ADANI ENTERPRISE S 21 April 2010 526.00 26 April 2010 566.00 7.60 5
April 27, 2010 4
Great Eastern Shipping (SELL) Great Eastern Shipping (LTP: 330)
Closing 330 The stock is facing strong resistance near its upwardly sloping resistance line, thus
Target 310 forming a bearish candle in the last two trading sessions. With negative divergence seen
Stop loss 341 in RSI and overbought levels in KST, the probability of a short‐term trend reversal in the
stock has increased.
Traders can sell the stock in the range of Rs330‐333, with a stop loss of Rs341 and a
target of Rs310.
April 27, 2010 5
JINDAL SAW (SELL) JINDAL SAW (LTP: 219.05)
Support 214.00215.00 The stock closed up by about Rs1.55 during the last trading session. For the day, one can initiate
fresh short positions once it moves in the range of Rs221‐222, with a strict stop loss of Rs223 for a
probable downmove of 2‐4%.
OFSS (SELL) OFSS (LTP: 2,205)
Support 2,1802,200 The stock closed down by about Rs6.20 yesterday. For today’s trade, one can initiate fresh short
positions once it moves in the range of Rs2,230‐2,240, with a strict stop loss of Rs2,250 for a
probable downmove of 1‐2%.
April 27, 2010 6
CIPLA (BUY) CIPLA (LTP: 330.60)
Support 326.00325.00 The stock closed almost flat yesterday. For today’s trade, long positions can be initiated once it
Resistance 336.00339.00 moves in the range of Rs326‐324, with a strict stop loss of Rs322 for a probable upmove of 1‐2%.
TV18 (BUY) TV18 (LTP: 81.90)
Support 80.00 The stock closed almost flat yesterday. For today’s trade, long positions can be initiated once it
Resistance 83.5084.00 moves between Rs80.50 and Rs80.00, with a strict stop loss of Rs79.10 for a probable upmove of
Note for traders: One can take long/short positions in case of breach above/below mentioned
resistance/support range for intraday trades, respectively. Day’s high/low can be used as strict trailing stop
loss. Risk will be higher in case of a contrarian trade.
April 27, 2010 7
Sr. no Name Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Close Support 1 Support 2
1 Nifty Future 5341 5362 5320 5304 5268
2 Bank Nifty Future 9882 9923 9841 9809 9736
3 CNX IT Future 6058 6078 6038 6024 5990
Sr. no Name Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Close Support 1 Support 2
1 A.C.C. 923 936 911 892 860
2 ABB LTD. 827 841 813 805 783
3 AMBUJACEM 123 124 121 119 116
4 AXISBANK 1292 1309 1276 1248 1204
5 BHARAT PETRO 505 507 502 498 492
6 BHARTIARTL 301 304 298 296 290
7 BHEL 2523 2539 2508 2488 2452
8 CAIRN 304 305 302 301 297
9 CIPLA 334 337 330 328 322
10 DLF 334 344 323 317 300
11 GAIL 427 431 423 420 414
12 GRASIM IND. 2868 2880 2857 2848 2828
13 HCL TECHNOLO 395 399 390 385 375
14 HDFC BANK 2001 2014 1989 1971 1941
15 HERO HONDA 1896 1922 1869 1854 1812
16 HINDALCO 187 189 184 181 175
17 HINDUNILVR 241 242 240 238 234
18 HOUS DEV FIN 2847 2876 2818 2769 2692
19 ICICI BANK 983 1005 961 948 914
20 IDEA 66 67 65 64 62
21 IDFC 172 175 170 168 164
22 INFOSYS TECH 2755 2770 2739 2727 2700
23 ITC 270 274 267 264 258
24 JINDL STL&PO 744 751 737 725 707
25 JPASSOCIATEQ 162 164 159 158 153
26 LT EQ 1634 1651 1617 1604 1574
27 MAH & MAH 533 537 529 525 516
28 MARUTI 1368 1397 1338 1321 1274
29 NTPC EQ 206 207 205 204 202
30 ONGC CORP. 1027 1035 1018 1012 998
31 PNB 1042 1055 1030 1020 998
32 POWERGRID 111 112 111 110 109
33 RANBAXY LAB. 456 466 445 438 421
34 RCOM 170 171 169 168 166
35 REL.CAPITAL 743 749 738 734 724
36 RELIANCE 1082 1092 1071 1063 1044
37 RELINFRA 1135 1152 1118 1101 1067
38 RPOWER 163 165 160 158 154
39 SIEMENS 722 731 713 708 693
40 STATE BANK 2276 2297 2254 2234 2192
41 STEEL AUTHOR 232 234 230 227 222
42 STER EQ 861 878 843 814 767
43 SUN PHARMA. 1650 1693 1607 1575 1500
44 SUZLON 72 73 71 71 69
45 TATA POWER 1386 1404 1369 1357 1327
46 TATAMOTORSEQ 858 866 851 844 830
47 TATASTEEL 664 671 658 652 639
48 TCS EQ 792 797 787 782 771
49 UNITECH LTD 86 87 84 83 80
50 WIPRO 705 710 700 695 684
(Price levels are for the current month futures in Rs)
April 27, 2010 8
Trading was very range bound Top OI Increase
with most participants focusing Name OI * % ch Price % ch Volume* % ch
on rolls. There were no signs of Sun Pharma Indu 3,193
1,607 ‐5% 3,296
short coverings; Nifty futures Great Offshore L 1,116
454 8% 2,173
spread failed to sustain at a Andhra Bank 2,254
126 4% 2,687
Tata Communicati 5,529
277 0% 5,349
premium for a long time.
Indian Overseas 2,196
102 3% 2,449
Volumes were dull, especially
* C o ntra c ts , # P ric e c ha nge o f ne a r m o nth future s , OI re fe rs to o ve ra ll future s OI
considering that roll activity has Top OI Decline
already started. Nifty rolls Name OI * % ch Price % ch Volume* % ch
traded between 25pt while roll Aurobindo Pharma 2,972
936 1% 1,670
levels on stock futures traded Petronet Lng Ltd 1,881
83 0% 792
between 32bp and 35bp. Metals Gail India Ltd 4,679
423 0% 2,011
and banks helped the Nifty close United Phosphoru 1,950
149 3% 1,428
in the green. Sterlite declared Power Grid Corp
‐6.4% 1% 3,168
strong results and a 1:1 bonus * C o ntra c ts , # P ric e c ha nge o f ne a r m o nth future s , OI re fe rs to o ve ra ll future s OI
Sector OI * % ch Price % ch Volume* % ch
Sectoral activity: Buying was Pharma 39,883
seen in materials, energy and
Realty & Construction 114,868
Stock activity: Fresh long Materials 139,662
buildup was seen in Great
Offshore, Andhra Bank and IOB
while short buildup was seen in Energy 143,292
Sun Pharma Consumer Linked 62,251
Auto and Ancilliary 76,054
April 27, 2010 9
Based on delivery analysis, Trade Statistics
NSE Volume NSE Delivery (%) BSE Volume BSE Delivery (%) Total Volume Total Delivery (%)
accumulation was observed in 26‐Apr 11,681 38% 3,961 36% 15,642 38%
Axis Bank, HDFC, Sterlite, Gati, 5D Avg 14,088 41% 4,593 34% 18,681 39%
Jain Irrigation Systems and Chg ‐17% ‐5% ‐14% 4% ‐16% ‐3%
Top 5: Jump in Delivery Volumes (mn)
Distribution was seen in Maruti Delivery Volume 5 Day Avg Delivery
Suzuki, Balrampur Chini, Company Price Chg (mn shares) Volume (mn shares) % increase % delivery
GATI LIMITED 12.3% 1.5
Reliance and ICICI Bank JAIN IRRIGATION SYSTEMS 7.5%
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD. ‐2.0% 0.6
MSK PROJECTS (INDIA) LTD 2.9% 2.6
HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED 2.4%
0.1 157% 57%
Top 5: Delivery Volumes (mn)
Delivery Volume Delivery Volume Volume (mn
Company Price Chg (INR mn) (mn shares) shares) % delivery
AXIS BANK LIMITED 2,621
3.5% 2.0 1.6 55%
ICICI BANK LTD. ‐2% 2,512 2.6 2.0 40%
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD 2,173
‐1.6% 2.0 2.4 44%
HDFC LTD 4% 1,287 0.5 0.3 49%
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD 1,094
0.4% 0.4 0.5 67%
Block deals snapshot
Date Stock Client Bght/ Sold Quantity (Rs) Exchange
26‐Apr Ace India Ved Prakash Narula Sold
26‐Apr Amulya Leas Sameer Gupta Bght
26‐Apr Ansal Housing And Constru Sar Auto Products Limited Sold 98,000 73.9
26‐Apr Chemcel Bio Rekha Bhandari Sold
26‐Apr Digjam Sukriti Education Society Bght 1,300,000 10.0
26‐Apr Digjam Payal Commercial Company Limited Sold 1,300,000 10.0
26‐Apr Dmc Intl Navdeep Gupta Sold
26‐Apr Excel Infoways Limited Sar Auto Products Limited Bght
26‐Apr Farmax Ind Annapurna Ganga Sani Sold
124,509 114.4 BSE
26‐Apr Gremach Infra Shri Hanuman Investments Private Limited Sold
26‐Apr Intrasoft Tech. Ltd Pan Emami Cosmed Limited Bght
100,000 132.5 NSE
26‐Apr Intrasoft Tech. Ltd Shail Investments Pvt. Ltd. Sold
100,000 132.5 NSE
26‐Apr Iol Chemicals Gpb Industries Private Limited Bght
26‐Apr Jmd Telefilms North Eastern Publishing And Advertising Co Bght 352,200
26‐Apr Msk Projects Anchor Malls Pvt Ltd Bght
505,115 180.3 BSE
26‐Apr Msk Projects Sudhadevi Premkumar Agarwal Bght
500,000 179.0 BSE
26‐Apr Msk Projects Surendrakumar Balkishandas Agarwal Bght
500,000 179.0 BSE
26‐Apr Msk Projects Classic.Inns.Private.Ltd Sold
900,000 180.3 BSE
April 27, 2010 10
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