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					July 9, 2013

GS Copper 60

Emerging surplus set to pressure
economics of the project pipeline
                                                                                                                                                       Equity Research

Weaker demand to move market to                        Longer-term market fundamentals intact                                Fawzi Hanano
surplus in 2H13E…                                      On our estimates, the upcoming surplus will be                        +44(20)7774-8377 fawzi.hanano@gs.com
                                                                                                                             Goldman Sachs International
Following a balanced 1H13, we now forecast the         transient in nature, with the market returning to
copper market to be in a surplus of nearly 250kt in    balance from 2016E. We believe incentive pricing
2H13. Tightening Chinese financial conditions, an      support may return as new project approvals will                      Eugene King
earlier-than-expected slowdown in Chinese              be needed to meet tighter market conditions, with                     +44(20)7774-2447 eugene.king@gs.com
                                                       continued grade declines remaining a challenge.                       Goldman Sachs International
construction completions, and weaker-than-
expected social housing completions for 2013 have
led our commodities analysts to downgrade 2013E        FQM up to Buy, reiterate Buy on LUN                                   Christophor Jost
Chinese copper demand growth to 6% from 8%.            We upgrade FQM to Buy from Neutral, reflecting                        +44(20)7774-0014 christophor.jost@gs.com
                                                                                                                             Goldman Sachs International
                                                       its industry-leading growth, attractive project
… widening in 14/15E on supply growth                  portfolio and improving cost position, with the
We forecast mined copper supply growth of 4.6%         stock screening well despite our lower price deck.                    Owen Scarrott
pa in 2014/15, well ahead of the 1.4% CAGR in the      We reiterate our Buy on LUN: the M&A overhang                         +44(20)7552-9944 owen.scarrott@gs.com
                                                       is removed following the acquisition of the Eagle                     Goldman Sachs International
past five years and exceeding our 4.2% demand
growth estimate; this widens the surplus to 392kt      project from RIO, which we believe is accretive and
in 2014E and 500kt in 2015E.                           contributes to a strong growth profile at LUN.
                                                                                                                             Fletcher Tully, CFA
                                                                                                                             +44(20)7552-9935 fletcher.tully@gs.com

Price trading around cost support                      Maintain Sell on KAZ, ANTO Neutral                                    Goldman Sachs International

We expect the copper price in 2014 to trade around     We reiterate our Sell rating on KAZ, reflecting its
marginal cost (including sustaining capex), with an    high cost position in a weaker price environment,
average price forecast of US$6,600/t (c.US300 c/lb).   resulting in margin compression in a period of flat
However, we forecast that the price in 2014 will       production and significant capex. We maintain our
temporarily undershoot the 90th percentile of the      Neutral rating on ANTO, as we believe the stock is
total cash plus sustaining capex cost curve, by        trading around fair value and see little in the way
trading down to US$6,200/t, in our base case.          of potential positive catalysts.



Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US
affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.


The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.                                                                                                                        Global Investment Research
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60



Table of contents
Window for constructive copper view closing fast, with surplus around the corner                                            3
FQM upgraded to Buy – Our thesis in charts                                                                                  4
Project commissioning and ramp-ups to boost 2013-15E copper production                                                      5
Copper equities broadly pricing in current spot copper price                                                               12
Existing supply susceptible to ongoing disruptions, but insufficient to offset surplus                                     13
FQM and LUN preferred on attractive growth; KAZ least preferred on compressing margin                                      14
Lower copper price environment to affect capital-intensive project economics                                               21
Not all announced projects to see the light of day – risking the potential supply delivery                                 23
Project capex remains under upward pressure, but peak in sight                                                             28
Longer-term market fundamentals remain supportive of incentive price                                                       30
Rising capital intensity affecting project IRRs                                                                            32
FQM produces most growth through strong pipeline of brownfield and greenfield projects                                     34
Attractive portfolios at smaller players, but funding to be biggest challenge                                              35
Appendix 1: Company profiles and summary financials                                                                        37
Antofagasta (ANTO.L): Looks fairly valued; remain Neutral, 12m PT down to 810p                                             38
First Quantum Minerals (FQM.L): Industry leading growth and strong returns; up to Buy                                      40
Kazakhmys (KAZ.L): High cost asset base most affected by lower prices; reiterate Sell                                      42
Lundin Mining (LUN.TO): M&A overhang removed, time for project delivery; 12m PT to C$4.90, reiterate Buy                   44
Appendix 2: Copper supply / demand balance                                                                                 47
Appendix 3: GS Copper 60 project summaries                                                                                 51
Disclosure Appendix                                                                                                       122



                                 The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of July 5, 2013, unless otherwise stated.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                   2
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60



Window for constructive copper view closing fast, with surplus around the corner


                                 Weaker Chinese demand and copper production growth moving market to transient surplus
                                 After a balanced market in 1H13, our commodities team now forecast the market to be in a surplus of nearly a quarter of a million
                                 tonnes in 2H13. Tightening Chinese financial conditions, an earlier-than-anticipated slowdown in Chinese construction completions,
                                 and weaker-than-expected social housing completions for 2013 have led our commodities analysts to downgrade their Chinese
                                 copper demand growth assumption for 2013 to 6%, from 8%. For 2014, they have raised their Chinese consumption growth forecast
                                 to 5% from 3%, reflecting the likelihood of stronger demand after the implementation of China’s new urbanization plan and stronger
                                 growth in social housing completions. Despite this, and their continued assumption of a strong ex-Chinese demand growth rebound
                                 in 2014, we continue to expect the market to move into a moderate surplus of c.400kt as supply growth accelerates to 4.6% pa in
                                 2014-15E from 3.7% in 2013E (relative to trend growth of c.2%).



                                 We expect near-term prices to trend down but remain supported on marginal cost
                                 We believe that the copper price in 2014 will trade around the marginal cash cost level plus sustaining capex, with an average price
                                 forecast of US$6,600/t (c.US300 c/lb). This is similar to what occurred during the 1996/97 supply-driven surplus period. However, we
                                 forecast that the price in 2014 will temporarily undershoot the 90th percentile of the total cash plus sustaining capex cost curve, by
                                 trading down to US$6,200/t in 2Q, in our base case. Should demand deteriorate more than we expect, copper could trade into the
                                 90th percentile of the total cash cost curve (and potentially below it) – as it has done in previous periods of demand-led surplus (such
                                 as the early 1990s and 2008/09).



                                 Upgrade FQM to Buy and reiterate Buy on LUN on attractive valuation and growth
                                 We upgrade First Quantum (12-month price target 1,300p) to Buy from Neutral, reflecting the company’s industry-leading growth
                                 (both near- and long-term), attractive project portfolio and improving cost position. Upcoming near-term catalysts include: (1)
                                 updates relating to progress at the Sentinel greenfield project and smelter project; and (2) completion of the detailed engineering
                                 review of the Cobre Panama project, through which the company is seeking significant capex reductions. We also reiterate our Buy
                                 rating on Lundin (12-month price target C$4.90): M&A overhang on the stock has been removed following the recent acquisition of
                                 the Eagle project from Rio Tinto, which we believe is accretive and contributes to a strong growth profile at Lundin.



                                 Increasing importance of cost position: Reiterate Sell on KAZ, ANTO remains Neutral
                                 We reiterate our Sell rating on Kazakhmys (12-month price target 160p), reflecting the company’s high cost position in a weaker
                                 pricing environment. We expect this to result in further margin compression in a period of flat production and substantial capex, in
                                 turn leading to significant negative free cash flow yields. We maintain our Neutral rating on Antofagasta (12-month price target
                                 810p) as we believe the stock is trading around fair value at current levels and see little by way of potential positive catalysts in the
                                 near term to change our view.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                     3
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                           GS Copper 60



FQM upgraded to Buy – Our thesis in charts
Exhibit 1: Sector-leading volume growth…                                             Exhibit 2: …and improving cost base…                                          Exhibit 3: Leading to +ve earnings momentum

     Kansanshi                Guelb Moghrein   Kevista              Sentinel                           Gross cash costs                   Net cash costs                          Net Income (pre‐exceptionals)               Net income growth
     Las Cruces               Cayeli           Pyhasalmi            Cobre Panama     250                                                                           2,500                                                                          80%
1,200                                                                                      (US c/lb)                                                                        ($ mn)
        Copper (kt)                                                                                                                                                                                                                               70%
                                                                                     200                                                                           2,000                                                                          60%
1,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50%
 800                                                                                 150                                                                           1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  40%

 600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30%
                                                                                     100                                                                           1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  20%
 400
                                                                                                                                                                    500                                                                           10%
                                                                                      50
 200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0%

                                                                                                                                                                      0                                                                           ‐10%
     0                                                                                 0                                                                                      2012        2013E        2014E      2015E       2016E       2017E
      2012            2013E          2014E      2015E         2016E          2017E             2012     2013E             2014E       2015E        2016E   2017E
                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                              Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Exhibit 4: Discounted multiple in forward years                                      Exhibit 5: Strong returns profile                                             Exhibit 6: Increasingly diversified asset base

                          P/E (x)                 EV/EBITDA (x)                                                               CROCI
14                                                                                   25%
        (x)                                                                                                                                                                Pyhasalmi
                                                                                                                                                                              1%           Cobre Panama
12
                                                                                     20%                                                                               Cayeli                  13%
                                                                                                                                                                        2%
10

                                                                                     15%                                                                                                                                      Kansanshi
 8                                                                                                                                                                                                                              31%
                                                                                                                                                                             Las Cruces
                                                                                                                                                                                 7%
 6                                                                                   10%
                                                                                                                                                                           Enterprise
 4                                                                                                                                                                            2%
                                                                                      5%
 2

                                                                                      0%                                                                                                                                                      Guelb 
 0
                                                                                               2012      2013E            2014E       2015E        2016E   2017E                            Sentinel                          Ravensthorpe   Moghrein
              2012      2013E         2014E     2015E       2016E         2017E
                                                                                                                                                                                              28%                                 10%          2%
                                                                                     Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                                                      Kevista
Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                                                                                                                                             4%




                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                4
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                        GS Copper 60



Project commissioning and ramp-ups to boost 2013-15E copper production
                                 We estimate that global mined copper production rose by only 3.3% in 2012, following a fall of c.0.5% in 2011. Many factors
                                 contributed to 2011’s fall in global mine production, most notably the industrial disputes at Escondida and Grasberg, while lower
                                 ore grades, severe weather events, and delays to greenfield commissioning and expansions all played their parts.

                                 We and our commodity analysts expect an aggregate global mined copper production increase of over 600kt or 3.7% in 2013E,
                                 consisting mainly of new production from projects within our GS Copper 60 analysis, as well as production recoveries at operations
                                 such as Escondida and Grasberg, more than offsetting large-scale disruptions such as the Kennecott landslide. We expect a further
                                 acceleration of mined copper supply in 2014/15 and forecast annual mined copper production growth of 4.6% in both years.

                                 Exhibit 7: Copper mine supply growth at record levels in 2013-16E
                                 Copper mine supply 2006-16E
                                  ('000 tonnes)                                                                                                                                         CAGRs
                                                                                    2006      2007      2008     2009    2010    2011    2012    2013E   2014E   2015E   2016E '11-'16E '06-'11
                                    Global Production
                                       Mine Supply                                 15076     15535     15708     15960   16185   16101   16639   17260   18056   18883   19496   3.9%    1.3%
                                        % change                                    1.0%      3.1%      1.1%      1.6%    1.4%   -0.5%    3.3%    3.7%    4.6%    4.6%    3.2%
                                       Refined Production                          17235     17962     18262     18309   19017   19687   19809   20497   21539   22617   23319   3.4%    2.7%
                                        % change                                    4.0%      4.2%      1.7%      0.3%    3.9%    3.5%    0.6%    3.5%    5.1%    5.0%    3.1%

                                    Global Consumption                             17489     17996     17888     17477   19258   19763   19666   20240   21147   22118   23260   3.3%    2.5%
                                        % change y/y                                3.1%      2.9%     -0.6%     -2.3%   10.2%    2.6%   -0.5%    2.9%    4.5%    4.6%    5.2%

                                    Global Supply / Demand Balance                  -254       -34      374       833    -241     -77     143     257    392      500     59

                                    Prices1                                                                                                                                             L.Term1
                                        Cash (annual average; $/t)                   6729      7124       6951   5163    7543    8824    7959    7216    6600    6875    7500               6608
                                        Cash (annual average; c/lb)                   305       323        315    234     342     400     361     327     299     312     340               300
                                  Note: 1.All prices in nominal, except for LT which is in $2013 real terms


                                 Source: Wood Mackenzie, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.


                                 Supply delivery mostly unrisked to 2015E
                                 In our view, it is the continued production rebound from a handful of large incumbent mines, as well as a bulge of advanced larger
                                 projects in 2013-15E, that has the potential to move the copper market into a meaningful surplus in the near term.

                                 Although we believe most of the near-term brownfield projects are essentially de-risked, in the context of historical supply additions
                                 the upcoming growth is vulnerable to potential supply-side issues. However, we have taken a conservative view on the volume
                                 delivery from new projects to appropriately reflect this.

                                 The majority of new production that we forecast to come online in the next two years is either already ramping up or in advanced
                                 stages of construction. Although we highlight continued risks of delays relating to commissioning and ramping up of upcoming
                                 projects, we believe the advanced stage of development of many near-term projects significantly de-risks our view of supply
                                 delivery. Projects already in the ramp-up phase include Glencore Xstrata’s Antapaccay, Freeport/Lundin’s Tenke Fungurume,
                                 Sandfire’s DeGrussa and Vale’s Salobo. We also forecast many projects to commence commercial shipments this year, including
                                 Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi operation in Mongolia, which has been subject to delays recently.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                          5
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                          GS Copper 60


                                    Exhibit 8 indicates that essentially all additional copper production we include in our forecasts is already commissioned and under
                                    ramp-up or construction. Exhibit 9 shows that c.65% of new production (on an attributable basis) in 2013-15E is in the hands of
                                    established industry players, with the bulk of the remainder belonging to minority stakes at projects operated by the majors. The
                                    level of industry and project ownership consolidation is far lower in copper production compared with iron ore for example, where
                                    the top four producers alone contribute c.65% of risked iron ore production growth by 2015E, according to our GS Iron Ore 50 analysis.




Exhibit 8: Most near-term growth already under construction or ramping up                 Exhibit 9: Expect acceleration of copper project delivery in 2013-15E
GS Copper 60 projects volume delivery by status to 2015E                                  GS Copper 60 projects volume delivery by company (attributable) to 2015E

 2,500                                                                                     2,500
          kt Cu                                        +1,094kt y-o-y                               kt Cu                                    +1,094kt y-o-y
                                                                                                                                                              Other
                                                                                                                                                              Antofagasta
 2,000                                                                                     2,000
                                                                                                                                                              BHP Billiton
                                                                                                                                                              Kazakhmys
                                                                        Permitting                                                                            KGHM
 1,500                                                                                     1,500
                                                                                                                                                              Anglo American
                                     +784kt y-o-y                                                                             +784kt y-o-y
                                                                        In construction                                                                       Rio Tinto
                                                                                                                                                              Freeport
 1,000                                                                                     1,000
                                                                        Producing                                                                             Vedanta
                                                                                                                                                              First Quantum
                                                                                                                                                              Southern Copper
   500                                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                              Vale
                                                                                                                                                              Codelco
                                                                                                                                                              Glencore Xstrata
      0                                                                                        0
                  2013E                     2014E          2015E                                            2013E                 2014E          2015E

Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                         6
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60


                                    Market moving to surplus in 2013-15E as supply additions exceed demand…
                                    Our commodities team believes the copper market is in a broader transition to a surplus market, and slower near-term demand
                                    growth in the world’s biggest copper consumer (China) is likely to close the current 'window' of physical copper tightness sooner
                                    than previously expected. This development, together with a sooner-than-anticipated weakening in copper-intensive late-cycle
                                    Chinese construction completions – China's biggest end-use copper market – and increased downside risks to ex-Chinese copper
                                    consumption, has led our commodities analysts to downgrade their global copper consumption growth forecast for 2013 from 3.8%
                                    to 2.9%. In turn, they now forecast a small copper market surplus of c.250kt (2H13 based, with 1H13 in balance to small deficit),
                                    heading into a 2014 surplus of c.400kt.

                                    Exhibits 10-11 show their base case copper market supply/demand balance forecasts, with a surplus emerging in 2013-15E.


Exhibit 10: Near-term copper supply delivery to exceed demand growth…                            Exhibit 11: … resulting in transient surplus around the corner
GS copper supply/demand                                                                          GS copper supply/demand balance to 2016E

24000                                                                                            1000
        kt               Consumption                                                                     kt

                         Refined production                                                                                                                      Base forecast of
23000                                                                                                                                                            growing surplus
                                                                                                  800
                                                                                                                                                                 through to 2015E before
                                                                                                                                                                 returning to balance in
                                                                                                                                                                 2016E+
22000                                                                                             600


21000
                                                                                                  400


20000
                                                                                                  200


19000
                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                         2006    2007    2008    2009     2010    2011    2012   2013E   2014E   2015E    2016E
18000
                                                                                                  ‐200

17000
         2006    2007    2008    2009     2010   2011    2012   2013E   2014E   2015E    2016E    ‐400

Source: Wood Mackenzie, LME, SHFE, Comex, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.           Source: Wood Mackenzie, LME, SHFE, Comex, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.



                                    …resulting in reduced near-term copper price forecast and estimates
                                    The Goldman Sachs ECS team forecasts that the copper price in 2014 will trade around the marginal cash cost level plus sustaining
                                    capex, with an average price forecast of US$6,600/t (c.US300 c/lb). This is similar to what occurred during the 1996/97 supply-driven
                                    surplus period. However, we forecast that the price in 2014 will temporarily undershoot the 90th percentile of the total cash plus
                                    sustaining capex cost curve, by trading down to US$6,200/t in 2Q, in our base case.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                          7
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60


                                 Should demand deteriorate more than we expect, copper could trade into the 90th percentile of the total cash cost curve (and
                                 potentially below it) – as it has done in previous periods of demand-led surplus (such as the early 1990s and 2008/09). We look at
                                 cost curve dynamics in more detail in the following section.

                                 Exhibits 12 and 13 show the new and old copper and gold/silver price forecasts from our ECS team, as well as our revised estimates
                                 within our European copper equity coverage.


                                 Exhibit 12: Lowering price forecasts in the near term, particularly for precious metals
                                 2013-15E copper, gold and silver price forecasts

                                      Commodity                      Spot                 2013E                   2014E                   2015E
                                                                                New        Old     %      New     Old      %      New     Old      %
                                  Base metals
                                  Copper                    US$/t    6,731      7,216     7,648   -6%     6,600   6,925   -5%     6,875   6,875    0%
                                  Precious
                                  Gold                    US$/oz     1,233      1,413     1,470    -4%    1,144   1,353   -15%    1,200   1,250    -4%
                                  Silver                  US$/oz      19.6       24.4      27.6   -11%    20.6     25.5   -19%    21.8     23.6    -7%

                                 Source: Reuters, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.



                                 Exhibit 13: Changes to estimates on lower copper and gold price forecasts
                                 New vs. old estimates for ANTO, FQM, KAZ and LUN

                                                                       Antofagasta                    First Quantum            Kazakhmys                Lundin
                                                                  2013E 2014E 2015E               2013E 2014E 2015E       2013E 2014E 2015E       2013E 2014E 2015E
                                  Revenue (US$ mn)           New 5,695    5,460 5,690             3,910 4,446 6,318       2,908 2,733 3,459        702   684   903
                                                              Old 6,219   5,763 5,693             4,136 4,799 6,511       3,076 2,907 3,489        737   704   903
                                                   % change           -8%        -5%        0%    -5%     -7%     -3%     -5%     -6%     -1%     -5%     -3%      0%
                                  EBITDA (US$ mn)      New           2,534      2,311     2,572   1,706   2,056   3,080    539    312     666      229    249      423
                                                        Old          3,009      2,548     2,580   1,915   2,229   3,141    699    407     573      263    269      423
                                                   % change          -16%        -9%        0%    -11%    -8%     -2%     -23%    -23%    16%     -13%    -7%      0%
                                  EPS (US$ /share)     New           $0.87      $0.80     $0.93   $1.15   $1.19   $1.98   $0.43   $0.07   $0.40   $0.24   $0.24   $0.39
                                                        Old          $1.09      $0.92     $0.94   $1.36   $1.31   $2.01   $0.70   $0.23   $0.31   $0.32   $0.36   $0.45
                                                   % change          -20%       -13%       -1%    -16%    -9%     -2%     -40%    -69%    28%     -23%    -33%    -14%

                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



                                 Returning to marginal cost support; how low can prices fall?
                                 Exhibit 14 shows the quartiling of total cash costs in 2000-13E (blue lines), along with the average and range of copper prices (grey
                                 bars) in those years. On our estimates, the current share prices of the UK-listed copper stocks reflect an average copper price of
                                 US$6,778/t, which is in line with the current spot price. We believe that downside is limited, with marginal cost support in 1Q13
                                 estimated by Wood Mackenzie at US$6,733/t (US305 c/lb) as defined by the 90th percentile of the total cash cost curve including
                                 sustaining capex.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                    8
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                           GS Copper 60


                                 Exhibit 14: Marginal cost producers provide price support in oversupplied markets
                                 Total cash cost of production and copper price (high/low bands) 2000-13E
                                                            10,000



                                                                 9,000



                                                                 8,000




                                   Total cash costs (US$/t Cu)
                                                                 7,000                                                                                                              Limited downside
                                                                         Spot copper price
                                                                                                                                                                                    risk to current
                                                                         Copper price implied in equities
                                                                                                                                                                                    copper price
                                                                 6,000

                                                                                                              90th percentile

                                                                 5,000


                                                                                                    75th percentile
                                                                 4,000



                                                                 3,000



                                                                 2,000



                                                                 1,000

                                                                              25th percentile         50th percentile
                                                                    0
                                                                         2000     2001    2002    2003      2004   2005    2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013E


                                 Source: Wood Mackenzie, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.


                                 In our opinion, the marginal total cash cost of production (defined as C1 cost + indirects and sustaining capex) provides a good
                                 estimate of the floor price for a given commodity, as it is the breakeven level for the 90th percentile of existing operations. At times
                                 of extreme falls in demand, it is possible for prices to fall well below the 90th percentile, as was the case during the global financial
                                 crisis. However, we believe such events are short-lived and the example we have highlighted was further exacerbated by a strong
                                 drawdown of inventories along the supply chain, causing a collapse in demand; prices dipped below the 50th percentile cost in
                                 December 2008, from a previous peak of over US$8,800/t (400c/lb) months earlier. Exhibit 15 shows the 1Q13 copper cost curve.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                         9
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                        GS Copper 60


                                 Exhibit 15: 2013E marginal total cash cost of production of US$6,733/t
                                 2013 copper industry cost curve defined as C1 cost + indirects and sustaining capex
                                                                10,000


                                                                 9,000


                                                                 8,000


                                                                 7,000
                                                                             90th percentile US$6,733/t (US 305c/lb)
                                   Total Cash Cost (US$/t Cu)

                                                                 6,000       4th quartile US$5,697/t (US 258c/lb)


                                                                 5,000


                                                                 4,000


                                                                 3,000


                                                                 2,000


                                                                 1,000

                                                                                       Q1                           Q2                     Q3                      Q4
                                                                    0
                                                                         0            2,000         4,000           6,000      8,000      10,000         12,000   14,000   16,000
                                                                                                                    Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)

                                 Source: Wood Mackenzie




                                 The current copper cost curve becomes very steep, particularly in the last 10%-15% of existing production. In times of strong
                                 demand and tight supply, we have observed substantial price rises as high cost marginal production comes online to meet demand.
                                 However, in a weaker demand environment, the steep nature of the cost curve can also result in sharp falls in the level of cost
                                 support. This is well illustrated in Exhibit 15.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                     10
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                               GS Copper 60


                                 The mining industry has experienced annual cost inflation of 5%-15% in recent years, lifting the 90th percentile of the total cash cost
                                 of copper production in 1Q13 to US$6,733/t (US305 c/lb) from US$5,667/t in 2011. Looking to 2014-15, we outline what longer-term
                                 copper price support levels might look like assuming a conservative 5% inflation level (Exhibit 16).


                                 Exhibit 16: Upward pressure on marginal total cash cost of production
                                 Average and marginal copper production costs

                                  US$/t - c/lb                                               2000       2005       2010       2011       2012      2013-Q1       2014E       2015E
                                                                                                                                                               (5% p.a inflation)
                                  Average cost before by-products                            1,294     1,914      3,005      4,090      4,440        4,473
                                                                                             59 c/lb    87 c/lb   136 c/lb   186 c/lb   201 c/lb    203 c/lb
                                  Average cost including by-products                         1,087     1,038      2,005      2,833      3,439        3,452
                                                                                             49 c/lb    47 c/lb    91 c/lb   129 c/lb   156 c/lb    157 c/lb
                                  Avg. total cash cost (incl. sust. capex)                   1,424     1,565      2,811      3,995      4,672        4,616
                                                                                             65 c/lb    71 c/lb   128 c/lb   181 c/lb   212 c/lb    209 c/lb
                                  75th percentile (total cash cost)                          1,565     2,083      3,373      4,762      5,584        5,697       5,982         6,281
                                                                                             71 c/lb    95 c/lb   153 c/lb   216 c/lb   253 c/lb    258 c/lb    271 c/lb      285 c/lb
                                  90th percentile (total cash cost)                          1,601     2,456      3,560      5,667      6,614        6,733       7,070         7,423
                                                                                             73 c/lb   111 c/lb   162 c/lb   257 c/lb   300 c/lb    305 c/lb    321 c/lb      337 c/lb


                                 Source: Wood Mackenzie, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




                                 Applying a 5% pa inflation rate to the existing marginal cost level lifts the 2014-15 marginal cost estimate to US$7,070/t and
                                 US$7,423/t. Taking a more conservative view on costs, and using the 75th percentile as a basis, the 5% inflation assumption in 2014-
                                 15 results in costs of US$5,982/t and US$6,281/t, respectively. Our existing 2014-15 average copper price forecasts of US$6,600/t and
                                 US$6,875/t suggest cost support between the 75th and 90th percentile of the cost curve during the period.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                             11
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60



Copper equities broadly pricing in current spot copper price
                                 At current share prices, we estimate that the implied long-term copper price is broadly in line with the spot price of c.US$6,783/t
                                 (US308c/lb – July 5 close). In Exhibit 17, we estimate the copper price discounted by the current share prices of Antofagasta, First
                                 Quantum, Kazakhmys and Lundin Mining using three methodologies: (1) the historical average EV/EBITDA multiple of each stock; (2)
                                 the historical average P/E multiple for each stock; and (3) equating our calculated NPV to the current share price.

                                 Exhibit 17: Shares broadly reflecting existing spot copper price
                                 Implied copper price at ANTO, FQM, KAZ and LUN (July 5 close)

                                                             Methodology                       EV/EBITDA                       P/E                         NPV                 Average
                                                          Share price                12M FWD     Implied Cu Price   12M FWD   Implied Cu Price       Implied Cu Price      Implied Cu Price
                                                            /share                   EV/EBITDA    $/t       c/lb      P/E      $/t       c/lb       $/t         c/lb         $/t        c/lb
                                  Antofagasta                785p                         5x     6,743      306       12x     7,355      334       6,634        301         6,911       313
                                  First Quantum              972p                         5x     6,309      286       12x     6,811      309       6,757        306         6,626       301
                                  Kazakhmys                  252p                         4x     6,026      273        9x     7,411      336       6,669        303         6,702       304
                                  Lundin Mining             C$3.90                        5x     7,165      325       12x     7,315      332       6,145        279         6,875       312
                                                      Average computed implied copper price      6,561      298               7,223      328       6,551        297         6,778       307
                                                                                                                                                                             $/t        c/lb
                                                                                                                                      Spot Cu price                         6,783       308
                                                                                                                                      Marginal total cash cost (2013‐Q1)    6,733       305
                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60 average req. price       7,231       328

                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




                                 On our estimates, the European copper stocks are currently factoring in a copper price that is broadly in line with current spot levels,
                                 with First Quantum appearing to factor in the lowest price. This implied price is well below our estimate of the copper price required
                                 for the GS Copper 60 projects to be economically viable (>15% IRR).

                                 This implied copper price in the equities, as well as current spot levels, are in line with the marginal total cash cost of production
                                 including sustaining capex, as illustrated in Exhibits 14-15, indicating potentially limited downside. However, we recognize the
                                 steepness of the cost curve around the marginal cost level. With spot copper trading around the marginal cost level, we believe high
                                 cost operations may temporarily go offline as margins are compressed. This could result in a fall in the marginal cost support level,
                                 and we believe marginal cost support will likely be within the 75th-90th percentile of the cost curve.

                                 Moving the analysis to reflect what is being priced in on a two-year-forward view, we see little change to our estimates at
                                 Antofagasta (0.4% lower) and Kazakhmys (unchanged), reflecting a lack of volume growth in the period. However, we calculate an
                                 implied copper price of US$6,056/t (8.6% lower) for First Quantum and US$6,438/t (6.4% lower) for Lundin on a two-year-forward
                                 view, reflecting the increasing production profile and slightly improving cost position at both companies. This differential going
                                 forward suggests the market is not fully factoring in First Quantum and Lundin’s near-term growth at this stage.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                   12
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60



Existing supply susceptible to ongoing disruptions, but insufficient to offset surplus
                                 The copper market is challenged by declining open pit production, stemming from ongoing operational issues relating to declining
                                 grades, pit wall failures and other technical issues, in addition to various environmental, political and labour risks. Since 2005, the
                                 copper industry has faced mine disruptions that have removed on average more than 1 mn tonnes or c.6.5% of annual copper production
                                 compared to budget. We expect this trend to continue and, given our expectation of an acceleration of copper production additions
                                 through to 2015E, we believe commissioning delays and slower ramp-up will be a larger source of potential supply disruptions. In 1H13,
                                 the biggest disruption events include the pit wall slide at Kennecott and the temporary suspension of Grasberg operations following a
                                 fatal tunnel collapse. Exhibit 18 illustrates the magnitude of mine disruptions by type since 2005, with 2013 ytd tracking slightly behind
                                 previous years. This implies a higher level of disruption is needed in 2H13E to match our c.6% disruption assumption.


                                 Exhibit 18: Disruptions responsible for average annual loss of >1 mn tonnes of copper supply or c.6.5% of budgeted production
                                 Copper supply disruptions 2005-2013 ytd

                                  1200                                                                                               9.0%
                                   (kt)
                                                                                                                                     8.0%
                                  1000
                                                                                                                                     7.0%        Other

                                                                                                                                                 Grades
                                   800                                                                                               6.0%
                                                                                                                                                 Weather

                                                                                                                                     5.0%        Slow
                                   600
                                                                                                                                                 Technical
                                                                                                                                     4.0%
                                                                                                                                                 Strikes

                                   400                                                                                               3.0%        Pit Walls

                                                                                                                                                 Assumed
                                                                                                                                     2.0%        disruption %
                                   200                                                                                                           % change to
                                                                                                                                                 annual plan
                                                                                                                                     1.0%


                                      0                                                                                              0.0%
                                            2005        2006        2007        2008         2009   2010   2011   2012    2013‐YTD

                                 Source: Wood Mackenzie, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                  13
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60



FQM and LUN preferred on attractive growth; KAZ least preferred on compressing margin
                                 We upgrade First Quantum to Buy from Neutral, reflecting the company’s industry-leading growth (both near- and long-term),
                                 attractive project portfolio and improving cost position. We also reiterate our Buy rating on Lundin, with the M&A overhang
                                 removed following the recent acquisition of the Eagle project from Rio Tinto; we believe this acquisition is accretive and contributes
                                 to a strong growth profile at Lundin.

                                 We reiterate our Sell rating on Kazakhmys, reflecting the company’s high cost position in a weaker pricing environment; we expect
                                 this to result in further margin compression in a period of flat production and substantial capex, in turn leading to significant
                                 negative free cash flow yields. We maintain our Neutral rating on Antofagasta as we believe the stock is trading around fair value at
                                 current levels and see few potential positive catalysts in the near term to change our view.

                                 In this section, we look at cost, growth and free cash flow metrics as applied to Antofagasta, First Quantum, Kazakhmys and Lundin
                                 in more detail. Exhibit 19 shows our updated ratings and price targets for our European copper equity coverage.


                                 Exhibit 19: Updated ratings and 12-month price targets for ANTO, FQM, KAZ, LUN


                                                                      Rating            Share                                Implied                                             Price
                                                                                                 Price      Time   Share                                                                 Change
                                           Company                                       price                               upside/                Methodology                 target
                                                                                                target     frame   price                                                                   (%)
                                                                  Old        New       currency                            (downside)                                            (old)

                                  Antofagasta plc        Neutral Neutral                   £       810p    12m     785p        3%       EV/EBITDA multiple on 2014‐15E EBITDA    935p     (13%)
                                  First Quantum Minerals Neutral  Buy                      £      1,300p   12m     972p       34%       EV/EBITDA multiple on 2014‐15E EBITDA   1,225p      6%
                                  Kazakhmys plc           Sell    Sell                     £       160p    12m     252p      (36%)      EV/EBITDA multiple on 2014‐15E EBITDA    330p     (52%)
                                  Lundin Mining           Buy     Buy                      C$      $4.90   12m     $3.90      26%       EV/EBITDA multiple on 2014‐15E EBITDA    $5.40     (9%)
                                  * Denotes member of our Pan Europe Conviction Investment List


                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                          14
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60




                                 A focus on unit costs in a weaker copper price environment
                                 Kazakhmys exhibits the highest operating leverage in our European copper equity coverage, reflecting the company’s high cost
                                 position at existing operations. This results in margin compression in 2014-15E on our revised commodity price estimates, with
                                 EBITDA margins falling to c.15% from 19% in 2013E, 34% in 2012 and c.50% previously. Exhibit 20 is Wood Mackenzie’s 2013 total
                                 cash + sustaining capex cost curve estimate, showing that several Kazakhmys operations lie in the fourth quartile and are running at
                                 a loss on current spot copper prices.


                                 Exhibit 20: Large proportion of Kazakhmys mines at top end of industry cost curve and loss-making on total cash basis
                                 2013E copper cost curve

                                                      12,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             KAZ - Dzhezkazgan
                                                      10,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           KAZ - Karaganda
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        KAZ - Balkhash
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ANTO - Michilla
                                                                                                                                                                                                        FQM - Guelb Moghrein
                                   Total cash cost (US$/t Cu)




                                                                8,000




                                                                                                                                           FCX/LUN - Tenke-Fungurume
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      c.10% of existing copper




                                                                                                                                                                       ANTO - El Tesoro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      mines operating at a cash



                                                                                                                                           FQM - Kansanshi
                                                                6,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      loss including several KAZ
                                                                             ANTO - Los Pelambres



                                                                                                     FQM - Las Cruces




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      operations. ANTO hedges
                                                                                                    KAZ - East Mines


                                                                                                                        FQM - Cayeli
                                                                             ANTO - Esperanza




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      sales from Michilla
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      reducing exposure to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      weaker price environment.
                                                                4,000




                                                                2,000




                                                                        Q1                                                                Q2                                              Q3                                   Q4
                                                                   0
                                                                                                        3,950                                        7,900                                     11,850                                     15,800
                                                                                                                                       Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)

                                 Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  15
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                               GS Copper 60


                                 We now compare the cost position of the European copper miners. Kazakhmys is a higher cost producer (Exhibit 21), with gross
                                 cash costs close to US$3,500/t, or US160 c/lb, higher than at its peers in 2013, on our estimates; we expect this spread to be
                                 maintained. We expect Kazakhmys’ gross cash costs to continue to climb to 1H15E, in line with our assumptions of ongoing mining
                                 cost inflation and exacerbated by the company’s lack of production growth in the period.

                                 At Antofagasta, we forecast a slight increase in gross costs in the near term, while at Lundin we expect gross cash costs to come off
                                 slightly, mainly due to Tenke performance. First Quantum is the outlier of the group and we forecast gross cash costs to decline in
                                 the near term as the company ramps up production at Kansanshi and benefits from lower sulphuric acid input costs once the
                                 smelter project is commissioned. The addition of Inmet’s European-based assets had an immediate positive effect on group cash
                                 costs, with the company reducing guidance by US10 c/lb.


                                 Exhibit 21: Kazakhmys has the highest gross cash cost position
                                 Gross cash costs 2011-17E

                                  8000
                                            US$/t
                                                                                                               KAZ
                                  7000


                                  6000


                                  5000

                                                                                                               ANTO
                                  4000
                                                                                                               LUN

                                                                                                               FQM
                                  3000


                                  2000
                                                2011             2012             2013E    2014E     2016E         2017E

                                 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                             16
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                  GS Copper 60


                                 Turning to net cash costs, also referred to as C1 cash cost in the industry, we note a very different story, with Kazakhmys historically
                                 having the lowest cost. This is due to significant byproduct credits from the company’s zinc, silver and gold production. Exhibit 22
                                 shows the proportion of byproduct credits to total copper production based on copper equivalent units.


                                 Exhibit 22: Strong byproduct credits at Kazakhmys and Lundin serve to significantly lower net copper cash costs
                                 2011-17E copper and byproducts production

                                                                                                    2011     2012    2013E     2014E      2015E     2016E      2017E
                                  Antofagasta               Copper (kt)                               641      710      714       711        702        730       743
                                                            Gold (koz) ‐ Cu by‐product                197      300      276       311        318        319       318
                                                            Silver (koz) ‐ Cu by‐product            2,633    3,141    2,499     2,543      2,581      2,588     2,581
                                                            Molybdenum (kt) ‐ Cu by‐product            10       12        9         8         10         10        10
                                                            Total Cu by‐products (Cu equivalent)       83      118       93        92        100         92        92
                                                            % of copper production                   13%      17%      13%       13%        14%        13%       12%

                                  First Quantum             Copper (kt)                              266      307      419        523       693        860        991
                                                            Gold (koz) ‐ Cu by‐product               175      202      225        248       283        329        369
                                                            Nickel (kt) ‐ primary                      4       29       35         39        62         76         76
                                                            Zinc (kt) ‐ Cu by‐product                  0        0       46         59        59         59         59
                                                            Total by‐products (Cu equivalent)         31       42       57         62        68         70         76
                                                            % of copper production                   12%      14%      14%        12%       10%         8%         8%

                                  Kazakhmys                 Copper (kt)                               308      295      291       293        351        455       469
                                                            Gold (koz) ‐ Cu by‐product                151      129       99       130        189        292       327
                                                            Silver (koz) ‐ Cu by‐product           13,137   12,643   11,611    11,600     15,114     22,066    25,777
                                                            Zinc (kt) ‐ Cu by‐product                 140      152      128       140        167        220       261
                                                            Total by‐products (Cu equivalent)         114      114       94       105        134        175       204
                                                            % of copper production                   37%      39%      32%       36%        38%        39%       43%
                                  Lundin                    Copper (kt)                               106      102      118       119        139        153       160
                                                            Silver (koz) ‐ Zn by‐product            1,691    2,496    2,235     2,347      2,570      2,701     2,926
                                                            Zinc (kt) ‐ primary                       111      122      122       145        168        180       188
                                                            Lead (kt) ‐ Zn by‐product                  41       38       37        34         34         38        42
                                                            Nickel (kt) ‐ primary                       0        2        6         4         19         23        23
                                                            Cobalt (kt) ‐ Cu by‐product                 3        3        3         3          3          3         4
                                                            Total by‐products (Cu equivalent)          11       10       10        14         14         14        16
                                                            % of copper production                   10%      10%        9%      12%        10%          9%      10%
                                 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                17
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60


                                 As we expected, Kazakhmys’ byproducts make up a significant proportion of core copper production, c.3-4 times higher than at its
                                 peers, explaining the large difference between the company’s gross and net costs, significantly greater than at peer companies. Our
                                 current forecast of a steep C1 cost increase in 2013 at Kazakhmys reflects our updated lower gold and silver price forecasts, in addition
                                 to company guidance of gross cost pressure. Kazakhmys no longer has C1 costs in line with its European peers as it did prior to 2011, with
                                 declining grades and general cost inflation having a significant impact. However, we see cost relief in 2H15E with the commissioning
                                 and ramp-up of the large-scale Bozshakol project, although we expect Kazakhmys’ C1 costs to remain well above those of peers.

                                 Exhibit 23: Net cash costs (C1) benefit from strong by-product output, but affected by weaker precious metals pricing
                                 C1 cash costs 2011-17E

                                  6000
                                           US$/t
                                  5500

                                  5000
                                                                                                           KAZ
                                  4500

                                  4000

                                  3500
                                                                                                           ANTO
                                  3000
                                                                                                           FQM
                                  2500
                                                                                                           LUN
                                  2000
                                              2011           2012          2013E           2014E   2016E    2017E

                                 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



                                 FQM and LUN offer strongest growth to 2015E
                                 Looking at the growth profiles offered by the copper equities, FQM and Lundin are clear standouts, both within the copper space
                                 and compared with the broader large cap mining space. First Quantum offers a c.20% CAGR in production over 2012-15E on our
                                 estimates, reflecting a combination of brownfield and greenfield project delivery in the period, including the gradual expansion of
                                 the Kansanshi oxide and sulphide circuits and the commissioning of the Sentinel project in 2014E. FQM also offers potential longer-
                                 term growth through the Cobre Panama project, which we expect to come online in 2017E; however, we highlight the negative
                                 impact on the company’s free cash flow generation in the near term (Exhibit 24). Nonetheless, we believe the company’s balance
                                 sheet remains solid, with gearing averaging c.18% (2013-15E) and deleveraging taking place in future years. First Quantum is
                                 currently undertaking a detailed engineering review of the Cobre Panama project, targeting a significant capex reduction, which
                                 adds upside potential to our project valuation and the company’s overall near-term free cash flow and balance sheet position.
                                 Reducing development capex by US$1 bn relative to our base assumption would result in average 2014-16E FCF improving by c.5%
                                 and up to over 12% if the project were not to go ahead. In 2017E+, we estimate FCF yields well in excess of 20%.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                 18
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60


                                 Exhibit 24: FQM and LUN offer strongest growth, but FQM near-term FCF affected by spending on Cobre Panama
                                 2014-16E FCF yield vs. 2012-15E copper equivalent growth

                                                                                                          25%




                                                                            First Quantum Minerals
                                                                                                          20%



                                                                                                                                                                               Lundin Mining Corporation

                                  Cu equiv. Growth CY2012‐15E                                             15%



                                                                                                                            Rio Tinto plc

                                                                                                          10%
                                                                                                                                                                                       Boliden
                                                                                                                                      BHP Billiton Plc


                                                                                                                                                                                                 Vedanta Resources
                                                                Kazakhmys                                                                     Kumba Iron Ore
                                                                                                                                                                        Glencore Xstrata plc
                                                                                                           5%
                                                                                              Anglo American plc


                                                                                                                                                         Norsk Hydro

                                                                                                           0%
                                    ‐10.0%                                      ‐5.0%                        0.0%                            5.0%         Antofagasta plc
                                                                                                                                                                            10.0%                          15.0%




                                                                                                          ‐5%      Average FCF yield 2014‐2016E

                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.


                                 Lundin’s c.16% CAGR in production over 2012-15E results from the completion of ramp-up at Tenke Fungurume’s Phase 2
                                 expansion, as well as the commissioning of the recently acquired Eagle polymetallic mine. We also expect Lundin to continue
                                 receiving cash reimbursements from Tenke and look for updates on further expansions at the operation.

                                 We forecast limited growth at Antofagasta: the only approved project is Antucoya, which is due to come online in 2015E and ramp
                                 up to 80kpa. This growth will be partly offset by the closure of operations at Antofagasta’s higher cost c.40ktpa Michilla operation
                                 around the same time. We have little visibility on organic growth outside Antucoya. Potential options this decade include the
                                 Esperanza Sur and Encuentro Oxides projects, but we see these as highly capital intensive and they do not screen well on our GS
                                 Copper 60 incentive price curve (Exhibit 25).




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                 19
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60


                                 Exhibit 25: FQM and LUN projects are very well positioned on GS incentive price curve, ANTO and KAZ less so




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ANTO - Antucoya
                                                                      10,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                            ANTO - Encuentro Sulphides


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ANTO - Esperanza Sur

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                KAZ - Aktogay
                                                                       9,000




                                                                                                                                                                                  KAZ - Bozshakol
                                  Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)    8,000




                                                                                                                                FQM - Cobre Panama

                                                                                                                                                     FQM - Haquira
                                                                       7,000
                                                                                   FQM - Kansanshi Sulphide
                                                                               FCX/LUN - Tenke Fungurume
                                                                                 FQM - Sentinel




                                                                       6,000




                                                                       5,000




                                                                                                              Q1           Q2                                                Q3                                                                      Q4
                                                                       4,000
                                                                                                                   3,000                                             6,000                          9,000                                                                       12,000
                                                                                                                           Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)

                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates


                                 Exhibit 25 also highlights Kazakhmys’ upcoming growth projects as being third and fourth quartile, according to our analysis.
                                 Kazakhmys’ copper production profile should see a strong increase from 2015E as the Bozshakol project is due to commence
                                 commercial production, followed by first production from the Aktogay oxide and sulphide ore bodies. However, in the interim, we
                                 forecast a flat production profile, continued unit cost pressure and negative free cash flow generation (see Exhibit 24).




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   20
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               GS Copper 60



Lower copper price environment to affect capital-intensive project economics
                                 The economics of many of the GS Copper 60 projects are short of compelling, owing to the high capital intensities stemming mainly
                                 from increased infrastructure requirements and the larger relative scale of required mining and milling operations. We calculate an
                                 average copper price requirement of US$7,231/t (US328c/lb, real 2013 US$) and a fourth-quartile requirement of US$7,882/t (US358 c/lb,
                                 real 2013 US$) to deliver a 15% IRR. Exhibit 26 shows our copper incentive price curve for all GS Copper 60 projects.

                                 Exhibit 26: GS Copper 60 projects require an average copper price of US$7,231/t to generate a 15% IRR




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oyu Tolgoi open pit only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Quebrada Blanca
                                                           10,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Frieda River
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Antucoya
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Olympic Dam Phase 1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Relincho
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        El Moro
                                                                       9,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Andina Phase 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Esperanza Sur
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Encuentro Sulphides




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Aynak
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Ministro Mina Hales
                                                                                                                                                                                                   average required copper price of




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Schaft Creek
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aktogay


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Galeno
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Encuentro Oxides
                                                                                                                                                                                                   US$7,231 /t (US 328 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Caserones
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Michiquillay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Toromocho


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Udokan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Salobo 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Quellaveco
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sierra Gorda
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Collahuasi GL4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Las Bambas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Escondida OGP1
                                   Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Radomiro Tomic
                                                                       8,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Constancia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Bozshakol
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4th quartile:




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tampakan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      US$7,882 /t (US 358 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Santo Domingo




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Tia Maria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Wafi Golpu
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Inca de Oro
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Cerro Verde


                                                                                                                                                                                                            El Pachon
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Canariaco
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cobre Panama
                                                                                                                                                                                               Chuquicamata U/G




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Haquira
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Lubambe
                                                                                                                                                                                               Konkola Deep

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cuajone
                                                                       7,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                Morenci
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Pebble
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Current price indicates
                                                                                                                               Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave




                                                                                                                                                                                           Salobo 2
                                                                                                                                                                                   Grasberg DMLZ


                                                                                                                                                                                      Antapaccay




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         that over half of GS
                                                                                                                                                                                      Agua Rica
                                                                                                                                                                                    Los Bronces

                                                                                                                                                                                       Kamoa
                                                                                                               Buenavista DC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Copper 60 projects may
                                                                                                                                                                     Grasberg BC
                                                                                                                                                        Resolution




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         not be economically
                                                                                                    Kansanshi Sulphide




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         viable if built.
                                                                                                 Buenavista SX/EW III




                                                                       6,000
                                                                                                       Toquepala
                                                                                                      Sentinel
                                                                               Tenke Fungurume DeGrussa




                                                                       5,000




                                                                                                                                                       Q1                                              Q2                                                                 Q3                                           Q4
                                                                       4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                      3,000                              6,000                                                                   9,000                                                12,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)
                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            21
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                 GS Copper 60


                                 Our revised estimate of an incentive copper price of US$7,231/t for the GS Copper 60 is broadly in line with our previous estimate
                                 (published in our GS Copper 60 report of September 10, 2012), and is only US$111/t (1.6%) higher than the US$7,120/t average,
                                 mainly on account of slight upward revisions to capex guidance by companies for several projects since September. The addition
                                 and replacement of some projects to the previous list has had a broadly neutral effect on the calculated required price, reflecting a
                                 normal distribution of these projects along our required price curve.

                                 We have removed the Antamina expansion, Lumwana expansion and Reko Diq from the list. At Antamina, as the project has already
                                 been ramped up to full capacity, we forecast no further production growth in 2013E+. We remove the Lumwana expansion and Reko
                                 Diq projects even from our unrisked project list, reflecting our view that the projects are unlikely to proceed at this stage.

                                 New additions to our GS Copper 60 analysis include Ivanplats’ Kamoa project in DRC, Grasberg’s DMLZ and BC underground
                                 projects, and Capstone Mining’s Santo Domingo project in Chile.

                                 These changes, along with the expanded list of projects, have no impact on the GS Copper 60 average capital intensity per unit of
                                 copper equivalent production, which remains broadly unchanged at US$15,933/t. We highlight that this is well ahead of historical
                                 levels of less than US$5,000/t. The primary reasons for this sharp escalation from historical levels relate to the ongoing decline of
                                 copper ore grades, requiring much larger mining and milling capacities, along with the growing proportion of projects located in
                                 developing economies and remote areas with little existing infrastructure. In addition, there are more greenfield than brownfield
                                 projects in the GS Copper 60, 37 versus 25. By their nature, brownfield projects have lower capital intensities than greenfield
                                 projects, owing to the existing infrastructure supporting the expansions. The average capital intensity (on a copper equivalent basis)
                                 of the 25 brownfield projects we have evaluated is US$14,679/t, compared with US$17,520/t for the 37 greenfield projects. Moreover,
                                 projects already in construction and due online sooner show lower exposure to capital cost inflation. These two characteristics are
                                 true for most projects at the lower end of the curve in Exhibit 26. At the higher end of the curve, we see mainly highly capital-
                                 intensive greenfield projects, some of which require significant infrastructure beyond the scope of the mining operations, including
                                 roads or power stations. For such projects, we associate a higher risk of delays, capex overruns and potential cancellations.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                 22
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                          GS Copper 60



Not all announced projects to see the light of day – risking the potential supply delivery
                                 As mentioned earlier, many of the projects we have evaluated do not have compelling economics and require a relatively high
                                 sustained copper price to ensure viability. This is particularly true for longer-dated greenfield projects; however, as our analysis
                                 clearly illustrates, some brownfield expansions carry surprisingly high capital intensities.

                                 The lower economic attractiveness of new projects, along with the current macroeconomic climate, has driven mining companies to
                                 re-evaluate their capex programs in copper and other commodities, with a strong focus on reducing capital intensity. As a result, we
                                 expect continued company announcements of project deferrals and/or cancellations, as well as a lower likelihood of new project
                                 approvals. Barrick Gold’s Lumwana copper mine expansion and Pascua Lama gold/copper project are examples of this: the
                                 Lumwana expansion was cancelled following a large impairment charge reflecting poor performance at the underlying asset, while
                                 at Pascua Lama, environmental challenges continue to cause delays, resulting in steep capex budget increases and the company
                                 seeking to slow construction.

                                 This does not come as a major surprise and we expect additional companies to engage in more extended feasibility studies to
                                 potentially increase the overall return of their projects, and of course lower the minimum required copper price. While such studies
                                 are ongoing, the selected projects will be delayed and potentially permanently deferred if the results of the study do not support
                                 pushing the projects forward. This places further risk on volume delivery from announced but unapproved projects, particularly over
                                 the longer term.



                                 Already sanctioned projects look more attractive ignoring sunk costs…
                                 The incentive price curve in Exhibit 26 includes all projects captured in our GS Copper 60 analysis. However, close to half of the
                                 projects have already received board approval and are under construction. The average required copper price for this subset of projects
                                 is US$6,913 /t (US314 c/lb), with an associated IRR of 13.7%. This compares with US$7,231/t (US328 c/lb) and a 12.7% IRR for the full list
                                 of projects. The economics of these projects are further enhanced when ignoring sunk costs, as illustrated in Exhibit 27.


                                 Exhibit 27: Project economics look more attractive when ignoring sunk costs
                                 Project economic of risked and unrisked projects on a total spend and sunk cost basis

                                                                                              Project economics from first spend        Project economics ignoring suck costs
                                                                               Unit capex  NPV @ 11%                       Cu price  NPV @ 11%                       Cu price 
                                                                                                                                                         IRR     
                                                                LOM output    (US$ / t)    Cu  (incl. sunk)      IRR       required      (2013+)                     required      
                                                                                                                                                      (2013+)
                                                                                  equ.          (US$ mn)                 @ 15% IRR (US$ mn)                         @ 15% IRR
                                  GS Copper 60 total             12033 ktpa     $15,933 /t       $28,390        12.7%      $7,231 /t      $66,154       16.6%        $6,235 /t
                                  Risked projects                 4588 ktpa    $14,014 /t       $19,264        13.7%       $6,913 /t      $55,353        35.4%        $4,866 /t
                                  Unrisked projects               6855 ktpa    $17,759 /t        $8,844        12.0%       $7,447 /t      $10,294        12.2%        $7,373 /t

                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                          23
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GS Copper 60


                                                                                                                                                     It is clear that project economics improve significantly when ignoring sunk costs, particularly for projects at more advanced stages
                                                                                                                                                     of development. The required copper price for a 15% IRR at risked projects falls by c.30% to US$4,866 /t (US221 c/lb), well below the
                                                                                                                                                     current spot price and our long-term copper price forecast of c.US$6,600 /t (US300 c/lb). That being the case, we see little risk of
                                                                                                                                                     these projects being cancelled, which supports our view of copper production growth in the near term.

                                                                                                                                                     We highlight, however, that not all projects currently under construction produce attractive economics, even after ignoring sunk
                                                                                                                                                     costs. Exhibits 28 and 29 show our incentive price curve for risked projects both on a total capex and sunk cost basis.


Exhibit 28: Including spent capex, most projects don’t make the cut…                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Exhibit 29: … but economics improve substantially when ignoring sunk costs
GS Copper 60 incentive price curve on total capex basis                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              GS Copper 60 incentive price curve on sunk cost basis




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oyu Tolgoi open pit only
                                    10,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Antucoya
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          9,000
                                     9,000

                                                                                                                                                                              average required copper price of




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Ministro Mina Hales




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Aktogay




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Antucoya
                                                                                                                                                                              US$6,913 /t (US 314 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Caserones
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Toromocho

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Salobo 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          8,000                                                                                                                                                             average required copper price of




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sierra Gorda




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aktogay
Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            US$4,866 /t (US 221 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Las Bambas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Escondida OGP1
                                     8,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Constancia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Bozshakol




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Escondida OGP1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Cerro Verde




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4th quartile:                                                                                                                                                7,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Cerro Verde
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             US$7,575 /t (US 344 c/lb)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Lubambe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Konkola Deep




                                     7,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GS long-term price:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Morenci




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  c.US$6,600 /t (US 300 c/lb)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Salobo 2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Ministro Mina Hales
                                                                                                                                                        Grasberg DMLZ




                                                                                                                                                                                           Antapaccay




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Kansanshi Sulphide
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bozshakol
                                                                                                                                                                             Los Bronces




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Buenavista DC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GS long-term price:




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sierra Gorda




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Constancia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Las Bambas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Grasberg DMLZ
                                                                                                                     Buenavista DC




                                                                                                                                       Grasberg BC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Buenavista SX/EW III




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Morenci
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            c.US$6,600 /t (US 300 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Grasberg BC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Konkola Deep
                                                                        Kansanshi Sulphide




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Caserones
                                                                      Buenavista SX/EW III




                                     6,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Lubambe
                                                                                                         Toquepala




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Toromocho




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sentinel
                                                                                             Sentinel




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Toquepala
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4th quartile:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 US$5,227 /t (US 237 c/lb)
                                                           DeGrussa




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Antapaccay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Salobo 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Los Bronces
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oyu Tolgoi open pit only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Tenke Fungurume

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  DeGrussa
                                     5,000
                                             Tenke Fungurume




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Salobo 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4,000




                                                                                                    Q1                                                                  Q2                                                                                    Q3                                                                                     Q4                                                                                                                                                                                 Q1                                                                                           Q2                                                                                 Q3                                                                               Q4
                                     4,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3,000
                                                                                                                                     1,150                                                                            2,300                                                                              3,450                                                                                 4,600                                                                                                                                                                                    1,150                                                                            2,300                                                                                             3,450                                                         4,600
                                                                                                                                                     Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)

Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

                                                                                                                                                     Examples of projects that still require an elevated copper incentive price after ignoring sunk costs include Antofagasta’s Antucoya
                                                                                                                                                     project, which was board approved earlier this year following a temporary suspension and detailed review. We estimate total capex
                                                                                                                                                     of US$2 bn, with c.US$500 mn spent to date. Ignoring sunk costs, we calculate a 9.2% IRR and required copper price of US$7,878/t
                                                                                                                                                     (US357 c/lb), far inferior to the average of other risked projects. Kazakhmys’ Aktogay project is similarly positioned, with a 10.6% IRR
                                                                                                                                                     and required copper price of US$7,516 /t.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         24
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              GS Copper 60


                                 Clearly, the timing of these projects plays an important role: most projects in the first quartile in Exhibit 29 are already in production,
                                 essentially needing only to cover unit operating costs, while projects in the fourth quartile are at an earlier stage of capex.
                                 Accordingly, the curve is for illustrative purposes only to evaluate the incentive price relative to current spot and long-term
                                 assumptions, and not for relative project rankings.

                                 … but unsanctioned projects at risk in current price environment
                                 Exhibit 30 shows that unsanctioned projects, on average, produce marginal economics and require an incentive price that is well in
                                 excess of current spot levels and our existing long-term price forecast.


                                 Exhibit 30: GS Copper 60 incentive price curve for unsanctioned projects




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Quebrada Blanca
                                                                      10,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Frieda River
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Olympic Dam Phase 1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Relincho
                                                                                                                                                                                                   average required copper price of
                                                                       9,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Andina Phase 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                   US$7,447 /t (US 338 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Esperanza Sur
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Encuentro Sulphides




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aynak
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Schaft Creek




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Galeno
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Encuentro Oxides
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Michiquillay


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Udokan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Quellaveco
                                  Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Collahuasi GL4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4th quartile:




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Radomiro Tomic
                                                                       8,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      US$8,065 /t (US 366 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Tampakan
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Santo Domingo




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tia Maria
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Inca de Oro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  El Pachon
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Canariaco
                                                                                                                                                                                 Cobre Panama
                                                                                                                                        Chuquicamata U/G




                                                                                                                                                                                                Haquira
                                                                                                                                                                       Cuajone


                                                                       7,000
                                                                                                                                                              Pebble
                                                                               Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave




                                                                                                                    Agua Rica
                                                                                                                                Kamoa




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GS long-term price:
                                                                                                       Resolution




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      c.US$6,600 /t (US 300 c/lb)

                                                                       6,000




                                                                       5,000




                                                                                                              Q1                                                                                  Q2                                                                                   Q3                                                                                                        Q4
                                                                       4,000
                                                                                                                                                           1,710                                                                            3,420                                                                                     5,130                                                                                          6,850
                                                                                                                                                                                                Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)

                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           25
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                  GS Copper 60


                                 Our analysis of unsanctioned projects consists of 31 copper projects (11 greenfield and 20 brownfield) with start dates from 2016E to
                                 2021E, totalling c.7mtpa of copper production at full capacity. We exclude gold/copper projects Cerro Casale, El Moro and Wafi
                                 Golpu from our incentive price analysis, as we believe those projects will be evaluated relative to an incentive gold price framework;
                                 however, we acknowledge the significant copper production potential if they proceed.

                                 On our estimates, only about a quarter of these projects are economically viable at our long-term price and we believe many of the
                                 projects may face challenges causing delays to initial company plans. These challenges may be in the form of:

                                     Environmental-social, permitting: New mines or mine expansions are becoming increasingly challenging both in developed and
                                      emerging economies. Issues faced by miners include water and power availability, community relocations and other
                                      environmental concerns raised by the localities.

                                     Fiscal/sovereign: This challenge applies more to emerging economies, where a mining code may only be very recently
                                      implemented and subject to change, or might not be in place at all. Associated risks revolve mainly around taxation & royalties
                                      and government ownership. The Oyu Tolgoi project is a good example of this risk, given recent delays relating to a request
                                      from the Mongolian government.

                                 We acknowledge the fact that our project assumptions are likely more conservative than those used by project owners, particularly
                                 in relation to company guided capex estimates. Following the many announced capex over-runs for recently commissioned projects
                                 or projects currently under construction, we believe it more prudent to factor in capex inflation within our analysis. As a result, our
                                 aggregate capex estimate for the 31 unapproved copper projects is US$136 bn, which compares with initial company estimates of
                                 US$107 bn. We believe this to be a fair assessment of the potential capex inflation, reflecting that most projects in this list are many
                                 years away from commissioning. In addition, we believe the preliminary capex estimates for projects with only scoping/pre-feasibility
                                 studies completed, such as Haquira, Michiquillay, Pebble and Resolution, are dated and understate the current pricing environment.

                                 In contrast to the above, we highlight Cobre Panama – currently undergoing a detailed engineering review by First Quantum
                                 following the Inmet acquisition – as a project for which we see potential for a sizable capex estimate reduction. Exhibits 31 and 32
                                 show the Cobre Panama project on our incentive price curve both on a total capex basis and sunk cost basis, illustrating the
                                 project’s position using our base US$5.5 bn capex assumption and a reduced US$4.5 bn capex assumption.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                26
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 GS Copper 60



Exhibit 31: Cobre Panama looks marginal using base US$5.5 bn capex                                                                                                                          Exhibit 32: Considering c.US$500 mn already spent, project economics
assumption on total cost basis with any capex cut improving economics                                                                                                                       attractive at GS LT price for both base and reduced capex scenarios
GS Copper 60 (unsanctioned) incentive price curve on total capex basis                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60 (unsanctioned) incentive price curve on sunk cost basis

                                    10,000                                                                                                                                                                                      10,000




                                     9,000                                                                                                                                                                                       9,000
Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)




                                                                                                                                                                                            Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)
                                     8,000                                                                                                                                                                                       8,000




                                     7,000                                                                                                                                                                                       7,000



                                                                                                                                                              GS long-term price:                                                                                                                                                                  GS long-term price:
                                                                                                                                                              c.US$6,600 /t (US 300 c/lb)                                                                                                                                                          c.US$6,600 /t (US 300 c/lb)

                                     6,000                                                                                                                                                                                       6,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (base case US$5.5 bn capex)
                                                                                       (base case US$5.5 bn capex)
                                                  (US$4.5 bn capex scenario)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (US$4.5 bn capex scenario)
                                     5,000                                                                                                                                                                                       5,000
                                                  Cobre Panama




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Cobre Panama
                                                                                       Cobre Panama




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Cobre Panama
                                             Q1                                                                       Q2                              Q3                 Q4                                                                                           Q1                                   Q2                              Q3                 Q4
                                     4,000                                                                                                                                                                                       4,000
                                                                               1,710                                                  3,420                5,130                    6,850                                                                                                         1,710                    3,420                5,130                    6,850
                                                                                                                     Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)                                                                                                                                                   Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)

Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                                                                                                                   Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

                                                                                                On a total capex basis and under our base case US$5.5 bn capex assumption, the Cobre Panama project appears marginal with a
                                                                                                required copper price of US$6,783/t, slightly higher than our long-term forecast, and a 14% IRR. However, the project is well
                                                                                                positioned relative to other longer-dated projects we analyze here, and on a sunk cost basis, its economics improve further, with an
                                                                                                IRR of 16.3% and required copper price of US$6,168/t. Cobre Panama’s economics would be further strengthened if management
                                                                                                delivers a sizable capex cut following completion of the detailed engineering review. We use a US$1 bn capex reduction assumption,
                                                                                                or 18% lower than our base case, to illustrate this in the following exhibits.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    27
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                GS Copper 60



Project capex remains under upward pressure, but peak in sight
                                                              Capital requirements for new mining projects in the copper space are under continued upward pressure, driving up capital intensity
                                                              and incentive pricing; this is mainly due to: (1) the ongoing decline in copper ore grades, requiring much larger mining and milling
                                                              capacities; and (2) the growing proportion of projects located in developing economies and remote areas with little existing
                                                              infrastructure. We have modelled over 60 of the largest copper projects due onstream in the coming decade to determine the copper
                                                              price required to make these projects economically viable. In aggregate, at full capacity, the GS Copper 60 projects represent c.12
                                                              mtpa of copper production additions and a total of US$219 bn of associated capex. Exhibit 35 shows summary details of the GS
                                                              Copper 60 projects (see Appendix 3 for additional details and metrics on the individual GS Copper 60 projects).

                                                              In Exhibit 33, we show the aggregate cash flow profile if all modelled projects were to come online, indicating further considerable
                                                              upside to mining industry capex on copper projects. With more than half the modelled volume in the form of unapproved projects
                                                              and the current environment focusing on capex cuts and investor returns, we see little likelihood of this scenario going ahead and
                                                              instead see our risked analysis as a more realistic outcome at this stage. We illustrate the corresponding cash flow profile for the
                                                              risked projects in Exhibit 34, indicating that aggregate project capex will peak in 2013E, which is more consistent with our view on
                                                              capex for the broader mining industry.


Exhibit 33: Massive capex growth potential if all projects go ahead…                                                          Exhibit 34: … but likely to see capex peak in 2013E on a risked basis
GS Copper 60 aggregate cash flow generation to 2030E – Total                                                                  GS Copper 60 aggregate cash flow generation to 2030E – Risked

                              80,000                                                                                                                        25,000

                                                                                                                                                            20,000
                              60,000

                                                                                                                                                            15,000
                              40,000
Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                                              Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)
                                                                                                                                                            10,000

                              20,000
                                                                                                                                                             5,000


                                  -                                                                                                                             -

                                                                                                                                                            -5,000
                    -20,000
                                                                                                                                                  -10,000
                    -40,000
                                                                                                                                                  -15,000

                    -60,000                                                                                                                       -20,000
                                                      2014E


                                                              2016E


                                                                      2018E


                                                                              2020E


                                                                                      2022E


                                                                                              2024E


                                                                                                      2026E


                                                                                                              2028E


                                                                                                                      2030E
                                       2010


                                              2012




                                                                                                                                                                                    2014E


                                                                                                                                                                                            2016E


                                                                                                                                                                                                    2018E


                                                                                                                                                                                                            2020E


                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2022E


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2024E


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2026E


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2028E


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2030E
                                                                                                                                                                     2010


                                                                                                                                                                            2012




                                       Operating cash flow            Total annual capex              Net cash flow                                                  Operating cash flow            Total annual capex              Net cash flow

Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                                                     Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    28
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60


Exhibit 35: GS Copper 60 projects summary
                                                                                                                       Announced            GS         Unit capex  Unit capex  NPV @ 11%   NPV @ 11%                                         Cu price                                 Total cash  Total cash 
                                                                                          Project      Board  Start                                                                                         Payback               IRR                  Peak         Cu  LOM avg Cu                              EBITDA 
Project                    Owner 1                    Country          Status                                             Capex           Capex      (US$ / t)     (US$ / t)     (incl. sunk)    (2013+)                IRR                required @                                    cost        cost      
                                                                                           type       approved date                                                                                          (years)           (2013+)                    output          output                                margin
                                                                                                                        (US$ mn)        (US$ mn)           Cu       Cu equ.       (US$ mn)       (US$ mn)                                    15% IRR                                     ($/t)      (c/lb)
Agua Rica                  Glencore Xstrata            Argentina       Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2019      $2,120          $3,132 $20,881 /t $15,320 /t                $945           $945       4.81    16.8%    16.8% $6,082 /t          250 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,536 /t 160 c/lb        52%
Aktogay                    Kazakhmys                   Kazakhstan      Construction      Greenfield     No     2015      $2,000          $2,100 $23,333 /t $22,054 /t               ‐$371           ‐$50      12.09     8.8%    10.6% $8,258 /t          135 ktpa         90 ktpa      $4,366 /t 198 c/lb        36%
Andina Phase 2             Codelco                     Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2021      $6,800          $8,800 $25,656 /t $23,674 /t               ‐$207          ‐$207       9.27    10.6%    10.6% $8,270 /t          343 ktpa        343 ktpa      $3,813 /t 173 c/lb        47%
Antapaccay                 Glencore Xstrata            Peru            Producing         Brownfield     Yes    2012      $1,470          $1,500 $10,490 /t $9,700 /t                $1,102         $2,561      5.65    17.9%       ‐‐       $6,095 /t    160 ktpa        143 ktpa      $4,020 /t 182 c/lb        43%
Antucoya                   Antofagasta                 Chile           Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $1,900          $2,000 $25,000 /t $25,000 /t               ‐$687          ‐$182      12.95     6.0%     9.2%       $9,375 /t     80 ktpa         80 ktpa      $4,592 /t 208 c/lb        35%
Aynak                      China Metallurgical Group CoAfghanistan     Permitting        Greenfield     Yes    2017      $4,400          $5,616 $17,549 /t $17,549 /t              ‐$1,274        ‐$1,161      9.56     6.0%     6.3%       $8,506 /t    320 ktpa        320 ktpa      $4,197 /t 190 c/lb        38%
Bozshakol                  Kazakhmys                   Kazakhstan      Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $1,900          $2,000 $26,667 /t $20,725 /t                $210          $1,122      7.53    12.1%    22.7% $7,499 /t          130 ktpa         75 ktpa      $3,675 /t 167 c/lb        46%
Buenavista SX/EW III       Southern Copper             Mexico          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014        $444            $500         $4,167 /t $4,167 /t         $1,424         $1,650      3.67    38.5%   104.9% $5,129 /t          120 ktpa        120 ktpa      $4,410 /t 200 c/lb        34%
Buenavista DC              Southern Copper             Mexico          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2015      $1,383          $1,681         $8,848 /t $8,469 /t         $1,640         $2,058      5.65    19.7%    27.1% $5,767 /t          190 ktpa        190 ktpa      $4,129 /t 187 c/lb        41%
Canariaco                  Candente Copper Corp        Peru            Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $1,437          $1,926 $15,163 /t $14,161 /t                $277           $277       7.74    13.1%    13.1% $6,990 /t          127 ktpa        127 ktpa      $4,091 /t 186 c/lb        42%
Caserones                  JX Nippon Metals & Mining Chile             Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $3,000          $3,308 $27,563 /t $25,167 /t               ‐$341          $2,046      8.35     9.6%    41.3% $8,032 /t          180 ktpa        120 ktpa      $3,834 /t 174 c/lb        44%
Cerro Casale               Barrick Gold                Chile           Permitting        Greenfield     No     2018      $6,000          $7,000 $63,636 /t $30,911 /t               ‐$461          ‐$461       8.92     9.8%     9.8% $10,941 /t 110 ktpa                110 ktpa       $73 /t      3 c/lb       70%
Cerro Verde                Freeport                    Peru            Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2016      $4,400          $5,000 $18,382 /t $16,958 /t               $1,252         $1,838      7.73    13.7%    15.7% $6,965 /t          272 ktpa        272 ktpa      $3,771 /t 171 c/lb        50%
Chuquicamata U/G           Codelco                     Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2018      $4,156          $5,569 $15,217 /t $15,217 /t               $1,958         $1,958      7.06    15.3%    15.3% $6,447 /t          366 ktpa        366 ktpa      $3,847 /t 174 c/lb        40%
Cobre Panama               First Quantum               Panama          Feasibility       Greenfield     Yes    2017      $4,751          $5,500 $20,677 /t $18,730 /t               $1,631         $2,236      6.72    14.3%    16.3% $6,783 /t          298 ktpa        266 ktpa      $3,394 /t 154 c/lb        55%
Collahuasi GL4             Glencore Xstrata            Chile           Pre‐feasibility   Brownfield     No     2017      $4,000          $5,105 $14,797 /t $14,797 /t                $133           $133       9.77    11.3%    11.3% $7,497 /t          345 ktpa        345 ktpa      $4,306 /t 195 c/lb        36%
Constancia                 Hudbay Minerals             Peru            Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $1,546          $1,704 $20,053 /t $17,092 /t                 $38           $803       6.51    11.5%    25.0% $7,485 /t          118 ktpa         85 ktpa      $3,701 /t 168 c/lb        49%
Cuajone                    Southern Copper             Peru            Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2018        $500            $670        $13,401 /t $12,815 /t         $139           $139       7.33    14.3%    14.3% $6,675 /t           50 ktpa         50 ktpa      $4,265 /t 193 c/lb        39%
DeGrussa                   Sandfire Resources          Australia       Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2012        $400            $400         $5,195 /t $4,840 /t          $465           $776       2.30    36.5%       ‐‐       $5,017 /t     77 ktpa         77 ktpa      $3,778 /t 171 c/lb        49%
El Moro                    GoldCorp                    Chile           Permitting        Greenfield     Yes    2017      $3,900          $4,515 $34,729 /t $25,508 /t               ‐$363          ‐$137       7.66     9.4%    10.4% $8,794 /t          160 ktpa        130 ktpa      $2,348 /t 106 c/lb        62%
El Pachon                  Glencore Xstrata            Argentina       Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $4,100          $4,984 $17,798 /t $17,798 /t                $655           $655       7.44    13.0%    13.0% $7,029 /t          400 ktpa        280 ktpa      $4,067 /t 184 c/lb        43%
Encuentro Oxides           Antofagasta                 Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016        $600            $695        $13,892 /t $13,892 /t        ‐$101          ‐$101       7.15     5.8%     5.8%       $7,777 /t     50 ktpa         50 ktpa      $4,247 /t 193 c/lb        41%
Encuentro Sulphides        Antofagasta                 Chile           Pre‐feasibility   Brownfield     No     2021      $3,500          $4,500 $30,000 /t $23,724 /t                 $73            $73       9.27    11.3%    11.3% $7,959 /t          150 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,500 /t 159 c/lb        47%
Escondida OGP1             BHP                         Chile           Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2015      $3,800          $4,399 $17,596 /t $17,596 /t                $623          $1,702      9.07    12.5%    16.5% $7,343 /t          250 ktpa        250 ktpa      $4,060 /t 184 c/lb        46%
Esperanza Sur              Antofagasta                 Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2017      $3,500          $4,000 $28,571 /t $22,665 /t                 $32            $32       9.74    11.1%    11.1% $8,258 /t          140 ktpa        140 ktpa      $3,398 /t 154 c/lb        47%
Frieda River               Glencore Xstrata            PNG             Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2018      $5,600          $6,900 $36,316 /t $29,290 /t              ‐$1,104        ‐$1,104      9.97     7.8%     7.8%       $9,365 /t    262 ktpa        190 ktpa      $3,485 /t 158 c/lb        49%
Galeno                     China Minmetals             Peru            Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $3,900          $4,740 $23,702 /t $19,736 /t               ‐$375          ‐$375       8.36     9.4%     9.4%       $8,277 /t    200 ktpa        200 ktpa      $3,533 /t 160 c/lb        52%
Grasberg DMLZ              Freeport                    Indonesia       Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2015      $2,300          $2,750 $11,702 /t $9,752 /t                $1,482         $2,165      6.87    18.0%    28.9% $5,945 /t          235 ktpa        235 ktpa      $3,743 /t 170 c/lb        44%
Grasberg BC                Freeport                    Indonesia       Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2017      $4,400          $5,348         $9,466 /t $8,020 /t         $3,427         $4,519      5.85    18.2%    25.9% $5,818 /t          565 ktpa        565 ktpa      $3,724 /t 169 c/lb        45%
Haquira                    First Quantum               Peru            Scoping           Greenfield     No     2018      $2,058          $3,041 $15,754 /t $14,237 /t                $436           $436       6.60    13.8%    13.8% $6,785 /t          230 ktpa        193 ktpa      $4,025 /t 183 c/lb        43%
Inca de Oro                Panaust                     Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016        $742            $902        $18,038 /t $16,029 /t         $113           $113       7.55    13.0%    13.0% $6,997 /t           60 ktpa         50 ktpa      $3,855 /t 175 c/lb        39%
Kamoa                      Ivanplats                   DRC             Pre‐feasibility   Greenfield     No     2018      $2,500          $3,191 $16,196 /t $16,196 /t               $1,334         $1,334      6.79    16.5%    16.5% $6,112 /t          197 ktpa        197 ktpa      $3,887 /t 176 c/lb        54%
Kansanshi Sulphide         First Quantum               Zambia          Permitting        Brownfield     No     2015        $400            $463         $7,124 /t $7,124 /t          $475           $520       3.83    27.7%    32.0% $5,259 /t           65 ktpa         65 ktpa      $3,990 /t 181 c/lb        45%
Konkola Deep               Vedanta                     Zambia          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2013        $973          $1,050         $6,000 /t $6,000 /t          $966          $1,982      6.25    15.6%   313.0% $6,453 /t          175 ktpa        175 ktpa      $4,685 /t 212 c/lb        28%
Las Bambas                 Glencore Xstrata            Peru            Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $5,200          $5,733 $18,494 /t $16,358 /t                $134          $2,970      7.00    11.3%    25.6% $7,575 /t          400 ktpa        310 ktpa      $3,824 /t 173 c/lb        47%
Los Bronces                Anglo American              Chile           Producing         Brownfield     Yes    2011      $2,800          $2,900 $15,263 /t $15,263 /t               $2,517         $4,570      5.69    18.7%       ‐‐       $5,983 /t    278 ktpa        190 ktpa      $3,925 /t 178 c/lb        44%
Lubambe                    African Rainbow Minerals    Zambia          Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2012        $454            $454        $10,089 /t $10,089 /t         $154           $533       7.57    14.3%   104.6% $6,706 /t          45 ktpa          45 ktpa      $4,553 /t 206 c/lb        32%
Michiquillay               Anglo American              Peru            Scoping           Greenfield     No     2019      $3,000          $4,432 $19,966 /t $17,740 /t               ‐$143          ‐$143       8.66    10.4%    10.4% $7,882 /t          222 ktpa        222 ktpa      $4,014 /t 182 c/lb        43%
Ministro Mina Hales        Codelco                     Chile           Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2013      $3,100          $3,255 $17,787 /t $16,728 /t               ‐$436          $1,724      9.33     8.8%    37.5% $7,859 /t          183 ktpa        183 ktpa      $3,937 /t 179 c/lb        42%
Morenci                    Freeport                    USA             Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014      $1,400          $1,544 $15,435 /t $13,270 /t                $662          $1,190      7.81    15.2%    23.2% $6,514 /t          100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,934 /t 178 c/lb        40%
Olympic Dam Phase 1        BHP                         Australia       Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2018      $3,000          $4,020 $26,802 /t $23,756 /t                ‐$75           ‐$75      10.06    10.7%    10.7% $8,243 /t          150 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,822 /t 173 c/lb        33%
Oyu Tolgoi open pit only   Rio Tinto                   Mongolia        Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2013      $6,188          $6,188 $41,253 /t $30,925 /t               ‐$169          $6,098      9.21    10.3%       ‐‐       $9,036 /t    200 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,264 /t 148 c/lb        54%
Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave      Rio Tinto                   Mongolia        Feasibility       Brownfield     Yes    2016      $5,101          $5,905 $12,051 /t $10,516 /t               $3,348         $3,461      6.00    18.8%    19.3% $5,780 /t          490 ktpa        490 ktpa      $3,574 /t 162 c/lb        52%
Pebble                     Anglo American              USA (Alaska)    Pre‐feasibility   Greenfield     No     2019      $4,690          $6,929 $23,098 /t $16,423 /t               $2,018         $2,018      6.57    15.0%    15.0% $6,534 /t          350 ktpa        300 ktpa      $3,080 /t 140 c/lb        54%
Quebrada Blanca            Teck                        Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2016      $5,600          $6,500 $32,500 /t $29,958 /t              ‐$1,385         ‐$909      11.17     8.1%     8.9%       $9,291 /t    250 ktpa        200 ktpa      $4,135 /t 188 c/lb        43%
Quellaveco                 Anglo American              Peru            Permitting        Greenfield     No     2017      $3,000          $4,221 $18,761 /t $16,912 /t                ‐$40           ‐$40       9.28    10.9%    10.9% $7,756 /t          225 ktpa        225 ktpa      $4,106 /t 186 c/lb        41%
Radomiro Tomic             Codelco                     Chile           Pre‐feasibility   Brownfield     No     2017      $5,400          $6,564 $19,136 /t $19,136 /t                $518           $518       9.24    12.0%    12.0% $7,357 /t          343 ktpa        343 ktpa      $4,094 /t 186 c/lb        40%
Relincho                   Teck                        Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2018      $3,900          $4,740 $26,336 /t $23,752 /t               ‐$763          ‐$731      10.04     8.2%     8.3%       $8,769 /t    220 ktpa        180 ktpa      $3,873 /t 176 c/lb        43%
Resolution                 Rio Tinto                   USA (Arizona)   Scoping           Greenfield     No     2021      $3,152          $5,391 $10,782 /t $10,060 /t               $2,508         $2,508      5.54    19.0%    19.0% $5,810 /t          500 ktpa        500 ktpa      $4,156 /t 188 c/lb        41%
Salobo 1                   Vale                        Brazil          Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2012      $2,337          $2,337 $23,370 /t $18,923 /t                $486          $2,878      9.41    11.8%       ‐‐       $7,939 /t    100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,438 /t 156 c/lb        46%
Salobo 2                   Vale                        Brazil          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014      $1,707          $1,792 $17,924 /t $14,513 /t               $1,001         $2,035      6.79    15.9%    38.8% $6,277 /t          100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,411 /t 155 c/lb        46%
Santo Domingo              Capstone Mining             Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $1,800          $2,084 $32,057 /t $18,245 /t                $352           $352       7.19    13.8%    13.8% $6,922 /t          115 ktpa         65 ktpa      $2,028 /t 92 c/lb         54%
Schaft Creek               Copper Fox Metals           Canada          Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016      $3,256          $3,769 $31,943 /t $22,413 /t                $106           $218       8.66    11.4%    11.9% $8,065 /t          124 ktpa        118 ktpa      $2,769 /t 126 c/lb        56%
Sentinel                   First Quantum               Zambia          Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $2,000          $2,205         $7,603 /t $7,603 /t         $2,453         $3,115      4.91    24.6%    39.1% $5,366 /t          290 ktpa        290 ktpa      $4,056 /t 184 c/lb        46%
Sierra Gorda               KGHM                        Chile           Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $5,000          $5,250 $21,875 /t $18,144 /t                $193          $2,468      9.41    11.5%    23.9% $7,688 /t          240 ktpa        240 ktpa      $3,298 /t 150 c/lb        49%
Tampakan                   Glencore Xstrata            Philippines     Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2019      $5,900          $7,250 $19,333 /t $16,312 /t                $451           $451       6.59    12.3%    12.3% $7,248 /t          450 ktpa        375 ktpa      $3,686 /t 167 c/lb        46%
Tenke Fungurume            Freeport                    DRC             Producing         Brownfield     Yes    2012        $850            $900        $13,235 /t $10,071 /t        $1,618         $1,986      4.49    32.7%       ‐‐       $4,218 /t     68 ktpa         68 ktpa      $3,431 /t 156 c/lb        54%
Tia Maria                  Southern Copper             Peru            Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016      $1,200          $1,532 $12,763 /t $12,763 /t                 $70            $70       8.24    11.8%    11.8% $7,166 /t          120 ktpa        120 ktpa      $4,353 /t 197 c/lb        38%
Toquepala                  Southern Copper             Peru            Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014        $850            $937         $9,371 /t $8,536 /t         $1,158         $1,560      5.14    21.6%    39.5% $5,421 /t          100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,930 /t 178 c/lb        44%
Toromocho                  Chinalco                    Peru            Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $3,500          $3,859 $18,375 /t $15,696 /t                $176          $3,123      9.09    11.2%    43.2% $7,881 /t          210 ktpa        210 ktpa      $4,076 /t 185 c/lb        44%
Udokan                     Metalloinvest               Russia          Feasibility       Greenfield     Yes    2016      $3,000          $3,647 $24,310 /t $24,310 /t                ‐$86           ‐$86      10.90    10.7%    10.7% $8,010 /t          150 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,923 /t 178 c/lb        44%
Wafi Golpu                 Harmony Gold                PNG             Pre‐feasibility   Greenfield     No     2019      $4,800          $6,432 $18,378 /t $14,748 /t               $1,084         $1,084      7.53    13.5%    13.5% $7,034 /t          350 ktpa        350 ktpa      $3,650 /t 166 c/lb        46%
Total                      ‐                           ‐               ‐                     ‐           ‐       ‐      $180,117        $218,811 $18,184 /t $15,933 /t             $28,390        $66,154      8.41    12.7%    16.6% $7,231 /t 13,183 ktpa 12,033 ktpa                $3,807 /t 173 c/lb        45%

Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         29
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                  GS Copper 60



Longer-term market fundamentals remain supportive of incentive price
                                 We forecast a transient copper market surplus through 2015E, with the market returning to balance in 2016E. This is a result of
                                 approved new production growth slowing with most approved projects approaching design capacity, as well as a continued decline
                                 in average mined copper grades at existing operations and mine depletions. Wood Mackenzie estimates that mine closures and
                                 attrition will remove c.2.6mtpa of copper production capacity from the system by the end of the decade. On attrition, companies
                                 need to expand mine and mill processing capacity if they are to offset the decline as this cannot be done through efficiency gains in
                                 most cases. We show the historical average mined copper grade and reserve copper grade in Exhibits 36 and 37.


Exhibit 36: Decline in average milled head grades expected to continue…                 Exhibit 37: … as higher grade deposits are mostly already mined and reserve
Milled global average copper head grade 1980-2025E                                      additions are from lower grade projects
                                                                                        Average global copper reserve grade 1980-2011


1.6                                                                                     1.2
      Grade (Cu%)                                                                             Grade (Cu%)

1.4
                                                     1990-2012 average treated copper   1.0
                                                     grade decline of 1.6%
1.2
                                                                                        0.8
1.0

0.8                                                                                     0.6

0.6
                                                                                        0.4
0.4
                                                                                        0.2
0.2

0.0                                                                                     0.0
   1980    1985   1990   1995   2000   2005   2010    2011   2012   2015E 2020E 2025E      1980        1985      1990    1995      2000      2005      2010         2011

Source: Wood Mackenzie                                                                  Source: Wood Mackenzie

                                 As a result of this declining grade profile and thus production profile at existing operations, we expect more copper projects to be
                                 required to fill the gap. We estimate aggregate copper production of 4.6mtpa from the risked projects within our analysis, which, at
                                 first glance, appears sufficient to meet the c.4-5mtpa of demand growth we forecast by the end of the decade. However, grade
                                 declines and mine closures add another 2.5-3mtpa of required new supply by 2020E, around half of our forecast potential new
                                 supply from unapproved projects. As such, we believe copper pricing may return to being supported by incentive prices as soon as
                                 the market acknowledges a return to tight market conditions and the need to incentivize new project approvals.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                               30
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60


                                    Many later-dated projects are still pending board approval and necessary permits. The latter have been a source of significant
                                    delays to several projects in the past and are likely to remain so. Indeed, given the increased number of projects being proposed in
                                    developing countries, we see growing challenges for companies seeking to obtain the necessary permits, with the process usually
                                    resulting in considerable delays to the timeline and ballooning capital cost estimates. A breakdown of the GS Copper 60
                                    unsanctioned projects by status is shown in Exhibit 38.


Exhibit 38: C.40% of 2017E production from projects pending approval                        Exhibit 39: Peru to contribute most of the potential growth to 2020E
GS Copper 60 projects volume delivery by status to 2020E                                    GS Copper 60 projects volume delivery by country to 2020E

 6,000                                                                                       6,000
          kt Cu                                                                                       kt Cu
                                                                                                                                                                   DRC
                                                                                                                                                                   Russia
 5,000                                                                                       5,000                                                                 Afghanistan
                                                                                                                                                                   Canada
                                                                                                                                                                   USA
 4,000                                                                                       4,000                                                                 Indonesia
                                                                        Pre-feasibility /
                                                                        Scoping                                                                                    PNG
                                                                                                                                                                   Philippines
 3,000                                                                  Feasibility          3,000                                                                 Argentina
                                                                                                                                                                   Panama
                                                                                                                                                                   Australia
                                                                        Permitting
 2,000                                                                                       2,000                                                                 Kazakhstan
                                                                                                                                                                   Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                   Mexico
 1,000                                                                                       1,000                                                                 Zambia
                                                                                                                                                                   Mongolia
                                                                                                                                                                   Peru
      0                                                                                           0                                                                Chile
               2016E        2017E           2018E   2019E      2020E                                      2016E         2017E           2018E   2019E   2020E

Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                   Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




                                    In addition, a large proportion of new forecast copper project developments are in developing economies; these involve more
                                    complex and challenging environments, and are generally subject to more limited infrastructure and greater political risk. The
                                    required IRR for these projects is likely upwards of our baseline assumption of 15%. Furthermore, we expect capital cost inflation to
                                    be considerably higher. Exhibit 39 gives a breakdown of project locations for unapproved new copper production through to 2020E.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                         31
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60



Rising capital intensity affecting project IRRs
                                    It would be incorrect to relate the size of a project to its expected returns, although this relationship may have held in the past, when
                                    capital intensity was less widely distributed and averaged c.US$5,000/t. Examples include Antofagasta’s Los Pelambres mine (1999
                                    start, US$5,528/t capital intensity) and BHP’s Spence operation (1999 start, US$4,950 /t capital intensity). However, we now see a far
                                    greater range of capital intensities for new projects, mainly reflecting their unique infrastructure requirements and difficulties, with
                                    an average capital intensity of c.US$16,000 /t of annual copper equivalent production. That being the case, and as shown in Exhibits
                                    40 and 41, we believe it is capital intensity (in addition to operating costs and by-products) that best determines a project’s potential
                                    returns, clearly favouring brownfield projects and countries with adequate existing infrastructure.


Exhibit 40: Project IRR not directly linked to size…                                       Exhibit 41: …but rather to capital intensity
IRR vs. LOM average volume                                                                 IRR vs. Unit copper equivalent capex


 600 ktpa                                                                                    $35,000 /t

                                                                                             $30,000 /t
 500 ktpa

                                                                                             $25,000 /t
 400 ktpa
                                                                                             $20,000 /t

 300 ktpa
                                                                                             $15,000 /t

 200 ktpa                                                                                    $10,000 /t
                                                    R² = 0.0011
                                                                                              $5,000 /t
 100 ktpa
                                                                                                                                               R² = 0.5271
                                                                                                   $0 /t
    0 ktpa                                                                                             0.0%           10.0%            20.0%        30.0%    40.0%     50.0%
          0.0%            10.0%             20.0%   30.0%         40.0%      50.0%           -$5,000 /t

Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                  Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.


                                    We show the average IRR by company for the GS Copper 60 in Exhibit 42. On our assumptions, the average aggregate IRR falls
                                    short of our 15% requirement at 12.7%, which is broadly in line with our previously published estimates of 12.4%-13.1%. We point
                                    out the strong 18.8% IRR estimate at Southern Copper and c.17% at Freeport and First Quantum.

                                    At Southern Copper, four of the five projects included in our estimates are brownfield expansions with low capital intensities, more
                                    than compensating for otherwise average cash costs.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                       32
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           GS Copper 60


                                 For First Quantum, we have modeled the company’s three greenfield projects, Sentinel, Cobre Panama and Haquira, along with the
                                 brownfield expansion of the Kansanshi sulphide circuit; the higher calculated IRR reflects the company’s track record of delivering
                                 growth at lower than industry-average capital intensities.

                                 On a risked basis, and excluding the Cobre Panama and Haquira projects, our average calculated IRR rises to a peer-leading 25%.
                                 We have not included First Quantum’s oxide circuit brownfield expansions at the Kansanshi operations, which would have further
                                 increased our IRR estimate.

                                 At Freeport, all five included projects are brownfield, including the already completed and low capital intensity Tenke Fungurume
                                 phase 2 project. We also highlight that the Grasberg DMLZ and BC underground projects are not purely growth projects as they will
                                 replace production from the mine’s existing open pit operation, which we expect to be depleted in late 2016 when the company
                                 transitions to the main underground deposit. Excluding the replacement volume, we expect the average project IRR of 17.1% to
                                 come off slightly.


                                 Exhibit 42: GS Copper 60 average IRR falls short of 15% assumed requirement
                                 GS Copper 60 IRR by company

                                   20%
                                   18%
                                   16%
                                   14%                                                                                                                                                                          12.7% avg. IRR
                                   12%
                                   10%
                                     8%
                                     6%
                                     4%
                                     2%
                                     0%


                                                                                                                                                                                                         KGHM
                                                              Freeport




                                                                                                                                                           Anglo American
                                                                                                                                                                            Codelco
                                                                                         Rio Tinto




                                                                                                                                 BHP Billiton
                                                                                                     Vedanta
                                                                                                               Capstone
                                                                                                                          Vale


                                                                                                                                                Candente




                                                                                                                                                                                      Glencore Xstrata


                                                                                                                                                                                                                Copper Fox


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Antofagasta
                                            Southern Copper




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Kazakhmys




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Others
                                                                         First Quantum




                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                                                                                                                                             Teck


                                 On the lower end of the chart above, we see highly capital-intensive and mostly greenfield projects within the company portfolios,
                                 some of which require significant infrastructure beyond the scope of the mining operations, including roads, pipelines, power
                                 stations and desalination plants. In such projects, we associate a higher risk of delays and capex overruns.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        33
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                              GS Copper 60



FQM produces most growth through strong pipeline of brownfield and greenfield projects
                                     Exhibits 43 and 44 show the risked copper production profiles (on an attributable basis) from the GS Copper 60 projects belonging
                                     to the European miners to 2020E in absolute terms and as a percentage of 2011 production.

                                     First Quantum’s copper growth profile is the most impressive relative to its existing scale, as we expect the company to more than
                                     double its total annual copper production to over 850kt by end-2016 (Exhibit 44 shows the additional potential copper production
                                     from the projects modeled in GS Copper 60 on a risked basis: Kansanshi Sulphide and Sentinel, but excludes the Kansanshi Oxide
                                     expansions and Cobre Panama), once its portfolio of upcoming approved brownfield and greenfield projects is ramped up; there is
                                     further upside to over 1mtpa from the recently acquired Cobre Panama project, which is currently undergoing a detailed
                                     engineering review and is not yet board approved. We also attribute lower risk to First Quantum’s near-term growth plans, reflecting
                                     the company’s solid track record of project delivery and execution.

                                     At Glencore Xstrata, the leading absolute growth in attributable copper production relates to the inclusion of the Las Bambas project,
                                     which we expect to be commissioned in 1H15 and ramp up to design capacity of 400ktpa by end 2016E. However, Glencore Xstrata
                                     has agreed to sell the Las Bambas project upon approval by the Chinese regulators for the merger; therefore, this growth might not
                                     remain within the company’s portfolio in a year’s time.


Exhibit 43: Strong absolute potential volume growth expected…                              Exhibit 44: … representing significant additions relative to current production
Attributable copper production from GS Copper 60 projects at European miners               Attributable copper production growth as % of 2012 production

   600                                                                                       120%
         kt Cu                                                                                      % of 2012 copper production
                                                                                                                                                                                FQM
                                                                                GLEN

   500                                                                                       100%




                                                                                             80%
   400
                                                                                                                                                                                KAZ


                                                                                 FQM                                                                                             VED
                                                                                             60%
   300


                                                                                             40%                                                                                GLEN

                                                                                 KAZ
   200

                                                                                             20%
                                                                                 BHP                                                                                             RIO
                                                                                 VED
                                                                                                                                                                                BHP
   100                                                                           AAL                                                                                            ANTO
                                                                                 RIO                                                                                            AAL
                                                                                              0%
                                                                                 ANTO                 2013E          2014E        2015E   2016E   2017E   2018E   2019E      2020E

    0
           2013E     2014E       2015E      2016E   2017E   2018E    2019E    2020E          -20%


Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                  Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                               34
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60



Attractive portfolios at smaller players, but funding to be biggest challenge
                                                                          Exhibits 45 and 46 show the ratio of our calculated aggregate project NPV and estimated capex requirement to the market
                                                                          capitalization of the associated companies. We believe this gives a better view of the relative attractiveness of a company’s copper
                                                                          growth portfolio.


Exhibit 45: Attractive relative portfolio at smaller growth companies                                                                                                                                              Exhibit 46: Funding is key given large relative capex requirement
Aggregate GS Copper 60 NPV to market cap (attributable)                                                                                                                                                            Aggregate GS Copper 60 capex to market cap (attributable)


        1,100% 95%                                                                                                                                                                                                       7,700% 1,640% 225%
 80%                                                                                                                                                                                                                200%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    180%
 70%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    160%
 60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    140%
 50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    120%
 40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                100%
 30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  80%
 20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      40%
 10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20%
   0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0%
                      Copper Fox




                                                                                                                                                                                              Antofagasta
                                                                                    Freeport

                                                                                               Southern Copper

                                                                                                                 KGHM

                                                                                                                        Anglo American
           Candente




                                                               Capstone

                                                                          Vedanta




                                                                                                                                         Glencore Xstrata

                                                                                                                                                            Vale

                                                                                                                                                                   Rio Tinto

                                                                                                                                                                               BHP Billiton
                                                   Kazakhmys




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Teck
                                   First Quantum




-10%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Copper Fox



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Kazakhmys




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Antofagasta




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Rio Tinto
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Freeport



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  KGHM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Southern Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Anglo American
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Candente



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capstone




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Teck




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Vedanta



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Vale

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         BHP Billiton
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Glencore Xstrata
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              First Quantum
-20%




Source: Reuters, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Reuters, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



                                                                          We highlight Candente Copper Corp., Copper Fox, First Quantum, Kazakhmys and Capstone as having attractive relative portfolios,
                                                                          according to our GS Copper 60 analysis. First Quantum’s growth profile is the most attractive in our view, and we believe its near-
                                                                          term growth is fully funded. At Kazakhmys, we do not view Aktogay and Bozshakol as strongly positioned projects given that they
                                                                          are third and fourth quartile on our incentive price curve. However, the scale of growth and potential improvement to the company’s
                                                                          existing operating base is substantial. Funding requirements may be an issue for Candente and Copper Fox, and to a lesser extent
                                                                          Capstone (which recently acquired the Pinto Valley copper asset from BHP Billiton). Candente’s market capitalization has fallen to
                                                                          c.US$25 mn, resulting in the company screening off the charts in the exhibits above. However, given our c.US$2 bn capex estimate
                                                                          for the company’s Canariaco project, funding will likely be the biggest challenge and a make-or-break for the project’s
                                                                          implementation. The same can be said about Copper Fox’s Schaft Creek project.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                35
July 9, 2013                                                                    GS Copper 60




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Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                 36
July 9, 2013                                                                              GS Copper 60




                                 Appendix 1: Company profiles and summary financials




                                            Appendix 1: Company profiles and summary financials




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                           37
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                             GS Copper 60



Antofagasta (ANTO.L): Looks fairly valued; remain Neutral, 12m PT down to 810p
  Investment Profile
  Low                                                                            High
                                                                                                  What’s changed
  Growth                                                                         Growth

  Returns *                                                                      Returns *
                                                                                                  We maintain our Neutral rating on Antofagasta and lower our 12-month price target to 810p (from 935p) as we
  Multiple                                                                       Multiple         factor in lower copper and gold price forecasts and roll forward our valuation period to 50/50 2014-15E from
  Volatility                                                                     Volatility       50/50 2013-14E previously; this implies 3% potential upside. We believe the stock is currently fairly valued,
        Percentile           20th      40th        60th        80th       100th                   trading at a 12-month-forward P/E of c.11-12x and EV/EBITDA of 4x on Bloomberg consensus estimates. This
        Antofagasta plc (ANTO.L)
                                                                                                  compares with historical average multiples of c.11-12x and 4.5-5x respectively. We estimate that the stock is
        Europe Mining Peer Group Average
* Returns = Return on Capital           For a complete description of the investment
                                                                                                  factoring in an average copper price of c.US$6,900/t on a one-year-forward basis, slightly above spot levels and
                                        profile measures please refer to the                      our near-term forecast. We revise our 2013-15E EPS to US$0.87, US$0.80 and US$0.93 from US$1.09, US$0.92
                                        disclosure section of this document.
                                                                                                  and US$0.94.
 Key data                                                                            Current
 Price (p)                                                                             784.5
 12 month price target (p)                                                               810      Implications
 Upside/(downside) (%)                                                                      3
 Market cap (£ mn)                                                                   7,734.0      Our view on Antofagasta is unchanged. The company’s Los Pelambres asset is world class, being a top-10
 Enterprise value ($ mn)                                                            11,623.4
                                       12/12           12/13E         12/14E         12/15E
                                                                                                  operation by size and occupying a favourable position on the cost curve. However, we believe input cost
 Revenue ($ mn) New                   6,740.1          5,694.8        5,460.0        5,690.2      pressure and a declining grade profile will affect the asset’s cost position. We expect the Esperanza operation to
 Revenue revision (%)                     0.0             (8.4)          (5.3)          (0.1)
 EBIT ($ mn) New                      3,335.1          2,082.2        1,851.2        2,101.1      continue to under-deliver, compared with design capacity, in the near term, with gross costs remaining high.
 EBIT revision (%)                        0.0            (18.6)         (11.4)          (0.6)
 EPS ($) New                             1.40              0.87           0.80          0.93      The weaker gold and silver price environment will affect Esperanza more than other ANTO operations, reflecting
 EPS ($) Old                             1.40              1.09           0.92          0.94
 EV/EBITDA (X)                            4.5               4.6            5.1            4.5
                                                                                                  the significant precious metals by-products. In addition, we have little visibility on organic growth. Growth
 P/E (X)                                 12.9              13.4           14.5          12.5      options this decade include Antucoya, Esperanza Sur and Encuentro Oxides. The Antucoya project is
 Dividend yield (%)                       5.4               2.6            2.4            2.8
 FCF yield (%)                            9.9               5.7            5.0            7.3     progressing after being recommitted to by management in March 2013, with first production slated for 2015.
 CROCI (%)                               32.4              14.4           15.5          14.5
                                                                                                  We expect an update on the large-scale Esperanza Sur project in early 2014 upon completion of the feasibility
                                                                                                  study; however, given our estimate of the project’s economics, we believe a decision to proceed may not be
 Price performance chart
1,400                                                                                       440   taken favourably by the market. From our GS Copper 60 analysis, we conclude that Antofagasta’s growth
1,300                                                                                       420   projects have unfavourable economics, mainly reflecting the elevated associated capital intensity.
1,200                                                                                       400

1,100                                                                                       380

1,000                                                                                       360   Valuation
 900                                                                                        340
                                                                                                  We value Antofagasta using a 5x target EV/EBITDA multiple derived from our GS SUSTAIN framework and
 800                                                                                        320
                                                                                                  applied to our 2014-15 EBITDA estimates. Our new 12-month price target of 810p implies 3% potential upside.
 700                                                                                        300
   Jul-12                Oct-12               Jan-13                Apr-13

                     Antofagasta plc (L)          FTSE World Europe (GBP) (R)
                                                                                                  Key risks
                                                                                                  A higher/lower-than-forecast copper price represents the biggest generic risk to our view on the stock, along
 Share price performance (%)                        3 month         6 month       12 month        with stronger/weaker operational and cost performance.
 Absolute                                              (14.0)          (38.5)         (27.2)
 Rel. to FTSE World Europe (GBP)                       (15.4)          (41.7)         (39.6)
 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/05/2013 close.




Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                          38
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60



Exhibit 47: Antofagasta plc summary financials and operating statistics 2010-16E
                                      2010       2011       2012     2013E       2014E     2015E       2016E                                                          2010        2011          2012       2013E        2014E         2015E        2016E
Profit model ($ mn)                                                                                                Divisional EBITDA ($ mn)
Total revenue                         4,577      6,076      6,740      5,695      5,460      5,690      6,344      Los Pelambres                                     2,375        2,642      2,457         1,615        1,420          1,503        1,747
Operating costs                     (1,805)    (2,415)    (2,911)    (3,161)    (3,149)    (3,119)    (3,104)      Esperanza                                              0         519      1,074           715          667            806          923
EBITDA                                2,772      3,661      3,829      2,534      2,311      2,572      3,241      El Tesoro                                           355          464        493           376          270            245          326
Depreciation & amortisation           (277)      (432)      (494)      (452)      (460)      (471)      (527)      Michilla                                              61         157          48            18         (25)           (11)            0
EBIT                                  2,495      3,229      3,335      2,082      1,851      2,101      2,714      Antucoya                                               0            0          0             0            0             25         235
Net interest income / (expense)          (2)       (70)       (61)       (64)       (69)       (70)       (67)     Transport                                             60           76         74            81           84             87           89
Associates                               (3)         24          7          5          5          5          5     Water                                                 67           74         81            92           95             98         101
Others (recurring)                      (27)         34       (26)          0          0          0          0     Corporate & Other                                   (46)         (55)       (97)          (77)         (80)           (80)         (80)
Exceptional items                       109      (141)      (500)           0          0          0          0     Exploration                                         (99)       (215)      (301)         (287)        (120)          (100)        (100)
Pretax profits                        2,573      3,076      2,754      2,023      1,788      2,036      2,652      Underlying EBITDA                                 2,772        3,661      3,829         2,534        2,311          2,572        3,241
Income tax                            (753)      (946)    (1,021)      (531)      (471)      (536)      (693)            Los Pelambres            Esperanza           El Tesoro            Michilla             Antucoya               EBITDA margin
Tax rate (%)                         29.2%      30.8%      37.1%      26.3%      26.3%      26.4%      26.1%     4,500                                                                                                                             70%
Minorities                            (769)      (893)      (702)      (631)      (525)      (582)      (741)             EBITDA ($ mn)
Net income                            1,052      1,237      1,032        861        792        917      1,217    4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       60%
Non‐recurring items post tax            (60)       140        350           0          0          0          0   3,500
Net Income (pre‐exceptionals)           991      1,377      1,382        861        792        917      1,217
                                                                                                                 3,000                                                                                                                                 50%
EPS (underlying) ($)                   1.01       1.40       1.40       0.87       0.80       0.93       1.23
EPS (basic, reported) ($)              1.07       1.25       1.05       0.87       0.80       0.93       1.23    2,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40%
Weighted shares outstanding (mn)      985.9      985.9      985.9      985.9      985.9      985.9      985.9
                                                                                                                 2,000
DPS ($)                                1.16       0.44       0.99       0.31       0.28       0.33       0.43
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       30%
Dividend payout ratio (%)           108.7%      35.1%      94.1%      35.0%      35.0%      35.0%      35.0%     1,500
Growth & margins (%)
                                                                                                                 1,000                                                                                                                                 20%
Revenue growth                       54.5%      32.7%      10.9%     ‐15.5%      ‐4.1%       4.2%      11.5%
EBITDA growth                        64.9%      32.1%       4.6%     ‐33.8%      ‐8.8%      11.3%      26.0%      500
EBIT growth                          70.5%      29.4%       3.3%     ‐37.6%     ‐11.1%      13.5%      29.1%                                                                                                                                           10%
                                                                                                                    0
EPS growth                           48.5%      38.9%       0.4%     ‐37.7%      ‐8.0%      15.8%      32.7%
DPS growth                          395.7%     ‐62.1%     123.9%     ‐69.0%      ‐8.0%      15.8%      32.7%     (500)                                                                                                                                 0%
EBITDA margin                        60.6%      60.2%      56.8%      44.5%      42.3%      45.2%      51.1%                 2010               2011          2012              2013E            2014E                2015E             2016E
EBIT margin                          54.5%      53.1%      49.5%      36.6%      33.9%      36.9%      42.8%       Assumptions
Cash flow statement ($ mn)                                                                                         Copper ($/t)                                   7,532          8,823       7,950         7,216        6,600          6,875       7,500
Net income                            1,052      1,237      1,032        861        792       917       1,217      Copper (¢/lb)                                    342            400         361           327          299            312         340
D&A add‐back                            277        432        494        452        460       471         527      Molybdenum ($/t)                              36,168         33,782      27,992        24,817       25,000         25,000      25,000
Minority interest add‐back              769        893        702        631        525       582         741      Gold ($/oz)                                    1,225          1,570       1,668         1,413        1,144          1,200       1,200
Other operating cash flow             (133)        (95)       590      (236)         (7)      (84)        (74)     CLP/$                                            510            483         487           478          479            482         490
Cash flow from operations             1,964      2,466      2,818      1,708      1,769     1,886       2,412      $/£                                             1.55           1.60        1.50          1.54         1.53           1.53        1.52
Capital expenditures                (1,302)      (667)      (874)      (944)    (1,100)     (925)       (437)      Consolidated production summary (kt)
Net (acquisitions) / divestitures         4        (32)       (16)         0           0         0           0     Copper                                            521.0       640.5       709.6         714.3        710.6          702.3        730.2
Other                                 (162)    (1,116)      (510)         17         12         11          14     Los Pelambres                                     384.5       411.7       403.7         398.0        389.3          389.3        390.4
Cash flow from investing            (1,460)    (1,815)    (1,315)      (927)    (1,088)     (914)       (424)      Esperanza                                            0.0       90.1       163.2         180.3        183.7          188.6        189.1
Dividends paid                        (237)    (1,183)      (439)      (975)      (306)     (282)       (326)      El Tesoro                                           95.3       97.1       105.1           98.1         99.6           91.5        85.8
Inc / (dec) in debt                     575      (104)      (260)          0           0         0           0     Michilla                                            41.2       41.6        37.6           37.9         38.0           24.3          0.0
Other financing cash flows            (716)      (751)      (337)      (514)      (558)     (620)       (767)      Antucoya                                             0.0         0.0        0.0            0.0          0.0            8.5        64.9
Cash flow from financing              (377)    (2,039)    (1,036)    (1,490)      (864)     (902)     (1,093)      Molybdenum                                           8.8        9.9        12.2            8.7          8.0            9.9        10.0
Total cash flow                         127    (1,387)        467      (709)      (182)         70        895      Los Pelambres                                        8.8         9.9       12.2            8.7          8.0            8.0          8.0
Free cash flow                          666      1,768      1,929        764        670       961       1,974      Esperanza                                            0.0         0.0        0.0            0.0          0.0            1.9          1.9
Balance sheet ($ mn)                                                                                               Gold                                                  35        197         300           276          311            318          319
Cash & equivalents                   3,542      3,280      4,297      3,587      3,406      3,476      4,371       Silver                                            1,437       2,633       3,141         2,499        2,543          2,581        2,588
Accounts receivable                    974        925        802        760        757        830        889       Transport                                          8106        8316        7680          7441         7500           7500         7500
                                                                                                                                  3
Inventory                               385        541        495        687        654        653        657      Water (000 m )                                    46302       48295      50793          51973        52000         52000        52000
Other current assets                     46         39         68         68         68         68         68
                                                                                                                             Los Pelambres               Esperanza                  El Tesoro                Michilla                 Antucoya
Total current assets                  4,947      4,784      5,661      5,102      4,884      5,027      5,984     800
Net PP&E                              6,093      6,443      6,513      7,006      7,646      8,100      8,011            Copper (kt)
Net intangibles                         312        155        158        158        158        158        158     700
Total investments                        84        124        156        156        156        156        156
Other long‐term assets                  153        199        383        383        383        383        383     600
Total assets                        11,588     11,705     12,870     12,804     13,226     13,823     14,691
Accounts payable                        505        504        710        642        611        610        613     500
Short‐term debt                         138        302        447        447        447        447        447
Other current liabilities               288        180        144        144        144        144        144     400
Total current liabilities               931        985      1,301      1,232      1,201      1,200      1,203
Long‐term debt                        2,059      1,838      1,442      1,442      1,442      1,442      1,442     300
Other long‐term liabilities           1,072      1,074      1,322      1,322      1,322      1,322      1,322
Total long‐term liabilities           3,131      2,913      2,764      2,764      2,764      2,764      2,764     200
Total liabilities                     4,062      3,898      4,065      3,997      3,965      3,965      3,968
Total common equity                   6,171      6,196      7,111      6,996      7,482      8,117      9,008     100
Minority interest                     1,355      1,611      1,694      1,811      1,779      1,741      1,715
                                                                                                                    0
Total liabilities & equity          11,588     11,705     12,870     12,804     13,226     13,823     14,691
                                                                                                                     2010                2011             2012                  2013E                  2014E                  2015E               2016E
Working capital                       4,016      3,799      4,360      3,870      3,683      3,826      4,781
Net debt / (cash)                   (1,345)    (1,140)    (2,407)    (1,698)    (1,516)    (1,586)    (2,481)      Production costs (USc/lb)
Capital employed                      9,722      9,948    10,694     10,696     11,150     11,747     12,612       Los Pelambres (pre by‐products)                 124.4         128.0       139.1         162.3        164.1          167.4        167.8
Ratios                                                                                                             Los Pelambres (post by‐products)                 79.3          78.3        85.7         128.0        134.0          136.9        137.3
CROCI                                23.1%      25.5%      32.4%      14.4%      15.5%      14.5%      17.7%       Esperanza (pre by‐products)                        0.0        235.0       194.2         215.3        220.5          220.4        220.8
CROCI / WACC (x)                        2.3        2.6        3.2        1.4        1.6        1.5        1.8      Esperanza (post by‐products)                       0.0         83.2        65.9         121.7        134.6          118.2        118.7
ROIC                                 16.6%      21.3%      18.5%      14.5%      12.8%      13.6%      16.2%       El Tesoro                                       169.7         171.8       148.6         145.7        176.4          190.7        167.8
ROIC / WACC (x)                         1.7        2.1        1.9        1.4        1.3        1.4        1.6      Michilla                                        183.5         213.1       318.4         300.8        329.4          332.5          0.0
ROA                                  10.0%      10.6%       8.4%       6.7%       6.1%       6.8%       8.5%       Antucoya                                           0.0           0.0        0.0           0.0          0.0          201.5        176.2
Net debt / equity                   ‐17.9%     ‐14.6%     ‐27.3%     ‐19.3%     ‐16.4%     ‐16.1%     ‐23.1%       Weighted avg cost (pre by‐products)             137.4        155.2        162.7         180.8        189.3          190.8        182.3
Gearing                             ‐21.8%     ‐17.1%     ‐37.6%     ‐23.9%     ‐19.6%     ‐19.2%     ‐30.1%       Weighted avg cost (post by‐products)            104.1        101.9        102.8         138.0        150.5          146.4        139.5
WACC                                 10.0%      10.0%      10.0%      10.0%      10.0%      10.0%      10.0%       NPV                                            US$m          UK£ps
EBITDA interest cover (x)           1539.9       52.4       62.5       39.8       33.6       36.6       48.4       Los Pelambres                                 13,198             8.7                  Transport                    Water
                                                                                                                                                                                              Antucoya      3%                         5%
Valuation (x)                                                                                                      Esperanza                                       3,812            2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                 1%
Share price (p)                      1079       1286        1202        785        785        785        785       El Tesoro                                       1,404            0.9    Michilla
EV (US$ mn)                         16,456     20,803     17,062     12,017     12,115     12,001     10,958       Michilla                                          (54)         (0.0)       0%
                                                                                                                                                                                           El Tesoro
EV/sales (x)                            3.6        3.4        2.5        2.1        2.2        2.1        1.7      Antucoya                                          250            0.2        7%
EV/EBITDA (x)                           5.9        5.7        4.5        4.7        5.2        4.7        3.4      Transport                                         606            0.4
EV/EBITDA (attributable) (x)            8.4        8.1        6.2        6.1        6.6        5.8        4.1      Water                                             925            0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Esperanza                      Los 
P/E (x)                               16.6       14.8       12.9       13.8       15.0       12.9         9.6      Total operations                              20,140           13.3                       23%                      Pelambres
Dividend yield                        7.0%       2.1%       5.5%       2.5%       2.3%       2.7%       3.6%       Corporate & exploration                       (1,517)          (1.0)                                                  65%
FCF yield                             4.1%       8.7%      10.9%       6.4%       5.7%       8.1%      16.8%       Minorities                                    (5,789)          (3.8)
EV/GCI (x)                              1.6        1.9        1.4        0.9        0.8        0.8        1.0      Net cash / (debt) ‐ attributable                2,355            1.6
EV/capital employed (x)                 1.7        2.1        1.6        1.1        1.1        1.0        0.9      Antofagasta equity value                      15,191         10.06
Price/book (x)                          2.7        3.3        2.5        1.7        1.6        1.5        1.3
                                                                                                                   Fawzi Hanano                                               +44 20 7774 8377                                 fawzi.hanano@gs.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  08/07/2013



Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                39
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                               GS Copper 60



First Quantum Minerals (FQM.L): Industry leading growth and strong returns; up to Buy
  Investment Profile
  Low                                                                              High
                                                                                                    Source of opportunity
  Growth                                                                           Growth

  Returns *                                                                        Returns *
                                                                                                    We upgrade First Quantum to Buy from Neutral. In our view, First Quantum offers the strongest growth profile
  Multiple                                                                         Multiple         in our coverage group, with a pro-forma CAGR for copper-equivalent growth of 20.3% to 2015E and 12.6% to
  Volatility                                                                       Volatility       2020E. The acquisition of Inmet increases First Quantum’s global footprint through the addition of three existing
                             20th      40th         60th         80th       100th
        Percentile                                                                                  operations in Europe totalling c.110ktpa of copper production, with a further c.300ktpa growth from the Cobre
        First Quantum Minerals (FQM.L)
                                                                                                    Panama project, lifting the group’s potential output to nearly 1mtpa by 2017. We acknowledge that this
        Europe Mining Peer Group Average
* Returns = Return on Capital           For a complete description of the investment
                                                                                                    strengthened growth profile comes at a price, reflecting the acquisition cost of US$5.1 bn (50% debt/50%
                                        profile measures please refer to the
                                        disclosure section of this document.
                                                                                                    shares), as well as increased capital spending for the Cobre Panama project. However, we believe the company’s
                                                                                                    balance sheet will remain robust and forecast average gearing of c.18% in 2013-15. In addition, the integration of
 Key data                                                                                Current    Inmet’s existing European assets lowers First Quantum’s group cash costs by c.US10 c/lb, improving the
 Price (p)                                                                                 971.5
 12 month price target (p)                                                                 1,300
                                                                                                    company’s cost position.
 Upside/(downside) (%)                                                                         34
 Market cap (£ mn)                                                                       5,739.6    We raise our 12-month price target to 1,300p (from 1,225p) as we roll forward our valuation period to 50/50 2014-
 Enterprise value ($ mn)                                                                11,564.8
                                       12/12             12/13E         12/14E           12/15E     15E from 50/50 2013-14E previously, better capturing First Quantum’s growth and more than offsetting the
 Revenue ($ mn) New                   2,950.4            3,909.9        4,446.0          6,318.5
 Revenue revision (%)                      0.0              (5.5)          (7.3)            (3.0)
                                                                                                    impact from lower copper and gold price forecasts. We lower our 2013-15E EPS to US$1.15, US$1.19 and
 EBIT ($ mn) New                      1,101.0            1,351.8        1,624.0          2,556.2    US$1.98 from US$1.36, US$1.31 and US$2.01.
 EBIT revision (%)                         0.0             (13.4)          (8.5)            (1.9)
 EPS ($) New                             1.17                1.15          1.19              1.98
 EPS ($) Old                             1.17                1.36          1.31              2.01
 EV/EBITDA (X)                             8.1                6.8            6.2              4.5   Catalyst
 P/E (X)                                 17.5                12.6          12.1               7.3
 Dividend yield (%)                        0.9                1.2            1.2              2.1   Upcoming near-term catalysts include: (1) updates relating to progress at the Sentinel greenfield project and
 FCF yield (%)                           (9.5)              (6.5)          (5.0)           (12.1)
 CROCI (%)                               (8.0)               21.6          15.8              17.9   smelter project; and (2) completion of the detailed engineering review of the Cobre Panama project through
                                                                                                    which the company is seeking capex reductions.
 Price performance chart
1,600                                                                                        460

1,500                                                                                        440
                                                                                                    Valuation
1,400                                                                                        420    We value First Quantum using a 6.25x (6x) target EV/EBITDA multiple derived from our GS SUSTAIN framework
1,300                                                                                        400
                                                                                                    and applied to our 2014-15 EBITDA estimates. Our new 12-month price target of 1,300p implies 34% potential
1,200                                                                                        380

1,100                                                                                        360
                                                                                                    upside.
1,000                                                                                        340

 900                                                                                         320

 800                                                                                         300
                                                                                                    Key risks
   Jul-12               Oct-12                  Jan-13                Apr-13
                                                                                                    A lower-than-expected copper price, project delays, capex over-runs and country risk are key risks to our view
                   First Quantum Minerals (L)            FTSE World Europe (GBP) (R)
                                                                                                    and price target.

 Share price performance (%)                         3 month          6 month          12 month
 Absolute                                               (17.6)           (29.3)            (21.6)
 Rel. to FTSE World Europe (GBP)                        (18.9)           (33.0)            (35.0)
 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/05/2013 close.




Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet




                                                                 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                  40
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GS Copper 60


Exhibit 48: First Quantum Minerals summary financials and operating statistics 2010-16E
                                              2010       2011       2012     2013E       2014E     2015E      2016E                                                        2010         2011        2012        2013E        2014E         2015E       2016E
Profit model ($ mn)                                                                                                        Divisional EBITDA ($ mn)
Total revenue                                 2,378      2,584      2,950      3,910      4,446      6,318      8,289      Kansanshi                                       1,060       1,259        1,010         958        1,064         1,427        1,880
Operating costs                             (1,051)    (1,163)    (1,677)    (2,204)    (2,390)    (3,239)    (3,952)      Guelb Moghrein                                    153         167          152         130           96           110          131
EBITDA                                        1,328      1,420      1,273      1,706      2,056      3,080      4,337      Ravensthorpe                                         0           0           81        116          208           199          194
Depreciation & amortisation                   (116)      (112)      (172)      (354)      (432)      (524)      (565)      Kevista                                              0           0           41        112          183           195          209
EBIT                                          1,212      1,308      1,101      1,352      1,624      2,556      3,772      Sentinel                                             0           0            0           0          53           590        1,214
Net interest income / (expense)                 (59)        (5)          8     (130)      (282)      (335)      (379)      Enterprise                                           0           0            0           0          (4)           76          181
Exploration                                     (48)       (73)       (50)       (40)       (40)       (40)       (40)     Las Cruces                                           0           0            0        241          267           285          304
G&A                                             (45)       (74)       (76)     (103)      (103)      (103)      (103)      Cayeli                                               0           0            0        104          132           138          156
Others (recurring)                              517           7        (4)        (2)          0          0          0     Pyhasalmi                                            0           0            0         45           57            60           68
Exceptional items                           (1,138)        (48)     1,218        (30)          0          0          0     Cobre Panama                                         0           0            0           0            0            0            0
Pretax profits                                  440      1,116      2,197      1,048      1,199      2,078      3,250      Frontier / Bwana Mkubwa                           122          (3)            0           0            0            0            0
Income tax                                    (495)      (461)      (328)      (338)      (391)      (763)    (1,248)      Corporate / Other                                  (8)         (3)         (11)         (2)            0            0            0
Tax rate (%)                                 31.3%      39.6%      33.5%      31.4%      32.6%      36.7%      38.4%       Underlying EBITDA                               1,328       1,420        1,273       1,706        2,056         3,080        4,337
Minorities                                      (69)     (126)        (97)       (94)     (105)      (144)      (193)      Other
                                                                                                                               Kansanshi        Guelb Moghrein                114
                                                                                                                                                                       Ravensthorpe          Kevista (11)
                                                                                                                                                                                           (6)                      (2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sentinel            0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Other             0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                EBITDA margin0
Net income                                    (123)        529      1,773        615        703      1,171      1,809    4,000                                                                                                                             60%
Non‐recurring items post tax                  1,075          51   (1,218)          30          0          0          0              EBITDA ($ mn)
Net Income (pre‐exceptionals)                   952        580        555        645        703      1,171      1,809    3,500
EPS (underlying) ($)                           2.37       1.30       1.17       1.15       1.19       1.98       3.06                                                                                                                                      50%
EPS (basic, reported) ($)                    (0.31)       1.18       3.74       1.09       1.19       1.98       3.06    3,000
Weighted shares outstanding (mn)              401.3      447.2      473.9      562.6      590.8      590.8      590.8                                                                                                                                      40%
DPS ($)                                        0.16       0.18       0.18       0.17       0.18       0.30       0.46    2,500
Dividend payout ratio (%)                      6.6%     13.6%      15.0%      15.0%      15.0%      15.0%      15.0%
                                                                                                                         2,000                                                                                                                             30%
Growth & margins (%)
Revenue growth                               27.6%       8.6%      14.2%      32.5%      13.7%      42.1%      31.2%
                                                                                                                     1,500
EBITDA growth                                20.1%       7.0%     ‐10.3%      34.0%      20.5%      49.8%      40.8%                                                                                                                                       20%
EBIT growth                                  28.4%       7.9%     ‐15.8%      22.8%      20.1%      57.4%      47.6% 1,000
EPS growth                                  101.5%     ‐45.3%      ‐9.7%      ‐2.1%       3.9%      66.5%      54.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10%
DPS growth                                   42.2%      12.0%      ‐0.5%      ‐1.8%       3.7%      66.5%      54.4%   500
EBITDA margin                                55.8%      55.0%      43.2%      43.6%      46.2%      48.7%      52.3%
EBIT margin                                  51.0%      50.6%      37.3%      34.6%      36.5%      40.5%      45.5%     0                                                                                                                                 0%
Cash flow statement ($ mn)                                                                                                              2010          2011         2012               2013E           2014E                2015E           2016E
Net income                                    (123)        529      1,773        615        703      1,171      1,809      Consolidated production summary (kt)
D&A add‐back                                    116        112        172        354        432        524        565      Copper                                          315.6       265.6        307.1       419.3        523.1         693.3        859.6
Minority interest add‐back                       69        126          97         94       105        144        193        Kansanshi                                     231.1        230.3       261.4        276.2        337.4        369.4         421.3
Other operating cash flow                       700      (386)    (1,699)        152           0         0          0        Guelb Moghrein                                 37.0         35.3        37.7         40.9         41.6         41.6          41.6
Cash flow from operations                       761        381        343      1,215      1,240      1,839      2,567        Kevista                                          0.0         0.0          8.1        14.5         18.9         19.4          19.4
Capital expenditures                          (358)    (1,050)    (1,317)    (1,861)    (1,757)    (3,119)    (2,711)        Sentinel                                         0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0       15.3        153.0         269.4
Net (acquisitions) / divestitures               132         10        692      (620)           0       500          0        Las Cruces                                       0.0         0.0          0.0        53.9         66.7         66.7          64.8
Other                                             0       (59)        (53)     1,985           0         0          0        Cayeli                                           0.0         0.0          0.0        23.4         30.0         30.0          30.0
Cash flow from investing                      (226)    (1,099)      (678)      (496)    (1,757)    (2,619)    (2,711)        Pyhasalmi                                        0.0         0.0          0.0        10.4         13.3         13.3          13.3
Dividends paid                                 (56)       (79)        (91)       (92)     (104)      (107)      (178)        Cobre Panama                                     0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0
Inc / (dec) in debt                            (37)       (93)        334      1,735        100          0          0        Other                                          47.5          0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0
Other financing cash flows                     (18)       (29)        (50)        (6)          0         0          0      Gold (koz)                                      191.4       175.2        201.9       224.9        247.8         283.5        328.8
Cash flow from financing                      (110)      (201)        192      1,637         (4)     (107)      (178)        Kansanshi                                     109.6        112.3       136.1        144.3        161.0        196.2         241.5
Total cash flow                                 426      (919)      (143)      2,356      (521)      (888)      (321)        Guelb Moghrein                                 81.8         62.9        60.5         64.8         64.8         64.8          64.8
Free cash flow                                  536      (659)      (282)    (1,266)      (517)      (780)      (144)        Kevista                                          0.0         0.0          5.4        15.8         22.0         22.5          22.5
Balance sheet ($ mn)                                                                                                         Sentinel                                         0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0
Cash & equivalents (incl. ST investments)    1,385        452        309      2,665      2,144       1,257        935        Cobre Panama                                     0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0
Accounts receivable                            377        238        390        500        500         500        500      Nickel                                            0.0          5.7        36.8         43.7        49.2          77.7         95.5
Inventory                                      391        650        904        993        993         993        993        Ravensthorpe                                    0.0          5.7        32.9         36.0        38.4          38.4         38.4
Other current assets                            27         34        230        176        176         176        176        Kevista                                         0.0          0.0         3.9          7.7         9.4           9.6          9.6
Total current assets                         2,180      1,374      1,833      4,333      3,813       2,925      2,604        Enterprise                                      0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0         1.2          23.7         38.0
Net PP&E                                     2,731      3,824      4,954     11,016     12,341     14,437     16,583       PGE (koz)                                         0.0          0.0        13.5         48.2        65.9          67.5         67.5
Net intangibles                                  0          0          0        444        444         444        444       Kansanshi Guelb Moghrein         Kevista     Sentinel      Las Cruces     Cayeli      Pyhasalmi         Cobre Panama        Other
Total investments                               18         18         56          55        55          55         55    1,000
Other long‐term assets                          29         82        694        790        790         790        790            Copper (kt)
Total assets                                 4,958      5,298      7,536     16,639     17,443     18,651     20,476       900
Accounts payable                               362        273        356        797        797         797        797      800
Short‐term debt                                141         48         49      3,516      3,516       3,516      3,516
Other current liabilities                      462        300         39          37        37          37         37      700
Total current liabilities                      965        622        444      4,349      4,349       4,349      4,349      600
Long‐term debt (incl. CB)                      472         15        348        839        939         939        939
Other long‐term liabilities                    363        493        864      1,742      1,742       1,742      1,742      500
Total long‐term liabilities                    835        508      1,211      2,582      2,682       2,682      2,682
                                                                                                                           400
Total liabilities                            1,801      1,130      1,655      6,930      7,030       7,030      7,030
Total common equity                          2,780      3,676      5,331      7,913      8,513       9,576    11,207       300
Minority interest                              378        493        550      1,796      1,900       2,044      2,238
                                                                                                                           200
Total liabilities & equity                   4,958      5,298      7,536     16,639     17,443     18,651     20,476
Working capital                              1,214        752      1,389        (16)     (536)     (1,424)    (1,745)      100
Net debt / (cash)                            (790)      (407)         32      1,635      2,255       3,143      3,464
                                                                                                                             0
Capital employed                             3,771      4,231      6,278     14,063     14,868     16,076     17,900
                                                                                                                              2010                  2011          2012                 2013E                 2014E                 2015E               2016E
Ratios
CROCI                                        33.1%       1.2%      ‐8.0%      21.6%      15.8%      17.9%      19.4%       Production costs ‐ C1 (GS estimates) (USc/lb)
CROCI / WACC (x)                                3.0        0.1      (0.7)        2.0        1.4        1.6        1.8      Kansanshi                                     111.9          138.4    150.8      149.4      137.2    117.0      115.5
ROIC                                         15.9%      14.9%     11.8%        7.2%       8.2%      10.7%      13.3%       Guelb Moghrein                                 77.2          149.6    150.8      142.5      148.3    145.6      149.2
ROIC / WACC (x)                                 1.4        1.4        1.1        0.7        0.7        1.0        1.2      Sentinel                                         0.0           0.0        0.0      0.0      151.5    139.3      135.7
ROA                                          ‐2.6%      10.3%     27.6%        5.1%       4.1%       6.5%       9.2%       Las Cruces                                       0.0           0.0        0.0    110.1      117.7    117.8      127.5
Net debt / equity                           ‐25.0%      ‐9.8%       0.5%      16.8%      21.7%      27.0%      25.8%       Cayeli                                          0.0            0.0        0.0    101.9       99.4    102.3      104.0
Gearing                                     ‐33.4%     ‐10.8%       0.5%      14.4%      17.8%      21.3%      20.5%       Pyhasalmi                                       0.0            0.0        0.0    108.9      104.8    108.0      110.0
WACC                                         11.0%      11.0%     11.0%       11.0%      11.0%      11.0%      11.0%       Cobre Panama                                     0.0           0.0        0.0      0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0
EBITDA interest cover (x)                     22.6      308.7     ‐153.4       13.1         7.3        9.2      11.4       Ravensthorpe ‐ Ni (US$/lb)                      0.0            0.0        7.4      5.8        4.6       4.8        4.8
Valuation (x)                                                                                                              Kevista ‐ Ni (US$/lb)                           0.0            0.0        7.7      6.4        5.4       5.5        5.5
Share price (p)                              1508        1437       1289        972        972        972        972       Enterprise ‐ Ni (US$/lb)                        0.0            0.0        0.0      0.0        9.4       6.3        5.6
EV (US$ mn)                                  8,942     10,392     10,260     11,842     12,951     13,978     14,402       NPV                                           US$m          UK£ps
EV/sales (x)                                    3.8        4.0        3.5        3.0        2.9        2.2        1.7      Kansanshi                                     5,137           5.68      Pyhasalm
EV/EBITDA (x)                                   6.7        7.3        8.1        6.9        6.3        4.5        3.3      Guelb Moghrein                                  318           0.35           i
P/E (x)                                         9.8       17.8       17.4      13.0       12.5         7.5        4.8      Ravensthorpe                                  1,647           1.82          1%       Cobre 
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Cayeli
Dividend yield                                0.7%       0.8%       0.9%       1.2%       1.2%       2.0%       3.1%       Kevista                                         658           0.73     2%           Panama
FCF yield                                     5.7%      ‐6.4%      ‐2.9%     ‐15.0%      ‐5.9%      ‐8.9%      ‐1.7%       Sentinel                                      4,577           5.06                    13%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Las                    Kansanshi
EV/GCI (x)                                      1.9        1.8        1.4        0.9        0.9        0.8        0.7      Enterprise                                      367           0.41       Cruces                     31%
EV/capital employed (x)                         2.4        2.5        1.6        0.8        0.9        0.9        0.8      Las Cruces                                    1,197           1.32         7%
Price/book (x)                                  3.4        2.8        1.8        1.1        1.0        0.9        0.8      Cayeli                                          424           0.47 Enterpris
                                                                                                                                                                                                  e
Assumptions                                                                                                                Pyhasalmi                                       174           0.19    2%
Copper ($/t)                                 7,532      8,823      7,950      7,216      6,600      6,875      7,500       Cobre Panama                                  2,087           2.31
Copper (¢/lb)                                  342        400        361        327        299        312        340       Operations NPV                              16,585           18.33                 Sentinel          Ravensth
Nickel ($/t)                                21,799     22,909     17,544     16,519     17,000     17,000     17,000       Minorities NPV                              (1,445)         (1.60)                   28%               orpe
Gold ($/oz)                                  1,225      1,570      1,669      1,413      1,144      1,200      1,200       Corporate and exploration                     (646)         (0.71)                                     10%
ZMK/$                                        4,820      4,828      5,200      5,200      5,200      5,200      5,200       Net cash / (debt)                           (1,942)         (2.15)                                            Guelb 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Kevista Moghrein
A$/$                                          1.09       0.97       0.97       1.04       1.18       1.18       1.19       Equity NPV                                  12,552           13.87                                             2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4%
$/£                                           1.55       1.60       1.58       1.54       1.53       1.53       1.52
                                                                                                                           Fawzi Hanano                                             +44 20 7774 8377                                fawzi.hanano@gs.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      08/07/2013



Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    41
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                             GS Copper 60



Kazakhmys (KAZ.L): High cost asset base most affected by lower prices; reiterate Sell
  Investment Profile
  Low                                                                            High             Source of opportunity
  Growth                                                                         Growth           We reiterate our Sell rating on Kazakhmys and lower our 12-month price target to 160p (from 330p) as we factor
  Returns *                                                                      Returns *
                                                                                                  in lower copper and gold price forecasts and roll forward our valuation period to 50/50 2014-15E from 50/50
  Multiple                                                                       Multiple
                                                                                                  2013-14E. We lower our 2013-15E EPS to US$0.43, US$0.07 and US$0.40 from US$0.70, US$0.23 and US$0.31.
  Volatility                                                                     Volatility
                             20th        40th       60th       80th        100th
       Percentile                                                                                 Kazakhmys’ copper production profile should see a strong increase starting in 2015E as the Bozshakol project is
      Kazakhmys (KAZ.L)
                                                                                                  due to commence commercial production, followed by first production from the Aktogay oxide and sulphide ore
      Europe Mining Peer Group Average
* Returns = Return on Capital            For a complete description of the investment
                                                                                                  bodies. However, in the interim, we forecast a flat production profile, continued unit cost pressure and negative
                                         profile measures please refer to the
                                         disclosure section of this document.
                                                                                                  free cash flow generation. We estimate average annual production of copper cathode equivalent of 290-295kt in
                                                                                                  2013-14, with increasing unit costs owing to lower average head grades and general cost inflation. In addition,
 Key data                                                                            Current      we forecast significant negative free cash flow generation through to 2015, reflecting c.US$4 bn of capex for the
 Price (p)                                                                              251.6
 12 month price target (p)                                                                 160
                                                                                                  two major projects, in addition to minor spending on other smaller-sized projects.
 Upside/(downside) (%)                                                                    (36)
 Market cap (£ mn)                                                                    1,317.7     The revised offer for ENRC by the founding shareholders and Kazakh government (as announced by ENRC on
 Enterprise value ($ mn)                                                              4,079.1
                                       12/12           12/13E         12/14E          12/15E      June 24, 2013) was unchanged from the initial offer and values the company below Kazakhmys’ already written-
 Revenue ($ mn) New                   3,353.0          2,908.2        2,732.9         3,459.0
 Revenue revision (%)                      0.0            (5.5)          (6.0)           (0.9)
                                                                                                  down value for its 26% stake. We view a potential completion of the offer as a short-term positive for
 EBIT ($ mn) New                        851.0            255.8            25.8          327.4     Kazakhmys, primarily as it would provide some cash inflow to the group (US$887 mn) in a period of significant
 EBIT revision (%)                         0.0           (38.4)         (78.6)            39.2
 EPS ($) New                             0.94              0.43           0.07            0.40    capital expenditure. However, we believe the company's overall position remains unchanged, characterized by
 EPS ($) Old                             0.94              0.70           0.23            0.31
 EV/EBITDA (X)                             6.6              7.6           18.0            10.0    negative free cash flow generation through to 2015E and rising unit costs on flat production in 2013-14E; the
 P/E (X)                                 13.8               8.8           53.8              9.5
 Dividend yield (%)                        0.9              1.4            0.2              1.6
                                                                                                  latter results in further margin compression, on our estimates, particularly in the current weaker copper and gold
 FCF yield (%)                           (4.8)           (80.2)         (79.4)          (52.8)    price environment. On our estimates, any benefits to near-term cash flow from a sale of ENRC shares would be
 CROCI (%)                                 6.7              2.6            0.7              2.4
                                                                                                  offset by large earnings downgrades from the exclusion of equity accounted profits from Kazakhmys’ current
                                                                                                  26% stake.
Price performance chart
900                                                                                       440

800                                                                                       420
                                                                                                  Catalyst
700                                                                                       400

600                                                                                       380
                                                                                                  We expect the current weak copper and gold price environment to be the primary catalyst for a decline in
500                                                                                       360     Kazakhmys’ share price as the market prices in the implications for the company’s earnings profile.
400                                                                                       340

300                                                                                       320

200                                                                                       300
                                                                                                  Valuation
  Jul-12               Oct-12                Jan-13               Apr-13

                         Kazakhmys (L)           FTSE World Europe (GBP) (R)
                                                                                                  We value Kazakhmys using a 3.75x target EV/EBITDA multiple derived from our GS SUSTAIN framework and
                                                                                                  applied to our 2014-15 EBITDA estimates. Our 12-month price target of 160p (330p) implies 36% downside.

 Share price performance (%)
 Absolute
                                                      3 month
                                                         (31.0)
                                                                    6 month
                                                                       (69.0)
                                                                                   12 month
                                                                                       (66.8)
                                                                                                  Key risks
 Rel. to FTSE World Europe (GBP)                         (32.1)        (70.6)          (72.5)     The most significant risk to our view and price target is a higher-than forecast copper price as we see Kazakhmys
 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/05/2013 close.
                                                                                                  as highly leveraged to copper price movements.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                          42
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60


Exhibit 49: Kazakhmys plc summary financials and operating statistics 2010-16E
                                      2010       2011       2012       2013E      2014E      2015E      2016E                                                           2010          2011        2012        2013E         2014E          2015E          2016E
Profit model ($ mn)                                                                                                 Divisional EBITDA (excluding MET)  ($ mn)
Total revenue                         3,237      3,563      3,353       2,908      2,733      3,459      4,887      Kazakhmys Mining                                   1,715         1,808       1,160          566           326            673           1,380
Operating costs                     (1,530)    (1,791)    (2,226)     (2,369)    (2,421)    (2,793)    (3,517)      Kazakhmys Gold                                         29             0           0            0             0              0               0
EBITDA (excl. MET)                    1,707      1,772      1,127         539        312        666      1,370      Kazakhmys Power                                         0            20          19           24            26             32              30
Segmental EBITDA (KAZ definition)    1,932      1,959      1,364         745        555        977      1,688       MKM                                                     0             0           0            0             0              0               0
Group EBITDA (KAZ definition)        2,754      2,925      1,912       1,399      1,213      1,571      2,357       Petroleum                                             (1)           (1)           0            0             0              0               0
Depreciation & amortisation           (248)      (236)       (276)      (284)      (286)      (338)      (656)      Total operations                                   1,743         1,827       1,179          589           352            706           1,410
EBIT                                  1,459      1,536         851        256         26        327        715      Share of ENRC EBITDA                                 903           966         548          654           659            594             669
Net interest income / (expense)         (47)       (41)       (70)        (92)     (136)      (167)      (191)      Share of Ekibastuz EBITDA                            144           154         189          193           243            312             318
Associates                              560        566    (2,355)         256        279        283        311      Discontinued operations                                81            26          48           13             0              0               0
Others (recurring)                      (21)       (27)       (21)           0         0          0           0     Corporate & other                                    (36)          (55)        (52)         (50)          (40)           (40)            (40)
Exceptional items                     (125)      (131)       (349)           0         0          0           0     Underlying group EBITDA                            2,754         2,925       1,912        1,399         1,213          1,571           2,357
Pretax profits                        1,826      1,903    (1,944)         419        169        443        835
                                                                                                                          Kazakhmys Mining      Kazakhmys Gold              Kazakhmys Power             MKM              Petroleum              EBITDA margin
Mineral Extraction Tax                (236)      (280)       (260)      (210)      (201)      (257)      (366)
                                                                                                                  2,000                                                                                                                                      60%
Income tax                            (202)      (221)        (86)          10        68         21        (35)             EBITDA ($ mn)
Tax rate incl. MET (%)               37.5%      34.1%      45.5%       47.7%      78.4%      53.2%      48.1%     1,800
Income from disc. operations              62      ‐472          20           4         0          0           0                                                                                                                                              50%
                                                                                                                  1,600
Minorities                                 0          0         (1)          0         0          0           0
Net income                            1,450        930    (2,271)         223         36        207        434    1,400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             40%
Non‐recurring items post tax              39       568      2,763            0         0          0           0   1,200
Net Income (pre‐exceptionals)         1,489      1,498         492        223         36        207        434
                                                                                                                  1,000                                                                                                                                      30%
EPS (underlying) ($)                   2.78       2.81        0.94       0.43       0.07       0.40       0.83
EPS (basic, reported) ($)              2.71       1.74     (4.33)        0.43       0.07       0.40       0.83     800
Weighted shares outstanding (mn)      534.7      533.8      524.5       523.7      523.7      523.7      523.7                                                                                                                                               20%
                                                                                                                   600
DPS ($)                                0.22       0.28        0.11       0.05       0.01       0.06       0.12
Dividend payout ratio (%)              8.1%     16.1%       ‐2.5%      12.5%      12.5%      15.0%      15.0%      400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10%
Growth & margins (%)
                                                                                                                   200
Revenue growth                      ‐12.0%      10.1%      ‐5.9%      ‐13.3%      ‐6.0%      26.6%      41.3%
EBITDA growth                        40.9%       3.8%     ‐36.4%      ‐52.1%     ‐42.2%     113.4%     105.8%        0                                                                                                                                       0%
EPS growth                          147.5%       0.8%     ‐66.6%      ‐54.6%     ‐83.7%     469.3%     109.1%                  2010           2011             2012                2013E           2014E                 2015E             2016E
DPS growth                          144.4%      27.3%     ‐60.7%      ‐51.6%     ‐83.7%     583.1%     109.1%       Assumptions
EBITDA margin                        52.7%      49.7%      33.6%       18.5%      11.4%      19.2%      28.0%       Copper ($/t)                                       7,532         8,823       7,950        7,216         6,600          6,875           7,500
EBIT margin                          45.1%      43.1%      25.4%        8.8%       0.9%       9.5%      14.6%       Copper (¢/lb)                                      341.6         400.2       360.6        327.3         299.4          311.8           340.2
Cash flow statement ($ mn)                                                                                          Zinc ($/t)                                         2,162         2,195       1,948        1,996         2,175          2,200           2,200
Net income                           1,450        930     (2,271)         223         36        207        434      Gold ($/oz)                                        1,225         1,570       1,669        1,413         1,144          1,200           1,200
D&A add‐back                           248        236         276         284        286        338        656      Silver ($/oz)                                      20.18         35.23       31.09        24.40         20.60          21.82           21.82
Other operating cash flow            (600)          78      2,687       (257)      (261)      (261)      (294)      Power (c/kWhr)                                      3.05          3.66        4.05         4.35          4.77           5.24            5.24
Cash flow from operations            1,098      1,244         692         249         62        285        795      KZT/$                                              147.4         146.7       149.2        151.0         151.1          150.0           147.0
Capital expenditures                 (590)      (589)     (1,019)     (1,827)    (1,623)    (1,324)      (906)      $/£                                                 1.55          1.60        1.58         1.54          1.53           1.53            1.52
Net (acquisitions) / divestitures        12          0          36           0          0          0         0      Consolidated production summary (kt)
Other                                (537)      (571)           71          18        15           6         3      Kazakhmys Mining
Cash flow from investing             (817)      (595)     (1,207)     (1,590)    (1,592)    (1,318)      (903)      Copper concentrate                              1,473.9         1,426.7     1,445.6      1,518.0       1,548.7        2,064.6     3,055.7
Dividends paid                         (80)     (129)       (121)         (68)        (4)        (6)      (44)      Copper in concentrate                             337.9           304.9       306.1        302.2         299.4          358.0       470.6
Inc / (dec) in debt                    283         (3)        569       1,341        600        700          0        own concentrate                                   334.9         302.7       303.8        302.2         299.4          358.0          470.6
Other financing cash flows              (4)       (83)        (88)           0          0          0         0        purchased concentrate                                 3.0           2.2        2.3          0.0             0.0           0.0           0.0
Cash flow from financing               199      (215)         360       1,272        596        694       (44)      Copper cathode equivalent                          308.7         307.6       295.2        290.9         293.5          351.2           455.4
Total cash flow                        480        434       (155)         (69)     (935)      (340)      (151)        Copper cathode equivalent (own conc)              303.3         298.5       292.2        290.7         293.5          351.2          455.4
Free cash flow                         520        655       (291)     (1,578)    (1,561)    (1,039)      (111)      Zinc in concentrate                                167.3         139.6       151.7        128.0         140.0          167.4           220.0
Balance sheet ($ mn)                                                                                                Zinc metal                                           0.0            0.0        0.0           0.0          0.0             0.0             0.0
Cash & equivalents                   1,469      1,921      1,765       1,696        762        422        270       Silver (koz)                                      14,106        13,137      12,643       11,611        11,600         15,114          22,066
Accounts receivable                    264        190        122         122        122        122        122       Gold (koz)                                         138.4         117.9       115.9         91.5         119.6          178.8           281.9
Inventory                              585        744        750         750        750        750        750       Gold dore (koz)                                     43.1          33.0        13.2           7.7         10.0           10.0            10.0
Other current assets                   200        298        410         410        410        410        410       Total gold                                         181.5         150.9       129.1         99.2         129.6          188.8           291.9
Total current assets                 2,518      3,153      3,047       2,978      2,044      1,704      1,552       Kazakhmys Power                                   16,654.0       18,275.0    19,930.0     20,267.1      21,912.0       24,570.7       25,543.9
Net PP&E                             2,031      2,256      2,448       3,992      5,328      6,314      6,565       Ekibastuz generation (GWhr)                       11,065        12,697      14,368       14,680        16,316         18,902          19,802
Net intangibles                        509          53        64          64         64         64         64       Captive generation (GWhr)                          5,589         5,578       5,562        5,587         5,596          5,669           5,742
Total investments                    5,107      5,448      3,486       3,721      3,968      4,223      4,513                 Copper cathode equ.            Zinc in con.             Gold           Silver (RHS)                Electricity (RHS)
Other long‐term assets                 448        598        701         482        467        467        467       500                                                                                                                               30,000
                                                                                                                             (kt, koz)                                                                                            (koz, GWhr)
Total assets                        10,995     11,731      9,993      11,489     12,120     13,022     13,412
Accounts payable                       403        498        622         622        622        622        622       450
Short‐term debt                        519        525         29          29         29         29         29                                                                                                                                         25,000
                                                                                                                    400
Other current liabilities               70          74        49          49         49         49         49
Total current liabilities              992      1,097        700         700        700        700        700       350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20,000
Long‐term debt                       1,300      1,368      2,439       3,780      4,380      5,080      5,080
Other long‐term liabilities            184        280        431         431        431        431        431       300
Total long‐term liabilities          1,484      1,648      2,870       4,211      4,811      5,511      5,511       250                                                                                                                               15,000
Total liabilities                    2,476      2,745      3,570       4,911      5,511      6,211      6,211
Total common equity                  8,206      8,825      6,259       6,414      6,446      6,647      7,037       200
Minority interest                       13           7         6           6          6          6          6                                                                                                                                         10,000
                                                                                                                    150
Total liabilities & equity          10,995     11,731      9,993      11,489     12,120     13,022     13,412
Working capital                      1,526      2,056      2,347       2,278      1,344      1,004        852       100
Net debt / (cash)                      350        (28)       703       2,112      3,647      4,687      4,838                                                                                                                                         5,000
Capital employed                    10,038     10,725      8,733      10,229     10,860     11,762     12,152        50
Ratios
                                                                                                                      0                                                                                                                               0
CROCI                                11.8%       9.8%       6.5%        2.5%       0.7%       2.4%       5.4%
                                                                                                                                2010          2011           2012                 2013E         2014E             2015E                 2016E
CROCI / WACC (x)                        1.1        0.9        0.6         0.2        0.1        0.2        0.5
ROIC                                 21.2%      19.5%      10.0%        3.7%       0.8%       3.6%       8.1%       Production costs (USc/lb)
ROIC / WACC (x)                         1.9        1.8        0.9         0.3        0.1        0.3        0.7      Net Cu cash cost                                     93.2         114.0      174.0        236.4         245.5          223.5           203.3
ROA                                  13.8%       8.2%     ‐20.9%        2.1%       0.3%       1.6%       3.3%       Gross Cu cash cost                                  210.4         249.0      333.0        350.0         356.5          345.7           339.0
Net debt / equity                     4.3%      ‐0.3%      11.2%       32.9%      56.5%      70.4%      68.7%       Power generation (¢/kWhr)                             1.1            1.3       1.5          1.4           1.5            1.5             1.6
Gearing                               4.1%      ‐0.3%      10.1%       24.8%      36.1%      41.3%      40.7%       NPV                                                US$m          UK£ps
WACC                                 11.0%      11.0%      11.0%       11.0%      11.0%      11.0%      11.0%       Kazakhmys Mining                                    3,833            4.8      Assets 
                                                                                                                                                                                                 held for 
EBITDA interest cover (x)             36.3       43.2       16.1          5.8        2.3        4.0        7.2      Kazakhmys Power (captive)                           (380)          (0.5)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   sale
Valuation (x)                                                                                                       Operations NPV                                      3,453            4.3       0%
Share price (p)                      1,338      1,203        813         252        252        252        252       ENRC holding                                        1,231            1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Ekibastuz 
EV (US$ mn)                         11,425     10,279      7,466       4,148      5,674      6,713      6,843       Ekibastuz holding                                   2,001            2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                              holding
EV/sales (x)                            3.5        2.9        2.2         1.4        2.1        1.9        1.4      Assets held for sale                                    0            0.0                   28%
EV/EBITDA (x)                           6.7        5.8        6.6         7.7       18.2      10.1         5.0      Corporate and other                                 (371)          (0.5)
P/E (x)                                 7.4        6.9      13.7          9.1       55.5        9.7        4.6      Net cash / (debt)                                 (2,112)          (2.6)                                              Kazakhmy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           s Mining
P/E (excluding ENRC) (x)              11.4       10.0         2.3       20.8      (27.1)      14.1         5.9      Equity NPV                                          4,202            5.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             52%
Dividend yield                        1.1%       1.5%       0.9%        1.4%       0.2%       1.5%       3.3%                                                                                                 ENRC 
FCF yield                             4.7%       6.4%      ‐4.3%      ‐77.7%     ‐77.2%     ‐51.5%      ‐5.6%                                                                                                holding
                                                                                                                                                                                                              18%
EV/GCI (x)                              0.9        0.8        0.6         0.3        0.3        0.4        0.4
EV/capital employed (x)                 1.1        1.0        0.9         0.4        0.5        0.6        0.6
Price/book (x)                          1.3        1.2        1.1         0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3
                                                                                                                    Fawzi Hanano                                                  +44 20 7774 8377                                 fawzi.hanano@gs.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      08/07/2013



Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       43
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                              GS Copper 60



Lundin Mining (LUN.TO): M&A overhang removed, time for project delivery; 12m PT to
C$4.90, reiterate Buy
  Investment Profile
                                                                                                 Source of opportunity
  Low                                                                           High

  Growth                                                                        Growth
                                                                                                 Lundin Mining has one of the strongest growth profiles in our coverage, with growth projects delivering in the
  Returns *                                                                     Returns *        near term both from the recently acquired Eagle mine (due to come online 4Q2014) and from expansions at
  Multiple                                                                      Multiple         wholly owned assets (Zinkgruvan, Neves Corvo), in addition to increased volumes from Tenke (Lundin owns a
  Volatility                                                                    Volatility       24% equity share of the asset).
       Percentile            20th      40th        60th        80th        100th
       Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN.TO)                                                        We do not believe Lundin’s growth profile and FCF generation potential are reflected in the current share price;
       Europe Mining Peer Group Average                                                          our 12-month EV/EBITDA-based price target implies 26% upside and we reiterate our Buy rating.
* Returns = Return on Capital           For a complete description of the investment
                                        profile measures please refer to the
                                        disclosure section of this document.
                                                                                                 Catalyst
 Key data                                                                             Current    Following the completion of the Eagle mine acquisition, we believe the risk of Lundin engaging in dilutive M&A
 Price (C$)                                                                              3.90    is significantly reduced, with the focus instead on delivering growth at operations. In this respect, we see Lundin
 12 month price target (C$)                                                              4.90
 Upside/(downside) (%)                                                                     26    as a straight play on base metals (primarily copper and zinc), with high FCF to be delivered in 2015E as Eagle capex
 Market cap (C$ mn)                                                                   2,272.6
 Enterprise value ($ mn)                                                              2,359.2    subsides. We expect Lundin to be highly cash generative in 2015E, allowing for potential dividends or M&A.
                                        12/12          12/13E         12/14E          12/15E
 Revenue ($ mn) New                     721.1           702.4          683.9            903.4    Near term we expect Lundin to announce its technical study for the Eagle mine, and highlight potential upside
 Revenue revision (%)                     0.0            (4.6)          (2.9)             0.0
 EBIT ($ mn) New                        120.2             79.9         107.2            174.8    risks from lower capex and ahead-of-schedule delivery following an in-depth study by Lundin’s operational
 EBIT revision (%)                        0.0           (29.8)         (15.5)             0.0
 EPS ($) New                             0.33             0.24           0.24            0.39    team. At other wholly owned operations, we expect a recovery from Zinkgruvan following a weaker-than-
 EPS ($) Old                             0.33             0.32           0.36            0.45
 EV/EBITDA (X)                           10.2             10.3           10.0             5.2
                                                                                                 expected 1Q (backfill issues) and a return to c.US$20/lb zinc cash costs, and continued solid production from
 P/E (X)                                 14.4             15.0           15.2             9.4    Neves Corvo.
 Dividend yield (%)                       0.0              0.0            0.0             0.0
 FCF yield (%)                            4.8            (1.7)          (6.2)            14.4
 CROCI (%)                                6.8              6.3            5.9             8.5    From Tenke, we expect Lundin to continue receiving cash reimbursements and look for updates on further
                                                                                                 Tenke expansions and further monetization of the Tenke Cobalt stream following the acquisition of the Kokkola
                                                                                                 cobalt refinery by the Tenke partners (Lundin Mining and Freeport).
Price performance chart
 6.0                                                                                      480

 5.5                                                                                      450    Valuation
 5.0                                                                                      420    We incorporate our latest copper/gold and silver price forecasts, and make minor adjustments to our model. We
 4.5                                                                                      390    lower our 2013-15E EPS to US$0.24, US$0.24 and US$0.39 from US$0.32, US$0.36 and US$0.45.
 4.0                                                                                      360
                                                                                                 We value Lundin Mining using a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.75x (5.5x) that we derive using our GS SUSTAIN
 3.5                                                                                      330
                                                                                                 framework. We apply this 50/50 to our 2014/15 estimates (including Tenke’s attributable EBITDA; previously
 3.0                                                                                      300
   Jul-12              Oct-12                Jan-13               Apr-13                         100% 2014E) to derive our price target. Our new 12-month price target is C$4.90 (previously C$5.40), implying
                 Lundin Mining Corporation (L)          FTSE World Europe (GBP) (R)
                                                                                                 26% upside.

 Share price performance (%)                          3 month       6 month        12 month      Key risks
 Absolute                                                (7.1)         (24.4)          (13.5)
 Rel. to FTSE World Europe (GBP)                         (8.6)         (28.3)          (28.3)    Key risks to our view and price target include lower-than-forecast commodity pricing (primarily copper and zinc),
 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/05/2013 close.
                                                                                                 country risk in Democratic Republic of Congo, and technical issues at key ramp-up projects (Eagle).

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet



                                                              Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                    44
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60


Exhibit 50: Lundin Mining summary financials and operating statistics 2010-16E
Dec year end                        2010     2011    2012E     2013E     2014E     2015E     2016E                                                   2010         2011        2012E       2013E       2014E     2015E      2016E
Profit model (USD mn)                                                                                  Salient metrics
Total revenue                         849      784      721       702       684       903     1,025    Price target (12 months, CAD)                  4.90
Costs                               (411)    (453)    (479)     (473)     (435)     (480)     (510)    Last close                                     3.90
EBITDA                                438      331      243       229       249       423       515    Upside (downside)                              26%
Depreciation & amortisation         (122)    (154)    (122)     (149)     (142)     (248)     (252)    Rating                                          Buy
EBIT                                  316      177      120        80       107       175       263    Copper production (t)
Equity accounted profits           75.874       95      102       105       100       120       168    Smelters Tenke Fungurume (DRC)               Neves‐Corvo (Portugal)                         Zinkgruvan (Sweden)
Net finance cost                        36    (13)       (7)     (10)      (16)      (17)       (12)          Agua‐Blanca (Spain)                   Eagle (USA)
Other income/ (expenses)               (2)      12       (0)       17         0                        200,000
Pre‐tax profit                      426.2    270.5    213.9     192.0     191.4     278.6     418.1
Income tax                          (120)     (51)     (23)      (49)      (50)      (50)      (61)
                                                                                                       150,000
Tax rate (%)                         28%      19%      11%       25%       26%       18%       15%
Minorities                               0       0         0        0         0         0         0
Underlying net income               306.3    219.5    190.4     143.1     141.6     228.6     357.0    100,000
Underlying EPS (EUR)                 0.53     0.38     0.33      0.24      0.24      0.39      0.61
Total Extraordinaries                 (53)    (36)     (67)         0         0         0         0     50,000
Reported net profit                   253      184      123       143       142       229       357
Reported EPS basic (EUR)             0.44     0.32     0.21      0.24      0.24      0.39      0.61          0
Weighted shares outstanding (mn)      582      582      583       584       584       584       584               2011     2012     2013   2014     2015       2016        2017    2018      2019     2020      2021     2022
DPS                                  0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00      0.00      0.00    NPV valuation
Dividend payout ratio (%)              0%       0%       0%        0%        0%        0%        0%
Growth & margins (%)                                                                                   Asset                                      NPV US$ mn               NPV US$ / share
Revenue growth                       14%      ‐8%       ‐8%       ‐3%      ‐3%       32%       13%     Neves‐Corvo (Portugal)                          717                     1.23
EBITDA growth                        25%     ‐24%      ‐27%       ‐6%       9%       70%       22%     Zinkgruvan (Sweden)                             613                     1.05
EBIT growth                          75%     ‐44%      ‐32%      ‐34%      34%       63%       50%     Agua‐Blanca (Spain)                              40                     0.07
EPS growth                          225%     ‐27%      ‐33%       16%      ‐1%       61%       56%     Galmoy (Eire)                                     9                     0.02
EBITDA margin                        52%      42%       34%       33%      36%       47%       50%     Tenke Fungurume (DRC)                         1,873                     3.21
EBIT margin                          37%      23%       17%       11%      16%       19%       26%     Eagle (USA)                                     285                     0.49
Cash flow statement (USD mn)                                                                           Total mining assets                           3,538                     6.07
Net income                            253      184      119        38        41       108       189    Minorities                                        0                     0.00
Minorities                              0        0        0         0         0         0          0   Net debt (2013E)                                207                     0.36
Tenke cash flow                         0        0       60       121       132       125       199    Total Lundin                                  3,330                     5.71
DD&A                                  122      154      122       149       142       248       252
Others                              (125)     (84)        0         0         0         0          0   Divisional EBIT
Cash flow from operations             250      254      301       309       315       481       641    Neves‐Corvo (Portugal)                          248          180           135         44         69       132         157
Per Share                            0.43     0.44     0.52      0.53      0.54      0.82      1.10    Zinkgruvan (Sweden)                              81           63            90         64         81        90         104
Dividends                               0        0        0         0         0         0          0   Eagle (USA)                                                                                        4         2          51
Net cash flow from operations         250      254      301       309       315       481       641    Agua‐Blanca (Spain)                              25          ‐20           ‐23         19          2         0           0
Share buy‐back                          0        0        0         0         0         0          0   Galmoy (Eire)                                     7           26            15          9          0         0           0
Capital expenditures                (160)    (253)    (174)     (326)     (393)     (136)     (101)    Other                                           ‐21          ‐29           ‐31        ‐24        ‐22       ‐22         ‐22
Acquisitions                            0        0        0     (441)         0         0          0   Exploration and corp development                ‐24          ‐43           ‐66        ‐32        ‐27       ‐27         ‐27
Divestments                             0        0        0         0         0         0          0   Total EBIT                                      316          177           120         80        107       175         263
Working capital movements            (27)       57        6      (19)      (56)      (35)        (3)   Tenke income stream (equity accounted)           76           95           102        105        100       120         168
Stock issuance                          0        0        0         0         0         0          0   Assumptions
Other                                 143       19    (103)         5         0         0          0   Gold ($ / oz)                                 1,225        1,570       1,669       1,413       1,144      1,200      1,200
Surplus/deficit                       205       77       29     (473)     (134)       311       536    Silver ($ / oz)                                20.2         35.2        31.1        24.4        20.6       21.8       21.8
Balance sheet (USD mn)                                                                                 Copper ($ / tonne)                            7,532        8,823       7,950       7,200       6,600      6,875      7,500
Cash & Cash equivalents               199      265       275        89        21       332       869   Zinc ($ / tonne)                              2,162        2,194       1,948       1,996       2,175      2,200      2,200
Stocks                                 32       41        49        37        68        96        98   Lead ($ / tonne)                              2,148        2,403       2,061       2,189       2,338      2,365      2,365
Debtors                               232      116       111       119       157       205       211   Cobalt ($/lb)                                  20.8         16.1        10.5        13.0        15.0       15.0       14.0
Other current assets                    7       11         6         0         0         0         0   Valuation (x)
Total current assets                  469      434       441       246       247       634     1,178   Share price                                    3.90         3.90        3.90        3.90        3.90      3.90       3.90
Gross fixed assets                  2,092    2,193     2,382     2,971     3,365     3,501     3,601   Market Cap                                    2,786        3,664       2,746       2,152       2,152     2,152      2,152
Accumulated depreciation            (842)    (951)   (1,112)   (1,236)   (1,378)   (1,627)   (1,879)   EV (USD mn)                                   2,627        3,428       2,481       2,359       2,494     2,183      1,647
Net fixed assets                    1,249    1,242     1,271     1,735     1,987     1,874     1,723   EV/sales                                         3.1          4.4         3.4         3.4         3.6       2.4        1.6
Net intangibles                       233      190       166       161       161       161       161   EV/EBITDA                                        6.0        10.4        10.2        10.3        10.0        5.2        3.2
Equity method investments              32       20        39        32        32        32        32   P/E                                            11.0         19.9        22.3        15.0        15.2        9.4        6.0
Investment in securities            1,735    1,887     2,003     2,103     2,071     2,067     2,036   Dividend yield                                 0.0%         0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%      0.0%       0.0%
Other long‐term assets                107       92        71        70        70        70        70   FCF yield                                      2.2%         1.6%        4.8%       ‐1.7%       ‐6.2%     14.4%      24.9%
Total assets                        3,826    3,864     3,990     4,347     4,569     4,838     5,200   EV/GCI                                           0.6          0.8         0.5         0.4         0.4       0.4        0.3
Accounts payable                       71       72       120        97       106       139       143   EV/capital employed                              0.8          1.0         0.7         0.6         0.6       0.5        0.4
Short‐term debt                         3       22         3        86        86        86        86   Price/book                                       0.9          1.1         0.8         0.6         0.6       0.5        0.5
Other current liabilities             120       74        30        25        28        36        37   ADAPTCAPIHISTO
Total current liabilities             194      168       153       208       221       262       266   Ratios
Long‐term debt                         37        8         7       210       277       277       277   CROCI                                            5%           6%        7%            6%          6%        8%        11%
Other long‐term liabilities           442      391       356       344       344       344       344   CROCI / WACC                                     0.8          0.9       1.0           0.9         0.8       1.2        1.6
Total liabilities                     673      566       515       762       841       882       887   ROIC                                          19.2%       11.9%       8.5%          4.2%        4.7%      7.4%      10.0%
Total common equity                 3,154    3,298     3,475     3,585     3,727     3,956     4,313   ROIC / WACC                                      2.7          1.7       1.2           0.6         0.7       1.1        1.4
Minority interest                       0        0         0         0         0         0         0   ROA                                            6.7%         4.8%      3.1%          3.4%        3.2%      4.9%       7.1%
Total liabilities & equity          3,826    3,864     3,990     4,347     4,569     4,838     5,200   Net debt / equity                             ‐5.0%        ‐7.2%     ‐7.6%          5.8%        9.2%      0.8%     ‐11.7%
                                                                                                       Net debt / EBITDA                            ‐36.4%      ‐71.3% ‐109.3%            90.5%      137.2%      7.4%     ‐98.1%
Net debt / (cash)                   (159)    (236)    (265)       207       342        31     (505)    Gearing                                         ‐5%          ‐8%       ‐8%            5%          8%        1%       ‐13%
Capital employed                    3,193    3,327    3,485     3,882     4,091     4,319     4,676    WACC                                           7.0%         7.0%      7.0%          7.0%        7.0%      7.0%       7.0%
                                                                                                       EBIT interest cover                             ‐4.2         ‐1.9      ‐1.2          ‐0.8        ‐1.1      ‐1.5       ‐1.6
                                                                                                       Fawzi Hanano                                           +44 20 7774 8377                            fawzi.hanano@gs.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          08/07/2013



Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                        45
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Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research       46
July 9, 2013                                                                                    GS Copper 60




                                           Appendix 2: Copper supply / demand balance




                                                             Appendix 2: Copper supply/demand balance




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                 47
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60


Exhibit 51: Copper supply/demand balance

('000 tonnes)                                                                                                                                                    CAGRs
                                                       2006       2007       2008        2009     2010    2011    2012    2013E   2014E   2015E   2016E '11-'16E '06-'11
   Global Production
      Mine Supply                                      15076      15535      15708       15960    16185   16101   16639   17260   18056   18883   19496   3.9%      1.3%
       % change                                        1.0%       3.1%       1.1%        1.6%     1.4%    -0.5%   3.3%     3.7%    4.6%    4.6%    3.2%
      Including disruption allowance (%)                                                                                   2.8%    5.2%    7.9%   10.7%
      Refined Production                               17235      17962      18262       18309    19017   19687   19809   20497   21539   22617   23319   3.4%      2.7%
       % change                                         4.0%       4.2%       1.7%        0.3%     3.9%    3.5%    0.6%    3.5%    5.1%    5.0%    3.1%
   DM Consumption
     US                                                2111        2137       2021        1648    1764     1819    1777    1866   2015    2116    2179    3.7%      -2.9%
     Japan                                             1307        1268       1199         876    1060     1006    985      995   1015    1035    1045    0.8%      -5.1%
     Western Europe                                    3894        3623       3389        2803    3060     2941    2665    2532   2608    2738    2957    0.1%      -5.5%
     Oth. OECD                                         2329        2300       2183        2052    2209     2101    2055    2055   2096    2159    2224    1.1%      -2.0%
     Sub-Total OECD                                    9641       9328       8792         7379    8092    7867    7482    7448    7734    8048    8406    1.3%      -4.0%
      % change y/y                                     1.7%       -3.2%      -5.7%       -16.1%   9.7%    -2.8%   -4.9%   -0.5%   3.8%    4.1%    4.4%
   EM Consumption
     China                                             3967        4670      5046         6523     7416    7941    8179    8670    9103    9558   10132   5.0%     14.9%
     India                                              407        516        529          552      580     593     582     617     666     720     777   5.6%     7.8%
     Russia                                             670        678        679          395      445     708     669     689     710     731     753   1.2%     1.1%
     Brazil                                             339        331        372          316      452     395     419     436     458     485     514   5.4%     3.1%
     Oth. Emerging Mkts.                               2465        2472      2469         2311     2273    2260    2335    2381    2477    2576    2679   3.5%     -1.7%
     Sub-Total Emerging Markets                        7848       8668       9096        10097    11166   11896   12184   12793   13413   14070   14855   4.5%     8.7%
      % change y/y                                     5.0%       10.4%      4.9%        11.0%    10.6%    6.5%    2.4%    5.0%    4.9%    4.9%    5.6%
   Global Consumption                                  17489      17996      17888       17477    19258   19763   19666   20240   21147   22118   23260   3.3%      2.5%
       % change y/y                                     3.1%       2.9%      -0.6%        -2.3%   10.2%    2.6%   -0.5%    2.9%    4.5%    4.6%    5.2%
     Of which, ex-China                                13522      13326      12842       10954    11842   11823   11487   11571   12044   12559   13129   2.1%      -2.6%
       % change y/y                                     2.9%      -1.4%      -3.6%       -14.7%    8.1%   -0.2%   -2.8%    0.7%    4.1%    4.3%    4.5%
      OECD as % of global                               55%        52%        49%          42%     42%     40%     38%     37%     37%     36%     36%
      Emerging Mkts as % of global                      45%        48%        51%          58%     58%     60%     62%     63%     63%     64%     64%


   Global Supply / Demand Balance                       -254        -34       374         833     -241     -77    143     257     392     500      59


   Prices1                                                                                                                                                        L.Term1
     Cash (annual average; $/t)                  6729      7124       6951               5163     7543    8824    7959    7216    6600    6875    7500                6608
     Cash (annual average; c/lb)                  305       323        315                234      342     400     361     327     299     312     340                300
     1.
Note: All prices in nominal, except for LT which is in $2013 real terms

Source: Wood Mackenzie, LME, SHFE, Comex, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                    48
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                            GS Copper 60


                                 Exhibit 52: Copper supply/demand balance

                                  1000                                                                                                                                    26000
                                              kt                                                                                                                   kt


                                                                                                                                 Base forecast of growing 
                                   800
                                                                                                                                 surplus  through to 2015E 
                                                                                                                                 before returning to balance in           24000
                                                                                                                                 2016E+
                                   600


                                                                                                                                                                          22000
                                   400



                                   200
                                                                                                                                                                          20000


                                      0
                                             2006         2007         2008        2009         2010        2011          2012   2013E    2014E     2015E     2016E
                                                                                                                                                                          18000
                                  ‐200


                                                            Surplus / (Deficit)                   Consumption (RHS)                  Refined production (RHS)
                                  ‐400                                                                                                                                    16000

                                 Source: Wood Mackenzie, LME, SHFE, Comex, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                         49
July 9, 2013                                                                    GS Copper 60




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Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                 50
July 9, 2013                                                                              GS Copper 60




                                 Appendix 3: GS Copper 60 project summaries




                                                      Appendix 3: GS Copper 60 project summaries




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                           51
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60


Exhibit 53: GS Copper 60 projects summary
                                                                                                                       Announced            GS         Unit capex  Unit capex  NPV @ 11%   NPV @ 11%                                         Cu price                                 Total cash  Total cash 
                                                                                          Project      Board  Start                                                                                         Payback               IRR                  Peak         Cu  LOM avg Cu                              EBITDA 
Project                    Owner 1                    Country          Status                                             Capex           Capex      (US$ / t)     (US$ / t)     (incl. sunk)    (2013+)                IRR                required @                                    cost        cost      
                                                                                           type       approved date                                                                                          (years)           (2013+)                    output          output                                margin
                                                                                                                        (US$ mn)        (US$ mn)           Cu       Cu equ.       (US$ mn)       (US$ mn)                                    15% IRR                                     ($/t)      (c/lb)
Agua Rica                  Glencore Xstrata            Argentina       Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2019      $2,120          $3,132 $20,881 /t $15,320 /t                $945           $945       4.81    16.8%    16.8% $6,082 /t          250 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,536 /t 160 c/lb        52%
Aktogay                    Kazakhmys                   Kazakhstan      Construction      Greenfield     No     2015      $2,000          $2,100 $23,333 /t $22,054 /t               ‐$371           ‐$50      12.09     8.8%    10.6% $8,258 /t          135 ktpa         90 ktpa      $4,366 /t 198 c/lb        36%
Andina Phase 2             Codelco                     Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2021      $6,800          $8,800 $25,656 /t $23,674 /t               ‐$207          ‐$207       9.27    10.6%    10.6% $8,270 /t          343 ktpa        343 ktpa      $3,813 /t 173 c/lb        47%
Antapaccay                 Glencore Xstrata            Peru            Producing         Brownfield     Yes    2012      $1,470          $1,500 $10,490 /t $9,700 /t                $1,102         $2,561      5.65    17.9%       ‐‐       $6,095 /t    160 ktpa        143 ktpa      $4,020 /t 182 c/lb        43%
Antucoya                   Antofagasta                 Chile           Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $1,900          $2,000 $25,000 /t $25,000 /t               ‐$687          ‐$182      12.95     6.0%     9.2%       $9,375 /t     80 ktpa         80 ktpa      $4,592 /t 208 c/lb        35%
Aynak                      China Metallurgical Group CoAfghanistan     Permitting        Greenfield     Yes    2017      $4,400          $5,616 $17,549 /t $17,549 /t              ‐$1,274        ‐$1,161      9.56     6.0%     6.3%       $8,506 /t    320 ktpa        320 ktpa      $4,197 /t 190 c/lb        38%
Bozshakol                  Kazakhmys                   Kazakhstan      Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $1,900          $2,000 $26,667 /t $20,725 /t                $210          $1,122      7.53    12.1%    22.7% $7,499 /t          130 ktpa         75 ktpa      $3,675 /t 167 c/lb        46%
Buenavista SX/EW III       Southern Copper             Mexico          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014        $444            $500         $4,167 /t $4,167 /t         $1,424         $1,650      3.67    38.5%   104.9% $5,129 /t          120 ktpa        120 ktpa      $4,410 /t 200 c/lb        34%
Buenavista DC              Southern Copper             Mexico          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2015      $1,383          $1,681         $8,848 /t $8,469 /t         $1,640         $2,058      5.65    19.7%    27.1% $5,767 /t          190 ktpa        190 ktpa      $4,129 /t 187 c/lb        41%
Canariaco                  Candente Copper Corp        Peru            Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $1,437          $1,926 $15,163 /t $14,161 /t                $277           $277       7.74    13.1%    13.1% $6,990 /t          127 ktpa        127 ktpa      $4,091 /t 186 c/lb        42%
Caserones                  JX Nippon Metals & Mining Chile             Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $3,000          $3,308 $27,563 /t $25,167 /t               ‐$341          $2,046      8.35     9.6%    41.3% $8,032 /t          180 ktpa        120 ktpa      $3,834 /t 174 c/lb        44%
Cerro Casale               Barrick Gold                Chile           Permitting        Greenfield     No     2018      $6,000          $7,000 $63,636 /t $30,911 /t               ‐$461          ‐$461       8.92     9.8%     9.8% $10,941 /t 110 ktpa                110 ktpa       $73 /t      3 c/lb       70%
Cerro Verde                Freeport                    Peru            Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2016      $4,400          $5,000 $18,382 /t $16,958 /t               $1,252         $1,838      7.73    13.7%    15.7% $6,965 /t          272 ktpa        272 ktpa      $3,771 /t 171 c/lb        50%
Chuquicamata U/G           Codelco                     Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2018      $4,156          $5,569 $15,217 /t $15,217 /t               $1,958         $1,958      7.06    15.3%    15.3% $6,447 /t          366 ktpa        366 ktpa      $3,847 /t 174 c/lb        40%
Cobre Panama               First Quantum               Panama          Feasibility       Greenfield     Yes    2017      $4,751          $5,500 $20,677 /t $18,730 /t               $1,631         $2,236      6.72    14.3%    16.3% $6,783 /t          298 ktpa        266 ktpa      $3,394 /t 154 c/lb        55%
Collahuasi GL4             Glencore Xstrata            Chile           Pre‐feasibility   Brownfield     No     2017      $4,000          $5,105 $14,797 /t $14,797 /t                $133           $133       9.77    11.3%    11.3% $7,497 /t          345 ktpa        345 ktpa      $4,306 /t 195 c/lb        36%
Constancia                 Hudbay Minerals             Peru            Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $1,546          $1,704 $20,053 /t $17,092 /t                 $38           $803       6.51    11.5%    25.0% $7,485 /t          118 ktpa         85 ktpa      $3,701 /t 168 c/lb        49%
Cuajone                    Southern Copper             Peru            Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2018        $500            $670        $13,401 /t $12,815 /t         $139           $139       7.33    14.3%    14.3% $6,675 /t           50 ktpa         50 ktpa      $4,265 /t 193 c/lb        39%
DeGrussa                   Sandfire Resources          Australia       Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2012        $400            $400         $5,195 /t $4,840 /t          $465           $776       2.30    36.5%       ‐‐       $5,017 /t     77 ktpa         77 ktpa      $3,778 /t 171 c/lb        49%
El Moro                    GoldCorp                    Chile           Permitting        Greenfield     Yes    2017      $3,900          $4,515 $34,729 /t $25,508 /t               ‐$363          ‐$137       7.66     9.4%    10.4% $8,794 /t          160 ktpa        130 ktpa      $2,348 /t 106 c/lb        62%
El Pachon                  Glencore Xstrata            Argentina       Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $4,100          $4,984 $17,798 /t $17,798 /t                $655           $655       7.44    13.0%    13.0% $7,029 /t          400 ktpa        280 ktpa      $4,067 /t 184 c/lb        43%
Encuentro Oxides           Antofagasta                 Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016        $600            $695        $13,892 /t $13,892 /t        ‐$101          ‐$101       7.15     5.8%     5.8%       $7,777 /t     50 ktpa         50 ktpa      $4,247 /t 193 c/lb        41%
Encuentro Sulphides        Antofagasta                 Chile           Pre‐feasibility   Brownfield     No     2021      $3,500          $4,500 $30,000 /t $23,724 /t                 $73            $73       9.27    11.3%    11.3% $7,959 /t          150 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,500 /t 159 c/lb        47%
Escondida OGP1             BHP                         Chile           Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2015      $3,800          $4,399 $17,596 /t $17,596 /t                $623          $1,702      9.07    12.5%    16.5% $7,343 /t          250 ktpa        250 ktpa      $4,060 /t 184 c/lb        46%
Esperanza Sur              Antofagasta                 Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2017      $3,500          $4,000 $28,571 /t $22,665 /t                 $32            $32       9.74    11.1%    11.1% $8,258 /t          140 ktpa        140 ktpa      $3,398 /t 154 c/lb        47%
Frieda River               Glencore Xstrata            PNG             Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2018      $5,600          $6,900 $36,316 /t $29,290 /t              ‐$1,104        ‐$1,104      9.97     7.8%     7.8%       $9,365 /t    262 ktpa        190 ktpa      $3,485 /t 158 c/lb        49%
Galeno                     China Minmetals             Peru            Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $3,900          $4,740 $23,702 /t $19,736 /t               ‐$375          ‐$375       8.36     9.4%     9.4%       $8,277 /t    200 ktpa        200 ktpa      $3,533 /t 160 c/lb        52%
Grasberg DMLZ              Freeport                    Indonesia       Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2015      $2,300          $2,750 $11,702 /t $9,752 /t                $1,482         $2,165      6.87    18.0%    28.9% $5,945 /t          235 ktpa        235 ktpa      $3,743 /t 170 c/lb        44%
Grasberg BC                Freeport                    Indonesia       Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2017      $4,400          $5,348         $9,466 /t $8,020 /t         $3,427         $4,519      5.85    18.2%    25.9% $5,818 /t          565 ktpa        565 ktpa      $3,724 /t 169 c/lb        45%
Haquira                    First Quantum               Peru            Scoping           Greenfield     No     2018      $2,058          $3,041 $15,754 /t $14,237 /t                $436           $436       6.60    13.8%    13.8% $6,785 /t          230 ktpa        193 ktpa      $4,025 /t 183 c/lb        43%
Inca de Oro                Panaust                     Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016        $742            $902        $18,038 /t $16,029 /t         $113           $113       7.55    13.0%    13.0% $6,997 /t           60 ktpa         50 ktpa      $3,855 /t 175 c/lb        39%
Kamoa                      Ivanplats                   DRC             Pre‐feasibility   Greenfield     No     2018      $2,500          $3,191 $16,196 /t $16,196 /t               $1,334         $1,334      6.79    16.5%    16.5% $6,112 /t          197 ktpa        197 ktpa      $3,887 /t 176 c/lb        54%
Kansanshi Sulphide         First Quantum               Zambia          Permitting        Brownfield     No     2015        $400            $463         $7,124 /t $7,124 /t          $475           $520       3.83    27.7%    32.0% $5,259 /t           65 ktpa         65 ktpa      $3,990 /t 181 c/lb        45%
Konkola Deep               Vedanta                     Zambia          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2013        $973          $1,050         $6,000 /t $6,000 /t          $966          $1,982      6.25    15.6%   313.0% $6,453 /t          175 ktpa        175 ktpa      $4,685 /t 212 c/lb        28%
Las Bambas                 Glencore Xstrata            Peru            Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2015      $5,200          $5,733 $18,494 /t $16,358 /t                $134          $2,970      7.00    11.3%    25.6% $7,575 /t          400 ktpa        310 ktpa      $3,824 /t 173 c/lb        47%
Los Bronces                Anglo American              Chile           Producing         Brownfield     Yes    2011      $2,800          $2,900 $15,263 /t $15,263 /t               $2,517         $4,570      5.69    18.7%       ‐‐       $5,983 /t    278 ktpa        190 ktpa      $3,925 /t 178 c/lb        44%
Lubambe                    African Rainbow Minerals    Zambia          Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2012        $454            $454        $10,089 /t $10,089 /t         $154           $533       7.57    14.3%   104.6% $6,706 /t          45 ktpa          45 ktpa      $4,553 /t 206 c/lb        32%
Michiquillay               Anglo American              Peru            Scoping           Greenfield     No     2019      $3,000          $4,432 $19,966 /t $17,740 /t               ‐$143          ‐$143       8.66    10.4%    10.4% $7,882 /t          222 ktpa        222 ktpa      $4,014 /t 182 c/lb        43%
Ministro Mina Hales        Codelco                     Chile           Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2013      $3,100          $3,255 $17,787 /t $16,728 /t               ‐$436          $1,724      9.33     8.8%    37.5% $7,859 /t          183 ktpa        183 ktpa      $3,937 /t 179 c/lb        42%
Morenci                    Freeport                    USA             Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014      $1,400          $1,544 $15,435 /t $13,270 /t                $662          $1,190      7.81    15.2%    23.2% $6,514 /t          100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,934 /t 178 c/lb        40%
Olympic Dam Phase 1        BHP                         Australia       Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2018      $3,000          $4,020 $26,802 /t $23,756 /t                ‐$75           ‐$75      10.06    10.7%    10.7% $8,243 /t          150 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,822 /t 173 c/lb        33%
Oyu Tolgoi open pit only   Rio Tinto                   Mongolia        Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2013      $6,188          $6,188 $41,253 /t $30,925 /t               ‐$169          $6,098      9.21    10.3%       ‐‐       $9,036 /t    200 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,264 /t 148 c/lb        54%
Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave      Rio Tinto                   Mongolia        Feasibility       Brownfield     Yes    2016      $5,101          $5,905 $12,051 /t $10,516 /t               $3,348         $3,461      6.00    18.8%    19.3% $5,780 /t          490 ktpa        490 ktpa      $3,574 /t 162 c/lb        52%
Pebble                     Anglo American              USA (Alaska)    Pre‐feasibility   Greenfield     No     2019      $4,690          $6,929 $23,098 /t $16,423 /t               $2,018         $2,018      6.57    15.0%    15.0% $6,534 /t          350 ktpa        300 ktpa      $3,080 /t 140 c/lb        54%
Quebrada Blanca            Teck                        Chile           Feasibility       Brownfield     No     2016      $5,600          $6,500 $32,500 /t $29,958 /t              ‐$1,385         ‐$909      11.17     8.1%     8.9%       $9,291 /t    250 ktpa        200 ktpa      $4,135 /t 188 c/lb        43%
Quellaveco                 Anglo American              Peru            Permitting        Greenfield     No     2017      $3,000          $4,221 $18,761 /t $16,912 /t                ‐$40           ‐$40       9.28    10.9%    10.9% $7,756 /t          225 ktpa        225 ktpa      $4,106 /t 186 c/lb        41%
Radomiro Tomic             Codelco                     Chile           Pre‐feasibility   Brownfield     No     2017      $5,400          $6,564 $19,136 /t $19,136 /t                $518           $518       9.24    12.0%    12.0% $7,357 /t          343 ktpa        343 ktpa      $4,094 /t 186 c/lb        40%
Relincho                   Teck                        Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2018      $3,900          $4,740 $26,336 /t $23,752 /t               ‐$763          ‐$731      10.04     8.2%     8.3%       $8,769 /t    220 ktpa        180 ktpa      $3,873 /t 176 c/lb        43%
Resolution                 Rio Tinto                   USA (Arizona)   Scoping           Greenfield     No     2021      $3,152          $5,391 $10,782 /t $10,060 /t               $2,508         $2,508      5.54    19.0%    19.0% $5,810 /t          500 ktpa        500 ktpa      $4,156 /t 188 c/lb        41%
Salobo 1                   Vale                        Brazil          Producing         Greenfield     Yes    2012      $2,337          $2,337 $23,370 /t $18,923 /t                $486          $2,878      9.41    11.8%       ‐‐       $7,939 /t    100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,438 /t 156 c/lb        46%
Salobo 2                   Vale                        Brazil          Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014      $1,707          $1,792 $17,924 /t $14,513 /t               $1,001         $2,035      6.79    15.9%    38.8% $6,277 /t          100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,411 /t 155 c/lb        46%
Santo Domingo              Capstone Mining             Chile           Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2017      $1,800          $2,084 $32,057 /t $18,245 /t                $352           $352       7.19    13.8%    13.8% $6,922 /t          115 ktpa         65 ktpa      $2,028 /t 92 c/lb         54%
Schaft Creek               Copper Fox Metals           Canada          Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016      $3,256          $3,769 $31,943 /t $22,413 /t                $106           $218       8.66    11.4%    11.9% $8,065 /t          124 ktpa        118 ktpa      $2,769 /t 126 c/lb        56%
Sentinel                   First Quantum               Zambia          Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $2,000          $2,205         $7,603 /t $7,603 /t         $2,453         $3,115      4.91    24.6%    39.1% $5,366 /t          290 ktpa        290 ktpa      $4,056 /t 184 c/lb        46%
Sierra Gorda               KGHM                        Chile           Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $5,000          $5,250 $21,875 /t $18,144 /t                $193          $2,468      9.41    11.5%    23.9% $7,688 /t          240 ktpa        240 ktpa      $3,298 /t 150 c/lb        49%
Tampakan                   Glencore Xstrata            Philippines     Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2019      $5,900          $7,250 $19,333 /t $16,312 /t                $451           $451       6.59    12.3%    12.3% $7,248 /t          450 ktpa        375 ktpa      $3,686 /t 167 c/lb        46%
Tenke Fungurume            Freeport                    DRC             Producing         Brownfield     Yes    2012        $850            $900        $13,235 /t $10,071 /t        $1,618         $1,986      4.49    32.7%       ‐‐       $4,218 /t     68 ktpa         68 ktpa      $3,431 /t 156 c/lb        54%
Tia Maria                  Southern Copper             Peru            Feasibility       Greenfield     No     2016      $1,200          $1,532 $12,763 /t $12,763 /t                 $70            $70       8.24    11.8%    11.8% $7,166 /t          120 ktpa        120 ktpa      $4,353 /t 197 c/lb        38%
Toquepala                  Southern Copper             Peru            Construction      Brownfield     Yes    2014        $850            $937         $9,371 /t $8,536 /t         $1,158         $1,560      5.14    21.6%    39.5% $5,421 /t          100 ktpa        100 ktpa      $3,930 /t 178 c/lb        44%
Toromocho                  Chinalco                    Peru            Construction      Greenfield     Yes    2014      $3,500          $3,859 $18,375 /t $15,696 /t                $176          $3,123      9.09    11.2%    43.2% $7,881 /t          210 ktpa        210 ktpa      $4,076 /t 185 c/lb        44%
Udokan                     Metalloinvest               Russia          Feasibility       Greenfield     Yes    2016      $3,000          $3,647 $24,310 /t $24,310 /t                ‐$86           ‐$86      10.90    10.7%    10.7% $8,010 /t          150 ktpa        150 ktpa      $3,923 /t 178 c/lb        44%
Wafi Golpu                 Harmony Gold                PNG             Pre‐feasibility   Greenfield     No     2019      $4,800          $6,432 $18,378 /t $14,748 /t               $1,084         $1,084      7.53    13.5%    13.5% $7,034 /t          350 ktpa        350 ktpa      $3,650 /t 166 c/lb        46%
Total                      ‐                           ‐               ‐                     ‐           ‐       ‐      $180,117        $218,811 $18,184 /t $15,933 /t             $28,390        $66,154      8.41    12.7%    16.6% $7,231 /t 13,183 ktpa 12,033 ktpa                $3,807 /t 173 c/lb        45%

Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         52
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60


Exhibit 54: GS Copper 60 project production details to 2030E
kt Cu                      2012    2013E    2014E   2015E   2016E   2017E   2018E   2019E    2020E    2021E    2022E    2023E    2024E    2025E    2026E    2027E    2028E    2029E    2030E
Agua Rica                     0        0        0       0       0       0       0      79      250      250      250      250      138      138      138      138      138      138      138
Aktogay                       0        0        0      15      37      96     133     133      118      111      111      111      111       81       81       81       81       81       81
Andina Phase 2                0        0        0       0       0       0       0       0        0      114      274      342      342      342      342      342      342      342      342
Antapaccay                   10      100      160     160     160     160     140     140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140
Antucoya                      0        0        0      10      65      80      80      80       80       80       80       80       80       80       80       80       80       80       80
Aynak                         0        0        0       0       0      59     197     319      319      319      319      319      319      319      319      319      319      319      319
Bozshakol                     0        0        0      34     112     134     123     112      101       89       89       89       89       89       89       89       89       89       89
Buenavista DC                 0        0        0      16     126     189     189     189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189
Buenavista SX/EW III          0       20       79     119     119     119     119     119      119      119      119      119      119      119      119      119      119      119      119
Canariaco                     0        0        0       0       0      40     101     128      128      128      128      128      128      128      128      128      128      128      128
Caserones                     0        0       94     160     180     180     180     180      180      180      180      180      180       87       87       87       87       87       87
Cerro Casale                  0        0        0       0       0       0      28      76      110      110      110      110      110      110      110      110      110      110      110
Cerro Verde                   0        0        0       0     136     249     272     272      272      272      272      272      272      272      272      272      272      272      272
Chuquicamata U/G              0        0        0       0       0       0      52     261      366      366      366      366      366      366      366      366      366      366      366
Cobre Panama                  0        0        0       0       0      97     279     299      299      299      299      299      299      299      299      299      299      299      299
Collahuasi GL4                0        0        0       0       0      55     218     300      300      300      300      300      300      300      300      300      300      300      300
Constancia                    0        0        0      66     118     118     118     118       77       77       77       77       77       77       77       77       77       77       77
Cuajone                       0        0        0       0       0       0      17      50       50       50       50       50       50       50       50       50       50       50       50
DeGrussa                      0       58       77      77      77      77      77      77        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
El Moro                       0        0        0       0       0      68     159     159      159      159      128      128      128      128      128      128      128      128      128
El Pachon                     0        0        0       0       0      49     197     399      399      399      399      263      263      263      263      263      263      263      263
Encuentro Oxides              0        0        0       0      10      44      50      50       50       50       50       50       50        0        0        0        0        0        0
Encuentro Sulphides           0        0        0       0       0       0       0       0        0       46      124      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150
Escondida OGP1                0        0        0      57     197     250     250     250      250      250      250      250      250      250      250      250      250      250      250
Esperanza Sur                 0        0        0       0       0      36     116     140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140      140
Frieda River                  0        0        0       0       0       0      82     181      304      304      304      304      181      181      181      181      181      181      181
Galeno                        0        0        0       0       0     115     200     200      200      200      200      200      200      200      200      200      200      200      200
Grasberg DMLZ                 0        0        0      29      73     117     175     234      234      234      234      234      234      234      234      234      234      234      234
Grasberg BC                   0        0        0       0       0      88     177     283      424      565      565      565      565      565      565      565      565      565      565
Haquira                       0        0        0       0       0       0      69     184      230      230      230      230      230      230      230      230      149      149      149
Inca de Oro                   0        0        0       0      15      59      59      59       59       44       44       44       44       44       44       44       44       44       44
Kamoa                         0        0        0       0       0       0      30     138      197      197      197      197      197      197      197      197      197      197      197
Kansanshi Sulphide            0        0        0      23      65      65      65      65       65       65       65       65       65       65       65       65       65       65        0
Konkola Deep                  0       25       75     125     175     175     175     175      175      175      175      175      175      175      175      175      175      175      175
Las Bambas                    0        0        0     133     310     399     399     399      399      310      310      310      310      310      310      310      310      310      310
Los Bronces                 196      278      278     278     189     189     189     189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189      189
Lubambe                       0       15       38      45      45      45      45      45       45       45       45       45       45       45       45       45       45       45       45
Michiquillay                  0        0        0       0       0       0       0      56      223      223      223      223      223      223      223      223      223      223      223
Ministro Mina Hales           0       17      100     183     183     183     183     183      183      183      183      183      183      183      183      183      183        0        0
Morenci                       0        0       16      70     101     101     101     101      101      101      101      101      101      101      101      101      101      101      101
Olympic Dam Phase 1           0        0        0       0       0       0     100     150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150
Oyu Tolgoi open pit           0       66      151     197     148     115      66      41       41       41       41       41       41       41       41       41       41       41       41
Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave         0        0        0       0      66     197     394     493      493      493      493      493      493      493      493      493      493      493      493
Pebble                        0        0        0       0       0       0       0      72      181      361      361      361      361      298      298      298      298      298      298
Quebrada Blanca               0        0        0       0      30     118     251     251      251      251      229      229      229      229      229      200      200      200      200
Quellaveco                    0        0        0       0       0      64     192     224      224      224      224      224      224      224      224      224      224      224      224
Radomiro Tomic                0        0        0       0       0     171     274     343      343      343      343      343      343      343      343      343      343      343      343
Relincho                      0        0        0       0       0       0      61     137      220      220      220      220      180      180      180      180      180      180      180
Resolution                    0        0        0       0       0       0       0       0        0      182      364      500      500      500      500      500      500      500      500
Salobo 1                     13       62      100     100     100     100     100     100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100
Salobo 2                      0        0       37     100     100     100     100     100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100
Santo Domingo                 0        0        0       0       0      27      81     114      114      114      114      114       65       65       65       65       65       65       65
Schaft Creek                  0        0        0       0      39      82     125     125      125      125      125      125      125      125      125      125      125      125      125
Sentinel                      0        0       39     171     289     289     289     289      289      289      289      289      289      289      289      289      289      289      289
Sierra Gorda                  0        0       31      94     137     175     200     237      237      237      237      237      237      237      237      237      237      237      237
Tampakan                      0        0        0       0       0       0       0     125      375      451      451      451      451      375      375      375      375      375      375
Tenke Fungurume              29       69       69      69      69      69      69      69       69       69       69       69       69       69       69       69       69       69       69
Tia Maria                     0        0        0       0      24      83     118     118      118      118      118      118      118      118      118      118      118      118      118
Toquepala                     0        0       23      77     100     100     100     100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100      100
Toromocho                     0        0      125     179     210     210     210     210      210      210      210      210      210      210      210      210      210      210      210
Udokan                        0        0        0       0      45      91     150     150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150      150
Wafi Golpu                    0        0        0       0       0       0       0      34      207      345      345      345      345      345      345      345      345      345      345
Total                       248     709     1,493   2,586   3,850   5,630   7,925   9,905   11,221   11,977   12,343   12,438   12,115   11,805   11,805   11,775   11,694   11,511   11,446


Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                  53
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                            GS Copper 60



Exhibit 55: Detailed incremental production in 2013-15E             Exhibit 56: Detailed incremental production in 2013-15E
GS Copper 60 2013-15E production by status, country and company     GS Copper 60 2013-15E production by project

kt Cu                                       2013E   2014E   2015E   kt Cu                                       2013E   2014E   2015E
Producing                                     400     624     678                       Los Bronces                81      81      81
In construction                                61     620   1,637                       Antapaccay                 90     150     150
Permitting                                      0       0      23               Oyu Tolgoi open pit                66     151     197
Feasibility                                     0       0       0                        Toromocho                  0     125     179
Pre-feasibility / Scoping                       0       0       0                     Konkola Deep                 25      75     125
Total                                        461    1,245   2,338                           Salobo 1               49      87      87
               annual increase                461     784   1,094                         Caserones                 0      94     160
                                                                                Ministro Mina Hales                17     100     183
kt Cu                                       2013E   2014E   2015E             Buenavista SX/EW III                 20      79     119
Chile                                          98     307     585                Tenke Fungurume                   40      40      40
Peru                                           90     299     605                          DeGrussa                58      77      77
Mongolia                                       66     151     197                           Salobo 2                0      37     100
Zambia                                         40     152     364                          Lubambe                 15      38      45
Mexico                                         20      79     135                           Sentinel                0      39     171
Brazil                                         49     124     187                      Sierra Gorda                 0      31      94
Kazakhstan                                      0       0      48                         Toquepala                 0      23      77
Australia                                      58      77      77                            Morenci                0      16      70
Indonesia                                       0       0      29                       Las Bambas                  0       0     133
USA                                             0      16      70                        Constancia                 0       0      66
DRC                                            40      40      40                  Escondida OGP1                   0       0      57
Total                                        461    1,245   2,338                         Bozshakol                 0       0      34
                  annual increase             461     784   1,094                   Grasberg DMLZ                   0       0      29
                                                                                Kansanshi Sulphide                  0       0      23
kt Cu (attributable)                        2013E   2014E   2015E                    Buenavista DC                  0       0      16
Glencore Xstrata                               90     150     283                           Aktogay                 0       0      15
Codelco                                        41     124     207                          Antucoya                 0       0      10
Vale                                           57     143     209                              Total             461    1,245   2,338
Southern Copper                                20     102     212                   annual increase               461     784   1,094
First Quantum                                   0      39     189
Vedanta                                        20      59      99
Freeport                                       23      36     109
Rio Tinto                                      22      51      84
Anglo American                                 41      41      41
KGHM                                            0      17      51
Kazakhmys                                       0       0      48
BHP Billiton                                    0       0      33
Antofagasta                                     0       0       7
Other                                         148     482     765
Total                                        461    1,245   2,338
              annual increase                 461     784   1,094
Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.                           Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                         54
                                                                                                                                                                                            Required copper price  (US$/t Cu)




                                                                                                                                     4,000
                                                                                                                                                          5,000
                                                                                                                                                                               6,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      7,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   8,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                9,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   July 9, 2013




                                                                                                                                              Tenke Fungurume DeGrussa
                                                                                                                                                                Buenavista SX/EW III
                                                                                                                                                                   Kansanshi Sulphide
                                                                                                                                                                     Sentinel
                                                                                                                                                                      Toquepala
                                                                                                                                                                              Buenavista DC

                                                                                                                                                                              Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave




                                                                                                                                         Q1
                                                                                                                                                                               Resolution




                                           Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
                                                                                                                                                                               Grasberg BC




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
                                                                                                                                                                                   Grasberg DMLZ
                                                                                                                                                                                    Los Bronces
                                                                                                                                                                                      Agua Rica
                                                                                                                                                                                      Antapaccay
                                                                                                                                                                                       Kamoa




                                                                                                                            3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                           Salobo 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 57: GS Copper 60 incentive price curve




                                                                                                                                                                                               Chuquicamata U/G
                                                                                                                                                                                               Konkola Deep
                                                                                                                                                                                                Morenci
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Pebble
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cuajone
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Lubambe




                                                                                                                                         Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cobre Panama
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Haquira
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Santo Domingo
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Cerro Verde
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Canariaco
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Inca de Oro
                                                                                                                                                                                                            El Pachon
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Wafi Golpu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tia Maria




                                                                                                                            6,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Tampakan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            US$7,231 /t (US 328 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Escondida OGP1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Radomiro Tomic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Constancia




                                                                                       Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            average required copper price of




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Collahuasi GL4




                                                                                                                                         Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Bozshakol
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Las Bambas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sierra Gorda
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Quellaveco
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Encuentro Oxides
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Ministro Mina Hales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Toromocho
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Michiquillay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Salobo 1




                                                                                                                            9,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Encuentro Sulphides
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Udokan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Caserones
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Schaft Creek
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Olympic Dam Phase 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aktogay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Esperanza Sur
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Andina Phase 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4th quartile:




                                                                                                                                        Q4


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Galeno
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aynak
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Relincho
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               El Moro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oyu Tolgoi open pit only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Quebrada Blanca
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       US$7,882 /t (US 358 c/lb)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Frieda River
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Antucoya
                                                                                                                            12,000




55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60
July 9, 2013                                                                                                    GS Copper 60



GS Copper 60 project summaries
 Aqua Rica                                                Exhibit 59   Kansanshi Sulphide                   Exhibit 91
 Aktogay                                                  Exhibit 60   Konkola Deep                         Exhibit 92
 Andina Phase 2                                           Exhibit 61   Las Bambas                           Exhibit 93
 Antapaccay                                               Exhibit 62   Los Bronces                          Exhibit 94
 Antucoya                                                 Exhibit 63   Lubambe                              Exhibit 95
 Aynak                                                    Exhibit 64   Michiquillay                         Exhibit 96
 Bozshakol                                                Exhibit 65   Ministro Mina Hales                  Exhibit 97
 Buenavista SX/EW III                                     Exhibit 66   Morenci                              Exhibit 98
 Buenavista DC                                            Exhibit 67   Olympic Dam Phase 1                  Exhibit 99
 Canariaco                                                Exhibit 68   Oyu Tolgoi Open Pit (stand-alone)   Exhibit 100
 Caserones                                                Exhibit 69   Oyu Tolgoi Open Pit (base case)     Exhibit 101
 Cerro Casale                                             Exhibit 70   Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave               Exhibit 102
 Cerro Verde                                              Exhibit 71   Oyu Tolgoi Total                    Exhibit 103
 Chuquicamata U/G                                         Exhibit 72   Pebble                              Exhibit 104
 Cobre Panama                                             Exhibit 73   Quebrada Blanca                     Exhibit 105
 Collahuasi Grinding Line 4                               Exhibit 74   Quellaveco                          Exhibit 106
 Constancia                                               Exhibit 75   Radomiro Tomic                      Exhibit 107
 Cuajone                                                  Exhibit 76   Relincho                            Exhibit 108
 DeGrussa                                                 Exhibit 77   Resolution                          Exhibit 109
 El Moro                                                  Exhibit 78   Salobo 1                            Exhibit 110
 El Pachon                                                Exhibit 79   Salobo 2                            Exhibit 111
 Encuentro Oxides                                         Exhibit 80   Santo Domingo                       Exhibit 112
 Encuentro Sulphides                                      Exhibit 81   Schaft Creek                        Exhibit 113
 Escondida OGP1                                           Exhibit 82   Sentinel                            Exhibit 114
 Esperanza Sur                                            Exhibit 83   Sierra Gorda                        Exhibit 115
 Frieda River                                             Exhibit 84   Tampakan                            Exhibit 116
 Galeno                                                   Exhibit 85   Tenke Fugurume                      Exhibit 117
 Grasberg DMLZ                                            Exhibit 86   Tia Maria                           Exhibit 118
 Grasberg Block Cave                                      Exhibit 87   Toquepala                           Exhibit 119
 Haquira                                                  Exhibit 88   Toromocho                           Exhibit 120
 Inca de Oro                                              Exhibit 89   Udokan                              Exhibit 121
 Kamoa                                                    Exhibit 90   Wafi Golpu                          Exhibit 122



Exhibit 58 explains how to interpret the project summaries.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                 56
  July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               GS Copper 60




 Exhibit 58: Sample project summary explained


                                                                                                                                                                                               Average LOM                                            GS capex
                                                Project name                                                                       Country                                                     production                                             estimate                            Project IRR


                                     Cerro Verde                                              Peru                                                                       272 ktpa                                             US$5,000 mn                         14% IRR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Other,
                       The Cerro Verde mine is an open pit copper mine situated in Peru. The ownership of SMCV is shared between                                                                                                                     6.1%
                       Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (53.6%), SMM Cerro Verde Netherlands B.V. (21%), Compania de Minas
                       Buenaventura S.A.A. (19.3%), and other shareholders accounting for the remainding (6.1%). The expansion plan                                                                                                        Minas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Buenavent
                       for the mine could triple its annual copper capacity, targeting an increase in concentrator throughput from 120ktpd                                                                                               ura, 19.3%
                       to 360ktpd. The EIS for the US$4.4 bn expansion was approved in 2012 and initial construction activities                                                                                                                               Freeport ,                         Project
Project                commenced in early 2013 with c.US$0.6 bn spent by May 2013. The expansion will add c.272ktpa of copper and                                                                                                                              53.6%                             ownership
description            c.7ktpa of molybdenum to SMCV’s production capacity, and will drive a c.85% increase in its water requirements,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sumitomo,
                       which is expected to be achieved from a new wastewater treatment plant. Management expects no opposition,                                                                                                              21.0%
                       particularly as it will use treated sewage for its water needs. The feasibility study was concluded in 2011 and SMCV
                       filed an ESIA in November 2011.



                     Production profile                                                  Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
                     300                                                           8.0                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                   14%
                           Cu (kt)                                       Mo (kt)                                       2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        NPV (including sunk costs)                           US$1,252
                                                                                   7.0                                 1,500                                                                                            NPV (2013)                                           US$1,838
                     250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                    US$6,965 /t
                                                                                         Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


                                                                                   6.0                                 1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Capex                                              US$5,000 mn
                     200                                                                                                                                                                                                Capex / t Cu production                             US$18,382
                                                                                   5.0                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Capex / t Cu equ. production                        US$16,958
                                                                                                                           -                                                                                            Project type                                         Brownfield
                     150                                                           4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Project status                                     Construction
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Salient
                                                                                                                        -500                                                                                                                                                                     project
                                                                                   3.0                                                                                                                                  Ore reserves / resources                              4,194 mt
                     100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         metrics
                                                                                                                       -1,000                                                                                           Copper grade                                          0.37% Cu
                                                                                   2.0                                                                                                                                  Contained copper                                      15,518 kt
                                                                                                                       -1,500
                      50                                                                                                                                                                                                Commissioning                                             2016
                                                                                   1.0
                                                                                                                       -2,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                                 272 ktpa
                                                                                                                                              2014E

                                                                                                                                                      2016E

                                                                                                                                                               2018E

                                                                                                                                                                       2020E

                                                                                                                                                                               2022E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2024E

                                                                                                                                                                                                2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                2030E
                                                                                                                                2010

                                                                                                                                       2012




                       0                                                           0.0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                                 272 ktpa
                           2013E
                           2014E
                           2015E
                           2016E
                           2017E
                           2018E
                           2019E
                           2020E
                           2021E
                           2022E
                           2023E
                           2024E
                           2025E
                           2026E
                           2027E
                           2028E
                           2029E
                           2030E
                            2010
                            2011
                            2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Life of mine                                               33
                                                                                                                           Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow          Gross unit cost                                     US$3,086 /t
                                       Copper         Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Net unit cost (C1)                                  US$2,587 /t




                                       Production profile                                                                                     Cash flow profile



  Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




  Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              57
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           GS Copper 60


Exhibit 59: Agua Rica


                 Agua Rica                                       Argentina                                                                            150 ktpa                                            US$3,132 mn                          17% IRR
  The Agua Rica project is located approximately 35km from the Alumbrera mine in north-west Argentina. The project
  is owned by Yamana Gold and is currently in the feasibility stage with completion of the feasibility study expected in                                                                                                         Yamana
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Gold,
  2013. However, a four-year option is held by a joint-venture operation between Glencore Xstrata (50%), Goldcorp                                                                                                                 12.5%
  (37.5%), and Yamana (12.5%) to acquire a 100% interest in the project. In September 2011, Glencore Xstrata,
  Goldcorp and Yamana Gold announced they had reached a definitive agreement providing their Minera Alumbrera                                                                                                                             Glencore
  joint venture with the exclusive option to acquire Yamana's 100% interest in the Agua Rica copper-gold project. The                                                                                                                     Xstrata,
  company's analysis to date indicates the project has the potential to produce approximately 250kt of copper and                                                                                                   Goldcorp,              50.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     37.5%
  140koz gold per annum for the first five years and average 150kt and 130koz respectively over the life of the mine.
  Work is underway on enhanced feasibility studies relating to the deposit and on ascertaining synergies that may
  exist with the existing Alumbrera infrastructure. Early company estimates have total capex for the project of
  c.US$2.1 bn. If an investment decision is made to go ahead with the project then there is a potential to transition
  from Minera Alumbrera to Agua Rica in 2018-19.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
300                                                            12.0                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                                  17%
      Cu (kt)                                        Mo (kt)                                        1,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                           US$945
                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPV (2013)                                           US$945
250                                                            10.0
                                                                                                    1,000                                                                                           Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                  US$6,082 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex                                            US$3,132 mn
200                                                            8.0                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu production                           US$20,881
                                                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu equ. production                      US$15,320
150                                                            6.0                                                                                                                                  Project type                                       Brownfield
                                                                                                        -                                                                                           Project status                                     Feasibility
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                              909 mt
100                                                            4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Copper grade                                        0.49% Cu
                                                                                                     -500
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                                     4,454 kt
 50                                                            2.0                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                           2019

                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                          Peak copper production                               250 ktpa
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
  0                                                            0.0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                               150 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                              21

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                   US$3,748 /t
                 Copper        Gold        Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                                US$2,245 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                           58
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60


Exhibit 60: Aktogay


                  Aktogay                                      Kazakhstan                                                                                 90 ktpa                                        US$2,100 mn                        9% IRR

  The Aktogay mine is located in eastern Kazakhstan and is solely owned by Kazakhmys. The deposit has a
  measured and indicated oxide resource of 121mt of ore with a 0.37% copper grade, and a sulphide resource of
  1,597mt of ore with a 0.33% copper grade. The deposit also contains some molybdenum by-product. The
  development of Aktogay is expected to cost c.US$2 bn and produce copper at an average rate of 104ktpa over the
  first 10 years of production, and average c.72ktpa over the life of mine. The company has secured project financing                                                                                                           Kazakhmy
  by agreeing to terms with China Development Bank for a US$1.5 bn debt facility. The feasibility study was                                                                                                                     s, 100.0%
  completed in late 2012 and the project received board approval in December 2012. Kazakhmys has opted to
  develop the project in two stages, first developing the oxide deposit through an SX/EW operation starting in 2015
  over a 10-year period. Following the construction of mining infrastructure, first metal from the sulphide deposit is
  expected to be produced in 2016.



Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                             Economics summary
140                                                              2.5                                                                                                                               Internal rate of return                            9%
      Cu (kt)                                        Mo (kt)                                         600
                                                                                                                                                                                                   NPV (including sunk costs)                   -US$371
120                                                                                                                                                                                                NPV (2013)                                    -US$50
                                                                                                     400
                                                                 2.0                                                                                                                               Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$8,258 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



100                                                                                                  200                                                                                           Capex                                     US$2,100 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capex / t Cu production                    US$23,333
                                                                 1.5
 80                                                                                                    -                                                                                           Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$22,054
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Project type                                Greenfield
                                                                                                     -200
 60                                                                                                                                                                                                Project status                            Construction
                                                                 1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ore reserves / resources                      1,267 mt
                                                                                                     -400
 40                                                                                                                                                                                                Copper grade                                 0.38% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Contained copper                              4,815 kt
                                                                 0.5                                 -600
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                Commissioning                                    2015

                                                                                                     -800                                                                                          Peak copper production                        135 ktpa
                                                                                                            2010

                                                                                                                   2012

                                                                                                                          2014E

                                                                                                                                  2016E

                                                                                                                                          2018E

                                                                                                                                                  2020E

                                                                                                                                                           2022E

                                                                                                                                                                   2024E

                                                                                                                                                                           2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                   2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                           2030E
  0                                                              0.0                                                                                                                               Average LOM production                         90 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Life of mine                                     36+

                                                                                                       Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                            US$3,858 /t
                        Copper         Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,533 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                  59
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60




Exhibit 61: Andina


           Andina Phase 2                                              Chile                                                                           343 ktpa                                            US$8,800 mn                       11% IRR


  The Andina mine is owned by Codelco and located at Saladillo 50km north-east of Santiago in Chile. After the
  completion of phase one of the project, which took processing capacity from 72ktpd to an average 94ktpd resulting
  in an increase of 70ktpa of copper, the company is embarking on phase two of the project. The second phase is set
  to ramp up daily processing capacity by 150kt to a total of 244kt. The mine is expected to have an extended LOM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Codelco,
  given the 47Mt of copper resource base of the deposit. Codelco is currently awaiting the approval of its revised                                                                                                                100.0%
  Environmental Impact Study (EIS) after its submission in late 2011. The project is expected to employ a maximum
  of 17,500 workers during the construction stage. Prior to this the company expects to complete a feasibility and
  present it to the Board of Directors which will then make a decision on the construction of the development.Codelco
  expects capex to total US$6.8bn with a start date of 2021.



Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
400                                                             10.0                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                           11%
       Cu (kt)                                        Mo (kt)                                        2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                   -US$207
                                                                9.0
350                                                                                                  1,500                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                   -US$207
                                                                8.0                                                                                                                                  Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$8,270 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




300                                                                                                  1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                     US$8,800 mn
                                                                7.0
                                                                                                       500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                    US$25,656
250
                                                                6.0                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$23,674
                                                                                                         -                                                                                           Project type                                Brownfield
200                                                             5.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                              Feasibility
                                                                4.0                                   -500
150                                                                                                                                                                                                  Ore reserves / resources                      5,800 mt
                                                                3.0                                  -1,000                                                                                          Copper grade                                 0.80% Cu
100                                                                                                                                                                                                  Contained copper                             46,400 kt
                                                                2.0                                  -1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commissioning                                    2021
 50
                                                                1.0                                                                                                                                  Peak copper production                        343 ktpa
                                                                                                     -2,000
                                                                                                                            2014E

                                                                                                                                    2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
                                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                                     2012




   0                                                            0.0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                        343 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                     30+

                                                                                                         Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow          Gross unit cost                            US$3,307 /t
                      Copper       Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                         US$2,811 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    60
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60


Exhibit 62: Antapaccay


                  Antapaccay                                                 Peru                                                                      143 ktpa                                            US$1,500 mn                       18% IRR


   Antapaccay is located in Peru approximately 10km from another Glencore Xstrata mine, Tintaya. The
   commencement of the Antapaccay mine was designed to coincide with the closure of Tintaya in late 2012, thereby
   allowing the new operation to use existing infrastructure and lower the capital cost. Glencore Xstrata expects the
   Antapaccay deposit will enjoy reduced operating costs due to lower mine strip ratios, economies of scale, and use                                                                                                              Glencore
   of a modern concentrator. The Tinitaya mine will be used to store the tailings from Antapaccay reducing the                                                                                                                    Xstrata,
   environmental impact of the project and the capital expenditure. The project received board approval and a capital                                                                                                             100.0%
   budget of US$1.47bn in mid 2010 and was commissioned in the second half of 2012, in-line with schedule and
   budget. We expect the operation to ramp-up to full capacity of 160ktpa by end 2013 and maintain this run-rate
   through to 2017.



 Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
 180                                                             900                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                          18%
       Cu (kt)                                       Ag (koz)                                          800
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                  US$1,102
 160                                                             800                                   600                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                  US$2,561
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$6,095 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)

 140                                                             700                                   400
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                     US$1,500 mn
 120                                                             600                                   200
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                    US$10,490
                                                                                                         -                                                                                           Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$9,700
 100                                                             500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project type                                Brownfield
                                                                                                      -200
  80                                                             400                                                                                                                                 Project status                              Producing
                                                                                                      -400                                                                                           Ore reserves / resources                       511 mt
  60                                                             300
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                 0.49% Cu
                                                                                                      -600
  40                                                             200                                                                                                                                 Contained copper                              4,900 kt
                                                                                                      -800                                                                                           Commissioning                                    2012
  20                                                             100
                                                                                                     -1,000                                                                                          Peak copper production                        160 ktpa
                                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                                     2012

                                                                                                                            2014E

                                                                                                                                    2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
   0                                                             0                                                                                                                                   Average LOM production                        143 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                       21

                                                                                                         Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                            US$3,527 /t
                  Copper         Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,057 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                  61
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        GS Copper 60


Exhibit 63: Antucoya


                 Antucoya                                             Chile                                                                                80 ktpa                                        US$2,000 mn                            6% IRR

  The Antucoya deposit is located in Chile approximately 45km east of Antofagasta's existing Michilla mine. It is
  owned by Antofagasta (70%) and Marubeni, which recently closed a transaction to acquire 30% of the mine for
  US$350 mn. The project to develop the deposit received approval from the board of Antofagasta in December 2011                                                                                                        Marubeni,
  after receiving environmental permits in June that year. The project was temporarily suspended in December 2012                                                                                                        30.0%
  reflecting cost inflation concerns. However, following a detailed review management decided to resume
  development stating that the review provided greater certainty and control over development costs and other
  relevant parameters for the project as well as strengthened the mine plan. Antucoya will be a conventional open pit                                                                                                               Antofagast
  mine using a heap-leaching facility and an SX-EW plant. The project is currently in the construction phase with first                                                                                                              a, 70.0%
  production expected in 2015. The mine is expected to produce an average annual output of 85kt of copper
  cathodes over the first 10 years of production. Antofagasta is guiding to total capex of US$1.9bn (up from
  US$1.7bn previously and the initial estimate of US$1.3bn).


Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
 90                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                                6%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      400
                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPV (including sunk costs)                       -US$687
 80                                                                                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                       -US$182
                                                                                                    200
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013               US$9,375 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)

 70
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex                                         US$2,000 mn
 60                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                        US$25,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu equ. production                   US$25,000
 50
                                                                                                    -200                                                                                            Project type                                    Greenfield
 40                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                                Construction
                                                                                                    -400                                                                                            Ore reserves / resources                           642 mt
 30
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Copper grade                                     0.35% Cu
 20                                                                                                 -600                                                                                            Contained copper                                  2,246 kt
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Commissioning                                        2015
 10
                                                                                                    -800                                                                                            Peak copper production                             80 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                           2018E

                                                                                                                                                   2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




   0                                                                                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                             80 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                           24

                                                                                                          Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                US$3,858 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                             US$3,858 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                        62
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GS Copper 60




Exhibit 64: Aynak


                     Aynak                                     Afghanistan                                                                             320 ktpa                                            US$5,616 mn                               6% IRR

  The Aynak mine is located in the north of Logar Province c.35km southeast of Kabul, in the middle-east of
  Afghanistan. The mine was first discovered in the early 1970s. The ownership of the mine is shared between China                                                                                                          Jiangxi,
  Metallurgical Group Corp (75%) and Jiangxi (25% but will receive 50% of the production). The group officially                                                                                                              25.0%
  signed an agreement on May 25, 2008 with the Afghan Government to develop the deposit. Phase I of the project is
  expected to deliver an operation which will produce an average of 320ktpa of copper. The project has received
  approval and pre-construction is set to commence in 2013 with pre-strip in 2014 before commercial production                                                                                                                           China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Metallurgic
  beings in 2016. We believe these targets will be challenging to meet given the location of the project, with insurgent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        al Group
  attacks remaining a big risk. Latest reserve estimates are 350mt of ore containing a copper grade of 1.2%. Total                                                                                                                       Corp.,
  capex for the project was last guided at US$4.4bn, but we believe this figure may be subject to significant cost                                                                                                                       75.0%
  inflation.



Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
350                                                                                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                   6%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                        -US$1,274

300                                                                                                                                                                                                  NPV (2013)                                        -US$1,161
                                                                                                    1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                  US$8,506 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




250                                                                                                   500                                                                                            Capex                                            US$5,616 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                           US$17,549

200
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production                      US$17,549
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project type                                       Greenfield
                                                                                                     -500
150                                                                                                                                                                                                  Project status                                     Permitting
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ore reserves / resources                              350 mt
                                                                                                    -1,000
100                                                                                                                                                                                                  Copper grade                                        1.20% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Contained copper                                     4,200 kt
                                                                                                    -1,500
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                           2017

                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                               320 ktpa
                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012




   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                               320 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                              14

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                   US$3,527 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                                US$3,527 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                            63
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60




Exhibit 65: Bozshakol


                 Bozshakol                                     Kazakhstan                                                                                   75 ktpa                                        US$2,000 mn                        12% IRR



  The Bozshakol deposit is a greenfield project owned by Kazakhmys located in northern Kazakhstan and is the first
  of two large scale growth projects the comapny has recently embarked on developing. The board approved the                                                                                                                      Kazakhmy
  development of the project in August 2011 and the estimated capex is c.US$1.9 bn. Bozshakol is expected to                                                                                                                      s, 100.0%
  produce an average of 75ktpa of copper over the life of the mine with by-products of gold, silver and molybdenum.
  Pre-production mining is scheduled for 2014 and first ore to be processed at the concentrator by 2015.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
160                                                            2500                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                            12%
      Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                           800
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                     US$210
140                                                                                                   600                                                                                            NPV (2013)                                   US$1,122
                                                               2000                                                                                                                                  Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$7,499 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                      400
120
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                      US$2,000 mn
                                                                                                      200
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                     US$26,667
100
                                                               1500
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$20,725
 80                                                                                                                                                                                                  Project type                                 Greenfield
                                                                                                     -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                             Construction
                                                               1000
 60                                                                                                  -400                                                                                            Ore reserves / resources                       1,173 mt
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                  0.35% Cu
 40                                                                                                  -600
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Contained copper                               4,106 kt
                                                               500
                                                                                                     -800                                                                                            Commissioning                                     2015
 20
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                         130 ktpa
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                     Average LOM production                          75 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                      36+

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                  Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                             US$3,748 /t
                 Copper           Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                          US$2,498 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                     64
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60


Exhibit 66: Buenavista SX/EW III


      Buenavista SX/EW III                                            Mexico                                                                          120 ktpa                                                 US$500 mn                       38% IRR
  The Buenavista deposit is located 40km south of the Arizona, US and Mexican border. Southern Copper
  Corporation has 100% ownership of the asset and is in the process of implementing a growth programme for the
  mine's concentrator and SX/EW capacity. The company has decided to bring forward the ramp-up plans for the
  SX/EW project owing to the delay to its Tia Maria project, allowing it to divert the already purchased equipment to
  Buenavista. The company has stated the diversion of equipment has brought forward the project by 18 months as
  “delivery of such new equipment would have taken at least that long”. The project is known as the SX/EW III plant                                                                                                                 Southern
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Copper,
  and construction started in late 2011. The use of Tia Maria's equipment will allow the company to increase                                                                                                                        100.0%
  expanded capacity from 88ktpa of copper to 120ktpa and is due to begin production in 1H14 with guided capex of
  US$444 mn, of which US$171 mn had been spent by end 1Q13. Owing to the company granting a collective
  bargaining agreement for the Buenavista Union, the likelihood of industrial action causing delays during the
  programme has greatly diminished. Project construction was 48.5% complete in 1Q13 and plant equipment from
  Tia Maria has been installed in Mexico.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                  Economics summary
140                                                                                                                                                                                                    Internal rate of return                          38%
      Cu (kt)                                                                                       500
                                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                 US$1,424

120                                                                                                 400                                                                                                NPV (2013)                                 US$1,650
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013          US$5,129 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


                                                                                                    300
100                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex                                     US$500 mn

                                                                                                    200
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex / t Cu production                    US$4,167

 80                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$4,167
                                                                                                    100                                                                                                Project type                                Brownfield

 60                                                                                                                                                                                                    Project status                            Construction
                                                                                                      -
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ore reserves / resources                     2,988 mt

 40                                                                                                 -100                                                                                               Copper grade                                0.25% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Contained copper                              7,470 kt
                                                                                                    -200
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                    Commissioning                                    2014

                                                                                                    -300                                                                                               Peak copper production                       120 ktpa
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                                            2014E

                                                                                                                                    2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                               2030E
  0                                                                                                                                                                                                    Average LOM production                       120 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Life of mine                                     38+
                                                                                                           Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow           Gross unit cost                           US$3,748 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Net unit cost (C1)                        US$3,748 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                      65
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        GS Copper 60




Exhibit 67: Buenavista DC


               Buenavista DC                                          Mexico                                                                            190 ktpa                                              US$1,681 mn                       20% IRR

  The Buenavista deposit is located 40km south of the Arizona, US and Mexican border. Southern Copper
  Corporation has 100% ownership of the asset and is in the process of implementing a growth programme for the
  mine's concentrator and SX/EW capacity. The concentrator expansion is expected to increase Buenavista´s
  production capacity from 180kt of copper per year to over 360kt in 2015. Buenavista is composed of one open-pit
  mine with milling capacity of 77ktpd and two SX/EW plants with a combined capacity of 55ktpa. Buenavista’s mine                                                                                                                    Southern
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper,
  has total reserves of 7.1 bn tonnes with an average copper grade of 0.35% and molybdenum grade of 0.005%. The                                                                                                                      100.0%
  Buenavista concentrator expansion should add c.190ktpa of copper capacity in late-2015 with a total guided capex
  of US$1.38 bn. Owing to the company granting a collective bargaining agreement for the Buenavista Union, the
  likelihood of industrial action causing delays during the project is greatly diminished. However, the expansion
  programme does face the risks of usual delays in the construction and development stage.



Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                                  Economics summary
200                                                              3.0                                                                                                                                    Internal rate of return                           20%
      Cu (kt)                                          Mo (kt)                                       1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        NPV (including sunk costs)                  US$1,640
180
                                                                                                      800                                                                                               NPV (2013)                                  US$2,058
                                                                 2.5
160                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$5,767 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                      600
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Capex                                     US$1,681 mn
140
                                                                 2.0                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                     US$8,848
                                                                                                      400
120                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$8,469
                                                                                                      200                                                                                               Project type                                Brownfield
100                                                              1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Project status                            Construction
 80                                                                                                     -
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ore reserves / resources                      7,102 mt
                                                                 1.0
 60                                                                                                   -200                                                                                              Copper grade                                 0.35% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Contained copper                             24,857 kt
 40                                                                                                   -400
                                                                 0.5                                                                                                                                    Commissioning                                    2015
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                     Peak copper production                        190 ktpa
                                                                                                      -600
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                              2014E

                                                                                                                                      2016E

                                                                                                                                              2018E

                                                                                                                                                      2020E

                                                                                                                                                              2022E

                                                                                                                                                                      2024E

                                                                                                                                                                              2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                      2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                                2030E
  0                                                              0.0                                                                                                                                    Average LOM production                        190 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Life of mine                                     36+
                                                                                                             Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow           Gross unit cost                            US$3,527 /t
                     Copper         Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,276 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                       66
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GS Copper 60




Exhibit 68: Canariaco


                 Canariaco                                                  Peru                                                                    127 ktpa                                            US$1,926 mn                       13% IRR


  The Canariaco Norte porphyry copper deposit was discovered in northern Peru in the 1970s and was acquired by
  Candente Copper Corp. (present owners) in 2001. The company recently recieved approval from the local
  community to resume exploration and feasibitility drilling. The company expects water permits to be granted by the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Candente
  National Water Authority shortly and has mobilised drilling contractors in anticitpation. Reports have suggested the                                                                                                          Copper
  feasibility study has shown the deposit could support the operation of a 100-110ktpd throughput rate (up from 95kt                                                                                                             Corp,
  in the PFS owing to the recommendation of a larger SAG mill), producing 127kt of copper pa and for a period                                                                                                                   100.0%
  spanning over 20 years given a measured and indicated resource base of 3.4mt. The company's initial estimated
  capital outlay for the project is US$1.44 bn. However, we feel this is subject to further escalation as the project is
  detailed in the feasibility study in the current cost environment.



Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                             Economics summary
140                                                            1000                                                                                                                               Internal rate of return                           13%
      Cu (kt)                                       Ag (koz)                                        800
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                    NPV (including sunk costs)                    US$277
                                                               900
120                                                                                                 600                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                    US$277
                                                               800                                                                                                                                Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$6,990 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                    400
100                                                                                                                                                                                               Capex                                     US$1,926 mn
                                                               700
                                                                                                    200
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu production                    US$15,163
                                                               600                                                                                                                                Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$14,161
 80
                                                                                                      -                                                                                           Project type                                Greenfield
                                                               500
 60                                                                                                                                                                                               Project status                              Feasibility
                                                               400                                  -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Ore reserves / resources                       752 mt

 40                                                            300                                  -400                                                                                          Copper grade                                 0.45% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Contained copper                              3,386 kt
                                                               200                                  -600
 20                                                                                                                                                                                               Commissioning                                    2017
                                                               100                                                                                                                                Peak copper production                        127 ktpa
                                                                                                    -800
                                                                                                                         2014E

                                                                                                                                 2016E

                                                                                                                                          2018E

                                                                                                                                                  2020E

                                                                                                                                                          2022E

                                                                                                                                                                  2024E

                                                                                                                                                                          2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                  2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                          2030E
                                                                                                           2010

                                                                                                                  2012




  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                        127 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                  Life of mine                                       23

                                                                                                      Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow          Gross unit cost                            US$3,527 /t
                 Copper          Gold         Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,095 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                  67
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                GS Copper 60




Exhibit 69: Caserones


                Caserones                                               Chile                                                                            120 ktpa                                            US$3,308 mn                          10% IRR

The Caserones project is a greenfield deposit situated in Chile and jointly owned by JX Nippon Metals & Mining
(49.5%), Mitsui Mining & Smelting (25.5%), and Mitsui (25%). Since acquiring a mining concession in May 2006 the                                                                                                                    Mitsui,
partnership under the company Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) had been conducting a feasibility study for the                                                                                                                              25.0%
development of the asset. The feasibility study was released in early 2010 and revealed the project to be                                                                                                                                     JX Nippon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Metals &
economically viable, while simultaneously the EIS was approved. Given the approval, PPC decided to launch the                                                                                                                                  Mining,
project into the development phase. The mine is expected to produce 180ktpa of copper in concentrate and 30ktpa of                                                                                                               Mitsui
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                49.5%
refined copper from SX/EW over the first 10 years and average 110ktpa and 10ktpa, respectively over its 28 year life                                                                                                            Mining &
of mine. The total capex for the project is estimated by the owners to be approximately US$3bn, up from a previous                                                                                                              Smelting,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25.5%
estimate of US$2bn, reflecting general inflationary pressures and a stronger Chilean peso. We expect mine
construction to be completed in end 2013 with commercial production from 2014.



Production profile                                                      Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
200                                                               4.0                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                    10%
      Cu (kt)                                           Mo (kt)                                       1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                            -US$341
180                                                                                                     800
                                                                  3.5                                                                                                                                  NPV (2013)                                           US$2,046
160                                                                                                     600                                                                                            Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                    US$8,032 /t
                                                                        Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                  3.0
140
                                                                                                        400                                                                                            Capex                                              US$3,308 mn
                                                                                                        200                                                                                            Capex / t Cu production                             US$27,563
                                                                  2.5
120
                                                                                                          -
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex / t Cu equ. production                        US$25,167
100                                                               2.0                                                                                                                                  Project type                                         Greenfield
                                                                                                       -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Project status                                     Construction
 80                                                                                                    -400
                                                                  1.5                                                                                                                                  Ore reserves / resources                                800 mt
 60                                                                                                    -600
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Copper grade                                          0.44% Cu
                                                                  1.0                                  -800                                                                                            Contained copper                                       3,048 kt
 40
                                                                                                      -1,000                                                                                           Commissioning                                             2014
                                                                  0.5
 20
                                                                                                      -1,200                                                                                           Peak copper production                                 180 ktpa
                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                        2012

                                                                                                                               2014E

                                                                                                                                       2016E

                                                                                                                                               2018E

                                                                                                                                                       2020E

                                                                                                                                                               2022E

                                                                                                                                                                       2024E

                                                                                                                                                                               2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                               2030E
  0                                                               0.0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                                 120 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Life of mine                                                27

                                                                                                              Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                     US$3,417 /t
                   Copper            Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Net unit cost (C1)                                  US$3,028 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                68
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        GS Copper 60


Exhibit 70: Cerro Casale


               Cerro Casale                                           Chile                                                                            110 ktpa                                            US$7,000 mn                          10% IRR

  The Cerro Casale deposit is located in the Maricunga district of Region III in Chile. The ownership of the deposit is
  shared between Barrick Gold (75%) and Kinross (25%). Barrick announced at its 2Q12 results that the project does                                                                                                         Kinross,
  “not currently meet our investment criteria, primarily due to their large initial capital investments, and under our                                                                                                      25.0%
  disciplined capital allocation framework we would not make a decision to construct them at this time”. The company
  is continuing with the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) permitting process. However, with no current plans
  to construct the mine in the near future the company is instead opting to continue with exploration drilling at the site
  and then review options once the drilling is complete in 2H13. Originally production was due to commence in 2015.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Barrick
  The latest reserve estimate (2010) is 1,034Mt of ore with a copper, gold and silver grade of 0.24%, 0.6g/t and                                                                                                                       Gold,
  1.5g/t, respectively. Total capex for the project is to be US$6 bn. We model the project with a later potential start-                                                                                                              75.0%
  date of 2018.



Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
800                                                                                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                              10%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      2,000
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                      -US$461
700                                                                                                 1,500                                                                                            NPV (2013)                                      -US$461
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013             US$10,941 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)

                                                                                                    1,000
600
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                        US$7,000 mn
                                                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                       US$63,636
500
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production                  US$30,911

400                                                                                                                                                                                                  Project type                                   Greenfield
                                                                                                     -500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                                 Permitting
300                                                                                                 -1,000                                                                                           Ore reserves / resources                         1,034 mt
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                    0.24% Cu
                                                                                                    -1,500
200                                                                                                                                                                                                  Contained copper                                 2,482 kt
                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                           Commissioning                                       2018
100
                                                                                                    -2,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                           110 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                           110 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                          19

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                               US$3,638 /t
                        Copper          Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                           -US$2,611 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                        69
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                GS Copper 60




Exhibit 71: Cerro Verde


                Cerro Verde                                                    Peru                                                                      272 ktpa                                            US$5,000 mn                         14% IRR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Other,
  The Cerro Verde mine is an open pit copper mine situated in Peru. The ownership of SMCV is shared between                                                                                                                         6.1%
  Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (53.6%), SMM Cerro Verde Netherlands B.V. (21%), Compania de Minas
  Buenaventura S.A.A. (19.3%), and other shareholders accounting for the remaining 6.1%. The expansion plan for                                                                                                            Minas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Buenavent
  the mine could triple its annual copper capacity, targeting an increase in concentrator throughput from 120ktpd to                                                                                                     ura, 19.3%
  360ktpd. The EIS for the US$4.4 bn expansion was approved in 2012 and initial construction activities commenced                                                                                                                            Freeport ,
  in early 2013 with c.US$0.6 bn spent by May 2013. The expansion will add c.272ktpa of copper and c.7ktpa of                                                                                                                                 53.6%
  molybdenum to SMCV’s production capacity, and will drive a c.85% increase in its water requirements, which is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sumitomo,
  expected to be achieved from a new wastewater treatment plant. Management expects no opposition, particularly                                                                                                              21.0%
  as it will use treated sewage for its water needs. The feasibility study was concluded in 2011 and SMCV filed an
  ESIA in November 2011.



Production profile                                                       Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
300                                                                8.0                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                                    14%
      Cu (kt)                                            Mo (kt)                                       2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                           US$1,252
                                                                   7.0                                 1,500                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                           US$1,838
250
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                    US$6,965 /t
                                                                         Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                   6.0                                 1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex                                              US$5,000 mn
200                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                             US$18,382
                                                                   5.0                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex / t Cu equ. production                        US$16,958
                                                                                                           -                                                                                           Project type                                         Brownfield
150                                                                4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Project status                                     Construction
                                                                                                        -500
                                                                   3.0                                                                                                                                 Ore reserves / resources                               4,194 mt
100
                                                                                                       -1,000                                                                                          Copper grade                                          0.37% Cu
                                                                   2.0                                                                                                                                 Contained copper                                      15,518 kt
                                                                                                       -1,500
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                    Commissioning                                             2016
                                                                   1.0
                                                                                                       -2,000                                                                                          Peak copper production                                 272 ktpa
                                                                                                                              2014E

                                                                                                                                      2016E

                                                                                                                                               2018E

                                                                                                                                                       2020E

                                                                                                                                                               2022E

                                                                                                                                                                       2024E

                                                                                                                                                                               2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                               2030E
                                                                                                                2010

                                                                                                                       2012




  0                                                                0.0                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                                 272 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Life of mine                                                33

                                                                                                           Operating cash flow                Total annual capex               Net cash flow           Gross unit cost                                     US$3,086 /t
                   Copper             Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Net unit cost (C1)                                  US$2,587 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                70
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60


Exhibit 72: Chuquicamata U/G


       Chuquicamata U/G                                                Chile                                                                            366 ktpa                                            US$5,569 mn                       15% IRR



  The Chuquicamata mine is located in Chile and is wholly owned by Codelco. The development of the underground
  mine is expected to deliver an operation which will produce an average annual output of 366kt of copper over a
  c.30+ year life of the mine. The feasibility study for the project was completed in 4Q12, three years after it                                                                                                                   Codelco,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   100.0%
  commenced. Final board approval is scheduled for 4Q13 (board previously approved US$857 mn for pre-
  development works). Production is expected to commence in 2018. Reserve estimates for the deposit are 1,700Mt
  of ore with a copper grade of 0.7%. Codelco expects capex for the project to be US$4.2 bn.




Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
400                                                             20.0                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                           15%
      Cu (kt)                                         Mo (kt)                                        2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                  US$1,958
                                                                18.0
350                                                                                                                                                                                                   NPV (2013)                                  US$1,958
                                                                                                     1,500
                                                                16.0                                                                                                                                  Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$6,447 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


300                                                                                                  1,000
                                                                14.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capex                                     US$5,569 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capex / t Cu production                    US$15,217
250                                                                                                    500
                                                                12.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$15,217
                                                                                                         -                                                                                            Project type                                Brownfield
200                                                             10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Project status                              Feasibility
                                                                8.0                                   -500
150                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ore reserves / resources                      1,700 mt
                                                                6.0                                  -1,000                                                                                           Copper grade                                 0.70% Cu
100
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Contained copper                             11,900 kt
                                                                4.0
                                                                                                     -1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Commissioning                                    2018
 50
                                                                2.0
                                                                                                     -2,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                        366 ktpa
                                                                                                                2010

                                                                                                                       2012

                                                                                                                              2014E

                                                                                                                                      2016E

                                                                                                                                              2018E

                                                                                                                                                      2020E

                                                                                                                                                              2022E

                                                                                                                                                                      2024E

                                                                                                                                                                              2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                      2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                              2030E
  0                                                             0.0                                                                                                                                   Average LOM production                        366 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Life of mine                                     33+

                                                                                                             Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                            US$3,968 /t
                   Copper            Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,037 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                     71
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GS Copper 60


Exhibit 73: Cobre Panama


               Cobre Panama                                           Panama                                                                           266 ktpa                                            US$5,500 mn                            14% IRR
  Cobre Panama is a large open pit copper development located 120km west of Panama City. The concession
  consists of four zones totalling 13,600 hectares. The mine is 80% owned byFirst Quantum following the acquisition                                                                                                           Korea
  of Inmet Mining in 1H13, with the remaining 20% owned by Korea Panama Mining Corporation (KPMC). The project                                                                                                               Panama
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mining
  received EIA approval on December 28, 2011, which was a pre-condition for KPMC to exercise its option to acquire                                                                                                            Corp,
  20%. Earlier this year Inmet announced it is looking to sell down another 40% of the asset in order to fund the                                                                                                             20.0%
  capex. However, in a possible sign to the market that the company is in favour of maintaining its 80% holding, it
  successfully raised US$1.5 bn of debt in May. The capex estimate for the mine is US$6.18 bn (up from US$4.32
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         First
  bn), including the cost for a coal-fired power plant. The US82c/lb estimate of C1 cost provided by the feasibility                                                                                                                   Quantum,
  studies implies a gross cash cost of c.US120c/lb using provided price assumptions. During May 2012, Inmet                                                                                                                             80.0%
  announced the completion of basic engineering for Cobre Panama, the launch of a financing plan to fully fund its
  80% share of the related development costs and issued Full Notice to Proceed (FNTP) to start construction of the
  project. First Quantum is undertaking a detailed review of the project with the intention of reducing previously
  announced capex and opex estimates while maintaining or advancing timing. We expect further updates in 2H13
  but for the time being model a 2017 start and US$5.5bn capex.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
350                                                            1800                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                14%
      Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                          2,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                       US$1,631
                                                               1600
300                                                                                                  2,000                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                       US$2,236

                                                               1400                                                                                                                                  Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                US$6,783 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                     1,500
250                                                                                                                                                                                                  Capex                                          US$5,500 mn
                                                               1200                                  1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                         US$20,677
200                                                                                                    500                                                                                           Capex / t Cu equ. production                    US$18,730
                                                               1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project type                                     Greenfield
                                                                                                         -
150                                                            800                                                                                                                                   Project status                                   Feasibility
                                                                                                      -500                                                                                           Ore reserves / resources                           2,319 mt
                                                               600
100                                                                                                                                                                                                  Copper grade                                      0.40% Cu
                                                                                                     -1,000
                                                               400                                                                                                                                   Contained copper                                   9,276 kt
                                                                                                     -1,500                                                                                          Commissioning                                         2017
 50
                                                               200
                                                                                                     -2,000                                                                                          Peak copper production                             298 ktpa
                                                                                                                            2014E

                                                                                                                                    2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
                                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                                     2012




  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                     Average LOM production                             266 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                            32

                                                                                                         Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow          Gross unit cost                                 US$2,866 /t
                 Copper           Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                              US$2,251 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                          72
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GS Copper 60


Exhibit 74: Collahuasi GL4


           Collahuasi GL4                                             Chile                                                                            345 ktpa                                            US$5,105 mn                           11% IRR

  The Collahuasi mine is located on the Andean plateau in northern Chile. The ownership of the mine is shared                                                                                                                     Mitsui,
  between Glencore Xstrata (44%), Anglo American (44%) and a group of Japanese companies headed by Mitsui &                                                                                                                       12.0%
  Co. The group of owners have undertaken a prefeasibility study into phase three of the expansion project which
  involves the construction of one, or possibly two, grinding lines. The introduction of these grinds would increase the                                                                                                                    Glencore
  concentrator plant capacity from 160ktpd to either 270ktpd or 380ktpd, taking total copper production at the mine to                                                                                                                      Xstrata,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             44.0%
  1mtpa. The project is currently in the pre-feasibility stage. However we expect that it be deprioritised as the
  company resolves operating challenges at the underlying Collahuasi mine. The company's latest reserve estimate                                                                                                            Anglo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           American,
  (2010) is 2,866Mt of ore with a copper grade of 0.72% and an expected mine life of +50 years. Estimated total                                                                                                             44.0%
  capex for the project is US$4-6 bn depending on whether the owners decide on one or two 110ktpd lines, we have
  modelled one additional line and account for additional expected capex inflation. We model the single additional line
  scenario with a start date of 2H17 until further guidance is provided by the project owners.


Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
350                                                                                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                    11%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                             US$133

300                                                                                                                                                                                                  NPV (2013)                                             US$133
                                                                                                    1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                   US$7,497 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



250                                                                                                   500                                                                                            Capex                                             US$5,105 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                            US$14,797

200
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production                       US$14,797
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project type                                         Brownfield
                                                                                                     -500
150                                                                                                                                                                                                  Project status                                    Pre-feasibility
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ore reserves / resources                               2,866 mt
                                                                                                    -1,000
100                                                                                                                                                                                                  Copper grade                                          0.72% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Contained copper                                      20,635 kt
                                                                                                    -1,500
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                              2017

                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                                 345 ktpa
                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012




   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                                 345 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                               34+

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                    US$3,638 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                                 US$3,638 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                              73
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GS Copper 60


Exhibit 75: Constancia


                  Constancia                                                Peru                                                                             85 ktpa                                        US$1,704 mn                        11% IRR


  The Constancia mine is located in southern Peru and is wholly owned by Hudbay Minerals. Hudbay's board of
  directors approved the development on August 8, 2012 following the completion of the front-end engineering,
  design work and receiving the necessary permits (construction and environmental). The project was also recently
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Hudbay
  given approval by the local communities, thereby allowing the company to begin construction of the mine (expected                                                                                                                Minerals,
  to take 27 months). In regards to funding, Hudbay completed a US$400 mn notes offering in May 2012 and has                                                                                                                       100.0%
  signed an offtake agreement for the precious metals produced by the mine in return for an upfront payment of
  US$750 mn. Commercial production is expected to commence in 1H15 and the mine is expected to average
  85ktpa of copper production over the guided 16 year life of mine (we estimate 17 years), with the first five years at
  118ktpa.



Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                 Economics summary
140                                                                                                                                                                                                   Internal rate of return                            11%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                        800
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                      US$38
                                                                                                      600                                                                                             NPV (2013)                                     US$803
120
                                                                                                      400                                                                                             Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$7,485 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



100                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capex                                      US$1,704 mn
                                                                                                      200
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capex / t Cu production                     US$20,053
                                                                                                        -
 80                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$17,092
                                                                                                     -200                                                                                             Project type                                 Greenfield

 60                                                                                                  -400                                                                                             Project status                             Construction
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Ore reserves / resources                        403 mt
                                                                                                     -600
 40                                                                                                                                                                                                   Copper grade                                  0.35% Cu
                                                                                                     -800
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Contained copper                               1,411 kt

 20
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                            Commissioning                                     2015

                                                                                                    -1,200                                                                                            Peak copper production                         118 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                              2022E

                                                                                                                                                                      2024E

                                                                                                                                                                              2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                      2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                              2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                          85 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Life of mine                                        17

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                             US$3,417 /t
                        Copper          Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Net unit cost (C1)                          US$2,464 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                       74
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60




Exhibit 76: Cuajone


                   Cuajone                                                   Peru                                                                           50 ktpa                                          US$670 mn                       14% IRR



  The Cuajone mine is located in southern Peru, 840km from Lima and is wholly owned by Southern Copper. The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Southern
  operation currently produces c.160ktpa of copper and is undergoing productivity upgrades to raise produciton by a                                                                                                               Copper,
  further 22ktpa. The company is also planning a concentrator upgrade at a later date, raising production capacity by                                                                                                              100.0%
  a further 50ktpa, with planned startup in 2018. The project is still in early stages and is not yet board approved. The
  preliminary capex estimate is US$500 mn.




Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
60                                                               0.8                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                          14%
      Cu (kt)                                          Mo (kt)                                       300
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                   US$139
                                                                 0.7                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                   US$139
                                                                                                     200
50
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013          US$6,675 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                 0.6                                                                                                                                 Capex                                     US$670 mn
                                                                                                     100
40                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capex / t Cu production                   US$13,401
                                                                 0.5
                                                                                                       -                                                                                             Capex / t Cu equ. production              US$12,815

30                                                               0.4                                                                                                                                 Project type                               Brownfield
                                                                                                     -100
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                             Feasibility
                                                                 0.3                                                                                                                                 Ore reserves / resources                     1,183 mt
20                                                                                                   -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                0.51% Cu
                                                                 0.2                                                                                                                                 Contained copper                             6,033 kt
                                                                                                     -300
10                                                                                                                                                                                                   Commissioning                                   2018
                                                                 0.1
                                                                                                     -400                                                                                            Peak copper production                        50 ktpa
                                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                                     2012

                                                                                                                            2014E

                                                                                                                                    2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
 0                                                               0.0                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                        50 ktpa
      2010
      2011
      2012
     2013E
     2014E
     2015E
     2016E
     2017E
     2018E
     2019E
     2020E
     2021E
     2022E
     2023E
     2024E
     2025E
     2026E
     2027E
     2028E
     2029E
     2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                      25

                                                                                                           Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                           US$3,638 /t
                     Copper         Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                        US$3,367 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    75
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60


Exhibit 77: DeGrussa


                  DeGrussa                                        Australia                                                                                77 ktpa                                          US$400 mn                         37% IRR


  The DeGrussa dual open pit / underground mine is located 900km north of Perth in Western Australia and is wholly
  owned by Sandfire Resources. Sandfire commissioned the mine in 3Q12 before reaching commercial production at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sandfire
  the mine in 2Q13. The plant will treat 1.5mtpa of sulphide ore producing on average an annual output of 240-300kt                                                                                                              Resources,
  of copper concentrate (grading 27% copper) over a guided seven year life of mine. The plant will use a standard                                                                                                                 100.0%
  crushing, milling (SAG and ball mills), flotation and concentration methods to convert stockpiled ore into a saleable
  concentrate. The latest resource estimate is 9.6mt of ore with a copper, gold and silver grade of 5.1%, 1.7g/t, and
  5.3g/t, respectively. Total capex for the project is US$400 mn.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
 90                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                            37%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      400
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                     US$465
 80                                                                                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                     US$776
                                                                                                    300
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$5,017 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)

 70
                                                                                                    200                                                                                             Capex                                       US$400 mn
 60                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex / t Cu production                      US$5,195
                                                                                                    100                                                                                             Capex / t Cu equ. production                 US$4,840
 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Project type                                 Greenfield
                                                                                                      -
 40                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                               Producing
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                         10 mt
 30                                                                                                 -100
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Copper grade                                  5.10% Cu
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                 Contained copper                                 489 kt
                                                                                                    -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Commissioning                                     2012
 10
                                                                                                    -300                                                                                            Peak copper production                          77 ktpa
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                           2018E

                                                                                                                                                   2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                          77 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                         7

                                                                                                          Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                             US$3,197 /t
                        Copper          Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                          US$2,652 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                     76
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GS Copper 60


Exhibit 78: El Moro


                   El Moro                                            Chile                                                                           130 ktpa                                            US$4,515 mn                       9% IRR

  The El Moro deposit is a greenfield project located in north-central Chile. Goldcorp bought 70% of the project from
  Glencore Xstrata in 2010 with the help of the co-owner New Gold (30%). The project is designed to be an open pit
  mine with ore processed by conventional methods at a rate of 90ktpd producing copper concentrate and gold over
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        New Gold
  a 17-year mine life. After the EIA was received in March, 2011, it was subsquently suspended in April 2012 after the                                                                                                 Inc., 30.0%
  Chilean Supreme Court deemed the Environmental Permitting Authority had not sufficiently consulted an
  indigenous group within the area. Goldcorp and the Environmental Authority are working collaboratively to have the                                                                                                                 GoldCorp,
  permit renewed. The project has received approval from Goldcorp's Board. If the EIA is renewed the JV will embark                                                                                                                   70.0%
  on securing a reliable source of water supply through the construction of a desalination plant. The plant will provide
  640L per second of treated water through a pipeline measuring 190km to the mine site, 4,000m above sea level.
  The latest capex guidance for the project is US$3.9 bn. However, given the length of time to production and the
  extensive construction planned we add further capital escalation when valuing the project.


Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
350                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                               9%
      Cu (kt)                                                                                       1,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                      -US$363

300                                                                                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                      -US$137
                                                                                                    1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013              US$8,794 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



250                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex                                        US$4,515 mn
                                                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                       US$34,729

200                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex / t Cu equ. production                  US$25,508
                                                                                                        -                                                                                           Project type                                   Greenfield

150                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                                 Permitting
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                           Ore reserves / resources                          450 mt

100                                                                                                                                                                                                 Copper grade                                    0.52% Cu
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                          Contained copper                                 2,337 kt

 50                                                                                                                                                                                                 Commissioning                                       2017

                                                                                                    -1,500                                                                                          Peak copper production                           160 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




  0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                           130 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                          15

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                               US$2,976 /t
                      Copper               Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                              US$804 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                       77
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60


Exhibit 79: El Pachon


                 El Pachon                                       Argentina                                                                             280 ktpa                                            US$4,984 mn                       13% IRR
  Glencore Xstrata acquired 100% of the El Pachón asset as part of its Falconbridge acquisition in 2006. The mine is
  situated in west Argentina, less than 5km from the Chilean border. The current programme is focused on
  completing the environmental and social impact assessment and progressing the feasibility study. Once complete
  the project team will present the EIA to the relevant authorities in Argentina and Chile (given the copper will be
  shipped from Chile as the project falls under the Mining Integration Treaty signed in 1997 by Argentina and Chile).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Glencore
  The environmental requirements for the project have recently been made more stringent with the passing of                                                                                                                       Xstrata,
  legislation which requires miners to perform an inventory of glacial ice before contructing (the mine site apparently                                                                                                           100.0%
  contains over 200 glaciers). Glencore Xstrata expects total capital expenditure to reach US$4.1 bn for the
  development of the mine. A spokesman for Glencore Xstrata Copper said the company has worked in full
  compliance with all applicable regulations to update previous feasibility studies, and is currently working with
  international experts and institutions to complete the Environmental Impact Assessment. The company is guiding to
  total production of 400ktpa of copper for the first five years of operations, along with silver and molybdenum by-
  products. Following the completion of the Glencore Xstrata merger we believe that large greenfield projects such as
  El Pachon will be deprioritised. As such we see elevated risk of delays to previous plans and a potential change in
  ownership.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
450                                                               8                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                           13%
      Cu (kt)                                                                                       2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                    US$655
400                                                               7                                 1,500                                                                                            NPV (2013)                                    US$655

350                                                                                                                                                                                                  Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$7,029 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                  6                                 1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                     US$4,984 mn
300                                                                                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu production                    US$17,798
                                                                  5                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$17,798
250
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Project type                                Greenfield
                                                                  4
200                                                                                                                                                                                                  Project status                              Feasibility
                                                                                                     -500
                                                                  3                                                                                                                                  Ore reserves / resources                     1,580 mt
150
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                           Copper grade                                 0.55% Cu
                                                                  2
100                                                                                                                                                                                                  Contained copper                              8,690 kt
                                                                                                    -1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commissioning                                    2017
 50                                                               1
                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                        400 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
  0                                                               0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                        280 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                       27

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                            US$3,527 /t
                Copper          Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,025 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                     78
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60


Exhibit 80: Encuentro Oxides


        Encuentro Oxides                                              Chile                                                                               50 ktpa                                          US$695 mn                         6% IRR
  Antofagasta has a portfolio of growth projects, which could provide significant potential for growth over the coming
  years, and the group’s primary focus for exploration in Chile remains the Centinella District. In addition to the
  recently commissioned Esperanza mine, this includes the Esperanza Sur and Encuentro deposits. Given the depth
  of the Encuentro deposit, there is significant pre-stripping required (c.600mn tonnes), which could take several
  years to complete. However, this includes c.150mn tonnes of oxide material that can potentially be processed at the
  El Tesoro SX/EW plant from 2016, with first production from the sulphide deposit potentially from 2021. That being
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Antofagast
  the case, management has decided to exclude the sulphide project from the ongoing feasibility study and to focus                                                                                                              a, 100.0%
  on the Esperanza Sur and Encuentro Oxides projects. The company is currently planning to have crushing and
  heap-leach facilities at the Encuentro mine site, with the leach solution sent to the El Tesoro plant for processing via
  pipeline. Potential production from the Encuentro Oxides project is c.50ktpa of copper for a period of eight years
  (we estimate up to nine years reflecting our assumption of a slower ramp-up) using the existing El Tessoro SX/EW
  plant. Management has preliminarily guided to capex of c.US$0.6 bn. Environmental permitting for the project has
  been submitted for review in December 2012.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                              Economics summary
 60                                                                                                                                                                                                Internal rate of return                             6%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      300
                                                                                                                                                                                                   NPV (including sunk costs)                    -US$101
                                                                                                                                                                                                   NPV (2013)                                    -US$101
                                                                                                    200
 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$7,777 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



                                                                                                    100                                                                                            Capex                                       US$695 mn
 40                                                                                                                                                                                                Capex / t Cu production                     US$13,892
                                                                                                      -                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$13,892

 30                                                                                                                                                                                                Project type                                 Greenfield
                                                                                                    -100
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Project status                               Feasibility
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ore reserves / resources                        196 mt
 20                                                                                                 -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Copper grade                                 0.42% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Contained copper                                 823 kt
                                                                                                    -300
 10                                                                                                                                                                                                Commissioning                                     2016

                                                                                                    -400                                                                                           Peak copper production                          50 ktpa
                                                                                                           2010

                                                                                                                  2012

                                                                                                                         2014E

                                                                                                                                 2016E

                                                                                                                                          2018E

                                                                                                                                                  2020E

                                                                                                                                                           2022E

                                                                                                                                                                   2024E

                                                                                                                                                                           2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                   2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                           2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                               Average LOM production                          50 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Life of mine                                         9

                                                                                                      Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                  Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                             US$3,527 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Net unit cost (C1)                          US$3,527 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    79
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GS Copper 60


Exhibit 81: Encuentro Sulphides


       Encuentro Sulphides                                            Chile                                                                            150 ktpa                                            US$4,500 mn                         11% IRR

   Antofagasta has a portfolio of growth projects, which could provide significant potential for growth over the coming
   years, and the group’s primary focus for exploration in Chile remains the Centinella District. In addition to the
   recently commissioned Esperanza mine, this includes the Esperanza Sur and Encuentro deposits. Given the depth
   of the Encuentro deposit, there is significant pre-stripping required (c.600mt), which could potentially take several
   years to complete. However, this includes c.150mt of oxide material that can potentially be processed at the El                                                                                                                Antofagast
   Tesoro SX/EW plant from 2016, with first production from the sulphide deposit from 2021. That being the case,                                                                                                                  a, 100.0%
   management has desided to exclude the sulphide project from the ongoing feasibility study and to focus on the
   Esperanza Sur and Encuentro Oxides projects. Potential production from the Encuentro Sulphides project is c.140-
   160ktpa of copper and 160-180koz of gold. Management has preliminarily guided for the Encuentro Sulphides
   project capex to be c.US$3.5 bn on a stand-alone basis in current dollars.



 Production profile                                                   Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
 180                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                              11%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      1,500
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                        US$73
 160                                                                                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                        US$73
                                                                                                    1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013             US$7,959 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)

 140
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                       US$4,500 mn
 120                                                                                                  500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                      US$30,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu equ. production                 US$23,724
 100
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Project type                                   Brownfield
  80                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                              Pre-feasibility
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                            Ore reserves / resources                           943 mt
  60
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                    0.43% Cu
  40                                                                                                -1,000                                                                                           Contained copper                                  4,055 kt
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commissioning                                        2021
  20
                                                                                                    -1,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                           150 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                           150 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                           28

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                              US$3,858 /t
                         Copper         Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                           US$2,333 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                      80
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GS Copper 60




Exhibit 82: Escondida OGP1


          Escondida OGP1                                              Chile                                                                            250 ktpa                                            US$4,399 mn                            12% IRR


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jeco,
  The Escondida mine is located in the Atacama desert in northern Chile. The ownership of the mine is shared                                                                                                                      12.5%
  between BHP Billiton (57.5%), Rio Tinto (30%) and Jeco (12.5%). The OGP 1 project, which was approved in the
  March 2012 quarter, involves the construction of a new concentrator with 152kt per day processing capacity (net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          BHP,
  gain of 50ktpd as it will replace the Los Colorados concentrator). The project is designed to take the mine’s total                                                                                                                     57.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rio Tinto,
  annual copper production to 1.3mt once fully ramped up. The most recent update by BHP states the project is 13%                                                                                                    30.0%
  complete and commissioning of the project is planned for 2015. The latest resource estimate (2011) is 18,923Mt of
  ore with a copper grade of 0.55%. Total guided capex for the project is US$3.85 bn.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
300                                                                                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                12%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                         US$623
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (2013)                                       US$1,702
250                                                                                                 1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                US$7,343 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                          US$4,399 mn
200                                                                                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                         US$17,596
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu equ. production                    US$17,596
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Project type                                     Brownfield
150
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                                 Construction
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                            Ore reserves / resources                         18,923 mt
100
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                      0.55% Cu
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                           Contained copper                                 104,077 kt
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                         2015

                                                                                                    -1,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                             250 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                             250 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                          36+

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                 US$3,086 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                              US$3,086 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                         81
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60


Exhibit 83: Esperanza Sur


               Esperanza Sur                                          Chile                                                                            140 ktpa                                            US$4,000 mn                            11% IRR
   The Esperanza Sur project (formerly Telegrapho), located along the west coast of Chile, is part of Antofagasta’s
   existing Esperanza property within the Centinella district and could be used to extend the life of the existing mine,
   increase the size of the operation or proceed as a stand-alone operation. The ownership structure is in line with the
   Esperanza property with Antofagasta accounting for 70% while Marubeni owns the remaining 30%. The total                                                                                                               Marubeni,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          30.0%
   mineral resource at the Esperanza Sur deposit is 2,263mt at an average copper grade of 0.36%. Antofagasta
   completed pre-feasibility work in the Centinela district and is currently undertaking a feasibility study for the potential
   expansion of copper production in the district using the Esperanza Sur and Encuentro deposits. The feasibility study
   is expected to be completed in early 2014. Metallurgical testing performed so far indicates that untreated seawater                                                                                                               Antofagast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      a, 70.0%
   can be used to process the ore. The Esperanza Sur project can potentially produce c.140ktpa of copper and
   c.160kozpa of gold over the first 10 years of operation, with a start date in 2017. Management has preliminarily
   guided for the Esperanza Sur project capex to be c.US$3.5 bn with potential synergies from the existing Esperanza
   operations.

 Production profile                                                   Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
 180                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                                11%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      1,000
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                          US$32
 160                                                                                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                          US$32
                                                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                US$8,258 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)

 140
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                          US$4,000 mn
 120                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                         US$28,571
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu equ. production                    US$22,665
 100
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                            Project type                                     Brownfield
  80                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                                   Feasibility
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                           Ore reserves / resources                          1,307 mt
  60
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                      0.39% Cu
  40                                                                                                -1,500                                                                                           Contained copper                                   5,097 kt
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commissioning                                         2017
  20
                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                             140 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                             140 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                          34+

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                 US$3,858 /t
                         Copper         Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                              US$2,286 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                       82
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              GS Copper 60


Exhibit 84: Frieda River


                  Frieda River                                                   PNG                                                                      190 ktpa                                              US$6,900 mn                             8% IRR

   The Frieda River mine is a greenfield copper project located in north-west Papua New Guinea. In January 2007,
   Xstrata assumed management of the deposit with an 82% stake following its acquisition of Falconbridge in 2006.                                                                                                                Highlands
   The remainder is held by Highlands Pacific Limited (HPL). The Frieda River Project pre-feasibility study, delivered                                                                                                            Pacific,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  18.2%
   in October 2010, outlined a potential open pit mining operation with annual average copper production of 190ktpa
   and 280koz of gold, with a life of mine over 20 years for capital expenditure of US$5.3 bn, inclusive of a hydro
   power plant. The feasibility study was completed at end 2012, in line with the ownership agreement, in which the                                                                                                                          Glencore
   capex estimate was raised slightly to US$5.6 bn and cited a proposed switch from hydro-electric power to gas if the                                                                                                                       Xstrata,
   project proceeds. The expected production was also revised to 304ktpa of copper on the first five years and                                                                                                                                81.8%
   204ktpa over the life of mine. Following the completion of the Glencore Xstrata merger we believe that large
   greenfield projects such as Frieda River will be deprioritised. As such we see elevated risk of delays to previous
   plans and a potential change in ownership.


 Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                                   Economics summary
 500                                                             1200                                                                                                                                     Internal rate of return                                 8%
       Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                          2,000
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                           NPV (including sunk costs)                      -US$1,104
 450
                                                                                                      1,500                                                                                               NPV (2013)                                      -US$1,104
                                                                 1000
 400                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                US$9,365 /t
                                                                        Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)

                                                                                                      1,000

 350
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Capex                                          US$6,900 mn
                                                                 800                                    500
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Capex / t Cu production                         US$36,316
 300
                                                                                                          -                                                                                               Capex / t Cu equ. production                    US$29,290
 250                                                             600                                                                                                                                      Project type                                     Greenfield
                                                                                                       -500
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Project status                                   Feasibility
 200
                                                                                                      -1,000                                                                                              Ore reserves / resources                            900 mt
                                                                 400
 150                                                                                                                                                                                                      Copper grade                                      0.45% Cu
                                                                                                      -1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Contained copper                                   4,050 kt
 100
                                                                 200                                  -2,000                                                                                              Commissioning                                         2018
  50
                                                                                                      -2,500                                                                                              Peak copper production                             262 ktpa
                                                                                                                                2014E

                                                                                                                                        2016E

                                                                                                                                                2018E

                                                                                                                                                        2020E

                                                                                                                                                                2022E

                                                                                                                                                                        2024E

                                                                                                                                                                                2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                        2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2030E
                                                                                                                2010

                                                                                                                        2012




   0                                                             0                                                                                                                                        Average LOM production                             190 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Life of mine                                            21
                                                                                                               Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow           Gross unit cost                                 US$3,638 /t
                   Copper          Gold           Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Net unit cost (C1)                              US$2,204 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                            83
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60


Exhibit 85: Galeno


                    Galeno                                                  Peru                                                                     200 ktpa                                            US$4,740 mn                        9% IRR


  The Galeno deposit is a greenfield copper project located in the Yanacocha mining district of northern Peru, with
  gold as a by-product. Following the purchase of Northern Peru Copper (NPC) by China’s Minmetals the ownership
  of the mine is shared between Jiangxi Copper (40%) and Minmetals (60%). Following the acquisition, Minmetals                                                                                                        Jiangxi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Copper,
  pledged to invest US$2.5 bn in the project. The capex estimate has since been revised upwards to US$3.8-3.9 bn                                                                                                       40.0%            China
  and the mine is now scheduled to start production in 2017 after an initial feasibility study was discarded which has                                                                                                                Minmetals,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        60.0%
  resulted in forecast production being pushed back two years. Given the JV partners' ability to commit capital the
  main risk for the project in its current state is delays in obtaining the necessary permits. There is limited new
  information relating to this project and we make no changes to assumptions with this update.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                              Economics summary
250                                                            2500                                                                                                                                Internal rate of return                                  9%
      Cu (kt)                                       Ag (koz)                                        1,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                         -US$375
                                                                                                                                                                                                   NPV (2013)                                         -US$375
                                                                                                    1,000
200                                                            2000                                                                                                                                Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                 US$8,277 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



                                                                                                      500                                                                                          Capex                                           US$4,740 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capex / t Cu production                          US$23,702
150                                                            1500                                     -                                                                                          Capex / t Cu equ. production                     US$19,736
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Project type                                      Greenfield
                                                                                                     -500
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Project status                                    Feasibility
100                                                            1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ore reserves / resources                             661 mt
                                                                                                    -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Copper grade                                       0.50% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Contained copper                                    3,305 kt
 50                                                            500                                  -1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Commissioning                                          2017

                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                         Peak copper production                              200 ktpa
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                           2018E

                                                                                                                                                   2020E

                                                                                                                                                           2022E

                                                                                                                                                                   2024E

                                                                                                                                                                           2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                   2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                           2030E
  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                   Average LOM production                              200 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Life of mine                                             16

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                  US$3,307 /t
                 Copper          Gold         Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Net unit cost (C1)                               US$2,161 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                         84
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60




Exhibit 86: Grasberg DMLZ


           Grasberg DMLZ                                         Indonesia                                                                            235 ktpa                                            US$2,750 mn                         18% IRR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Gov of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Indonesia,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                9.4%
  The Grasberg mine is located in the highlands of the Sudirman Mountain Range in the province of Papua,
  Indonesia (western half of the island of New Guinea). The mine is owned by Freeport (90.64%) and the
  Government of Indonesia (9.36%). Production from the open pit is set to come to an end in 2016. The company
  plans to develop the Deep Mill Level Zone (DMLZ) in order to counter the decline resulting from the cessation of
  open pit mining. Freeport expects the capital costs of the project to be in the order of US$2.3 bn with production
  due to commence in 2015 and gradually ramping up to full capacity by 2021. Current reserves total 517 mn tonnes                                                                                                                 Freeport,
  at a grade of 0.84% copper and 0.7 g/t gold. Freeport expects the project to process 80ktpd of ore at full capacity,                                                                                                             90.6%
  producing c.235 ktpa of copper. According to Freeport the project is advancing on schedule.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
350                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                             18%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      1,400
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                    US$1,482
                                                                                                    1,200                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                    US$2,165
300
                                                                                                    1,000                                                                                           Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013             US$5,945 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




250                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex                                       US$2,750 mn
                                                                                                     800
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                      US$11,702
                                                                                                     600
200                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex / t Cu equ. production                  US$9,752
                                                                                                     400                                                                                            Project type                                  Brownfield

150                                                                                                  200                                                                                            Project status                              Construction
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                         517 mt
                                                                                                       -
100                                                                                                                                                                                                 Copper grade                                   0.84% Cu
                                                                                                     -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                                4,343 kt

 50
                                                                                                     -400                                                                                           Commissioning                                      2015

                                                                                                     -600                                                                                           Peak copper production                          235 ktpa
                                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                                     2012

                                                                                                                            2014E

                                                                                                                                    2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                          235 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                         21

                                                                                                           Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                              US$3,858 /t
                        Copper          Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                           US$2,685 /t


Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                      85
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GS Copper 60




Exhibit 87: Grasberg Block Cave


               Grasberg BC                                       Indonesia                                                                             565 ktpa                                            US$5,348 mn                              18% IRR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Gov of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Indonesia,
  The Grasberg mine is located in the highlands of the Sudirman Mountain Range in the province of Papua,                                                                                                                             9.4%
  Indonesia (western half of the island of New Guinea). The mine is owned by Freeport (90.64%) and the
  Government of Indonesia (9.36%). Production from the open pit is set to come to an end in late 2016 and the
  company plans to transition to the main underground deposit (known as the Block Cave section). Freeport expects
  the capital costs of the project to be in the order of US$4.4 bn with production due to commence in 2017 and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Freeport,
  gradually ramping up to full capacity by 2022. Current reserves total 999 mn tonnes at a grade of 1.01% copper and                                                                                                                     90.6%
  0.78 g/t gold. (c.40% of Freeport’s reserves in Indonesia). Freeport expects the project to process 160ktpd of ore at
  full capacity, producing c.565 ktpa of copper. According to Freeport the project is advancing on schedule.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
700                                                                                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                  18%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      3,500
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                         US$3,427

600
                                                                                                    3,000                                                                                            NPV (2013)                                         US$4,519
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                  US$5,818 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                    2,500
500                                                                                                                                                                                                  Capex                                            US$5,348 mn
                                                                                                    2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                            US$9,466

400                                                                                                 1,500                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production                       US$8,020
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project type                                       Brownfield
                                                                                                    1,000
300                                                                                                                                                                                                  Project status                                   Construction
                                                                                                      500                                                                                            Ore reserves / resources                              999 mt

200                                                                                                                                                                                                  Copper grade                                        1.01% Cu
                                                                                                        -
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Contained copper                                    10,090 kt
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                            Commissioning                                           2017
100
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                               565 ktpa
                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012




   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                               565 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                              20

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                   US$3,748 /t
                        Copper          Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                                US$2,679 /t


Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                            86
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60




Exhibit 88: Haquira


                   Haquira                                                   Peru                                                                        193 ktpa                                              US$3,041 mn                       14% IRR


  First Quantum owns 100% of the Haquira project through its acquisition of Antares Minerals in December 2010 for
  US$450 mn. The Haquira mine benefits from having near-surface secondary copper conducive to SX-EW leaching
  and also a higher grade underlying ore body that can be mineralised using more conventional processing methods.
  Antares previously estimated capex for the project to total US$2.06 bn, however, given the assumption the mine                                                                                                                        First
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Quantum,
  reaches production in c.2018 we feel significant additional capital cost inflation is warranted when valuing the asset.                                                                                                              100.0%
  Exploration activities at Haquira have been put on hold whilst the company concentrates on the community and
  environmental aspects of the project development. Key risks to the project include below average drill results,
  higher capital costs than initially forecast and delays in permitting.




Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                                   Economics summary
250                                                             1800                                                                                                                                     Internal rate of return                           14%
      Cu (kt)                                        Ag (koz)                                        1,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                           NPV (including sunk costs)                    US$436
                                                                1600                                                                                                                                     NPV (2013)                                    US$436
                                                                                                     1,000
200                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$6,785 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                1400
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Capex                                     US$3,041 mn
                                                                1200                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Capex / t Cu production                    US$15,754
150                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$14,237
                                                                1000
                                                                                                         -                                                                                               Project type                                Greenfield
                                                                800                                                                                                                                      Project status                                Scoping
100
                                                                                                      -500                                                                                               Ore reserves / resources                       570 mt
                                                                600
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Copper grade                                 0.65% Cu
                                                                400                                  -1,000                                                                                              Contained copper                              3,705 kt
 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Commissioning                                    2018
                                                                200
                                                                                                     -1,500                                                                                              Peak copper production                        230 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                       2012

                                                                                                                               2014E

                                                                                                                                       2016E

                                                                                                                                               2018E

                                                                                                                                                       2020E

                                                                                                                                                               2022E

                                                                                                                                                                       2024E

                                                                                                                                                                               2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2030E
  0                                                             0                                                                                                                                        Average LOM production                        193 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Life of mine                                       21
                                                                                                              Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow           Gross unit cost                            US$3,638 /t
                  Copper         Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,000 /t


Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                         87
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60




Exhibit 89: Inca de Oro


                  Inca de Oro                                         Chile                                                                                50 ktpa                                          US$902 mn                         13% IRR

  The Inca de Oro mine is located in northern Chile and is owned by PanAust (66%) and Codelco (34%). A pre-
  feasibility study on the deposit demonstrated there was potential for an operation producing an average output of
  50ktpa of copper and 40koz of gold over a +10 year mine life. The latest total resource estimate is 769.7mt of ore
  with a copper and gold grade of 0.36% and 0.1g/t, respectively (total indicated resource of 439mt of ore with 0.36%                                                                                                   Codelco,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         34.0%
  copper and 0.11g/t gold). PanAust and its JV partner announced in mid-2012 that it is unlikely to proceed with the
  development of the mine at a US$3.00 /lb copper price. The feasibility study for the project is based on average
  output of 50ktpa of copper (60ktpa in first five years) and 40koz of gold with toal capex of US$635 mn for mine and                                                                                                              Panaust,
  infrastructure and an additional US$107 mn for pre-stripping. In 1Q13 work continued on an extended feasibility                                                                                                                   66.0%

  study to evaluate the potential for existing oxide and additional sulphide resources to contribute to the project. We
  model the project with an assumed 2016 start given the announced postponement, until further information is
  provided by the owners.


Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
 70                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                            13%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      300
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                     US$113

 60                                                                                                 200                                                                                             NPV (2013)                                     US$113
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$6,997 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                    100
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex                                       US$902 mn

                                                                                                      -
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                     US$18,038

 40                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$16,029
                                                                                                    -100                                                                                            Project type                                 Greenfield

 30                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                               Feasibility
                                                                                                    -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                        259 mt

 20                                                                                                 -300                                                                                            Copper grade                                  0.46% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                               1,191 kt
                                                                                                    -400
 10                                                                                                                                                                                                 Commissioning                                     2016

                                                                                                    -500                                                                                            Peak copper production                          60 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                           2018E

                                                                                                                                                   2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




   0                                                                                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                          50 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                        23

                                                                                                          Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                             US$4,189 /t
                        Copper          Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                          US$3,009 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                     88
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60


Exhibit 90: Kamoa


                    Kamoa                                                       DRC                                                                    197 ktpa                                            US$3,191 mn                           16% IRR
  The Kamoa deposit is located within the Central African copperbelt, approximately 25km west of the town of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     DRC
  Kolwezi. Ivanplats owns 95% of the project (non-dilutable interest of 5% transferred to the DRC government in                                                                                                                   Governme
  2012). Ivanplats has agreed to sell an additional 15% interest to the government on commercial terms to be                                                                                                                       nt, 5.0%
  negotiated. In August 2012 the government granted the mining licences for the project. In January 2013 Ivanplats
  updated the resource announcing an indicated mineral resource of 739mt grading 2.67% copper. The updated
  resource forms the basis of an updated PEA due for completion in 2013. Kamoa will only produce copper, with
  sulphuric acid as a by-product from smelting. The current base case is a 5mtpa mining rate producing 143ktpa of
  copper. However, preliminary work indicates that an initial mine production rate of 7.5mtpa may allow for a more
  efficient use of capital. Expansion scenarios up to 20mtpa are also being investigated. The preliminary capex                                                                                                                     Ivanplats,
  estimate from the company is c.US$2 bn for the base case, with the 7.5mtpa case likely to add c.US$500 mn with                                                                                                                      95.0%
  additional milling capacity being the main component. In our model we assume a 7.5mtpa mine rate, US$3.2 bn
  total capex and 2018 start of produciton. Company management has flagged its intention to secure an equity
  partner to assist in providing project financing.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
250                                                                                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                                16%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                       US$1,334
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (2013)                                       US$1,334
200                                                                                                 1,000                                                                                            Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013               US$6,112 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                         US$3,191 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                        US$16,196
                                                                                                      500
150                                                                                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu equ. production                   US$16,196
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project type                                     Greenfield
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Project status                                Pre-feasibility
100
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ore reserves / resources                             739 mt
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                      2.67% Cu
                                                                                                     -500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Contained copper                                  19,731 kt
 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commissioning                                          2018

                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                           Peak copper production                             197 ktpa
                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012




   0                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average LOM production                             197 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                           33+

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                US$2,756 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                             US$2,756 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                          89
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GS Copper 60


Exhibit 91: Kansanshi Sulphide


       Kansanshi Sulphide                                             Zambia                                                                               65 ktpa                                          US$463 mn                       28% IRR


  The Kansanshi mine is located in Zambia and has a shared ownership structure between First Quantum (80%) and                                                                                                              ZCCM,
  ZCCM (20%). The sulphide expansion project is part of First Quantum’s multi-stage plan for the mine to produce                                                                                                            20.0%
  400kt of copper by 2015. The next step in the project is to commence construction of a new section of the plant
  capable of treating up to 25mtpa of sulphide ore. Annual production from the expansion is expected to commence
  in 2015 and be in the range of 60-70kt of copper. The plant at Kansanshi already processes sulphide ore via a
  standard floatation to produce copper in concentrate. The company has guided to total capex of c.US$400 mn,                                                                                                                      First
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Quantum,
  which we adjust slightly upward to account for inflationary pressure. Board approval has been granted and design                                                                                                                80.0%
  work is progressing as environmental approvals are being pursued.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
 70                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                          28%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      400
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                   US$475

 60                                                                                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                   US$520
                                                                                                    300
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013          US$5,259 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



 50                                                                                                 200                                                                                             Capex                                     US$463 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                    US$7,124

 40
                                                                                                    100                                                                                             Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$7,124
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Project type                               Brownfield
                                                                                                      -
 30                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                             Permitting
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                      140 mt
                                                                                                    -100
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                 Copper grade                                0.78% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                             1,092 kt
                                                                                                    -200
 10                                                                                                                                                                                                 Commissioning                                   2015

                                                                                                    -300                                                                                            Peak copper production                        65 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                           2018E

                                                                                                                                                   2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




   0                                                                                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                        65 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                      15

                                                                                                          Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                           US$3,307 /t
                        Copper          Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                        US$2,983 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                   90
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GS Copper 60


Exhibit 92: Konkola Deep


               Konkola Deep                                           Zambia                                                                           175 ktpa                                            US$1,050 mn                           16% IRR

  The expansion of the Konkola mine (KDMP), 79% owned by Vedanta, is aimed at expanding processing of the
  copper ore from 2mtpa to 7.5mtpa by accessing the deeper and higher grade ore body. This involves the                                                                                                                       ZCCM,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20.6%
  construction of a 1,500m mine shaft (the deepest in Africa) and the sinking of three new ventilation shafts, one de-
  watering shaft and the construction of a new pump chamber. In addition to this the project includes the construction
  of a modern concentrator to handle the increase in ore throughput. The mid shaft loading station was
  commissioned in March 2010 and the bottom shaft loading was completed at end-2012. Mine development at the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Vedanta,
  bottom shaft leel is currently under development with the crusher chamber expected in mid-2013 to support                                                                                                                            79.4%
  Konkola mine volume ramp-up. Vedanta maintains capex guidance for the KDMP project at US$973 mn, having
  previously increased this from US$674 mn owing to weak ground conditions (initial guidance from Vedanta was
  US$400 mn). The risks of the project include delays in ramp-up, lower copper prices and political/regulatory risks.



Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
200                                                                                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                               16%
      Cu (kt)                                                                                         600
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                        US$966
180
                                                                                                      400                                                                                            NPV (2013)                                      US$1,982
160                                                                                                                                                                                                  Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013               US$6,453 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


                                                                                                      200
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                         US$1,050 mn
140
                                                                                                        -
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                         US$6,000
120                                                                                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu equ. production                    US$6,000
                                                                                                     -200                                                                                            Project type                                    Brownfield
100
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                                Construction
 80                                                                                                  -400
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ore reserves / resources                           215 mt
 60                                                                                                  -600                                                                                            Copper grade                                     3.80% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Contained copper                                  8,170 kt
 40                                                                                                  -800
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commissioning                                        2013
                                                                                                                      cumulative capex to 2010
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                  Peak copper production                            175 ktpa
                                                                                                    -1,000
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
  0                                                                                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                            175 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                         38+

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                US$4,079 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                             US$4,079 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                        91
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60


Exhibit 93: Las Bambas


               Las Bambas                                                   Peru                                                                      310 ktpa                                            US$5,733 mn                       11% IRR
  The Las Bambas deposit is situated in Peru and is 100% owned by Glencore Xstrata. In 2004 Xstrata was granted
  a six-year period to complete an exploration and feasibility study on the deposit and following an extensive period of
  work, and a promising feasibility study, the project received board approval in August 2010 with a capital budget of
  US$4.2 bn. In February 2012, the company reported that despite severe cost pressures and incorporation of the
  detailed engineering design, it had contained cost pressures to c.15% of the original capex budget, raising the
  estimate to c.US$5.2 bn. When fully operational the mine is set to produce 400ktpa of copper over the first five                                                                                                               Glencore
  years of operation and averaging c.315ktpa over the life of the mine.The EIA was received in March 2011 with                                                                                                                   Xstrata,
  mass earthworks and general construction starting in June 2012 following receipt of final site construction permits                                                                                                            100.0%
  in May 2012. Subject to project development progressing as planned the company is guiding to commissioning in
  late-2014 with ramp up during 2015. We take a more conservative view accounting for further potential delays with
  commissioning in 2015 and full capacity in 2016. Glencore Xstrata agreed to sell the Las Bambas project upon
  approval by the Chinese regulators for the merger, with the price to be set as the higher of sunk capex to date or
  the valuation by independent parties. We estimate a break-even NPV including sunk costs. Assuming a sale is
  concluded by end-2013, we estimate total capex to date of c.US$4bn would equate to our valuation at that time
  excluding sunk costs.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
450                                                            5000                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                           11%
      Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                         2,000
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                    US$134
400                                                            4500
                                                                                                    1,500                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                  US$2,970
                                                               4000                                                                                                                                 Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$7,575 /t
350
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                    1,000

                                                               3500
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex                                     US$5,733 mn
300                                                                                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                    US$18,494
                                                               3000
                                                                                                        -                                                                                           Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$16,358
250
                                                               2500                                                                                                                                 Project type                                Greenfield
                                                                                                     -500
200                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                            Construction
                                                               2000
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                          Ore reserves / resources                      1,210 mt
150
                                                               1500                                                                                                                                 Copper grade                                 0.66% Cu
                                                                                                    -1,500
100                                                                                                                                                                                                 Contained copper                              7,986 kt
                                                               1000
                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                          Commissioning                                    2015
 50                                                            500
                                                                                                    -2,500                                                                                          Peak copper production                        400 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                    Average LOM production                        310 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                       18

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow          Gross unit cost                            US$3,417 /t
                 Copper           Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                         US$2,682 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    92
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               GS Copper 60


Exhibit 94: Los Bronces


                Los Bronces                                           Chile                                                                             190 ktpa                                               US$2,900 mn                         19% IRR
  The Los Bronces mine is situated in Chile and is currently owned by Anglo American (50.1%), a Codelco/Mitsui JV
  (29.5%) and Mitsubishi (20.4%). The ownership levels were confirmed on August 23, 2012, following a settlement
  agreed between Anglo American and Codelco regarding the latter's option over 49% of the Anglo Sur assets. The                                                                                                                Mitsubishi,
  expansion project, which is expected to increase throughput from 61ktpd to 148ktpd, delivered its first production                                                                                                             20.4%
  on schedule in 4Q11. Anglo expects the project will increase average copper production in the first 10 years by                                                                                                                             Anglo
  around 200ktpa (averaging 278 ktpa over the first three years), plus molybdenum and silver by-products. Although                                                                                                                           American,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              50.1%
  the Los Bronces expansion project has been ramping up and operating according to expectations, the underlying
  asset has been experiencing challenges resulting in the total mine output being lower than initially projected. The                                                                                                          Codelco /
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mitsui,
  expansion contributed 196.1kt of copper in 2012 and we expect full design capacity to be achieved in 2013E. The                                                                                                               29.5%
  project scope includes a new grinding plant, connected to the main site by a 4.4km conveyor belt, together with a
  52km ore slurry pipeline to the existing Cu-Mo flotation plant at Las Tortolas. The life of mine is estimated to be
  over 30 years.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                    Economics summary
300                                                                                                                                                                                                      Internal rate of return                                 19%
      Cu (kt)                                                                                       1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                         NPV (including sunk costs)                        US$2,517
                                                                                                                                                                                                         NPV (2013)                                        US$4,570
250                                                                                                 1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                 US$5,983 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



                                                                                                                                                                                                         Capex                                           US$2,900 mn
200                                                                                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Capex / t Cu production                          US$15,263
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Capex / t Cu equ. production                     US$15,263
                                                                                                        -                                                                                                Project type                                      Brownfield
150
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Project status                                    Producing
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                                Ore reserves / resources                            1,080 mt
100
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Copper grade                                       0.88% Cu
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                               Contained copper                                    9,501 kt
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                      Commissioning                                          2011

                                                                                                    -1,500                                                                                               Peak copper production                              278 ktpa
                                                                                                                              2014E

                                                                                                                                      2016E

                                                                                                                                              2018E

                                                                                                                                                      2020E

                                                                                                                                                              2022E

                                                                                                                                                                      2024E

                                                                                                                                                                              2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2030E
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012




  0                                                                                                                                                                                                      Average LOM production                              190 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Life of mine                                             34
                                                                                                             Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow           Gross unit cost                                  US$3,197 /t
                                Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Net unit cost (C1)                               US$3,197 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                               93
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GS Copper 60


Exhibit 95: Lubambe (previously Konkola North)


                 Lubambe                                              Zambia                                                                               45 ktpa                                          US$454 mn                      14% IRR


  The Konkola North deposit is situated in the Zambian copper belt. The project to develop the underground mine is a
  joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals (50%) and Vale (50%). The mine was commissioned two months
  ahead of schedule in October 2012 with the concentrator plant coming onilne in December the same year. The                                                                                                           African
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Rainbow      Vale,
  mine is currently ramping up to nameplate capacity. The operation will produce an average annual output of 45kt of                                                                                                  Minerals,    50.0%
  copper which we expect to be reached in 2015. There are currently plans in place to further develop the mine in                                                                                                      50.0%
  order to increase production to 100ktpa. The latest resource estimate (2011) is 57.4Mt of ore with a copper grade of
  2.42%. Total capex for the first phase of the project is US$454mn.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                         14%
       Cu (kt)                                                                                      200
                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPV (including sunk costs)                  US$154
 45
                                                                                                    150                                                                                             NPV (2013)                                  US$533
 40                                                                                                                                                                                                 Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013         US$6,706 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


                                                                                                    100
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex                                    US$454 mn
 35
                                                                                                     50
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                  US$10,089
 30                                                                                                                                                                                                 Capex / t Cu equ. production             US$10,089
                                                                                                      -                                                                                             Project type                              Greenfield
 25
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Project status                            Producing
 20                                                                                                  -50
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                      57 mt
 15                                                                                                 -100                                                                                            Copper grade                               2.42% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                            1,389 kt
 10                                                                                                 -150
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Commissioning                                  2012
   5                                                                                                                                                                                                Peak copper production                       45 ktpa
                                                                                                    -200
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                           2018E

                                                                                                                                                   2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
   0                                                                                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                       45 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                     28

                                                                                                          Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                          US$3,858 /t
                               Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                       US$3,858 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                  94
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GS Copper 60


Exhibit 96: Michiquillay


                 Michiquillay                                               Peru                                                                       222 ktpa                                            US$4,432 mn                        10% IRR


  The Michiquillay mine is located 47km from the city of Cajamarca and is between 3,000m and 3,600m above sea
  level. After submitting a winning bid of US$403 mn in 2007 Anglo American purchased the project from the
  Peruvian Government. The mining project is a porphyry copper deposit with gold and silver content. The latest
  reserves measure states the deposit has a 544Mt ore base with a copper grade cut-off 0.34%. The project is                                                                                                                        Anglo
  expected to commence production in 2019 and produce an average rate of 222ktpa of copper, with the potential to                                                                                                                 American,
  further increase production to 300ktpa. Despite a previous feasibility study being done for 40ktpd Anglo American                                                                                                                100.0%
  has embarked on further drilling and plans for the project to move to the pre-feasibility stage at the completion of
  the drilling and ore body modelling. The concept level study was completed and is under review. The project is
  awaiting board approval.



Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
250                                                            1600                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                            10%
      Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                         1,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                    -US$143
                                                               1400                                                                                                                                  NPV (2013)                                    -US$143
                                                                                                    1,000
200                                                                                                                                                                                                  Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$7,882 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


                                                               1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex                                      US$4,432 mn
                                                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu production                     US$19,966
                                                               1000
150
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$17,740
                                                                                                        -                                                                                            Project type                                 Greenfield
                                                               800
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                                 Scoping
100
                                                               600                                   -500                                                                                            Ore reserves / resources                        544 mt
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper grade                                  0.69% Cu
                                                               400
                                                                                                    -1,000                                                                                           Contained copper                               3,754 kt
 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commissioning                                     2019
                                                               200
                                                                                                    -1,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                         222 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                     Average LOM production                         222 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                        20

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                             US$3,638 /t
                 Copper         Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                          US$2,907 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                      95
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60


Exhibit 97: Ministro Mina Hales


       Ministro Mina Hales                                              Chile                                                                           183 ktpa                                            US$3,255 mn                       9% IRR


  Codelco's Ministro Mina Hales (previously known as Mansa Mina) deposit is set to be developed as an open pit
  operation following pre-stripping of 240mt of soil and rocks (largest in the history of mining). The project received
  board approval in December 2010 and Codelco has since started construction which is expected to take up to 36
  months with production likely to begin in 4Q13. The original timeline has been brought forward following the early
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Codelco,
  development of project works such as earth movement, access roads and on site accommodation. The project also                                                                                                                    100.0%
  involves the construction of a standalone concentrator plant and a roasting plant for the drawdown of arsenic, a gas
  capture plant to produce sulphuric acid and a conveyer belt to transport ore. Project economics would require UG
  expansion to be feasible. Company capex guidance is c.US$3.1 bn (up from the initial forecast of US$1.6 bn). The
  EIA for the project was approved by the Chilean Environment Minister in March 2011.



Production profile                                                      Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
200                                                              4000                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                           9%
       Cu (kt)                                        Ag (koz)                                        1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                  -US$436
180
                                                                 3500                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                 US$1,724
160                                                                                                     500                                                                                           Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013          US$7,859 /t
                                                                        Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


                                                                 3000                                                                                                                                 Capex                                    US$3,255 mn
140
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capex / t Cu production                   US$17,787
                                                                 2500                                     -
120                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capex / t Cu equ. production              US$16,728

100                                                              2000                                                                                                                                 Project type                               Greenfield
                                                                                                       -500                                                                                           Project status                           Construction
 80
                                                                 1500                                                                                                                                 Ore reserves / resources                      289 mt
 60                                                                                                                                                                                                   Copper grade                                0.96% Cu
                                                                 1000                                 -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Contained copper                             2,774 kt
 40
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Commissioning                                   2013
                                                                 500
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                   Peak copper production                       183 ktpa
                                                                                                      -1,500
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                              2018E

                                                                                                                                                      2020E

                                                                                                                                                              2022E

                                                                                                                                                                      2024E

                                                                                                                                                                              2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                      2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                              2030E
   0                                                             0                                                                                                                                    Average LOM production                       183 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Life of mine                                      16

                                                                                                          Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow          Gross unit cost                           US$3,527 /t
                        Copper         Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Net unit cost (C1)                        US$3,178 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                     96
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GS Copper 60


Exhibit 98: Morenci


                   Morenci                                                        USA                                                                  100 ktpa                                            US$1,544 mn                         15% IRR


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sumitomo,
  The Morenci mine is an open pit operation located in Arizona, USA. The ownership of the mine consists of Freeport                                                                                                           15.0%
  (85%) and affiliates of Sumitomo Corporation (15%). Freeport completed a feasibility study looking into the
  possibility of expanding the mine’s production capacity through the processing of additional sulphide ores identified
  through exploratory drilling. The new milling facilities received environmental permits in March 2012 and once fully
  ramped up will produce an additional c.100ktpa of copper by increasing milling capacity to 115ktpd from the existing
  50ktpd capacity, with commissioning expected in 2014. Freeport has commenced with initial construction,                                                                                                                          Freeport,
  engineering, and procurement activities. The company is guiding to US$1.4 bn capex with US$0.4 bn spent by May                                                                                                                    85.0%
  2013.




Production profile                                                      Cash flow chart                                                                                                              Economics summary
120                                                               5.0                                                                                                                                Internal rate of return                             15%
      Cu (kt)                                           Mo (kt)                                       600
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                      US$662
                                                                  4.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (2013)                                    US$1,190
100                                                                                                   400
                                                                  4.0                                                                                                                                Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013             US$6,514 /t
                                                                        Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)



                                                                  3.5                                 200                                                                                            Capex                                       US$1,544 mn
 80                                                                                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu production                      US$15,435
                                                                  3.0                                   -                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production                 US$13,270
 60                                                               2.5                                                                                                                                Project type                                  Brownfield
                                                                                                      -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project status                              Construction
                                                                  2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ore reserves / resources                        4,018 mt
 40                                                                                                   -400
                                                                  1.5                                                                                                                                Copper grade                                   0.27% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Contained copper                               10,849 kt
                                                                  1.0                                 -600
 20                                                                                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                      2014
                                                                  0.5
                                                                                                      -800                                                                                           Peak copper production                          100 ktpa
                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                             2014E

                                                                                                                                     2016E

                                                                                                                                             2018E

                                                                                                                                                     2020E

                                                                                                                                                             2022E

                                                                                                                                                                     2024E

                                                                                                                                                                             2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                     2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                             2030E
  0                                                               0.0                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                          100 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Life of mine                                       37+

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                              US$4,189 /t
                   Copper            Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Net unit cost (C1)                           US$2,879 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                      97
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GS Copper 60




Exhibit 99: Olympic Dam Phase 1


      Olympic Dam Phase 1                                            Australia                                                                          150 ktpa                                            US$4,020 mn                   11% IRR

  BHP is seeking to increase production from 200ktpa to 350ktpa of copper cathode at Olympic Dam, which is
  located 550km north-west of Adelaide. BHP announced in October 2011 the approval for US$1.2 bn in pre-
  commitment capital for the first phase of the project to develop an open pit mine. The project is currently in the
  feasibility stage and progression remains dependent on the completion of studies. Prior to the announcement, BHP
  received environmental approvals from the state and federal governments following the assessment of the
  Environmental Impact Statements. The project will require three years to pre-strip the waste and construct                                                                                                                       BHP,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   100%
  additional infrastructure such as smelters and accommodation. This is a high cost operation, but by-poduct credits
  mainly from uranium sales serve to significantly reduce the asset's cost position on a net basis. The total capex for
  the project was previously estimated to be US$3bn with a production start in 2016. The project is currently under
  review as the company seeks to reduce the capital intensity and costs relating to the pre-strip. As such we have
  pushed back our estimated start date to 2018.


Production profile                                                     Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
160                                                              700                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                       11%
       Cu (kt)                                     Ag (koz)                                          1,000
       Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                -US$75
140    U (kt)                                                                                                                                                                                         NPV (2013)                                -US$75
                                                                 600
                                                                                                       500                                                                                            Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013       US$8,243 /t
                                                                       Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




120
                                                                 500                                                                                                                                  Capex                                 US$4,020 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capex / t Cu production                US$26,802
100                                                                                                      -
                                                                 400                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu equ. production           US$23,756

 80                                                                                                                                                                                                   Project type                            Brownfield

                                                                 300                                  -500                                                                                            Project status                          Feasibility
 60                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ore reserves / resources                   756 mt

                                                                 200                                                                                                                                  Copper grade                             1.50% Cu
 40                                                                                                  -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Contained copper                         11,340 kt

                                                                 100                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                2018
 20
                                                                                                     -1,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                    150 ktpa
                                                                                                                              2014E

                                                                                                                                      2016E

                                                                                                                                              2018E

                                                                                                                                                      2020E

                                                                                                                                                              2022E

                                                                                                                                                                      2024E

                                                                                                                                                                              2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                      2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                              2030E
                                                                                                                2010

                                                                                                                       2012




  0                                                              0                                                                                                                                    Average LOM production                    150 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Life of mine                                 33+

                                                                                                             Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                        US$6,283 /t
               Copper       Gold        Uranium         Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Net unit cost (C1)                     US$2,560 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                 98
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GS Copper 60


Exhibit 100: Oyu Tolgoi Open Pit (stand-alone)


 Oyu Tolgoi open pit only                                          Mongolia                                                                           150 ktpa                                            US$6,188 mn                            10% IRR



  The Oyu Tolgoi asset is a greenfield project situated in Mongolia's South Gobi Desert. The project will consist of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mongolia          Rio Tinto,
  both open pit and underground operations. Construction of the open pit mine complex and concentrator complex                                                                                                                            33.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      gov, 34.0%
  was complete by end 1Q13 with mine infrastructure essentially complete. Mining and stockpiling of first ore began in
  April 2012. First concentrate from the Phase 1 open pit was produced on 31 January 2013 and ramp-up is
  underway with concentrator production rates of up to 60% of design capacity achieved and full commercial                                                                                                                       Turquoise
  production is expected 2H13. The site is being developed as a joint venture between Turquoise Hill Resources, Rio                                                                                                                 Hill
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Resources
  Tinto, and the Government of Mongolia (34% ownership). Assuming total concentrator capacity of 100ktpd and no                                                                                                                  (excl. Rio
  further development of the Hugo North underground deposit, we assume no further capex requirement beyond the                                                                                                                     Tinto),
  latest US$6.2bn estimate under this open-pit-only scenario, however this figure already includes c.US$0.5bn in                                                                                                                   32.3%
  underground development capex.




Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
700                                                            1400                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                                   10%
      Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                         1,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                           -US$169
600                                                            1200                                 1,000                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                          US$6,098
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                   US$9,036 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                      500
500                                                            1000                                                                                                                                 Capex                                             US$6,188 mn

                                                                                                        -
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                            US$41,253
400                                                            800                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu equ. production                       US$30,925
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                           Project type                                        Greenfield
300                                                            600                                                                                                                                  Project status                                      Producing
                                                                                                    -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                              1,048 mt
200                                                            400                                  -1,500                                                                                          Copper grade                                         0.46% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                                      4,821 kt
                                                                                                    -2,000
100                                                            200                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                            2013

                                                                                                    -2,500                                                                                          Peak copper production                                200 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                    Average LOM production                                150 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                             38+

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                    US$3,527 /t
                 Copper           Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                                 US$1,549 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                           99
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 GS Copper 60


Exhibit 101: Oyu Tolgoi Open Pit (base case)


      Oyu Tolgoi open pit                                        Mongolia                                                                             110 ktpa                                            US$6,188 mn                             6% IRR

  The Oyu Tolgoi asset is a greenfield project situated in Mongolia's South Gobi Desert. The project will consist of
  both open pit and underground operations. Construction of the open pit mine complex and concentrator complex
  was complete by end 1Q13 with mine infrastructure essentially complete. Mining and stockpiling of first ore began
  in April 2012. First concentrate from the Phase 1 open pit was produced on January 31, 2013 and ramp-up is                                                                                                           Mongolia          Rio Tinto,
  underway with concentrator production rates of up to 60% of design capacity achieved and full commercial                                                                                                            gov, 34.0%          33.7%
  production is expected 2H13. Phase 2 consists of a 95ktpd block cave operation at the Hugo North deposit which is
  due to commence production in 2016. The site is being developed as a joint venture between Turquoise Hill
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Turquoise
  Resources, Rio Tinto, and the Government of Mongolia (34% ownership). Oyu Tolgoi is the largest undertaking in                                                                                                                     Hill
  Mongolia’s history with the mine (open pit and underground) expected to produce over 500ktpa of copper,                                                                                                                        Resources
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (excl. Rio
  500kozpa of gold as well as strong silver production for the first 10 years. This is based on total concentrator                                                                                                                 Tinto),
  capacity of 100ktpd, with a decision to expand to 160ktpd not required before 2015. Under the existing technical                                                                                                                 32.3%
  report, ore from the open pit will be mostly displaced by higher grade ore from the underground operation until the
  latter ceases.The latest capex estimate from the updated technical report released on March 25, 2013, is US$6.2
  bn for Phase 1 (including sunk costs) and US$5.1 bn for the underground development in Phase 2. We believe that
  main risks relate to investing capital in a region with less developed mining standards and codes, adding to the
  already elevated regulatory risk that comes from investing in some emerging economies.


Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
700                                                          1400                                                                                                                                   Internal rate of return                                    6%
      Cu (kt)                                    Ag (koz)                                           1,500
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                         -US$2,721
600                                                          1200                                   1,000                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                          US$3,546
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                  US$13,248 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                      500
500                                                          1000                                                                                                                                   Capex                                             US$6,188 mn

                                                                                                        -
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                            US$56,255
400                                                          800                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu equ. production                       US$42,358
                                                                                                     -500                                                                                           Project type                                        Greenfield
300                                                          600                                                                                                                                    Project status                                      Producing
                                                                                                    -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                              1,048 mt
200                                                          400                                    -1,500                                                                                          Copper grade                                         0.46% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                                      4,821 kt
                                                                                                    -2,000
100                                                          200                                                                                                                                    Commissioning                                            2013

                                                                                                    -2,500                                                                                          Peak copper production                                200 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




  0                                                          0                                                                                                                                      Average LOM production                                110 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                             38+

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                    US$3,527 /t
                 Copper         Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                                 US$1,549 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                             100
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GS Copper 60




Exhibit 102: Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave


   Oyu Tolgoi Block Cave                                           Mongolia                                                                          490 ktpa                                            US$5,905 mn                          19% IRR

  Phase 2 of the Oyu Tolgoi project consists of a 95ktpd block cave operation at the Hugo North deposit which is due
  to commence production in 2016. Oyu Tolgoi is the largest undertaking in Mongolia’s history with the mine (open pit
  and underground) expected to produce over 500ktpa of copper, 500kozpa of gold as well as strong silver                                                                                                               Mongolia          Rio Tinto,
  production for the first 10 years. This is based on total concentrator capacity of 100ktpd, with a decision to expand                                                                                               gov, 34.0%          33.7%
  to 160ktpd not required before 2015. Under the existing technical report, ore from the open pit will be mostly
  displaced by higher grade ore from the underground operation until the latter ceases.The latest capex estimate
  from the updated technical report released on March 25, 2013 is US$5.1 bn for the underground development in                                                                                                                  Turquoise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Hill
  Phase 2, but we see upside risk to this figure. A feasibility study refining cost estimates is expected to be completed                                                                                                       Resources
  in 1H14. We believe that main risks relate to investing capital in a region with less developed mining standards and                                                                                                          (excl. Rio
  codes, adding to the already elevated regulatory risk that comes from investing in some emerging economies.                                                                                                                     Tinto),
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  32.3%



Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                              Economics summary
600                                                            2500                                                                                                                                Internal rate of return                                    19%
      Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                         4,000
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                     NPV (including sunk costs)                           US$3,348
                                                                                                                                                                                                   NPV (2013)                                           US$3,461
500                                                                                                 3,000
                                                               2000                                                                                                                                Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                    US$5,780 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                    2,000                                                                                          Capex                                              US$5,905 mn
400                                                                                                                                                                                                Capex / t Cu production                             US$12,051
                                                               1500                                 1,000                                                                                          Capex / t Cu equ. production                        US$10,516
300                                                                                                                                                                                                Project type                                         Brownfield
                                                                                                        -
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Project status                                       Feasibility
                                                               1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ore reserves / resources                                491 mt
200                                                                                                 -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Copper grade                                          1.80% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Contained copper                                       8,838 kt
                                                               500                                  -2,000
100                                                                                                                                                                                                Commissioning                                             2016

                                                                                                    -3,000                                                                                         Peak copper production                                 490 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                           2018E

                                                                                                                                                   2020E

                                                                                                                                                           2022E

                                                                                                                                                                   2024E

                                                                                                                                                                           2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                   2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                           2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                   Average LOM production                                 490 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Life of mine                                                20

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                     US$3,197 /t
                 Copper           Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Net unit cost (C1)                                  US$2,294 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                         101
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GS Copper 60


Exhibit 103: Oyu Tolgoi Total


          Oyu Tolgoi Total                                         Mongolia                                                                           550 ktpa                                          US$12,093 mn                             12% IRR
  The Oyu Tolgoi asset is a greenfield project situated in Mongolia's South Gobi Desert. The project will consist of
  both open pit and underground operations. Construction of the open pit mine complex and concentrator complex
  was complete by end 1Q13 with mine infrastructure essentially complete. Mining and stockpiling of first ore began
  in April 2012. First concentrate from the Phase 1 open pit was produced on 31 January 2013 and ramp-up is
  underway with concentrator production rates of up to 60% of design capacity achieved and full commercial                                                                                                             Mongolia          Rio Tinto,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      gov, 34.0%          33.7%
  production is expected 2H13. Phase 2 consists of a 95ktpd block cave operation at the Hugo North deposit which is
  due to commence production in 2016. The site is being developed as a joint venture between Turquoise Hill
  Resources, Rio Tinto, and the Government of Mongolia (34% ownership). Oyu Tolgoi is the largest undertaking in                                                                                                                 Turquoise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Hill
  Mongolia’s history with the mine (open pit and underground) expected to produce over 500ktpa of copper,                                                                                                                        Resources
  500kozpa of gold as well as strong silver production for the first 10 years. This is based on total concentrator                                                                                                               (excl. Rio
  capacity of 100ktpd, with a decision to expand to 160ktpd not required before 2015. Under the existing technical                                                                                                                 Tinto),
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   32.3%
  report, ore from the open pit will be mostly displaced by higher grade ore from the underground operation until the
  latter ceases.The latest capex estimate from the updated technical report released on 25 March is US$6.2bn for
  Phase 1 (including sunk costs) and US$5.1bn for the underground development in Phase 2. A feasibility study
  refining cost estimates is expected to be completed in 1H14. We believe that main risks relate to investing capital in
  a region with less developed mining standards and codes, adding to the already elevated regulatory risk that comes
  from investing in some emerging economies.

Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
700                                                            3000                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                                    12%
      Cu (kt)                                      Ag (koz)                                         4,000
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                           US$1,491
600                                                                                                                                                                                                 NPV (2013)                                           US$7,859
                                                               2500                                 3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013                    US$7,360 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




500                                                                                                 2,000                                                                                           Capex                                             US$12,093 mn
                                                               2000                                                                                                                                 Capex / t Cu production                             US$21,987
400                                                                                                 1,000                                                                                           Capex / t Cu equ. production                        US$19,010
                                                               1500                                                                                                                                 Project type                                         Greenfield
                                                                                                        -
300                                                                                                                                                                                                 Project status                                       Producing
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                               1,539 mt
                                                               1000                                 -1,000
200                                                                                                                                                                                                 Copper grade                                          0.89% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                                      13,659 kt
                                                                                                    -2,000
                                                               500                                                                                                                                  Commissioning                                             2013
100

                                                                                                    -3,000                                                                                          Peak copper production                                 550 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




  0                                                            0                                                                                                                                    Average LOM production                                 550 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                              38+

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                                     US$3,086 /t
                 Copper           Gold          Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                                  US$2,101 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                         102
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GS Copper 60




Exhibit 104: Pebble


                      Pebble                                 USA (Alaska)                                                                             300 ktpa                                            US$6,929 mn                    15% IRR

  Located in Alaska, the Pebble deposit is a JV between Anglo American and Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. The
  U.S. Geological Survey lists the Pebble resource lands as the most extensive mineralized system in the world.
  Since Northern Dynasty acquired the Pebble asset in 2001 from Teck Resources it has expanded the resource
  base by more than 1000% after launching an extensive exploration programme. The current focus for the Pebble
  JV is the completion of a prefeasibility study, after which the project permitting will begin. Following a 2-3 year                                                                                                 Northern      Anglo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   American,
  permitting window where an EIS will be submitted, the JV is expected to finalise a feasibility study and then, subject                                                                                              Dynasty,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    50.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       50.0%
  to the success at obtaining the necessary permits, will begin project construction. The JV partners expect total
  capex to reach US$4.7 bn. However we feel given the extended period of time to production an additional inflation
  adjustment should be applied to this figure when valuing the mine. The pre-feasibility study is ongoing. Following its
  completion the JV will embark on the permitting process. The main risks for the deposit in its current stage are
  delays in obtaining permits, in particular environmental concessions.


Production profile                                                    Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
700                                                              14                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                             15%
      Cu (kt)                                          Mo (kt)                                      3,000
      Au (koz)                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                    US$2,018
                                                                                                    2,500                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                    US$2,018
600                                                              12
                                                                                                    2,000                                                                                           Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$6,534 /t
                                                                      Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




500                                                              10                                                                                                                                 Capex                                      US$6,929 mn
                                                                                                    1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu production                     US$23,098
                                                                                                    1,000
400                                                              8                                                                                                                                  Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$16,423
                                                                                                      500                                                                                           Project type                                  Greenfield
300                                                              6                                      -                                                                                           Project status                             Pre-feasibility
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ore reserves / resources                        5,400 mt
                                                                                                     -500
200                                                              4                                                                                                                                  Copper grade                                   0.45% Cu
                                                                                                    -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Contained copper                               24,300 kt
100                                                              2                                  -1,500                                                                                          Commissioning                                       2019

                                                                                                    -2,000                                                                                          Peak copper production                          350 ktpa
                                                                                                                           2014E

                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                            2018E

                                                                                                                                                    2020E

                                                                                                                                                            2022E

                                                                                                                                                                    2024E

                                                                                                                                                                            2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                    2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                            2030E
                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                    2012




  0                                                              0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                          300 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Life of mine                                        32+

                                                                                                        Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                Net cash flow          Gross unit cost                             US$3,638 /t
                 Copper      Gold         Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Net unit cost (C1)                          US$1,454 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    103
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GS Copper 60




Exhibit 105: Quebrada Blanca


         Quebrada Blanca                                                 Chile                                                                          200 ktpa                                            US$6,500 mn                         8% IRR
  The Quebrada Blanca mine is an open pit operation located in Region I in Northern Chile with an elevation of
  4,400m. Teck Resources has a 76.5% interest in the mine and the remainder is shared between Inversiones                                                                                                                          ENAMI,
  Mineras S.A. (13.5%) and Empresa Nacional de Mineria (10%). In 2010 the mine initiated a feasibility study on a                                                                                                                  10.0%
  possible expansion of the existing operations (completed in 2Q12) through the development of the hypogene
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          SMP,
  deposit. The expansion programme is expected to increase output by about 200-250ktpa of copper in concentrate.                                                                                                          13.5%
  The project entails the construction of a 135ktpd concentrator along with concentrate and desalinated water
  pipelines connecting to a new port facility 165km away. The company had planned to file the updated social
  environmental impact assessment (“SEIA”) for the project by end 2Q13. However issues linked to permitting for
  existing facilities were identified and the company's current expectation is that the SEIA will not be resubmitted                                                                                                                    Teck,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        76.5%
  before end-2013. We believe the ongoing SEIA requirements may further delay the start date for construction. Teck
  has guided to a total project capex bill of c.US$5.6 bn in 2012 dollars and discussions are ongoing with project
  partners regarding financing options, which may include limited recourse project financing and potentially bringing in
  a new funding partner.

Production profile                                                       Cash flow chart                                                                                                              Economics summary
300                                                                7.0                                                                                                                                Internal rate of return                             8%
      Cu (kt)                                            Mo (kt)                                       1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV (including sunk costs)                  -US$1,385

                                                                   6.0                                 1,000                                                                                          NPV (2013)                                    -US$909
250
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$9,291 /t
                                                                         Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                         500
                                                                   5.0                                                                                                                                Capex                                      US$6,500 mn
200                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capex / t Cu production                     US$32,500
                                                                                                           -

                                                                   4.0                                                                                                                                Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$29,958
                                                                                                        -500                                                                                          Project type                                 Brownfield
150
                                                                   3.0                                                                                                                                Project status                               Feasibility
                                                                                                       -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Ore reserves / resources                       1,436 mt
100
                                                                   2.0                                 -1,500                                                                                         Copper grade                                  0.50% Cu
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Contained copper                               7,182 kt
                                                                                                       -2,000
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                   Commissioning                                     2016
                                                                   1.0
                                                                                                       -2,500                                                                                         Peak copper production                         250 ktpa
                                                                                                                              2014E

                                                                                                                                      2016E

                                                                                                                                              2018E

                                                                                                                                                      2020E

                                                                                                                                                              2022E

                                                                                                                                                                      2024E

                                                                                                                                                                              2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                      2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                              2030E
                                                                                                                2010

                                                                                                                       2012




  0                                                                0.0                                                                                                                                Average LOM production                         200 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Life of mine                                        29

                                                                                                           Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow        Gross unit cost                             US$3,638 /t
                   Copper             Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Net unit cost (C1)                          US$3,159 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    104
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        GS Copper 60




Exhibit 106: Quellaveco


                 Quellaveco                                                   Peru                                                                       225 ktpa                                            US$4,221 mn                        11% IRR

  The Quellaveco mine is a greenfield asset located in Southern Peru at c.3,500m above sea level. The project has
  recently received support from the local community for its water plan and is now waiting for construction permits                                                                                                             Other,
  from the Peruvian Government. The mine was expected to start commence production in 2015, however this will be                                                                                                                18.1%
  delayed due to the length of time it has taken for the water access and permitting. Production is forecast at 225ktpa
  of copper, with molybdenum and silver by-products. Anglo American owns 82% of the deposit and expects the mine
  to operate in the lower half of the cost curve once it reaches full capacity. The company expects capital expenditure
  to be in the range of US$3 bn; however, as production is not expected until c.2017 we expect further capital cost
  escalation. Water supply continues to be an issue for the development of the mine as the firm holds ongoing                                                                                                                        Anglo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    American,
  negotiations with all levels of government and the local community. The mine received approval of its EIS in 2000;                                                                                                                 81.9%
  however, given the failure to secure water permits management has been unable to put forward the project for
  Board approval. The target for board approval is now 2013, but this has been a moving target.


Production profile                                                      Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
250                                                              1800                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                            11%
       Cu (kt)                                        Ag (koz)                                        1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                     -US$40
                                                                 1600                                                                                                                                  NPV (2013)                                     -US$40
                                                                                                      1,000
200                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013            US$7,756 /t
                                                                        Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                 1400
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex                                      US$4,221 mn
                                                                 1200                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex / t Cu production                     US$18,761
150                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capex / t Cu equ. production                US$16,912
                                                                 1000
                                                                                                          -                                                                                            Project type                                 Greenfield
                                                                 800                                                                                                                                   Project status                               Permitting
100
                                                                                                       -500                                                                                            Ore reserves / resources                        916 mt
                                                                 600
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Copper grade                                  0.65% Cu
                                                                 400                                  -1,000                                                                                           Contained copper                               5,954 kt
 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Commissioning                                     2017
                                                                 200
                                                                                                      -1,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                         225 ktpa
                                                                                                                               2014E

                                                                                                                                       2016E

                                                                                                                                               2018E

                                                                                                                                                       2020E

                                                                                                                                                               2022E

                                                                                                                                                                       2024E

                                                                                                                                                                               2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                               2030E
                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                        2012




   0                                                             0                                                                                                                                     Average LOM production                         225 ktpa
        2010
        2011
        2012
       2013E
       2014E
       2015E
       2016E
       2017E
       2018E
       2019E
       2020E
       2021E
       2022E
       2023E
       2024E
       2025E
       2026E
       2027E
       2028E
       2029E
       2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Life of mine                                        25

                                                                                                              Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                             US$3,748 /t
                        Copper         Silver (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Net unit cost (C1)                          US$3,085 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                    105
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GS Copper 60




Exhibit 107: Radomiro Tomic


          Radomiro Tomic                                                Chile                                                                            343 ktpa                                            US$6,564 mn                       12% IRR



  The 100% Codelco owned Radomiro Tomic mine is located in Chile and is currently undergoing phase II of
  development. Phase II is expected to increase annual production by an average of 343kt of copper. The next stage
  for the project is the completion of a feasibility study, expected to be completed in 2013, with a submission for                                                                                                                 Codelco,
  enviromental and sectoral production expected shortly after. Construction is expected to be completed in 2016/17                                                                                                                  100.0%

  with commissioning and ramp-up through 2017/18. Latest estimate of the resource base is 9,403Mt of ore with a
  copper grade of 0.39%. Total capex guidance for the project is expected to be US$5.4 bn.




Production profile                                                      Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
400                                                               4.0                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                            12%
      Cu (kt)                                           Mo (kt)                                       2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                     US$518
350                                                               3.5                                 1,500                                                                                            NPV (2013)                                     US$518
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013           US$7,357 /t
                                                                        Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                      1,000
300                                                               3.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex                                     US$6,564 mn
                                                                                                        500
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex / t Cu production                    US$19,136
250                                                               2.5
                                                                                                          -                                                                                            Capex / t Cu equ. production               US$19,136
200                                                               2.0                                                                                                                                  Project type                                 Brownfield
                                                                                                       -500
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Project status                            Pre-feasibility
150                                                               1.5                                 -1,000                                                                                           Ore reserves / resources                       9,403 mt
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Copper grade                                  0.39% Cu
                                                                                                      -1,500
100                                                               1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Contained copper                              36,672 kt
                                                                                                      -2,000                                                                                           Commissioning                                      2017
 50                                                               0.5
                                                                                                      -2,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                         343 ktpa
                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                        2012

                                                                                                                               2014E

                                                                                                                                       2016E

                                                                                                                                               2018E

                                                                                                                                                       2020E

                                                                                                                                                               2022E

                                                                                                                                                                       2024E

                                                                                                                                                                               2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                               2030E
  0                                                               0.0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                         343 ktpa
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E
       2010
       2011
       2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Life of mine                                       34+

                                                                                                              Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                            US$3,527 /t
                   Copper            Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Net unit cost (C1)                         US$3,329 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                      106
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    GS Copper 60


Exhibit 108: Relincho


                  Relincho                                              Chile                                                                            180 ktpa                                            US$4,740 mn                     8% IRR


  The Relincho deposit is wholly owned by Teck Resources and located in central Chile 110km east of the port city of
  Huasco at an altitude of 2,200m. The project to develop the mine is currently undergoing a feasibility study which is
  expected to be completed in 4Q13. Drilling at the mine site is ongoing and a new resource estimate will likely be
  announced at the same time as the feasibility study. The prefeasibility study indicated a possible open pit operation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Teck,
  producing an average annual copper production of 180kt and 6kt of molybdenum over a c.22 year mine life (with                                                                                                                     100.0%
  higher production in the first five years). Production is not expected until 4Q17 (c.10 years after Teck acquired full
  ownership). The latest resource estimate (2007) is 875Mt of ore at a copper and molybdenum grade of 0.45% and
  0.023%, respectively. Teck expects total capex for the project to be US$3.9 bn, but we expect this to be revised up
  once the feasibility study is announced.



Production profile                                                      Cash flow chart                                                                                                                Economics summary
250                                                               8.0                                                                                                                                  Internal rate of return                         8%
      Cu (kt)                                           Mo (kt)                                       1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       NPV (including sunk costs)                -US$763
                                                                  7.0                                                                                                                                  NPV (2013)                                -US$731
200                                                                                                     500                                                                                            Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013        US$8,769 /t
                                                                        Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)


                                                                  6.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex                                  US$4,740 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex / t Cu production                 US$26,336
                                                                  5.0                                     -
150
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Capex / t Cu equ. production            US$23,752
                                                                  4.0                                                                                                                                  Project type                             Greenfield
                                                                                                       -500                                                                                            Project status                           Feasibility
100
                                                                  3.0                                                                                                                                  Ore reserves / resources                    875 mt
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Copper grade                              0.45% Cu
                                                                  2.0                                 -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Contained copper                           3,938 kt
 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Commissioning                                 2018
                                                                  1.0
                                                                                                      -1,500                                                                                           Peak copper production                     220 ktpa
                                                                                                                               2014E

                                                                                                                                       2016E

                                                                                                                                               2018E

                                                                                                                                                       2020E

                                                                                                                                                               2022E

                                                                                                                                                                       2024E

                                                                                                                                                                               2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                       2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                               2030E
                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                        2012




  0                                                               0.0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                     180 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Life of mine                                    21

                                                                                                              Operating cash flow              Total annual capex                Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                         US$3,638 /t
                   Copper            Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Net unit cost (C1)                      US$2,990 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                 107
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           GS Copper 60




Exhibit 109: Resolution


                Resolution                                    USA (Arizona)                                                                               500 ktpa                                            US$5,391 mn                      19% IRR



  The Resolution copper project is located in Superior, Arizona, USA. Rio Tinto has a 55% stake while BHP holds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             BHP
  45%. Drill results suggest a large ore body more than 2,000 metres below the surface which Rio expects will                                                                                                               Billiton,
  support an operation producing on average 500ktpa of copper for at least 40 years. The project is currently in the                                                                                                        45.0%
  pre-feasibility stage which is expected to be completed in 2013. First production is not expected until 2021 with                                                                                                                     Rio Tinto,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         55.0%
  initial estimates of capex coming in at US$3.2 bn. However we see likely risk of this being revised up substantially.
  Rio plan to mine the deposit using the block caving method which is most suited to large deposits with a low grade.




Production profile                                                        Cash flow chart                                                                                                               Economics summary
600                                                                12.0                                                                                                                                 Internal rate of return                              19%
      Cu (kt)                                            Mo (kt)                                        2,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                        NPV (including sunk costs)                     US$2,508
                                                                                                        2,000                                                                                           NPV (2013)                                     US$2,508
500                                                                10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cu price required @ 15% IRR 2013              US$5,810 /t
                                                                          Cash flow (US$ mn, nominal)




                                                                                                        1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Capex                                        US$5,391 mn
400                                                                8.0                                  1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Capex / t Cu production                       US$10,782
                                                                                                          500                                                                                           Capex / t Cu equ. production                  US$10,060
300                                                                6.0                                                                                                                                  Project type                                   Greenfield
                                                                                                            -
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Project status                                   Scoping
                                                                                                         -500                                                                                           Ore reserves / resources                         1,624 mt
200                                                                4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Copper grade                                    1.47% Cu
                                                                                                        -1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Contained copper                                23,873 kt
100                                                                2.0                                  -1,500                                                                                          Commissioning                                       2021

                                                                                                        -2,000                                                                                          Peak copper production                           500 ktpa
                                                                                                                               2014E

                                                                                                                                       2016E

                                                                                                                                                2018E

                                                                                                                                                        2020E

                                                                                                                                                                2022E

                                                                                                                                                                        2024E

                                                                                                                                                                                2026E

                                                                                                                                                                                        2028E

                                                                                                                                                                                                2030E
                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                        2012




  0                                                                0.0                                                                                                                                  Average LOM production                           500 ktpa
       2010
       2011
       2012
      2013E
      2014E
      2015E
      2016E
      2017E
      2018E
      2019E
      2020E
      2021E
      2022E
      2023E
      2024E
      2025E
      2026E
      2027E
      2028E
      2029E
      2030E




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Life of mine                                        30+

                                                                                                            Operating cash flow                Total annual capex                 Net cash flow         Gross unit cost                               US$3,638 /t
                   Copper             Molybdenum (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Net unit cost (C1)                            US$3,202 /t

Source: Company data, Brook Hunt, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                       108
July 9, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GS Copper 60




Exhibit 110: Salobo 1


                  Salobo 1                                            Brazil                                                                          100 ktpa                                            US$2,337 mn                     12% IRR


  The Salobo deposit is located in Carajas, northern Brazil and is 100% owned by Vale. Salobo is the largest copper
  deposit discovered in Brazil with 7.3Mt of copper resources. The synergies from an already existing efficient
  logistics and electrical infrastructure provide additional benefits to Vale. The mine was originally scheduled to start
  production in 2H11, however, due to construction issues it was been postponed to 2H12. Commercial production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Vale,
  started in 3Q12 with a total of 13kt produced in 2012 and the first phase of development is expected to see the