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100pc RE Input Assumptions Overview - Department of Climate

VIEWS: 1 PAGES: 19

									                100 Per Cent Renewables Study

                       AEMO Overview



                 Stakeholder Information Forum
                      28 September 2012


Presented by:
Rob Jackson
100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Presentation outline

•   Overview of project
•   Framework
•   Demand Forecasts
•   Supply Costs
•   Next Steps




                                2
OVERVIEW




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Overview
• AEMO to prepare a report on 100% renewable electricity supply scenarios

• The Report will contain:
   o the generation plant and the major transmission networks required to
      support each scenario
   o the estimated capital cost requirements for each scenario based on
      today’s dollars, and
   o an indicative estimate of the impact on customer energy prices.




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Problem statement
• Describe a generation and transmission portfolio that could supply forecast
  electricity demand in 2030 and 2050 at least-cost under 2 scenarios
    => Four cases to be analysed
• Just considering electricity supply and demand
• NEM only
• Maintaining the current reliability standard for the NEM of no more than
  0.002% unserved energy (USE).




                                                                          5
100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Framework Assumptions
•   Market framework:
    o The study will not address any changes required to the NEM or other
      market frameworks
•   Regulatory framework:
    o Assume the necessary regulatory framework is in place to enable the
      required build of electricity generation and transmission facilities.
      These include planning permit processes and market access issues




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Recommendations
•   The report will not include recommendations based on the results of the
    study
•   The report will not include any views as to the viability or likelihood of
    achieving 100% renewable supply by 2030 or 2050




                                                                             7
OVERALL ASSUMPTIONS




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Key Assumptions
•   No transition path:
    o Describe 100% renewable scenarios for 2030 and 2050
    o Will not include a description of any transition paths to these years
    o “Least-cost” considers costs of building in that year – akin to building
       the whole system in one year
    o However certain assumptions regarding a transition path will be made,
       such as:
       Ø technology development progress leading to technology availability (or not)
         in 2030 and 2050
       Ø technology cost learning curves (but applied at 2030 and 2050 only)
       Ø generation and transmission equipment build-rate limits in the years leading
         to the target years of 2030 and 2050.




                                                                                  9
100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Scenarios
•   Scenario 1 - Rapid transformation and moderate economic growth
     o strong progress on reducing technology costs
     o strong demand-side participation
     o moderate economic and demand growth
•   Scenario 2 - Moderate transformation and high economic growth
     o current trends in reducing technology costs continue
     o moderate demand-side participation
     o robust economic and energy demand growth




                                                                     10
100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Key Issues
•   What is the demand to meet?
•   What renewable energy resources and generation technologies are
    available?
•   How much of each resource / technology is available?
•   What is their cost?
•   What is the diversity and variability of different resources and locations?
•   What are the operational issues in managing a 100% Renewables
    system?




                                                                              11
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ASSUMPTIONS




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Electricity Demand
•   The demand scenarios are for the electricity sector only
•   Forecast demand level is very uncertain
•   Extrapolate demand in line with current AEMO NEFR forecasts
•   Price elasticity is not well understood when subjecting to large changes –
    both residential and industry
     o Reasonable to assume that significant demand reductions will result –
         voluntary and through innovation
•   Add in a moderate amount of reductions for energy efficiency
•   No explicit fuel switching considered
     o Allowances included for assumed natural uptake of Electric Vehicles




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Generation Technologies
•   Included:
     • Wind – onshore and offshore
     • Solar – PV single-axis tracking
     • Solar – CST central receiver dual-axis tracking
     • Geothermal – two types (HSA, EGS)
     • Wave
     • Biomass
     • Hydro (existing)
     • Demand-side participation included here

•   Excluded
     • All fossil fuel (with or without CCS)
     • Nuclear
                                                         14
100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY


Energy Storage Technologies
•   Batteries (large scale > 10 MWh)
•   Biomass solids
•   Biogas
•   Compressed air
•   Molten salt thermal energy (heat) storage
•   Pumped hydro – existing + retrofit new fresh water (no new large dams)
    and new seawater




                                                                         15
NEXT STEPS




             SLIDE ‹#›
100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY




• Modelling
   o Generation
   o Storage
• Operational Review
   o Review of modelling results
   o Amend results if needed
• Calculate capital cost requirements for each scenario
• Calculate the indicative estimate of the impact on customer energy prices
   o Considering Wholesale Energy and Transmission only




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100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY




•   Assumptions report available on DCCEE webpage
•   Detailed Supply and Demand reports and data sets available on DCCEE
    webpage
•   100 Per Cent Renewables Report
     o Draft to be finalised by 31 March 2013
     o Final May 2013




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