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					         Forecasting
    The Renewable Frontier


              The Challenges of
              Renewable Electricity
              Forecasting

                                            Disclaimer
               This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information
               Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on
               statistical matters from the American Statistical Association
               Committee on Energy Statistics. This topic will be discussed at EIA’s
               fall 2008 meeting with the Committee to be held October 23, 2008.

1                                                     Brian Murphy - EIA
    Topics

    l   Why is forecasting renewable electricity
        difficult?
    l   Assumptions & Methodology
    l   Data
        –   Project Database Sample
        –   Preliminary Forecasts
    l   Challenges
    l   Questions

2
    Installed Wind Capacity




3   Source: Earth Policy Institute
    Assumptions & Methodology

    l   Database of all known renewable electricity projects
    l   Projects assumed to be completed as scheduled
    l   If date of completion unknown, date assumed based
        on technology and location
    l   Probability factor for each project, by region and
        country
    l   Official government targets assumed to be met



4
    Assumptions & Methodology

    l   Other organization’s “business as usual” scenarios
        used to fill out post-2020 forecast, if available
    l   After 2020, renewable electricity assumed to grow at
        diminishing rate (%)




5
    Project Database


                             energy                orig_cap        capacity
    region       country     type     project      (MW)            (MW)       orig_date   new_date   probability


    Australia/                        Cooper
    NZ           Australia   Geo      Basin                   50       47.5        2011       2011          0.95



    Brazil       Brazil      Hydro    Belo Monte       11,181         8,945      2012+        2013           0.8


    OECD
    Europe       Spain       Solar    Almeria            15.4          14.6    unknown        2014          0.95


                                      Iberdrola
    Mexico       Mexico      Wind     Renovables              90         54   2010-2012       2012           0.6


6
    Global Renewables Capacity




7   Source: EIA
    European Renewables Capacity




8   Source: EIA
    Chinese Renewables Capacity




9   Source: EIA
     Challenges

     l   No lag factor for completion dates
     l   No probability that countries will achieve targets
     l   No econometric model
         –   Historical data unreliable for trends
         –   Policy driven growth difficult to model
     l   Assumption of “business as usual” post-2020
     l   Implicit assumption that projects database
         represents vast majority of actual projects


10
     My Questions

     l   Are there any recommended econometric
         modeling techniques?
     l   How can future government policies be
         modeled?
     l   Can the historical data be usefully integrated
         into a model?



11
     Thank You

     Brian Murphy
     Renewable Energy Economist
     Brian.Murphy@eia.doe.gov




12

				
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posted:7/26/2013
language:English
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