Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

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					                        370

                        360
                                 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
                        350
CO2 Concentration ppm




                        340

                                                                          82%
                        330

                        320

                        310
                                 1940
                        300                                               18%
                                 1900
                        290

                        280
                          1950      1960      1970          1980   1990     2000
                                                     Year
                             26
                                                               Medieval Climate Optimum

                             25                                          82%
Sea Surface temperature °C




                             24


                             23


                             22

                                                                         18%

                             21       Temperature of Sargaso Sea
                                                                                   Little Ice Age
                             20
                              -1000    -500     0       500           1000        1500          2000
                                                        Year
                                                                                1
                                   0.4                                          8


                                   0.2




                                                                                      Solar Magnetic Cycle Length years
Deviation from 1951-1970 Mean °C


                                                                                2
                                                                                0
                                   0.0

                                                                                2
                                   -0.2
                                                                                2

                                   -0.4
                                                                                2
                                   -0.6                                         4
                                                     Northern Hemisphere
                                                     Surface Temperature vs.
                                   -0.8              Solar Cycle Length         2
                                                                                6
                                   -1.0
                                     1750   1800   1850         1900    1950   2000
                                                          Yea
                                                          r
                             13
US National Temperature °C




                             12




                             11



                                            United States Surface Temperature

                             10
                              1890   1910    1930         1950   1970   1990
                                                    Yea
                                                    r
                                    0.8

                                    0.6
Deviation from 1979-1996 mean °C


                                    0.4

                                    0.2

                                     0

                                   -0.2

                                   -0.4

                                   -0.6

                                   -0.8            Global Lower Troposphere Balloon
                                    -1
                                     1958   1968       1978          1988             1998
                                                       Year
                                    0.6



                                    0.4
Deviation from 1979-1996 mean °C




                                    0.2


                                     0



                                   -0.2



                                   -0.4

                                                    Global Lower Troposphere Satellite
                                   -0.6
                                      1978   1983      1988           1993          1998
                                                       Year
                                0.4

                                0.3

                                0.2
Deviation from 1979 - 1996 °C




                                 0.1

                                  0

                                -0.1

                                -0.2

                                -0.3

                                -0.4     Satellite     Balloon

                                -0.5
                                  1979          1984     1989    1994   1999
                                                         Year
                                1.5



                                  1
Deviation from 1979 - 1996 °C




                                0.5



                                  0



                                -0.5



                                 -1              North America Surface vs. Satellite


                                -1.5
                                   1979   1984         1989              1994

                                                      Years
Qualitative Greenhouse Effect




                                          Greenhouse Effects and Hypotheses




                                Present    Radiative      Hypothesis 1   Hypothesis 2
                                 GHE      Effect of CO2      IPCC
                    120


                   100
Watts per square meter




                         80                         Climate Model Uncertainties

                         60


                         40


                         20


                          0

                              Ocean Surface North-South      Humidity   Clouds   Greenhouse
                                                                                 (Doubled   CO2)
                              Flux Correction Heat Flux by
                                                Motions
                                   0.8

                                            IPCC Predicted Global
                                              Warming Trend
                                   0.6
Temperature change from 1979 °C




                                   0.4


                                   0.2



                                    0



                                  -0.2

                                                     Global Lower Tropospheric Temperature
                                  -0.4
                                     1978    1983              1988        1993          1998
                                                               Year
                         0.8                                            37
                                                                        0


                         0.6




                                                                             CO2 Concentration ppm
Deviation from 1890 °C




                                                                        34
                         0.4                                            0




                         0.2
                                                                        31
                                                                        0
                          0



                     -0.2                                               28
                       1880    1900   1920         1940   1960   1980   0
                                             Yea
                                             r
                                            0.8

Temperature trend per Decade 1940-1996 °C
                                            0.7        Heat Island Effect in California
                                            0.6

                                            0.5

                                            0.4

                                            0.3

                                            0.2

                                            0.1

                                             0

                                            -0.1
                                              10,000           100,000               1,000,000   10,000,000
                                                                    Population of County
                               8

                               6
Sea Level change millimeters



                               4

                               2

                               0

                               -2

                               -4

                               -6                    Global Sea Level

                               -8
                                1993   1994   1995          1996        1997
                                              Year
                          Maximum attained Wind Speed
                              Meters per Second




       0
                                                               100



                                                          80




                                                40
                                                     60




                       20




       1940
       1950
       1960
       1970
Year
       1980
       1990
                              Atlantic Hurricanes




         0
                      5



       2000
                               10




              Number of Violent
              Hurricanes
Long-lived Pine Trees
Young Pine Trees
           800



                     United States Standing Timber
Softwoods Cubic
Hardwoods and




           700
 Billions of
 Feet




           600
              1950         1960       1970       1980   1990
                                      Year
                  40
                  0                                                   400 ppm CO2

                                                                      700 ppm CO2

                  30         171 %          175 %
                  0

                                                                            12 %
                                                            107 %
Relative Growth




                                                                            7
                  20
                  0



                  10
                  0



                   0
                       Trunk & Limbs    Fine Roots    Trunk & Limbs      Oranges
                          Young           Young          Mature          per Tree
                       Orange Trees    Orange Trees   Orange Trees
                             10000
                                                          8%
                                                                   370 ppm CO2
                                                                                            12%
                                                                   550 ppm CO2
                              8000
                                          21%
Grain Yield Kg per hectare




                                                                            25%
                              6000



                              4000



                              2000



                                0
                                     1


                                         Dry             Wet               Dry              Wet

                                               1992-93                            1993-94
                                                               Wheat
279 Plant Experiments
                                          350

                                                       280 ppm CO2
                                          300
Production Normalized to 100 at 280 ppm

                                                       360 ppm CO2


                                          250


                                          200
                                                                                               65%

                                          150                              34%       29%
                                                    10%          4%
                                          100


                                           50


                                           0
                                                Dry Wheat   Wet Wheat   Oranges   Orange     Young
                                                                                   Trees   Pine
                                                                                           Trees
                                          400
                                                                                               265%
                                                        280 ppm CO2
                                          350
                                                        600 ppm CO2
Production Normalized to 100 at 280 ppm




                                          300


                                          250                              135%
                                                                                    114%

                                          200


                                          150        41%
                                                                 18%

                                          10
                                          0

                                          50


                                           0
                                                Dry Wheat   Wet Wheat   Oranges   Orange     Young
                                                                                   Trees   Pine Trees

				
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