FAA System-Wide Modeling

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					FAA System-Wide                               Federal Aviation
                                              Administration

Modeling
Uses and Shortfalls




Presented to: GMU System-Wide Modeling
              Workshop
By: Joseph Post, ATO NextGen & Ops Planning
Date: 10 December 2008
Overview
• Uses of System-Wide Models
                                                      If we can’t model
• NextGen Overview                                  the current system,
                                                     how can we model
• Modeling Shortcomings                                   this thing?

      – ATM Domain                               NextGen
           •   Airport
           •   Terminal
           •   En Route
           •   Oceanic
           •   Flow Control
           •   Airline Operations Center (AOC)
      – Model Use


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10 December 2008                                  Administration
                           NAS Strategy
                           Simulator


                           AwSim/AERALIB


ATO                        NASPAC

Modeling
                           SIMMOD
Suite

                           RDSIM/ADSIM




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10 December 2008                  Administration
Uses of System-Wide Models
                           Cost-Benefit Analysis
Requirements Analysis                                    Development




Performance Assessment

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Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)
• Portfolio optimization
   The Challenge: To select an optimum portfolio of
                  aviation investments so as to maximize
                  the overall economic return, subject to
                  a budget constraint.




Consumer                                        Environmental
 Surplus                                            Costs

                  Producer
                   Surplus         Government
                                     Costs


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10 December 2008                                 Administration
Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)

        System-wide performance assessment

    Expectations                    Target
                           Model
                                             -                           “The
                                                     D
                                                 S                   Performance
                                                                        Loop”
    Demand
                           System
                                    Performance




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10 December 2008                                         Administration
   NextGen Implementation Plan
                                                  7 Solution Sets
                                                  Increase collaborative ATM
                                                  Increase flexibility in the terminal environment
                                                  Increase arrivals/departures at high-density airports
                                                  Initiate trajectory-based operations
                                                  Reduce weather impacts
             Air Traffic                          Improve safety, security, and environmental performance
             Operations                           Transform facilities


              NextGen
                                             43 Mid-Term Capabilities

      Aircraft &
      Operator         Airport
    Requirements     Development                                              Capital Programs
                                                                              ADS-B                  ERAM
                                                                              SWIM                   TFM-M
 Aircraft                                                                     DataComm               TMA
Roadmap                                                                       NNEW                   WAAS
                                                                              NAS Voice Switch       LAAS


      2 Solution Sets
      35 OEP airports
      15 metropolitan areas

                        FY    09   10   11      12    13    14     15    16      17    18     19


    FAA System-Wide Modeling                                                      Federal Aviation           7
    10 December 2008                                                              Administration
TBO
                Initiate Trajectory Based Operations




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10 December 2008                               Administration
HiDensity Solution Set
   Increase Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports




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10 December 2008                         Administration
Flex Terminal
              Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Area




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10 December 2008                                Administration
Collaborative ATM
                           Improve Collaborative ATM




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10 December 2008                                   Administration
Weather
                           Reduce Weather Impact




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10 December 2008                                   Administration
Airport Modeling Shortfalls
   • Simplistic airport capacity
         – Single airport configuration
   • Convection weather
         – Airport closure
   • Departure release
   • Surface congestion
         – Taxiways
         – Gates
         – De-icing
   • Tail number tracking
         – Delay propagation
                                          Coupled
   • Passenger tracking
         – Connections

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10 December 2008                                    Administration
Terminal Modeling Shortfalls

• Simplistic terminal airspace
      – Airport coupling
      – Terminal capacity
• Aircraft trajectories
      – Route of flight
      – STARs
      – DPs
• Convection weather
      – Re-routing/arrival gate closure

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10 December 2008                          Administration
En Route Modeling Shortfalls
• Static sector capacity
      – Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP)
• Static sector definition
• Response to sector overload
      – Re-routing
• Metering
      – Time-based metering
      – Miles-In-Trail (MIT)
• Convective weather
      – Dynamic sector capacity
      – Tactical re-routes
• Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs)/
  Tailored Arrivals

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10 December 2008                        Administration
Oceanic Modeling Shortfalls
• Oceanic airspace!




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10 December 2008           Administration
Flow Control Modeling Shortfalls

• Ground stops/ground delays
      – Airport constraints (GDPs)
      – Airspace constraints (AFPs)
• Strategic re-routes
      – Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP)
      – Canadian Off-load




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10 December 2008                        Administration
AOC Modeling Shortfalls

• Cancellations
• Ground Delay Program (GDP) response
• Re-routes




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10 December 2008               Administration
Model Use Shortfalls
• Ease of Set-up
• Monte Carlo replication
      – Demand
           • Flight schedules
           • OD pairs
           • Equipment
      –   Aircraft performance
      –   Routings
      –   Capacities/airport configurations
      –   TFM
      –   etc.
• Visualization
• Validation


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10 December 2008                              Administration
                           Questions?




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