International Developments and Evolving Debates on Technology by hcj


									   Higher Education Commission
           Global Developments on Nuclear Electric
                      Power Technology & Pakistan

Dr. Javaid R. Laghari
Higher Education Commission
Electric Power

•   Pakistan has an installed capacity of around
    19,500 MW
•   Energy mix: gas, 48%; hydroelectric, 33%; oil,
    16%; nuclear 2%; and coal, 0.2%
•   Supply drastically low for a multitude of
    reasons leading to intense load-shedding
•   Demand rising at 1,500 MW per year.
    Government has not been able to catch up
    using conventional means
Bottlenecks in producing power

•   Revolving credit
•   Gas shortages
•   Reduced water in reservoirs due to climate
•   Dependence on imported oil
•   Mining of coal
•   Alternate energy (wind, solar) not caught up
    locally yet
Sustainable energy source: nuclear
   15% of the world’s electricity today is produced
    by nuclear power
   31 countries, 440 nuclear power reactors,
    378,000 MW
   Nuclear power capacity worldwide will increase
    to 450,000 MW by 2020, and between 546,000
    to 800,000 MW by 2050
   60 reactors are currently under construction in
    16 countries
Nuclear electric power in the world
(few examples)
   80% in France with 58 reactors
   28% in Japan with 50 reactors (largest in world,
    at 8,212 MW with 7 reactors since 1997)
   28% in South Korea with 21 reactors
   23% in the UK with 19 reactors
   20% in the US with 104 reactors (US leads the
    world with 101,000 MW)
   18% in Russia with 32 reactors
Chinese nuclear power

   Currently 10,200 MW, 14 reactors,
   Expanding to 70,000 MWs by 2020 (26 reactors
    under construction), 200 GW by 2030, and 400
    GW by 2050
   The Chinese with ‘improved technology’ and
    ‘low-cost labour’ have significantly lowered the
    cost of building nuclear power plants
   For the 1,700 MW, the largest in the world, to
    begin at Taishan in 2013 and complete by 2017,
    the cost will be of the order of $1,000/KW,
    comparable to thermal power plants!
Indian nuclear electric power

   21 reactors producing over 7000 MW (950 MW
    commissioned in 2012)
   5 under construction
   Increase to 64,000 MW by 2032 (9% of
    electricity by nuclear power)
Oil rich countries and nuclear
electric power
   UAE has signed a $20 billion agreement with
    South Korea to build 4x1, 400 MW of nuclear
    power plants by 2020
   Iran’s first 1,000-MW at Bushehr completed last
   Iran plans to build 19 more reactors
Pakistan nuclear electric power

   Pakistan produces dismally low 750 MW (including the
    outdated Kanupp (100 MW), and Chashnupp 1 and 2
    (325 MW each)
   Plan to add 10 reactors to increase power to 8800 MW
    by 2030
   Pakistan is technologically advanced in its nuclear
    capabilities and has an indigenous supply of fuel as well
   Can easily improve on its reactor design to make it
    commercially viable
   Limitations: Pakistan is outside the NPT, therefore it is
    largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials,
    which hinders the development of its civil nuclear energy
Concerns on nuclear energy

   Disposal of spent fuel
   Acts of terrorism
   Possible accidents

Solutions exist to all three above in modern
 reactor design
Outsourcing for Peace
 Europeans, Chinese, and South Koreans are outsourcing
  their nuclear technology
 The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement signed in 2005
  will enable India to become a nuclear reactor exporter
  soon, according to a US Congressional Report July 2011.
 According to World Nuclear Association, India is already
  offering its indigenous 220 and 540 MW reactor design
  for export
 It is also following a human-resource-development
  strategy in providing trained manpower for the nuclear
Pakistan should not leave this field uncontested and should
  enter the nuclear energy market (in collaboration with
  partners) by improving on its reactor design
New Sustainable Clean Technologies
   Nuclear Fusion, called the energy of the stars
   Scientists from US, China, the EU, India, Japan, Russia and South
    Korea are collaborating to build the International
    Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the world’s largest
    and most advanced Tokomak fusion nuclear reactor at France
   ITER being designed to produce 500MW of output power for
    50MW of input power by 2019
   Following its success, construction of DEMO will demonstrate
    sustained net energy on commercial scale
   The National Ignition Facility (NIF) at LLNL on March 15, 2012
    using laser-based inertial confinement fusion and established the
    record-breaking energy output of 1.875 MJ from 192 lasers,
    bringing fusion energy, and therefore a clean alternative power
    source, closer to reality
   Researchers at the University of Bologna in January 2011
    demonstrated cold fusion, a claim yet to be verified
The Future

   Pakistan should not remain behind in the peaceful
    nuclear field when the world is rapidly moving
   We should continue to explore and develop new
    technologies for power application
   HEC will assist in providing all scientific
    manpower, state of art equipment and research
    funding to make this dream a reality for Pakistan
Thank you

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