BSPS 29 February Mid-2006 based Subnational Population Projections by yurtgc548


									                    BSPS 29 February
Mid-2006 based Subnational Population
 Projections – Jonathan Swan SPEaQE
• Subnational population projections produced every
    two years
•   Projection by age and sex
•   Projection for every LA in England
•   Based on mid-year estimates
•   Preceded by consultation
•   Cover 25 years i.e. 2006 based go up to 2031
2006 based Timetable
• February 2008 - Calculation of provisional project’s
• 6 March - Start of Consultation
• 17 April - End of Consultation
• April - Analysis of Consultation Responses
   – Reply to responses
• May/June - Final Calculations and QA
• June 2008 - (date tba) Main Publication
• August 21 - Analysis of Accuracy published
• [December 2008 – Earliest date for variants]
Basic Methodology
• Cohort Component Method
   – Pt+1 = Pt + B – D + M
• Trend Based Projections
   – Based on Past Trends
   – Projections not Forecasts
   – Do not take account of policy considerations
• Top Down
   – Components Constrained to National Projections
   – LA as base unit
   – PCOs by proportional allocation
The Consultation
• Part One:
• Consultation on Initial Migration Assumptions
   – Traditionally done every new base year
   – Consultation with Local, Health, and Regional
     Authorities only
   – District Level LA lead.
• Part Two
   – Open to all
• Consultation on Outputs
   – Internet tables / Tables on Request
• Variants
   – Demand and Which variants
   – Methods to be used
Consultation Contents
• Covering Letter
• Methodology Paper
• Criteria for Changing Assumptions and FAQs
• Migration Paper
• Links for Further Information
• Migration Questionnaire
   – Part One response
   – District Level LAs only
   – Unless disagreement when All LAs, PCOs, Regional Organisations
     can also respond
• Part Two Paper and Annexes
   – Responses invited from all
   – Includes list of consultation questions
+ Data dispatch to LAs inc Counties, PCOs, GORs, SHAs
Criteria for accepting change during the
• Consultation is focused on the migration
  assumptions in the first year of projections
• Assumptions are based on recent demographic
  – Internal Migration based on past 5 years data from
    patient register
  – International Migration based on new MYE methods
• Clear evidence required that the level of migration
 is incorrect before projections are adjusted
  – Major one-off change in employment situation
  – Areas with high student populations
  – Consultation paper has more info.
Criteria for accepting change during the
consultation (2)
• Dwelling stock plans will not be considered
   – Unlike GLA, Projections unconstrained by Housing
   – New Housing Estates not directly allowed for
• Inevitable that projections for small areas are prone
 to greater uncertainty
   – Assumptions of fertility and mortality use high quality
     registration data
   – Any RELIABLE migration data will be considered – if it
     shows a different trend
Syndicate Sessions
• As consultation not out - Change to 3 groups
• Modelling Components (Combined group):
   – How can we change migration and natural change components to
     reflect local variation?
   – How can this be done systematically?
   – Can/Should this be related to national variant methods?
• Which Variants Should we do?
   – Which are the most important scenarios?
   – What are the driving needs for variants?
• How can we do a housing constrained variant? (new Group)
   – Which data sources? (Regional plans?)
   – Using what methodology?
   – Relationship between housing and population complex.
Rest of day ..
• Syndicate Session will be followed by feedback.

• Then a chance to discuss issues from the day and
 ask the panel.

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