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Chapter 18 Money, Supply and Money Demand

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Chapter 18  Money, Supply and Money Demand Powered By Docstoc
					Chapter 5: Money Supply
& Money Demand
             Chapter`s Outlines
Definition of money Supply
Supply of Money and Market interest
The Demand for Money, & Three motives for demand for money
Equilibrium in Money Market
Changes in Equilibrium
Money Supply and Liquidity
Friedman’s Challenge to Liquidity Preference
Tools of Monetary policy.
      Meaning of Supply of Money
 According to Keynes supply of money is sum of
  currency issued by Central Bank of a country
  and demand deposits held by the commercial
  banks of a country
 This is called M1 definition of supply of money
  and M1=Cc+ DD
 it means that supply of money is total quantity of
  money circulated in a country
              Supply of Money…..

According to Keynes Ms is fixed in short run and is
 independent of rate of interest
Ms is a control variable as it is determined by central
 monetary authorities of a country
Ms is a vertical line as Ms is independent of rate of
 interest
If Ms increase in a country, than Ms curve shift to the
 right and if Ms decrease in a country than Ms shift to
 the left
               Money Supply Line

The quantity of money in circulation is controlled
by the central bank
  Interest Rate (%)

                       Ms
    10

     5


                      80    Quantity of Money
         The Supply of Money and
    Interest Rates…..
Because the supply of money is controlled by the
 central bank and no one else, we assume that the
 money supply is invariant to the interest rate.
In other words, the supply of money will stay the
 same regardless of whether the interest rate is
 1%, 5% or even more
Thus the money supply curve is a vertical line at
 the current money supply.
        The Market Interest Rate
What determines the equilibrium interest rate in
 financial markets?
A financial market is any market in which
 borrowers and lenders interact
The supply of funds being forwarded by lenders
 and the demand for funds by borrowers
 determines both the quantity of lending/borrowing
 and the interest rate at which these loans are
 made.
      The Market Interest Rate

One way to analyze this market would be to
directly examine the supply and demand for bonds
(loans).

An alternative method would be to examine the
supply and demand for money
             Demand for Money

Demand for money we mean why people keep money in
their pocket or in houses
What are the motives behind holding the money

Three main motives of keeping money
Transaction demand for money
Precautionary demand for money
Speculative demand for money
1    Transaction demand for money
Money is used as a medium of exchange
People keep money for purpose of making daily
transaction i.e. to purchase different goods and services
daily
Mtd depends on time intervals when a person gets income
and when a person spends it
Those countries where credit facilities are common,
transaction demand for money is lower as compared to
those countries where credit facilities are not available
          Transaction demand for money…..

According to Keynes demand for money for transactary
 motives depends on income, it means that Mtd=f (Y)

There exist a positive relationship between Mtd and
 income of consumer

So           Mtd=kY

Where k is the proportion or percentage of income people
 held for transaction purpose
       Transaction demand for money….



 y    Mtd   ky                                            Mtd
 0    5%     0         25
100   5%     5         20
                  ky
200   5%    10         15
300   5%    15         10
400   5%    20         5
500   5%    25
                            0   100   200 300 400   500
                                         y
2     Precautionary demand for money

Both individuals and businessmen keep cash in reserve in
order to meet unexpected needs

Individuals hold some cash to provide for illness,
accidents, unemployment and other unforeseen
contingencies while businessmen keep cash in reserve to
tide over unfavorable conditions

Precautionary demand for money depends on income
level, business activity and so on
3    Speculative Demand for Money

Individuals hold Money for investment in the
financial market

Near money consists of non-monetary, interest-
bearing assets such as stocks and bonds
            Speculative demand for money

According to Keynes, individual could hold wealth in two
 ways i.e. in form of cash and in form of bonds

People purchase bonds and securities for earning profit as
 people purchase bond at low price and sell at high price

Whenever a person keep money for purpose of
 purchasing bonds is known as speculative demand for
 money
      Speculative demand for money…..

Price of bonds are linked with rate of interest and is
negative related with one another

The formula used for finding price of bonds is
         PV=R/ r

Where R=return from bond, r =Market rate of interest
and PV is present value of bond or price of bond
Now if R=10 Af and r=5%
   then PV is 10/0.05         =200

Similarly if R=10 Af and r=10%
   then PV is 10/0.10        =100

So it is expectation about market rate of interest
which determine speculative demand for money
          Speculative demand for money….

If market rate of interest is low,
 bond price in market is high
 and at high bond price people
 will not purchase bond, and        r2
 people will keep more money
 in their pocket for purpose of r1                         Msd =f(r)
 speculation and vice versa
                                         0   Msd1   Msd2
         Total demand for money


Total demand for money is the summation of
transaction demand for money, Precautionary
demand for money and Speculative demand for
money

Mathematically it can be shown as
LT =Mtd +Msd +Mpd
            The Demand for Money and
              Interest Rates

We assume that if you hold your wealth as money,
you earn no interest, while you do earn interest if
you hold your wealth as bonds.

How does your demand for money change when
the interest rate rises?
          The Demand for Money and
           Interest Rates…..
The opportunity cost of each dollar held as money
is the foregone interest that could have been
earned, if you had held that dollar in bonds.
As the interest rate rises, so does the opportunity
cost of money
The quantity of money demanded is inversely
related to the interest rate on bonds.
         Equilibrium in Money Market


Through money supply and money demand we
 can determine equilibrium in money market

In money market, equilibrium point is that point
 where demand for money is equal to supply of
 money
                The Money Market
Nominal
                                  MS
Interest Rate
(i)



          7%




         5%




         3%

                                                        MD

                400             700              1000    Quantity of Money ($
                                                         billions)
                Money Surplus         Money Shortage
         Changes in Equilibrium Interest
               Rates

One of the most useful features of the liquidity
preference framework is that it allows us to see
how changes in the demand and supply of money
affect interest rates.
           Changes in Equilibrium Interest
                 Rates…..

Equilibrium interest rates will increase if there is a…
  – Increase in money demand (+)
  – Decrease in money supply (+)

Equilibrium interest rates will decrease if there is a…
  – Decrease in money demand (-)
  – Increase in money supply (-)
         Shifts in Money Demand
In Keynes original analysis, two things would
 cause the demand for money to change:

1 An Increase in Income/Wealth
  – With more income, people would like to consume more.
    To increase consumption, you need more money.
  – Money demand shifts right, causing interest rates to rise
           Interest Rates Rise when Income Rises
Nominal
                            MS
Interest Rate
(i)



      7%




      5%




                                                 M D2


                                           M D1
                          700     900      Quantity of Money ($
                                           billions)
      Interest Rates Fall when Bonds become less Risky
Nominal
                            MS
Interest Rate
(i)




      5%



      3%


                                            M D1
                                    M D2

                 400      700                Quantity of Money ($
                                             billions)
2 An Increase in Prices
   – With higher prices, the same quantity of money
     held buys fewer goods and services. To
     maintain consumption, people need to hold
     more money.
  Several other reasons can also cause the demand
  curve to shifts like increase in the risk of non-
  monetary assets like bonds, etc
        Shifts in Money Supply
Since the central bank is the sole issuer of money,
any changes in the money supply must come
directly from central bank policy

At its most basic level, an increase in the money
supply is just the central bank printing up more
money, but operationally there are various other
ways to increase and decrease money supply.
Operationally, the central bank changes the
 money supply through three channels
  1   Changing banks reserve requirement
  2   Changing the discount rate at which banks borrow
      from the central bank at.
  3   Buying and selling bonds from the public in exchange
      for money

  These are known as tools of Monetary policy…
           Tools of Monetary Policy

1 Reserve-deposit ratio:
   –      Ratio of cash reserves to deposits that banks are
       required to maintain


  By lowering the ratio, banks will have more
  reserves to lend and invest, increasing the money
  supply
         Tools of Monetary Policy

2 Discount rate:
   – rate of interest the DAB charges on loans to banks

  By lowering the rate, banks encourage borrowing
  from the DAB and lending to the public, increasing
  the money supply
        Tools of Monetary Policy

3 Open Market Operations:
  – DAB purchases and sales of government bonds


  By purchasing bonds and paying the sellers, the
  DAB increases the money supply
Using these tools, the central bank can lower
interest rates by raising the money supply and
increase rates by cutting the money supply.

Note that this analysis only considers the short run
and not the long term consequences of changes
to the money supply.
         Friedman’s Challenge to Liquidity
                Preference
Milton Friedman argued that while Keynes’ analysis was
 technically incorrect, he failed to consider the longer term
 effects of monetary policy.

Friedman argued that increasing the money supply may
 actually cause interest rates to go up!

An increase in the money supply will cause income to rise,
 spurring an increase in money demand and interest rates
                  Cont`d…

An increase in the money supply will stimulate
spending, which will then cause prices to rise.
Higher prices will increase money demand and
raise interest rates.
If the increase in money supply is continuous,
then people will expect higher inflation. This
causes the nominal interest rate to rise.
    Interest Rates and an Increase in the
       Money Supply Growth Rate
So what happens to interest rates if the central bank
increases the rate at which the money supply grows?

The liquidity preference theory argues that interest rates
will decrease as people will hold excess cash balances
– People will try to convert their excess cash into bonds.
– Doing so will increase the number of people offering loans, which
  must push interest rates down.
                 Cont`d….

Friedman’s theory argues an increase in interest
rates as the expansion in the money supply
growth rate will cause income, price levels, and
expected inflation all to rise.
   Expansionary Monetary Policy

Increase the money supply by any one or
combination of the Monetary tools

Reduce the interest rate to encourage investment

Increase employment & income
   Expansionary Monetary Policy

Interest Rate (%)
           (M1/P)s   (M2/P)s




  5
  4

                                (M/P)d

               80 85           Quantity of Money
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posted:7/12/2013
language:English
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Jun Wang Jun Wang Dr
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