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ENSO and Georgias Climate The Impact on Peaches

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ENSO and Georgias Climate The Impact on Peaches Powered By Docstoc
					ENSO and Chill Hours in Georgia
 Peaches; Some Initial Results
  CLIMATE PREDICTION APPLICATIONS SCIENCE WORKSHOP
          9-10 March 2004, Florida State University


        David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.
              State Climatologist
     Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences
           The University of Georgia
            stooks@engr.uga.edu
                 706/583-0156
What does this mean for Peaches?

• Do different ENSO patterns impact the
     date at which critical chill hours are
     reached (number of hours below
     45 F)?

• Is there an increased risk of freeze
     damage associated with different ENSO
     patterns?
                         Day of Year: Last 28 F (Spring), 600 CH, 800 CH, 1000 CH at Atlanta, Georgia 1948-1993


              100




              80




              60




              40
Day of Year




                                                                                                                  ATL 28 F DOY
                                                                                                                  ATL 600 CH DOY
                                                                                                                  ATL 800 CH DOY
              20                                                                                                  ATL 1000 CH DOY




               0
                    45   50      55      60      65      70      75       80      85      90      95



              -20




              -40
                                                        Year
                         Day of Year: Last 28 F (Spring), 600 CH, 800 CH, 1000 CH at Macon, Georgia 1948-1993


              140



              120



              100



              80
Day of Year




                                                                                                                MCN 28 F DOY
                                                                                                                MCN 600 CH DOY
              60
                                                                                                                MCN 800 CH DOY
                                                                                                                MCN 1000 CH DOY

              40



              20



               0
                    45   50      55      60      65     70      75      80      85      90      95


              -20
                                                       Year
                         Day of Year: Last 28 F (Spring), 600 CH, 800 CH, 1000 CH at Auguasta, Georgia 1948-1993


              140



              120



              100



              80
Day of Year




                                                                                                              AGS 28 F DOY
                                                                                                              AGS 600 CH DOY
              60
                                                                                                              AGS 800 CH DOY
                                                                                                              AGS 1000 CH DOY

              40



              20



               0
                    45    50      55      60      65      70      75      80      85     90      95


              -20
                                                         Year
                         Day of Year: Last 28 F (Spring), 600 CH, 800 CH, 1000 CH at Savannah, Georgia 1948-1993


              140




              120




              100




              80
Day of Year




                                                                                                              SAV 28 F DOY
                                                                                                              SAV 600 CH DOY
                                                                                                              SAV 800 CH DOY
              60                                                                                              SAV 1000 CH DOY




              40




              20




               0
                    45    50      55      60      65      70      75      80      85     90      95
                                                         Year
                          Last Spring 28F and 600-800-1000 Chill Hours for
                       La Nina, Neutral, El Nino Climate Patterns for Atlanta, GA


              80



              70



              60



              50
Day of Year




              40



              30



              20



              10



              0
                   1                     2                             3            4
                                       Last 28F, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino
                            Last Spring 28F and 600-800-1000 Chill Hours for
                       La Nina, Neutral, and El Nino Climate Patterns for Macon, GA


              90


              80


              70


              60
Day of Year




              50


              40


              30


              20


              10


              0
                   1                      2                              3            4
                                         Last 28F, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino
                           Last Spring 28F and 600-800-1000 Chill Hours for
                       La Nina, Neutral, El Nino Climate Patterns for Augusta, GA


              80



              70



              60



              50
Day of Year




              40



              30



              20



              10



              0
                   1                     2                              3           4
                                        Last 28F, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino
                             Last Spring 28F and 600-800-1000 Chill Hours for
                        La Nina, Neutral, El Nino Climate Patterns for Savannah, GA


              120




              100




              80
Day of Year




              60




              40




              20




               0
                    1                      2                             3            4
                                          Last 28F, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino
Conclusions

• There has been no trend in the date at
 which critical chill hours are reached

• There is no trend in the date of the last
 28F in the spring
ENSO Conclusions
• The Winter Climate Pattern Determines When Critical
  Chill Hours are Reached

• Chill Hours are Reached Earlier during Neutral and El
  Nino Climate Pattern Winters

• No relationship between ENSO and Date of the Last 28F

• Increased Risk of Late Freeze
  Damage during Neutral and El Nino
  Climate Pattern Winters

				
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