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					                                                                                                                Commodities Research
                                                                                                                                  10 May 2013


Commodities Weekly
Muted moves
                                                                                           Overview                                             3


                                                                                           Energy
                                                                                           Market Outlook                                       6
                                                                                           Oil: Tight oil drilling – full throttle until the
                                                                                           speed bumps                                         10

                                                                                           Metals
                                                                                           Market Outlook                                      14
                                                                                           Precious metals: Platinum Week - PGMs set to
                                                                                           remain in deficit                         19


                                                                                           Commodity Price Forecasts                           22
• Monday marks the start of Platinum Week. We retain positive views on platinum
   and palladium and expect both markets to return deficits this year. We believe          Commodity Price Comparisons                         23
   platinum offers the most upside potential in the near term given auto demand in
   Europe is expected to decline at a slower pace in H2 13; but, more important,           Trade Recommendations                               24
   biennial wage negotiations are set to take place over the coming weeks.
                                                                                           Key Data Releases                                   26
• The rally in base metals has mainly been in copper, and to a lesser extent
   aluminium, reflecting the size of short positioning in those markets as well as the     FX Forecasts                                        27
   more encouraging fundamental signals in the case of copper. We think there is
   further upside for copper with market positioning still short and positive demand
   signals from China, and we would look for prices to rise to the mid-to-high
   $7,000s before restabilising shorts.

• Preliminary China commodity trade data showed China’s imports were mixed in
   April, with energy imports trending modestly higher but base metals imports
   grinding lower. With fuel stocks smaller by the end of April, and oil demand
   getting an uplift from the beginning of the driving season, China’s oil demand is       Editors:
                                                                                           Suki Cooper
   likely to resume a steady, though gradual, pickup in the coming months.
                                                                                           suki.cooper@barclays.com

Energy                                                                                     Sudakshina Unnikrishnan
Tight oil drilling – full throttle until the speed bumps                             10    sudakshina.unnikrishnan@barclays.com
While the improvement in drilling efficiency gains across some key tight oil plays is
meritorious and contributes directly to the current surge in tight oil production, there   www.barclays.com
are growing risks of this momentum approaching inflection points in the future
(depending on rig availability) at which steep decline rates start to offset these
efficiency gains.

Metals
Platinum Week: PGMs set to remain in deficit                                         19
We expect South Africa’s mine supply-side challenges, auto-catalyst recycling and
European demand weakness to be the dominant themes of Platinum Week, but we
continue to forecast both platinum and palladium markets to be in deficit this year.



PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 28
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


OVERVIEW

                                    Muted moves
Sudakshina Unnikrishnan             Commodity prices posted muted, albeit broad-based, gains this week on positive sentiment
+44 (0)20 7773 3797                 spurred by supportive macro-data flow in the form of a stronger-than-expected US
sudakshina.unnikrishnan             employment report and higher-than-expected German factory orders and industrial
@barclays.com                       production. Brent prices firmed but we maintain our view that there is not yet enough
                                    momentum in the benchmark to power a complete retracement to the familiar range
                                    around $111/bbl with positive macro-data likely to only support prices at current levels at
                                    best, rather than propel a complete upward retracement with demand for prompt cargoes
                                    of light grade crudes continuing to be muted on the physical market.

                                    The rally in base metals has mainly been in copper, and to a lesser extent aluminium,
                                    reflecting the size of short positioning in those markets as well as the more encouraging
                                    fundamental signals in the case of copper. Nickel, lead and zinc have largely missed out of
                                    the move with shorts feeling little need to cover in some cases and in others like lead, a lack
                                    of positioning and fundamental signals playing a part. We think there is further upside for
                                    copper with market positioning still short and positive demand signals from China, and we
                                    would look for prices to rise to the mid-to-high $7,000s before restabilising shorts. Precious
                                    metals prices have stabilised and slowly edged higher. The physical market has greeted the
                                    lower gold price environment with enthusiasm. Bar premiums across Asia remain high while
                                    gold imports into China from Hong Kong reached a record 223.5 tonnes in March, more
                                    than doubling m/m and almost doubling the previous record set in December last year. In
                                    contrast, ETP outflows show little signs of slowing. Gold holdings are down 37 tonnes
                                    month-to-date, following a record outflow of 182 tonnes in April and total holdings are at
                                    their lowest since October 2011. ETP outflows remain the key downside risk to gold prices
                                    in the near term, in our view.

Platinum Week’s dominant            Monday marks the start of Platinum Week. We expect platinum and palladium to deliver
themes are likely to be South       deficits in 2013 and to remain in deficit in 2014 as the challenging mine supply backdrop
Africa’s mine supply                overshadows the modest recovery in demand anticipated for later in the year. Although we
challenges, auto-catalyst           do not expect production losses of the magnitude suffered last year, the third-largest
recycling and European              platinum producer, Lonmin, has highlighted that the workforce representation of the more
demand weakness                     radical union, the AMCU, has risen to 70% from less than 10% at the start of last year.
                                    Further, Lonmin has suffered furnace outages. Although the largest platinum producer,
                                    Anglo American Platinum, has scaled back its restructuring proposal, strong investment
                                    demand growth has almost surpassed our original estimate of production to be removed
                                    this year of 217koz. The newly launched physically backed ETF in South Africa has recorded
                                    fresh demand exceeding 190koz. Collectively, platinum ETP holdings are at a fresh record
                                    high, surpassing 2Moz. Yet, the platinum price has yet to meaningfully break above
                                    $1500/oz, suggesting that underlying fabrication demand remains weak or stock levels are
                                    healthy. We retain positive views on platinum and palladium and expect both markets to
                                    return deficits this year. We believe platinum offers the most upside potential in the near
                                    term given auto demand in Europe is expected to decline at a slower pace in H2 13; but,
                                    more important, biennial wage negotiations are set to take place over the coming weeks.

Improved drilling efficiency        Much of the growth in US tight oil production has come from geological formations in North
across key tight oil plays; but     Dakota and Texas – oil from these formations does not rise to the top cheaply or easily as
where does the inflection point     we detail in depth in our oil focus piece this week. These are unconventional barrels, and the
lie at which steep decline rates    associated plays are indeed unconventional in an oil-drilling context. While advances have
start to offset efficiency gains?   been made in understanding the underlying geology, it remains inherently difficult and
                                    varies markedly from play to play, meaning generalised assumptions on drilling wells in


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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                these fields cannot be made. Because of this, standardising technology becomes much less
                                straightforward as the optimal requirements may differ for each different play. Much of the
                                technology, though used already for natural gas extraction, remains expensive, complex
                                and in need of adaptation for liquids exploration and production. A measure of how well
                                understood a certain field’s geology may be is the 30-day initial production (IP) rate for a
                                new well. As the understanding increases, on average, so does this rate. As an example, a
                                prominent company in the unconventional space has increased IP rates more than 135%
                                since 2009. By building a deeper and richer knowledge of the geology, the most fertile spots
                                can be tackled with the most appropriate technology. Drilling efficiency is also experiencing
                                welcome improvements. A measure of this is the average number of days in which a rig
                                completes a well to the total agreed depth from initial well drilling. Time to well completion
                                has been decreasing yearly for the past half decade; in some instances, total drilling times
                                have been cut in half. Production can thus increase via the same number of, or often even
                                fewer, rigs. Gains in efficiency are due primarily to recently improved technology and
                                extraction methodologies. Drilling mobility has increased by the development of so-called
                                walking rigs, which have 360 degrees of mobility, while traditional rigs can only move in
                                straight lines. This mobility is of great use in another sizeable technological development –
                                multi-well pad drilling – which means more than one horizontal well is drilled at a single
                                location (pad), maximising the below-the-surface reach, while reducing the above-ground
                                footprint. Combined with improved seismic imaging and computation modelling of decline
                                rates and underlying geology, these technological advances allow for more intensive drilling
                                programmes to be carried out more efficiently and at lower average cost per well.

                                While we can probably expect more productivity gains, we feel the rate at which they will
                                come through will likely see diminishing returns as the largest leaps in advancement are
                                likely to fade. Combined with this, the fact that producers are focusing on the most fertile
                                fields and easy-to-access regions first implies that the remaining terrains already pose the
                                challenge of diminished productivity. Overall, we expect the highest growth momentum in
                                tight oil production to likely fade over the next two years with growth expected to
                                decelerate beyond 2015.

A mixed set of preliminary      Finally, this week marked the release of the preliminary China commodity trade data. China’s
China commodity April trade     commodity imports were mixed in April, with energy imports trending modestly higher but
data                            base metals imports grinding lower. Crude oil imports rose 4% y/y to 5.63 mb/d in April,
                                reversing two months of y/y declines. Import growth has softened from the levels seen last
                                year, as refiners have built large product stocks and refineries entered turnaround in April and
                                May. Product imports jumped to 910 kb/d, up 24% m/m and 28% y/y, likely due to higher
                                teapot utilisation rates in the month that pushed up fuel oil imports. Exports were higher at
                                660 kb/d, resulting in net imports of 250 kb/d. Robust exports likely indicate continued
                                gasoline and diesel exports in April, as refiners cut inventory. With fuel stocks smaller by the
                                end of April, and oil demand getting an uplift from the beginning of the driving season, China’s
                                oil demand is likely to resume a steady, though gradual, pickup in the coming months.

                                In metals, China’s unwrought copper and semi imports fell 7% m/m and 21% y/y to 296Kt in
                                April, continuing the grind down from last year’s highs. Contracted tonnages for 2013 have
                                fallen by an estimated 10-20%, while spot material may have been diverted to a number of
                                LME warehouses offering incentives for depositing the metal. While spot import arb opened in
                                late February, imports have not yet shown a commensurate increase, and spot premiums have
                                more than doubled in three months. Copper scrap imports fell 3% y/y to 340kt, below five-
                                year lows for the month of April. Tight scrap supply due to lower copper prices and tougher
                                customs inspections has prompted some smelters to cut output in late April.




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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


WEEK IN REVIEW
                                Commodities publications released this week:


                                Cross Commodities
                                China key commodities trade: Soft expansion
                                China's commodity imports were mixed in April, with energy imports trending modestly
                                higher but base metals imports grinding lower. Soft expansion of economic activities
                                continued.


                                Metals
                                Gold Delta: Gold ETP outflows continue after hitting a monthly record in April
                                Gold prices fluctuated around the $1460/oz level last week as April gold ETP net outflows
                                reached a monthly record. While prices rose after the ECB rate cut, they ended the week
                                roughly flat after Friday's US employment report. Although ETP outflows continued to put
                                pressure on prices, coin sales remained strong in April. In our view, the vulnerability of
                                further ETP outflows subsides should prices recover to above $1500/oz; however, we
                                continue to believe ETP outflows remain a key downside risk in the near term.




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Barclays | Commodities Weekly




                                Energy




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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK

                                 No full retracement just yet for crude oil; Gas
                                 in the midst of shoulder season lull
                                 • We expect a short-term decline in crude appetite as NW Europe and Med refineries
                                     gear towards cutting runs temporarily, though an improvement is expected as the
                                     tail-end of Q2 approaches.

                                 • Natural gas prices dipped below $4/MMBtu last week and remained close to that
                                     level over the past few days, as the shoulder season lull is in full swing.


                                 Crude oil: price retracement in sight, but not just yet
Miswin Mahesh                    Brent remained above $104/bbl this week with a slight pick-up in intraday volatility. We
+44 (0)20 7773 4291              maintain our view that there is not yet enough momentum in the benchmark to power a
miswin.mahesh@barclays.com       complete retracement to the familiar range around $111/bbl. While the macro-environment
                                 has turned positive with upside surprises in data seen this week from Germany, Australia
Afonso Campos                    and the US, this is likely to only support prices at current levels at best, rather than propel a
+44 (0)20 3555 4444              complete upward retracement. This is because, on the physical markets, demand for
afonso.campos@barclays.com       prompt cargoes of light grade crudes continues to be muted.

                                 Refinery margins remain under pressure with European refineries that emerge from
                                 turnaround season widely expected to reduce utilisation rates. Simple refineries in North
Pressurised margins in NWE       West Europe (especially in the UK) have already started cutting runs. Margins in the
and Med lead to temporary run    Mediterranean are worse and run cuts are expected there as well. Although margins have
cuts                             bounced back slightly over the last three days, the return of refineries in Asia over June is
                                 something that is looked out for in the direction of margins. Although refineries in the
                                 Pacific are largely still under maintenance, there is also a likelihood that they could possibly
                                 delay their return or come online and operate at lower utilisation rates.


                                 FIGURE 1
                                 Europe/Africa refinery outages: return from maintenance but vulnerable to run cuts, mb/d
                                   5.5
                                                              Average (2009-2012)                  2012              2013
                                   5.0
                                                                              Imminent run cuts on poor margins?
                                   4.5

                                   4.0

                                   3.5

                                   3.0

                                   2.5

                                   2.0
                                         Jan   Feb     Mar     Apr      May    Jun    Jul    Aug     Sep   Oct     Nov   Dec
                                 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research


Large reductions in refinery     Until then, while run cuts, especially in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, are
utilisation unlikely to follow   imminent and expected to limit the appetite for prompt crude (eg. three unsold Angolan
through globally in late Q2      cargoes in June( , we do not expect a large volume of run cuts to follow through globally
                                 given that:


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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                          1.   There is still some flexibility with regards to adjusting crude slates and processing sour
                                               grades to produce more fuel oil. This remains an attractive option to exercise given
                                               relatively attractive margins for producing residuals, compared with processing light
                                               sweet crude and producing distillates, where margins remain depressed.

                                          2.   Refineries must fulfil term obligations for refined products delivery, especially given that
                                               seasonal summer requirements are only about to begin.

Healthy naphtha demand                    Looking forward, however, there are some positive indications for demand to look out for
expected to come from Asia                over the tail end of Q2, as naphtha demand picks up in Asia. In this context, we highlight the
                                          activity of China’s biggest independent petrochemical producer (Dragon Aromatics). The
                                          new complex consists of an 800 kt/year paraxylene (PX) facility and 4 mt/year condensate
                                          splitter. Recent statements from the company suggest the plant is expected to reach a
                                          commercial operational level by end-June (the plant was originally supposed to start mid-
                                          2012). The complex is expected to secure feedstock from the spot market over Q3
                                          (Reuters) and this could coincide with a pickup in activity across the region, helping light
                                          grades in general.

Brent price retracement                   Beyond the short-term weakness in crude until the tail end of Q2, we continue to expect a
expected towards end of Q2 as             retracement for prices going into the tail end of Q2 only, with Brent expected to resume
global demand picks up pace               range-bound trading at about $111/bbl. This will coincide with global oil demand
                                          surpassing 90 mb/d for the first time in history, with non-OECD demand exceeding OECD
                                          demand. In terms of demand growth, we expect upside surprises in the Atlantic (Latin
                                          America) and the Pacific (smaller non-OECD Asia Pacific countries), while China is expected
                                          to grow a moderate 5%. This positive turnaround is already largely reflected in this week’s
                                          OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report with the organisation lifting the call on its own crude by
                                          100 thousand b/d to 29.8 mb/d, in line with our expectations: OPEC production expected to
                                          rebound in late Q2


FIGURE 2                                                                 FIGURE 3
Ultra low Sulfur Diesel crack spread, $/bbl                              3.5% Fuel Oil Rotterdam –Brent crack spread, $/bbl
 41                                                                        -9

 39                                                                       -10
 37
                                                                          -11
 35
                                                                          -12
 33
                                                                          -13
 31
                                                                          -14
 29
                                                                          -15
 27

 25                                                                       -16

 23                                                                       -17
  Jan-13          Feb-13         Mar-13        Apr-13      May-13           Jan-13         Feb-13          Mar-13   Apr-13       May-13
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research                                     Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research




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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                Natural gas: Shoulder season lull
Shiyang Wang                    Natural gas prices dipped below $4/MMBtu last week and remained close to that level in
+1 212 526 7464                 the past few days, as the shoulder season lull is in full swing. Indeed, heating and cooling
shiyang.wang@barclays.com       demand will be very low for the next couple of weeks. Furthermore, the storage injection for
                                the week ending on 3 May came in at a healthy 88 Bcf, 2 Bcf/d higher than consensus
                                expectations. With that, the deficit to last year’s storage level fell by 58 Bcf to stand at 737
                                Bcf. This narrowing is partially due to very mild weather for the week in reference. However,
                                the accelerated pace of injections also suggests that fundamentals have become looser on a
                                weather-adjusted basis in the past two weeks, likely reflecting a drop in gas-fired generation
                                as the displacement of coal wanes at current gas prices.

                                As the front of the curve has come off on the week, a slight contango was reintroduced to
                                the shape of the forward curve. While the upside risks to the back end of the curve could be
                                limited in the short term due to producer hedging, we believe there are several upside
                                demand factors that the market has not yet priced in. In the near term, the market should
                                await the DOE’s decision to approve more LNG export licenses to non-FTA countries in the
                                next few months. Although the outcome remains difficult to predict, President Obama
                                recently stated that the US is likely to be a net gas exporter by 2020 (Financial Times).

                                Our balances suggest that current prices will be sufficient to dampen coal-to-gas
                                displacement significantly and allow for inventories to rebuild to 3.9 Tcf by the end of
                                October. Meanwhile, nuclear generation has underperformed our projections, and hydro
                                generation indicators for the summer remain weak. We had expected the spring
                                maintenance season to not be as deep as last year’s, leaving significantly more capacity
                                running. In contrast, nuclear generation has been only about 100 MW higher y/y since
                                March, nearly flat to last year’s levels. This is largely due to unplanned outages and longer-
                                than-expected maintenance outages. For hydro generation, water supply at the Dalles Dam
                                on the Columbia River is forecast to be 94% of normal for the April-to-September period,
                                much lower than the 134% of normal in 2012.




10 May 2013                                                                                                                    8
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


Key price charts
FIGURE 3                                                                         FIGURE 4
Oil: Front-month Brent and WTI ($/bbl)                                           Oil: Brent forward curve ($/bbl)
130
                                                                                  130
                                                    WTI            Brent          125
                                                                                                                                   Range in 2012
119                                                                               120                                              Two months ago
                                                                                  115                                              One month ago
108                                                                               110                                              09-May-13

                                                                                  105
  97                                                                              100
                                                                                    95

  86                                                                                90
                                                                                    85
                                                                                                                  Years to expiry
                                                                                    80
  75
                                                                                         1        2          3          4      6          7         8
   May-12      Jul-12      Sep-12     Nov-12     Jan-13    Mar-13 May-13
Source: Reuters, Barclays Research                                               Source: Barclays Research

FIGURE 5                                                                         FIGURE 6
Oil: Front-month Brent (€/bbl) and ICE Gasoil (€/ton)                            Oil: Front-month ICE Gasoil crack ($/bbl)
                        Brent (LHS)            Gasoil (RHS)                       23
 97                                                                        800
 94                                                                               21
 91
                                                                           750
 88                                                                               19

 85
                                                                           700    17
 82

 79                                                                               15

 76                                                                        650
                                                                                  13
 73

 70                                                                   600         11
  May-12      Jul-12      Sep-12      Nov-12    Jan-13    Mar-13 May-13            May-12      Jul-12    Sep-12       Nov-12   Jan-13    Mar-13     May-13
Source: Reuters, Barclays Research                                               Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

FIGURE 7                                                                         FIGURE 8
US natural gas: Henry hub ($/MMbtu)                                              US natural gas: Forward curve ($/MMbtu)
4.50                                                                             4.70


4.25
                                                                                 4.50
4.00


3.75                                                                             4.30


3.50
                                                                                 4.10
3.25                                                                                                                    5/8/2013           5/2/2012
                                      Prompt         Cash
3.00                                                                             3.90
   Dec-12        Jan-13        Feb-13      Mar-13         Apr-13     May-13         Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15
Source: Reuters, Barclays Research                                               Source: Reuters, Barclays Research




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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


FOCUS: OIL

                                             Tight oil drilling – full throttle until the
                                             speed bumps
Miswin Mahesh                                While the improvement in drilling efficiency gains across some key tight oil plays is
+44 (0)20 7773 4291                          meritorious and contributes directly to the current surge in tight oil production, there are
miswin.mahesh@barclays.com                   growing risks of this momentum approaching inflection points in the future (depending on
                                             rig availability) at which steep decline rates start to offset these efficiency gains.
Afonso Campos
                                             The surge in US tight oil production has reached 2 mb/d; we expect it to reach 2.8 mb/d by
+44 (0)20 3555 4444
                                             2015 and 3.1 mb/d by 2020. This is noteworthy given that just five years ago 500 thousand
afonso.campos@barclays.com
                                             b/d had barely been breached. Much of this growth has come from geological formations in
                                             North Dakota and Texas.

Unconventional drilling still                Oil from these formations does not rise to the top cheaply or easily. These are unconventional
faces some technological                     barrels, and the associated plays are indeed gearing up for unconventional experiments for
challenges                                   efficiency in an oil-drilling context. While advances have been made in understanding the
                                             underlying geology, it remains inherently difficult and varies markedly from play to play, meaning
                                             generalised assumptions on drilling wells in these fields cannot be made. Because of this,
                                             standardising technology becomes much less straightforward as the optimal requirements may
                                             differ for each different play (from drilling vertically through various stacked tight formations in
                                             the Permian Basin, to more horizontal wells in the Williston Basin).

Technology is paramount in                   Much of the technology, though used already for natural gas extraction, remains expensive,
rendering some tight oil plays               complex and in need of adaptation for liquids exploration and production. These tight oil
economic                                     formations are especially dependent on emerging technology and advances to achieve
                                             economies of scale that can make or break the economics of a play. In other words, these
                                             technology improvements although involving significant upfront financial and research
                                             commitments, are in a sense contributing to the much needed improvement in volumes that
                                             eventually bring economies of scale to these plays. As a result, this follows through the order
                                             that, these developments are helping to access portions of reserves that would have been
                                             inaccessible otherwise at a cost that is reasonable and compatible with official selling prices for
                                             different crudes, and keeping with a company’s mandate to return value to shareholders.



FIGURE 1                                                                     FIGURE 2
30 Day IP rate for an Eagle Ford producer, b/d                               Days from spud to well completion for Eagle Ford producer

1,200                                                                         25         2009         2010          2011    2012        2013

1,100

1,000                                                                         20

  900
                                                                              15
  800

  700
                                                                              10
  600

  500                                                                          5

  400
     2009            2010            2011           2012          2013         0
Source: Company reports, Barclays Research                                   Source: Company reports, Barclays Research


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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                             Much of the difficulty in extracting oil from these unconventional plays is that the resource
                                             lies between nearly impermeable and closely packed formations of shale and other minerals
                                             – hence the term “tight”. Over the past four or five years, producers’ knowledge of the
                                             geology in their core plays has advanced immensely, yet, broadly speaking, it is still far from
                                             the level of knowledge acquired over decades of conventional drilling, and thus remains
                                             expensive and uncertain.

                                             Richer insights
Investments into tight oil have             The time, monetary and R&D investment flows into unconventional drilling methods and
yielded positive results                    survey methodologies have certainly yielded results. A measure of how well understood a
                                            certain field’s geology may be is the 30-day initial production (IP) rate for a new well. As the
                                            understanding increases, on average, so does this rate. Over time, IP in a majority of tight oil
                                            plays greatly improves. As an example, a prominent company in the unconventional space
                                            has increased IP rates more than 135% since 2009 (Figure 1). While this is in the Eagle Ford
                                            region, the trend reflects what is being experienced in other plays and basins, though the
                                            absolute numbers will understandably differ. By building a deeper and richer knowledge of
                                            the geology, the most fertile spots can be tackled with the most appropriate technology.

                                             Efficiency gains
Significant increases in drilling           Drilling efficiency is also experiencing welcome improvements. A measure of this is the average
efficiency witnessed recently               number of days in which a rig completes a well to the total agreed depth from initial spudding (a
                                            spud is the very first stage of drilling a well). Time to well completion has been decreasing yearly
                                            for the past half decade; in some instances, total drilling times have been cut in half (Figure 2).
                                            Production can thus increase via the same number of, or often even fewer, rigs.

                                             In North Dakota, the previously linear relationship between average rig count and number
                                             of spuds started in a particular month has broken down. This has been especially noticeable
                                             since the summer of 2011, from when the number of spuds and average daily production
                                             kept increasing but the number of rigs stalled or even decreased on occasion. Year-on-year
                                             to February, there has been a 38% increase in the number of spuds, a 39% increase in
                                             production, but a 9.4% decrease in the number of active rigs operating in the state (Figure
                                             3). This relationship and the gains in drilling efficiency in North Dakota are mirrored across
                                             the other basins. Though spudding data are less widely available, a look at the total number
                                             of rigs in the US and daily production renders similar results. In fact, since July 2012, US
                                             crude production has increased about 12% to 7.2 mb/d, while the total number of oil rigs in
                                             operation has decreased 9% (Figure 4).


FIGURE 3                                                                        FIGURE 4
North Dakota spuds, rig count and oil production                                US crude production and total oil rigs in operation
350                                                                       800   7.2                                                           1600
                Spuds, number (LHS)
                                                                                                  US crude production, mb/d (LHS)
300             Average rig count, number (LHS)                           700                                                                 1400

                ND Production, thousand b/d (RHS)                               6.7               Total oil rigs, number (RHS)                1200
250                                                                       600
                                                                                                                                              1000
200                                                                       500
                                                                                6.2                                                           800
150                                                                       400
                                                                                                                                              600
100                                                                       300
                                                                                5.7                                                           400

 50                                                                       200                                                                 200

   0                                                                      100   5.2                                                            0
       07       08        09        10         11        12        13             Feb-09          Feb-10          Feb-11         Feb-12   Feb-13
Source: North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, Barclays Research         Source: DOE, Smith Bits, Barclays Research




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Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                             These gains in efficiency are due primarily to recently improved technology and extraction
                                             methodologies. Climbing the steep learning curve in geology has led to the development of
                                             technologies and infrastructure they are more suited for the formations producers are
                                             targeting. For instance, tight oil formations that rely more on horizontal wells have been
                                             able to increase the length of the lateral, allowing for a large cross-section of the area to be
                                             exposed to production.

Development of new                           Drilling mobility has increased by the development of so-called walking rigs, which have 360
technologies is ongoing and                  degrees of mobility, while traditional rigs can only move in straight lines. Walking rigs can
crucial                                      now be moved at the rather swift pace of 30 feet/hour, which is a sharp reduction not only
                                             in moving time, because rigs no longer need to be disassembled and then re-rigged in the
                                             new location, but also in cost.

                                             This mobility is of great use in another sizeable technological development – multi-well pad
                                             drilling. Simply, this means that more than one horizontal well is drilled at a single location
                                             (pad), maximising the below-the-surface reach while reducing the above-ground footprint.
                                             Given that several wells are being drilled on one site, permitting issues become less of a
                                             concern: each well needs independent approval based on geology and location, so given
                                             their proximity, the likelihood of acceptance increases. The added mobility also means that
                                             pad-to-pad movements are simpler and incur less environmental and capital expense.

Advances in tight oil extraction             Combined with improved seismic imaging and computation modelling of decline rates and
have led to lower average                    underlying geology, these technological advances allow for more intensive drilling
costs of production                          programmes to be carried out more efficiently and at lower average cost per well. These are
                                             just some of the improvements taking place on the efficiency front, with gains also coming
                                             from producers consolidating their acreage in a specific contiguous geography, as opposed
                                             to a dispersed set of smaller-sized leases. The consolidation helps gain economies of scale
                                             on equipment used, as well as in the mobility of production crews.

                                             While we can probably expect more productivity gains, we feel the rate at which they will come
                                             through will likely see diminishing returns as the largest leaps in advancement are likely to fade.
                                             Combined with this, the fact that producers are focusing on the most fertile fields and easy-to-
                                             access regions first implies that the remaining terrains already pose the challenge of diminished
                                             productivity. Overall, we expect the highest growth momentum in tight oil production to likely
                                             fade over the next two years with growth expected to decelerate beyond 2015.


FIGURE 5                                                                    FIGURE 6
Sample type curves for tight oil plays in ND and TX, b/d                    Current well yields for a prominent unconventional producer
                                                                            show focus is currently on oil-rich plays
 500                                                                         100%                           Oil    Gas   NGLs

                              Eagle Ford          Bakken
 400                                                                          80%


 300                                                                          60%


 200                                                                          40%


 100                                                                          20%


                                month
    0                                                                          0%
        1      4        7      10       13      16     19      22                          Bakken / Threeforks                  Eagle Ford
Source: Company reports, Barclays Research                                  Source: Company reports, Barclays Research


10 May 2013                                                                                                                                  12
Barclays | Commodities Weekly




                                Metals




10 May 2013                          13
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


METALS MARKET OUTLOOK

                                           Supply challenges dominate PGMs, short-
                                           covering copper rally likely still has legs
                                           • We think there is further upside to the short-covering rally in base metals with
                                                market positioning still short and positive demand signals from China. We would
                                                look for copper prices to rise above $7,500s before restabilising shorts.

                                           • While gold prices face slowing physical demand and persistent ETP outflows, the
                                                market focus is now shifting to PGMs ahead of Platinum Week, where supply
                                                challenges continue to dominate.


                                           Base metals: Short-covering copper rally likely still has legs
Gayle Berry                                Across the base metals complex this week, short-covering has dominated price dynamics.
+44 (0)20 3134 1596                        In the context of extreme CTA short positioning, a stronger-than-expected US employment
gayle.berry@barclays.com                   report alongside a surge in German factory orders for March combined to act as catalysts
                                           to fuel the move in prices. For copper, this supported a move higher by as much as 10%
Nicholas Snowdon                           from last week’s lows, putting it firmly back above $7,000/t. We think there is further
+1 212 526 7279                            upside to this move with market positioning still short and positive demand signals from
nicholas.snowdon@barclays.com              China. We would look for prices to rise above $7,500 before restabilising shorts.

                                           From a fundamental perspective, stock trends have been turning more positive. LME stocks
                                           have levelled out, as we had expected, SHFE and Chinese bonded stocks are falling. SHFE
                                           stocks fell a chunky 18.7Kt today and bonded stocks are around 650Kt, down from 800Kt at
                                           the beginning of the year. Other indicators of Chinese demand are also positive, physical
                                           premiums are high, SHFE time spreads are in backwardation, the import arb is still open and
                                           data on end-use activity in some sectors have continued to improve.

                                           Interestingly, this rally has mainly been in copper, and to a lesser extent aluminium,
                                           reflecting the size of short positioning in those markets and also the more encouraging
                                           fundamental signals in the case of copper. Nickel, lead and zinc have largely missed out on
                                           the move, with shorts felling little need to cover in some cases and in others, like lead a lack



FIGURE 1                                                                  FIGURE 2
April data showed Chinese copper imports falling to their                 … despite ongoing signals of tightening in the Chinese
lowest levels since June 2011…                                            market in Q2 so far and support for higher imports

       Kt               Unwrought copper import                             $/t              Shanghai import copper premium
 600                                                                      140
                             5yr range         2012       2013            130
 500                                                                      120
                                                                          110
 400
                                                                          100
                                                                           90
 300
                                                                           80
                                                                           70
 200
                                                               months      60
 100                                                                       50
       12   1    2     3    4     5    6   7    8     9   10    11   12    40
                                                                            Jul-12        Sep-12       Nov-12    Jan-13   Mar-13   May-13
Source: China Customs, Barclays Research                                  Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

10 May 2013                                                                                                                             14
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                of positioning and fundamental signals playing a part.

                                Preliminary Chinese trade data for April were soft with base effects exacerbating the y/y
                                falls. Copper unwrought and semis imports fell 7% m/m and 21% y/y, respectively, to
                                296Kt in April, continuing the grind down from last year’s highs. Contracted tonnages for
                                2013 have fallen an estimated 10-20%, while spot material may have been diverted to a
                                number of LME warehouses offering incentives for depositing the metal. Copper scrap
                                imports fell 3% y/y to 340kt, below five-year lows for the month of April. Tight scrap supply
                                due to lower copper prices and tougher customs inspections prompted some smelters to
                                cut output in late April.

                                On the copper mine supply side, there were several developments of note over the past
                                week. First, Rio Tinto stated that it expects final approvals from the Mongolian government
                                to start shipments from its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in the next few weeks. This follows
                                protracted negotiations between the two parties that had raised concerns about the project
                                timeline. The mine is expected to produce 70Kt this year before ramping up to close to
                                200Kt by 2015. Second, union workers in Chile announced that early negotiations have
                                begun regarding the labour contract at Collahuasi mine (275Kt output in 2012), which
                                expires in January 2014. The mine’s production is expected to recover this year to
                                potentially as high as 400Kt. Finally, Barrick Gold and Antofagasta announced they have
                                given up on their Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan, citing the fractious political
                                environment in Baluchistan as the key reason for cancelling the project; $200mn had
                                already been spent on the project development, and at one point, it had been estimated the
                                mine could produce as much as 200Kty copper concentrate.

                                In terms of other metals, perhaps the most interesting developments have been in the nickel
                                market. First, the pressure from lower LME prices has led to some mine closures. Norilsk Nickel
                                announced that it closed its 9Kty Lake Johnston mine in Australia due to lower prices. Xstrata
                                also announced that it is closing its 7Kty Sinclair mine in Australia, though it cited ore
                                depletion as the key factor. Second, pressure from lower prices appears less telling in China in
                                the nickel pig iron sector. There has been little evidence of any large-scale cutbacks in the NPI
                                sector, which is keeping the Chinese nickel market firmly in surplus. We believe there are a
                                couple of factors at play there. In some provinces, most prominently Inner Mongolia, power
                                subsidies have been provided to the sector through at least the end of June. In addition, given
                                the lower ore prices and increasing role of lower-cost RKEF NPI capacity, average production
                                costs in the sector have continued to decline. Average RKEF NPI costs are now less than
                                $14,000/t. Despite reasonable domestic stainless demand in Q2 so far, stocks have continued
                                to build right along the supply chain from ore to stainless products.

                                Precious metals: Gold stabilises, but PGMs edge higher ahead
                                of Platinum Week
Suki Cooper                     After the heightened volatility, prices have stabilised across the complex and have slowly
+1 212 526 7896                 edged higher. The stability bodes well for gold amid a weaker dollar, though equities
suki.cooper@barclays.com        remained strong. The physical market has greeted the lower price environment with
                                enthusiasm: interest has started to ease but remains elevated compared with the start of the
                                year. In China, volume traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has halved over the week but
                                is still comparable to the pre-Lunar New Year buying. Indeed, the monthly rolling average is
                                still scaling record highs, while local premiums also remain high. Bar premiums across Asia
                                remain high at $3/oz in Hong Kong, a level last seen in January 2011, $3/oz in Singapore, a
                                level last seen in October 2011, and at 87.5cents/oz in Tokyo, having traded at a discount
                                for the bulk of the past year. Gold imports into China from Hong Kong reached a record
                                223.5 tonnes in March, more than doubling m/m and almost doubling the previous record
                                of 114 tonnes set in December last year. Gold exports from China to Hong Kong almost


10 May 2013                                                                                                                   15
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                              trebled m/m and quadrupled y/y to 97 tonnes, but China was still a net importer to the
                                              magnitude of 126 tonnes. Though only painting part of the picture as a proxy for demand,
                                              the data continues to underscore the strength of China’s demand before the price drop.
                                              Viewed alongside the volume traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and local premiums,
                                              there is little sign of demand slowing in China. Appetite to buy in India still persists, but
                                              volumes have slowed. Reuters has cited local dealers as saying there would be symbolic
                                              purchases for the Akshaya Tritiya festival, but demand had slowed otherwise.

                                              In contrast, gold ETP outflows have shown little sign of slowing. Gold holdings are down 37
                                              tonnes for the month-to-date, following a record outflow of 182 tonnes in April. Outflows
                                              have reached 379 tonnes for the year-to-date, and total holdings are at their lowest since
                                              October 2011, now at 2380 tonnes. While physical demand has shown signs of slowing,
                                              ETP flows have not – this poses downside risk in the near term, in our view. The World Gold
                                              Council Gold Demand Trends report due for release next week will cover Q1 13 and, thus,
                                              not the demand response to lower prices; however, in the past, China’s strongest quarterly
                                              demand was posted in Q1 12 at 255 tonnes, and India at 317 tonnes in Q2 07.

                                              Market focus will shift to the PGMs next week in light of Platinum Week (see this week’s
                                              focus). Much of the market attention has been on the supply side and Anglo American
                                              Platinum’s revised restructuring. The delay in implementation and the revised proposal
                                              reduces our original estimate for production removed by approximately half from 217koz
                                              for 2013. But even with the scaled back closures our platinum balance still delivers a deficit
                                              for the full year. Given the upcoming wage negotiations, the risk of supply disruptions
                                              remains high. Although we do not expect losses to the magnitude suffered last year, the
                                              presence of AMCU at the negotiation table poses the potential to tighten the market should
                                              industrial action occur. Indeed Lonmin has highlighted that the AMCU now represents 70%
                                              of its workforce (Reuters) as workers have switched from NUM, beginning at less than 10%
                                              at the start of last year. Lonmin is in the process of finalising an agreement with the unions
                                              to start negotiations. Anglo American Platinum announced today job losses would be
                                              scaled back from the initial proposal of 14,000 down to 6,000. The revised production
                                              guidance is 100koz higher at 2.2Moz - 2.4Moz, with a reduction in headline capacity now
                                              placed at 250koz in 2013, and Khuseleka 1 now set to remain operational. The demand
                                              picture continues to look weak but growth in investment demand has helped to partially
                                              offset this.



FIGURE 3                                                                    FIGURE 4
Platinum ETP inflows exceed 275koz YTD                                      Gold imports into China from Hong Kong hit record high
 250                                                                        150           Gold imports to China from Hong Kong            250
               Flows into physical platinum ETPs (koz)
                                                                                          (tonnes, RHS)
 200                                                                                      SGE trading volume (tonnes, LHS)
                                                                            125                                                           200
 150
                                                                            100                                                           150
 100

  50                                                                         75                                                           100

    0
                                                                             50                                                           50
 -50
                                                                             25                                                            0
-100
                                                                               Mar-11          Sep-11        Mar-12         Sep-12   Mar-13
    May-11           Nov-11         May-12          Nov-12      May-13

Source: ETP issuers, Bloomberg, Barclays Research                           Source: Hong Kong Customs, Reuters, Barclays Research


10 May 2013                                                                                                                                    16
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


Base metals LME cash prices
FIGURE 5                                                       FIGURE 6
Aluminium ($/t)                                                Copper ($/t)
 2,200                                                          8,500


 2,100                                                          8,100


 2,000                                                          7,700


 1,900                                                          7,300


 1,800                                                          6,900


 1,700                                                          6,500
     May-12         Aug-12          Nov-12   Feb-13   May-13        May-12         Aug-12          Nov-12    Feb-13    May-13

Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research                              Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research



FIGURE 7                                                       FIGURE 8
Lead ($/t)                                                     Nickel ($/t)
 2,600                                                          20,000


 2,400
                                                                18,500

 2,200
                                                                17,000
 2,000

                                                                15,500
 1,800


 1,600                                                          14,000
     May-12         Aug-12          Nov-12   Feb-13   May-13         May-12         Aug-12          Nov-12    Feb-13   May-13
Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research                              Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research



FIGURE 9                                                       FIGURE 10
Tin ($/t)                                                      Zinc ($/t)
26,000                                                         2,300


24,000
                                                               2,150

22,000
                                                               2,000
20,000

                                                               1,850
18,000


16,000                                                         1,700
     May-12          Aug-12         Nov-12   Feb-13   May-13       May-12         Aug-12           Nov-12    Feb-13    May-13
Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research                              Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research


10 May 2013                                                                                                                     17
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


Precious metals prices and ETP holdings
FIGURE 11                                                                   FIGURE 12
Gold ($/oz)                                                                 Silver ($/oz)
 1,800                                                                             37


                                                                                   34
 1,700

                                                                                   31
 1,600
                                                                                   28

 1,500
                                                                                   25

 1,400                                                                             22


 1,300                                                                             19
     May-12          Aug-12         Nov-12           Feb-13     May-13              May-12      Aug-12           Nov-12   Feb-13        May-13
Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research                                           Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research


FIGURE 13                                                                   FIGURE 14
Platinum ($/oz)                                                             Palladium ($/oz)
 1,800                                                                            800


 1,700
                                                                                  725

 1,600
                                                                                  650

 1,500

                                                                                  575
 1,400


 1,300                                                                            500
     May-12          Aug-12         Nov-12           Feb-13     May-13              May-12      Aug-12           Nov-12   Feb-13        May-13

Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research                                           Source: EcoWin, Barclays Research


FIGURE 15
ETP holdings (8 May 2013)
Physical ETPs                          Weekly change              Month-to-date change         Year-to-date change          Total holdings

Gold (tonnes)                                -30.4                        -37.4                         -379.4                     2,381
  Open end funds                             -30.4                        -37.4                         -397.4                     2,256
  SPDR (GLD)                                 -23.8                        -27.1                         -299.4                     1,051
Silver (tonnes)                              -18.8                        -18.8                          567.6                     20,042
  Open end funds                             -18.8                        -18.8                          567.6                     16,017
  iShares US                                 -21.1                        -21.1                          346.4                     10,431
Platinum (ounces)                           186,691                      197,432                       277,411                2,073,707
  Open end funds                            186,691                      197,432                       262,624                1,991,420
  US ETF Securities                           -257                        -257                          47,727                 548,791
Palladium (ounces)                           -6,958                      -14,704                       216,702                2,401,233
  Open end funds                             -6,958                      -14,704                       176,258                2,213,289
  US ETF Securities                          9,442                        9,442                         81,579                 793,942
Source: Various issuer websites, Bloomberg, Barclays Research


10 May 2013                                                                                                                                      18
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


FOCUS: PRECIOUS METALS

                                              Platinum Week: PGMs set to remain in deficit
                                              We expect South Africa’s mine supply-side challenges, auto-catalyst recycling and
                                              European demand weakness to be the dominant themes of Platinum Week, but we
                                              continue to forecast both platinum and palladium markets to be in deficit this year.

Suki Cooper                                   PGM prices have stabilised recently, with platinum hovering around $1500/oz and
+1 212 526 7896                               palladium testing $700/oz ahead of Platinum Week. Johnson Matthey kicks off Platinum
suki.cooper@barclays.com                      Week with the release of its Platinum 2013 report, in which it will finalise its 2012 balances
                                              and provide price forecasts for the next six months.

                                              Given the pick-up in recycling toward the end of last year, we see scope for supply to be
                                              revised up from the preliminary estimates released in November. However, production lost
                                              in H2 12 as a result of the industrial unrest should more than offset this. We expect
                                              platinum and palladium to deliver deficits in 2013 and to remain in deficit in 2014 as the
                                              challenging mine supply backdrop overshadows the modest recovery in demand
                                              anticipated for later in the year.

                                              As well as the announcement of Amplat’s review, next week the market focus is likely to
                                              shift to implications of Euro VI and whether it can offset the weak underlying auto demand,
                                              and in turn whether growth in investment demand can offset this weakness and whether
                                              auto-catalyst recycling will grow unhindered (our balance currently assumes recycling
                                              growth at around 10% over the next couple of years). Although we do not expect
                                              production losses to the magnitude suffered last year, the third largest producer, Lonmin,
                                              has highlighted that the workforce representation of the more radical union, the AMCU, has
                                              risen to 70% from less than 10% at the start of last year. Furthermore, Lonmin has suffered
                                              furnace outages. Although the largest platinum producer, Anglo American Platinum, has
                                              scaled back its restructuring proposal, the strong investment demand growth has almost
                                              surpassed our original estimate of production to be removed this year of 217koz.

                                              Although the largest platinum producer, Anglo American Platinum, has delayed the
                                              announcement of its restructuring, strong investment demand growth has almost
                                              outweighed our estimate of lost production this year (217koz). The newly launched
                                              physically backed ETF in South Africa has recorded fresh demand exceeding 190koz.
                                              Collectively, platinum ETP holdings are at a fresh record high, surpassing 2Moz. Yet, the

FIGURE 1                                                                    FIGURE 2
Physical platinum ETF holdings continue to grow                             European auto demand struggles to find a turning point
2500                                                                        1200                             EU car registrations
                 Total platinum holdings in ETPs ('000 oz)
                                                                                                             12 per. Mov. Avg. (EU car registrations)
                                                                            1100
2000
                                                                            1000

1500                                                                          900

                                                                              800

1000                                                                          700

                                                                              600
 500
                                                                              500

                                                                              400
    0
                                                                                Mar-09          Mar-10          Mar-11          Mar-12         Mar-13
    Apr 07           Oct 08          Apr 10          Oct 11      May 13

Source: Various ETF issuers, Bloomberg, Barclays Research                   Source: Datastream, Barclays Research

10 May 2013                                                                                                                                         19
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


                                platinum price has yet to meaningfully break above $1500/oz, suggesting that underlying
                                fabrication demand remains weak or stock levels are healthy. Indeed, Nymex platinum
                                stocks continue to scale record highs while EU car registrations fell by 16% y/y in March.
                                Although prices have stabilised, the issues have not gone away. We believe platinum offers
                                the most upside potential in the near term given auto demand in Europe is expected to
                                decline at a slower pace in H2 13; but, more important, biennial wage negotiations are set
                                to take place over the coming weeks.




10 May 2013                                                                                                            20
Barclays | Commodities Weekly




                                Forecasts and Data




10 May 2013                                      21
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS
Barclays Research quarterly average commodity price forecasts
                                           Q1 12             Q2 12           Q3 12           Q4 12         Q1 13          Q2 13F          Q3 13F           Q4 13F
Base Metals (LME cash)
Aluminium       US$/t                      2,176              1,975           1,921           1,996        2,003           1,950            2,000           2,100
Copper          US$/t                      8,310              7,869           7,706           7,909        7,931           8,100            8,000           7,650
Lead            US$/t                      2,093              1,974           1,975           2,199        2,301           2,300            2,400           2,450
Nickel          US$/t                     19,651             17,146          16,317          16,967       17,314          16,500           16,250          17,000
Tin             US$/t                     22,941             20,565          19,275          21,560       24,125          23,500           25,000          26,000
Zinc            US$/t                      2,025              1,928           1,885           1,947        2,033           2,050            1,950           2,200
Base Metal Index^                            218                201             195             203          209             207              208             210
Precious metals
Gold            US$/oz                      1690              1611            1653            1717          1631             1350            1450            1500
Silver          US$/oz                      32.6              29.4            29.9            32.5          30.1             23.0            25.0            26.0
Platinum        US$/oz                      1604              1495            1493            1593          1628             1660            1710            1750
Palladium       US$/oz                       680               625             609             650           738              725             750             780
Energy
WTI             US$/bbl                       103               94              92              88             94              95              93              99
Brent           US$/bbl                       118              109             109             110            113             110             111             114
US Natural Gas US$/mmbtu                       2.5             2.4             2.9             3.5            3.5             4.0             4.0             4.1
Note: ^Economist Intelligence Unit weight. Base metals prices are LME cash. Precious metals spot prices. WTI: front month NYMEX close. Brent: front month IPE close.
US natural gas: NYMEX front month close.
Source: Barclays Research


Barclays Research annual average commodity price forecasts
                                                     2008             2009        2010           2011           2012          2013F          2014F         2015F
Base Metals
Aluminium                US$/t                    2,573           1,664          2,172           2,398         2,017          2,013          2,100         2,250
Copper                   US$/t                    6,961           5,148          7,533           8,813         7,948          7,920          7,500         9,500
Lead                     US$/t                    2,093           1,721          2,146           2,399         2,060          2,363          2,450         2,600
Nickel                   US$/t                   21,115          14,604         21,809          22,853        17,520         16,766         18,000        20,000
Tin                      US$/t                   18,500          13,579         20,407          26,063        21,085         24,656         26,000        26,000
Zinc                     US$/t                    1,876           1,654          2,158           2,191         1,946          2,058          2,700         2,800
Base Metal Index^                                 204.3           146.2            210             240           204            209            212           243
Precious Metals
Gold                     US$/oz                        872          972           1,226          1,571         1,668          1,483           1,450         1,375
Silver                   US$/oz                       15.0         14.6            20.2           35.2          31.1           26.0            24.0            21
Platinum                 US$/oz                      1,569        1,205           1,610          1,716         1,547          1,687           1,750         1,875
Palladium                US$/oz                        348          262             526            729           641            748             795           900
Energy
WTI                      US$/bbl                      99.7              62              80          95             94             95            117           120
Brent                    US$/bbl                      98.4              63              80         111            112            112            130           135
US Natural Gas           US$/mmbtu                    8.90            4.16            4.39        4.03           2.82           3.90           4.10          N/A
Note: ^Economist Intelligence Unit weight. Base metals prices are LME cash. Precious metals spot prices. WTI: front month NYMEX close. Brent: front month IPE close.
US natural gas: NYMEX front month close.
Source: Thomson Datastream, Barclays Research




10 May 2013                                                                                                                                                      22
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


Price forecast comparisons
                                                   Price Change              Week Ago Price Change Month Ago Price Change   Year Ago
Commodity                                                         9-May-13
                                                (%,Thurs/Thurs)                 Price    (%, M/M)      Price     (%, Y/Y)      Price
Carbon EUA            ECX       Euro/tonne               23.0%        3.74        3.04      -20.4%         4.7    -44.2%          6.7
Rubber                TOCOM     Y/kg                      7.6%       265.3     246.50         0.8%      263.1      -4.2%       277.0
Copper                LME       $/tonne                   7.4%       7,354       6,848       -3.6%      7,630      -8.7%       8,054
Tin                   LME       $/tonne                   5.3%      20,725     19,675        -9.8%     22,970       0.6%      20,605
Coffee                ICE       $/lb                      4.9%        1.46        1.39        7.7%       1.35     -16.8%        1.75
Cotton                ICE       $/lb                      4.9%        0.88        0.84        3.9%       0.85       2.4%        0.86
Aluminium             LME       $/tonne                   4.2%       1,881       1,804       -1.9%      1,918      -7.8%       2,040
Nickel                LME       $/tonne                   4.1%      15,268     14,667        -5.7%     16,188     -11.1%      17,180
Gasoline              NYMEX     $/gallon                  3.9%        2.89        2.78       -2.0%       2.94      -4.6%        3.02
Lead                  LME       $/tonne                   3.8%       2,012       1,939       -3.6%      2,087      -2.8%       2,069
Soybeans              CBOT      $/bushel                  3.5%       14.91       14.41        6.9%      13.96       4.4%       14.28
Palladium             NYMEX     $/oz                      3.1%       715.0       693.3       -2.4%      732.5      16.6%       613.4
Zinc                  LME       $/tonne                   2.9%       1,872       1,819       -2.5%      1,921      -3.7%       1,943
Heating Oil           NYMEX     $/gallon                  2.9%        2.94        2.85       -0.7%       2.96      -2.0%        3.00
Gas Oil               ICE       $/tonne                   2.8%       871.3       847.9       -2.0%      888.8      -9.6%       963.5
Crude Oil             NYMEX     $/barrel                  2.6%       96.41       94.00        2.4%      94.18      -0.4%       96.84
Aluminium Alloy       LME       $/tonne                   2.5%       1,790       1,746       -0.9%      1,806      -8.0%       1,945
Rough Rice            CBOT      $/bushel                  1.7%       15.29       15.03       -2.7%       15.7       0.8%        15.2
Crude Oil             ICE       $/barrel                  1.5%      104.46     102.87        -1.5%     106.04      -7.7%      113.15
Platinum              NYMEX     $/oz                      1.1%       1,516       1,500       -2.3%      1,552       1.2%       1,498
Lean Hogs             CME       $/lb                      0.8%        0.92        0.91       14.0%       0.81      14.9%        0.80
Coal API4             ICE       $/tonne                   0.6%       81.70       81.25       -1.7%       83.1     -15.8%        97.0
Silver                OTC       $/oz                      0.4%       23.95       23.87      -14.3%      27.95     -18.1%       29.25
UK Natural Gas        ICE       £/therm                   0.3%        0.76        0.75       -5.1%         0.8      6.2%          0.7
Coal API2             ICE       $/tonne                   0.2%       83.80       83.60        1.5%       82.6      -6.6%        89.8
Gold                  OTC       $/oz                      0.1%     1,469.7     1,468.4       -7.4%    1,587.1      -7.8%     1,594.1
Barley                WCE       C$/tonne                  0.0%      273.50     273.50         0.0%      273.5      13.0%       242.0
Freight Capesize      OTC       $/tonne                   0.0%        6.75        6.75       -1.2%         6.8    -32.5%        10.0
Azuki Beans           TGE       JPY/30kg                  0.0%      12,290     12,290         0.3%     12,250      -7.3%      13,260
Carbon CER            ECX       Euro/tonne                0.0%        0.01        0.01      -95.5%         0.2    -99.7%          3.7
Wheat                 CBOT      $/bushel                 -0.3%        7.16        7.19        1.1%       7.09      21.1%        5.91
Corn                  CBOT      $/bushel                 -0.4%        6.95        6.98        7.8%       6.44       8.3%        6.41
UK Power              APX       Euro/MWh                 -0.4%       47.53       47.74       -6.4%       50.8       7.3%        44.3
Sugar                 ICE       $/lb                     -0.7%        0.17        0.18       -1.4%       0.18     -14.3%        0.20
Oats                  CBOT      $/bushel                 -0.8%        4.13        4.16       12.4%         3.7     24.4%          3.3
German Power          EEX       Euro/MWh                 -1.0%       32.45       32.77       -6.6%       34.8     -20.3%        40.7
US Natural Gas        NYMEX     $/mmbtu                  -1.2%        3.98        4.03       -0.7%       4.01      61.8%        2.46
Wheat                 KBOT      $/bushel                 -1.3%        7.92        8.02        6.1%       7.47      30.3%        6.08
Live Cattle           CME       $/lb                     -2.5%        1.21        1.24       35.4%       0.89       3.4%        1.17
Lumber                CME       $/1000 ft                -2.6%      328.50     337.20       -12.5%      375.4      11.8%       293.8
Cocoa                 ICE       $/tonne                  -3.2%       2,336       2,414        5.3%      2,219      -1.2%       2,364
Feeder Cattle         CME       $/lb                     -3.4%        1.36        1.41       -4.8%       1.43      -9.9%        1.51
Source: Thomson Datastream, Barclays Research




10 May 2013                                                                                                                        23
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

FIGURE 1
Key recommendations
                                                                                                           Current price                               Gain/Loss
                                                     Contract        Entry Date        Entry price                                  Unit
                                                                                                           (8-May-2013)                            $              %
Open trades
Long NYMEX platinum                              Jan-14     30/04/2013      1511.40            1485.50            $/oz      -25.90       -1.7%
Rationale: We continue to forecast the platinum market to remain in deficit this year and the rising workforce representation of AMCU is likely to
lead to greater scope for industrial unrest during the biennial wage negotiations.
Short 3.5% fuel oil Rotterdam-Brent crack
                                                May-13      30/04/2013       -10.79             -11.18           $/bbl       -0.39        3.6%
spread
Rationale: We recommend shorting high sulphur fuel oil in the OTC market on persistent oversupply meeting waning demand, as the world moves
to burn less fuel oil for power generation and where bunker sales remain low amid relatively high inventories.
Long NYMEX palladium                            Dec-13      18/01/2013       724.80             683.80            $/oz      -41.00       -5.7%
Rationale: We see much better prospects in PGM markets, predicated on a rebound in Chinese palladium imports against the backdrop of a
second successive year in deficit for the palladium market.
Long Brent crude oil                        Dec-15       27/01/2011         98.15             94.74            $/bbl     -3.41       -3.5%
Rationale: We see the medium-term crude oil price risks as being to the upside mainly due to strong EM demand growth, lack of spare capacity
and constraints on non-OPEC supply. We expect far-forward prices to benefit, with our 2015 price forecast for Brent pegged at $135/bbl.
Note: From January 2013, a stop loss of -7.5% and a profit target of 15% will be applied to all trades. Trades will automatically be shut if either of these thresholds is
breached, unless there are exceptional circumstances that suggest the trade should be kept open.
Source: Reuters, Barclays Research




10 May 2013                                                                                                                                                              24
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


FIGURE 2
Closed trades
                                                                                                                                                        Gain/Loss
Closed Trades                                         Contract          Entry Date           Exit Date        Entry price     Exit price     Unit
                                                                                                                                                       $        %
Directional trades
Short LME nickel                        May-13                        15/02/2013          21/03/2013          18380.00 16872.00    $/t   1508.00                8.2%
Short LME aluminium                     Mar-13                        01/10/2012          18/03/2013           2144.3   1893.5    $/oz     250.8              11.7%
Long COMEX gold                          Feb-13                       01/10/2012          22/01/2013           1785.5   1693.2    $/oz     -92.3               -5.2%
Long NYMEX palladium                     Dec-12                       29/02/2012          31/12/2012             710      703     $/oz       -7                -0.9%
Long LME copper                          Dec-12                       17/05/2012          24/08/2012            7639     7642      $/t    -1373               -14.3%
Long LME aluminium                       Dec-15                       29/03/2011          20/07/2012            2884     2193      $/t    -690.8              -24.0%
Short US nat gas Henry Hub               Oct-13                       21/11/2011          20/12/2011             4.4      4.1   $/mmbtu      0.3                6.6%
Long COMEX gold**                        Dec-12                       21/11/2011          20/12/2011            1694     1628     $/oz      -66                29.3%
Long Carbon EUA                          Dec-11                       24/02/2011          30/06/2011            15.4      13.5     €/t      -1.9              -12.1%
Long UK natural gas                      Q3-11                        29/03/2011          26/05/2011            63.9      58.5   p/therm    -5.4               -8.5%
Long LME nickel                          Jun-11                       24/02/2011          26/05/2011           27501    22821      $/t    -4680               -17.0%
Long European delivered coal (API2)**    Apr-11                       27/01/2011          29/03/2011            114.5    125.7     $/t       16               14.4%
Short Comex silver                       Dec-11                       27/01/2011          24/02/2011            27.1      33.1    $/oz       -6               -22.4%
Long LME copper                          Jun-11                       22/09/2010          24/02/2011           7833.0    9505      $/t     1672               21.3%
Short UK natural gas                  Summer 2011                     19/10/2010          27/01/2011            47.2      52.5   p/therm     -5               -11.3%
Long NYMEX crude oil**                   Dec-11                       19/10/2010          27/01/2011            84.8      99.3    c/bbl    12.1               14.2%
Short US natural gas                     Dec-11                       13/08/2010          26/11/2010            5.54     5.12   $/mmbtu    0.43                 7.7%
Long LME lead                            Dec-10                       21/06/2010          13/08/2010            1851     2065      $/t      214                11.6%
Long LME copper**                        Sep-10                       10/12/2009          13/08/2010            7062     7143      $/t      345                 5.0%
Long NYMEX palladium                     Jun-10                       22/02/2010          11/05/2010             444      532     $/oz       88                19.8%
Long LME nickel                          Jun-10                       10/12/2009          18/03/2010           16331    22760      $/t     6429                39.4%
Long NYMEX crude oil                    May-10                        10/12/2009          18/02/2010            75.4      79.1     $/b       3.7                4.9%
Spread trades
US natural gas spread widening                                        21/03/2013          26/03/2013             0.095          0.086      $/mmbtu    -0.01     -
Short front month Brent time spread                                   15/02/2013          08/03/2013              90.0           76.0         c/b     14.0      -
Short US gasoline crack spread                                        18/01/2013          24/01/2013              27.8           30.0         $/b      -2.2     -
UK nat gas spread widening                                            24/08/2012          29/11/2012              0.01          0.58        p/therm   0.57      -
Fuel oil versus gasoil differentials                                  29/02/2012          01/10/2012            -30.54         -30.01         $/b     0.54      -
Short European gasoil crack spreads                                   25/06/2012          20/07/2012              0.50          -0.41         $/b     0.91      -
US gasoline (RBOB) spread tightening                                  20/12/2011          17/05/2012              3.0            3.8          $/b      0.9      -
Copper spreads tightening                                             21/11/2011          21/03/2012             -17.3          14.5          $/t     14.0      -
WTI contango widening                                                 19/07/2011          29/02/2012              0.38           0.41         $/b     0.03      -
Natural gas spread widening                                           15/12/2010          30/06/2011              0.63           0.41      $/mmbtu    -0.22     -
Crude oil spread tightening**                                         20/04/2011          26/05/2011             -0.36          -0.37         $/b     0.34      -
Gasoil spread tightening                                              22/09/2010          19/10/2010             -16.8          -15.3         $/t     1.50      -
US Henry Hub nat gas                                                  21/06/2010          13/08/2010              0.66          0.65       $/mmbtu    0.01      -
Note: Entry and exit prices reference closing prices on the day of publication;**these trades include gains/losses from previous trades.
Source: Reuters, Barclays Research




10 May 2013                                                                                                                                                         25
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


KEY DATA RELEASES
• In China, the State Council executive meeting held on 6 May unveiled details of the government’s reform agenda in 2013.
   Nine priorities were highlighted, including public sector, fiscal, financial, railway/private capital, resource pricing, social
   welfare system, quality urbanisation, agriculture modernisation, and innovation. Our economists think the carefully chosen
   content, wording, and ordering of the reforms suggest the new government is fully aware of public discontent, that it
   understands the urgency and priority of needed reforms, and that it plans to push forward in a pragmatic manner. Our
   economists note that in many cases, operational details are still being worked out (for more details, see China unveils its 2013
   reform agenda - a step forward).

• Our economists lowered their full-year CPI inflation forecast to 3.0% from the 3.2% projected since December, in view of
   lower-than-expected food inflation and subdued non-food inflation YTD. April CPI inflation was 2.4% y/y, largely in line with
   consensus and up from 2.1% in March. Meanwhile, PPI deflation worsened to -2.6% y/y from -1.9% in March given a weak
   recovery, over-capacity and falling global commodity prices.

• German industrial production rose by 1.2% in March, which was better than our economists’ above-consensus forecast
   (Barclays: +0.5%, BB consensus: -0.1%). Better activity in February/March more than compensated for the disappointing
   January figures.

Monday                     Tuesday                  Wednesday                   Thursday                  Friday
06 May                     07 May                   08 May                      09 May                    10 May
UK Public Holiday          EIA Short-Term Enerrgy   Preliminary (April) China EIA Weekly Natural Gas      CFTC Data
China PMI Composite        Outlook                  Commodity Data            Storage                     SHFE Aluminium, Copper
                                                    (National Bureau of                                   and Zinc Inventory Data
                                                    Statistics)                                           OPEC Monthly Oil Market
                                                    Dept of Energy Weekly Oil                             Report
                                                    Data                                                  USDA WASDE Report
                                                    German IP

13 May                     14 May                   15 May                      16 May                    17 May
                           OECD Main Economic       Dept of Energy Weekly Oil   EIA Weekly Natural Gas    CFTC Data
                           Indicators               Data                        Storage                   SHFE Aluminium, Copper
                           German ZEW survey        US PPI                      US IP                     and Zinc Inventory Data
                                                    US Empire State Mfg Index   US CPI                    US Consumer Sentiment
                                                    US IP                       US Philly Fed Mfg Index   US Leading Indicators
                                                    Euro Area GDP Flash         Euro Area HICP


20 May                     21 May                   22 May                      23 May                    24 May
Detailed (April) China                              Dept of Energy Weekly Oil EIA Weekly Natural Gas      CFTC Data
Commodity Data out this                             Data                      Storage                     SHFE Aluminium, Copper
week (National Bureau of                            US Existing Home Sales    US New Home Sales           and Zinc Inventory Data
Statistics)                                         US FOMC Minutes                                       US Durable Goods Orders




27 May                     28 May                   29 May                      30 May                    31 May
UK & US Public Holiday                              Dept of Energy Weekly Oil EIA Weekly Natural Gas      CFTC Data
                                                    Data                      Storage                     SHFE Aluminium, Copper
                                                                              US GDP                      and Zinc Inventory Data
                                                                                                          US Chicago PMI
                                                                                                          US Consumer Sentiment
                                                                                                          Euro Area HICP Flash




10 May 2013                                                                                                                         26
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


FX FORECASTS
                                            FX forecasts                             Forecast vs outright forward

                            Spot    1m          3m          6m        1y      1m          3m           6m             1y

Emerging Asia
USD/CNY                     6.13    6.18       6.16         6.14     6.08    -0.1%       -0.4%       -0.8%          -2.0%
USD/HKD                     7.76    7.76       7.76         7.76     7.76    0.0%        0.1%         0.1%          0.1%
USD/INR                 54.25      53.50      53.50        54.00    55.00    -1.9%       -2.7%       -3.3%          -4.2%
USD/IDR                 9,718      9,750      9,850        9,900    10,000   0.2%        0.7%         0.0%          -1.5%
USD/KRW                 1,091      1,105      1,095        1,090    1,080    1.1%        -0.1%       -0.9%          -2.2%
USD/LKR                125.90      126.50     127.00       128.00   128.00   -0.4%       -1.2%       -2.3%          1.5%
USD/MYR                     2.97    2.98       2.96         2.94     2.90    0.2%        -0.8%       -2.0%          -4.2%
USD/PHP                 40.83      40.50      40.00        39.50    39.00    -0.8%       -1.9%       -3.1%          -4.3%
USD/SGD                 1.230      1.250      1.250        1.240    1.230    1.7%        1.7%         0.9%          0.1%
USD/THB                 29.45      29.50      29.25        29.00    29.00    0.0%        -1.2%       -2.5%          -3.3%
USD/TWD                 29.42      29.60      29.40        29.00    28.75    -1.6%       0.4%        -1.9%          -1.2%
USD/VND                20,945      20,950     20,950       20,900   20,900   -0.3%       -1.1%       -2.6%          -4.9%
Latin America
USD/ARS                     5.22    5.26       5.41         5.63     6.28    -2.4%       -7.1%       -14.7%         -24.6%
USD/BRL                     2.00    1.95       1.95         2.00     2.00    -2.8%       -3.7%       -2.7%          -5.4%
USD/CLP                     472     472        473          473      475     -0.5%       -1.1%       -2.2%          -3.7%
USD/MXN                 11.95      12.08       11.98       11.77    11.50    0.8%        -0.5%       -2.9%          -6.5%
USD/COP                 1,830      1,840       1,833       1,817    1,800    0.2%        -0.4%       -2.5%          -4.9%
USD/PEN                     2.61    2.59       2.58         2.57     2.55    -0.7%       -1.3%       -2.0%          -3.2%
EEMEA
EUR/CZK                 25.79      25.85       26.00       26.25    26.25    0.2%        0.8%         1.8%          1.8%
EUR/HUF                     293     305        307          315      320     3.7%        3.8%         5.8%          6.3%
EUR/PLN                     4.12    4.13       4.13         4.13     4.13    -0.1%       -0.5%       -1.0%          -2.0%
EUR/RON                     4.33    4.33       4.32         4.30     4.25    -0.2%       -1.5%       -2.0%          -5.0%
USD/RUB                 31.14      31.00       31.00       31.00    31.00    -1.1%       -2.0%       -3.5%          -6.0%
BSK/RUB                 35.50      35.05       34.91       34.49    34.21    -1.9%       -3.2%       -5.8%          -9.1%
USD/TRY                     1.79    1.82       1.85         1.85     1.85    1.2%        2.3%         1.4%          -0.6%
USD/ZAR                     8.98    9.20       9.60         9.50     9.20    2.0%        5.6%         3.3%          -2.2%
USD/ILS                     3.55    3.65       3.65         3.60     3.55    2.8%        2.6%         0.9%          -0.9%
USD/EGP                     6.96    6.94       7.00         7.30     7.60    -2.2%       -4.8%       -6.1%          -10.2%
USD/UAH                     8.11    8.20       8.20         9.60     9.60    0.5%        -0.8%       12.1%          3.4%
Source: Barclays Research




10 May 2013                                                                                                                  27
Barclays | Commodities Weekly


COMMODITIES RESEARCH ANALYSTS
Barclays
5 The North Colonnade
London E14 4BB
Gayle Berry                            Afonso Campos                      Sijin Cheng                     Suki Cooper
Commodities Research                   Commodities Research               Commodities Research            Commodities Research
+44 (0)20 3134 1596                    +44 (0)20 3555 4444                +65 6308 6320                   +1 212 526 7896
gayle.berry@barclays.com               afonso.campos@barclays.com         sijin.cheng@barclays.com        suki.cooper@barclays.com
Helima Croft                           Christopher Louney                 Sha Luo                         Miswin Mahesh
Commodities Research                   Commodities Research               Commodities Research            Commodities Research
+1 212 526 0764                        +1 212 526 6721                    +44 (0)20 7773 3994             +44 (0)20 7773 4291
helima.croft@barclays.com              christopher.louney@barclays.com    sha.luo@barclays.com            miswin.mahesh@barclays.com
Kevin Norrish                          Biliana Pehlivanova                Nicholas Snowdon                Kate Tang
Commodities Research                   Commodities Research               Commodities Research            Commodities Research
+44 (0)20 7773 0369                    +1 212 526 2492                    +1 212 526 7279                 +44 (0)20 7773 0930
kevin.norrish@barclays.com             biliana.pehlivanova@barclays.com   nicholas.snowdon@barclays.com   kate.tang@barclays.com
Sudakshina Unnikrishnan                Shiyang Wang
Commodities Research                   Commodities Research
+44 (0)20 7773 3797                    +1 212 526 7464
sudakshina.unnikrishnan@barclays.com   shiyang.wang@barclays.com




10 May 2013                                                                                                                          28
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Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong. Barclays Bank PLC Frankfurt Branch distributes this material in Germany under the supervision of
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). This material is distributed in Malaysia by Barclays Capital Markets Malaysia Sdn Bhd. This
material is distributed in Brazil by Banco Barclays S.A. This material is distributed in Mexico by Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. Barclays Bank PLC in the Dubai
International Financial Centre (Registered No. 0060) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Barclays Bank PLC-DIFC Branch, may
only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA licence. Barclays Bank PLC in the UAE is regulated by the
Central Bank of the UAE and is licensed to conduct business activities as a branch of a commercial bank incorporated outside the UAE in Dubai (Licence
No.: 13/1844/2008, Registered Office: Building No. 6, Burj Dubai Business Hub, Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai City) and Abu Dhabi (Licence No.:
13/952/2008, Registered Office: Al Jazira Towers, Hamdan Street, PO Box 2734, Abu Dhabi). Barclays Bank PLC in the Qatar Financial Centre (Registered
No. 00018) is authorised by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA). Barclays Bank PLC-QFC Branch may only undertake the regulated
activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA licence. Principal place of business in Qatar: Qatar Financial Centre, Office 1002, 10th Floor, QFC
Tower, Diplomatic Area, West Bay, PO Box 15891, Doha, Qatar. This material is distributed in Dubai, the UAE and Qatar by Barclays Bank PLC. Related
financial products or services are only available to Professional Clients as defined by the DFSA, and Business Customers as defined by the QFCRA. This
material is distributed in Saudi Arabia by Barclays Saudi Arabia ('BSA'). It is not the intention of the Publication to be used or deemed as recommendation,
option or advice for any action (s) that may take place in future. Barclays Saudi Arabia is a Closed Joint Stock Company, (CMA License No. 09141-37).
Registered office Al Faisaliah Tower | Level 18 | Riyadh 11311 | Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Authorised and regulated by the Capital Market Authority,
Commercial Registration Number: 1010283024. This material is distributed in Russia by OOO Barclays Capital, affiliated company of Barclays Bank PLC,
registered and regulated in Russia by the FSFM. Broker License #177-11850-100000; Dealer License #177-11855-010000. Registered address in Russia:
125047 Moscow, 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya str. 21. This material is distributed in India by Barclays Bank PLC, India Branch. This material is distributed in
Singapore by the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, a bank licensed in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. For matters in connection
with this report, recipients in Singapore may contact the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, whose registered address is One Raffles Quay Level 28,
South Tower, Singapore 048583. Barclays Bank PLC, Australia Branch (ARBN 062 449 585, AFSL 246617) is distributing this material in Australia. It is
directed at 'wholesale clients' as defined by Australian Corporations Act 2001.

				
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