SETTI PALLADINO Improvement of the dairy and beef module by renata.vivien1

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									  CAPRI                                                                     CAPRI




Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG   Elasticity   Next steps




                         Improvement of 
                       the Dairy and Beef 
                           sub-module 




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                                 MODELISATION                               CAPRI




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Livestock supply flows for EU countries and regions 
(90-99): improvement of the information system for all 
the animals activities, inclusion of COMEXT database.


Livestock net domestic production


Split up yields in low and high (MEAT, MILK)


Definition of supply elasticities for livestock

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    NEW CRONOS                     REGIO            COMEXT         EXPERT DATA




                                     COMEXT.GMS
                                CORRECT NEW CRONOS  
                              MATCH COMEXT-NEW CRONOS




                                        FLOW_ANIM.GMS



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                                 MODELISATION                                      CAPRI




Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG          Elasticity   Next steps




                               CAFF



                              CAMF

    COWS                                                     HEIR                COWS
                              CAFR
                                                             HEIF

                              CAMR                           BULF




                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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                                 MODELISATION                                      CAPRI




Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG          Elasticity   Next steps




                               CAFF



                              CAMF

    COWS                                                     HEIR                COWS
                              CAFR
               •LEVL = Herd Size t-1                         HEIF

               •Replacement and Discarded RATES
                          CAMR                               BULF

               •Male and Female Calves Production (REGIO Herd Size)

               •Same coefficients for DCOW and SCOW
                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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                               CAFF



                              CAMF

    COWS                                              HEIR
                      •GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0) COWS
                          CAFR
                      •GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt
                                                      HEIF
                      •LEVLt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt + STCF t (If > 0)
                           CAMR                     BULF
                      •NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)

                      •Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too) 

                        t
                      •Estimation of NETF                    t+1                  t+2
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                               CAFF



                              CAMF

    COWS                                              HEIR                 COWS
                      •GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0)
                          CAFR
                      •GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt
                                                   HEIF

                           t = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt + STCFt (If > 0)
                      •LEVLCAMR                    BULF

                      •NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)

                      •Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too) 
                         t                                   t+1                  t+2
                      •Estimation of NETF
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                            MODELISATION
                      •GROF,RCAL  = YBUL + YHEI + EXPL  – IMPL  + STCF (If >0)
                                        t         t        t        t           t     t 
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Introduction         Model            LH Yields        MS - REG          Elasticity    Next steps
                      •GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,FCALt

                      •LEVLt = GROF,YHEIt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)
                           CAFF
                      •NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)

                      •Redefine GROF
                           CAMF
                      •Estimation of NETF
    COWS                                                          HEIR                COWS
                              CAFR
                                                                  HEIF

                              CAMR                                BULF




                         t                                         t+1                     t+2
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Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG          Elasticity   Next steps
                      •GROF,RCALt = YBULt + YHEIt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If >0)

                      •GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,MCALt
                           CAFF
                      •LEVLt = GROF,YBULt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)

                      •NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)
                           CAMF

    COWS              •Redefine GROF
                                                             HEIR                COWS
                      •Estimation of NETF
                            CAFR
                                                             HEIF

                              CAMR                           BULF




                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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                               CAFF



                              CAMF

    COWS                                                     HEIR                COWS
                              CAFR
                                                             HEIF

      •LEVLt = YCOWt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)
                       CAMR                                  BULF

      •GROFt = LEVLt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If <0)


                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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                               CAFF



                              CAMF

    COWS                                                     HEIR                COWS
                              CAFR
                                                             HEIF

                              CAMR                           BULF


      •LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt
                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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                               CAFF



                       CAMF
     •LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt
    COWS                                                     HEIR                COWS
                              CAFR
                                                             HEIF

                              CAMR                           BULF




                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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 FATTENING PROCESSES: beef, heifers, sheep & pigs


  HERD DIMENSION                              MEAT    MODEL

          SLGH                                          Young
                                                       animals
LEVL = SLGH -
 IMPL + EXPL
                                                     O coefficient
LEVW = (SLGH - IMPL) GROF = SLGT                     (meat yield),
 + IMPL * α + EXPL * β - IMPT + EXPT                 I coefficient
                                                       (feed, …),
                                                      nutrients &
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Introduction          Model           LH Yields       MS - REG     Elasticity     Next steps




               LEVL           =    SLGH           -      IMPL      +       EXPL




                                                       IMPL x             EXPL x 
                                   SLGH
                                                       (FINW -           (EXWT -
               LEVW           =         -         +    IMWT)       +      INIW)
                                    IMPL              / (FINW -         / (FINW -
                                                         INIW)             INIW)

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               SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS                                 CAPRI




Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG   Elasticity   Next steps




   Estimation of activity level and yields (light and 
   heavy final weights) for adult cattle

   Light and heavy final weights depend on genetics 
   and production system

   Scarce information and similar probabilities

   Engineering and production system information:  
   final weights (min-max), stock density, daily growth, 
   and herd composition
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               SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS                                             CAPRI




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                                                                 STOCK DENSITY
               FINAL WEIGHTS
                                                                 DAILY GROWTH
                                                               HERD COMPOSITION


               Support Points                                  A Priori Probabilities




                                   Max - ∑i pi ln (pi / qi)

                          where:
                          i: number of support points
                          p: posterior probabilities
                          q: a priori probabilities
                          sum of pi and sum of qi equal to one

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                   Max H(p) = - ∑i ∑n pi,n ln (pi,n / qi,n)
                    p
                    
                   s.t.
                   ∑n SLGHn,m E[MEATn] = SLGTm
                   E[MEATn] = ∑i SMEATi,n pi,n
                   ∑n SLGHn,m = SLGHm
                   ∑n IMPLn,m = IMPLm
                   ∑n EXPLn,m = EXPLm
                   SLGHn = GROF.HEADn + PIMLn – PEXLn + ADJn

where:
n: number of adult cattle sub-categories (light and heavy final weight)
m: number of adult cattle categories (beef and heifers)
MEAT: estimated parameter (final carcass weight)
SMEAT: possible outcomes (support points)
ADJ: shift factor between adult cattle sub-categories
sum of pi and sum of qi equal to one
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                               CAFF



                              CAMF
                                                             HEIR                COWS
    COWS

                              CAFR                           HEIL

                                                             HEIH

                              CAMR                           BEFL

                                                             BEFH


                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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                               RESULTS FOR BEFH AND BEFL




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                               CAFF



                              CAMF
                                                             HEIR                COWS
    COWS

                             CAFR-L                          HEIL

                             CAFR-H                          HEIH

                             CAMR-L                          BEFL

                             CAMR-H                          BEFH


                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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Split up male and female calves for rearing into light and heavy weight ones:
CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAFR-H, CAMR-L, CAMR-H, CAFR. 


A four stages system to assign calves to cows:


DCOW-HIGH-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAMR-L, CAFR

DCOW-LOW-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR

SCOW: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR



The gross male-female calves production, and the cows replacement rate 
are respected. 

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                               CAFF



                              CAMF
  DCOW-L                                                     HEIR                COWS
   COWS
  DCOW-H
   SCOW
                             CAFR-L                          HEIL

                             CAFR-H                          HEIH

                             CAMR-L                          BEFL

                             CAMR-H                          BEFH


      Use the detailed calves production and the number of calves per cow 
                         t                                    t+1                  t+2
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                      DCOL.MILK = DCOW.MILK x 0.6
       DCOH.MILK = (GROF.MILK - DCOL.MILK * DCOL.LEVL) / DCOH.LEVL 

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                        FROM MS TO REGIONS                                           CAPRI




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  Use MS reproductive coefficients 

  Estimate the regional trade: heads and weights 

  Estimate the regional LEVL according to production 
  system:
                             FPMS,i : BREDMS,i = FPRU,i : BREDRU,i 

  where:
  MS = member state
  RU = region
  i = livestock fattening activity
  FP = length of the fattening period 
  BRED = number of yearly production cycles
  LEVL = animal activity level
  HERD = herd size at the end of the year
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                          FROM MS TO REGIONS                                   CAPRI




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Beef activity level (.000 heads) and 
yields (carcass weight, kg / head)    




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                         SUPPLY ELASTICITIES                                CAPRI




Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG   Elasticity   Next steps



  MEAT and MILK SUPPLY PRICE ELASTICITY:
  LITERATURE SEARCH

  DIFFERENT SUPPLY FUNCTIONS FORMS, USUALLY 
  LINEAR (OLS)

  - Tryfos: slaughtered heads in function of current livestock
  herd size, expected prices and feed costs;
  - Nerlove and Fornari: supply meat (beef & heifers) in
  function of: final stocks, current and future prices valued with
  quasi-rational expectation;
  - Moro and Canali: explanatory variables producer prices
  and feed cost
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                         SUPPLY ELASTICITIES                                CAPRI




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  • OWN ESTIMATIONS: range of LT & ST elasticity 
    through OLS linear regression


  • TIME SERIES: FAOSTAT yearly data           
    (EUROSTAT - CAPRI: dairy cows and price deflator)


  • 4 LIVESTOCK
  • 5 COUNTRIES: same functional form
  • 2 FORMS tested for cattle and pork

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                         SUPPLY ELASTICITIES                                   CAPRI




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                    SUPPLY ELASTICITY CATTLE, PORK

                                               model a)

           LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et
                                               model b)

                         ln(LEVL)t= a + bt ln(PRIC)t-1+ et
      where :
      LEVL = slaughtered heads
      HERD = herd size at the end of the year
      PRIC = deflated meat production price
      NTRD = animal net trade flow (import - export)

      et ~N(0, 1)
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                         SUPPLY ELASTICITIES                                CAPRI




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                     SUPPLY ELASTICITY DAIRY COWS


           LEVL t = a + b1tYILDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et


      where :
      LEVL = herd size (Eurostat, CAPRI)
      YILD = production yield (Eurostat, CAPRI)
      PRIC = deflated milk production price
      NTRD = milk net trade  (import – export)
      et ~N(0, 1)
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                         SUPPLY ELASTICITIES                                CAPRI




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                             SUPPLY ELASTICITY SHEEP



                   LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 +  et

      where :
      LEVL = slaughtered heads
      HERD = herd size at the end of the year
      PRIC = deflated meat production price
      et ~N(0, 1)


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                         SUPPLY ELASTICITIES                                CAPRI




Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG   Elasticity   Next steps




                                ELASTICITY MODEL (a)




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                         SUPPLY ELASTICITIES                                CAPRI




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                  COMPARISON MODEL (a) – MODEL (b)
                    CATTLE




                      PORK




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                               FURTHER STEPS                                CAPRI




Introduction         Model            LH Yields   MS - REG   Elasticity   Next steps




  • Livestock statistics: cover gaps and correct bugs 

  • LEVW for male and female rearing calves 

  • STCF for all the animals categories 

  • CE: import / export weights for light and heavy cattle

  • Availability of official statistics on regional meat

  • Elasticities: comparison with other models results

     CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

								
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